I agree with Clijsters odds. She is definetly looking like a favorite. 1st time in a while Serena is not the outright fav…strange. Justine was looking good in brisbane too..but I think she will be susceptible to lose in early rounds because of the draw…she will be unseeded.

Oh Noo!! Murrsy is second fav again..why or why!I think Djoko and Delpo should be above Murray…LOL LOL!

January 10th, 2010 at 4:08 pm

I too agree that Clijsters is the heavy favorite. She’s extremely hungry for majors under her belt, and a win against Henin doesn’t hurt her confidence going into the AO either. I, like always, will be rooting for a Sharapova win :)

Fed too, in my mind, is always a favorite in a best of five format on any hard court, even against Delpo. Let’s not forget that Delpo played out of his mind in the last two sets in the US open final, after he was pretty much done and dusted after trailing by 1 set to 2. Moreover, the semis in Australia are played 2 to 3 days prior to the final, which helps Fed since at 28 it’s not as easy to recover (in the USO he played the 2nd semifinal, giving Delpo, who is 8 years Fed’s junior, more time to rest).

If Delpo faces Rafa in the semis, for me it’s game, set, match Delpo. I don’t see Rafa getting to the semi anyway, and if he does, that’s as far as he’ll go.

I don’t see Delpo crumbling under the weight of his new found celebrity in the tennis world. This is a guy who got double-bagled by Fed in the AO last year, then pushed Fed to the brink in RG, where he wasn’t broken for 3.5 sets(on clay!!!), and then controlled his emotions even though he was devastated when Fed won the third set in the USO final. The guy has nerves of steel.

In a Murray vs. Fed scenario, I go with Fed, because in their only five setter so far, Fed won in straights, and Fed now has two staight wins over Murray, both on hard courts, including their last meeting in Murray’s own backyard.

So yeah, makes sense Fed is the favorite. He’s still the king.

January 10th, 2010 at 6:51 pm

Interesting. Has anyone done any analysis of how closely these pre-tourney odds correspond with the eventual outcome?

I’m a believer in the wisdom of crowds. Just wondering how valid it is in tennis.

–Andy

http://tenniswire.wordpress.com

January 10th, 2010 at 7:59 pm

Andy, the AO is already the least predictable of all slams. Many players had their debut slam final over there. The fact that it’s held so early in the season and the fairness of the AO surface that suits all playing styles makes it very hard to predict who will wind up with the trophy.

January 10th, 2010 at 8:19 pm

Kimo: So you see Fed winning against JMDP whilst Nadal not having even a zilch of a chance against the Argentine? Once again, it seems to me like a wishful thinking from a Fed fan who simply doesn’t want to see Nadal (once again) bringing the Swiss to tears ;-) Anyway, fine. Fact is, JMDP simply crushed Nadal in that USO semi, and there really isn’t any reason why he couldn’t do that again, but what about him and Fed? Did you even see that YEC match in London between these two? Fed didn’t play bad at all, yet the guy didn’t allow him absolutely ANYTHING in the first 1 and 1/2 sets! Since Fed turned pro, I saw at least 300-400 of his matches, but I can honestly tell you that this was one of those rare occassions where I felt he got simply outplayed. In other words, no matter how hard he tried (and he certainly did!), JMDP was simply too good for him… You say he played out of his mind in the last 2 sets of that USO final, but IMHO, here he played EVEN BETTER!

Btw, why should JMDP have had an advantage over Fed in that USO final when playing his semi as first? As far as I remember, Fed won his semi against Djoker in straights, didn’t he? If you’re not satisfied with the current format, then what about staging both semifinals SIMULTANEOUSLY on 2 different courts? Would that be OK for you - as a TV viewer who wants to see both matches LIVE AND IN THEIR ENTIRE DURATION??? I doubt it…

January 10th, 2010 at 8:19 pm

i actually for once agree with the odds of both the men and women…….i do disagree with nadal being second favorite despite being the defending champion, and i think the loss to davydenko will hurt him more than we think………anybody who watched the semi between davydenko and federer knows that federer did not come close to pushing himself to win……..predictions:

federer def. davydenko
delpotro def. nadal

federer def. delpotro

clisters def. williams

January 10th, 2010 at 8:31 pm

Skorocel said:

“Kimo: So you see Fed winning against JMDP whilst Nadal not having even a zilch of a chance against the Argentine? Once again, it seems to me like a wishful thinking from a Fed fan who simply doesn’t want to see Nadal (once again) bringing the Swiss to tears ;-)”

Fed didn’t lose to Delpo 2,2 and 2, pal. In fact, Fed lost his way for some reason in the middle of the 2nd set in the US Open final after he was bossing Delpo all the way in the 1st. Maybe that was because Delpo was playing better, maybe it was because Roger got careless as he does sometimes. Nevertheless, it was a loss Roger shouldn’t be ashamed of.

