Here’s What Novak Djokovic Has To Do To Finish 2013 No. 1
by Staff | November 3rd, 2013, 12:53 pm
  • 82 Comments

Novak Djokovic kept his faint hopes alive for a year-end No. 1 finish by winning the Paris Indoors earlier today over David Ferrer.

The Serb, who lost his top ranking last month to Rafael Nadal, can return to No. 1 but he’ll have to at least win the ATP Finals which begin tomorrow in London to have a chance, and maybe more.

Entering London Djokovic stands 1,420 points behind Rafa, a sum that he will earn by winning the Finals as an undefeated champion (1,500).

However, each round robin win in London is worth 200, so if Rafa gets one victory Novak will need to make up 1,620 points (1,420 deficit + Nadal 1 round robin win worth 200) and if Rafa wins two, that’s 1,820 points (1,420 + 200 + 200).

Fortunately for Djokovic, he still has the Davis Cup final against the Czechs later this month. Each LIVE singles win in the finals is worth 75 points for a maximum of 150. Plus, if Djokovic does win TWO LIVE rubbers and his team wins, he’ll earn an extra 75 pt bonus for having won the title with seven live wins during the season. Make sense?

The numbers entering London:
Nadal has 12,030 points.
Djokovic has 10,610 points.
Djokovic needs 1,421 to pass Nadal.
Including Davis Cup, Djokovic can max out this year with 12,335 points (1500 ATP + 75 DC win + 75 DC win + 75 bonus)

The scenarios:
- If Nadal doesn’t win a match at the ATP Finals, Djokovic will become No. 1 by winning the ATP Finals as an undefeated champion OR by losing one RR match and then winning TWO live singles rubbers in Davis Cup with his team winning.

- If Nadal wins one round robin match, Djokovic can only become No. 1 by winning the ATP Finals as an undefeated champion AND then winning TWO live singles rubbers in Davis Cup with his team winning the final.

- If Nadal wins two matches he’ll wrap up No. 1 (12,430 points is greater than Djokovic’s max of 12,335).

To recap: Djokovic must win the ATP Finals to have a No. 1 chance; however, Rafa can clinch the top ranking by winning TWO round robin matches.


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82 Comments for Here’s What Novak Djokovic Has To Do To Finish 2013 No. 1

Brando Says:

Thanks Sean.

I predict that Novak will lose in his RR stage at WTF and throw all the calculations out of the window.

You heard it here first.


James Says:

Rafa didn’t that good against Ferrer in Paris, but I think he wants the WTF. So I think he will win at least two RR matches. He’s fought hard to regain the #1 ranking, he’s not gonna want to lose it so soon.


Brando Says:

@James:

I predict Rafa will win this year’s WTF.

Yep- I said it.

He’s a fighter and absolutely LOVES a challenge. He’ll be keen to shut up a fair few people for doubting him again so soon when he’s just won 10 titles in the season!

I won’t post till the end of the WTF- let’s see how right I shall be.

Remember: I correctly predicted FO, Wimby, USO, IW, MI, Madrid, Rome, Montreal, Cincy this year.

I’m going to back my fav to pull off the win:

VAMOS RAFA!


Hamza Says:

@Brando

As a Rafa fan, I love your confidence. I want to imagine right now that Rafa is angry. And an angry Rafa is a dangerous Rafa.


shamboozie Says:

And that is rocket science, right Brando? Anyone would predict his favourite to win everything.You’re not smart.


Tennis X Hippy Chic Says:

Novak is in a rich vien of form at the moment,and goes to the WTFs as the favorite,but i dont believe hes invincible,and i do believe hes beatable,he was breaks down in both sets today,as he was against Roger yesterday,amazing as he is and not to take anything away from him,but sometimes theres an element of luck involved with some of his matches.


shamboozie Says:

Rafa simply tanked the match against Ferrer as he didn’t want to face Novak. He will be hunt down at the WTF for the tanker that he is.


shamboozie Says:

Please Hippy Chick, stop your weeping.


shamboozie Says:

Just as lucky as Rafa’s draw is. The danger about a draw like Rafas is that he could meet any of the Big Three in the semis, which will happen. Should he, hypothetically, get Federer and beat him, the probility of getting Delpo or Novak? Need I say more? (Apologies for totally discarding Gasquet.


shamboozie Says:

WTF.Bring it on baby. Yeah. Kick-ass tournament.


madmax Says:

Rafael has never beaten Roger at the WTF, it’s Roger’s stomping ground. I don’t see this changing.

Roger will win his matches and get to the final.


Patson Says:

Gasquet can win WTF, only if they change the rules. For example, all shots have to be hit with the backhand. No forehand allowed which means you serve with the backhand, you volley with the backhand, you even hit your forehand with the backhand.

