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July 7th, 2008


Federer v Nadal Wimbledon: The Day After

by Dan Martin

“If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same”
from Rudyard Kipling’s poem “If” are inscribed at Wimbledon.


I am not sure other words can really describe the quality of the 2008 men’s final. The nerve each man possessed to execute shots that no one else in the world can hit was amazing. It is one thing to hit those shots when crushing someone in an early round match in a smaller tournament; it is another to do it on the final Sunday at Wimbledon when your opponent is just waiting for an opening or a let down. Sure, Federer struggled to protect his 2nd set lead and Nadal struggled to close out the 4th set, but the other guy had a lot to do with that reality. Both men walked further into immortality yesterday. Beyond the replays of the match that will undoubtedly be played for years to come, each man helped tennis transcend itself. The shots both hit expand the horizon of what is possible on a tennis court for the next generation of players.

NBC Revamp Needed:

John McEnroe and Ted Robinson’s commenting was not good in my opinion. Tastes may differ, but I would prefer a different announcing team in the future. McEnroe has great passion for announcing, but I think he needs a partner who can prevent him from going off into strange tangents, being too negative or reliving his glory days. It would be great if NBC overhauled its entire approach to covering Wimbledon and the French Open.

Roger Federer Still Has Life:

It has been popular to predict Federer’s demise. If Federer wants to do so he can remain a relevant factor on the tour for several more years. Those comparing yesterday’s loss to Federer’s 2001 victory over Sampras forget that Pete Sampras was nearly 31 and not nearly 27 when that loss occurred. Pete would be the first to tell you that Roger does not suffer from an energy sapping and recovery stalling form of anemia. Sampras’ anemia adds even more glow to his accomplishments, but if one does not have anemia one should benefit from a stamina and longevity perspective. Mats Wilander beat Ivan Lendl in 5 tight sets to win the 1988 U.S. Open and wrestle the #1 ranking away from Lendl. Ivan won the 1989 Australian Open. Pete Sampras gutted out a 4 set victory over Andre Agassi to take the 2002 U.S. Open title. Andre then won the 2003 Australian Open. Sampras watched Agassi win the 1994 U.S. Open, lost to Agassi in the 1995 Australian Open final, then lost in the 1st round of the 1995 French Open. Down and out right? Pete then won the 1995 Wimbledon and U.S. Open titles. This does not mean Roger will simply sweep to the 2008 U.S. Open title, but it does mean many champions have lost tough matches and gone on to rebound and win big titles after the fact. If Roger keeps reaching late rounds at Grand Slams, he can win his share of big events.

If I had Roger’s ear I would tell him 3 things:

1. The worst thing you imagined could happen has happened. You are still here and are still relevant.

2. You will always be relevant. Just look at how Borg, McEnroe and Vilas (among others) are treated at these events.

3. Losing cannot hurt your legacy, but winning can help it. Any win just adds to the historical haul. There are big prizes to be won in 2008 and beyond. Go play to win.

Nadal at the Top

Rafa Nadal is the top player in tennis today. He will hold this distinction through at least January 2009. His tenure as the standard bearer for tennis will have its own style and that is a good thing. New pressures come with being the man, but Nadal ought to handle this pretty well. I hope he continues to attack rather than feeling the pressure to defend prestige and ranking points. I said in my championship preview that Federer is my all-time favorite tennis player. That is still true, but I also have high hopes that Nadal will carry the banner of the sport proudly.

Lessons from the Match

It is possible to attack and play cleanly. Rafa has great net clearance on his shots and his top spin keeps many shots from ever going long. Yet, the velocity and spin he produces causes these generally error free techniques to also have a serious offensive component. The bounce after a Nadal shot is difficult for anyone to handle. Many unforced errors are forced by the almost table tennis like spin and trajectory he gets on the ball.

Fighting and self-confidence can carry a player back from the brink or hold off a stiff challenge. Both of these men believed they were going to win and played through difficult situations.

Nadal is Talented

Nadal’s racket head speed is ridiculous. A post on this site mentioned how fitness is the only thing that matters in tennis today. That really sells Rafa short. He is quick, strong and tireless, but he also has the racket head speed to control shots and even hit winners on what are normally considered to be non-winning court positions. Nadal can dictate play, but he also makes his opponent hit more than one winner to end a point when he is on the defensive. Throw in his uncanny ability to hit winners when anyone else on tour would be just fighting to stay in the point, and Nadal has a recipe for undermining confidence and creating indecision. This aspect of Nadal’s arsenal does require conditioning, but it also takes great coordination.

The Topic of Sports Talk Radio

Driving home from work I heard commentators on both ESPN and FOX Sports Radio raving about the engrossing quality of the match. This is good for tennis in every possible way. Tennis means something to the casual U.S. sports fan today even if no U.S. born players were in the final match. Imagine that.

It is worth repeating

“If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same”
from Rudyard Kipling’s poem “If” are inscribed at Wimbledon.

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122 Comments for “Federer v Nadal Wimbledon: The Day After”

JCF Says:

Has anyone tried watching the matches on the wimbledon website? It seems you can download them for free, but have to pay if you want it streamed. Does anyone know who commentates on the official wimbledon match videos?

Andrew Miller Says:

I was also surprised by the casual fan interest in the Wimbledon final between Nadal and Federer this year. Two colleagues at work who do not play tennis (both are golfers) watched THE WHOLE MATCH and said it was the best tennis match they had ever seen. I have seen too many to pick a favorite match, but the fact that they cared about the match and the result, just blew me away. They are casual fans who didnt know who Justin Henin was, but they loved seeing Nadal pull the match out at the very very end with no light. I read that the viewership for the match was SUPER HIGH around the world. That is nothing but good for tennis.

The sport is far from dead, and we have the Nadal-Federer rivalry to thank for that!

Alain Says:

The “3 things if I had Roger Federer’s ear” points may be well intentioned, but it comes across as smugly patronizing. What’s the basis for the assumption that Federer thinks he’s no longer relevant?

