Indian Wells Men’s Preview: Will Nadal Beat Murray, Federer And Djokovic To Defend Title?

History suggests Rafa will not be able to defend. If I’m not mistaken, he has never defended a hard-court title. On the flip side, there is always a first time.

Adje Nole !

March 4th, 2014 at 11:43 pm

I’m with you Patson, only because if Nole is going to make a statement this year, he pretty much has to start making that statement here. A lot of fans and the like are still questioning the BB aquisition, and its getting time to see results. Me thinks Nole with this draw and less than expected recent results, he will be focused and determined. The other half of the draw? A nightmare. So many different scenarios could happen that it is ridiculous to predict. I like the Dimitrov pick. Is he ready? This is the kind of tournament he needs to make a statement. Can he double down here?

March 4th, 2014 at 11:58 pm

I hope Roger could defeat Rafa this time. I would love it as he has already defeated the other two guys of big four.
Bring back the 2012 indian wells perforamace Roger. We fans love to see you play. Good luck.

March 5th, 2014 at 1:58 am

“The second quarter is home to team Switzerland with both Wawrinka and Roger Federer seeded to meet in the quarters. Will they get there?”

That is a very deep question. When reading the article, I thought Fed might not. Wawrinka would definitely want to prove that he belongs. On second thoughts, my prediction is the two will definitely clash there!! Goodluck pals!!

March 5th, 2014 at 2:02 am

Jatin history is not on Rafas side anyway,as he has never defended a none CC title,will this year break that trend who knows?but i think its Rogers best chance of getting a W over Rafa,assuming both get that far.

March 5th, 2014 at 2:03 am

I look forward to a potential Murray/Rafa match up here,as the two havent faced each other since Tokoyo in 2011,and add to that Rafa hasnt actually faced Andy as a GS champion so that will be interesting,i find it spooky that both have kept on avoiding each other all this time,will this time be any different i hope so?i just wish that they were in different halfs of the draw for a change.

March 5th, 2014 at 2:09 am

I wonder if there will be a bracket challenge,as the site seems to have closed?

March 5th, 2014 at 2:14 am

Sean,

Thanks for laying down your analysis. It’s a tough thing to do and you are always open to shots from the experts in here who are 100% right as they proudly make their predictions as the trophy is being handed out.

You always provide a great in-depth look at these draws. Thanks again.

March 5th, 2014 at 2:22 am

Sean said let the madness begin. Yoooohooo and welcome!!!!
Rafa”s draw remind me of Wimbledon 2013 draw.
Come on RAFA, show us that you can defend hardcourt title.

March 5th, 2014 at 2:27 am

Tuffie for Rafa. So what else is new?
Vamos Champ!

March 5th, 2014 at 3:39 am

Alison says ” but I think it’s Roger’s best chance of getting a W over Rafa”. How do you come to that conclusion?

March 5th, 2014 at 3:44 am

C’mon Roger! He’ll have to play well to win this title again. He usually does well here; last time he lost early was in 2010 when he was recovering from an infection.

Nadal has made at least the semis for 8 years in a row at IW so it’s almost a given that Federer will run into him–assuming Federer makes it that far.

March 5th, 2014 at 4:10 am

Last year we were told that history was not on Rafa’s side in the North American swing, after all, he had never won Cincy and never does well on the Nth American h/courts anyway.

What did Rafa do? Shut them all up by winning Montreal, Cincy and the USO, beating the so-called h/c specialist in Montreal and the USO.

March 5th, 2014 at 6:17 am

Alison, what is “Rafa hasn’t actually faced Andy as a GS champion so that will be interesting,” supposed to mean? Murray has won nothing since winning Wimbledon last year.

March 5th, 2014 at 6:23 am

Rafa all the way!!!

Stan will beat Roger. Stan like Roger is plain lucky. Stan keeps saying he deserved the Oz win, which is pitiful. He may have won it but did not merit it since Rafa was playing injured, with blister in the serving hand! Rafa professional as he is chose to gut it out. Roger would have Quit, a quitter as we now found out based on his contrarian statements recently.