Barring injury to other players, I can see Gasquet winning WTF only with these rules in place.


shamboozie Says:

Maybe right Patson, or the other seven succumb to injury, which will hand him the trophy.


Gordon Says:

What is wrong with ATP race points presented on Atptour web site? Why are they displaying with 2013 also 2008 year?


Tennis X Hippy Chic Says:

Shamboozie im guessing your a newbie here welcome on board,just to say everyone here knows i dont do weeping,anyway just to let you know i dont think theres anything im saying here that can not be considered objective xx :-))..


Giles Says:

VAMOS RAFA!!
VAMOS BRANDO!!


shamboozie Says:

Believe me Madmax, Federer is up to something. He didn’t loose Basel for nothing, neither Paris yesterday. His two sculps in the WTF to hand him the trophy will be Novak and Rafa “Gunslinger” Nadal.


shamboozie Says:

Yeah right Hippychondria. Emotionally objective, intellectually subjective. Latter part of my statement says it all.


madmax Says:

I think it will be a really tight one, down to th wire as they say. Though Novak has to be the favourite. Could he be exhausted right now? I really don’t think so.

I think it is good for Roger that he has an extra day off but I don’t think that Novak would need that. He seems to be iron man right now.

They are so used to playing each other, 30 times now – so Tuesday evening will be a bit of a fed fest again, hopefully though, with unforced errors way down, and more taking opportunities with break points.

Hope that Roger’s confidence will be riding high -it should be.

Would be wonderful to see wawrinka get into some kind of groove at London, being his first time. He has given Rafa some difficulties in the past, and Murray, but I think his back hand is one of the most beautiful shots I have ever seen, so go Stan too!


shamboozie Says:

I am new. This seems like Rafa-x.com. Am I right by any chance?


shamboozie Says:

Right Madmax. Let us hope for a beautifyl tournamente. Vamos WTF!!! Allez!!!Come on!!!


Patson Says:

@shamboozie: We will see. Looking forward to Nole’s encounter with Fed express. In Nole we trust.

Tennis-x probably has more Rafa fans than Fed fans, and then there is a small number of Nole fans, and even smaller number of Andy and Delpo fans.


Giles Says:

Hey @ shamboozle. You say you’re new here but somehow I don’t think so. You’ve been here before right? I seem to recognise your style of writing. Drop the masquerade please!


shamboozie Says:

Okaayyyy Patson. Youre a Nole fan. Good luck to you and your champ.


Josh39485 Says:

@shamboozie Yes, the majority here are Rafa fans. Not that that should bother you, there are quite a few other fans as well


shamboozie Says:

Gills, if I say I am new believe me, just as much as you believe Nadal has chronic knee problems.


shamboozie Says:

Thanks Josh for welcoming me!!!


Tennis X Hippy Chic Says:

Shamboozie it seems such a shame that you not out there celebrating Noles win,rather than wasting nervous energy taking a pop at me,entirely up to you :-))..


shamboozie Says:

Hippy you are from?


shamboozie Says:

I am not a Nole fan. A tennis fan yeah!!


Giles Says:

Ahh so this so- called “new” poster “bamboozle” is a Rafa hater! I don’t think you have made a very bright start here!


Tennis X Hippy Chic Says:

Shamboozie whomever your a fan of,just to say welcome on board the tennis x forum,the more the merrier :))..


shamboozie Says:

Thanks Hippy. Appreciated.


Giles Says:

^^^ You may well live to regret those words!


Josh39485 Says:

Fun times…


Tennis X Hippy Chic Says:

Shamboozie your welcome ;).


madmax Says:

Josh39485 Says:
@shamboozie Yes, the majority here are Rafa fans. Not that that should bother you, there are quite a few other fans as well

November 3rd, 2013 at 1:53 pm

Not so shamboo, or Josh. Firmly a federer fan site, which has recently become overcrowded with masquerading newbies from the now thankfully, defunct TT, they had nowhere else to go and so are here to vent their spleen.


Josh39485 Says:

@madmax I see – that’s news to me too. I’ve not been around for decades, so I just gave my first impression of the site when I joined


Tennis X Hippy Chic Says:

Shamboozie its been Rafa heavy lately due to Rafas stellar year,but at the begining of the year it was all about Novak,depends on the success of a particular player,all swings and roundabouts i suppose.


Tennis X Hippy Chic Says:

Shamboozie im British Rafas my favorite with Murray second,my late mother was half Scottish so my love for Murray was always in the genes,although i like and admire all their rivals,im a fair fan,more to the point a tennis fan,i dont believe one player is bigger than the sport itself.


squirrel Says:

Welcome Shamboozie,it’s nice to have another Fed fan but please,don’t disrespect Rafa, I like us, Fed fans, to be civilised :)

Come on…I love Novak,but you guys seriously think he has a shot at ending world No 1?I mean there’s no way Rafa is not going to to semi in that group,he’s the better player thee by miles!So if he gets to semi,meaning he would have won at least two matches in RR.As much as I’d love to see Nole ends the world at no 1,I don’t think he will…

If he does,I’ll be very happy because I personally think someone who plays the full calendar year deserves that spot so much more than someone who started playing in April,just my humble opinion,nothing against the great Rafa


Hawkeye Says:

Just another federazzi sock puppet and I know which one. Outdoors, Fed never could handle the Top Three once they came of age. Weak Era Paper GOAT. He is still the indoor exho goat though.