As of this moment Federer’s probably the favourite to win the US Open, and also to make the finals of all the 2009 Slams. Simply because he’s no longer the automatic favourite to win 3 of them doesn’t by any stretch make him irrelevant.

p.s. Everyone, please join me in a campaign to henceforth ridicule all users of that ponderous Kipling quote. It was a dull cliche already in my grandfather’s day.

maria Says:

GREAT ARTICLE BY DAN MARTIN. I LIKE BOTH FEDEX AND NADAL FOR THEIR GAME - HOWEVER I DO LIKE FEDEX MORE. I FEEL THAT THE COMMENTATORS FORECAST OF THE MATCH WAS ONE SIDED AND NATURALLY DESTRUCTIVE TO THE OTHER. SURELY FEDERER WAS NOT THEIR FAVORITE AND THIS IS DAMAGING TO THE PLAYER. LET THE CROWD AND THE RESULT OF THE GAME SPEAK FOR ITSELF. YES NBC NEEDS A REVAMP.

Maverick Says:

By playing Wimbledon that way he did, Federer has proven to those who wrote him off. 2 set down, to a very difficult adversary. Coming back to win 3rd and 4th sets, with the psychological pressure of losing Wimbledon title and maybe number one ATP ranking, on the back of his mind, is beyond comprehension.

Federer played the 5th set equally well. Making winners from all around the court and the display of shots, at a time of immense pressure, surely says that Federer is a great champion and will be a great champion.

History will always see Federer as a great champion whether we like it or not. Federer will look ahead and play many more memorable matches, proving that he is a force to reckon with

Federer is number two in Clay court. He is still number one in Grass court,unless someone consistently beats him on grass court,which I do not see happening. He is number one on hard court. Federer has good credentials, better than others.
So in all fairness writing off Federer is unfair and uncalled for.

jane Says:

I would tell Roger to get a coach - not someone who helps him “on clay” or someone who just helps at “the slams” or even someone (read: Mirka) who runs the rest of his life - a real coach. Roger could use a coach to help him sharpen his backhand, tighten his forehand and get back that half step. It’s not only mental with him. His serve is still awesome as is his general conditioning (i.e., stamina) but even Fed could benefit from a coach and mentor.

You can bet that Uncle Toni helps Rafa immensely, just like Djoko’s coach helps him; those two have excellent people in their camps. Look at Murray too; he may’ve found the right team now too. The importance of a good coach & team, even for an immensely talented player, cannot be underestimated, imho.

Tim Says:

Great read. My comments:
Champions that had to go through adversity make History. This is Roger’s destiny now. Where does he go from here? Does he rise through the ashes of the Rafa factor beat down the last two majors and figure out a way to beat him and thus get his record grand slams or does Rafa solidify his eventual #1 position?
The US open will be very interesting. I hope Roger ( as a fan ) changes his game physicaly an mentally to meet the challenge as all great Champions have had to do to make their mark on history

Tim

Joel Says:

JCF, you can download the matches, but you almost must purchase them to view them. Wimbledon wraps DRM around the downloads.

It’s all pretty silly. I find myself wondering how much of their bandwidth is wasted on delighted fans who end up being tricked and deleting the download.

freakyfrites Says:

Hi! Thanks for this article - it put yesterday’s final in perspective - especially the info about the slams Pete won later in his career. As a Fed fan, this helps me get out of my gloom and doom state.

But did Pete Sampras ever have a single adversary as tough as Rafa? Man, with Nadal’s record on clay, the way he destroyed Fed in the FO final, nearly won in straights yesterday, etc. how can he not be unbeatable (a la 2005 Fed) for the foreseeable future? Talk about intimidating! I guess the hard court season will reveal some of his weaknesses, but if you dominate clay like he does, and can beat Roger Federer in the Wimby final, who cares if you “only” win one or two Masters Series on hard courts all year? It’s seriously freaking me out!

I’d say this year will be what it will be, but Roger should start next year with a coach, to help straight away with training and strategy (I think his mono messed up this important “off-season” portion of the year for him this time around.) Adding a coach mid season like he did with Jose, just adds too much new information and pressure for all concerned. Roger seems to second guess himself too much when he plays Rafa, and he needs a coach to work on a solid game plan so he stop self-coaching on court and enter the sublime autopilot mode we’re used to seeing. You don’t have time to think when you play Rafa.

NachoF Says:

wow, the truthfulness of this article makes me sad….. the Federer era has really come to an end :(

Dan Martin Says:

Thanks for all of the good vibes. Alain, I am not sure what coverage and lead up to this event you watched/read, but a lot of the stuff I read was really painting the picture that this was Federer’s Waterloo or … Greg Garber finished his prediction at ESPN.com with “The King is Dead, Long Live the King.” Patrick McEnroe was saying the key question is not if Nadal can beat Federer, but if Federer can beat Nadal. Prior to the match John McEnroe was saying that Federer may never get to this situation again (a la Borg after the 1981 Wimbledon). The pre-match eulogy was constant in some circles for 1-2 weeks. (Jon Wertheim at SI was a notable exception on this point.)

So my response is “not so fast.” From 1998-2000 Sampras, Agassi, Kuerten, Kafelnikov, Rios, Rafter and Moya all held the #1 ranking for at least a few weeks. In 2003, Hewitt, Agassi, JC Ferrero and Andy Roddick all held the #1 ranking even if at the end of Masters Cup 2003 it was obvious Federer would soon be #1. Wilander, Lendl, Edberg and Becker from 1988-1991 played catch with the #1 ranking. In 1992, Courier entered the fray with Edberg. 1993, Sampras took over from Courier, but by early 1995 Agassi was #1 but Sampras recaptured it only to see Agassi and Muster hold the ranking for parts of 1996 before retaking the throne. Federer still has big prizes to win, and he can still be #1 despite the melodrama leading into yesterday’s final.

As for Kipling, it is on the grounds at Wimbledon as the players leave the lounge and enter the court. If they had a quote from Yoda inscribed there, it would be relevant to Wimbledon because it is part of the event. The fact that it has some aesthetic value is a plus. If one finds the poem to be trite, take it up with the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. It is part of the grounds, and it fit yesterday’s occasion.