Actually Tursonov might take him out. Roger this year will be up and down — and that more than anything will be more devastating to his psyche.

March 5th, 2014 at 8:11 am

Except Rafa, I believe most of the others have played HC tournaments post AO. Maybe a slight disadvantage to Rafa as he may have to face Murray who is tuned to HC’s now, only if Murray gets that far.

I still believe Novak would be the man to beat, followed by Roger, if Murray can take out Rafa.

March 5th, 2014 at 8:20 am

Last year, Rafa shut up all detractors quite nicely.

And he will again because there is a definite and calculated design to his excellent play. First, defeat the lucky Swiss everyone was fawning about in hardcourts, in straights, s and v even. But he got injured. So, do it in stages. Master clay and he did. Then dethrone roger in grass. Done. Denying roger till 2012 when he got injured again. Then to hard courts to make roger cry the first in 3. Then where was roger when rafa was in the finals at US open? Oh that’s right, Novak just beats the “@@ out of him everytime. And complain that Novak should not use that winning shot. Such arrogance and petulance!

See the pattern? In spite of hardships, Rafa is back at No 1 a third time and roger is no. 8.

I would imagine by now, everybody sees what Rafa is doing.

Proof? 23-10 and counting!

March 5th, 2014 at 8:32 am

I hope Dimitrov wins. We need more new blood in the mix. It’d also be pretty cool if Wawrinka’s win starts a crazy trend for the remainder of the year.

March 5th, 2014 at 8:42 am

Well assuming that the draw unfolds as expected and those 3 matches take place I’d give Nadal a good chance in theory to overcome Murray, Federer and Djokovic in succession. Of course a better assessment can be made after we see in what kind of form the 4 of them bring to the courts. But if anyone can do it I’m sure Nadal is one of them.

March 5th, 2014 at 8:46 am

Nadal won’t make it to last 8

March 5th, 2014 at 10:44 am

Dimitrov is tuned-up and ready. He said it himself in so many words when he said he wants a masters and a GS next. If you missed watching him beat Gulbis, Murray, and Anderson on some kind of hard court surface in Acapulco, it is worth catching on youtube.

Check out his running forehand and his foot speed. Despite the OTT media hype around him, he seems to genuinely love his job. Contrast him with Bellucci who is talented and athletic but shines on a practice court, not on a big stage.

March 5th, 2014 at 10:49 am

Nirmal Kumar, last year, Rafa hadn’t played on h/c since Miami 2012 and he won IW!!!!!!!

March 5th, 2014 at 10:52 am

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/03/roger-federer-retire-match/

March 5th, 2014 at 10:52 am

In fact Rafa didn’t even play Miami 2012, he gave Murray a WO his last match on h/c was IW 2012. He took 7 months off came back on tour, played on clay and then won IW.

March 5th, 2014 at 10:58 am

Rafaeli is that a trick question?(sigh)anyway let me clarify,Nadal and Murray are my two favorite players in that order,and i am looking forward to seeing that match up between the two as they havent as i already stated met since Tokoyo 2011,and Nadal has not played Murray yet as a GS champion,so it will be interesting to see how they match up now against each other,the dynamics are different now,Murray is not a mental miget any more against the other top players,he knows how to beat Novak and Roger,time will tell how he reacts to playing Rafa,and vice versa,no need to get your G.STRING in a twist is there now?

March 5th, 2014 at 11:02 am

Considering Federer couldn’t do National Service because of a bad back, and he had mono for years, it’s pretty remarkable that he’s never retired from a match.

I hope the Swiss government take note and investigate his back issue.

March 5th, 2014 at 11:09 am

rafaeli, correct. I’m not ruling out Rafa, but I just thought there guys are better tuned in HC. Also Rafa had a back injury this year in AO and has not faced top players yet. I would have given him a clear cut favourite if not for above reasons. Doesn’t matter any way, if he plays well he would beat the field.

March 5th, 2014 at 11:09 am

^^^ Woohoo. What happened to the intelligentsia that is supposed to be you. Who’s posting links now?
Woot! Faderer breaks another record!! He has never retired in a match? That’s because he’s never been injured enough to retire. Or has he ever been injured???

