Poll: Who’s Most Likely To Finish In Top 2: Murray, Nadal Or Federer?
by Staff | April 2nd, 2013, 6:10 pm
  • 29 Comments

Novak Djokovic is still No. 1 in both the 52 week rankings and current 2013 race, though the Serb’s edge over Andy Murray in the latter is just 360 points. But the big ranking story after Miami was Murray is now ahead of both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal and that both Federer and Nadal are missing from the Top 2 for the first time since the week of November 10, 2003!

But is the transition complete? Are the days of Federer-Nadal being in the Top 2 over?

Unless Djokovic loses his way, there will be only room for one more in the Top 2. Federer hasn’t won a title since last August and at 31 his best days are behind him. Nadal is still fighting knee concerns while Murray hasn’t shown much in the way of dominance since his big 2012 summer run.

Current ATP Race standings as of April 1:
1 Djokovic, Novak (SRB), 2,990
2 Murray, Andy (GBR), 2,630
3 Ferrer, David (ESP), 2,370
4 Nadal, Rafael (ESP), 1,900
5 Berdych, Tomas (CZE), 1,550
6 Del Potro, Juan Martin (ARG), 1,425
7 Gasquet, Richard (FRA), 1,215
8 Federer, Roger (SUI), 1,170


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29 Comments for Poll: Who’s Most Likely To Finish In Top 2: Murray, Nadal Or Federer?

jane Says:

The easy answer is Rafa because after Wimbledon he has nothing to defend – so he can only gain. Andy has to defend Wimbledon finals (Fed the title) and the US Open title. Nole has to defend Canada and Shanghai as well as WTF. Rafa’s knee issues have turned into a win-win in some ways. But Fed can always play well on fast hard courts and grass; wouldn’t rule him out, and Nole and Murray tend to thrive at the USO and during the orient express. Hard to say what’ll happen.


Alok Says:

Most logical choice would be Murray, but that would depend on several scenarios playing out to make it so.

Going by past years’ performance, Rafa has not played much after USO, and he could do the same this year. Fed has Wimby, RU Basel and WTF, and going by his performance so far this year, it’s possible he could fall to No.5, if he fails to defend his points post FO. Murray has RU Wimby Shanghai and winner USO, but he is doing much better than Fed thus far, which makes him,IMO, the logical choice for the No.2 year ending spot.


Jon Says:

I’m gonna go with Rafa… I think if he can continue his momentum through to the clay he’ll be in a great position to finish in the top 2.


Sean Randall Says:

I can’t see Federer getting back up there.

I’m not sold on Nadal’s knees holding up the second half of the season.

So that leaves Murray who’s been pretty fit and he’ll be in form in October/November picking up points while Rafa might again be dealing with that damn knee.

If Rafa can stay healthy it’s his, in fact he could even finish No. 1. But his health is a very big “if”.


alison Says:

Lots of possibilities,but i agree with Jane,due to Rafas early exit from the tour last year he can only gain points,and he lost early at Wimbledon too,Andy can gain points at Madrid as he didnt play there last year i dont think.


Margot Says:

@Alison
Andy might gain lots of points during the clay, but it’s a big “if” IMHO


Michael Says:

Looking Roger at the rock bottom on the race to World Tour Finals, it is evident that age has finally caught up with him. Seeing the awful form he is in at the moment, I have my doubts as to whether he will make it to the World Tour Finals ? As regards Rafa, I think he has everything to gain after the Clay season and he might become No.1 by end of year if Novak’s game withers away as is the case now. Murray might not remain No.2 for long and I expect Rafa to capture it soon after the clay season. Remember he was beaten in the second round at Wimbledon and so there are loads of points to be gained there just by reaching the semi finals or finals and he also didn’t play the US Open. It will be quite a tough ask for Novak to hold on to his No.1 tag by the end of the year considering that he too is under tremendous pressure. Ofcourse Novak can hold on to his No.1 ranking if he can produce a glimpse of that form he showed in 2011 and even 2012. I hope he does as otherwise it will be all easy for Nadal to once again occupy the pinnacle of this sport.


