US Open 2008 Draw at a Glance
1st Quarter
Rafa vs. Qualifier in the 1st Rd.
vs. Qualifier or Rochus in the 2nd Rd.
vs. Troicki, Kholschreiber, or Horna in the 3rd Rd.
vs. Berdych or Karlovic in the Round of 16.
vs. Monfils, Nalbandian, Blake, or Mathieu in the Quarter Final
(vs. Del Potro, Murray, Ferrer, or Youzhny in the Semi)

2nd Quarter
Murray vs. Roitman in the 1st Rd.
vs. Llodra or Gabashvili in the 2nd Rd.
vs. Feliciano Lopez or Melzer in the 3rd
vs. Youzhny, Wawrinka, or Bolelli in the R16
vs. Del Potro, Ferrer, Simon, or Monaco in the Quarter

3rd Quarter
Djokovic vs. Clemant in the 1st Rd.
vs. Mahut or Qualifier, or in the 2nd Rd.
vs. Cilic or Ginepri in the 3rd Rd.
vs. Tsonga, Robredo, or Safin in the R16
vs. Gonzalez, Gulbis, or Roddick in the Quarter
(vs. Federer, Davydenko, Gasquet, Verdasco, or Tipsarevic in the Semi)

4th Quarter
Federer vs. Maximo Gonzalez in the 1st Rd.
vs. Qualifier in the 2nd Rd.
vs. Stepanek, Starace, Levine, or Guccione in the 3rd Rd.
vs. Verdasco or Andreev in the R16
vs. Davydenko, Gasquet, Tursunov, or Tipsarevic in the Quarter

Correct me if I have some entries wrong.

I am so excited that Djoko and Federer are on the same half. This should elevate the chances of Rafa-Djoko final. Finally the time has come to settle the old feud, Sean, if we get Djoko-Fed semi.

Sean,

“And that’s just to get to Novak who really has little in the way of trouble in a section which could see Marat Safin v. Jo Tsonga meeting.”

This statement in itself is contradictory, given that both these guys are in Novak’s section, and he lost to Safin at Wimbledon and he had a tight match with Tsonga at the AO. These guys are both threats, not to mention Clement in the first round and then perhaps Cilic, who took out Roddick in Canada, further along. Oh yes, and Ginepri who almost beat Roger in Cincy.

Djoko and Roddick have the toughest section.

Roger’s is relatively easy unless Richard decides to get it all together or Step pulls a worm-like performance.

Murray’s is also quite good; he should be through to the semis.

Where he’ll likely meet Rafa, although Rafa;s section has a few toughies, especially in the bottom section. But Rafa should be through to the semis also.

From a quick glance,it appears to be an easy draw for Rafa and even Murray shouldn’t be able to stop Rafa in the sf.The lower half is not easy to call.Rod needs to be at a pretty high level to get past the likes of Gulbis/Keifer/Gonza.Current form points to Nole beating Gonza in the third qf and then advancing to the final by beating whoever comes up to the sf from the last quarter.I’d have picked Fed without any hesitation as a sf candidate but his hard court form has been poor and the only silver lining is the best of five format.Radek is not the sort of player Fed likes to play and the lefty Verdasco could be handful as well.Davy will fancy his chances of registering his first win against Fed.In any case,I’d be surprised if Fed were to reach the final this year.If he does reach the sf,Nole should take care of him.
Although,I have said before that Nole was my favorite to win the open this year,I don’t see him to be as big a favorite as I had assumed earlier.Rafa continues to surprise me with his brilliant hard court results and with little rest between the sf and final,Nole needs to avoid a tough sf if he wants to subdue Rafa in the final.The best of five format and the tight scheduling could balance the scales imho.However,if I were to stick my neck out,I’d still pick Nole to win the title although I won’t be shocked by a Rafa victory.

jane:

Re: Djoko, I’m sorry, I have to agree with Sean. Novak has very little to worry about. Clement is his toughest opponent and not much to worry about for a No. 3 player. Tsonga is playing match deprived and with an injury that has kept him out for 3 months. Safin’s win at Wimby was a one off. Since then his best result was the QFs at LA. Djoko has beaten Cilic before; Roddick’s loss to Cilic was due to his back/shoulder problems.
I agree with you that Roddick has a very tough section. He’s got the toughest 4 rounds of the top 8.

Von,

No need to apologies; we’re each entitled to our opinions. I haven’t seen Tsonga or Safin play of late, but I think if Djoko has to meet Safin, that last bad loss might play on his mind. However, in best of five Novak should come through. I didn’t realize Novak had played Cilic before either.

I still think Clement is a tough opener and that Safin or Tsonga could be tough outs though.

Roddick does have a tough go, no doubt about it - especially coming off injuries. Is the p-mac coaching confirmed?

Sean Randall:

“Andy Roddick and new coach Patrick McEnroe will have their work cut out for them.”

Is it official? PMc is Roddick’s coach?

jane:

“Roddick does have a tough go, no doubt about it - especially coming off injuries.
Andy’s got some kind of luck I tell you. Almot 90 percent of his draws are tough, and for some reason he nearly always lands on Fed’s side, hence the lopsided H2H.

“Is the p-mac coaching confirmed?”