March 5th, 2014 at 11:09 am

My last comment for 10.52 post.

March 5th, 2014 at 11:11 am

Hashtag fiend strikes again:

RT @rogerfederer: “Checking out the new stadium 2 here at #indianwells #givethebuilderabonusforbuildingsoquickly pic.twitter.com/Sz4OcnTUoP”

———————————————-

#BanHim
#DoingTheLaughings

March 5th, 2014 at 11:14 am

Federer will beet Wawrinka should they meet.

Wawrinka has really upped his game to its maximum potential to the point that the game is essentially on his racquet now against anyone outside the Top 4.

Against the Top 4, he needs help by them being off either mentally (Nole) or physically (Fed, Rafa).

March 5th, 2014 at 11:16 am

Roger can definitely pride himself on his conduct in the court. You can’t be a top player and play without injuries. Just that Roger shows it much less than others and takes the injury in his chin and goes about his business is remarkable.

Perfect role model.

March 5th, 2014 at 11:18 am

You know you’re running out of arguments when you have to say never being injured is some kind of drawback on Federer.

Pignoose, the problem with Dimitrov is he’s still wildly inconsistent. His match against Gulbis was some of the ugliest tennis ever played by two guys who generally play very pretty tennis. But that he won is definitely a great boost going forward. And beating Murray in a third set tiebreaker says a lot about his mental toughness.

With so much talk about celebrity coaches, it’s been overlooked but it’s clear that the partnership between Roger Rasheed and Dimitrov is paying off. The best thing about Dimitrov is that he can play on all surfaces naturally. I can’t see him actually winning any of the masters until he actually wins one, but he can continue building momentum without any hindurance due to surface changes.

March 5th, 2014 at 11:22 am

Giles yes I noticed the links being provided when said poster ridiculed the behaviour. He’s mimicing his fav’s recent change in stance of considering “hiding” if he is injured.

Pitchaboy Says:
Nadal won’t make it to last 8

Out of the Top 4, you may be right because the rest have easy draws to the quarters.

Fed has a “tough” qualifier, followed by slow playing Dimitri Tursunov, Tommy “Never-Was” Haas (36 years old next month).

Nadal gets Istomin, Dolgopolov and Monfils.

Fed can moon walk his way to that quarter and then he faces his “nemesis” Stan in the quarters. Laughable.

No comparison.

March 5th, 2014 at 11:30 am

The real tangible difference with BabyFed is his new found endurance. He used to fade away in matches. Credit Rasheed for this.

March 5th, 2014 at 11:32 am

Ben, true, he is a bit like Monfils. But the pairing with Roger Rasheed and his improved fitness and strength, gives me hope.

March 5th, 2014 at 11:40 am

I won’t insult Dimitrov by comparing him to Monfils. As much as I enjoy Monfils, he’s clearly more preoccupied with entertaining than winning. Rasheed tried to help him not too long ago but it didn’t go anywhere. Monfils is a physical freak, but he’s just not motivated enough.

Dimitrov needed help with his fitness, and Rasheed definitely helped there. But Dimitrov clearly wants to be a top player. You can read it in most of his interviews. Before his final against Anderson he flat out said he likes his chances. He ended up having to rally in the final set and in the tiebreaker. So he’s a little over confident. But he wants it. He’s willing to put in the hard yards and it’s simply awesome.

March 5th, 2014 at 11:55 am

It maybe the Pova influence.

March 5th, 2014 at 12:28 pm

^ was thinking that too.

But enough of Dimitrov for me. His playing activity still doesn’t support picking him any further than a quarter-final at best.

Another very interesting coach/player pairing is Cilic and Goran Ivanisovic. Cilic back to his 2010 form with a relaxed, confident serve would be nice to see.

March 5th, 2014 at 12:34 pm

TA 11.30 am. Thanks.

March 5th, 2014 at 12:37 pm

I actually think none of the big guns wins this one. I like Rafa’s draw but me thinks one of : Del Potro, Dimitrov or Wawrinka wins here. Call me crazy but that’s my gut feeling on this one. I think before the year is over Dimitrov will have a MS win on his résumé and will be a top 10 player. Book it.

