Staff:
***Or, you could not be an idiot and investigate that the rankings run on a 12-month cycle, and realize that Rafa is almost guaranteed to become No. 1 by the US Open. Take it easy there non-tennis writer assigned to cover Wimbledon…****

I wouldn’t say Rafa is guaranteed No 1 by the US Open, but this was such a funny statement…

***non-tennis writer assigned to cover Wimbledon…****

loved it! .:)

what’s up with Roddick? why the secrecy? I hope the back injury is not serious.

There was no need for that joke about Michael Chang. That was tasteless.

that Chang comment is hillarious .. rofl ..

Let’s take a close look at Nadal and Federer’s points and what needs to happen for #2 to change places with #1 -

Right now (July14)both men have the following points:
FEDERER - 6600 NADAL - 6055

This time next week neither man will have played, BUT Nadal, by not defending the Stuttgart title he won last year, will lose 250 points. Then we will have:
FEDERER - 6600 NADAL - 5805

Next tournament for both is Canada, where Federer, as the runner up (to Djokovic) is defending 350 points. Nadal made the semis and so he is defending 225 points.

SCENARIO A - Federer beats Nadal in the Final. This would give Federer +150 points and Nadal +125 points. Not much difference. They would then be at FEDERER - 6750 NADAL - 5930

SCENARIO B - Nadal beats Federer in the Final.
This would keep Federer the same and Nadal would gain 275 points. They would then be at FEDERER - 6600 NADAL - 6080

Now we head into Cincinnati, where Federer won last year and Nadal was bumped out in the round of 32. The Spaniard is only defending 5 points, so here is his chance. Let’s see if both men again make the finals and let’s carry on the assumptions from the earlier scenarios -

SCENARIO A- Federer beats Nadal in the final, following up on his Canada win. Then Federer stays the same at 6750 and Nadal improves by 345 points to 6275.

However -

SCENARIO B- Nadal beats Federer in the final, following up on his Canada win. Then Federer loses 150 points and drops to 6450, while Nadal gains 495 points and at 6575 would become the new number 1.

So - it is possible, if Nadal were to beat Federer in both of the finals at Canada and Cincinnati that he could be ranked #1. Out of the two men however I think Federer is the one more likely to go further in both tournaments.

Because of the shifting of the tournaments to accommodate the Olympics, points from Canada and then Cincinnati will be added for 2008 a week before the 2007 points are subtracted.

One thing to remember about the Olympics - this event will count in the ATP ranking system as a tournament. Nadal has 75 points in his 5th best appearance over the past 12 months outside of the 4 slams and the 9 masters (Dubai - 08), so 75 points will be subtracted from whatever points Nadal gets at the Olympics (assuming he gets more than 75 points).

Federer meanwhile has 2 tournaments still to add to his 12 month rotating total, so he will have all his points from the Olympics added to his rankings total.

My guess is that is is unlikely that Nadal can overtake Federer before the US Open.

Sorry for the rambling speculation, but the numbers are tricky sometimes and I just wanted to spell it all out for those of you who have already stripped Federer of his crown. It still may happen, but if Federer has a hard court season like last year then Nadal is going to have to have a hard court season like he has never had before, and one that his knees may not allow.

An update to the above. When Nadal loses his points from Stuttgart he will have his round of 16 results added in from Rotterdam (Feb ‘08), so in all of the scenarios above add 25 points to Nadal’s scores. This also means it will be 25 points (not 75) subtracted from any Olympic points he earns. Sorry about that - G.

Gordo,
thanks a lot for the analysis. I think too, that it will be tricky for Rafa to be No 1 before US Open. Unless he goes very deep ( semis and better) and Roger loses early. Right now, that’s a bit far off of a scenario.

Gordo

“My guess is that is is unlikely that Nadal can overtake Federer before the US Open.”

All your math assumes Federer will either make the finals or win these tournaments. You haven’t considered the possibility that someone else might beat him before then, such as Djokovic for instance… It’s only 225 points for semi finals position, compared to 350 for finals, and 500 for winning the title.

He’s been beaten at the AMS this year by people you would not have thought of, such as Stepanek, Roddick, and Fish, so anything goes. Murray is another guy who’s beaten him this year and I could think of a few others who could be potential upsetters.

I think the first thing Fed will do when he sees his draws is look which side Djokovic lands in. I think if those two were to have a rematch at the US Open, my money would be on Djokovic. He’s improved since a year ago, while Fed has not.

Djokovic has improved? really?… I gotta say I have not been impressed by any of his performances this year at all…. Like I have read several times before on this site, his only achievement is to have beaten Mono-Federer…. and Im almost positive that Federer is gonna destroy him next time they play.

I agree completely with JCF.It is not in Fed’s control any more and the hard court season is not as clear cut as Fed meeting Rafa in the final.Fed will have to play extremely well accompanied by poor performances from Rafa.Both these scenarios appear unlikely given the trend this year so far.I guess the key is Rafa’s knee.Rafa normally pays the price for his busy and extremely successful campaign up to wimby in the second part of the hard court season.If he remains reasonably injury-free,he should take over sooner rather than later because his game appears improved enough to make him a consistently serious threat on hard courts also.A lot of other players will also come more into the equation as compared to the clay and grass season and take heart from the fact that at least in the past,Rafa has not been as successful on hard courts as on the other surfaces. Fed has had a hugely disappointing season on hard courts.Nole,Rod,Murray,Davy,Blake among others are all very capable players.In fact,the hard court season opened up a bit last year and it promises to be even more open this year.As JCF says,both Fed and Rafa will need to avoid Nole in particular in their parts of the draw.I think Nole will be the player to beat in the season up to and including the us open.That early wimby loss may well prove to be a blessing in disguise.He should be well rested and raring to go.