I don’t know. I asked Sean about this in my previous post. If so, I’m happy Andy has finally made a change from brother John. PMac and Andy have a pretty good rapport — they each know what to expect from the other due to Davis cup (PMac’s the Captain and has worked with Andy for about 4 years). I hope some good comes out of it if it’s true.

Von and Jane

There are a whole bunch of talented players in Djoko’s section, but Cilic and Gulbis imo are not ready to beat Djoko in best of 5 in a Slam and Tsonga is just too short on matches. I’d be surprised if he made it to play Djoko.

As for Roddick, I’d like to see him get to the quarters, but the way he’s looked this summer I think that would be a surprise. I think he might go down to Gulbis.

I have to say I’m surprised at how many people see Djoko as the favorite (not saying you two do). I know he has had some convincing wins over Rafa, but when you take into account Djoko’s fitness issues and mental toughness issues combined with the incredible wave of confidence Nadal is riding at the moment, I don’t see how Djokovic can be favored over Rafa.

I just don’t see Novak ready to win two Slams in one year, not unless he can get some luck and avoid Fed, Nadal and Murray. I’d say almost no chance that he could beat two of them on back to back days and a outside chance he could beat either Nadal (almost surely Nadal) or Murray in the final.

Rafa’s half has tougher players. However, as usual, even though there are a lot of tough players, upsets will be plenty, so if Rafa plays to his seeding (number 1, ahm), he should have no problem meeting Novak in the final.

Oh, by the way, as much as I like Feliciano Lopaz, the Spanish grass court specialist is not a threat on hard court. After Wimbledon he was either knocked out in the first, or second round, of the tournament that he played in. Murray has an easy quater.

Von,

First round, I’d not want to play an unknown or a qualifier. And in that, Rafa could have a tougher 1st Rd, and Djoko and Roddick have easier 1st round. Who’d want to play Gulbis in the 2nd Rd? Your guy could exit here, at least 30-40% chances.
In the 3rd Rd, I’d swap Cilic or Troicki (2 dark unpredictables) with Stepanek. So, Federer has easiest 3rd rd of all. Troicki can surprise Rafa; Cilic can Djoko, in the 3rd.
I don’t know what’s gonna happen between Fed vs. Verdasco and Davydenko. I hope Fed makes to the semi, plays Djoko, and proves me wr,,oops, proves me right.

I am close to making my 1st prediction: Murray will not reach semi. I am still working on it, so wait.

Shital,

I really don’t see Troicki giving Rafa any trouble whatsover. I saw his match against Del Potro in Washington and I know Victor was a bit injured but he’s just not strong enough from the baseline imo to hang with Rafa. He looks like he has a decent serve, but Rafa should win the vast majority of points that go past three or four shots.

My blockbuster pick for the tournament is Verdasco d. Federer in round 4. Yes, Fed is long overdue for an early exit at a Slam.

nadal is probably happy tsonga isn’t on his half of the draw.

sorry to say it, but i don’t even factor in roddick anymore. his time has come and gone.

i’m hoping for a fed/novak semi - only hoping that novak attempts to finish this time.

lopez did play well against fed in NYC last year - even took the first set in a heartbeat…but i agree otherwise that he’s not much of a threat.

no one seems to be mentioning del potro despite him chewing his way to 4 hardcourt titles as of late….

Jason:

“I just don’t see Novak ready to win two Slams in one year, not unless he can get some luck and avoid Fed, Nadal and Murray.”

I’m not one for speculations and/or predictions but I had hunch previously, and now that I’ve seen the draw, I’m more convinced that Fed, should or would, win the Open. I somehow can’t see Novak winning it either, but you never can tell what will happen if there are upsets.

_____________
Shital:

I think Andy got another bum wrap with the draw. He starts out against Santoro and then Gulbis, and playing match deprived with an injured back/shoulder. Although some have stated that he’s faking it. That said, I don’t know what to expect. I don’t know about facing a qualifier; usually, by the time they get to the first or second round they’re done after playing so many matches just to qualify. We’ll just have to wait and see as the mystery unravels.

andrea, we’ve been discussing del potro ad nauseum on the previous thread, hence no ones probably mentioning him here.

if fed meet djoko, djoko will finish alright; you can count on it.

Jason,
I agree with you that if Djoko plays a tough opponent like Fed in the semi that goes into a long tiresome match, I’m inclined to give Rafa edge. But if he has an easy 3-setter and Rafa a 5-setter in the semi, I will lean toward Djoko.
Actually, I want both to win all tennis fans, by playing a 5-setter in the final, going into Pro-Set. If Djoko loses earlier (i hope he does not), I’d like to see Rafa-Fed final.

Andrea,
Ref: “i’m hoping for a fed/novak semi - only hoping that novak attempts to finish this time.”

You said “hoping.” So, are you in my camp now? I will be very pleased to have you.

Ref: “no one seems to be mentioning del Potro despite him chewing his way to 4 hard court titles as of late….”

I did not mention his name, but one of the main reasons I am closing in to predict Murray’s not making to semi is he’ll have to get past del Potro, which won’t be easy.

If Djokovic manages to get beaten by someone before the SF, I think we are on the fast track to another Fed - Nadal (or should I say Nadal - Fed) final….

From this draw Fed has a high chance of winning this tourney.

but if djoko gets to the semis he is almost sure to win this tourney.

