Why I’m Picking Rafael Nadal To Win Wimbledon; Venus, Berdych, Isner Upset On Day One
by Sean Randall | June 25th, 2012
  • 184 Comments

When the draw came out I picked Rafael Nadal to beat Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon final two Sundays from now. After a few days to mull it over further I’m sticking with that selection. Why?

First, Nadal has reached how many straight Wimbledon finals? The last five times he’s played at Wimbledon he’s made the finals, winning twice. That’s damn good and with his draw this year it’s too hard to ignore!

Second, despite his inability to win titles off of clay of late – it’s been over 18 months now – Nadal is playing well. He was in the finals at Wimbledon last year plus the US Open and this year the Australian Open, so he must be doing something right, right? He just keeps running into that guy from Serbia.

Third, it’s because the player on the other side of the net isn’t as good as he once was. Now that could be Roger Federer, who is still tough on any surface however at age 30 the Swiss has lost some of that timing. Honestly, though, I’m really talking about Djokovic. In my opinion the Serb was about 10-15% stronger a year ago than he is now. And he knows it. That said, he showed some signs of life in the French final so perhaps he could get it right and get back to that superhuman being we saw last year and even late in Australia back in January. Though even if he does recapture it I think grass is Novak’s weakest surface, where he’s most vulnerable.

Fourth, there’s no denying Nadal’s draw. He’s got some tricky opponents but he avoided danger guys like Milos Raonic, Sam Querrey, Ernests Gulbis, Ivo Karlovic and the like who can get hot for a few hours and create a stir. Nadal does have to deal with Tomaz Bellucci, Tommy Haas or Phil Kohlscreiber and then potentially JW Tsonga. But Tsonga, who stunned Federer a year ago, is iffy with that finger injury on his right hand. And I just don’t think anyone has it in his section to beat him. A healthy Tsonga could, but I’m not sold.

Plus, semifinal matches against Andy Murray, Andy Roddick or David Ferrer shouldn’t scare Rafa. Hell, they don’t scare me! If Raonic were to make it there that’d be interesting, and a surprise because I think the Canadian needs a little more seasoning on the lawns.

So again, I think Nadal is playing well, Djokovic/Federer are not and until that changes I’m with Rafa on this one. He’s won twice before and the mojo appears to be back, the injuries long gone (for now) and Spain is winning again in some soccer event. It’s almost in the air…

As for today, what an opener at Wimbledon. What I thought would be a quiet day offering little drama turned into an afternoon of upsets.

Five-time winner Venus Williams sadly walked off the courts courtesy of Russian Elena Vesnina. Venus appeared to be a shadow of her self as Sjogren’s Syndrome continues to impede her play. I wonder, as many of you do I’m sure, if that’s the last we’ll see of Venus on the Wimbledon courts in a Grand Slam setting – she’ll play later next month at the Olympics. My guess is that is was.

Another American John Isner continued to struggle. After coming out hot this year scoring wins over Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic, Giant John has cooled considerably or simply put, he has run out of gas. The 11th-seeded Isner was handed another five-set loss this time by Colombian Alejandro Falla. That’s the same Falla who nearly knocked out Roger Federer a few years ago at Wimbledon.

“Lately it’s happening quite a lot, [where] I get out there in the match and I’m just so clouded. I just can’t seem to figure things out,” said Isner. “I’m my own worst enemy out there. It’s all mental for me, and it’s pretty poor on my part.”

If Isner is really going to be a consistent force in tennis he’ll need to be smarter about what he can and cannot do. You can’t be burnt out in June.

Then it was Tomas Berdych’s turn to go down in flames, and he didn’t disappoint. The sixth-seeded former finalist fell in three tiebreaks to someone named Ernests Gulbis. I remember a kid named Ernests but then he fell off the map, is this the same happy-go-lucky fellow? Apparently so. Gulbis bombed 30 aces sending the Berd-man crashing down.

“I saw the draw and I was really happy.I wantedto play the first round against a tough opponent,” Gulbis said.

“It motivates me much more,especially in the first round. The beginning of this year I really doubted a lot. I had a lot of thinking because I didn’t like the way I was playing at all. I was too defensive,too uptight. I was thinking what to do and it was a tough time.

“I have been working hard last month with a new coach Gunther Bresnik who is based in Austria,” Gulbis added. “I asked him to come to Paris and Wimbledon as well; it’s been really good.

“He really helped me a lot (and) I have been practising well. In the practices I beat everybody.”

With Berdych and Isner out, the road for Federer and Djokovic just got that much easier, and there’s no reason they won’t clash in the semifinals. Next for Novak is Ryan Harrison who could catch fire and steal a set. Maybe Richard Gasquet can do the same in the quarters, otherwise it’s hard to make a case the Serb won’t reach the last four.

Federer’s draw is just as easy. Fabio Fognini is on deck Wednesday, then Juliean Benneteau, maybe Xavier Malisse. Perhaps Janko Tipsarevic in the quarters? Janko’s good but not that good?

Looking at tomorrow, Nadal and Murray both open play and I think they both win with ease. Bernard Tomic and David Goffin should be fun, I like the Aussie to win that. Kevin Anderson and Grigor Dmitrov is maybe the best match on the board. And Del Potro, Karlovic, Querrey, Lopez, Fish, Roddick and Raonic should keep the ace counters busy. Tsonga also meets former champ Lleyton Hewitt in the Australian’s Swan t-Song-a.

Serena Williams returns to play on the same court, Court 2, on which her sister lost today. Why relegated to Court 2? I can’t explain. Defending champ Petra Kvitova, Caroline Wozniacki and Victoria Azarenka also headline.

Matches begin at 6:30am ET and ESPN2 comes on at 7am ET.

TUESDAY WIMBLEDON SCHEDULE

Centre Court 1:00 PM Start Time
Akgul Amanmuradova (UZB) v. Petra Kvitova (CZE)[4]
Thomaz Bellucci (BRA) v. Rafael Nadal (ESP)[2]
Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) v. Andy Murray (GBR)[4]

No. 1 Court 1:00 PM Start Time
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)[5] v. Lleyton Hewitt (AUS)
Irina Falconi (USA) v. Victoria Azarenka (BLR)[2]
Jamie Baker (GBR) v. Andy Roddick (USA)[30]

No. 2 Court 11:30 AM Start Time
Bernard Tomic (AUS)[20] v. David Goffin (BEL)
Serena Williams (USA)[6] v. Barbora Zahlavova Strycova (CZE)
Robin Haase (NED) v. Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG)[9]
Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)[7] v. Tamira Paszek (AUT)


Also Check Out:
Berdych Beating Roddick on Monday at Wimbledon? Stay Tuned!
Favorites Federer, Murray, Roddick, Djokovic Looking Good in Wimbledon Quarters
Pironkova Stuns Venus, Clijsters Also Upset in Wimbledon QFs; Serena in Charge
John Isner And Tomas Berdych Have Pulled Out Of The Winston-Salem Open
Serena Tops Sister Venus Williams for Wimbledon Crown

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184 Comments for Why I’m Picking Rafael Nadal To Win Wimbledon; Venus, Berdych, Isner Upset On Day One

trufan Says:

As usual, 3 out of the 3 semi final opponents are set. The only question is who will Nadal get in the semi.

That said, this is grass. This is Wimbledon. If federer gets to the semi, he will be 2 matches away from another shot at God like status in tennis (7 wimbledons, 17 slams, no 1 ranking record…). I still think he can beat Djokovic on grass, and also Nadal. If Federer is not the same as he was in 2006, Nadal is not the Nadal he was in 2010. And if the roof closes – Nadal can’t beat Federer when there is no wind at all, and the shot making becomes easier.