As for a coach, I think Federer should strongly consider this. Listening to Andre Agassi break down his next match at the 2004 U.S. Open makes me think Cahill or someone of that ilk may be a great hire (my guess is Agassi is too busy to do more than consult).

angel Says:

NachoF you must be able to see the future or something like that, how is that Federer era has come to an end?… you wish Federer is still young and he will win many more grand slams especially hardcourts slams where Nadal doesn’t play his best, he will probably lose his number one spot to Nadal at the end of the year but come on Federer has been number one for such a long time, there is not doubt in my mind that if he’d lose it he can recover it again. Instead trying to finish Federer carrera you should be glad that we live in a era of such high level of play like it’s never been seen before.

kamret Says:

Your article would have been perfect if only you didn’t include that part criticizing McEnroe’s commenting. People around the world beg to hear McEnroe’s comments ANYTIME and most people don’t think they are negative. Just because you were not impressed by his comments doesn’t mean that the whole world shares your opinion. I’d bet you are en extreme minority in this department.

Dan Martin Says:

Kamret, first thanks for the near perfection status. I like both of the McEnroe brothers and think they are great ambassadors for the sport. I just think Ted Robinson is the wrong partner for John McEnroe. Robinson leaves a vacuum for McEnroe to fill, and I think a stronger partner would help. I am not wanting a return to Carillo, Enberg, McEnroe either. Johnny Mac and someone new would be my preference.

Smith Says:

Excellent article Mr. Martin.

Even though the rankings don’t reflect it, Rafa really is the #1 player in the world right now - it’s only a matter of time before it’s “official.”

I know Federer is probably devastated right now and probably wants to crawl in a hole somewhere and cry it out, but this loss might actually be a positive for him in the long run. If this loss doesn’t force him to improve himself and learn some new tactics in playing Nadal, then he will consistently be on the losing end of this rivalry.
I know Federer has done well in the past without a full-time coach, but I think it might be time for him to hire one. It will be interesting to see Federer’s mindset heading into the U.S. Open.

If it’s a Fed-Rafa final in the U.S. Open the excitement will be off the charts. I badly want these two to be in the finals come that final Sunday in NYC.

As for the media, this match is all anyone is talking about - people at work who don’t like tennis, talk radio, etc. The match led the topic of discussion on ESPN’s Around The Horn (which has never happened before) and took over the first THREE segments of Pardon The Interruption. Even people like Dick Vitale are weighing in on the match! I can’t recall a time in the last 10 years or so where tennis is the #1 topic on ALL the sports shows.

Also, the men’s final beat the women’s final in the ratings. The men’s final overall averaged a 4.5 rating but was as high as 6.5 in the fifth set(comparable to Agassi-Fed at the U.S. Open, the last time a tennis match scored that high in American TV ratings). The fact that people stayed with the match during the entire 7 1/2 hours of broadcasting (and with the rain delays) is a testament as to the quality of the match. The women’s final was a 3.4 rating.

Smith Says:

It’s weird because I like Ted Robinson and John McEnroe commentating at the U.S. Open but I don’t like them together at the French Open and Wimbledon.

I wonder who they could put Mac with, however. He seems to like Robinson (it was Mac who refused to commentate with Bud Collins and was partially responsible for getting Collins out of the booth at NBC), I get the feeling Mac probably gets to choose who he commentates with.

NachoF Says:

I dont care… I might still be in shock but I cant help feeling this way… the fact that Nadal is gonna be no.1 makes me sick to my stomach.

mary Says:

Tim: “Champions that had to go through adversity make History.” Best thing I heard since this match.

I’m not trying to take away from Nadal by any means, but there are two separate things happening in men’s tennis.

You have Nadal who owns the clay and not plays a great game on grass. I’m afraid that if he does not win another title until next clay season, which is what happened this year, he’s going to get unfairly dumped on.
You have Federer who is chasing history, unlike the other players.

The quote from Tim’s article is why Nadal’s win is important, but why, in many articles and , Federer is the main topic. In the US, we appreciate those who win daily, but we love those who get knocked down and fight then win again.
Ali, Agassi, even Jordan from when people were asking why can’t he get the Bulls to the championship game.

Also, I noticed that many think Fed needs to remember he is an athlete first and not “international man of tennis.” He looks like a fool with the costumes. Tennis is not figure skating. The attention of the media to this year’s get up was the media telling him the same thing.
He needs to put on shorts, top, sweatjacket, and unadorned Nikes. Stop with the celeb guests in the box. Don’t go to fashion week. And, while I could write paragraphs about the evilness of Wintour, I will spare you.
Nothing wrong with knowing celebs, even if they are your BFF, they don’t belong in the box.

Hypnos Says:

Someone needs to get Agassi into the booth. He has the showman chops to do the play-by-play, and wonderful teaching ability has he showed when he guest-commentated the Federer-Roddick US Open match.

But I doubt he could partner with Johnny mac.

Hurley Says:

A line from Rudyard Kipling’s poem If was the last thing the players saw before they entered Centre Court, yet it is another stanza that so aptly summed up this final:

If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on’

andrea Says:

i will wait until the end of the year before i toss my hat into the ring to declare who will be #1, or the best of 2008 or anything else of that ilk.

nadal has been playing outstanding tennis for sure this year; the best of all the top players. but until he backs it up with the second half of the year results, i remain unconvinced. (but i’m standing by, waiting to be convinced….).

post wimbledon last year, it was almost 8 months before he was in another final and actually won. it’s these results that have kept him at #2. now the gap between him and roger is narrower so the chance for the #1 ranking to change hands is totally possible.

we have to wait and see. his body seems to take a beating on the hard courts though so if he’s off with sore knees now….

JCF Says:

I think Fed needs to call Lundgren and get him back, or try and court Darren Cahill.