As for my man rafa nalbadian is his freddy krueger giving me nighmares

as for murray and del potro,del potro has great groundstrokes but i think his serve is poor for a tall guy and murray is one of the best returners so no show for del potro.

for me right now if we use history matching with this draw my hunches now seem to point to TMF

“no one seems to be mentioning del potro despite him chewing his way to 4 hardcourt titles as of late….

Only two of the titles were on hard courts(Washington and L.A.).The other two-admittedly much more prestigious on paper-were on clay at the gold series events in Kitzbuhel and Stuttgart.He didn’t beat any of the top players in any of these events.The only top-ten guy he beat was Rod and Rod is definitely far from his best at the moment in terms of his fitness.I don’t want to take anything away from JMDP because winning four events on the trot-no matter how weak the competition is-must be commended.However,we shouldn’t overestimate the import of these wins either.He has to work on some areas of his game and I’d be very surprised if he finds the going THAT easy at the slams or the ams events.He prefers the hard courts and has a good game but a qf will be a very good result for him imho.
JMDP is a big talent(no pun intended)and he was rated very highly by the pundits when he joined the circuit.In comparison,I don’t think the likes of Gulbis or Cilic have been hyped as much.It is good to see that Jmdp has finally started delivering albeit in the comparatively weaker events.However,it will be a while before he wins something seriously big.

Jane, Tsonga/Safin is overblown. Tsonga is playing his first tournament since who knows when, and Safin has hardly been a threat on the hard courts this summer, so no, I don’t think Novak should have any trouble. Tsonga in fact may go out in the first round, if not the second.

Von, regarding Roddick’s coach, unless I read otherwise I’ll go with it.

Again, in my mind Rafa, Novak and Roger all have a virtual walk to the quarterfinals. Once there I think Fed will have the easiest quarterfinal opponent.

Murray’s draw isn’t that difficult either.

Del Potro’s fitness and game could be put to the test early by Canas. Remember, best of 5.

Which of the top 4 seeds has the toughest draw?

This from tennis.com:

“US Open men’s draw here. Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are together in the top half, with Rafael Nadal in the bottom half with Andy Murray.”

Haha! People yet to come out of 4 and half years’ habit of calling Federer’s half as the top half. He really made the job too easy for the people dealing with the “flash news updating”.

Will be interesting to see how generous Rafa is going to be towards these slackers

As for the draw, I hope to see a Federer-Nadal final. The build up to that match is going to be insane, if they do make it through. For the 1st time ever, Nadal is more certain of a lock-up for a non-clay court final than Federer. If not Federer/Nadal, I want murray/del potro to break through. Will be interesting to see how gulbis will like the fastest grandslam on the planet right now. It was here last year that he ripped robredo apart. How about a Gulbis - Del potro final? At the least there will be a few new millionaires added to the world, if that happens.

Sean :

Your “Federer, Nadal and Williams 3 matches from a gold medal” turned out true. Not sure about venus and serena in doubles but Fed and Nad won 3 more matches since then to clinch the gold. You can check about Venus and Serena in doubles and make that headline a “sticky” post on all your future blogs!

Will you be predicting qf matches onwards (like you usually do for all grand slams?) I need to swap your predictions and enter them in a contest [I will split the brickbats/comlpliments 30-70 with you

Nadal’s Quarter is good for him because it’s filled with many guys he’s already beaten this year. He’s seeded to face Ferrer in the Semi’s but Feru hasn’t looked sharp coming in, and has the pressure of defending Semi Final points here. But a long match or two for Nadal is entirely possible. The 3rd Quarter is the most brutal. Roddick’s recent form is basically way below par, and he’s got too many tough guys to beat just to get to the Quarters - so him making it that far is a real longshot. Djokovic should get through his section of this Quarter. But as always with Djokovic, one or two prolonged matches has had a tendency to wear him down.

Federer got the easiest draw of the Top 3 Seeds. There’s no reason he shouldn’t make it to the Semis. And a match-up with Djokovic there would be THE match of the tournament. But it will have definite repercussions on the Final. A Djokovic-Federer Semi is most likely to be a BRUTAL match, probably long and draining, both physically & mentally. It’d be better for the winner if the other Semi would be just as brutal. But unless the program is changed form previous years, the Men’s Semis are played on Saturday, the day before Sunday’s Final, with no break day in between. So if the Seedings hold, the title will likely come down to who can recover the most quickly from what could well be some brutal Semis.

My favorite player right now is Nadal by a margin, but strangely enough, I want Federer to win the Open. I know it’s strange. A month ago you would not have seen me want this guy to win his 5th US Open in a row. But I feel guilty about writing him off. I’ve been a little bit too critical of him lately and feel bad.

Seeing his childlike reaction to winning the doubles with Stan (I have never seen this side of him before — it was like seeing a child after many times falling, finally learn how to ride a bike; very heartwarming! Not even winning a GS title has invoked this kind of emotion from him) made me realize just how much the gold medal–any gold medal–meant to him, and how crushing (nay, devastating) it must have felt losing to Blake in singles (and knowing that he’ll never win the singles gold medal now - 2012 is unlikely). I knew he was really hurt losing to Berdych in Athens and just missing out on a medal (coming 4th) in Sydney. This doubles gold confirmed that it really was one of his biggest goals in his career to win an olympic gold medal, and not some excuse to write off some recent tough losses.