I think we are still very far away from the day that Blake beats Federer on any surface….

***NachoF Says:
I think we are still very far away from the day that Blake beats Federer on any surface….***

Exactly! I actually think that day may never come unless Fed has a health issue or something.

Fed has lost to lower-ranked players like Fish and stepanek this year.Fish had 34% first serves and yet he beat Fed.He lost to Canas(twice)and Volandri last year.Anyone can have a bad day including the mighty swiss.It is to his credit that he has been good enough for most players even on slightly off days but that ability has not been on display in quite a few matches in the instances i just cited.Besides,I never asserted that Blake is definitely going to beat him.If Fed regains his touch,he may well go undefeated for the rest of the year but that is highly unlikely given the trend this year.He could not reach even a single hard court final early this year and looked strangely ‘vulnerable’ for some reason(health or otherwise).He could well do much better than that in the rest of the year but his period of hard court invincibility ended sometime early last year.Btw,I wonder why only Blake is deemed incapable of beating Fed?Davy also has never beaten him afaik.

“and Im almost positive that Federer is gonna destroy him next time they play.”

While either player can ‘destroy’ the other under certain conditions,I will never make such a statement one way or the other.Given the levels they are at,I’d always expect a tough encounter on any surface with the player winning the crunch points on a particular day winning the match.Nole will be my favorite on a very fast hard court and Fed on grass and clay so far as their rivalry is concerned.

Djokovic has had a great year even if he losses every match between now and Dec. 31, 2008 - Aussie Open title, Indian Wells Title, Rome title, semifinals in Dubai, Hamburg, Monte Carlo, & Paris. Runner-up at Queen’s Club. If that is not impressive, I am not sure what is.

If he lost every match from now till Dec. it would be a much worse year than 2007 for him.

How about Monte carlo, Hamburg, FO, Queens and Wimbledon, semi-finals at Indian wells, and finals at miami? I am sure that sounds more impressive. While a 1 slam-year is a great year, the ridiculous standards Federer and Rafa have set mean that a year without multiple slams is just a good year and not a great year.

You are only as good as your last match and Djokovic losing all the matches from now till end of year means he will lose all the momentum he has built up since the beginning of 2007. That is a tough pill for anyone to swallow, let alone one with as big a head as Djokovic. Any top 5 player who fails to win a single match during a 4month period with no apparent fitness issue deserves to be executed.

In last 4 years Fed always won either Canada or Cincy, and last year even with his losts in the beggining of the year he bouced back in second half. I will expect the same thing this year.

His level of play since Halle and Wimbledon was excelent (apart the final where Nadal avoid Fed to be Fed), and he is in his usual final streaks, 4 for him and 4 for Nadal, and even with Nadal’s actual level Fed still has a little advantage to make harcourts final in MS.

But I don’t dismiss Gordo scenarios, I just think we have to add Djoko, and which side off the draw he will be. I don’t see Nadal winning against Djoko in hard the way he done the last 3 time they met.

“You are only as good as your last match”

Really? Seems to me a rather drastic statement to make, given that every player can have off days.

Maybe I am wrong, but I don’t think Dan Martin’s statement “even if he losses every match between now and Dec. 31, 2008″ was meant to be taken literally. I though he was simply trying to emphasize what Novak has already accomplished this year, besides his early exit Wimbledon against Safin - he has had a few other early losses, but he made up for those by going deeper in almost every other tournament he played.

Anyhow, I agree with JCF & noel - the hardcourt season is more open than boiling things down to a Fed v. Rafa scenario as there are a number of other players (including but besides Djokovic) who could do some damage on this surface. Guess we’ll have to wait another week and see.

I think it depends a lot on Fed’s state of mind. He has the game to kill anyone on hard courts and he knows it. Maybe the first part of the year with mono, pressure of the FO, etc., things were a bit different. Now it is a matter of honor for him to redeem himself. I don’t expect a medicore Federer. Either a mentally destroyed one who will go away very quickly ( and that’s very unlikely), or a determined Federer, willing to stamp his authority and defend his title. He .He said in an interview that he will try to win Olympic Gold and US Open title “and then you will see!”…that’s how hurt he is and “hurt” can be dangerous!

Rafa if healthy, will try his best too. He is full of confidence and has had an extra week of rest. Djoko is a big question mark. He pushes himself beyond his own limits and that’s why he burns out so easily. If that’s not the case in Toronto, the tournament will be interesting. If not, it will be Fed-Rafa again and in fact Gordo’s scenarios might be right.

well, all in all, very interesting tennis year. Thanks Rafa and Thanks Fed.

LOL@Staff’s rankings prognosis. These guys never studied math in high school I guess and to rephrase Mr. Clinton: “It is math, stupid”.

But seriously prob with these guys is that they never do their homework, they are just Rafa KADs and revel in that.

Jane, Thanks. Roger Federer, as my columns have openly stated, is my favorite player of all time. I also like Nadal and Djokovic (I like watching other players on tour too). Both guys bring a lot to the sport and play an exciting brand of tennis. I remember at TMS Miami 2007 watching Djokovic and just thinking “This guy is really impressive.”

To me winning 2 Masters Series titles, beating 3 time Aussie Open Champion and World #1 Federer en route to a Grand Slam title, and having solid showings elsewhere is impressive to me.

Nice comments from everyone in here.

When I posted my two scenarios yesterday I only did the “what ifs” based on Roger and Rafa getting to the finals of both Canada and Cincinnati. I am not certain of this happening, but to do additional calculations would have turned my entry into an accounting exercise and would have tested everyone’s scrolling ability.

