Wimbledon Mens Draw Analysis: Federer is the Man
Posted on June 19, 2004
 With only Andre Agassi ("hip injury") and Gaston Gaudio ("ankle/I hate clay") missing from the Top 20 rankings, a highly-anticipated Wimbledon kicks off Monday, with Brit favorite Tim Henman still trying to shake the clay off his shoes after a Roland Garros semifinal, and last year's runner-up Mark Philippoussis simply trying to shake the blues after a 8-13 win-loss this year.
Even after an early loss at Queen's, Henman is expected to be on-mark after an exemplary French Open performance and some extra time to make the grass transition. Dealt a nice draw, Henman will try not to look ahead to a semifinal match-up with No. 2 seed Andy Roddick. But A-Rod will have to work his way through a tough draw, while defending champ Roger Federer has been given time to gain momentum with an easier road.
This marks the first time since 1997 that Pete Sampras nor Andre Agassi appear at a Wimbledon, and it remains to be seen which of the favored new guard step up to fill the void.
Can Federer make it two in a row? Whose cuisine will reign supreme? Here is a look at the four sections of the draw:
Top Quarter
Seeds: (1)Roger Federer, (7)Lleyton Hewitt, (9)Carlos Moya, (13)Paradorn "The Thai Fighter" Srichaphan, (18)Feliciano "F-Lo" Lopez, (19)Marat Safin, (29)Nicolas Kiefer, (31)Mikhail Youzhny
Floaters: "Dr." Ivo Karlovic, Goran Ivanisevic, Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, Thomas Johansson
The toughest section of the draw is at the top, with the defending champ Federer, former champ Hewitt, former champ Ivanisevic, and former No. 1s Carlos Moya (playing Wimbledon for the first time since 2001) and Marat Safin. Club Fed has a sweet draw with his first possible test coming in the third round against the erratic (29)Kiefer, who has beaten him on grass before, with a 3-3 career match-up. Hewitt could have his game tested in an opener against "Tuna" Melzer who has played him close in both their meetings, before another tough second-rounder against Irakli "Freak Show" Labadze who will hold the advantage of firepower over the former No. 1 Aussie. (9)Moya will open against a qualifier, always testy on the grass, while other first round matches of note are (29)Kiefer vs. the grass-seasoned Swede Thomas Johansson, (13)Srichaphan vs. the giant "Dr." Ivo, and (31)Youzhny vs. Ivanisevic. Potential fourth round match-ups are (1)Federer vs. (13)Srichaphan, and (7)Hewitt vs. (19)Safin.
Second Quarter
Seeds: (3)Guillermo Coria, (6)Juan Carlos Ferrero, (10)Sebastien Grosjean, (14)Mardy Fish, (17)Jonas Bjorkman, (23)Max "The Beast" Mirnyi, (27)Robby Ginepri, (28)Ivan Ljubicic
Floaters: Wesley Moodie, Wayne Arthurs, Wayne Ferreira, Arnaud Clement, Jan-Mike Gambill
This would be a rough quarter, on clay. The weakest quarter of the draw will give someone like (10)Grosjean (like last year) or (14)Fish to have a breakout performance at the All-England Club. Tough opening contests for the seeds are (3)Coria against the grasscourt-savvy South African Wesley Moodie, (28)Ljubicic against veteran Wayne Ferreira, (17)Bjorkman versus "Everybody Loves" Raemon Sluiter, (23)The Beast vs. Jan-Mike, and (27)Ginepri facing a battle-hardened qualifier. Potential fourth round encounters coming out of the ugliness include (28)Ljubicic vs. (14)Fish, and (10)Grosjean against (6)Ferrero/(27)Ginepri/roll-the-dice.
Third Quarter
Seeds: (5)Tim Henman, (11)Mark Philippoussis, (16)Jiri Novak, (20)Tommy Robredo, (24)Fernando Gonzalez, (25)Dominik "The Dominator" Hrbaty, (32)Hicham Arazi, (33)Luis Horna
Floaters: Martin Verkerk, Xavier Malisse, Tommy Haas, Mario "Baby Goran" Ancic
Call this the Sergio Leone section, with The Good (Henman), The Bad (Philippoussis), and The Ugly (claycourters Robredo, Gonzalez, Horna). Were Flipper not in a horrendous slump you would have two legitimate title contenders in this section with (5)Henman. As it is, with the Australian's fragile state of mind entering the All-England Club, wouldn't be a bad idea to put $10 on the qualifier he faces in his opener. Henman was granted a cake draw with a potential tester in the athletic (32)Arazi in the third round, a stretch at best for Brave Tim. Other opening-round testers include (8)Schuettler vs. the hot-handed young Swede Robin Soderling, and (16)Novak vs. the former semifinalist X-Man. Watch out for Haas, who could easily have the draw open before him, and Baby Goran with the pullout of Nalbandian, when-after the draw really opens up. In the fourth round coming out of this section look for Verkerk/(11)Flipper, and Haas vs. Baby Goran. Yeah Verkerk is a grass rookie, but have you seen this bracket? Shudder.
Bottom Quarter
Seeds: (2)Andy Roddick, (8)Rainer Schuettler, (12)Sjeng Schalken, (15)Nicolas Massu, (21)Juan Ignacio Chela, (22)Andrei Pavel, (26)Taylor Dent, (30)Vince Spadea
Floaters: Greg Rusedski, Todd Reid, former QF Thomas Enqvist, former SF Todd Martin, Alexander "My Serve Has" Popp
The bottom quarter has a lot going on, from potential champs Roddick and Dent (were he able to play seven matches without getting injured or tiring), to unseeded giant killers Rusedski, Reid, T.Martin and Popp. Roddick has a tough road with a battle-tough qualifier in the first round, then whoover replaces the injured Nadal who has withdrawn, then a meeting with countryman (26)Dent. (8)Schuettler, who last year reached the fourth round, has the uber-tough draw with the Swedish comer Soderling, then a likely match-up with Rusedski. Other tough first-rounders are (30)Spadea vs. Aussie comer Reid, (21)Chela vs. Burgsmuller in potentially the least-watched first round match, (12)Schalken vs. the crowd-backed Brit Lee Childs, and (15)Massu vs. Popp. In the fourth round look for (8)Schuettler vs. T.Martin, and (2)Roddick vs. a qualifier. What the hell.
Former champs in the field are Federer (2003), Hewitt (2002), and Ivanisevic (2001). In doubles, Jonas Bjorkman/Todd Woodbridge will be shooting for their third consecutive title.
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