So, perhaps out of guilt, I hope he salvages his 2008 season with the last GS of the year. But I don’t want him beating Rafa in the final. Rafa I’d like to see lose in the SF. Not that Roger knows nor cares about what I’ve said about him.

Not to worry FedEx, I will have picks for the tournament, then round by round as always, so you can bet (or not bet) accordingly.

Toughest draw is Ferrer who I don’t think will get past the Simon/Del Potro winner if he even gets that far.

As Voicemale says, if the seedings work out, having to beat Novak then Rafa to win the title is a very, very tall order on back-to-back days.

I know this is off topic, but click the link in my name. It’s a 2 minute documentary on Nadal changing from right hand to left hand. It’s surprising to note that Nadal actually can’t do anything well at all with his left hand, outside of playing tennis. He’s about as good with his left hand as I am. But it’s incredible that he’s managed to learn to play top class tennis with his off hand.

I would like to see him play an exhibition match with his right hand just to see the difference.

I just have to reiterate that I think this draw provides a huge boost to Nadal’s chances of becoming the first player in tennis history to be able to say he’s the best in the world at the same time on clay, grass and hard courts. What an amazing tennis player he is. Fed was so close to being able to say that back in ‘06 but I really think Rafa’s going to do this.

Yes,I agree the draw is good for Rafa. I don’t think Murray can beat him in 5 and Murray’s most likely to come through the other half of the top draw. Fed’s draw is also pretty good; he should get to the semis. I hope it’s a Fed vs/ Djoko semi, but we’ll see.

Here’s a write up on Pete Sampras’ book, which links some of Pete’s struggles, e.g., breaking records and such, to what Roger is going through now. http://mvn.com/tennis/

Jane,

Thanks for the link. I thought Sampras’ comment about not being able to hide when you’re No. 1 was an interesting one. It actually got me thinking more about Rafa that Fed though.

Even though Rafa’s been one step away for so long, it’ll be interesting to watch how he handles this new pressure. I’m sure he’ll embrace the challenge just as Fed did, but maybe we’ll see some cracks in his seemingly impenetrable mental armor?

He says nothing will change, and I’m sure it won’t has far as his hunger, preparation, etc., but I think the pressure is different and we’ll see if it can rattle him at all now that he can’t claim underdog status anymore.

The NY Times, and Courier, agree (with me, anyhow) that Novak’s got a tough section to get through in order to get to the final four:

“Djokovic wound up in Federer’s half of the bracket but could have a difficult time reaching the last four. The unseeded Marat Safin has the experience to create some havoc in Djokovic’s quarter of the draw, and he could face eighth-seeded Andy Roddick, who will start his tournament against Fabrice Santoro of France, in the quarterfinals. That leaves Nadal virtually free of elite competition for the first week of the tournament, which begins Monday.”

In that piece, Jane, one particular passage stood out to me: “Sampras was in and out of the number one ranking during that six year period, he reached number one 11 times in his career. Federer, in contrast, held the number one ranking for 237 consecutive weeks with no breaks to relieve the pressure and that had to take a huge toll. There might be some good news, though. After Sampras got his record sixth year number one ranking, he was free to chase his remaining slams and not worry about rankings anymore.” If Fed feels relieved of the pressure of maintaining the ranking, he should be able to focus on and achieve the one and only goal of surpassing (or reaching) Sampras’ record. I also came to the same conclusion in one of the pieces I wrote for TP. Whether he can capitalize on this state of freedom depends on how positively he channels it. He’s got plenty of time to do it, and I think he will.
Thanks for the link.

Latest x-poll:

Who is most likely NOT to win the US Open
-> Rafael Nadal
45%
-> Roger Federer
9%
-> Novak Djokovic
46%
-> Who Cares
1%
votes: 324

*Sigh*

91% of voters so far believe Fed is the most likely to win the tournament between the three.

Why am I not surprised?

I see Wertheim is picking Djokovic to win while also picking Fed to reach the semis and Nadal to make the finals.

That seems like a bold prediction to make. Basically predicting that Novak will win the tournmant by beating - on back-to-back days - two players who will probably go down as top 3 all-time in the Open Era.

Jason,

I agree. But Wertheim also picked Dementieva on the women’s side, another bold prediction.

If by chance Rafa gets knocked out early, that top half of the draw is wide open. We could see a really whacky semi-final pairing. I don’t know who will beat Rafa, but at the U.S. Open, I’m not 100% confident that he’s going to get through to the semi-finals. This is his worst surface. A hot player who hits heavy could take him out. Byrdych could be dangerous for him.
As for the bottom half, Roger has a cake-walk to the semis, and then he’s got to dual with a tough opponent in Djokovic probably. If Roger doesn’t make it to the semis, we’ll know that something is really wrong.
As for Djokovic: where is his mind at? Who knows with this big dude. Mentally, he’s a hybrid between Marat Safin and Goran Ivanisovic. I wouldn’t be shocked if he lost early, or if he ran the table and won the whole thing without dropping a set.
My prediction is on Roger. He’s got the easy draw to the semis. He shouldn’t drop a set before semi-final Saturday. He’ll get a chance to play into form well rested, and when the chips are down, he’s money. Djokovic is a head-case who is overpsyched right now because so many picked him as Roger’s heir. Nadal on a great roll, but he’s just too vulnerable on hard-courts.
Prediction: Federer d. DelPotro in the finals
6-2 6-3 6-1.