And Fed needs to take a leaf out of Roddick, Hewitt, or even Nadal’s book and learn how to deal with a tough loss. Those guys are so great at accepting defeat, they just take it on the chin and don’t get devastated by it. Yes, Nadal did cry, but he at least could contain it in front of others. And he didn’t turn up moody to the press conference.

He dealt with the AO ‘05 loss to Safin with such grace. He spoke about what a great match it was and what a pleasure it was just to be a part of it, and that was 10-8 or 9-7 in the 5th as well, and Fed had match point, as well as saved about 6 match points himself before finally succumbing to the inevitable. That should have been no less a crushing defeat as this one, but the reaction was so different…

He also handled his FO defeats quite well. This one was something different. Look at how Roddick reacted in losing to Fed at Wimbledon finals… He sets such a great example, as well as Hewitt at USO ‘04. If there was any disappointment, they sure hid it well.

JCF Says:

Joel Says:

“JCF, you can download the matches, but you almost must purchase them to view them. Wimbledon wraps DRM around the downloads.

It’s all pretty silly. I find myself wondering how much of their bandwidth is wasted on delighted fans who end up being tricked and deleting the download.”

Thanks for the heads up Joel. I almost fell for it. :(

Skorocel Says:

Joel said:

“It’s all pretty silly. I find myself wondering how much of their bandwidth is wasted on delighted fans who end up being tricked and deleting the download.”

You can bet that I was among those “delighted” fans as well… Just can’t understand why they’re doing all this?! Idiots!

Shital Green Says:

Fed needs a couch, but it won’t be easy for him to find one. After Peter Carter, the one Fed truly respected as a couch, died in August 2002, he lost everything about coach-thing. Throughout 2004, the year of his impressive rise, he never had a coach. In 2005, he hired Tony Roche, only to release him without intimate professional courtesy (right before a Slam was hurtful). Fed’s relationships with any coach has not been the same since then. Coaching Federer is not an easy job: It cannot be easy to tell him what to fix in his game. He acknowledged that, “I think it’s very hard for coaches to work with me. They’ll no doubt have a good CV afterwards, but at the same time they’re under a lot of pressure.”
I was surprised why José Higueras, who did not need a richer CV, accepted to be hired as a part time coach except to be associated with Fed’s history. If you are Fed’s coach, your freedom of speech could also be curtailed. Fed knows that too, “If I had bad results then people would say it was because of the coach. It could easily backfire on him. It’s a big challenge, which is why Jose doesn’t want to do any press interviews. I think that’s the best approach.” Is it Jose not wanting or is he suggested not to? How many future coaches of Fed’s can afford to be hired as part-time, with meager pay, observe silence, and be told “you-are-no-more” right before a Grand Slam?

Another note:

Rafa makes the right decision to withdraw from Stuttgart. It’s amazing how responsible he is. He “traveled to the Weissenhof tennis center to tell the promoters personally of his withdrawal as the clay-court event’s defending champion and star attraction.

“This was the least I can do. I’m disappointed that I can’t play,” Nadal said. “My doctor said I need a few days off. I will have a checkup and treatment and won’t return to the court until I am 100 percent fit” (AP).

He deserves some rest.

Shital Green Says:

JCF,

If I were Peter Lundgren, I would not come back to coach Fed. It was more painful for Lundgren than Roche when Fed decided to let go of him. When Lundgren was initially hired, it was because Carter would not travel with Fed. In course of those 7 years relationship (not coaching), they became very close friends, but Fed decided one day to end it unilaterally without any apparent reason. Though shaken, Lundgren at the time did not react in any manner to show how hurtful it was: “”This is what happens with the kind of relationship we had, we were so close. We did everything together. We ate together, we went out together, we even played PlayStation together. Now it’s good for him to carry on with something else and I’m happy to be doing something else.”

JCF Says:

Shital,

“Throughout 2004, the year of his impressive rise, he never had a coach.”

I thought 2004 was his best season out of the last 4 fantastic seasons, and I was even more so impressed by the fact that he did it solo.

However, the game has changed since then, and his opponents have gotten better. Nadal was a non-factor in 2004. This year alone, he denied Federer of 4 titles (two slams, and two masters series). This would have been unthinkable in 2004. What a difference that makes. The time for complacency is over. He needs a full time coach, and not some guy he can call every new and then for advice. Roche was half hearted. His deal was he’d only work with him during the slams because he didn’t want to travel. Now that he’s with Hewitt, he’s willing to travel. I’d feel pretty hurt by that, personally.

Some coach is better than none. Even Gilbert who should be looking for work right about now.

Nadal is not his only problem right now. He has Djokovic to contend with too. In 2004, he had no rivals. 2005-2006, he had one rival. Now he has two (and both have good coaches). He cannot continue to pretend nothing has changed, or the game will pass him by.

Fed hired Higueras to help him win RG. I think Pete hired him too for that same reason, but it didn’t work and ended up hurting him at Wimbledon also because they tinkered too much with his game (he lost that year), and he needed some time to undo what Higueras did. At least he’s only a part time coach.

Skorocel Says:

andrea said:

“i will wait until the end of the year before i toss my hat into the ring to declare who will be #1, or the best of 2008 or anything else of that ilk.”

andrea, the year end No. 1 is already a foregone conclusion after yesterday’s match… Fed has loads of points to defend till November, whereas Nadal almost zero - simple as that… It could be that the Spaniard may once again screw up the 2nd half of the season, but in all likelihood, he will only do better :{ But to be honest, even if he’s not the No. 1 player on paper yet, he’s already there in my opinion… Everyone who beats Fed on his home turf and manages to win both SW19 and RG in the same year can be rightfully named the world’s best player - that’s at least my view…

As for Fed, with SW19 and the year end No. 1 already out of question, there are only 2 things of importance for him in the remainder of the season: the Olympics and (most importantly) the USO. All the other tournaments will be just a bonus…

Shital Green Says:

Time line of Federer’s Coaches :

‘89 - ‘91 -………. Seppli Kacovsky
‘92 - ‘ 94…………Peter Carter
‘97 - ‘98………….Peter Carter
‘99 - ‘03………….Peter Lundgren
‘05 - May 12, 2007…Tony Roche
2008 April- present…José Higueras

JCF Says:

“andrea, the year end No. 1 is already a foregone conclusion after yesterday’s match… Fed has loads of points to defend till November, whereas Nadal almost zero - simple as that… It could be that the Spaniard may once again screw up the 2nd half of the season, but in all likelihood, he will only do better :{ But to be honest, even if he’s not the No. 1 player on paper yet, he’s already there in my opinion… Everyone who beats Fed on his home turf and manages to win both SW19 and RG in the same year can be rightfully named the world’s best player - that’s at least my view…”

Forgetting 2008 race for a moment, even if Nadal has a crappy second half, Fed still has a monumental amount of points to defend. One AMS final, one AMS title, and US Open title. If Fed doesn’t defend his US Open title he is screwed. Nadal has almost zero to defend, and I’m sure he’s going to have a crack at the Us summer this time.

