Novak Djokovic Leads My List Of French Open Favorites
by Sean Randall | May 20th, 2015, 1:02 pm
  • 97 Comments

I was going to make this a comment on the other thread, but I’ll give it its own home. So here are my pre-draw French Open favorites (draw comes out Friday morning).

1. Novak Djokovic
The clear choice. He’s won everything under the sun lately (just never the French!). Dominated the right guys. Seems to be healthy. Is he better than he was in 2011? No. But he doesn’t have to be. He just has to be better than everyone else, and right now he is.

2. Rafael Nadal
66-1 is 66-1. And like I said before, Robin Soderling isn’t walking out on Chatrier anytime soon. So no place better, more friendlier for Rafa to bust out of his slump than Roland Garros. And last year he didn’t look great either coming into the French Open, and what happened? He won the title losing just two sets! He just needs to get that confidence back and some nice weather would also be a plus.

3. Andy Murray
I know he’s 10-0 on clay, but what I like about Murray is he doesn’t have any bad losses per se in Paris – Nadal, Ferrer, Berdych, Almagro of late. He’s also made the semifinals there twice, losing both times in 2011 and 2014 to Rafa. So I don’t think with the way he’s playing he’ll let down and allow himself to get picked off early. I also liked that he withdrew from Rome to give himself more time to prepare.

4. Roger Federer
Speaking of getting picked off early, this could happen to Roger. He’s 33, clay is not his best surface these days (never was), and I just think he’s now very prone to an early upset. Remember he lost to JW Tsonga in 2013 then was stunned last year by Ernests Gulbis (where’s he been?). And the trend for Roger has been down in Paris F->SF->QF->R16->???. This year, though, he has been playing pretty well so I don’t see another Gulbi-type repeat.

5. Tomas Berdych
Mr. Consistent has been just that this year. But even though he beat Nadal in Australia, I’m just not convinced he can repeat the effort in another big quarterfinal or semi in two weeks. He’s still a solid week two pick – been to the semis in Paris before – and if a draw opens up he’s a guy who can take advantage.

6. Kei Nishikori
Can he physically hold up in best-of-5 on clay? Especially if the conditions get heavy? After a strong 2014 he’s had a solid season so far with really only respectable losses and some very good wins. And I expect a second week two effort. To me, he’s shown he’s for real.

7. Stan Wawrinka
I’ll give him a nod only because of his Rome win over Nadal. Otherwise, he just hasn’t had a great go of it recently. But he’s got the game and talent to make a fifth week-two run and erase last year’s disappointing opening round exit.

8. David Ferrer
Isn’t quite what he was, but you just can’t expect him to fade quietly.

Other guys who could do well:
Gael Monfils – Always does well in Paris and he’s also playing well.
Grigor Dimitrov – Flamed out to Karlovic in first round last year, should improve that result next week. But has he hit the ceiling?
John Isner – The guy you just don’t want to play.
David Goffin – Quietly playing well, can he rekindle the magic he showed in Paris a few years ago?
Fabio Fognini – Might show up and play well, might not.
Milos Raonic – Can he be 100% so soon after foot surgery? Sounds doubtful.
Frenchmen – Gasquet/Simon/Tsonga, will be on the big courts and will have the support from crowd, but rarely do they live up to the hopes.

And the youngsters like Borna Coric, Thanasi Kokkinakis and especially Nick Kyrgios should be fun to watch.


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97 Comments for Novak Djokovic Leads My List Of French Open Favorites

the DA Says:

Oh my. *checks for unicorns*


Margot Says:

@the DA
Just saw one…;)
A sighting at RG of bloke from CM.
#secretweapon……..;)
Must say he looks very fit, in the old fashioned meaning of the word……


elina Says:

… and pretty much everyone else’s list (except for Roger’s).


chris ford1 Says:

Around 2008, I had a discussion with a friend about how Fed would likely never beat Rafa on clay again, and certainly at RG. So who would? I said that the two next best guys were Murray and Djokovic and while Nole looked to have some good clay skills and may beat Nadal on slower clay here and there – it was Murray that seemed perfect for clay. Andy had all the tools.
And for 7 years, Andy was a mystery. Why did he suck on clay so many years, and underperform? Lendl, a clay Sensei, couldn’t get him righted up..But now that is over.
I believe Nole is the favorite, but I think Murray is Nole’s greatest threat at RG.


Humble Rafa Says:

Mr. Obvious,

Everyone knows that, including my head.


Margot Says:

@CF!
Dominic Inglot, a British doubles player, sorry if you know that, was commentating at RG a couple of years ago. Said Andy didn’t move as well on clay as the very top players, in he fact was coming onto the ball too quickly therefore not allowing himself enough time to hit the ball.
Dom gave Rafa and Foggy as examples of how to do it.
I also think Andy’s back problems have inhibited him for at least 3 years now.