JCF,

“But I don’t want him beating Rafa in the final. Rafa I’d like to see lose in the SF.”

If you’d like Rafa to lose in the SF, whom do you see Roger beating, or want him to beat, in the final? JMDP, like Samprazz; Murray? Who else could get to the final on that side? Blake? I suppose Roger could get some major revenge for the Olympics loss if that were the case…

I think if Federer beat Nadal in the final it would really make a statement that he’s really up to the task to putting a good fight to reclaim his rank back… it would be the perfect finale for this season and it would keep us very excited about 2009.. kind of like those movies that end and you just know there is gonna be a sequel cause it didn’t end conclusively

Wertheim’s predictions at the slams has been quite off this year

Hi y’all. Whoever said Roger is overdue for an early slam exit sent shivers up and down my spine. He/she is SO right. Maybe Fed and Stan should try for a last minute wild card into the doubles?

My tentative quarters predictions are:
Rafa vs. Monfils, JMDP vs. Murray (I predict it, yet don’t really believe it), Roddick (yeah, right) vs. Djokovic and Fed vs. Haas (except that now I’m on the “early exit” trip.)

Predictions suck. . .sigh. . .

The one I can make without second guessing myself is that Rafa will win it all - it’s the perfect way to end his (truly!) unbelievable season.

NachoF Says:
I think if Federer beat Nadal in the final it would really make a statement that he’s really up to the task to putting a good fight to reclaim his rank back… it would be the perfect finale for this season

A Federer v Nadal final is definitely what I want to see…but Im not sure Federer would want to.
There is no reason why Nadal cant attack Federers backhand at USO the same way hes always done in the past…and I think hes getting better at it…in one of their previous encounters recently he hit 100% second serves to the Federer backhand for the entire set. If I was Federer I would be hoping for someone like Nalbandian to step up to the plate and knock Nadal out…I think Federer can deal with Djokovic’s pace better than he can deal with Nadal’s constantly attacking the backhand.

For Rafa fans, if you have not seen already.
http://www.theinsider.com/news/1135105_Spanish_Sensation_Rafael_Nadal_s_Steamy_New_Cover

For those interested in history of tennis fashion, click the link at the bottom of the page:
http://nymag.com/fashion/08/fall/49256/

Jason Says:

My blockbuster pick for the tournament is Verdasco d. Federer in round 4.

This is not totally out of the question. Verdasco is another example of a “clay court specialist” who probably plays as well on hard courts as he does on clay.

About Murray, I said recently that he might not reach semi at the USO. I continue to have some doubt about him, though I’ll be happy for him if he does get there. Two of the reasons I am not fully convinced yet how far he will go at the USO are: His Cincy win could be largely attributed to Djoko’s elimination of Rafa; and his 1st round loss to an unknown Lu in Beijing raised some question about his ability to thwart an unfamiliar opponent. So, Murray’s making to the final will be surprising to me. However, if he only makes to the semi here, he’ll already have accomplished his mission of firmly establishing himself as the 4th player on hard court.

Murray to me, is kind of where Federer was before he was able to put it all together…you can see the talent there and the variety but he just lacks the consistency. I think he has the ability to be mentally tough but perhaps the main think he lacks in that department is focus over the course of a long match. It still amazes me to watch how well he moves given his lackadaisical demeanor.

I don’t want to make any predictions. It is a very tough quarter and half for Rafa with Blake, Karlovic, Monfils, Nalbandian…all in his quarter and if he can get through, he has to perhaps play Murray/Ferrer or Del Potro.

Federer has the easy one. I see no obstacle for him till the qf and then his test will come in the semis against Djoko or perhaps Roddick.

It will be interesting to see how Roddick will do. If he is over his injury, he has the chance to beat the three big guys to get his hands on the trophy. His first test will probably be a qf against Djoko. Will be very interesting. I would love to see a Federer/Roddick semi as well.

btw,
Rafa will blog for timesonline during the US Open.

http://timesonline.typepad.com/rafael_nadal/2008/08/rafa-nadal-blog.html

Zola, I agree that Nadal’s draw is no cakewalk. Blake can always be dangerous and particularly so if hes playing at home in NYC. Im not sure what to make of vs Karlovic…can the big guy last for 5 sets (we know Nadal can)?…dont forget Berdych who is in there too and likewise dangerous.

As the first day approaches more and more it seems to me that Nadal is the one who has to be on guard for an early exit…not Federer. Given the year he has had he’s sure to be relaxed and confident…and one minor lapse in concentration and he could be gone in the early rounds. I dont see this happening with Federer who I expect will be as focused as weve ever seen him.

Jason,
you should do the atp racket bracket with that presiction. You never know!
I think in Toronto there was one person who had kiefer for the final and he won the first prize!

Vulcan
Karlovic is not easy for anyone. going to 5 sets is assuming Rafa wins 2! if he can win 2, I think he can win three , but against Karlovic on hard, I am not sure.
Blake just comes red hot from the olympics. I don’t think he is an easy match. Berdych loves to play Rafa. He just pounds Rafa’s short hits. If they play and if Rafa can win, that will be as significant as a win over Tsonga or Blake. a great confidence booster for Rafa.