March 5th, 2014 at 12:50 pm

Nah, Delpo is hurt. I was shocked to see him still in the draw.

Wawa? Buy low sell high. I’m selling.

For me, IW will DEFINIETLY be Top 4.

Out of those three, I like BabyFed. I think he can very realistically make semis here.

Berdych in the round of 16 would be his biggest roadblock but only Gasquet in the quarters.

March 5th, 2014 at 1:25 pm

Speaking of Berdych, it should be interesting to see how he reacts. I said it earlier, he’s playing extremely well. And he really let Federer off the the hook in Dubai. Maybe it’ll make him hungrier. Or maybe he’ll fall back again. But again, he’s playing well. Dimitrov vs Berdych is mouth watering right now.

March 5th, 2014 at 1:40 pm

^ Be happy to be wrong, but I’m selling Stan, too.
and del Potro is injured plus Murray – both of them are unsure of themselves.

Then when you think how inconsistent Dolgopolov, Fognini, and Monfils are and add the odds of cruising past Federer, Nadal’s draw looks sweet.

Have to agree with Sean Randall that the final looks like a Nadal/Djokovic one. And Djokovic is due to win, at least to this fan.

March 5th, 2014 at 1:40 pm

Was trying to give a chance and more time to the idea of Boris Becker and Novak but…

March 5th, 2014 at 1:51 pm

Besides Vajda, Djokovic’s other picks for consultants/coaches have been a complete gong show.

I hear Jimmy Connors is still available.

March 5th, 2014 at 2:21 pm

Berdych is not getting any younger, has only one masters (Paris indoors) and should be hungry for it but there is something about Berdych and Indian Wells that has yet to work. He posted a career best result by making the semi last year but lost to Nadal in straight sets.

Anyway, best of luck to Tomas Berdych this year!

That’s all from me on the ATP draw. Moving on to WTA.

March 5th, 2014 at 2:40 pm

Speaking of Berdych, the greates post-match interview exchange of all time (or GPMIEOAT).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8kUvhHynPc

March 5th, 2014 at 2:50 pm

Lol, Translated Age, that is for sure!

March 5th, 2014 at 2:55 pm

^that was to Djokovic’s gong show picks and Jimmy Conners, TA.

March 5th, 2014 at 2:56 pm

Too bad Berdych can’t be as relaxed and clever closing out big matches as he is in that post-match interview. He is a charming on twitter too.

March 5th, 2014 at 3:05 pm

Yes I follow him as well on the Twitterverse.

I like Berdy. I hope he does well this year. I got to watch him practise up close last year. He’s bigger than he looks on TV.

March 5th, 2014 at 3:13 pm

Wawrinka gets no respect. He won the GS and still, no confidence that he’ll get far.

March 5th, 2014 at 3:32 pm

I want someone other than big 4 to win, it would add so much excitement! But realistically it’ll probably be Nole or Nadal.

March 5th, 2014 at 3:45 pm

Giles @3.44am what i meant was that Rafa and Roger match up quite well at IW,im obviously not saying its a gimee,he just has a better chance is all.

March 5th, 2014 at 3:54 pm

^^^ I am asking you again, why does he (Faderer) have a better chance?

March 5th, 2014 at 3:58 pm

IMO I believe he has a better chance at IW than anywhere else,AS I HAVE ALREADY SAID.

March 5th, 2014 at 4:04 pm

^^^ Why?

March 5th, 2014 at 4:05 pm

It will be interesting to see how Stan fairs on his 1st tourney back on the tour as a GS champion,the dynamics are different now,he knows he can beat the likes of Rafa and Novak,im just wondering if hes actually peaked too late?and im sure the top guys will be out to make a statement,and theres some young blood begining to make some noise too,or maybe he will go on some tear this year.

March 5th, 2014 at 4:10 pm

I have already told you,now im done on the subject,so please let it lie.

March 5th, 2014 at 4:12 pm

^^^ You make a statement but fail to back it up.