There are so many ways for the gap to be closed. Nadal can still overtake his ranking with a bad season. Fed has to defend his points and that is going to be harder to do this year than it was last year. The game has moved on since then.

Here’s the points they each have to defend with Fed first then Nadal.

US Open: 1000 vs 150
Cincinatti: 500 vs 5
Canada: 350 vs 225
Basel: 250 vs 0
Madrid: 350 vs 125
Paris: 75 vs 350
Shanghai: 650 vs 200

There are plenty of opportunities to close the gap, with the US Open being a big one. Nadal is about 770 pts apart now, and he earns big if he gets past the 4th round. The only place where he has more points to defend than Fed is Paris. Ironically, it could be Djokovic or someone else that helps Nadal out by stopping Federer and giving him the #1 rank, because if that happens, then Nadal doesn’t even need to do anything except match his relatively poor performances from last year.

gm Says:

“…You have Nadal who owns the clay and not plays a great game on grass…”

Mary, you must be kidding me. Nadal has OVER-proved that he can be very very good in a grass court.

I’m a big nadal fan, since i’m Spanish and i love his game, determination, manners and kindness. But i think some journalists are selling off federer too soon. It’s normal that he loses some grand slams, specially with nowadays competitivines, his past dominance wasn’t normal.
i think we should give roger the credit he deserves.

As for the US OPEN, Nadal will do a geat tournament if healthy. But there are a few more players that strike me Like djokovic, roddick (if he is at his 100%) etc. I Think we should also look out for Gulbis, he is a promising young player. He did grat at the RG and on WIMBY he lost against the final champ

How much damaged did to Federer? Says:

He has already been beaten like 9 times this year. And how he was beaten at the Grand Slams. I am pretty sure, it gonna hurts his confidence. Especially how he was beaten at the Australian and the French. Such humiliations. And it would be horrible tough for him of how he is beaten at Wimbledon.

Federer's demons Says:

They are going to haunt him for awhile. Especially if he is in a match with Nadal. Even when he is in the lead. Federer would always think about having Nadal to comeback beating him. The word fate would comes to Federer’s mind, whenever he is trying to serve out for the set, when he is playing Nadal.

Federer's demons Says:

He also has to deal with superstition as well for winning his 13th Grand Slam. Luck is what he needs? Well, he would needs luck to win another Grand Slam. If he has a good draws, like not having to play Murray, Djokovic, Nadal, Nalbandian. Then he might wins another slam.

Skorocel Says:

to gm:

Mary obviously meant “now”, not “not” :) Just a typo I guess…

gm Says:

Skorocel, you’re are right :)
sorry for the misunderstanding.

Federer's French Open Bid Says:

People have simply forgot that, he has to win the French Open to be the best player ever! Or if he would ever beats Sampras’ record for having the most grand slam?

Dan Martin Says:

All good points - Jim courier said something to the effect that most tennis players like tennis precisely because they do not have a coach in their ear all the time so coaching tennis is difficult. Courier thought tennis players are difficult to coach because they love the individual nature of the sport. There are few Bill Parcell, Rick Pitino, Bobby Knight-type tennis coaches. (Federer with Bobby Knight would be an interesting Saturday Night Live sketch).

I think one of Roger’s biggest issue with Nadal is indecisiveness, and he said something about that in one of the post match interviews. This makes sense as Nadal can hit winners when he looks dead in a point. Nadal is also a master at extending points with quality shots rather than just throwing up a weak lob and running for cover. Speed, determination, and the wicked spin he hits should indeed make anyone indecisive. Agassi would throw Becker off because Boris would get passed so easily on the return or off of a good volley and it just took him out of his game. Becker at Wimbledon 1995 seemed to be resigned to getting burned some of the time and still attacking the net and he won the match. Federer may need to just say to himself “on every break point I am chipping the backhand return to his backhand and coming into net” or “every break point I get I am just going to swing for a winner” or … and just simplify the response and know exactly what he is going to do. He also would need to know that shot patterns that work 9 out of 10 times versus everyone else may not work as often vs. Nadal but 4 out of 10 is better than 1 of 13. Picking a response is likely a good first step, but it is no panacea. Knowing ahead of time that in this situation I am going to do X may help him execute and it can be intimidating to the other guy to know he has to prove he can hit a certain difficult shot every time he gets behind. I am not sure it would intimidate Nadal but simplifying the return game may help with execution. Federer is gifted with many options but indecision versus Nadal is brutal.

I do think losses can rock a player’s self-confidence including Federer, but he also gets to be the hunter rather than the hunted. Nadal skipping Stuutgart kind of hurts because Federer may enter the U.S. Open seeded #1. Trying to get to the top is generally considered easier than staying there. If Federer gets some confidence back by January 2009 (something I think he will do - heck a gold or even silver medal may renew some of his confidence in August 2008*), he will be hunting Nadal and Djokovic up through Monte Carlo as he will have relatively few points to defend compared to years past.

Anyway off to work.

* I am not a fan of tennis being an Olympic sport, but adding a medal to your and your home nation is a really nice personal accomplishment.

