Poll: Who’ll Win The Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Miami Final?
by Staff | April 3rd, 2015, 9:01 pm
  • 74 Comments

Two rivals and good friends meet again for the third time this year, the 26th overall as World No. 1 Novak Djokovic clashes with Andy Murray in the Miami Open final.

Djokovic leads 17-8 winning the last six meeting since Murray’s return from back surgery 15 months ago. The two met at the Australian Open and again last month at Indian Wells, won easily by the Serb.

Murray does have a win over Djokovic in the 2009 Miami final, but that was Novak’s only loss in four meetings on the part-time Miami’s resident’s practice court.

And Djokovic has won the last nine battles on the hardcourts.

Both come off well-played straight-set semifinal wins Friday, and both should be well rested after a Saturday day off.

Earlier, Murray had no trouble beating Tomas Berdych 6-4, 6-4 leveling his head-to-head with the Czech st 6-6.

“I felt like I served well,” said Murray. “It was tricky from one end of the court. We’re basically serving right into the sun at that time of day, so I had to take a little bit off the serve. On the second serve it was very tough to see.

“But I thought when I was behind in games, like the last game, for example, I came up with some big serves and was able to dictate a lot of the rallies from the baseline as well. I was moving him around a lot. That was good.”

After a tough first set, Djokovic advanced tonight in convincing fashion over the dangerous big server John Isner 7-6, 6-2. Isner had just earned back-to-back Top 10 wins but looked wary in the second set against the World No. 1.

“I’m glad that I managed to realise everything that I intended tactically before the match,” said Djokovic. “It’s always tough to play somebody that serves that well.

“At the end of the day, it is important to hang in there mentally, be patient… I used the court very well, and [I’m] pleased with the performance.”

Djokovic is seeking a fifth Miami title. He has won his last nine Masters finals and 15 straight wins at that level. Murray is bidding for his third Miami title and first win of the season.

The match will be played Sunday at 1pm ET.


You Might Like:
Poll: Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal? Who’ll Win The Miami Final?
Poll: Novak Djokovic Or Andy Murray, Who’ll Win The 2016 French Open Men’s Final?
Poll: Who’ll Win The French Open Final Between Novak Djokovic And Stan Wawrinka?
Poll: Andy Murray v Novak Djokovic At The ATP Finals For No. 1, Who’ll Win?
Poll: Who’ll Win More Wimbledons, Novak Djokovic Or Petra Kvitova?

Don't miss any tennis action, stay connected with Tennis-X

Get the FREE TX daily newsletter

74 Comments for Poll: Who’ll Win The Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Miami Final?

django Says:

The way he played against isner I would say Djok is slight favorite.
Berd is clueless.


jane Says:

just got home: congrats to nole. another final. very proud of his efforts to get there, even though he definitely was not playing that well earlier in the week.


chris ford1 Says:

Don’t think Nole is going to give it to him, but Andy is getting married in a week, and Dokovic remembers how great it was winning Wimbledon then tying the knot a couple weeks later.

Nole wanting to win, but maybe thinking losing to Andy wouldn’t be the end of the world. Been 5 1/2 months since Andy won a tournament. Lot of people would like to see Andy get the monkey off his back. The last Slam/1000/500 trophy he got was Wimbledon 2013.

Other question is if the wedding next weekend will distract Andy somehow.


Sidney Says:

Hoping for a classic 3 setter in the final.

Too close to call!

Very small edge to Novak just because he’s number 1, but Andy negates that edge with ‘home’ court familiarity.


skeezer Says:

“Andy is getting married in a week, and Dokovic remembers how great it was winning Wimbledon then tying the knot a couple weeks later.”
Hilarious, its really about there personal lives that will determine a match? If it is, they are both weak minded and I don’t believe it. Can you imagine the “I lost cause I am getting married” or whatever relationship issues?
LMAO.
These 2 are playing for the title cause they earned it in their play, period.
“Other question is if the wedding next weekend will distract Andy somehow.”
Another LMAO. Watch more General Hospital for edification.


Margot Says:

Lol Skeeze, am inclined to agree. Anyway, Andy has sorted the food out already, so there’s nothing else for him to worry about. He’s more or less said this btw, am not making it up ;)
The only thing that matters for Andy, in this final, is his serve.
If his serve is “on” then it’s game on! If not, give trophy to Nole now.