The only thing I like about the draw is to see Murray on a different quarter than the big 3. I really see him as no 4 right now and not Ferrer.

Zola, perhaps one of the downsides for Nadal in a Karlovic 5 setter is that the US Open has a tiebreaker for the 5th set…so Nadal cant think about rope-a-doping him to the fullest extent as he might at another slam. I wonder how many 5 setters Karlovic has even played…not many I think because from what ive heard he usually goes out early in the majors.

vulcan,
there is actually lots of pressure on Federer. Everyone says this is his last chance to win a GS this year. He said his focus was the olympics and he did not do well there. now for him there is either US Open or nothing and that’s a lot to take. Not to mention that he is defending 1000 points here.Rafa has only 125 to defend. For him the semis is a very good result. He has already won 8 titles this year and everyone knows he is tired. There are more expectations from Federer than Rafa.

I would love to see Rafa win, but I know he had a very tough year. I will be happy if he has a better result than last year.

I just hope someone else take Karlovic out before Rafa!

and I love Ivo…..If he beats Rafa, I want him to be the champion!

I think the first person that could take him out would be Querrey. He can bomb serves also and has a better baseline game.

About Federer and the Olympics…I think he did OK there…he still walked away with a Gold medal and Blake has always given him trouble. I know what you are saying about Nadal is true…and I know Ive brought this up ad infinitum…but the spotlight has gotta be on him too because of what he is in a position to accomplish….but the media does not seem to have picked up on it and certainly Rafa is taking it one day at a time as usual.

One more thing about Nadal…Davis Cup is coming up right after the US Open…and Spain is in a good position to make it to the final given that they are playing the USA at home on clay…it seems Nadal would withdraw if goes deep at USO..but an early exit would still give him the opportunity to play Davis Cup…a win win situation. (although im not sure if he intends to play at all)

Vulcan

I really don’t see any positives about Rafa losing at the USO. For me this is *his time* so to speak. He needs to just rack up as many Slams as he can while he’s the best player in the world. For me it’s been great following Federer’s quest for Pete’s record, but if Nadal can win the USO, that would give him 6 Slams and he’s still only 22! That would tie Borg by the way at that age with the AO still to play before Rafa turns 23.

For me Rafa’s main focus right now should be on the Slams and he shouldn’t let anything get in the way of that. He’ll hurt his Slam chances if, unlike Pete and Fed, he makes DC a priority as well. He’s already *been there, done that* so to speak.

Zola,

Thanks for the suggestion! I’ll probably be wrong but I just have a bad feeling about Fed at this year’s Open and this streak of semis has been going on an on and seems like it due to come to an end.

Verdasco’s also got that really heavy lefty forehand that he can torment Fed’s backhand with, plus he seems to be in good form heading into the tournament.

Vulcan,
I love your positive outlook. I think RAfa takes it one match at a time. His attitude is to do his best and live with the result. If his best is not good enough to win the US Open, then there are things to improve and come back nest year. Surely, any RAfa fann would love to see him win this one too, but I want to stay realistic.
For starters, I will be happy to see him win his QF match!

Jason,
forgot to write that as much as Rafa loves his country, I have never seen him pritoratize Dc over a MS or a GS. He doesn’t even think that far ahead. Besides, he might just play one match in Davis cup. it is not a full tournament.so I agree, right now US open and his first match should be his priority.

Jason, I tend to agree that there is alot on the line for Rafa for this tournament….among all the aforementioned…this is also an opportunity to shut the mouths of the “clay court specialist”
contingent once and for all (although Im sure some of them would insist he won on “slow concrete” as JCF so deftly mentioned many moons ago).

Federer has been able to deal with Nadal attacking his backhand in the past, especially on hard court…. if Federer is to win this tournament its gonna have to be completely regaining his form and beating whoever crosses his path, not being lucky at avoiding those who can hurt him when he is not at his full capacity.

Jason Says:

“I see Wertheim is picking Djokovic to win while also picking Fed to reach the semis and Nadal to make the finals.”

For this to happen, he really needs to rout Federer and finish Nadal quickly as well. If Federer extends him to 4 or 5 sets on Saturday, I’m just not sure he will have enough in the tank for the final. He might be second match on Saturday, finishing in the evening, and then in less than 24 hours will have to play the final. He can’t afford to exert himself too much in the final either. To play back to back 5 setters would be a big ask even for Nadal to do.

Samprazzz,

“If by chance Rafa gets knocked out early, that top half of the draw is wide open. We could see a really whacky semi-final pairing. I don’t know who will beat Rafa, but at the U.S. Open, I’m not 100% confident that he’s going to get through to the semi-finals. This is his worst surface.”

I’ve done some thinking about this. People do say that this is his weakest surface. He doesn’t have any slams on hard yet, but does have a slam on grass and a few on clay, so logically hard court sounds like his weakest surface. But what would his weakest surface be if he were to win the US Open this year? Would people still say that hard court is his weakest surface? What if he were to go on and win the AO next year as well (two hard slams), but fail to defend his Wimbledon title? Will grass become his weakest surface? Or perhaps indoor carpet?

I am not saying he will win these, but it is food for thought in the event he does win a slam on hard some day.

“Nadal on a great roll, but he’s just too vulnerable on hard-courts.”