Shital Green Says:

Andrea / JCF,

Don’t miss out the Olympic points for ATP Ranking :

Gold Medal - 400
Silver Medal - 280
Bronze Medal - 205
Loser 3rd/4th - 155
Quarterfinals - 100
Round of 16 - 50
Round of 32 - 25
1st Round - 1

Let me add this from ATP’s analysis: “Should Federer and Nadal perform as well as each other this year in Toronto and Cincinnati (e.g. they each make the semifinals at both tournaments) then Federer’s lead on August 18 will be cut to 150 points.

That razor-thin margin is the equivalent of the points difference between winning an ATP Masters Series title (500 points) and finishing runner-up (350). So the performances of Nadal and Federer at the ATP Masters Series tournaments in Toronto and Cincinnati will likely determine who holds No. 1 during the Olympics (which will award points) and heading into the US Open.

If the No. 1 ranking has not changed hands before the US Open, Federer will again be under intense pressure. He has 1000 points to defend after winning his fourth consecutive title in New York last year. In contrast, Nadal has just 150 points to defend after losing in the round of 16 last year.”

isla Says:

I agree with the comment from Mary “Fed needs to remember he is an athlete first and not “international man of tennis”. He looks like a fool with the costumes”.
It’s bad enough that female players (most of them) have that problem worrying about how they look more than how they play. But the No. 1 male player dressing up to play the most important Grand slam of his career! Can’t wait to see what kind of costume Fed will have for US Open!

Instead of a coach, Fed had celebrities in his box! What for? the woman looked bored to tears and the man acted obnoxious, pumping arms excessively long after each Fed’s winning points. Guess he wanted to make sure that TV focus on him.

As Mary said above “Nothing wrong with knowing celebs, even if they are your BFF, they don’t belong in the box.”

rjnick Says:

I think the Fed Era is over only in the sense that his era of total domination has come to an end. I don’t think we’ll see him winning 3 Slams in one year again or 4 Masters events. And at least, right now, it looks as if his consecutive streak at #1 may come to a close. But that doesn’t mean he wouldn’t eventually get back to #1. And I still don’t think there’s anyone who doesn’t believe he won’t break Sampras’ record of 14 Slams — the last 3 will be hardest and will probably be won over a couple of years.

If Roger is THE greatest player to have ever played the game, then Rafa is certainly one of the greatest — he’s making a case to be up there with the likes of Borg and Agassi. He needed this win. He needed to prove he could win a Slam outside Paris. And he doesn’t want to be remembered as the “best player to never have been ranked #1″.

Rafa strikes me as the type to burn bright, but fast, and while I don’t think his time is running out, I do think that his window of opportunity won’t be as long as it will be for Roger or even Djokovic. He’s 22 and already needing to tape up knees and fingers — and it’s the overriding reason he falters every year after Wimbledon like clockwork.

And that’s a shame. Because anyone who loves Roger or Rafa really ought to appreciate that one enhances the greatness of the other. And when people look back on this era, this final, they will see two of the very best to have ever played the game pushing each other to the beyond the limits of their talents in ways I bet even they didn’t think they were capable of.

Because of the way he’s had to fight off Nadal, Federer is an even greater player than he ever otherwise would have been. And because of the way he’s pushed Federer, Nadal has proven that he’s equally worthy of greatness in his own right.

rjnick Says:

Also, on the rankings — according to the ATP site, because Canada/Cincinnati are being held earlier this year than in 2007, rankings from this year AND last year will actually count for a few weeks in August because all 4 tournaments will fall within a 52-week period. That means that the earliest anything can happen would probably be Beijing (free points for both players), but more likely in New York — where Fed and Djokovic have far more points to defend than Rafa.

jane Says:

I re-watched the 5th set of that final; Fed whacked a lot of forehands into the net. His timing seems to be off on that shot. He was also, after the rain delay, kind of nervous and irritable. Right before he got broken, he was complaining about the flashbulbs/ cameras. So I think he lost his focus there. Rafa stayed really focused at the end there; I suppose he knew this is it - can’t lose more championship points!

Yep, Fed could use a coach and maybe he could be a little less stubborn. Someone said above that the younger up and comers are all in “learning” mode, including Rafa & Djoko, who can still improve, as well as guys like Roddick & Safin, who are still working on their games. So why can’t Fed adopt that attitude? I don’t understand it. But it’s his choice. When he went it alone in 04 he was at his peak, or at least coming into it, so maybe it worked for him. But now that he’s no longer quite there, a coach could help.

As many have pointed out, he’s got a lot to defend on hard courts and there are perhaps even more threats there - because not only will Rafa be looking to do better, but Djoko will be hungry and wanting to defend his points, and others like Murray will want some wins too. Roger better get ready, and a coach could help. I don’t think he’ll get one though…

jane Says:

Those were mainly forehands down the line that went into the net, the ones he tried to run around sometimes. His “off” forehand, as some call it, was working for him though.

Vulcan Says:

From what I remember of the match his inside out forehand was firing on all cylinders…and it had to be because that was the only way he could really hurt Nadal.

Vulcan Says:

Regarding improvement, there has to be room for it first. There was clearly room for improvement in terms of variety in Nadal’s serve…he didnt have the hard flat serve. I dont think there is any room for improvement in the Roddick serve…hes already the best and hits every possible serve. Im not sure what else he could improve on other than his volley.

Dan Martin Says:

From the interviews, I think Federer is focused on 3 things remaining in the year: The Olympics, The U.S. Open and the Masters Cup. Each offers opportunities as he could win a medal, could win a 5th consecutive U.S. Open (5 titles ties him with Connors and Sampras for the most in the Open Era) and could win a 5th year end title to tie Sampras and Lendl. I think if he does 1 of those things he can head into 2009 where he has fewer points to defend prior to Monte Carlo and be the hunter again. If he does 2 or 3 of those things, he can really have binded up his wounds and achieved some cool stuff. 5 Consecutive U.S. Open titles would be really impressive though difficult to achieve. If he does none of the 3, he will head into 2009 in a poor mood/mindset. The ranking is likely not as high of a concern as he broke the consecutive week mark long ago and likely put the record out of reach by adding at least 72 weeks to the old record. He also has a good chance of eventually setting the all time weeks at #1 record even just by playing hot potato with the ranking over the next 2 years or so.