However I have a hunch - and this is not a brash prediction, but just a hunch - that it wasn’t just every tennis fan of the sport who was blown away by that Wimbledon final. I think every player on the ATP tour - including Djokovic - has cause for concern.

And we are about to learn what Roger Federer is made of. If he is indeed to be considered in years to come as possibly the greatest of all time then I suspect he is going to have a hard court similar to 2006. That was the year he won Canada, lost to Murray in Cincinnati, and then went on the 4th longest winning streak ever - 41 matches.

And as phenomenal as Rafa has played, he still in my mind is just one of the good ones on hard courts. He is not defending a single non clay or grass title in the next 12 months! Here are his results to defend for your information, in calendar order:

CANADA - Semi-finalist
CINCINNATI - Round of 32
U.S. OPEN - Round of 16
MADRID - Quarter Finalist
PARIS - Runner Up
MASTERS CUP - Semi-finalist
CHENNAI - Runner Up
DUBAI - Quarter Finalist
INDIAN WELLS - Semi-finalist
MIAMI - Runner-Up

Good, but not other-worldly. I hope all the “how can Nadal not be number one?” questioners will take a good look at this.

Rafa will compete with full of confidence, that’s very important for a guy like him. When he’s confident about his hard court game, he can beat anyone. Like 2 years ago, no one believed Nadal can capture Roland Garros - WImbledon back-to-back, that sounds very very impressive, no? I hope Nadal will improve his footwork on hard court, he will be more stronger with a better movement.

Rafa’s big issue on hardcourts is court positioning. If he steps in and plays aggressively, he will always be more effective. His topspin doesn’t have the same effect as well, and so he’ll have to try other techniques - hit harder and flatter. But his improved serve will definitely help him this year.

zola & Gordo, I totally appreciate your comments, but I think more players than Rafa & Fed should be “thanked” for the exciting season we’ve seen so far, notwithstanding their great Wimbledon final, of course. And while Roger may be after redemption on hard courts, supposedly he was after the same (or so the press/pundits told us) after the FO rout. But he didn’t get it. There was a good chance that Rafa could’ve won the thing in 3 sets even, and Roger hadn’t beaten on grass in how long? Well he has been beaten on hard courts - a number of times last year and a number of times this year. So to think he’ll sweep the hardcourt season isn’t going on trend anyhow. Maybe it’ll happen, but it’s not the way it has been playing out. As for Rafa, he made some inroads on hard at the beginning of this year, but we know his knees can plague him somewhat in the latter part of the year. Hopefully opting out of Stuggart will work to his advantage in that regard.

Looking forward (besides the top three), hardcourts are a surface on which a number of young players (Gulbis, Cillic, Murray) and some “veterans” (Safin, Roddick, Blake) might be able to make their mark. There are also “uncertain” players, like Gasquet, Nalbandian, Berdych, Verdasco, Ferrer, maybe Davydenko, who could rise up at this time of year. And the new, big servers - Karlovic, Isner.

So I still say hardcourts are more open than assuming we’ll always have the final match ups we might “expect”. Last year, Novak rose up and knocked off Roddick, then Rafa, then Fed to win Canada. This year it could be someone else.

We hold these truths to be undeniable/self-evident ….

From experential learning we have come to understand that to state someone would or could ‘never’ attain a coveted prize is somewhat of a moot argument, since this invariably turns out to be quite the opposite. Hence, to state that Blake will ‘never’ beat Federer could also prove to be meaningless and/or moot. If the first half of this year is a prognostication of what the second half will reveal, then we’re in for some eye-opening revelations, aren’t we?. Who would have thought that Mardy Fish, serving at 38% would beat Federer? NADA. Additionally, Andy Roddick, who has come so close but no cigar on many occasions, did the unthinkable — he beat Federer, this year. How could that happen? Roddick believed that if Fish could do it, why can’t he. Now, considering the foregoing, can we say that Blake will ‘never’ beat Federer? I don’t think so. There have been occasions where Blake played some close sets v. Fed, however, Fed got the upper hand and won, due to Blake’s nervousness and/or self-belief that he could beat Fed, or Fed being the better player on that given day. At times Blake looked like a potted plant! I still feel that Blake could beat Federer, if he thinks he can, and we most probably will witness that happening during a hardcourt season.

____________

JCF:

“I think the first thing Fed will do when he sees his draws is look which side Djokovic lands in.”

Absolutely. Djoko is uncanny in his remarks toward Fed. He has now become somewhat of a miniscule chip reverberating inside Fed’s head due to his vociferous taunts, etc., coupled with his AO win. Djoko is cognizant of the negative effects of his statements blossoming in Fed’s mind. Irregardless, of what others think or say, if something is said or done repeatedly (OCD ) and there’s a metamorphism, e.g., Djoko beat Fed on a hardcourt, the conditioned response manifests itself. The hardcourt season has begun for the second half of the year, I’d say this thought would be uppermost in Fed’s mind. Additionally, if Djoko continues with his braggadocio, who knows how much further it will affect Fed in his present low state of confidence?

Much has been written on prior threads concerning Fed phobia and its effects on other players, and many have denied that such a thing exists. Albeit, a phobia is a state of mind, we refuse to accept the unthinkable, but how can we know what thoughts are swirling around in another’s head? In the past the Fed phobia was so obvious in many players; Fed won his matches in the locker room. However, that has now changed to a certain extent with his repeated losses this year, and Fed who was thought of as invincible or infallible, has demonstrated that he can fall and err in the crucial moments. The Fed phobia will still be present in most players’ minds (those whom he has repeatedly beaten), but the younger players are not that prone to such thinking, e.g., Murray, Djoko, Nadal and possibly, jane’s, new up and comer, Gulbis, whose game is sizzling at the present time. The younger players are akin to kids in the water — venturing where others fear to tread — fearless.