I hope Murray gets another shot at Nadal in the semi, and finally beats him.


Voicemale1 Says:

I’d agree with that on the same basis. And add this: last year was a totally different dynamic at work than this year. Last year the ATP Tour – and Nadal most painfully – was in the grip of The Djokovic Vice. No such vice grip exists this year. Moreover, it’s Djokovic who might be playing with more pressure: he could leave Wimbledon this year as the #3 ranked player in the world after seizing the #1 ranking at the same event last year. In all the blogosphere and TV talking head land, I have yet to see or hear anyone point out an alarming stat from Djokovic: his serve is getting broken right and left these days, and has been since Indian Wells. During Roland Garros, Djokovic dropped Serve a horrifying 25 times in two weeks. Only his first match there went “break-free”. It’s to his credit that he reached the Final on guts alone – along with some considerable help from a choking Tsonga and a Federer who actually dropped Serve more than Djokovic in thier SF. And speaking of choking, let’s remember that Djokovic stared at Nadal down Championship Point in his last TWO matches against him – and choked from the weight of the pressure by Double Faulting away both titles to him. What a difference a year makes. Djokovic did drop his Serve once today against Ferrero. If Djokovic doesn’t clean up the hemorrhaging breaksfrom his clay court Spring, he won’t be able to break his foes often enough on grass to get away with it like he culd on clay.

Federer? If he meets Djokovic in their seeded SF, it means Djokovic has fixed the serve problems he’s been having. In which case it’s a big ask for Federer to get through Djokovic in a Best of Five and then a Final Best of Five, presumably against Nadal. If it is Nadal, then Federer having too beat both of them back-to-back in a Best of Five format is a big ask. Federer in Majors against them both is 1-9 going back 5 years for Nadal and 3 years for Djokovic. If Federer has no Djokovic to get through and then meets Nadal, that could be a very interesting match to watch, because they’ve each won 4 titles this year. And each of them has a shot at #1 by the time this tournament is over. But agree with you. Nadal is playing well and is a lot more pressure free this year than last year, and that should mnake him especially dangerous.


trufan Says:

This is grass, not clay, so rallies are shorter, points are shorter. Best of 5 shouldn’t be a problem for Fed.


skeezer Says:

trufan.

Re; Fed in a 5 setter. He can handle it on grass, I agree. BUT…if he has a bunch of 5 setters that could be an issue?


metan Says:

Trufan

Glad to read your post without all those bla bla bla,,,
Roger played like James Bond, if he keeps this he can beat nole, coz nole was little bit patchy at first set, n need to see for next round how he will play, but Roger stamina is a big question,


Brando Says:

my take is…. I AGREE with sean, for the following:

1- Rafa’s track records at wimby cannot be denied. Last 5 appearances have equaled 2 wins and 3 RUs. Clearly after fed he has the best record on grass in recent times. Long story short, he’s fantastic on this surface.

2- He’s playing better this year. Rafa has said this himself, and i think most would also agree to this too. Generally speaking: the serve seems better (2nd serve isn’t quite the same gimme for opponents), he seems to be CONTROLLING points with the FH, not avoiding the BH, fewer short balls etc. All in all he seems to have cleared up on the weaknesses from last year- the biggest one being the following:

3- CONFIDENCE. Rafa seems more self assured, at ease with himself and confident in his abilities moreso this year than last year. This is a major thing for any top athlete- you feel good about yourself, and things will click.

4- The djokovic question: W/O looking to analyse too much into this (it can get tricky), last year he was 0-4 going into wimby against his biggest rival. This year he’s 3-1- and in that 1 loss he was 4-2 in the 5th set. That’s a MUCH BETTER place to be for rafa.

All in all, he’s in a better place than last year at this point.


Brando Says:

Last year in the final, imo, there were a few issues for rafa that may have changed this year:

1- He was playing with a MENTAL BLOCK against novak. As a fan of his it’s not nice to say this, but it’s true and rafa even admitted this after the match. he WAS NEVER in with a chance if he didn’t believe he could win. The match was over before it started- such is the importance of this particular area. This time round he was more self belief in himself.

2- Novak was at his ABSOLUTE PEAK. stats don’t lie here- he’d only lost 1 match prior to that final. This year, he’s not the same- if at least for the fact that he has lost more often.

3- grass is novak’s WEAKEST OUTDOOR surface. May sound silly saying this as he is a wimby champion, but in my opinion this is his weakest surface (and i’m sure he’ll admit to this). That matters.

In summary, my genuine GUT FEELING is that it shall be a FEDAL final.

I think roger is due to win one against novak, and then in the final i honestly do not know which way it shall go as it is a close call.

Either way, it’s all SPECULATION and time shall tell……


Kimmi Says:

Gulbis!!! How far can he get now? hope he continues with this form in the next match. he is good to watch when he is on..


Dave Says:

Nadal should beat R1 Bellucci (No. 80), R2 Dodig (No. 99), R3 Haas (No 50, four sets), R4 Feli Lopez (No. 17, less likely No. 21 Dolgopolov)

In the quarterfinal, Nadal gets No. 6 Tsonga (less likely Wawrinka). By that time Tsonga’s sprained little finger should have either healed or he has lost. If it has healed, he may be rusty, but still good enough to take Nadal 4 to 5 tough sets on grass, maybe even beat him.

In the semifinal, it will most likely be No. 9 Juan Martin del Potro (less likely No. 22 Milos Raonic, even less likely No. 4 Andy Murray, least likely David Ferrer). Delpo will relish a chance at Nadal on the grass again, having pushed Nadal to the point Nadal took his infamous ‘medical time out’ just before the first set tiebreak. Delpo takes out Nadal.

If not Federer does, of course.


joan Says:

nadal ,nole ,roger are all fantastic players. give kudos to these guys. this is not your 9 to 5 day job. they work hard both mentally and physically on court.i bet the likes of you cant do 5 sit ups. yet you open your mouth passing out premature shit. this is sport , you have your moment . you cant always win. use your brains. they guys have achived so much in life, what have you?


Kimberly Says:

Gulbis has a tremendous game. That was some serious big boy tennis. Gulbis can hang with Berdy powerwise for sure.


roy Says:

yes the old nadal can’t win a title off clay, except he makes gs finals which is typically harder than winning a masters title.
let’s just drop the whole ‘titles won’ crap. it means next to nothing when there is such a huge difference in difficulty between tournaments from 250-slam.
has nobody noticed this? hint: the atp gives you less points for winning a 250 then for making a masters final.

it’s like saying federer is poor on clay because he barely wins clay titles. it’s absurd.

also, raonic is not more difficult than murray. particularly over 5sets.
murray is not an easy opponent for rafa. i don’t know where this comes from. yes nadal has a winning record. but all the GS matches are tough.
and wimbledon may be where murray plays his best tennis.


TampaFl Says:

If not Federer does, of course.

Dave,

That is your Fed love talking. How about a realistic assessment about who wins Wimbledon.

I would love if you prove it is going to be Fed like you do everywhere else :).


Kimberly Says:

for all basketball fans here is a great link to celebrate Miami Heat’s recent championship. For those not interested in BBall skip it. Sorry for the non-tennis related post but how often does your team win the championship (although I fully expect 4 more in a row)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Ctn6GgooNI


Wog boy Says:

Just watching replay from last night, Nole made all mistakes he could in tha third game of the first se, that was enough mistakes for one set nevertheless for one game. It is interesting to listen Boris Becker as commentator for the first time:)


Wog boy Says:

First time that I have a chance to Boris not that it is his first time.