Nirmal Kumar Says:

Last week during IW, I was critical of Andy and his game. But he looks much improved now. Against Berd, he had some decent serves and more importantly had some good angles in GS and also his FH seems to be better now. It was a day match. Not sure of the schedule for the finals.

I would give him an equal chance against Novak. That was not the case in IW.


Michael Says:

Novak looked pretty solid against Isner, a match I thought he might lose considering how well Isner was playing coupled with his menacing serve. But, Novak, the Champion that he is, has perfected the art of converting adversity into an opportunity and he took full advantage of the Isner’s relatively weak second serve manoeuvuring with his double handed back hand slice from the back of the court with deft pace variations and imparting heavy spin. He knew that Isner would love flat hitting and so he just cut the pace of the ball to rattle him and he succeeded in his design. Where he couldn’t outfox Isner was when he was attempting lobbying over his head which always fell in the striking zone of Isner. To lob to a 7 feet six inches tall man is certainly not a good strategy.

Coming to the other match, Andy looked good against Berdych but the later was simply not upto mark and was shanking the ball which made Andy’s life easy on court. But all credit to Andy, he gave no quarter to Berdych and was just dictating play from the back of the court with his fine angles and variations.

If you ask me the pick for the final, I have to only go with Novak as of late he has got the measure of Andy and he no longer allows the later to dictate him.


jane Says:

“he took full advantage of the Isner’s relatively weak second serve ”

i was kind of surprised you said that michael, because i wouldn’t've ever thought isner’s serve – first or second – would be called weak, relatively or not. so i checked and in fact isner is 1st for second serve points won right now. raonic is third. nole is second.

that’s for 2015, but even in 2014 isner ended the year in 2nd place overall for second serve points won. so i really don’t think his second serve is weak considering how apparently effective it is.


Margot Says:

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/apr/04/djokovic-isner-murray-miami-open

A nice write up. Apparently Andy has invented some new strokes. :)


Hippy Chick Says:

Congrats to Novak on making the final,i hope Andy wins although i admit to not been too optomistic,just hope he serves and returns well and its a close match,and not an IW type washout,i dont really look forward to this match up anymore,but on the positive side at least Andy puts himself into contention….


Hippy Chick Says:

Its a landslide in the poll so far….


jane Says:

margot, from that write up, it appears andy and nole have almost owned the event for the better part of a decade.

“Djokovic won the Key Biscayne title in 2007, 2011, 2012 and 2014. Murray won the championship in 2009 and 2013, and was the runner-up in 2012.”

fitting, then, that they shall meet again.


sienna Says:

it is time for Murray to step it up.
a competative match is what he needs.

and all this talk about Nishikori being


Giles Says:

And now it’s time for the joker to lose so …..


KatH Says:

Yes, it’s hilarious – Andy doing his bit to decide the food for the wedding – apparently he went to the tastings.

Also saw Andy’s new strokes with bizarre names – hope he’s got another couple in his pocket to introduce against Nole.

Sunday’s match? To some degree Andy’s got nothing to lose – he’s done well so far and he’ll get another shot at Nole later – however, be great if he wins…..


sienna Says:

the next big thing in tennis is premature and unrealistic.


Markus Says:

Djokovic vs Murray is so much better than Djokovic vs Isner even when Murray plays poorly. Isner always (and I mean always in its truest sense) makes any match boring regardless of who he plays against.


brando Says:

Has to be Novak. I just cannot think of a single edge Andy has on him at all: recent form= novak recent h2h= 6-0 for Novak. Then there’s game: Andy is a great returner, with a excellent BH and moves very well. Guess what though, Novak for many trumps him in all 3 departments. Factor in novaks better FH and much superior, consistent serve then as I mentioned earlier: I just cannot see what edge Andy has over Novak. Mentality wise also Novak is superior. The only department I’d say Andy is at the net but on a slow HC how often is anyone really going to venture there, make it a consistent tactic or go there on a big point. Not much I feel. I think the only way for Andy to win is: for him to play at his best and Novak to be somewhat below par. He needs that help from novak, just to get a win under his belt, some confidence running since right now this matchup- and no one can deny the blatant truth of it- seems all one way traffic. I think Ben said it the other day best: Novak is quite simply the better player and the better player is winning as he should in all these matches on his surface of choice: Hard court. Seeing as this is a slow HC and Novaks favourite court outside Rod Laver Arena, one can safely say he is the ominous favourite at the least, close to certain bet at best. It’s a tough, tall order to be sure for Andy.