But 2, 2 and 2? Come on!!!! No way in hell Rafa beats Delpo.

January 10th, 2010 at 9:10 pm

Kimo, I think it’s too soon to know how meaningful the 2,2,2 loss is. As I mentioned to Cindy_Brady on the other thread, Delpo’s only 3 wins over Rafa came last year, all on hardcourt, and 2 out of the 3 occurred after Rafa’s injury. So it’s worth at least keeping that in mind. The Miami loss, pre-injury, was 4-6, 6-3 and 6-7, and so was much tighter overall. If / when they play again, I’d expect more of that kind of scoreline. It could go either way, presuming both are well.

January 10th, 2010 at 9:23 pm

“No way in hell Rafa beats Delpo.”

We’re talking about Rafael Nadal, 6 time grand slam champion, 1 USO away from a career slam, not, I don’t know, Gilles Simon or something. Hell, that doesn’t apply to Simon either, or anyone. This is tennis, anything can happen on any given day.

January 10th, 2010 at 9:24 pm

jane and Ben:

Believe me I know how great a champion Rafa is. I really do, but considering the fact that Delpo’s beaten Rafa three stright times on hard courts, that Rafa was playing his best tennis back in Miami and still lost, that Rafa doesn’t have much confidence right now, that Delpo is now a slam champion, that the AO is played on hard courts, that hard courts are still tricky for Rafa’s knees, etc. etc. No way in hell Rafa beats Delpo.

I don’t think what I’m saying is too far a stretch, wouldn’t you agree?

January 10th, 2010 at 9:35 pm

The fact that Murray is a co-2nd with Nadal says more about homers betting for their faves than his real odds. There’s just no way a guy who made 0 slam finals last year and has never won should be with Nadal and ahead of DelPo. I think Murray is a great player who belongs in the same tier with these guys, definitely has a shot, but this is just silly.

Gonna be a hell of a tourney, I can hardly wait. I’m expecting a child in the next week, so I’ll be up for the late night matches anyways! Everythings coming up Vagabond!

January 10th, 2010 at 9:39 pm

You’re absolutely right Vagabond. As Mats Wilander said: You can’t be a favorite to win a slam until you win a slam.

January 10th, 2010 at 11:41 pm

Nalbandian just pulled out of Auckland with an ab tear- likely to pull out of Oz as well.
Crap.

January 11th, 2010 at 2:17 am

I’m no doctor but it seems like ab injuries are common when a player is coming back from a long lay off. Nadal and Del Potro had problems last year, now Nalby. Damn tennis.

January 11th, 2010 at 2:42 am

My bet is Djoko to win this, I’m sure at least he’ll get to the semis. Hoping that he’s in the same form than at the end of last season. I also see Delpo and Fed there.

January 11th, 2010 at 5:36 am

Why in Hell is Andy Murray the the odds makers 2nd choice??

Nadal is the defending champion, Djokovic has won this event before. Daveydenko is the hottest player on tour. Del Potro is the defending U.S Open champion. All have credentials greater than Murray at this moment in time. Yet all these players (for some mysterious reason) are less likely to win this event than Murray. Murray has never even reached the AO final. What logical reason could there possibly be??

That he is due?

Sounds more like witch craft and Voodoo thinking to me than sound tennis reasoning.

January 11th, 2010 at 10:49 am

I find myself amazed at anyone who would ever say NEVER when it comes to Rafa. But then, on this site I am not surprised. Talking in absolutes means precisely nothing. It may make the person saying it feel better, but it has nothing to do with reality.

I remember when many on this site were crowing about a pre-ordained Fed victory in the US Open. In fact, someone even had the gall to say that they should just award Fed the trophy! That’s when I came on here and said that no one is ever a sure thing at any grand slam. It’s worth remembering.

I don’t give two cents about the odds. It’s what happens on the court that counts, thank goodness. Rafa is getting much closer to peak form and should never be counted out by anybody. The very idea that he could NEVER beat Delpo, is beyond insulting.