Tennis Vagabond Says:

Agree with BRando, regarding Rafa’s game: he is serving better and his volleying is top notch now.

Aside on the volley: Rafa doesn’t have the all-round net game Fed has, but he can hit that sharp, deep Edberg like shot that Fed struggles with. A lot of Fed’s volleys can be returned, when Rafa makes one it usually ends the point. Quite different from their backcourt games.
End Aside.

I disagree with Roy regarding Murray’s danger to Rafa. Murray has shown he can beat Rafa on hard courts (and has done so twice in Slams). But he’s never smelled a victory over Rafa on grass. Excepting one good set last year, that annual semifinal has not gotten any tighter.
So certainly Rafa is sitting in a good position starting out. But lets make him play the matches and see what happens anyways.


sar Says:

Kimberly,
I can relate about having a winning BB team. My team won 2 three-peats. :-)


Humble Rafa Says:

Dear author,

Thanks for picking me to win the grass is for cows tournament in Englishland. I love Englishland, but I am no favorite. To win, I need to play a few 5 set matches. Your Humble Highness is like Madonna. I only getter better by playing more. With all the minions in my half of the draw, I don’t see any 5 set matches. Few straight sets win, then a straight set loss.


Humble Rafa Says:

Sorry for the non-tennis related post but how often does your team win the championship (although I fully expect 4 more in a row)

OMG. Why only 4. Washing machines are the only thing in South Beach that comes with a guarantee…


Nirmal Kumar Says:

Agree with BRando, regarding Rafa’s game: he is serving better and his volleying is top notch now.

I have never seen Rafa do a S & V or come in after an approach shot yet. He reaches net on a dead baseline hit. Not sure if that can be qualified as a top volleying skill.


Nirmal Kumar Says:

I can’t understand the logic of having Rafa’s match in CC, when Roger played at Court 1. If the schedule was per competitive match then the match on CC should have been between Tsonga vs Hewitt.


Wog boy Says:

NK,

Are you serious, what Roger has to do with second day of Wimbledon when he doesn’t even play?
Second, on what ground do you put Tsonga/Hewitt ahead of Nadal/Belluci. That would be insult to Tennis to put Nadal at the #1 court and Tsonga to CC, there is certain order that has to be respected. Yesterday it was Novak as defender on CC and today is Nadal as #2 in the world, last year finalist, two time winner, this year best player to date! What else do you need to put the bloke on CC:)


Nirmal Kumar Says:

Wog boy Says:

My comment was for putting Roger on Court 1 y’day. The general comment for having Roger play in court 1 was to have Berdych vs Gulbis on CC, since it would be a competitive match.

Novak could not have moved to Court1 since he is the defending champ.

If you apply the same logic, better competitive match today would have been between Tsonga vs Hewitt compared to Nadal vs Belluci. Ofcourse Murray plays at CC.

Applying your logic of Nadal’s credentials, then Roger tops on all the stats in Grass compared to Nadal. They why would you have Roger in Court 1 and play Berdych in CC.

I’m not against Nadal playing in CC, I’m questioning the Wimbledon committee’s rational in scheduling the matches at CC. For me both Roger and Rafa deserve to play in the CC through the tournament.


Michael Says:

Yeah I tend to agree with Sean who has picked Nadal to win the title. But I things might change if Novak manages to reach the final and I am on this court he will give Nadal a taste of his own medicine. Novak is getter better and better on grass courts and this is the court that suits his game especially to beat a player like Nadal more than hard courts. So, in case it is a Nadal-Novak final, I would give the edge to Novak but with a very tight margin 52:48. On the other hand, if Roger manages to reach the final, then Nadal would have the advantage of 60:40 although Roger is good on Grass. The age factor will play a role here especially when it is over five sets and if Roger has to have a chance he should quell Nadal in straights or maximum four. If it goes to the fifth, Nadal takes the title.


jane Says:

Nirmal, just speculating, but maybe it goes by highest ranking? So Nole #1 day one and then Rafa #2 day two; they were also the two finalists last year. As for the next men’s matches, who knows the criteria? Today they decided on Gulbis/Berd, which did turn out to be an awesome, competitive affair, and tomorrow of course they will go with Andy M, no question, for the second match.

Not sure if you saw, but Fed commented about playing on court one (I read this in a match summary – quotes are presumably from his presser?)

“Overlooked for centre court duty in favour of 2009 finalist Tomas Berdych and Latvian Ernests Gulbis, Federer said he had not been insulted by the “snub.”

“I expected it,” he said.

“Might not have the second round (men’s match) to centre court.

“That’s how I tried to understand the situation, but obviously I have no problems.

“I tried to remember when was my (last) first match on court one as a first round. Maybe 2001 against (Yevgeny) Kafelnikov. I don’t mind it.”

Last year at the US Open, after Nole had become number 1 and was having a historic year, he was none the less put on Louis Armstrong, which prompted a very long line up! This article mentions a few reasons for scheduling, but I guess broadcasting is another one to consider:

http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2011/09/05/want-to-see-djokovic-take-a-number/


Wog boy Says:

NK,

I will go back to Tsonga/Hewitt case, Tsonga is not better player than Nadal nor Hewitt is better player than Belluci so how did you work out that it is more atractive match I don’t know. Nothing suggests so, I mean Hewitt is playing tennis in beetween medical operations, sad but true.
Next, I was talking about last few years and present achievements not overall achievements. Of course Roger has six of them but last two he didn’t make it SF, even if it is Nadal’s two year ranking system Roger wouldn’t make it, no?


Nirmal Kumar Says:

Jane, Roger never makes a comment which hurts a tournament. And he is the president of Player’s council and talks only positive things. It’s for the tournaments to take care of such a great player in the right way. I can understand they move around the top players to court 1 for a single match before the quarters, but to do it on the first day of the tournament is rubbish.

For Novak being moved to Armstrong, let’s be fair. What is Novak’s credentials on USO when he had to play outside the CC. I believe he was not even a single time winner when he was moved around. But what are Roger’s credentials at Wimbledon?

But I feel it’s good for Roger. I believe this would spurt Roger more. I could see that in his play y’day. If he wins the Wimbledon, he knows then that playing in next year CC for 1st match is in his hands. Probably he would like to show it to organizers by winning the tournament. I wish he does it.


Ray Says:

there is no way rafa is winning wimbledon if he has to get through djokovic.

even though wimbledon plays like green clay, it still is not red clay.

yes rafa made 5 finals. but he is also 2/5 in those.


Ray Says:

there is no way rafa is winning wimbledon if he has to get through djokovic.

even though wimbledon plays like green clay, it still is not red clay.


Ray Says:

yes rafa made 5 finals. but he is also 2/5 in those.


Wog boy Says:

jane,

I have seen Nole’s match, alltogether it was nice game. It took him few games until he adjusted his footwork on the grass though his BH stiil goes out to often for my liking, tends to overplay FH, and those few mistakes and overheads in third game of the first set were shocking:) Major thing, serve was very good, still early to predict anything.


jane Says:

Nirmal, I am not sure they go by past credentials is all. I think they go by current ranking, firstly (the tradition of returning champion). After that, there are probably a myriad of factors to consider. And frankly isn’t it kind of nice that the court 1 crowd gets to see Fed? It must be nice as well for some of the other players to get a shot on CC. It doesn’t seem like such a big deal. I am sure Fed will play his next match versus Fognini on CC.