brando Says:

Has to be Novak. I just cannot think of a single edge Andy has on him at all: recent form= novak recent h2h= 6-0 for Novak. Then there’s game: Andy is a great returner, with a excellent BH and moves very well. Guess what though, Novak for many trumps him in all 3 departments. Factor in novaks better FH and much superior, consistent serve then as I mentioned earlier: I just cannot see what edge Andy has over Novak. Mentality wise also Novak is superior. The only department I’d say Andy is at the net but on a slow HC how often is anyone really going to venture there, make it a consistent tactic or go there on a big point. Not much I feel. I think the only way for Andy to win is: for him to play at his best and Novak to be somewhat below par. He needs that help from novak, just to get a win under his belt, some confidence running since right now this matchup- and no one can deny the blatant truth of it- seems all one way traffic. I think Ben said it the other day best: Novak is quite simply the better player and the better player is winning as he should in all these matches on his surface of choice: Hard court. Seeing as this is a slow HC and Novaks favourite court outside Rod Laver Arena, one can safely say he is the ominous favourite at the least, close to certain bet at best. It’s a tough, tall order to be sure for Andy.


brando Says:

Apologies ‘re double post.


Markus Says:

Double agree to your double posts, Brando. :-)


Margot Says:

@Markus
Lol to paraphrase TV: “I always look forward to Isner’s matches,” nobody said! ;)
@Brando
Andy fans have learnt to travel hopefully…. and realistically. As I said above, if Andy’s serve is on, game on.
At the mo. at least Andy is getting himself into the right position and compared with last year, everything at the mo. is a bonus. It’s yoinks since he made 2 Master’s finals on the trot.


madmax Says:

Novak such a gentleman and these two are great friends.

Watching them both play in another final, will be great.

Any personal issues, will be left off the court, shouldn’t interfere with their game whatsoever.

I have noticed that Andy is playing with more confidence. It was only a matter of time; will see if he is able to step it up one more notch.

Novak mentioned about playing two night matches in a row and hoping that he can readjust to the daytime conditions – he has done this many times, as have others – it will be mindset on the day.

There is no reason why Andy can’t beat Novak. He has the strokes, I just think that Novak will edge it as his confidence is riding really high right now.


Markus Says:

Andy’s fans have all the reason to be pleased with his performance recently. He has been putting himself in a position to beat the best. It looks like he has been focusing and applying himself better with each match he plays. How many slam finals did he lose before he won his? Perseverance pays. It hurts to lose any final but better to get there and have a chance than none at all. Chin up!


Nirmal Kumar Says:

Huge respect to Andy. He has again proved he has a champion mindset. It’s ok to lose a tennis match, but only few champions have the mentality to persevere and keep trying. He could have so easily disappointed with his loses in the finals and gone to a shell. Instead he comes back and challenges again.

He did the same in 2012, when he lost in Wimby finals, he came back and won Olympics. I believe he won USO the same year, or something significant. I expect a great year from him with the way he is improving with each tournament.

Definitely he is playing a higher quality tennis than he played at IW. He might lose tomorrow, but I’m sure he is here to stay for the rest of the year and challenge top guys, which he could not do last year.


Margot Says:

Thanx for those gr8 comments guys n’ gal!


Okiegal Says:

My heart is with Andrew on this one, but my head tells me Novak. Hope I’m wrong, would love to see Andy the victor, after all he’s my second fav atm! Will the crowd back Andy? Isn’t Miami home away from home for him?? We’ll see…….C’MON ANDY make our darling Margot proud……Chick too! :)


Daniel Says:

The final will be 2 pm during day light. Don’t know the forecast weather but similar condition to Murray semis. Djoko payed his last 2 matches at night so maybe this favors Andy more.

Hope it is a well contested 3 set match.

Year is flying by, can’t believe that in 3 more motnhs months we will know RG and Wimbledon winner.


tennis bubble Says:

Good thing is that Andy is getting back into finals he wins or not that’s another thing first thing is you need to get the opportunity to be there on the last day of the tournament, unfortunately Nadal is right now not in this position


Nirmal Kumar Says:

@Daniel, conditions become a concern only when you play a night match and again follow up with a day match immediately.