Jane,

Thank you for being the voice of reason here. You reminded everyone that Delpo’s two most recent victories were against a Rafa just coming back from injury, nowhere near peak form and, particularly in the US Open semifinal, suffering from an abdominal tear. If anyone here seriously thinks that the result in the AO will be the same, should Delpo and Rafa meet again, then they don’t know anything about tennis and nothing about Rafa!

January 11th, 2010 at 5:23 pm

What a bummer for Nalbandian, I was looking forward to see him play. Too bad his injury happened in the most important time of the year..oh well..get well soon nalby.

January 11th, 2010 at 6:47 pm

I’m hoping that venus williams lifts the daphne ackhurst trophy this year.

As for clijsters being the favorate, reason dictates that the odds are just that odds.

I do remember a certain ranked 81st in d world winning d australian open a few yrs back.

January 12th, 2010 at 3:33 am

Mindy aka Nativenewyorker aka NNY ;) nice to see you back true to form on tennis-x despite all the melodramatic ‘am never going back to that website with crazy people’ goodbyes last year. You blog here, so you are ‘one of us’ on this oh-so-terrible website! lol. Seems like the grass is not all that much greener on the other side. I guess Santoro is not the only one who ‘retires’. Lol.

January 12th, 2010 at 5:49 am

TennisTalk,

I am glad crazy people post here? I am a huge fan of the crazy person’s point of view. It’s so refreshing from the hum drum dribble we get from the boring tennis media types who rarely tell us the truth.

Bring on the Nut Jobs!

January 12th, 2010 at 10:02 am

Davidenko or Nadal and Kim Klijsters or Svetlana Kuznetsova.

January 12th, 2010 at 3:56 pm

TennisTalk,

Whoever you are, don’t presume to speak for me and tell me who and what I am and what I think. If you have been here for any time at all, you would know that I rarely post on this site. I am hardly what you would call a regular. But I do come back from time to time and occasionally post my thoughts, which is my right to do. If you don’t like it, then feel free to ignore what I say. Believe me, it won’t bother me one bit!

As far as pastures looking greener, I do continue to regularly post on tennistalk, where a Rafa fan actually has a reasonable chance to express their opinion without having to endure outrageous vitriolic personal attacks.

Don’t worry, I am not back here! You think you are really smart, because you figured out my two screen names. I guess it was the “melodramatic” quality that outed me. Also, I am entitled to change my mind and “unretire”, but your smarmy, nasty tone is a good reminder of what I would face should I ever decide to post here on a more regular basis. Don’t worry, it won’t happen.

January 12th, 2010 at 4:24 pm

Mindy aka Nativenewyorker aka NNY;)

As I said, true to form. The very best of you!!! Thanks for telling us the other website that you post on even though I did not mention it. lol. I see even there, right now, you are lecturing people left, right & center. Being the high & mighty better than thouggh prefect. But it’s very interesting, so thanks for the laughs & giggles. Good to see that even there, you are called out every now & then.

You gave your long melodramatic goodbyes & always trash-talking about this websit. lol.

“Don’t worry, I am not back here!”
And here you are posting!! ROTFLOL

“but your smarmy, nasty tone is a good reminder”
It would help to look in the mirror when posting on both sites.

“Also, I am entitled to change my mind and “unretire”,”
Yes, just like Santoro, you certainly are and nobody has told you not to. It’s a free world.

January 12th, 2010 at 4:41 pm

Cindy_Brady: LOL :)

January 12th, 2010 at 6:49 pm

LMAO at Mindi and TennisTalk,

Let the sin begin!!

January 12th, 2010 at 6:55 pm

It’s too bad that Tennistalk had to use a fake screen name to hide his/her identity. It’s someone who obviously goes to tennistalk, so they know me from that site. But if I think about it, I can probably figure out who this coward is.

Cindy,

I am happy that you’re happy and laughing. I am pleased to provide amusement to some, if nothing else. But I should have known better than to show up here. It’s also nice to know that some remember me leaving this site some time ago. I wouldn’t think I was nearly that important, but then some people here seem to have nothing better to do.

January 12th, 2010 at 9:57 pm

Interesting story about appearance fees.

http://www.watoday.com.au/sport/tennis/wta-tour-gives-green-light-to-appearance-pay-20100112-m4rh.html

January 12th, 2010 at 11:10 pm

I’m worried about Venus. It’s almost like she is going to retire. I hope she can win the AO even though she has won more than enough.