Regardless, only first three rounds matter next week.

Other than that, Indoor tennis is an exho joke.


Hawkeye Says:

BBC Tennis (@bbctennis)
Posted at 3 November, 2013 2:16 PM on Twitter
“Can you win slams next year? Federer: “the French is a different story” but everywhere else “it’s more in my racquet than anybody else’s”"

Hahahahahahaha!

Fed? Or PseudoFed?

Hilarious!!!


squirrel Says:

Well,that is Federer,he’s been that way since forever,we all know that.Some interpret it as arrogant,I don’t see it that way.All great champions have a certain indescribable ego I guess…thats what makes them great


Josh39485 Says:

I think he was joking tbh.


James Says:

@madmax, not every Rafa fan has come to this site from TT. I never posted in any Tennis site before TennisX.

@Brando, I hope you’re right. Wow you successfully predicted all those tourneys! Well done, mate!

I don’t know if Rafa will win his first YEC this year. I think he wants it and will fight for it. I’d like to see him in his Montreal mode again.


shamboozie Says:

Thanks Squirrel.


Tennis X Hippy Chic Says:

James ditto this has been the one and only site ive ever posted on,i did have a brief look at TT purely out of curiosity more than anything else,but decided against posting though,i like this site and i dont want too much Rafa love,as the whole point is to interact with fans of different players,i would hope Emily as a Delpo fan becomes a regular poster,and i did like Volleys posts a Tsonga fan,i would love for some Berdych fans to actually post,as i would be interested in the reception they would get,given how people feel about the guy?


Josh39485 Says:

@Hippy Chic double ditto, especially on the Berdych point. I’ve found it difficult to take a liking to him for some reason, but maybe his fans could show me (and others) another side to him that they see which I might like quite well. Case applies to admirers of all players (with some sort of fanbase).


Tennis X Hippy Chic Says:

Josh thankyou it would be a shame,if they decided not to post due to the negativity that Berdych has to stomach sometimes.


Giles Says:

@squirrel. FYI Rafa started playing in February not April as stated by you. Remember the SA swing??


Patson Says:

Berdych has a twitter account. Some of his conversations with PseudoFed have been really funny. In case you do use twitter, you might want to follow him for a while and may be you might develop a liking for him.


Josh39485 Says:

He’s got some entertaining stuff on his twitter page, that’s a good start ;)


squirrel Says:

@Giles oh sorry,that was stupid of me,didn’t check my facts,in that case,he’ll deserve the top spot then.well like I said,he’s going to get it anyway,no way he’s not in the semi.cheers :)


Giles Says:

^^ :-))


M Says:

@shamboozie – Not only are you wrong as two left shoes, but you appear to have failed to review the commenting guidelines prior to providing the site with your, ah, point of view.

Here they are.


hawkeye Says:

M, there are exceptions if you are a fan of a certain player.


Humble Rafa Says:

I feel like I should start conversations with the pseudofed. Seems like an honest guy. We should start our own rivalry.


Josh39485 Says:

@Humble Rafa – PseudoFed is true champion. You are an up-and-coming teenager to him.


Hawkeye Says:

PseudoFed is funny but that last comment by TMF beats anything PseudoFed has ever said.

Hilarious!


Humble Rafa Says:

@Humble Rafa – PseudoFed is true champion. You are an up-and-coming teenager to him.

18 is within my reach.


ATP Finals Preview: Will Novak Djokovic Stay Hot And Defend His 2012 London Title? Says:

[...] isn’t just defending his 2012 title, but also the No. 1 ranking. It’s a longshot but he’ll have to win the title and hope Rafa doesn’t win two matches. So how will all of this unfold? Here’s my breakdown of the [...]


Steve 27 Says:

Djokervic is done. Rafa will be a year-end No. 1. I predict a final between Rafa and Del potro. Will be tough but perhaps he can win this elusive title this time. Vamos!


WTF Says:

Thanks for doing this math. This is going to be exciting.

Although, I do think Rafa will gain some further distance on Nole after the AO early next year.


WTF Says:

Does this mean it’s possible they won’t crown the #1 and award the trophy during this event and would have to do it during DC where there is not the typical audience?


skeezer Says:

“Djokervic is done. Rafa will be a year-end No. 1. I predict a final between Rafa and Del potro. Will be tough but perhaps he can win this elusive title this time. Vamos!”