Steve 27 Says:

The man who can win two majors, three Master 1000 and a consistent season will be the number 1 without discussion.

Novak, Andy or Rafa? Will be a exciting triangle!


T N JHA Says:

Donot feel comfortable by doubting Federer. Federer coming after the planned leave will start playing amazing Tennis once again. So I feel Roger will be the no1 once again.


RZ Says:

Michael, keep in mind that Roger was done in by a back injury at Indian Wells. He played really well in his first 2 matches there (even when he tweaked his back in the 2nd one), and managed to beat Wawrinka with that bad back. If that injury hadn’t happened, who knows if Rafa would have won their quarterfinal encounter?

However, having said that, based on his limited schedule it’s unlikely that Roger will be at #2. Rafa only has points to gain after the French Open, and Murray is working on staying power, so chances are that Fed will be #4, though he could drop further down after Wimbledon.


rogerafa Says:

Roger’s schedule suggests that he realizes the limitations he has to deal with as he approaches the end of his career. The number one rank is unrealistic when his three main rivals are six years younger and in the prime of their careers. Roger is probably expecting to sneak in one more major if he gets very lucky with the draw or his rivals get upset. He really has nothing left to achieve now.

Barring a prolonged slump in form, Novak easily remains the favorite to end the year as number one. Both Rafa and Andy can reach there but they have never been very consistent across all surfaces. If I had to choose between the two, I would pick Rafa simply because he has done it twice before and his form has been very encouraging so far.


Preeti Says:

The year end ranking depends only on points accumulated this year. Last year’s points do not count.
Defense of points will impact the rolling ranking, only the points gained this year will impact year-end ranking.
So Rafa not having played for half the year last year will have no bearing on his year-end ranking.
He can break into top 2 only toward the end of the year unless something disastrous happens to the other three.


Daniel Says:

Every year after Clay season Nadal is # 1 in race points by a big cush even 2009 when he lost 4th round in RG. His inability to perform after Wimby that cost him more YE#1.

So if Djoko and Murray, who are ahead now, are able to finish first or keep close to Nadal, they can turn the tables and finish on top.

Only year Nadal deliver was 2010, where he won US Open, Tokyo and finals in WTF. I think this was the only year he won more than 3500 points after Wimbledon, since 2005 when he first ascend to #2. This year he will be 27 and very unlikely that he can produce a 2010 year. Who knows, time will tell, he always get momentum after an RG win.


Michael Says:

RZ, The problem for Roger is he has too much points to defend due to his splendid performance last year where he won Madrid, Wimbledon, Rotterdam, Cincinnati, Dubai etc. I agree that Roger was suffering from a bad back at Indian Wells and that spoiled the show. However, I reserve my comments on whether he would have been able to beat Rafa if not for that handicap. Well, it would have been a competitive match with a fully fit Roger taking on Rafa and I do not want to predict the winner in that case. Nonetheless, the best days are behind for Roger and it is too much to expect from him to stay on the top three endlessly. Time doesn’t wait even for a legend like Roger. We have to accept that fact and move on. Roger will ofcourse continue to delight us with his flamboyant Tennis, but we cannot expect consistency any more from him. There will be flashes of brilliance that will be on display here and there. I still see him as a favourite for Wimbledon where ofcourse with a favourable draw, he can do wonders and who knows lift his 8th trophy. That will be a real miracle if he manages to do that. So, why not believe in miracle waiting to happen ?


grisham Says:

I hope it will be Rafa!!


Adam Says:

IMHO I’d say thw favourite for no. 2 spot at end of year is Novak. I’m very excited for the coming year and what Andy cano. I fancy him to win a clay court masters title and lose the French final to Rafa.


alison Says:

Adam Rafas my favrite player,and Andys my second favorite i would love for them to meet each other in a GS final,and as much as i love what Rafas done on clay,and although im not complaining i would love to see him bag some more GS somewhere else other than clay too,the GS i would love Andy to win would be Wimbledon been a Brit,but actually the irony is hes under less pressure at the FO,however if both bag GS this year on any surface that would be fantastic for me as a fan of both.


alison Says:

^Favorite not Favrite DOH^.