Just curious… have you been watching what’s been going on in the last 5 weeks or so?

jane,

“If you’d like Rafa to lose in the SF, whom do you see Roger beating, or want him to beat, in the final? JMDP, like Samprazz; Murray? Who else could get to the final on that side? Blake? I suppose Roger could get some major revenge for the Olympics loss if that were the case…”

Murray is due. Rafa does have a perfect record against him, never dropping a match, but there is always that first time for everything. Djoko was perfect against him too, now he’s lost twice in a row to Murray. The Scot is due, and he’s had more rest than the other guys thanks to an early exit in Beijing.

I don’t actually want to see Nadal lose. If Fed doesn’t make the SF, I’d like Nadal to win the title. My crystal ball gazing skills suck though, and I don’t want to make a pick on who I think will end up winning, at least not at this stage. Djokovic is capable of winning this, as is Murray, Fed, Nadal, and JMDP would be an outside chance. It’s tough to pick someone outside of these obvious contenders, but choosing between them is even harder. Rafa looks like the favorite on paper, but anything can happen with him. Sometimes a guy plays lights out tennis and he’s beaten pretty bad, like Tsonga and Gonzo did to him at AO.

I totally believe that Djokovic would beat Federer in his current form. I’m not 100% sure Djoko will make the semi-final though (the Safin match is mouthwatering), or even Federer for that matter.

“although Im sure some of them would insist he won on “slow concrete” as JCF so deftly mentioned many moons ago”

This is as fast as concrete gets in grand slams, so if they call it slow because he won it, then they’re just going to have to admit that there are no fast hard courts in GS. All courts are slow, which obviously will work to Rafa’s favor, right?

He has to win it first. I think it will be key for him to not be pushed too hard in the early rounds, as I’m not sure how quickly he’ll have recovered from all that tennis. He’ll want the right people to lose, like those guys who hit bombs all over the court, though personally, I’d like to see how he deals with them. A match with Karlovic is always up in the air, no matter who it is that plays him.

JCF

Good point about Nadal’s worst surface. Certainly if Rafa had lost at Wimbledon to Robert Kendrick in 06 or Youzhny or Soderling in 07, the consensus in the tennis world going into this year’s Wimbledon would’ve been that grass was *by far* Rafa’s worst surface. Seems to me he eked out those matches but not some matches at hard court Slams and that’s pretty much the only difference.

For me it would be the upset of the year if Rafa does not reach the final. And once he’s there it seems he matches up great against Roger and has a mental and conditioning edge over Novak.

“He has to win it first. I think it will be key for him to not be pushed too hard in the early rounds, as I’m not sure how quickly he’ll have recovered from all that tennis.”

I’ll probably get some people’s knickers twisted into a knot, however, I’d like to think I’m objective, but maybe to some, controversial. Anyway, be that as it may, I find it very difficult me to understand why people make so many excuses when it comes to their favourite player’s draw and/or chances of winning a tournament. The plaintive cry by most Nadalfans, (I’ve chosen him, due to the fact that most of the excuses emanate from his fans) is always the same, “Rafa has the toughest draw”. Is there anytime that he ever gets an easy draw? Then the other most difficult to understand statement, “he’s played so much tennis lately, he’s tired”. Why is he more tired than the other players? The answer, because he’s played more matches? For starters, it’s a known fact that Nadal dedicates at least 5 hours per day in practise. A 3 setter match, most of the time he’ll finish it in 2 sets, at maximum the match lasts for 2-1/2 hours, sometimes in an hour and 15 minutes. Minus this amount of time from his 5 hours practice time, and we’ll come up with 2 1-2 or 3 hours less time exerted per day, if he’d practiced instead of played. There are times he practices after playing a match. He’s young and he has a lot of energy and this is why he’s ascended to the No. 1 rank, hence, what tiredness are we talking about. There are too many built in excuses. The same applies to all of the tennis players, they practice several hours per day more than playing in a match. I think some of us tend to judge these athletes by our own standards and/or limitations. That’s why they are athletes and we are sendentary workers. Practising and playing tennis is their job. It’s the same for most of us who have an 8 or 10-12 hour job, and mentally challenging jobs are much more draining on the human body as opposed to the physically demanding occupations.

Looking at the draw, and it’s been the consensus of opinion by most of the top tennis experts, that the US Open draw greatly favors the top 3 players. On paper if we look at the draw in it’s entirety, some of the names in each section of the top 3 draws contains big hitters and a few tough players with good games, however, looking more closely at the players the top 3 have to play for the first 3 rounds, there isn’t any great threat. To me the top 4 are akin to the queen bees, who have worker bees/drones doing all the hard and/or dirty work for them, and when the drones have cleaned up the mess, then the queen bees just have to deal with what’s left — the cream of the crop. The top 3 players are in the top 3 because they have demonstrated that they are better than the rest of the flock. Because those are the solid facts, then no player should be viewed as too tough for them to handle, I’ve never understood the reasoning behind the draw and that is the top players are nursed an/or enabled along the way so that they will be around for the SFs and finals. Due to that logic or illogic, then the top players will always win the most grand slams and tournaments, and in order for the other players to win would have to be an act of God. I don’t get it!

Jason Says:

has a mental and conditioning edge over Novak.