Nadal, through his tenacity, and repeated wins over Fed, has placed a phobia in Fed’s head, and now some are stating and/or believing that there is indeed a Nadal phobia with which Fed has to contend. On a parallel, if there can be a Nadal phobia happening to Fed, why is it not true for the reverse, Fed v. other players, a Fed phobia?

To reiterate my previous statement, this year we will have some eye-opening revelations, but only time will tell …

Jane,
You are spot on about that court positioning issue for rafa.He looked the best in that department on both clay and grass this year and I get the feeling that he won’t be too far off on hard courts either.I have posted on other threads about the improvements in rafa’s game and its implications for his hard court season.Some of Rafa’s displays at wimby-most notably in the Murray match-left no doubt in my mind that Rafa and his uncle have been working very hard at an aggressive playing style closer to the baseline which is ideally suited for hard courts.I understand it is not easy to play so aggressively and yet so accurately all the time.If I were to take that match as an indicator,the only ‘downside’ of the risky and aggressive approach was the slightly lower first serve percentage.His shots were still remarkably accurate.I know that the amount of top spin may go down as well but according to an itf study,Rafa imparts almost twice as much spin on his shots than any other player on tour.Therefore,his shots still will be pretty heavy even if the rpm comes down a bit.What Murray said in the post-qf interview was an eye-opener.He said that Rafa’s shots felt as heavy as ever despite rafa’s much flatter and lower ground stokes.Of course,it remains to be seen if Rafa can execute it that well on a regular enough basis and only time will tell if this will be sufficient against the best hard court players. Imho,he has shown that he has the tools to play very aggressively and is on the right track.Hence my more optimistic outlook for his hard court season.I’d love to see him more often in his new aggressive ‘avatar’ on the hard courts and how he responds to the obvious tactic employed against him i.e.relentlessly attacking his fh side with deep and very flat groundies esp inside-out forehands.

Noel: “Rafa imparts almost twice as much spin on his shots than any other player on tour.”

Considering the amount of spin Nadal has to generate for his shots to be effective, wouldn’t it be logical to assume that his shoulder will begin to suffer from this exagggerated motion? I remember some time within the past 12 months, he had a shoulder issue, even though much was not said about it The focus has always been on his knees on hardcourt but eventually we’ll probably see arm problems being manifested.

jane:

“…I think more players than Rafa & Fed should be “thanked” for the exciting season we’ve seen so far,…”

Unquestionably true. Had it not been for some of the other players knocking out Fed beginning with the AO and the tournaments leading up to the FO and Wimby, there would have been a larger gap between Fed and Nadal in points, and the No. 1 spot would not be looming on the horizon and apparently attainable, as it is presently — one hand washes the other. Djoko started the domino effect, followed by Murray, et al. All of them should be given credit for making this year an unpredictable and exciting one.

Von,
In a ‘normal’ situation,one’d expect a shoulder-or wrist/forearm/elbow to be more specific-to suffer but Rafa is anything but a normal player.I have never seen anyone play such a ‘heavy’ game and it’d obviously suggest that he has been trained to play this way from a very early age.I guess his body has adapted accordingly and given his very visible physical strength,I’d assume that his shoulders/forearm/elbow/wrist are very strong as well.I don’t know if one can easily strengthen one’s knees as compared to one’s shoulder.Probably some forum member who is an expert in this field will enlighten us on the issue.
One thing I do know is that this amount of spin is possible only due to the racquet/strings technology available today.The racquet head size is greater implying a bigger sweet spot.The strings allow you to put more ‘work’ on the ball as the contact time is a wee bit more and as we know, the fear of sending it long has reduced considerably despite taking a very wild swing because of this technology.
A very critical point that is ignored is the weight of the racquet these days and its impact on power and control.these are super light racquets compared to the wooden and even graphite ones.the space-age materials used allow the weight to be low and it becomes ridiculously easy to generate unbelievable racquet head speed while hitting the shot.This would be impossible with the much heavier wooden racquets.All this,combined with rafa’s strength and unique style(some compare it to peeling off the shell of a boiled egg),results in the ‘heavy’ shots that he executes so effortlessly.Since the resistance encountered is much lesser due to a very light racquet,the chances of an injury reduce considerably.IMHO,chances of injury in the lower part of the body are much greater simply because of the way he chases just about everything irrespective of the surface.While he generally moves brilliantly on all surfaces,clay and grass are kinder to the body even though his relentless retrieving did result in a few scary slips on grass this year.The hard courts simply crush virtually all parts of his legs and if he continues to run around as he always does and doesn’t end his points/matches earlier,a chance of an injury is very real.

Noel,

I hope Rafa can, as you put it, adopt the “aggressive avatar” mode on hardcourts too. However, while he did so occasionally on hard earlier this year (ex. against Blake and Tsonga at IW), in other matches he reverted to playing too far behind the baseline. He didn’t play well against Novak at IW (not sure what was up there), he played sub-par and definitely too far back / defensively against Davydenko in the Miami final, and while Tsonga was clearly on fire against Rafa at the AO, Rafa could’ve taken the net away from Jo-Wil at times and he wouldn’t've had to suffer all those volleys and doppers. Djoko did a good job of pushing Tsonga back and taking away the net; Novak’s court positioning on hardcourts is exemplary I think. I’ll bet that Rafa vs. Tsonga match was scouted for him. Speaking of which, it’d be interesting to see Rafa and Novak play on hard again. Rafa had the upperhand in all their clay battles and would love to beat Novak on hardcourts, and yet Djoko would want to maintain that surface upperhand too. It’d be some fireworks, I’d imagine.