As for moving Nole, the problem was that while the USO saw the longest line (or one of) it’s ever seen to get into Nole’s match, apparently Arthur Ashe stadium was half empty due to the grounds pass thing; there was a WTA match in AA stadium. Sometimes schedulers make odd decisions.

http://www.tennis.com/articles/templates/features.aspx?articleid=14179&zoneid=9

I guess it’s better than the FO, where the matches begin too late and end up getting carried over to the next day’s schedule due to no lights – which happens regularly.


jane Says:

Wog Boy, yes, the serves and returns were great. I think that 3rd game was a little bit of nerves. And then he settled in thereafter. True, still some adjusting to do on the groundstrokes; he’ll want to keep the errors low. But as you say, overall it was a good start, against a quality opponent imo.


Nirmal Kumar Says:

After that, there are probably a myriad of factors to consider.

This is what I found to be stupid from the organizers. Do they have it defined or go by match-by-match basis. What really defines it.

And frankly isn’t it kind of nice that the court 1 crowd gets to see Fed?

Yep it is. But I believe it should not happen on the First round. You would like to see a great champion to walk in to CC for his first match, not to Court 1.

It doesn’t seem like such a big deal

I don’t think they would have asked Roger this question if it’s not a big deal. It’s obvious the press has noted this.


jane Says:

It would be nice to know the criteria for scheduling. But I suspect it’s one of those things that we’ll never know the logistics of. Do you recall the controversy last year, when Serena was put on court 2? She, as well, has good credentials!

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/tennis/wimbledon-2011-serena-williams-accuses-136981


Chico Says:

Me thinks boringly Rafa-Nole final, and it’s a coin toss between them. Yes, Nole is not the same as last year and Nadal has played a bit less than last year and should be fresher, but it can still go either way. How they take care of proceedings during the following ten days could make the difference.

Fed needs three sets of near godlike mode to get passed Nole, not impossible but improbable. I go Nole hoping for Fed, because then Nadole has made him produce magic.

Serena(6) “I’m gonna shove this down your throat” vs. (?) on a center court out of courtesy instead of rankings? Sean please.
If you want to argue then Tsonga(5) vs. Hewitt is a right call because it really can be a former champions swan song. A-rod vs. a brit is another no-brainer.


Dave Says:

“So again, I think Nadal is playing well, Djokovic/Federer are not and until that changes I’m with Rafa on this one.”

We’ll have a better idea of how the top players are really playing on grass by this weekend. I still have hope that the Lendl-Murray collaboration will bear fruit in this Wimbledon or US Open. In the meantime, tennis writer Simon Reed noted that — in their first round matches — Novak Djokovic looked good once he got into his match but “not as good as Roger Federer, though. He was spectacular… I’ve just got a sneaking feeling that Federer could win the tournament this year.”. [Federer's opponent Ramos may not have won a grass court match, but he is ranked No. 29 in the year-to-date (2012) rankings -- this indicates he is the hottest of the top four players' opponents. No. 52 is Nikolay Davydenko (Murray), No. 55 is Tomaz Bellucci (Nadal) and No. 125 is Juan Carlos Ferrero (Djokovic)].

“First, Nadal has reached how many straight Wimbledon finals? The last five times he’s played at Wimbledon he’s made the finals, winning twice. That’s damn good and with his draw this year it’s too hard to ignore!”

What is never considered is that in the two years Nadal won his Wimbledon titles, he had relatively easy overall draws.

Jane’s excellent link in the other blog shows the rank of the opponents of Federer’s winning Wimbledons (as well as Nadal’s winning French Opens and Sampras’s winning Wimbledons).
http://www.tennisplanet.me/blog/2012/06/nadal-sampras-and-federer-roland-garros-and-wimbledon-opponent-rank.html

In his six winning Wimbledons, the overall average ranking of Federer’s 42 opponents in all his six winning Wimbledons is 45 (41 + 92 + 35 + 40 + 30 +32 divided by 6). So apart from 1994, Federer won five Wimbledons against opponnets with an average ranking of 30 to 41.

When Nadal won his two Wimbledons, he did it against relatively easier opponentss with an average ranking of 67 in 2010 and 46 in 2008:

- Nadal: 2010 Wimbledon: Average rank 67, Semifinal 4 – 13 Final

- Nadal: 2008 Wimbledon: Average rank 46, Semifinal 94 – 1 Final

[In comparison, Federer's 2009 French Open: Average rank 40, Semifinal 5 - 25 Final]

According to my predictions, if Nadal is to win this Wimbledon, his most likely path of opponents will be: No. 80 Bellucci, No. 99 Dodig, No. 50 Haas, No 17 Feli Lopez (or No. 21 Dolgopolov), 6 Tsonga (or No. 24 Wawrinka), No 9 Juan Martin del Potro (or No. 22 Milos Raonic or No. 4 Andy Murray), No. 3 Federer (or No. 1 Djokovic). This means Nadal would have to win against an average oponent ranking of about 37% — that’s a more highly ranked draw than Nadal has succeeded against in the past at Wimbledon. If Tsonga’s finger and game are healthy, the one-two-three punch of Tsonga and Delpo/Raonic/Murray and Federer/Djokovic should be enough to knock Nadal out of Wimbledon somewhere between the quarterfinals to finals.

We all know that Nadal skipped the 2009 Wimbledon. What most don’t know or accept is that in order for Nadal to have won the 2009 Wimbledon, he would have had to beat 7 opponents with an average ranking of 28%! They would have been No. 53 Arnaud Clement, No. 56 Hewitt (former Wimbledon champ), No.55 Petzschner, No. 23 Stepanek, No. 6 Roddick (former Wimby finalist), No. 3 Murray, No. 2 Federer. That was a very level of ranking quality and grass court quality. Nadal withdrew from 2009 Wimbledon within a couple of hours of the Wimbledon draw coming out.

Thus danger lurks in Nadal’s half. In the other half, there is virtually no player in Djokovic and Federer’s quarters capable of knocking out both players (I can’t see Gulbis, Gasquet, Almagro, Seppi or Tipsarevic having the consistency to do it — Gulbis is No. 207 on year-to-date ATP rankings and has only a 28% winning record on grass probably for good reasons). The closest to a possible spoiler is Gilles Simon but only against Federer.


Sienna Says:

We are back in the TMF years. Rogers triple breadstick dinner invitation is a clear message towards his opponents.
Let see how Nadal goes along dismissing his opponent. I hope he doesnot take to long because we want the CC to stay green. Nadal probably will camp out there and try to do as much damage to the center as possible. He should be put in court #2 with his terrible court manners. Spitting and scrubbing the lines prior to receiving a serve. Just annoying.


Nims Says:

Sean, I have to agree with you. Once Nadal gets to 2nd week, it’s difficult to stop him with having FO momentum in his favour.

Also for Nadal 1st week does not reveal much at Wimbledon. He gets better only from 2nd week, but he does scrap through the 1st week. Looking at his draw, I can’t see anyone taking him till Quarters. It would have been interesting to see if he had to face Hewitt in the 1st round, but that’s not happening.

When it comes to Quarters, lot depends on Tsonga. Will he be there? That’s a tough question to answer. But if he reaches the quarters, he has the right tools to make it competitive with Nadal. But I doubt he can beat him.

Overall I don’t see any player other than Novak has any chance against Nadal. Even with Novak, I believe the favourite has to be Nadal.


Sienna Says:

on thos swift courts I really doubt Nadal can beat Fed. He can but Fed needs to be just recovered from a sickness like mono. Or he must be fysically hampered or out of shape. All of these are not the case. His triple breadstick against the # 29 in the year to date ranking is an ominous sign.People tend to make as if Fed has never beaten Nadal.