Vulcan Says:

Of those 3 objectives probably the Masters Cup is the one that is the most clearly attainable for Federer. Anything can happen at the Olympics were players display superhuman abilities when motivated by national pride. He has a good shot at winning the US Open but there is a greater chance for an upset there and if he runs into Nadal again look out (assuming Nadal could survive the earlier rounds). Shanghai would be the easiest because Federer seems to come into the end of the year with plenty of energy also

gm Says:

The problem for FED in the olympics is that he is not motivated by national pride. An example of this is that he doesn’t play davis cup matches,
because he is more focused in his individual career.Whereas others players take it very seriously.
The olympics are just another personal achievement for him. As vulcan said other will be EXTRA motivated.

ShayHay Says:

Federer domination is over and I couldn’t be happier. I’m so glad to see the young guns make legitimate bids for number 1. It’s refreshing, because as amazing as Federer is, the sport was getting very boring with only him winning slams. I mean for a period there we started every year claiming that this would be the year of Federer’s Grand Slam. Frankly I was getting tired of it. It’s no secret that I’ve never really been a fan of the Swede, but I admire his ability. My national pride always wanted to see an Andy Roddick or James Blake realize their full potential, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen. But I’m glad that there are players like Rafa, Novak, or even Marat to cheer for because they have amazing game and they bring excitement to a sport that was fast losing its sizzle.

andrea Says:

nadal will also lose his points for not defending stuttgart so that puts him around 800 points lower than fed after next week.

i agree that there are a ton of points to defend for fed, which may look insurmountable, but looking at his level of play in the past 3 weeks, i’d say he’s back on track and a high favorite for the hard court season. djokovic also has a greater chance on hard courts than nadal, which i think most people here would agree with.

nadal seems to have found his groove and is playing at an insanely high level, but he also went down in straight sets to davydenko (!) in miami. (i’ll forgive chennai due to his semi match being over 4+ hours). we’ll see if he can carry momentum onwards.

i like it that the race for #1 is close now. makes it interesting on a match by match basis.

mary Says:

gm, Skorocel:It was a typo!

ShayHay:
“It’s no secret that I’ve never really been a fan of the Swede, but I admire his ability.”

Is that some anti-Borg freudian slip? I’m down with that.

Federer has participated in Swiss Davis Cup. I don’t think there is a national pride issue with him. Aren’t the trainers that travel with him trainers or coaches from the Swiss Davis Cup team?

I cannot stand Djokovic, no lie. You don’t think that he has had his a@@ handed to him since the AO?

ShayHay Says:

mary

Dang that was a typo. I forgot that Federer was from Switzerland. My apologies to Sweden- lol!!

Shital Green Says:

Andrea says:
“i like it that the race for #1 is close now. makes it interesting on a match by match basis.”

Yeah, the closer, the better. As you know many of us here have been talking about this for over a year now. Tennis is becoming more interesting to watch match by match, which has been lacking for the past couple of years.
To be precise, as JCF did the math, it is 770 that separates Fed from Rafa after Stuttgart. Although Djoko is a bit behind now with the early loss at SW19, he should be able to close the gap by the end of the year if he performs better. It may not happen soon, but I would like to see a couple of other players in the fight for top 3, which will spice up the excitement further.

Fedex Says:

In a matter of hours, Roger and Rafa doused all the fire surrounding Djokovic. Marat beating the crap out of Djokovic was one of the high points of Wimbledon that did not involve Roger or Rafa. As a federer fan, the final should have been very tough for me, but with a classy player like Nadal, it is no problem at all. The tennis champions get classier by the day. Sampras, Federer and hopefully Rafa. It will be awesome if Federer and Rafa can knock Djokovic on the hardcourts till his arrogant head comes to a more tolerable size.

Come on Roger and Rafa, make it 3 slams in a row!

Ra Says:

I’m confused. Rafa has 6055 points and will drop 250 next week by not defending Stuttgart. His total will then be 5805. Federer has 6600 and is not defending any points until Canada. Through my math, that means that Federer will have a 795 point lead over Rafa going into Canada. Is there something I’m not accounting for that leads others to call it a 770 point lead?

matt Says:

Yes, his fifth best result outside MS and GS, which will be Rotterdam with 25 points.

Shital Green Says:

Ra,
You are missing 25 points that Rafa will get from the 6th tournament, Rotterdam, which will fill the vacuum created by Stuttgart, which was counted as 5th.

Von Says:

shayHay:

“My national pride always wanted to see an Andy Roddick or James Blake realize their full potential, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen.”

I’m with you here. I always root for the Americans and would have liked very much to see them advance further at Wimby. Andy usualy makes it to the QFs and beyond, but this year it was very disappointing. He was sadly lacking in match play going into Queens and then Wimby. Blake, however, didn’t really have much of an excuse losing to Schuettler — sometimes I just don’t understand James’ mind set. Lets’ hope they both can do better in the US open series and the US Open., if not, they’ll both be out of the Top 10. Sadly, I had higher aspirations for our Andy — I can’t even switch to another Aerican hero in the younger set — we’ve got none. Sam’s an iffy proposition.

hiding behind our keyboards Says:

Federer said after his 2008 Australian Open loss, and I paraphrase: “I feel like I’ve created a monster.”

He has to a degree, since there’s this feeling of utter devastation from many when Fed fails to capture some big titles after having dominated at such an unprecedented rate and at such a high level within a five-year period. The comedown was an inevitability. This year has shaped up so far to be like Sampras’s 1996 season, with Fed’s second-half performance yet to be completed.
What’s improtant for him now is to improve his level, which right now is not what it used to be. If he can focus again on what got him all those titles to begin with, he can still be a dominant force in the sport. He could still come back and win the Wimbledon title next year and a couple more after that. If he’s having a crappy season by his previous standards, he needs to understand that these things happen to all the great champions. He knows if he’s good enough to continue or not. He needs to push forward and do what he needs to do, whether it’s hiring a full-time coach and/or improving his physical conditioning.
This is not the end unless he decides it is. These types of losses normally make you hungry to come back and win again and again. Part of his legacy as a tennis great will be his determination to rise up after being down.