Von,

“one hand washes the other. Djoko started the domino effect, followed by Murray, et al. All of them should be given credit for making this year an unpredictable and exciting one.”

Well put - one hand does wash the other but we don’t often think of it that way, looking at things match-by-match, as we tend to.

Speaking of momentum and phobias, there is little doubt that a kind of aura is building around Rafa at the moment, and this might really work to his benefit on hardcourts. As will his likely burgeoning confidence too.

Should be fun to watch it unfold.

Noel:

Thank you for your in-depth discussion. Albeit, the racquets are much lighter and create extraordinary head speed, there have been definitive studies which have indicated that more and more injuries will occur to the arm, wrist, and shoulder, than in the past due to the strings. Apparently, the strings create a vibration up the arm which causes irritation to the nerve endings. For example, Safin hits the ball so very hard and has been plagued with hand injuries. Over the past 2 years there have been many players who have been sidelined with arm and wrist injuries due to the strings, and that number is projected to rise. However, Nadal may be an exception to the rule due to his many physical attributes as you have stated.

There’s not much that can be done for the knee joints when the cartilage begins to wear away, e.g., the synovial fluid dries up, and the cushion effect disappears. However, recently, there have been studies regarding treatments, which have proven to be effective, such as hyaluronic acid, which is a component of the synovial fluid, being administered by injection into the joint, together with oral intake.

Another point worth mentioning regarding Nadal’s game on hardcourt, even though he could remedy his court positioning while playing more aggressively, his serve will always be the weakest part of his game against the hardcourt players. I doubt there’s very much he can do to improve the effectiveness of his serve on hardcourts, considering he’s not a natural lefty server, like Lopez, who can really pack a punch wih his serve. I believe that the natural motion as opposed to an improvised one (righty converted to lefty), will more or less always be the hinderance for him with his serve; but we’ll just have to wait to see what he’ll bring this year. Additionally, the shots he uses on the clay/grass which die, will have the adverse effect on the hardcourts, thus causing long, out shots and more UEs.

At the risk of sounding like one of those equipment geeks that hang out late at night on message boards - is Nadal’s racket really that light? Maybe off the shelf it is, but I’ve heard that if a pro’s stick isn’t customized outright by the manufacturer, it’s at least loaded up w/copious amounts of lead tape to where it DOES approach the weight of those bygone wood frames & that’s one way the pro’s generate the power they do - also I’ve heard that Nadal uses an unusually small grip size as well for some reason.

Personally I hate the newer, lighter frames. If Nadal can do what he does w/a 9-10 oz. racket, I’m even more impressed…

Von:

“From experential learning we have come to understand that to state someone would or could ‘never’ attain a coveted prize is somewhat of a moot argument, since this invariably turns out to be quite the opposite. Hence, to state that Blake will ‘never’ beat Federer could also prove to be meaningless and/or moot.”

Yeah, I miss being able to say “that will happen the day James Blake wins a 5 set match.”

He’s won a few now and broken that curse. I don’t think he ever figured out what was stopping him in 5 setters, or if it was just coincidence and bad luck.

As far as Rafa’s hard court game… how quickly people forget that he won Indian Wells last year. If he can win titles like that (he beat Roddick and Djoko along the way), he can play on hard. It’s a matter of getting the right opponents and avoiding the wrong ones. There are guys who can beat him, which he’ll be hoping to avoid. I think he has a better shot against Federer than he would against Blake, Roddick or Djokovic for instance. I think he’ll beat Murray and Berdych. Nalbandian is a guy he’d rather avoid, as is Gonzo.

Is this the same Zola we used to see around here years ago?
What, when, where, how…? Speculate the Ws and please respond so that I can say “hi” to you in a proper manner.

Gordo said:

“And as phenomenal as Rafa has played, he still in my mind is just one of the good ones on hard courts. He is not defending a single non clay or grass title in the next 12 months! Here are his results to defend for your information, in calendar order:

CANADA - Semi-finalist
CINCINNATI - Round of 32
U.S. OPEN - Round of 16
MADRID - Quarter Finalist
PARIS - Runner Up
MASTERS CUP - Semi-finalist
CHENNAI - Runner Up
DUBAI - Quarter Finalist
INDIAN WELLS - Semi-finalist
MIAMI - Runner-Up

Good, but not other-worldly. I hope all the “how can Nadal not be number one?” questioners will take a good look at this.”

—————

Gordo, can you do some maths? :} If so, then just compare those Nadal’s points to Fed’s, and you’d realize that Nadal {unless he doesn’t break one of his legs or goes on a total walkabout for the rest of the season) is almost GUARANTEED to become the No. 1 player (in the week after the USO at the very latest}…

Skorocel - please read my entry near the top of this blog and you will see I DID do the math.

IF Nadal wins Cincinnati and does better than Federer at the Olympics and if Fed fails to reach the final in Canada then yep Nadal has a chance.

But… “almost GUARANTEED” to become the No.1 ???

As of Monday Fed will have a 770 lead on Rafa - that is slim, but not THAT slim.

Any way we can have a friendly bet on that?