RZ Says:

Pretty good list, though I would move Nishikori, Wawrinka, and Ferrer ahead of Berdych. I feel like Berydch is more likely to reach the semis than those other 3 due to his consistency, but less likely to reach the finals due to his tendency to fold in the latter stages of tournaments (whereas the others sometimes pull off upset wins to reach finals and even win once in a while)


elina Says:

The only difference between Sean’s list and most betting sites is Berdych at 5 here instead of 8. Otherwise exactly the same.

The oddsmakers have it just like RZ says.


the DA Says:

@Margot @CF1 – the last 7 years have been a mystery regarding Andy on clay, although there have been glimpses during MC & Rome 2011 as well as Rome & RG 2014. Actually, I remember after a SF match in MC 2009 Rafa was quoted as saying of all the top players Andy worried him most. Of course Novak fulfilled that role (and then some) by 2011 but Rafa saw something in that match. And as Margot indicated, his back problems were exacerbated on that surface.

Some players never master their weakest surface (Sampras, Becker, Wilander, Lendl), some mature late and solve the puzzle. Who would’ve predicted even 5 years ago that Sharapova would end up winning several clay titles and 2 slams?


jalep Says:

You mean Andrea Murray-Murrano? That Scottish- Spanish guy?

Thought he was a natural Clay courter, last I watched play.


RZ Says:

@elina – maybe I should become an oddsmaker! :-)


jalep Says:

@RZ. Agree with you about where Berdych should be.

Everything else Sean wrote sounds right, except I’m not certain Rafa shouldn’t be the #1 favorite with his record there. Will only believe it when I see it, if he is to lose like he did in 2009 or in the Final.

But Stan got a win over Rosol today and maybe he’s dealing better with personal drama recently. Those things can take lots of time, though.

Gulbis got a win over Dolgopolov today. Stepping in the right direction? I don’t know, but he is defending champ in Nice; and if he doesn’t do well in Paris, he will be back to qualifying for main draws …perhaps playing challengers? Can’t see him liking that much.


Travis Bickle Says:

Is Novak better than 2011?
Sean provides rather clear “No”, in a very “no doubt about it” way. I would compare it to the “no doubt about it” Rome final match!

However, a more detailed analysis compared to Sean’s simple “No” reveals that Novak’s level in 2015 is extremely similar to the 2011 level. I like Tennis X and will therefore try to contribute to quality discourse on this site by providing some relevant and interesting stats:

http://www.tennisplanet.me/blog/2015/05/djokovic-of-2011-and-2015-heading-into-roland-garros.html

It shows that almost everything is identical between Novak’s 2011 and 2015, except aces (more in 2015) and return games won (more in 2011).

We should add to this intangibles both ways, such as Rafa was tougher to beat in 2011 and Novak is playing percentages better in 2015 by his improved net game – also he is more mature on mental aspects…

Overall, I would say that Sean was correct this time – Novak’s 2011 level is better than 2015, only so slightly but better nevertheless.
It goes to show that sometimes a lucky guess is as good as a thorough analysis ;-)


skeezer Says:

Fed came in 2nd in both polls. Congrats to Manuel.

http://www.goal.com/en/news/15/germany/2015/05/20/11922872/neuer-beats-ronaldo-and-federer-to-global-sport-prize

Contributing quality discourse….


Travis Bickle Says:

Looks like Fed is always second fiddle these days – rated #2 as well! Although I thought that the real sports man and sports woman of the year had already been crowned in China last month?!? Whatever makes Federinas happy…

Nice attempt to contribute to quality discourse, skeezer! But slightly off topic, you have to admit.

In continuing with the “off-topic” theme, here is something Fed is solid #1 in: his runner up speeches!
It seems that Tennis X video posting crew failed to notice Fed’s classy speech when he was receiving his silver plate in Rome and could not resist saying to the tournament director “I sold out arena every time I played”. This is something unique to this dude and he is the clear #1 in this – he just lost the tournament he will likely never win and the first thing that comes to his mind is that he sold out every time…wtf!
I cannot fathom any other of the top 100 would say that. I am not saying it is bad or good, just simply unique to Roger Federer.


jane Says:

well i would love to see novak win it, but i still think rafa’s the fav until proven otherwise.