Novak has a days rest and enough time to practice during day. It’s insignificant that he played night match in semis. If he had to turn up today itself for a day match, then it’s a concern. In this case, that’s not.


Giles Says:

Uh oh, windy day tomorrow in Miami!


Hippy Chick Says:

Andy needs to distance himself from Novak and be less friendly with him,he needs to have a bit more annymosity for his rival to try to turn this rivalry around,hes way too cosy with Novak and looks like hes almost content to play second fiddle lately….


calmdownplease Says:

Andy will have to overcome his demons to be competitive here.
Don’t buy it from the tiresome Nadal/Fed fans here that Novak is simply better in every sense blah blah.
Overall Andy can (just about) match Novak in most depts
This is a statistical fact with regards to FS return points won vs second return points won this year. And also quite tellingly return games won (where Muzz is now third behind two CC specialists in Nadal and Ferrer and Number 1 on HCs only for this year).
That is, If we are looking at their current strengths on return.
http://www.atpworldtour.com/Matchfacts/Matchfacts-List.aspx?c=6&s=0&y=2015
The one crucial difference in my view is second serve points won, where Novak is third and Andy 25th!
But, he has some tricks of his own to play when he doesn’t match Novak, ie with rhythm and variety of which he has exhibited, when confident in the past, to great effect.
Yes he’s 0-6, but and I must unfortunately say again that he was coming back from surgery for much of this.
Look at Rafa’s on-going problems with a less substantial pause in proceedings.
It’s not so unusual after all is it?.
Confidence is the issue now, not ability or fitness.
Fortunately, despite the court speed this IS a home court for Muzz. One where he feels very comfortable playing.
So it’s the best place possible for him to initiate a revival, bar CC at Wimbles (naturellement).
He has beaten Novak before in a Miami final. I simply cannot accept that he will implode again, particularly here, until I (hopefully don’t!) see it.
Win or lose, I optimistically predict this one will be a real fight over 3 sets and about 3 hours and if it is, he has a shot at the title.
The First set being the key (again)and he simply MUST have a good serving day of at least
60%.
But it will require a very calm delivery indeed, against an opponent that has been one of his few remaining Rubicons to cross giving him anything but calm.
Andy has had his problems but I don’t buy it that they are without end.
Now would be a good time to put it all out there and draw a line in the sand.


Muhammed Says:

If Novak shows with his “I don’t want to be here” low-energy face as against Dolgopolov he’s going to loose easy, Andy is on another level. I’ve seen Novak before with that face, one match that comes to mind is last time he lost against Haas in Miami. Haas played great that match and I’m not taking anything from him but Novak looked odd.
Only other way for Andy to win is to play to the extreme of his ability but those occurrences are rare for any sportsman, not just him. Sometimes everything clicks.
So if they both bring their average good game it’s Novak’s and they both know that. Their numbers don’t lie.


calmdownplease Says:

Almost agree b-u-t
Andy really doesn’t have to play his best match ever to beat Novak over 3 sets. He just has to play very, very well and not forget to `serve“ ;)


Nirmal Kumar Says:

Don’t buy it from the tiresome Nadal/Fed fans here that Novak is simply better in every sense

fantastic statement, considering their H2H and GS records.


mat4 Says:

Some notes:

1. To believe that Andy is more “friendly” toward Novak than the contrary could very well be just a delusion. I don’t need to remind how hard they resented defeats in their matches, there are many examples of it.

2. Game wise, they have similar weapons. The only real advantage, it seems, is stamina in longer matches. Novak has also a slight psychological advantage, but it isn’t that important.

3. The most important difference is that Novak is usually more aggressive, and has a more offensive plan. But, in fact, the matches are decided by their form when they play.

If Novak wins the first set, I guess he will win the match. But he also could be crushed easily the way Andy played his semi. Novak seems to have problems with his FH and his first serve, while Andy served very well. It could be crucial.

Then, the final is a new match, and with them, you never know.

I just hope that Novak will win, but I see Andy as the favourite, based on their semis.


mat4 Says:

About the return of serve:

In fact, stats from tennisabstract show that Novak is the best returner not only of second serves, but of first serves too on hard. It is not difficult to check, and I gave those numbers here, a few threads ago.