January 12th, 2010 at 11:14 pm

Mindy, don’t sweat it; just keep enjoying tennis and Rafa.

January 13th, 2010 at 12:24 am

Hi Kimo, Jane and all others I have had conversations with - problem with laptop connection for some reason (snowing badly in UK right now, American compatriots), so not been able to log on for a day or so.

Well, not long to go now, and would like to post a short extract from Dan Silver which I found yesterday - it’s not the full article (so Mary, dont tell me off!). I wanted to post some of it though, particularly for Huh, when he/she returns and also for Contador/Zoey (great that you are back!) - got your message on the other thread Conty, so thanks - I am sticking with Federer. Who knows what 2010 will bring,

Contador, I hear what you are saying, but I think it will be down to motivation and hunger of ALL players, not just federer - and I think that Federer has given numerous interviews that he is still motivated and still wants to improve on his slam record, so full support is behind him. If you are not a federer fan, scroll through the rest -

January 13th, 2010 at 3:33 am

Same questions as a champion returns
DAN SILKSTONE
January 13, 2010

Roger Federer wasted no time beginning preparation for the Australian Open by practising at Rod Laver Arena yesterday.

As in life, it is hard to beat a classy return; and so, once again, to Roger Federer. The 15-time grand slam champion flew into Melbourne yesterday and while it is a new year and a new Open, the same old questions begin it. Can Federer stay on top for another year and how far can the Swiss extend his extraordinary dominance?

A year ago these questions related to the challengers snapping at his heels: Andy Murray, who brought sizzling form into the Open, and Rafael Nadal, who had established dominion over Federer on clay and appeared to be extending his territory outwards like an ambitious field marshal.

But those challenges, like so many others, were ultimately withstood. Nadal claimed the Australian Open in an epic but it was the younger Spaniard whose body let him down in 2009 while Federer grabbed two grand slam titles - including his first French Open and the ”career slam” that has eluded all but Andre Agassi in the modern era. He also took Pete Sampras’ record of 14 grand slam titles. Statistically, at least, he is now peerless.

On the court, Federer held his ground in 2009. Sometimes, in a brutal rally, that is all you can hope to do. Off the court, his influence as a global icon only grew as his main challenger for that title, Tiger Woods, imploded.

To welcome him yesterday, at a light training session, there were more cameras than most players face in a grand slam match. It has long been so and if he even noticed their presence, he did not show it.

He was back where he has spent so many hours - on centre court at Rod Laver Arena, under a closed roof and with the lights on despite the sapping sunshine outside.

He is always respectful of that court and the name it bears, though he has long overhauled Laver’s 11 grand slam titles and the 14 of Sampras to stand alone in history’s reckoning. It is, though, almost three years since he won his last Australian Open and that will not sit well.
This year the preparation is slightly different. Having been eliminated by Nikolay Davydenko in Doha last week he has opted simply to practise this week rather than contest the round-robin tournament at Kooyong, replaced at the last minute in that field yesterday by Croatian Ivan Ljubicic.

There was talk of a sore forearm but little sign of it, though, as Federer whipped his characteristic wristy forehand into both corners, raising a sweat from not one but two hitting partners and barely breaking one himself.

Again his rivals wait to depose him; mostly they are the same men. Nadal, who has had his measure in recent grand slam finals but who struggled with injury in the second half of last year, and Murray, still promising plenty and still yet to deliver fully on that promise at one of the year’s four majors. Add to that in-form Davydenko - who disposed of both Federer and Nadal in Doha - and the emerging power of Argentina’s US Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro and it will not be comfortable. Summer in Australia seldom is.

January 13th, 2010 at 3:37 am

Jane,

You better not encourage me. Some people here may not like it! I just wasn’t aware that you could come back to a site from time to time after you left.

What this person doesn’t realize is that I come here at times just to lurk and read. Sometimes the discussions are quite interesting. The love of the sport of tennis lures me to read as many opinions as possible. I actually like different points of view.

I have always loved your posts. There are a few people here who have a wealth of knowledge and great analysis of the game and the top players.

I will definitely enjoy seeing Rafa at the AO. I am really quite thrilled with the way he is playing. He’s doing even better than I expected. I think this AO could be one of the most wide open ones ever. It looks like the heat is going to be atrocious again. It may well be survival of the fittest.