WTF LMAO!!
Further predictions; Yes and next year all courts will be Clay for your fav and there will be no more indoor courts. Furthermore, only 1 hard court per year will be allowed, and the new proposed time violation rule between points will be determined by “Rafa Time” and must be allowed for picking, swiping, smelling, and touching. Additionally, No bananas will be allowed to eat during changeovers and on court Toni coaching will always be allowed.
This is how you get to 12 Slams…..no?


princessice Says:

Not hoping for too much, just Rafa winning 2 RR matches. Though Rafa repeatedly stated that no. 1 is not his goal it would still be nice to wrap up his 2013 with a cherry on top. :)


Steve 27 Says:

trolling again?. Lol


Giles Says:

Steve 27. He has to offer his daily dose of Rafa hate. Boring, same old, same old!
Vamos Rafa!


Nirmal Kumar Says:

One good thing about Nadal is he does not give much chance to his main rivals to beat him on his worst surface. Both Novak and Roger meet Nadal consistently on his favourite clay surface, but Nadal does not reciprocate much by meeting them in Indoors. Novak had a good change of beating Nadal in this form if he got through to the finals. That’s why it would not be wise to give too much importance to H2H records.


James Says:

@Nirmal Kumar,

Nadal is 2-2 vs Djokovic indoors.

As for Nadal avoiding his main rivals on his worst surface, Nadal did meet Federer in 2006 in Dubai back when Federer was almost unbeatable. It was on a fast court. And guess what? Nadal beat him. I don’t remember Federer having much success against Nadal on outdoor HCs. And Nadal did meet him 4 times indoors which Federer won all.

If Nadal avoided his rivals on his worst surface, the 0-7 against Djokovic would never have happened.

I guess you must have been very surprised when Nadal took on Djokovic in Montreal about 3 months ago? Djokovic had just dismantled Gasquet and said he was playing close to perfection. And what happened next? Nadal defeated Djokovic handily and went on to beat the Serb again for the US Open championship.

NK, would you say that Djokovic tanked at Indian Wells, Madrid, Rome and Cincinnati to avoid Nadal?


Nirmal Kumar Says:

James,

You misunderstood my point. I never mentioned outdoor HC. Dubai is outdoor HC. I mentioned only about Indoors.


roy Says:

points for DC is ridiculous.
they shouldn’t need point incentive to play and it’s completely unfair and downright stupid to have a player’s points in an individual sport tied to the performance of other players in his nation.


hawkeye Says:

skeezer’s finally making some sense albeit a tad OTT.

Too bad he can’t figure out how many majors Rafa’s won. Wishful thinking no doubt.

He’s slowly coming around like so many tennis greats past and present lol.

About time.


Hamza Says:

@Nirmal Kumar

It’s unfair and blatantly false to say Rafa doesn’t meet Federer and Novak on their favorite surfaces. Rafa has played Fed 4 times indoors which is a fair share of matches. But indoor hardcourts one must remember are also not a grandslam surface. But outdoor hardcourts are. It is remarkable that Federer is able to beat Rafa on indoor hard-courts but finds it hard on outdoor hard-courts, a surface on which he’s won 9 grandslams. Are you telling me that outdoor hard-courts are not Federer’s best surface + environment ?

As for Novak, Rafa has played Novak over 15 times or may be 18 times on hard-courts. And they’ve played each other like 37 or 38 times. The rest have been on clay and grass. That is a big fraction of matches being played on Novak’s best surface.

Your claim is false and cannot be backed up by facts.


skeezer Says:

Rafa is going to win 2 matches @ WTF. Why not?

It is nice to see the race to #1 will be decided at the WTF. But apparently a few tiny minuscule fraction of the tennis rafafanatic fandom thinks it is an Exho. Hee Hee.


hawkeye Says:

Well at least one Swiss won a WTF friendly.

Heeeeeeere comes Nole!!!!!

Shank-you. Shank-you very much!

(Hawkeye has left the building.)


Steve 27 Says:

Nirmal Kumar is wrong, you cant compare clay with his 3 master 1000 (Montecarlo is not obligatory but Djoker insist to spoil the party) and a gs with indoord hc when there is one Master 1000 and the WTF. Basel? Is an ATP 500 and is like Barcelona, Is Djokovic playing there?. But dont worry, will be one more Nadal Djokovic this year. Could be sf or the final. Btw, I always think Djokers prefered surface is slow hc like plexicushion and not a indoor hc.


skeezer Says:

“(Hawkeye has left the building.)”
no one cares.


hawkeye Says:

You do (or you would have just scrolled lol).

You’re welcome My fan.


hawkeye Says:

Oh yes, and the moderators care obviously.

Sorry moderators. Didn’t mean to leave you out.

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