Giles Says:

Joker no like wind, very windy tomorrow!


madmax Says:

Peter Fleming believes that Andy Murray can beat Novak Djokovic to win the Miami Open, despite losing his last six matches against the world number one.

http://www1.skysports.com/watch/video/sports/tennis/9788237/fleming-murray-can-beat-djokovic

He says it rests on Andy’s second serve.

I think tomorrow, Novak is going to be more nervous than Murray, and I would not be surprised if he loses the first set, though it will be close.

He is though, the king of the comeback when it comes to being down a set.

I still give Novak the edge.


Margot Says:

@Giles
And Andrew likes wind, very, very much ;)
@OK
Thank you :)


brando Says:

Peter Fleming is commenting to a British telecast: what else is he going to do but prop up the home nationals chances? I’ll post later, but I think the best tactic- really only tactic- v Novak is controlled aggression. His 2 losses this year (karlovic, Federer), to Tsonga, Kei and Fed last year all saw the winner take it to him in a very controlled manner. It’s simple: if you stay on the baseline and play a match of attrition with Novak: you will lose. But if seek to attack him in a controlled manner you have a real shot. He’s not unbeatable. Even prime Federer got cracked. But the thing is you have to be smart and produce a intelligent performance where your attacking game is clicking. Andy is a counterpuncher though and really doesn’t have any true attacking shots. So it will be interesting to see what he does. I will comment more elaborately later on what I feel he needs to do in this matchup.


jane Says:

repeatedly coming into the net can work versus nole. but it also depends on the court. a quick court, like shanghai or dubai, is more amenable to that strategy. as brando pointed out, miami is slower. novak also likes rhythm, so if andy uses a similar approach as i read (didn’t see) he used versus berdych, i.e., mixing it up a lot, it could work. also, as margot said, if andy’s first serve is solid it will make a big difference; nole’s won most points on second serve returns so he really takes advantage there. if andy can get in a lot of firsts it’ll take a lot of pressure off him re: protecting his serve. by contrast, andy is first in points won on the first serve return, so he could put a lot of pressure on nole’s serve, which has been breaking down a little bit lately. he’s hit lots of doubles at the last 2 tournaments; it’s almost like he’s been going for more so he’s missing more. i am not sure why he’s doing this, because his second serve is a weapon really. he wins so many points off it due to placement and variety. i don’t see the need for speed. oh well. with all these things in mind, it just feels like the playing field (and their respective forms) is more level here, and so it could go either way.
may the best player on the day win, and i hope it’s a good match. if nole can get the iw-miami-double three peat (lol) that would be most excellent and i will be thrilled! we’ll see soon enough.
in the meantime, go popsi and sock! :)


calmdownplease Says:

`fantastic statement, considering their H2H and GS records….`

Typical, crass, clueless and lame `oh look who’s got 17 slams` NK feddite post
I didn’t say Novak wasn’t better but that doesn’t mean in (now pay attention) every sense, and Andy cannot beat Novak.
If it was only down to who had the most slams, been longest at Number 1, then Roger shouldn’t
EVER have lost to anyone
Right?
Wrong!
M’kay?


calmdownplease Says:

`repeatedly coming into the net can work versus nole..`

Andy won’t come to the net that often.
Novak might even come more often than Andy, although Andy is more of a natural
Part of Novak’s new game-plan right?


calmdownplease Says:

Andy will exercise much more variety this time as this is the court where he usually develops it.
Expect lots of angles and a near rotational change of rhythm.
He’ll go for the serve I think. And it is, it goes without saying` a pivotal aspect of whether Andy can win this just how many make it.
The Berdych match and just how authoritative Andy was would, under normal, circumstances make me think Andy would be the favourite but obviously not now.


andrea Says:

murray vs joker is as predictable as fed nadal on clay.


jane Says:

true cdp: nole is coming in more in the past year or two, although he seems to be using it very judiciously. for example, he didn’t come in much at all versus isner. instead, he made big john move.


calmdownplease Says:

` Andy is a counterpuncher though and really doesn’t have any true attacking shots..