March 5th, 2014 at 4:16 pm

Best of 3, medium paced courts, bounce not very high, dry desert air makes the ball fly. I see why Hippy Chic says Federer has a better chance of beating Nadal here, as opposed to let’s say Miami (slow courts, humid air, less pace on the ball). However imo 2/3 of Roger’s problems are in his head. So if he comes with the usual “this is hopeless” attitude he won’t stand a chance.

March 5th, 2014 at 4:53 pm

For Roger’s sake, I hope he tanks or loses to Tursonov.

It would just be pitiful if he loses again to 24-10.
That would just be awful for the federinas and rogerlings for they will just be left with the only argument of – but but but Roger is such a balletic player!

If you want artistry, go see ice dancing or any figure skating, including mens with those frilly, sequined crap.

23-10 : the only stat fans need to know! Why? Tennis is a mano a mano sport not team. Duh!

People at ATP must be stupid to even collect and archive such data. No?

23-10. Ouch.

March 5th, 2014 at 6:22 pm

It is amazing that sportswriters seem to discount Rafa’s achievements, always qualifying that hardcourts he is now playing on are sloooow???? What capola is that? Nothing but to subltly insinuate that Rafa is not good in hardcourts.
Such spin-doctoring is so prevalent amounting to no less than roger cheerleading! Is this why Mary Carillo left after toe–ing the “tennis company or Espn” corporate line?

But surely, great Rafa fans know the discernible evolution of Rafa’s continued improvement – Olympic hardcourts, Oz harvourts, Cincy hardvourts and no sooner beating Roger in his own INDOOR HARDCOURTS! 9-6 pal!!!

Just a claycourter? Yeah, right! 9-6.

11-10 in tiebreaks, more 1000s titles not the low tier 250 nobodys to inflate total titles!

23-10 going 24-10

March 5th, 2014 at 6:32 pm

Too bad your not THE definitive decider on what makes the GOAT. Just because you keep selling yourself on h2h stats and masters titles doesn’t make Rafa’s status so.
Rafa has accumulated some great achievements, no doubt. But have to step on Fed to justify it? Lol.
Each man stands on there own record against th cariety of tournamenys and the overall field.

And sayin how he is gonna beatdown Fed again, now 32, is pathetic. Rafa will be 32.
One day soon…..then? Hehe…(if he is arill playing then)

#toomuchkoolaid
#differentmonikersameposter

March 5th, 2014 at 7:29 pm

Looks like the mac bros are grtting a doubles lesson by the bryan bros. anyone seeing this?

March 5th, 2014 at 8:17 pm

I don’t think Dimitrov can beat Nole after running so hot at Acapulco. Fatigue.
His best chance is in next tour, if he wants to keep up his statement to have master title.

March 5th, 2014 at 8:41 pm

Happy chic
I agree. Indian wells 2012 was perfect example in which fed played an awesome match against Rafa and given the way his back is fine again, I won’t rule his chances against Rafa. But its quite a draw.
I still remember that tokeyo match. I think murray bagled Rafa in 3rd. I remember getting shocked with the level of play murray showed against him and I knew he would win big in 2012.
Rafa vs murray would be a mouthwatering clash. But my gut feelings tell me that murray won’t reach that far. I don’t know why.
Lets see how Rafa fares here. I think he has shut down his dictators months ago about him being great in clay only by sweeping the Us open series. So, he has a great chance here and in Miami too.

Sidenote: You are one the best Rafa fan out here who unlike some don’t belittle other greats to justify the sucess of your fav and that’s a great thing. A genuine tennis fan indeed. :)

March 5th, 2014 at 9:34 pm

@Chic

Have you had enough of TX yet?? Lol. Just wondering….you’ve been questioned a lot today…..sigh.

March 5th, 2014 at 9:49 pm

Roger and wawa, teams up for double.hehehehe. news indeed.

March 5th, 2014 at 9:57 pm

One of Nadal/Djokovic will win. Roger has a chance if he avoids Nadal. Unfortunately for Federer, Nadal’s a much better hard court player now than he was 3-4 years ago.