Adam Says:

I’d like Murray to win Roland Garros and Rafa to win Wimby. Don’t think its going to be that way around though. Think it will all make interesting watching. Novak makes me sick. He preens and ponses around like a Peacock – “Hey everybody look at me. Aren’t I brilliant” – Puke


alison Says:

Adam id settle for that too,i agree that Novak can be a bit OTT with his celebrations sometimes,but then again cant they all,your entitled to your opinion but i just think your been a bit harsh on Novak though,sorry just my opinion.


jane Says:

Adam, Novak is awesome. Too bad you can’t see it, but to each his/her own.

alison, I agree: it would be great to see Andy win at Wimbledon; I love watching his game the best on grass.


Adam Says:

Probably a fault on my part. Novak is a very good player – of this there is no doubt. One of the best ever. I’mv a bit disappointed in Andy as he’s also a great player. But he’s taken longer to mature into his game. There the same age but I’d say Andy is at least 3 years behind Novak. I think I discoverede the reason the other day. All though they were both botn in May 1987. Novak turned pro in 2003. Andy only turned pro in 2005


sheila Says:

i’m not a djokovic fan, but i think he is pretty gracious, especially when he loses(as rare as that is) to another player he always gives a warm congratulations to his opponent. the only think i dont like is when he rips off his shirt & has to prance around. to me thats unnecessary. i know it would be a mindblower, but i hope federer can win another major.


alison Says:

Not everybody does like Novak,but its not as if everyone likes Rafa,Roger,Andy either,they all have to stomach their fair share of negativity on this forum,we dont live in some ideal sort of world where everything is nice and fluffy,and everybody likes everybody,nothing wrong with it as long as it doesnt become too personal ie race,religion,sexuality,gender etc,those sort on topics should have no placing on a sports forum.


alison Says:

The only players i can think of that i really dislike would be Berdych,whom i actually used to like,i loved how happy he looked when he beat Roger at Wimby in 2010,then i heard he had been bitching about Roger which put me off him,then the Almagro incident,the other would be Gulbis,the way he talks about women,and he seems to think hes doing the world a favour by choosing to play tennis,i dont care how talented he is or how good looking he is blah blah blah,his attitude is terrible sorry.


Thomas Says:

I HATE Djokovic’s bellicose post match victory celebrations. They are so “in your face” and disrespectful to the worthy opponent. I also dislike the way he postures around the court(ie he carries around an heir of superiority over his opponent). However, he is very gracious in defeat, and his game is a pleasure to watch when its on.


alison Says:

The only players that i really dislike would be Berdych,whom i actually used to like,although i like Roger,i loved how happy he looked when he beat Roger at Wimby in 2010,then i heard him take a pop a Roger and the back injury and that put me off him,then the Almagro incident,the other would be Gulbis and the way he talks about women,and he seems to think hes doing the world a favour because he chose to play tennis,i dont really care how talented he is or how good looking he is blah blah blah,his attitude is terrible sorry.


alison Says:

Im surprised at my comment at 6.05am been put in moderation with some of the comments that get through sometimes on this forum,geez has the world gone mad.


Viper Says:

Roger was playing the best of them all prior to his back. The announcers all said that. He has hard lick bit still deserves the best

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Rankings
ATP - Aug 25 WTA - Aug 25
1 Novak Djokovic1 Serena Williams
2 Rafael Nadal2 Simona Halep
3 Roger Federer3 Na Li
4 Stan Wawrinka4 Petra Kvitova
5 David Ferrer5 Agnieszka Radwanska
6 Milos Raonic6 Maria Sharapova
7 Tomas Berdych7 Angelique Kerber
8 Grigor Dimitrov8 Eugenie Bouchard
9 Andy Murray9 Ana Ivanovic
10 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga10 Jelena Jankovic
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