As far as I remember when both are fit and eager they will split their earning by courtsurface.

Nadal slow HC, clay whil Fed wins the fast HC and grass. Fed winning earlier in the year on slow HC is actually a strong indicator that he will rollercoast Nadal. And I don give a ratsars wether it is the 1e week, the second week or the 6th week they play at Wimbly. It remains a fast court. He cannot defeat a fit Federer. It has not been done and certainly will not be done at this Wimbly.


Sienna Says:

Probably most are youngsters and housewives who are attrackted to the looks of Nadal.

That categorie is fun to deal with on these sites because they have not got the slightless clue what it means to play a game of tennis. The youngsters are in for a sweet surprise…..

For the first time in years Roger was able to plan and implement all his training and fitness routines. And he has adjusted his schedule regarding 2011. It was at this time he peaked to soon and was in great shape at Garros only to meet Nadal on his stronger surface. The tables are turned this year.
The youngsters will witness history rejuvinated and they will tremble in future times when asked about the WIMBLY 2012 championships.
The housewives will carry on for a few weeks until Nadal is truly in his off clay season.


metan Says:

Wow, newly found roger’s advertising + pr
Will he open any tennis class soon????


Ray Says:

” Nadal withdrew from 2009 Wimbledon within a couple of hours of the Wimbledon draw coming out.”

Wow! average ranking of 28? you cant put it past nadal and his team. they try to bend as many rules in the game as possible. no wonder the guys @ THASP focus on nadal. for tennis’ sake, let’s hope those guys are wrong!

Wimbledon is Novak’s to lose. Federer can’t beat nadal. and nadal can’t beat djokovic. If djokovic plays his best, neither nadal/federer can beat him as we have seen for the last 18 months.


Paradox Says:

Nadal has got great variety o fans ,especially he attracts casual sports fans to tennis.Nadal is a great asset to tennis.


Humble Rafa Says:

Nadal has got great variety o fans ,especially he attracts casual sports fans to tennis.Nadal is a great asset to tennis.

You are so nice. I wish I could take you wherever I go.


Ray Says:

I like it how Sean Randall doesn’t talk about the pressure novak was under at the french open going for the nole slam.

To put the pressure in perspective, rafa came up with all sorts of excuses – from flu to hamstring injury to the ever-existing knee injuries, when rafa was going for a rafa slam. He was duly put out of his misery by, wait for this, DAVID FERRER. yes, the same david ferrer who has made 0 GS finals. Atleast Novak gave a better account of himself under such high-pressure situation.

Come wimbledon final, djokovic will have no pressure on him ( if it is a djokovic-nadal final, novak would have secured no.1). He will be swinging freely and believe me, nadal does not want to face upto a pressure-free djokovic because the last time they did so, djokovic put a nice 7 drubbings in a row.

The world is a much better place right now for djokovic fans. Watch him recapture the 2011 magic again. and you can be sure he will win this title while charming people unlike the boring naDULL!


Ray Says:

@ humble rafa:

if you take such people, you would no longer be humble! you would be SMUG RAFA!


Ray Says:

I dont know if you do this intentionally Sean, but picking is not the right verb to use when you are talking about rafa.

If you really want to be nice to him, i suggest think, choose and other synonymous words. keep that in mind in the future!


Nadline Says:

Dave:

Think about this possibility. nieminen takes out lopez (up 2 sets to one 1 and a break in the 4th) and hewitt takes out tsonga (cannot put it past hewitt). what would be the average rank for nadal? i am sure it will go up above 40.

With federer’s luck, i am sure all the seeds in his quarter will hold form but those in djokovic/nadal quarter will keep jumping the ship like berdych yesterday!


Mark Says:

Vamos Rafaaaa!! Go get ‘em Champ!!!


Tennis Fan Says:

@ Mark,

Wow you supported a cheater, what do you like about Nadal? Do you like his cheating? Nadal is a doper, cheaters and lies. I am surprised that some people like ugly boring tennis which is not nice to watch.


metan Says:

Come on nadal, break back!


trufan Says:

Excellent post Dave!

Nadal has really benefited from cheap draws many times, much like Sampras.

And yes, Nadal can’t beat a fit and fresh Federer on grass. Unless Federer has multiple 5-setters on the way to the final, if he gets there, he will win it, regardless of who is in front of him.

My main concern is Djokovic draining the hell out of him in the semi, while Nadal coasts against some choker like Murray or some lower ranked player who can barely keep up with him in the first set.

Ramos is a lefty – and pretty decently ranked, in addition to not being a rookie player. Fed feeding him 3 breadsticks is a statement. I can’t recall the last time fed did that to a player in a slam (losing only 3 games), and that too in the first round.

And now with the roof – would be perfect if it rains!


trufan Says:

I wouldn’t say Nadal is a cheater – but he certainly twists and stretches (and breaks) the rules as far as possible, and is guilty of unsportmanlike gamesmanship all the time.

Those are the facts. Nadalturds may not like to face the truth, but those are the facts.


metan Says:

Play aggressive nadal, needs to keep going,,,,


JF Says:

Anyone watching Nadal-Belucci game now? whats going on with rafa!


Queen Says:

Sienna Says:
Probably most are youngsters and housewives who are attrackted to the looks of Nadal.

You forgot to add that Fed funs are mainly retirement communities and geriatrics. I apologize to the younger Fed supporters however I could not help myself when reading this garbage.


metan Says:

Omg, I need bloody mary, come on rafa it’s 0 4!!!
Please break it,,,,,


the mind reels Says:

A couple of loose groundstrokes from Nadal, but Bellucci is also playing well.

Not surprising that someone whose aggressive tactics are working is having success against him…

Nadal holds for 2-4. I feel like he’ll take this set 7-5.


the mind reels Says:

Also, Nadal is really struggling with his return of serve. He’s missing easy forehand chips.


metan Says:

Come on nadal, reduces the deficit,,,,,


jane Says:

One thing about Nadal, and even Nole in recent months, is that he can be down, but he’s not out. I’ve seen Rafa start slow plenty of times and then come right back into the match, like I’ve seen Nole down in a set and somehow turn is around. I think part of that is mental strength, but also the ability to return well and break serve with consistency.


metan Says:

Good, 5 5,,,, come on champ!!!!


the mind reels Says:

@jane: Nadal certainly does that better than most. I think the other part is that his opponents have a let down after charging out to a 3-0 or 4-0 lead. That plus Nadal settling usually means a reversion to parity in the score. Assuming the score does get back to level, the will of the opposition has been shot, and they crumble at the end of the set.

A nice hold by Bellucci to go up 6-5. We may have a breaker on our hands here.


skeezer Says:

Queen,

I have repeatedly been assumed a 12 yr old, so as a Fed fan I resent that post :)

Bellucci hasn’t the experience and the mental fortitude to capitalize on Rafa’s rustiness on the tundra, so look for him to (Rafa) to roll the remaining sets….


jane Says:

True TMR, it always takes two for the result. Tiebreak it is then.


the mind reels Says:

Bellucci doesn’t look like a fighter out there. I haven’t watched a *ton* of Bellucci matches, but does he always look sort of lackluster out there?

He just dumped an overhead in the tiebreaker, which would have put them back on serve.


jane Says:

If your Bellucci’s coach is this encouraging or discouraging??