It would be good to finally see Nadal-Murray match in more than 2 years. I hope it happens.

It’s funny Nadal’s never defended a non clay title in a decade long career yet. He has a lot of non clay titles to defend this year. Which one will be the first? I think it will be Indian Wells or Rogers Cup. Not sure about Cincinnati and US Open.

March 5th, 2014 at 10:35 pm

@metan, I’m not sure Dimitrov can get to Nole. Gulbis might take him out before that. Dimi’s improving as a player though.

I’m interested to see how Nishikori performs in the first Master 1000 of the year. I expect him to beat Haas and meet Federer.

March 5th, 2014 at 10:41 pm

James. Where have you been??? I hardly see your post. Richie guy? 😜

March 5th, 2014 at 10:48 pm

Sean,

You picked Humble Highness to win Wimbledon. Didn’t turn out well. Worried about the jinx.

If I am healthly, the world is at my feet. Everyone know that, I just want to reiterate.

March 5th, 2014 at 11:04 pm

It is just too bad that Roger has woeful h2h against Rafa. Had it been the reverse, do you really think the rogerlings and federtards will not exult it to high heavens to justify Goat or goat cheese?

Well, tough! But then you can invoke that 17 right?
Skeezer?
So, what is the problem?

Oh, I see, Rafa had a greater chance of catchingup to 18 than Roger reversing the 23-10.

Just the facts.

March 6th, 2014 at 12:52 am

It is funny that when Roger was in his prime and a more seasoned player beating up and coming inexperienced players Rafa Murray and Novak there is no reservation to his winning record. A record simply because he is older. and yet when roger gets besten regularly at 32, old age is a convenient excuse.

Cant have your cake and eat it too. Take your lumps. No mercy for aging 32 old players. They got their heydays then so the reckoning of nature even-ning the score is at hand.

Ta da!

March 6th, 2014 at 1:03 am

Giles read the posts of Branco and Jatin,they seem to get what im talking about.

March 6th, 2014 at 1:51 am

Okiegal lol yeah thats why i swiched of the computer last night,as id had enough of the 3rd degree,i get enough of that in my job,one old lady says why?after everything.

March 6th, 2014 at 2:05 am

Jatin@9.34pm thankyou and i will return that compliment right back at you,i will never belittle Rogers achievements to make me feel better about Rafas,they only thing i do is defend Rafa when people belittle his,as far as i am concerned both are such unique talents that have set the bar really high,so we should give both their much deserved credit IMO.

March 6th, 2014 at 2:12 am

I don’t think Roger ever goes into a match against Nadal with a ‘this is hopeless attitude’, Roger always thinks he’s got the questions only to find that Rafa’s got the answers.

March 6th, 2014 at 3:29 am

James Rafa has never defended a none CC title,it is strange i agree,and its something thats always p*ssed me off,well not so much that but people who are none fans that cannot seem to resist the urge to bring it up as a slant on his achievements,at every given oppotunity,do we here that Novak has never defended a none HC title?no we dont,and why should we as his achievements are also amazing,anyway i agree in that he won alot of HC titles last year,so by the law of averages,you would think he stands a good chance of breaking that trend this year,if he only defended one HC title this year then please let it be the USO :))..

March 6th, 2014 at 12:39 pm

Lets the party begin!

March 6th, 2014 at 3:03 pm

HC, as far as 1000 levels and up, Muzza and Nole have never defended a non HC title.

Nor has Fed post 2007.

March 6th, 2014 at 3:35 pm

And, at this level, there is over twice as many opportunities to defend a HC title compared to clay.

9 HC tournaments and 4 clay.

Hope this helps!

March 6th, 2014 at 3:38 pm

TA Thanks for that piece of info,and its not a knock on them and so it shouldnt be,and its not an issue with me either,but ive just never understood why its only an issue with Rafa,the double standards are the things that p*ss me off here sometimes.

March 6th, 2014 at 4:04 pm

[…] at the men’s quarterfinal lineup, did anyone get all eight? I know I didn’t. I had Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and that’s it. But that’s the new tour, it’s […]

March 13th, 2014 at 10:48 am