Conditioning for sure but mental I dont know.
Rafa clearly has a mental edge over Federer but Djokovic has got to know that if everything is clicking and he is making all of his shots he has a good shot at beating Rafa…I dont think he is intimidated. If he is intimidated its only due to Nadal physical superiority over him and the fact that he knows that as the match wears on his chances to win it will dwindle if it goes too long.

Von Says:

Due to that logic or illogic, then the top players will always win the most grand slams and tournaments, and in order for the other players to win would have to be an act of God. I don’t get it!

Its pretty simple economics really. Ticket sales pay for stadiums and prize money…the top names draw the biggest crowds…the more times the top names can be seen the more tickets are sold.

Vulcan:

“Its pretty simple economics really. Ticket sales pay for stadiums and prize money…the top names draw the biggest crowds…the more times the top names can be seen the more tickets are sold.”

I know that, this is why I mentioned that they are nursed and/or enabled with easier draws, but it’s exceptionally unfair to the other players. It’s all about the almighty dollar. I have a friend whose favourite statement is “Show me the money”. I absolutely despise the draws and the whole system really gnaws at me. It’s injustice personified to what exponent!!

“If he is intimidated its only due to Nadal physical superiority over him and the fact that he knows that as the match wears on his chances to win it will dwindle if it goes too long.”

This is so true. Mental toughness is at least fifty percent relevant to physical superiority and/or inferiority. In the minds of the other players they know that Nadal has a running game, more a war of attrition, and if they are not physically up to that kind of exertion, then Nadal has a greater chance of winning the match even before they leave the locker room.

JCF Says:

Sometimes a guy plays lights out tennis and he’s beaten pretty bad, like Tsonga and Gonzo did to him at AO.

This is the main difference between Nadal and Federer. Federer is capable of both playing, and defending against, lights out tennis…while Rafa is pretty much capable of neither (excluding FO 08). Nadal’s game is steady suffocating pressure while Federer’s at its best is an unpredictable stream of brilliant shots.

Just to make things clear about my last statement…Nadal is capable of hitting plenty of brilliant shots, his down the line curling forehand passes, and 10 foot behind the baseline backhand crosscourt passes to name a couple…but his game is not built around hitting brilliant winners in the way Federer or Djokovic’s is.

Vulcan says;

“…This is the main difference between Nadal and Federer. Federer is capable of both playing, and defending against, lights out tennis…while Rafa is pretty much capable of neither (excluding FO 08). Nadal’s game is steady suffocating pressure while Federer’s at its best is an unpredictable stream of brilliant…”

“…but his game is not built around hitting brilliant winners in the way Federer or Djokovic’s is.”

I think it is quite inappropriate to assess Nadal’s game base on how he played last year. Everybody can see how tremendous he is in term of improvement especially in the previous 6 months. He has successfully enhanced his game in nearly every department. To me, the today’s Nadal is completely a different Nadal that we knew last year. Therefore, the best speculation on how he’ll play in USO08 should be based on how he played since the AO08 onwards.

I don’t know what some of you guys call briliant winners. Winners are winners may it be “brilliant” or otherwise. On the one hand, both Federer and Djoko have said before that Nadal’s game is one dimensional and that their games have more variations. On the other hand, Nadal have never said negative about their games and simply said that tennis is a very simple game.

But look at their head-to-head! Nadal is ahead on both of them. So which would you prefer, a player with so much variations in their games and produce brilliant winners or a player who simply play tennis and produces not-brilliant tennis but wins most of the time?

Von,

When players practice they aren’t exerting themselves the way they do in a real match, and the intensity is not there. Plus I don’t think they’re going to be spending 5 hours per day on the practice court in the middle of an actual tournament. They’ll have a hit for half an hour or so to loosen the muscles and that’s about it. There wouldn’t be enough courts for starters, and it’s suicide.

About fans who make excuses on draws, injury, etc… Sorry, but it takes one to know one, hon.

Someone with Phelps-like stamina (and appetite) would do well in this game.

Vulcan,

“This is the main difference between Nadal and Federer. Federer is capable of both playing, and defending against, lights out tennis…”

When you can hold your own against lights out tennis, it doesn’t really look like lights out tennis at all.

“while Rafa is pretty much capable of neither (excluding FO 08).”

How about at Wimbledon? Against Murray? Federer?

” Nadal’s game is steady suffocating pressure while Federer’s at its best is an unpredictable stream of brilliant shots.”

That is correct. He’s not going to win awards for style. He’s about consistency, and playing the percentages. He doesn’t think the guy hitting brilliant winner after winner is going to be able to keep it up for three sets and will eventually start making errors. Whether they will end up ahead or behind in the winner/error count is what decides the match, and he expects them to be behind. The way he’s been taught is, it’s a crime to give away free points. He generally doesn’t go for it unless there is an opening or he’s already in control of the point.

Let’s give credit where it’s due: Federer is exceptional at hitting winner after winner without missing. Not just any winners, but impossible looking ones. He makes the game look easy. But he is exception, not rule.

“Just to make things clear about my last statement…Nadal is capable of hitting plenty of brilliant shots, his down the line curling forehand passes, and 10 foot behind the baseline backhand crosscourt passes to name a couple…but his game is not built around hitting brilliant winners in the way Federer or Djokovic’s is.”

Different players have different styles. I don’t think you can say any one style is better than another. I was impressed by the way Djokovic played against Nadal in Cincy in the first set. If he can play like that in every set, he’d be unbeatable.