Tennis Fan Says:

Where is Jamie? He supposed to let us know what the psychic friend says who is going to win Wimbledon


the mind reels Says:

I think this is discouraging, mostly because I think Bellucci actually should have won that set. Nadal didn’t play particularly well, and Bellucci made some bad errors serving at 4-0 and 4-2. But, to Nadal’s credit, he made Bellucci play, and TB couldn’t come up with it.

I see a steamroll coming for the last two sets.


metan Says:

Tie break, come on rafa, ,,


Tennis Fan Says:

@Metan

What do you see in Nadal? He is a cheater.


metan Says:

Now I can relax, thank you rafa . Go to next setl
@ tennis fan,

Rafa is tennis god,,,,hehehe, never die attitude


jane Says:

I think I agree TMR. Bellucci’s coach can see he has the goods. But he isn’t capitalizing on them. And it’s not all down to Rafa. I guess this is a big situation for Bellucci, so a bit of nerves would be part of it, but he is 24, so he’s been around a while (he’s played Rafa at Roland Garros twice, so at a slam on a big stage); thus this occasion shouldn’t be cause for him to lose a double break lead. It’s a combination of both again. On one hand, it’s discouraging because he blew a good lead; on the other hand, he is playing against Rafa, an 11 slam holder and 2 time champion here, so I guess with perspective, the fact that Bellucci could get that far ahead is encouraging. Maybe it’s one step forward, two steps back sort of thing?


Tennis Fan Says:

Rafa isn’t a tennis god, he lies about everything. Stop making him a wonderful tennis god. How can a man like him run after every ball. Nadal is a cheater and you can’t see it. Oh you think moon balling tennis is interesting, that is boring.


jane Says:

Tsonga’s through in straights; no upsets there. Hewitt hasn’t beaten Tsonga yet – that makes it 3-0.


metan Says:

Come on rafa, break it, I need to sleep, midnight in hong kong, I go to work tomorrow morning,,,,,,


jane Says:

Serena’s dress is meh.


Nirmal Kumar Says:

I think people underestimate Nadal on Grass. He does not play a typical grass court game, but he is very very efficient in getting thru the matches.

He simply picked up his game and did not make any unforced errors once he was down 0-4.


Queen Says:

Tennis Fan Says:
Rafa isn’t a tennis god, he lies about everything.

Ok tell all what Nadal is lying about. Whatever the f@k I am not gonna read it anyway.


Tennis Fan Says:

@ Queen

He lies about his injuries,eg about his knee how can you recover from a Knee injury in two weeks. I know alot of players suffer horrible knee injuries. So what treatment is Nadal having to miraculous cure his knee injury so that he can run and run.


Queen Says:

Tennis Fan Says:
Where is Jamie? He supposed to let us know what the psychic friend says who is going to win Wimbledon

What do you want to know? I will tell you. Fed is not going to win Wimbledon this year.


Tennis Fan Says:

@Queen who says so? Are you psychic?

Federer is going to win Wimbledon.


metan Says:

4 2,,,,rafa races trough,,,,,,,,

@ tennis fan, I don’t care whatever you said coz you’ve never met rafa personally, he is not like what you all said.


Tennis Fan Says:

@Queen you love supporting Cheaters. You are sad person. Why don’t go to Nadal and take him to bed. That what you are dreaming off. It is sad you can’t see the real good tennis, you love moon balling bashing tennis with no style. Oh yes the ATP is bowing to your moaning Nadal, you love whinner Nadal.


Queen Says:

Tennis Fan Says:
@ Queen

He lies about his injuries,eg about his knee how can you recover from a Knee injury in two weeks. I know alot of players suffer horrible knee injuries. So what treatment is Nadal having to miraculous cure his knee injury so that he can run and run.

HAHAHA you are so amusing. And you know that he is lying about his injuries because u r a psychic?
so what do you need Jaime for? I will tell you what Nadal has…a BIG engine in his b@t that makes him run and run LOL


Tennis Fan Says:

@Metan

I am laughing hahah I have met Nadal and it isn’t nice as you make him to be.


Queen Says:

Tennis Fan Says:
@Queen who says so? Are you psychic?

Federer is going to win Wimbledon.

I am and you know what the stars say? You need mental evaluation…


azrael Says:

decent serving…good slices and great volleying…those who say rafa does not have a complete games are fools

Vamos


Tennis Fan Says:

I haven’t got time for silly girls who so blind to see the truth.


Dave Says:

Tomaz Bellucci’s problems this year seemed to start when he withdrew from Barcelona, with an abdominal strain. Aince then, the only main draw ATP matches Bellucci won were 2 matches in Nice.He lost in the first round of Madrid, Rome and French Open. Did not play any tourney after that, not even a warm up grass tourney (he played Queens last year). So he was possibly trying to recover from his injury. As one British newspaper put it during the first set of Nadal-Bellucci: “Imagine turning up for a beach soccer tournament without any prior training and romping it. That’s what Sao Paulo’s Thomaz Bellucci is doing to two-time champion Rafael Nadal.” Nadal should have put away this match quicker against a rusty player.

TampaFl: “How about a realistic assessment about who wins Wimbledon.”
I gave you as realistic an assessment as John McEnroe, Darren Cahill, and other experts said. I can’t lie.

Trufan: “My main concern is Djokovic draining the hell out of him in the semi, while Nadal coasts against some choker”
Mine as well. For sure Nadal has benefited from having Federer and Djokovic in the other half in all but three slams since 2008 Australian Open. I would actually prefer to have Federer in Nadal’s side of the draw, so he gets to play Rafa when he is fresh.

Nadline: Think about this possibility. nieminen takes out lopez… and hewitt takes out tsonga (cannot put it past hewitt)”
I guarantee you, on my family’s honor, that Tsonga ‘s finger will beat Hewitt’s toe. As for Nieminen, all that practice with Federer in recent days has helped.


Queen Says:

Tennis Fan Says:
@Metan

I am laughing hahah I have met Nadal and it isn’t nice as you make him to be.

He did not sign your balls and you despise him. Good reason.


metan Says:

Great 6 2 for second set,,,,,,, hurry up nadal!


Tennis Fan Says:

@Queen,

You are the one who need to have a check up because you are so blind and can’t see the truth. I don’t need mental evaluation, I know the truth.

I didn’t ask for any autographs from Nadal because I wasn’t near him. Get your fact straight.

Silly fan girls.


metan Says:

Nadal is running away with this match,, very good!


Wog boy Says:

Rafa is winning this one there is no question about that, but I am not impressed with what I saw, Belluci is just missing easy shots. I don’t know if it is only me but his face looks little bit swollen like after big night out, not that his was out.


the mind reels Says:

Bellucci breaks back and consolidates. We’re at 2-all in the third, and while I’d have thought Nadal would have run away with it, Bellucci is hanging in there.

Nadal continues to shank balls off his forehand side.


Wog boy Says:

I meant, Rafa’s face.


metan Says:

Go nadal , fire back,,,,, I am very sleepy


the mind reels Says:

Wow — Nadal goes right at Bellucci on the passing shot and misses. Couple gifts from him in this game.


Queen Says:

Tennis Fan Says:
@Queen,

You are the one who need to have a check up because you are so blind and can’t see the truth. I don’t need mental evaluation, I know the truth.

I didn’t ask for any autographs from Nadal because I wasn’t near him. Get your fact straight.

Silly fan girls.

I sincerily apologize to everybody who read this exchenge between myself and the Fed Fun. It is getting little ridiculous.