To Gordo:

No problem here I (as a big Fed fan} only wish I could be such an optimist re: his ranking , but unfortunately, I have to be rather realistic here… That Wimby loss was simply a terrible blow for Fed {without question his worst loss to date!), costing him precious 600 points (which, in current circumstances, is A LOT)… Don’t know about you, but if Nadal won’t be the new No. 1 the week after the UO, then I can indeed say that miracles happen

Roger Race Pt 685 and Nadal Race Pt 955
(1 Race Pt = 5 Ranking Pt)
Nadal leads 270 pt (Grand Slam 200 pts)

Roger could get more pts at other best 5 tournament, as he only got pts at 2 other tournament up till now. Certainly he will play more Gold Series if he could defend his year end no.1

We could see improvement at Nadal’s game, so even Roger could get his form in time, it is too hard to chase back the 270 pt difference. We will see Roger play more tournament than last
year. It is good for tennis fans to see Roger play hard to keep his position.

Shital ,
that me, the ancient Zola! Hi!

Jane,
what I meant by thanking Roger and RAfa was not to say that other players have no part in the tennis season. But after the Wimbledon final, now the hard courts are more exciting and less predictable.It wasn’t the same say last year or the year before.

About Rafa on hard courts;
RAfa has been tweaking his game and had great reasults in IW and Miami. Now with the confidence from FO/Wimbledon and the pressure of defending his points off his shoulder, he might be more relaxed. He also has one more week off this year ( compared to last year). If he is healthy, I think he will be fine.

zola,

“But after the Wimbledon final, now the hard courts are more exciting and less predictable.”

Fair enough - although I’d say that the beginning of this year already showed us that hard courts will be unpredictable, given the many surprise winners, finalists, etc, early on in the 08 season.

Jane,
one can say that whatever uncertainties Djoko added by winning the AO early this year, were significantly diminished by his early loss in wimbledon. Still we have to see how he performs in Toronto to judge.

no one says other players don’t have a part but the equation is reverse now. Maybe at the beginning of the year it was Djoko’s quest for a No 2 position, but it is now a battle between Rafa and Roger for No 1 and that’s mainly because of the Wimbledon final.

Von,
I think that the vibration dampeners/absorbers that players use these days take quite a bit of the sting out of the potentially damaging vibrations that you wrote about.In any case,Rafa hits most of his shots very differently and he doesn’t ‘absorb’ as much shock as the other players do.I can accept that it would be very tiring for Rafa’s opponents because they don’t play the sort of amazing top spin that Rafa plays and have to absorb most of the ’shock’ from Rafa’s ‘heavy’ balls. While I will take your word about those definitive studies only because you are telling me,I will normally be skeptical about anybody isolating players’ arm injuries(including Safin’s) down only to the modern strings.Those injuries could be caused by a variety of factors and I also don’t think players are getting injured more frequently as compared to the 1990s for instance and certainly not due only to the strings.Risk of an injury is generally greater these days simply because the game has never been as physically demanding as it is now.Some players are more injury-prone and some have better playing styles/techniques.Some players’ bodies adapt better;some have much better physical conditioning and some play less and schedule smartly to give their bodies adequate rest to heal minor issues that could become major if not given proper rest……………….so far as the knee is concerned,I was talking more about preventive measures and if there are ways of strengthening it thru training/exercises in the way we can strengthen our shoulder.Although I know that there is precious little that can be done for a worn out cartilage,I didn’t know about the new methods of ‘treating’ it.I thought that knee replacement was the only solution in the extreme cases.I need not have asked for an expert here when you are around.Thanks a lot for sharing the latest in medical research.

Your point about Rafa’s serve is well taken so far as his ability to win more free points is concerned.This factor is crucial for Rafa on a hard court because he must shorten his points/matches to avoid taxing his body too much.I also think that he is unlikely ever to serve like a Lopez but he will certainly get some free points with the wide serve from the ad court and the body/kick serve from the deuce court.His average first serve speed was almost as good as Fed at wimby but the percentage was much higher.He is a damn ‘effective’ server.He lost his serve only once as compared to four times for Fed in the final and we keep on talking about how great Fed’s serve is.Fed looked like a fool returning those heavily spun serves.Of course,it is still not a ‘weapon’ for him but once he gets a weak/mishit return,he is normally in a position to take advantage of it.His return game is second to none(except on hard courts) because once he gets into a rally,he becomes the overwhelming favorite to win the point on clay and even grass.However,as you said,only time will tell what all this amounts to in terms of actual results in the hard season.

Jane,
While I have seen Rafa play aggressively earlier,I don’t recall him playing as aggressively and as well as he did against Murray esp in terms of flatter groundies.Of course it was grass and Murray is not yet a big power hitter. I am taking it more as a recent development and won’t compare it to anything Rafa has done before including the early 2008 hard season.Tsonga’s was a once in a career sort of display in the oz sf much like Gonza’s in the 2007 oz qf.I don’t think anyone could have done much about it.The same Tsonga was nervous in the final and either undercooked or overcooked the shots he played so well in the sf.Combined with better tactics and aggressive play,Nole was able to subdue Tsonga after a nervy start.I will also give credit to Davy for the miami final win vs Rafa despite Rafa’s defensive play.Davy executed his game plan brilliantly.There are very few players who can generate such acute angles on both the fh and bh sides while trying to keep their groundies flat but very short.This made a mockery of Rafa’s court positioning and Davy forced Rafa to move diagonally as well.The russian nay not be charismatic but he can play some wonderful groundies on his day.How I wish he had a better serve!…………I actually think that the IW surface really suits Rafa whose heavily-spun shots really kick off on landing.This allows him to be more aggressive esp with his fh.However,Nole’s movement and positioning on the hard courts are almost in the league of Fed’s in 2006 for instance.I wasn’t surprised that Nole beat Rafa easily in IW because he has all the weapons for the surface.His bh,esp the up the line one,opens up a lot of options for him vs Rafa as compared to Fed’s bh which is not at all effective against Rafa in particular.That is why I wrote about the need for some basic changes in Fed’s game on the thread about the si cover.I wonder if you read that post.