Leftykick Says:

I am a Federer fan but in a way I am glad that he lost. He has been losing ground now for over a year and I have not seen much improvement in his game. Hopefully now he will see sense and get a full time coach.

Talk about tennis becming boring what about Nadal at the French? If someone does not step up soon he will win that for another 4 years! The biggest shame here was that Coria (the last king of clay) lost his way. He was the only one that could give Rafa a game on clay.

JCF Says:

rjnick:

“Rafa strikes me as the type to burn bright, but fast, and while I don’t think his time is running out, I do think that his window of opportunity won’t be as long as it will be for Roger or even Djokovic. He’s 22 and already needing to tape up knees and fingers — and it’s the overriding reason he falters every year after Wimbledon like clockwork.”

This is true… Rafa does commit everything to the first half of the season, leaving little left for the second half. However, the Australian Open shouldn’t be beyond his reach if the US is. He starts out fresh after the season break, and should be fit enough and healthy enough to handle the hard courts this early into a season.

What he’s got to do is plan his schedule more intelligently. Don’t bother with the small tournaments (except before AO), and just focus on the Masters series and slams.

Nadal should not set his sights on becoming #1. His goal should be winning big titles, and then do whatever it takes to be best prepared for them. If he succeeds there, then the #1 ranking will come naturally. I’m more interested in seeing how Federer reacts to the coming crisis. We all know Fed cares very much about his #1 ranking. Will he start playing more tournaments?

And IMO, the olympics is overrated. Only 80 race points makes it worth less than a Masters Series. Nadal should skip it and try to win Cincinatti instead.

JCF Says:

gm Says:

“The problem for FED in the olympics is that he is not motivated by national pride. An example of this is that he doesn’t play davis cup matches,
because he is more focused in his individual career.Whereas others players take it very seriously.
The olympics are just another personal achievement for him. As vulcan said other will be EXTRA motivated.”

I totally agree with this. He is NOT a patriotic person. He sees playing for his country a personal achievement rather than something he’s doing for them. Like you said, his reason for abandoning Davis Cup was in order to maintain his #1 ranking (which he had a huge buffer on at the time anyway). Before he was #1, he was very committed to DC.

Another thing is Gstaad. He used to go there every year, because it was his hometown. Even though it was inconviently placed (a week after Wimbledon), he went anyway. He made the finals a few times, but didn’t win it until 04 or 05. After he won it once, he stopped bothering. Mission accomplished. He wasn’t doing it for his country, he just wanted a piece of silverware for the cabinet. He got what he wanted and moved on.

He hasn’t won a gold medal yet, and he will be playing for the medal, not the pride. I don’t think he’ll care as much for 2012 if he wins it this year.

Cassio Says:

Sean: you are great. keep up with the good work!
wimblendon final was the best macth ever!

JCF Says:

“Federer has participated in Swiss Davis Cup. I don’t think there is a national pride issue with him. Aren’t the trainers that travel with him trainers or coaches from the Swiss Davis Cup team?”

That stopped when he became #1. He announced that year that he will not play 1st rounds at DC because he wanted to focus on Indian Wells and Miami to protect his ranking. Of course, the Swiss never made it past 1st round without him, so it meant he wouldn’t have to play any further rounds anyway, except relegation ties. Now that Switzerland is out of the world group, I wonder what Fed’s commitment will be then?

“I cannot stand Djokovic, no lie. You don’t think that he has had his a@@ handed to him since the AO?”

While he may be #3 in the 2008 race, I would rather have his season than Federer’s. He has two masters series titles and a grand slam. Fed has a lot of finals but no big prizes.

Mary Carillo commented that this is unfamiliar territory for Fed. Half a year has gone and he has two small, competition-starved titles to show for. Normally by this time he’d have two majors and two or three masters series to his name.

Finishing runner up in every big tournament won’t get your name on the plaque any more than losing in the first round will. His pride has to be hurt. Even more so now with Djokovic taunting him and writing him off at every turn.

JCF Says:

“To be precise, as JCF did the math, it is 770 that separates Fed from Rafa after Stuttgart. Although Djoko is a bit behind now with the early loss at SW19, he should be able to close the gap by the end of the year if he performs better. It may not happen soon, but I would like to see a couple of other players in the fight for top 3, which will spice up the excitement further.”

Federer can NOT be liking the fact that the media (including the ATP itself) is breaking down points and talking about what Nadal has to do to unseat him… and how easy it is. I like the headline “King of Clay dethrones King of Grass”.

Stuttgart is worth 250 points, which Nadal will lose, but he will get 25 points back for Rotterdam which wasn’t being counted previously because it was his 6th non-slam and non-AMS tournament (they only count your best 5).

I think Rafa made the right choice to withdraw. He’s played too much tennis the last 2 months, and it’s not worth jeapordizing his hardcourt season over a measily 250 pts in the race for #1. Nadal probably doesn’t care that much about the rank.. it’s only the media that’s talking it up. Nadal’s top goal is likely the US Open.

jane Says:

JCF:

I agree that it’d be wise for Rafa to try to win a hardcourt MS instead of the Olympics, but unlike Fed, Rafa IS clearly patriotic. He specifically referred to Spain a number of times post-match at Wimbledon, not to mention draping himself with the flag and making the deliberate trip to the royal box to see Spanish royalty. He will not skip the Olympics.

At least he withdrew from Stuggart.

rjnick Says:

According to the ATP site, Roger vs Rafa made the cover of Sports Illustrated, out tomorrow.

McEnroe was right — if this doesn’t help this sport in America, I don’t know what will. (Except maybe the same match in New York).

Carmel O'Brien Mulreany Says:

I am a Rafa fan since firstI saw him play,I was never really into Roger’s tenn