Er, what?
I’m sorry but there is no shot in the book that Murray can’t execute with flair. Most of Andy’s matches are a controlled aggression switch from defense/offense kind of thing. At least to people actually watching him from 2010 onwards. It’s up to him to unleash his FH in that manner. And I agree that it will be key as no one in the world is taking Novak down purely from a BL grind.


calmdownplease Says:

`murray vs joker is as predictable as fed nadal on clay…`

Not that bad yet but there is big form for sure
And yet, more reason to hope too :)


calmdownplease Says:

`In fact, stats from tennisabstract show that Novak is the best returner not only of second serves, but of first serves too on hard`

No, Mat4
This isn’t accurate and yes it wasn’t hard to check;

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Matchfacts/Matchfacts-List.aspx?c=6&s=3&y=2015

It is/was surprising to see Novak at 17th however.
Still it didn’t stop him winning AO and IW


skeezer Says:

“Typical, crass, clueless and lame `oh look who’s got 17 slams` NK feddite post”.

Calmdownplease.


calmdownplease Says:

Oh skeezer shucks
You’re SO protective of your fellow fed Fans
Aren’t ya?
Don’t feel the same way about Andy fans it has to be said
Bar one or 2 that is.


KatH Says:

1) re. Brander – looking for an edge for Andy re. Novak – I think Andy’s determination may surpass Novak’s (Andy needs it most).
2) Novak v Isner – seems to be regarded as something extraordinarily great and an indication of what Novak could apply to Andy – I think we should not forget Andy’s most recent success against Isner i.e. Davis Cup.
3) re. Sienna – Apologie but did not understand what “next big thing in terms of premature & or premature meant.?
4) Even if Andy starts with his “B” game – he’ll win if he can move into “A” game – because Andy’s tennis is better than Nole’s (his problem is in the head).
5) Am sticking my neck out (laughter and derision allowed) AS LONG AS ANDY WINS.
here’s HOPING.
(tO Margo 3 WHISKIES MIGHT DO IT – WHAT dO YOU THINK?)


mat4 Says:

@CDP:

Sorry, but my facts are right. But I watched for the last 52 weeks, you checked for 2015. In the meantime, in 2015, Novak played:

1. Karlovic once,
2. Federer twice,
3. Isner twice,
4. Raonic,
5. Gille Muller.

Murray played once Isner and once Muller.

I also check he avg and median opponent of a player, and the stats vsAce, which is very important too, it speaks about the quality of the server. So, please don’t tell me that it is simple, or that I didn’t check my facts. Novak is the best returner of not only second serves, but also of first serves.


mat4 Says:

@jane:

You didn’t watch Novak against Isner. He went to the net whenever he could. He missed a bit, won some points, but he did it regularly.

He also did it often against Ferrer, with mixt success.


mat4 Says:

@CDP:

Please don’t tell me, in the future, that I don’t check the facts, especially when you give a link. It would be a lack or respect from my part, on one side, and very stupid, on the other.


jane Says:

mat4, i check stats and it said he went forward only 11 or 12 times if i recall correctly? that doesn’t seem like much to me, but i guess it’s not easy to come forward on that big serve..


jane Says:

*checked


jane Says:

i didn’t realize andy has gone gluten free.

“The tennis player is generally tee-total, and is reported to follow a gluten-free, high-protein diet to maintain his weight and keep himself in peak condition.”
(from guardian article on the wedding)


mat4 Says:

@jane:

He also missed a coupled of BH slice. His intention to go to the net was clear, and one of his pattern was to slice low on Isner’s BH and rush to the net. But, of course, when most of the time you just touch the ball when returning or, when serving, you finish the point easily, you don’t have to go that often.

But he went about 20 times to the net against Ferrer, with mixed results there too. His volleying is OK, his timing and his transition game is not good enough.


jane Says:

thanks for clarifying mat4.


chris ford1 Says:

Jane – If I was almost as good as Djokovic and not on a gluten free diet, I might give it a whirl as a matter of common sense. Try it out.

CDP – Over the years, Djokovic has won the reputation as the best serve returner in the game. Some call him the best in the Open Era. Yes, there is not a huge gap between him and many other stars like Andy in this aspect, but still a significant one. And some stats can mislead. If you look at the stats, you also have to adjust for the fact Djoker almost always goes deep in a tournament and statistically “sees” more difficult serves than say a player ranked 18th, who is out at or before the 4th round more often than not.


mat4 Says:

@CF 1:

That’s what I wrote recently, and the stats at TA just show it. That’s why I gave the median and avg opponent, and why I mentioned now the vsAce stat.