LOL you would be surprised to see am not a silly little girl. Anyhow, go do some chores cuz I am done LOL
Till the next fight


metan Says:

Nadal breaks, 4 2,,,


Seventeen Says:

Nadal is playing mediocre tennis. not at all elite tennis.
Just good enough for the win. See the difference woth his Garros matches! I like to see him up against Tsonga.


metan Says:

Sealing victory 6 3, good night n good morning, I am going to have a sweet dream!


the mind reels Says:

Nadal is through in straights, though a pretty unremarkable performance today from the guy. Bellucci had opportunities to extend this a bit today, even take a set, but he never really seemed in it. Too many unforced errors, and Nadal was a bit too steady when he needed to be.


Brando Says:

Rafa won- nothing special about the performance. As expected really. Typical start to wimby really for rafa- nothing special at the start, and then slowly starts to improve.


Brando Says:

Murray should beat davvy in straights here. Grass, even at his peak, was a bad surface for him.


Mark Says:

WELL DONE CHAMP RAFAAA!!! VAMOS!!


Dave Says:

And yet Darren Cahill pretends it is a “convincing result from Nadal”, even though Rafa’s match against a rusty clay-court oriented No. 80 player took about one hour longer than Federer needed against Ramos, who is No. 29 in the year-to-date rankings. Can we ever trust anything these well-paid commentators say?

In any case, just one match. Too early to jump to conclusions. By the weekend, we’ll have a better idea of how Nadal, Fed and Djokovic are playing.


Dave Says:

If I play anymore bracket thingies I’ll have to coach my picks how to win 5 setters.


jane Says:

My stupid TV is showing Azarenka instead of Murray/Davy. Jeepers. I see Murray’s up a break; he may want vengeance for Davy’s cheeky comments to the press. Go Andy!


Humble Rafa Says:

And yet Darren Cahill pretends it is a “convincing result from Nadal”, even though Rafa’s match against a rusty clay-court oriented No. 80 player took about one hour longer than Federer needed against Ramos, who is No. 29 in the year-to-date rankings. Can we ever trust anything these well-paid commentators say?

No, you can’t. Why waste your time listening to experts when you know who the GOAT is. Everything else is noise. Go to bed, knowing you are happy to live at the same time as the GOAT.


the mind reels Says:

@Dave: Cahill has had a Nadal lean to his commentary for some years now. Unless he saw something I didn’t in watching that match, I’d just dismiss his remark. Perhaps all he saw was the stats sheet, which even then isn’t particularly glowing.


jane Says:

When I was filling out my brackets, I actually wondered if Hasse might trouble Delpo. I remember that Rafa had a really tough match versus Hasse here in 2010. Hasse is up a break in the third.


jane Says:

Cahill picked Fed to win the tournament, if I am not mistaken.


mat4 Says:

It is interesting to see how Rafa fares against a good lefty.

Anyway, just hope he doesn’t rise his level. If Cahill asserts Rafa plays well, let it stay that way.


mat4 Says:

Anyway, my second day in the bracket challenge wasn’t better than the first one. But hopefully my semi picks will help improve my final result.


Nirmal Kumar Says:

I really liked what I saw from Rafa today. He played at 1st gear and still got through in straight sets, which is pretty scary. And on top of it, he just won FO on clay.

Tommy Haas and Kohls match looks interesting per scoreline. Both are locked 6-6 in the 5th set.


jane Says:

Nice set from Andy M!


jane Says:

Dimitrov is through – beat Anderson again, just like at Queens. I wonder how far he can go this year?


Nirmal Kumar Says:

My bad, T Haas and Kohls are starting the 5th set. Not 6-6 in the 5th.


jane Says:

God ESPN coverage is making me mad: first the are showing Azarenka because she’s playing an American, but no Murray, Delpo etc. Now they are interviewing Serena and showing re-runs from her match. HELLO??? Can we have LIVE tennis please!?


Kimberly Says:

nadal frequently starts slow in GS other than FO and is extrmeley unimpressive until he is impressive. In 2010 he had abysmall matches v. Petzchner and Haase, and though Berdy choked in the final he played a sublime match against Murray in the semi.


Krishna Says:

@jamie: Who does your psychic predict to win Wimbledon?


azrael Says:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94xyOpETYYs&feature=related

old rafa-fed vid…i crack up everytime i see it…these two have so much class…respect for each other…too bad their fans don’t


jane Says:

Andy Murray is playing VERY well.


jane Says:

Looks like Khols is going to take out Hass.


jane Says:

Andy Murray’s forehand has been formidable. But he’s used the slice well, he’s served and returned well. Seriously, is no one else watching Andy? I know grass isn’t Davy’s best surface, but Andy is playing sublimely!


the DA Says:

You’re not alone jane. Sublime is the word.


Seventeen Says:

It is gonna be a FEDDAY final.

surely the two inform players and totally in tje zone.


Brando Says:

VAMOS DELPO!

FH DTL to seal the TB- crucial that one!

meanwhile, davvy really out of his depth here- andy was always going to have too much for him!


the mind reels Says:

Two sets and a break in, Murray has yet to hit an unforced error. Unreal.


jane Says:

Glad to know “the DA.” Can I be the judge? ;)


jane Says:

If Andy continues to play like this, he can win the tournament.


Brando Says:

‘If Andy continues to play like this, he can win the tournament.’

mmm……He’s controlling the match very, very well- i’ll have to hand him that. Still would like to see more pop in his shots- especially the FH….

Like davvy in that FH at the net- some sting in andy’s shots would be good to see.


Brando Says:

we could have murray v dimitrov in round 3, that would be good!


jane Says:

Did you see the sting on that one Brando? He has hit some great forehands this match; I think Lendl has been working it. :)


Brando Says:

kohls has beaten haas.


jane Says:

Pospisl got a set from Querrey – exciting for the young Canadian. I’ve always liked his game.


Brando Says:

yep jane- that was very good. Jmac saying on commentary that it seems murray is ‘finally listening’ to someone- lendl- and hit the FH from inside the court!

it could make the world of difference for andy if he does that more often.


Brando Says:

Love the way johnny mac says it like it is:

‘ sometimes people used to say i was full of it when i complained’.

LOL- johnny mac doesn’t BS for no one!

Love the guy :-)


alison Says:

Off topic id like to say,congrats to our Brit guys and gals Elena Baltacha,Heather Watson,and James Ward on that fabulous win over Andjuar,making it through the 1st round,sad for Laura Robson who should feel very proud of herself for pushing Sciavoni and giving her such a scare,and Ollie Golding yesterday who played brilliantly despite loosing.


jane Says:

True alison, and so far Baker has done well to hang with Roddick in set one.


alison Says:

Thanks Jane Muzza looks brilliant everythings clicking,and hopefully Baker will catch A.Rod having an off day.


jane Says:

The serve, the slice, the forehand and the return into the body all worked very well for Muzza today!! He even threw in some magician-like shots. Moving on. :)


racquet Says:

That was fantastic. A pleasure to watch. C’mon Andy!


jane Says:

racquet so glad you saw it; hadn’t heard from you in a while round here. Anyhow, what a masterly performance from Andy today. I think that’s the best i’ve seen from him since the AO.


jane Says:

Delpo broken serving for the match. :/


racquet Says:

jane, I agree. Especially liked the FH today.


jane Says:

But breaks right back – so he’s got another shot here.


the mind reels Says:

Wawrinka finds himself in more 5-set battles than any other player I can think of.


racquet Says:

More than Isner?


mat4 Says:

jane,

In the living room my family (my boy especially) is watching tennis whole day already, and I have to seat in the kitchen and write… terrible. Watched the first part of Rafa’s first set, though, then missed Murray and Tomic. Just a few glimpses.