While I will be curious to see Nole play the new avatar Rafa,I still think that despite all the recent improvements in Rafa’s game,Nole should beat him relatively comfortably on a hard court esp a very quick one because on a good day,he will bring much more to the court.Besides,it remains to be seen how confident Rafa is about playing his aggressive game more frequently not only in a tournament but during the duration of a match itself.I won’t be surprised if he reverts back to his default mode at least in the crisis situations in the big matches.

Von,
“Additionally, the shots he uses on the clay/grass which die, will have the adverse effect on the hardcourts, thus causing long, out shots and more UEs.”
This sentence has me a bit confused.I can understand the ball keeping low on grass but on clay(?).You are probably referring to reduced top spin resulting in shots going long but I would love you to elaborate a bit more.

Noel,
I think RAfa is a confidence player. He used to go to the hard courts season, not only fatigued after the long clay/grass run, but mentally tired after a defeat in Wimbledon. This year his win can be a factor.

So, I will be curious too, to see how he will play on hard courts.

JCF,
“As far as Rafa’s hard court game… how quickly people forget that he won Indian Wells last year.”
He has also won montreal and madrid ams as well as dubai and beijing in the past.However, IW came more than a year after his dubai win and he hasn’t won a hard court title since then.In any case,we are discussing this more in the context of his performances in the second part of the hard court season.He is normally very good in the first part(ao/iw/miami etc} but is not that fresh for the second half after his grueling clay/grass campaigns.He hasn’t done as well in the us open and certainly is much less consistent on the hard courts.The reason people are talking about his prospects is because he is the form player at the moment.definitely the player of the year and de facto number one.It is natural to wonder if he can take his form-and his new improved game-into the rest of the season esp the us open given his not so great record there.

zola,

“no one says other players don’t have a part but the equation is reverse now. Maybe at the beginning of the year it was Djoko’s quest for a No 2 position, but it is now a battle between Rafa and Roger for No 1 and that’s mainly because of the Wimbledon final.”

Sure - I guess I wasn’t thinking in terms of only “the big three” or rankings 1, 2 and 3 or who will end up holding them year end.

I am talking about potential winners on hardcourts in general. To me, there are many more potential winners than on clay or grass. For example, it’s not unthinkable that Roddick (given his form in Miami, esp his win over Fed), Davydenko (given his win over Rafa at Miami) or even Safin (given his run at Wimbledon) could win a given tournament. Roddick isn’t going to the Olympics; maybe he’ll be more rested for the USO? And as I mentioned before, there are a number of talented youngsters who could upset either Roger or Rafa - especially in 3 set MS events in Canada or Cincinatti - and especially Gulbis, imho.

I am hoping, anyhow, that there is at least some unpredictability throughout the summer/fall hardcourt season.

But you’re right that only time will tell; we’ll have to wait and see how the players do in Toronto. Djoko’s early Wimbledon exit could help him (rested, raring to go) or hurt him (not match ready) - plus Toronto is not the same as Montreal, where he won last year. So we’ll see.

Noel,

Yes, Rafa has been successful at IW because of the high bounce there, and maybe the heat helps that bounce too. But I was surprised nevertheless at how resoundly Novak beat him there this year.

How he performs in this latter part of the year will be exciting to follow, and I agree with you that perhaps his earlier performances on hard in 08 don’t matter much; what matters is now, this later stretch, and whether he can gain points, and step up - literally and figuratively.

Skorocel,
I agree that the reduction in the gap by those precious 600 points-which could have provided some much-needed cushion- due to Fed’s wimby loss could prove pretty decisive in the end.I’d say that he just couldn’t afford the sloppy hard season he had early in the year given the quality of the chasing pack.He will be under tremendous pressure if he is worried about protecting his rank.Olympics have complicated the situation even more.He plans to play four events including two ams events in the last four weeks of the regular season.I can’t quite recall the last time he played four events in four straight weeks.He is not used to this sort of hectic schedule and I suspect this will have implications for his fitness for basel and/or bercy and could eventually jeopardize his tmc chances as well.
Rafa has to just stay healthy and play steadily and the top rank will surely come his way.Rafa has the theoretical potential to gain more than 3000 points in the rest of the season whereas Fed is defending tons of points and can gain only about 1450 points.The Djoker in this pack has potentially around 2700 points to gain if he sweeps every event that he is scheduled to enter.Therefore Rafa appears the only realistic contender at the moment barring any injury.I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t get it immediately after the us open although he has a chance of getting it ‘officially’ after the Olympics also.Of course,it’d be a bit of a shock to me if Rafa is not able to finish year end number one thereafter.

For Nadal on hard court, confidence is everything.

When he is not confident, his shots stay short, he start playing ten feet behind the baseline and so on.

He learnt playing that way, and there is where he goes when he doesn’t feel confident or when he gets mentally blocked.

It is a curious thing, but it has to do with the way he learnt to play the game.

You don’t see that in other players. For example, when Federer or Djokovic are not confident, they usually start missing shots, but they keep hitting hard, they keep trying to hit good shots.

But because of the way Nadal learnt to play the game, in his mind, an unforced error is the worst thing to do, so when he start missing some shots his mind tend to go to old habits: put the ball in, don’t miss. But that doesn’t work on hard courts.

He has been training hard to change that old habit, and he has shown many times that he can hit hard on hard courts successfully, that he can play inside the baseline and make winners from both wings.

But it doesn’t come naturally for him to do that, he must push himself to do that.

When it is working (as it worked in Indian Wells’07) he can beat anyone on hard courts, but anytime he start missing some shots, something in his mind takes control and makes him go back to old habits.

You may think it is not so difficult to change your old habits, but it is.