The differences, indeed, are not big, and some stats are sometimes misleading. E.g. Novak is only the 5th player (today) by the number of BP earn by set, or by match, but he is the first by the number of return games won. So, you have to analyse both of those stats, to have a holistic approach.

More than often, the differences are quite small. An analysis of point won from deuce could be more telling, but we lack the data.


mat4 Says:

@jane:

If you read French, you have here a lot of interesting posts

lesasdutennis.com

Wilfried has recently wrote some very interesting stats, too, for RG. I just hope he is right about it.


jane Says:

thanks mat4, i’ll check it out. my son can always help with some of the translation if need be. talk to you later, maybe tomorrow, although might not be here for the match.


calmdownplease Says:

`It would be a lack or respect from my part, on one side, and very stupid, on the other..`

I have never, EVER been `very stupid`.
And it would be in your best interests not to suggest otherwise.
As for the data, it is what it is for this year (which is germane to the task at hand).
Andy is a great returner.
If Novak is better (and he might well be) there is very little in it indeed, and might just be down to mentality, and the fact that one player has been on quite a few winning streaks more than the other till now.
I’m not interested in the past vis a vis this match, more what’s coming up in relation to
form.
Let’s face it, without their return games either player is nothing.


calmdownplease Says:

`If you look at the stats, you also have to adjust for the fact Djoker almost always goes deep in a tournament and statistically “sees” more difficult serves than say a player ranked 18th, who is out at or before the 4th round more often than not.`

Well that’s rubbish.
People like Isner and Karlovic rarely make it to
the latter stages of any tournaments.


calmdownplease Says:

`Novak is the best returner of not only second serves, but also of first serves…`

Regardless of those players Novak is 17th as of now.
Hello!
The quality of players serve doesn’t simply make a shortfall like that up to Numero uno, except in your opinion.
Yes they ace more, but not that much more.


chris ford1 Says:

CDP has glommed onto a single statistic and will go with that over everything.
The idea that Djokovic faces more challenging servers is irrelevant. As is the fact that service return is split into quality of defensive and offensive returns.
Some players are just not possessing the tools to do offensive service returning. So they do block returns, pure defense, which shows up as a successful return, even if it is a sitting duck for a putaway shot..
The ones that excelled at both are where the conversation is on the best ones.
Tennis historians, past top players, and coaches rate the ability of Connors, Agassi, Murray, and Djokovic as the best. Federer is not blown away by big servers and has an outstanding service return game – but he blocks mostly, same with Nadal.

Agassi was rated better than Connors because of his exceptional reflexes, speed, hand-eye coordination, and shotmaking against some of the best servers ever – as well as dictating matches against weak servers. With Djoker and Andy, both were rated right below Andre, circa 2010. Until the last few years, when Djokovic’s continual improvement led some like McEnroe to say Novak is looking like he will be noted after his career wraps as the best returner of serve the game has yet produced. Djokovic demurs, saying he thinks all the top players are great service returners because they have to be to win a lot.

Then there is Jo Tsonga commenting on the Big 4. Saying Fed and Rafa are very tough and can break him even when he is serving great, and Andy is better. And Novak is an extraterrestrial who can’t be all human. And adding at times maybe Andy leaves him thinking Muzz is also a space alien.


mat4 Says:

@CDP:

1. Sorry because of the misunderstanding: I meant very stupid from my part, too. It is stupid to argue without reading the arguments of the other, something I wouldn’t like to do. And it would also mean a lack of respect for a poster whose post I am answering.

You implied that I didn’t check your data, of course I did, then compared it with the data available at tennisabstract. You just missed the big picture, something CF 1 pointed at.

2. The rest of the argumentation is without much sense. Nobody argued that the differences are not very big. The margins are, anyway, very slim at the top.


Michael Says:

Jane@1.41 am,

Just to clarify, Novak took full advantage of Isner’s second serve where he managed to win more than 80 percent of the points. The match statistics tells this story.


Required Says:

Candy Murray is just playing for formality. Should just handle walkover and trophy to Djokovic and play an exhibition match.

Top story: Alexander Zverev: Winning The ATP Finals, Beating Federer Then Djokovic, It's Astonishing!
Most Recent story: Comparing Zverev With The Big 4 At The Same Age (Rafa Rules!)