Thanks for your kind words. But I want to reassure any who are dismayed to see me reappear, if only briefly. I will not be posting on a regular basis. But I will definitely be reading the comments with interest!

January 13th, 2010 at 4:08 pm

Andy is not punters’ favourite, or even second, here in UK, think Fed is tops right now.

January 13th, 2010 at 4:51 pm

Mindy: TennisTalk is Von, our resident nut. She needs an outlet right now.

January 13th, 2010 at 4:59 pm

Margot - I know you’re hopeful re: Murray’s chances in Oz but weren’t you surprised that he’s a favorite (per the article)? I certainly was.

January 13th, 2010 at 5:50 pm

“Mindy: TennisTalk is Von, our resident nut. She needs an outlet right now.” — GoatGalz
________________
LOOOL, I’m thrilled to know I can provide such entertainment for the mindless one!! Way to go GG/CB. You’re so besotted with me! Here’s a sloppy kiss for your efforts, mwah, mwah. Did you feel it??

Not that I care what you write about me, but for any others and the record, I’ve NEVER used an alias on Tennis.X or any other web-site for Tennis blogging. Unlike her goatness, who has used several aliases (5 that I know of) and is interchanging two of them at the present time on Tennis.X., working them over and over, I have the CHUTZPAH, self-respect, and courage of my convictions, whereby I to stand behind what I say, and don’t have to suck up to anyone = I don’t need to stoop so low as to hide behind an alias post name.

Further, I think I know enough of the law than to use “TennisTalk” as a post name. I hope the poster so doing, realizes that there are legal ramifications involved when using a registered Website’s name as ‘her’ personal post name.

Additionally, I don’t see what ‘TennisTalk’ hopes to gain by ridiculing Mindy, considering TennisTalk is very two-faced on both sites — praises Fed on this site and used to ridicule him on TennisTalk, big time. I know she hates Nadal and hates me also. OY. What a tangled web we weave, when at first we practice to deceive.
_________________
Mindy: I think you know me better and know that I’d never stab you in the back by ridiculing you. Don’t worry, the phoney ones are always caught when they least expect it, and I love to see when they are brought to light. Post as often as you like and let the jealous ones burn up in acidity, whenever you post.
_________________
I’D like to say “Hello”, to Mary, Daniel, my sweetheart, Long Live (I’m still waiting for our date to materialize, LOL) and jane, for your welcome back wishes. However, I don’t think I’ll be back here on a regular basis. Oh, BTW, Long Live, ‘A Happy new year to you’ also.

January 13th, 2010 at 6:29 pm

Von,

Never change. Your crazy as Hell. It spices up this joint.

Mindy,

You too, stay the same. Self absorbed posters like you are a great read.

TennisTalk,

Who ever you may be, please continue what you are doing. You are a credit to both sites.

LOL

January 13th, 2010 at 7:42 pm

Von - Good to see your typing! Happy New Year girl! Saw that Roddick will not be playing DC. I think that is a very wise decision on his part. And God knows he has nothing left to prove DC-wise. What’s your take?

January 13th, 2010 at 8:33 pm

Von,

Never in a million years would I think that was you! I do know you better than that. If you know who it is, I would be interested to know. You gave me some hints. Believe me, I won’t be staying here. I mainly lurk and read. But I have missed you on tennistalk. Thanks for pointing out that using a site’s registered name can be a violation. Whoever this coward is, they deserve to get in trouble. It’s pathetic to have to hide who you are.

Cindy,

Well, that was a backhanded compliment if ever there was one! You are entitled to your opinion, but I am not the one who came on here hiding behind a tennis site name to attack someone else. However, I don’t think I care to be a source of amusement to you any longer.

January 13th, 2010 at 11:38 pm

Von, at least pop in from time to time. The more the merrier. : ]

January 13th, 2010 at 11:46 pm

LMAO,

This is the only name I have ever used. LuLz. Never even posted on any other tennis site before. Priceless! A quick IP check would prove that.

Von is delusional/paranoid as always. What a pearl of wisdom she is not.

Don’t worry Jane. I’m sure Von is always posting here in some disguise or another. If Roddick does well at the AO, she will use her “Von” screen name. If he doesn’t than she will morph into one of her other personalities/aliases/screen names condemning those who dare to criticize Roddick. Than she will Suddenly be “Von” again talking to herself and her other screen names. Sybil is in the house. LOL

Again, priceless. Let the crazys and nut jobs run wild!

January 14th, 2010 at 10:45 am