You watched it in Wimbledon. In QF against Murray, Nadal played so aggressive, making winners and playing inside the baseline.

But in the SF against Schuettler, Nadal got mentally blocked in the second set and went back to old habit. Stayed 3 metres behind the baseline and only put the ball in the other side.

I get annoyed when he does that, but I realize that it is so deep in his mind and it is not so easy to get rid of it.

What Nadal will we see in Montreal, Cincinnati and the USOPEN?

I really don’t know.

Another issue of course is his bad knees. If it start hurting…..there is nothing he can do.

I think Federer and Djokovic will do well. They still have chances to finish the year as nº1, and they will fight hard to get it.

In fact I believe that Federer is the one who will win the USOPEN, and Djokovic is my second choice.

I don’t pick Nadal because I truly believe he will be hurting in the last stages of the Open (he already has been hurting in Wimbledon) and I don’t pick anyone else. So for me it is Federer or Djokovic in the USOPEN.

Jane,
All I want for Rafa is to improve on last year’s results. Asking for a US Open win is too much. He has to reach at least semis in Toronto and play a ound or two in Cincy and does QF or better in US Open.
My picks are first Roger and then Djoko, but I have to see how everyone plays in Toronto first.

Roddick is the pnly player ( if I am not mistaken) that has beaten the top three this year. I normally would have given him a good chance , especially because he is skipping the Olympis”, but to me he seems very distracted,(maybe his engagement?). Otherwise he would have been on my list too. Safin, I don’t think so. I saw his interview in Wimbledon and he has no confidence in himself. Gulbis, Ancic and maybe Cilic in that order might have chances but I don’t see them winning a tournament this soon. Ah, murray? maybe. Still a long shot.I forgot Wawrinka.

indeed , a few days from now and we will see how things work.

zola,

To tell you the truth, I hope Rafa does better than last year, too, and that he gets the number 1 ranking which I think he deserves for his efforts on clay and grass this year. But I don’t want him to hurt his knees in the process. Last year it was so difficult to watch him play at the USO practically hobbled. I want to see him at his competitive best.

I think with Roddick it’s that back injury from Rome, not necessarily the hottie finance.

Jane,
I hope you ae right about Roddick. He had such a good run before the clay season. Now I am looking at his points and he is in real danger of falling out of top ten. I hope he gets better before US Open.

I feel exactly the same about Rafa. I want him to be healthy more than I want the US Open of No 1 for him, because if he is healthy, he will get there some time.

Last year it was very painful to watch him . We have to see what the toll on his body is this year. But last year he had played Stuttgart, which he skipped this year. Also last year he was emotionally burnt out after that loss in Wimbledon. That will be different this year. So, we have to see.

Berdych, Youzhny and Youzhny are always to be said as major threats to Rafael Nadal. However, who agree if is say that Berdych and Blake is no longer a factor to him on hard court? I don’t know about Youzhny (yes, nadal has successfully beaten him in Wimbledon a month ago, but Nadal lost pretty badly to him in Chennai open too, so…)

And who agree that some of the new talent players (like Gulbis, Isner, Cilic or even Kinishikori) will cause a bigger threat to Nadal as oppose to those 3 players that I’ve mentioned earlier?

And lastly, who agree if I say that based on performance-on-hard court wise, the seeded players in Toronto should be as follow: (1)Djokovic, (2)Federer, (3)Nadal?

Noel:

“This sentence has me a bit confused.I can understand the ball keeping low on grass but on clay(?).You are probably referring to reduced top spin resulting in shots going long but I would love you to elaborate a bit more.”

Sorry about the confusion — I deleted that sentence but my computer was slow in reacting, and it remained. The following is what I meant to say:

Nadal needs to hit the balls flatter, thus denying those agressive players who take the ball early the opportunity of getting to the ball and hitting winners. His shots have a tendency to stay up high in mid court. This is the opposite of his clay court game, where the ball begins to die on its descent to the ground. Additionally, he needs to improve his court positioning by playing on the baseline or even moving into the court where he can take the ball early; this strategy created many opportunities at Wimby for him. I think by so doing, he will have more control over his shots and create more opportunities to hit outright winners, instead of grinding out the points, and/or chasing down every ball. He does not possess the same accuracy to guage the depth of the ball on hardcourt as he has on clay. Therefore, making some simple changes to his game plan, he’ll successfully eliminate over-hitting the ball and causing unforced errors.

(This post is jinxed — I typed it three times tonight and on two occasions it cancelled out.)

Sorry, what I meant were Berdych, Blake and Youzhny… Sorry…

Nadal’s recent successes were on clay and grass. He won’t be sliding on hard courts, so we’ll see how it affects his timing relative to that of his competition. The assumption that he has momentum is unwarranted, when the surface changes that much, with others historically more successful than he was.

My other comment is that with Federer’s outstanding play, both mental and physical, at Wimbledon against Nadal, losing by a coin toss, and with his relative strength on hard courts, I think he would also be one with momentum right now. He would also be doubly dangerous when inspired to seek redemption for losing what was apparently for him a franchise.

all very great posts and suggestions here. I can’t wait till Toronto!

“He would also be doubly dangerous when inspired to seek redemption for losing what was apparently for him a franchise.”

I almost feel sorry for the first opponent Fed faces when next he plays. That guy will take the brunt of the unleashing of all of Fed’s frustrations and anger over the last 3 months. Fed will want to make a huge statement, and his opponent will be faced with a gargantuan task of keeping up with him or even winning a game/point. Fed will probably finish off his opponent 6-0; 6-0, in surgical, laser-like manner. Maybe some white flags should be given to the players he meets before the QFs.