I told my son about the tourneytopia and he checks the results every ten minutes, and now he’s disappointed I am doing that bad…

Haas lost, so my hopes have sunk. So unfortunate. Dodig lost too. Belucci… My son, who is such a clever boy because he is a Nole fan, whined for the the most part of the match. He regained some hope at 2-1 in the third, but it didn’t last.


jane Says:

At least your son is interested mat4. Mine just rolls his eyes at my tennis obsessions. The brackets can shift later one, depending on semifinalists and finalists. The first couple of rounds are difficult to predict.


jane Says:

later on*


the mind reels Says:

@racquet: yes, more even than Isner, I think. Isner’s tend to be more “epic” since they go on forever, but Wawrinka simply plays more of them, it seems.


alison Says:

yay Britains Anne Keothavong came through in straight sets,so proud of our Brits.


Matt Says:

Wimbledon has a roof for a court. And they are actually deciding whether to use it or not. Not just, oh, it’s raining, let’s use it. Way to go…


mat4 Says:

I wasn’t very serious. I really should use more smilies ;-)

My son likes tennis very much. When it was time for him to chose a sport, he wanted to play tennis. I was for karate…


alison Says:

Matt yeah often wondered that myself,if its raining use the roof,i agree hardly rocket science is it? why build the thing if you aint gonna use it?


Matt Says:

alison, i agree, and for the people who paid tickets it must be frustrating


dari Says:

I couldn’t watch matches today, but by all accounts my whacky pick Murray is doing well? GLAD TO HEAR IT Go Andy!


alison Says:

Matt yeah i completely agree,and it defeats the object some what.


alison Says:

Elena Baltacha in her interview said said she had been given entry into the olympics,so congrats to her on such a fantastic day.


Margot Says:

Bit of a super duper performance from Andy…..*happy sigh.*
Yes, jane ITT has been working on forehand but also practising and practising sliced back hand, both of which were rather good today. Guess he’s expecting Andy to meet some sky high servers on the way.
alison gr8 news about the other Brits, must be something of a record and good to see Judy at Elena’s match and not Andy’s.
Love Heather Watson, such a superb athlete, such a gutsy player.


Margot Says:

re roof: it takes 20 minutes to get the thing up and running anyway by which time our English showery rain could well have stopped, which it did today in fact. Also, Wimbledon IS an out door tournament after all.


Kimberly Says:

Mat4–have your son join next time. My two sons, a seven year old and a five year old are on. Sweetpatrick and ColinO7. My older son has to be held back from talking more crap then any of us T-xers could imagine. If I didn’t everyone’s bracket would have a “haha your draw stinks” on it. But he cries when his picks fail.

Took Isner’s loss to Falla surprisingly well. Cried horribly during Australia when Falla took out Fishie. Then he got smarter–decided “americans stink on red clay in France” and didn’t overinflate their chances and actually put in a 7th place showing. But then I heard him as he was picking saying “americans are good on grass” so while not being totally stupid like AUtralia and US Open and picking fish or roddick to win the tournament, he took them too far but can recover if his later round picks pan out.


alison Says:

Margot yeah i see what you mean,i just meant as a precaucionary measure,worst case senario,hopefully we wont need it too much anyway,weathers been quite good so far fingers crossed.


oui Says:

Krishna Says:
@jamie: Who does your psychic predict to win Wimbledon?

Krishna, it depends what month it is. The psychic vibrations change monthly.

jamie Says:
FO: Nadal
Halle: Federer
Queens: Murray
Wimbledon: Nadal
Olympics: Federer
Toronto: Nole
Cincinnati: Murray
USO: Federer
Shanghai: Murray
Paris: Not a top 4
WTF: Nole

May 23rd, 2012 at 12:59 pm

jamie Says:
Predictions for 2012:

AO: Djokovic(duh)

FO: Nadal

Wimbledon: Murray

Olympics: Federer

USO: Djokovic

WTF: Djokovic

February 27th, 2012 at 9:15 am


Sienna Says:

Murray probably played the best tennis of his life today. For a set and a half he was trotlly inthe zone. That is the level required to beat Fed this tourney.

Without any major other nife back stabbing incidents that is probably the final.

Federer-Murray.I really dont see Nadal travelling really far this tounrey. He probably end AGAINST tSONGA.


mat4 Says:

Kimberly:

But he would be right: haha, my bracket stinks. I wouldn’t mind, as I feel we shouldn’t be too serious here. Life is too tragic anyway, especially during the FO.

Thinking of it: of all of my favs, only Mats Wilander won that tournament; Connors, Becker, Sampras, Djokovic… yeah, this tournament can be very tormenting.


The Great Davy Says:

Well, what do we know this morning the Russian brothership told me Murray was going to do his best impression of me, The Great Davy.

I to be honest got worry and fly home, leaving my stunt double to take the damage. What do we know, Murray can do a great impression of Your Great Davy. It was a section of torture for my double!


jatt Says:

Hello Jamie, We are waiting for your predictions…


Michael Says:

Seeing Nadal against Bellucci yesterday didn’t give the impression that he is going to win Wimbledon this time around. He was making far too many unforced errors pretty much unlike the Nadal we know. But he has scope for improvement. Still anything is possible. But I would fancy the chances of players who have not won anything so far – players like Murray, Tsonga, Del Potro etc. etc. Tennis would become more interesting if we have a new Champion this time around.


Dave Says:

the mind reels: yeah, you’re right. A better comment might have been “stunned Nadal survives early scare to solve rusty clay-courter”.


Margot Says:

“The Great Davy” will you now changing your name to “The Great Karly?”


Michael Says:

Yesterday watching Roger against Fognini was a Tennis enthusiast delight with the way the former was timing and placing his shots, mixing it rather well with elegance and flamboyance. In a nut shell it was top quality Tennis. It is definitely a riddle. Even at this age, Roger handles the “B” and “C” Class players well than Nadal or Novak who time and again struggle against such players. But when Roger is ranged against Novak or Nadal, he struggles to find his ‘A” game and he gets infected the “UE (unforced errors” virus. Either, Roger is playing bad or they are not allowing him to play his game, it is really a big puzzle for which there are no easy answers.


scineram Says:

Stick to that selection, Sean!


S Green Says:

Suddenly Murray’s chances to win his first Slam goes up, by at least 25%.


Peka Says:

Sean, still picking Nadal or might want to change a bit…?


No-1-Vak Says:

This article is soooooooooo wrong…hehe (long live Mr Rasol :)


Miroslav Says:

I think Nadal still have chance of winning Wim2012 :D :D :D :D :D and please do not fool yourself,Federer will lose against Djokovic in straight sets just like he lost 15days ago in RG or everybody forget that,in that presumable Wimbledon 2012 SF there is no grass factor in equasion because till that time grass on Wimbledon turns into dirt and surface is 50% slower.and looking at the way Novak plays this year and seeing that Roger level of play is way down from his best years i can not see how could Roger beat Novak,with what element in his play?He is reluctant to risk,he is slower than Novak,his serve is worser that Novak,his stamina either,he makes huge amounts of unforced errors and his concentration dwindles a lot during a match…so lets be serious,we all know who is winning 2012 Wimbledon…


Peter Says:

It seems a lot of analists have written Fedex off.
What was interesting in this years Wimbledon is that Djokovic as well as Nadal could not make a fist. Federer kept is cool, even when being behind one set (even two). This puts a whole new perspective on the Olympics and the US open.
Keep an eye on Murray who will surprise the likes of the Joker in this form.

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