Eric Says:

I think it’s insane, Jane, to call Rafa the favorite over Djokovic this year. Every other year, yes, I’ve said the same as you–but R’s results on clay this season have been so unbelievably dreadful (by HIS standards, I hasten to emphasize) that it is easy to see him losing before the final and difficult to see him beating Djokovic. And he’s seeded outside the top 4, no?, which will give him a rough second week just when he most needs another match or two to round into form before facing the greatest dangers.


kjb Says:

@cf1

That’s cuz no other player in the top 100 sells out arenas.


jane Says:

eric, well, it’s roland garros, and as sean says, 66-1 is still 66-1. call me insane, sure. but last year if nishikori had not been injured rafa would’ve been in a similar situation – no euro-clay titles. but who won the FO?

the draw might be a factor though. so i think we could reassess then.


Eric Says:

FWIW, Roger has about three times as many top-ten wins over the last 1.5 seasons as Rafa. (Djokovic, of course, as even more.) I say this to emphasize how rocky a path Rafa, seeded seventh, will face at the FO: he is seeded to meet top-four players from the QFs on, whereas last year Djokovic was the only top-four player he faced.


Eric Says:

Yes, but Djokovic is having a much stronger season this year than last, while it’s just the reverse with Rafa. Still, point taken… insane is a bit far. :)


jane Says:

not that much stronger. novak lost in the QFs at the AO last year because of new coach and outrageous level of wawrinka’s play (he beat rafa too). but he won the IW-Miami double and rome last year too, and he lost only in the semis of monte carlo because of his wrist. it’s not that much better. better, yes, but last year was still a great start in general.

last year at this point, rafa had 3 top 10 wins; that’s it.
this year, he has 2.
again, not much different.

i’m still holding off until i see the draw, but until then rafa’s the fav to win it, with novak 2nd. if rafa gets a brutal draw, i may change my view then. nutbar that i am. ;)


Eric Says:

Well, year-on-year, Djokovic has done the same or better at every top-tier event so far, while Rafa has done worse at most of them. He’s entered six top-tier tournaments and his best result is one finals appearance, while Djokovic has entered five and won them all. So looking at results on the year, Djokovic is winning every big event he enters and Rafa is losing early. That’s my main point. I agree that the French Open is a unique case for Rafa, but if he can’t beat Djokovic, Stan, Wawrinka, … on clay, he’s not going to get to the final, let alone win. I just don’t see how the evidence justifies treating him as a favorite over Novak.

That all said, you’re right: the actual draw will be extremely important.


Purcell Says:

kjb: are you confusing TB with CF1? Their contributions are remarkably similar…….


Eric Says:

Erm, obviously I meant Andy, Wawrinka, or Stan, Murray. ;)

And it’s not even that he lost, but he was 0-6 in sets, right?


Eric Says:

And for the record, I hope Rafa wins it again, because his RG record is unbelievable and preposterous and beautiful and should last forever.


kjb Says:

@Purcell. haha, ya I meant TB.


chris ford1 Says:

Sean correctly points out that the Djoker of 2015 is winning, but not blowing them away like he did in 2011.
But that may be worrisome for Djokovics opponents all year.
Because in 2011, Djoker ran out of gas after the USO. He was actually on fumes by Cincinnati and Federer will be the 1st to say he outplayed the slap-happy upstart that was just slapping away like they do in juniors. After that, Djokovic said in an interview that he had to be smarter in scheduling and fitness prep for a string of tournaments – peak for the big events – stay in contention for the long haul all year. He was serious enough that he was asking vets how they did it. He was pestering Sampras, because Pete did it right, and finally had a sitdown lunch in LA to pick Pete’s brain on how he did it, and get Pete’s tips.
I don’t think anyone in his camp wanted to see what happened against Berdych in Monte Carlo Final, but there is a sense that he is holding back a bit. Like him kicking it into higher gear in the 3rd set in several matches and dominating. Or blowing by Andy in the 3rd and 4th sets at AO after losing the tiebreaker. And wants to keep some matches short..
Peak at the FO and Wimbledon. Either way if he wins 1 or both or neither – rest after. See how he feels about Montreal and Cincinnati. More likely to skip one, of course, if by some beating of the odds, he wins the FO and Wimbledon – and the USO will be between him and a Grand Slam title.


jalep Says:

Liked the link Travis Bickle posted. Really by the numbers, not much difference between Nole 2011 and 2015. Only in the ROS. aspect is 2011 better.

Part of it is a distortion in perception. Nole had never been on a streak like that prior to 2011. It was shocking to a lot of people how he dominated Rafa on clay, especially: except Federer interfered with the final I anticipated. That was the year, 2011, that I thought Nole would get his career slam, which would be v Rafa, a very special win, indeed.

Feels this year like one or the other or maybe both could possibly go out before they meet. Have to wait and see what their draws look like.

Btw, I hardly see any resemblance between CF1 and TB’s posts.


Wog Boy Says:

“Btw, I hardly see any resemblance between CF1 and TB’s posts.”

That was my thought too, maybe because both of them ruffle fedfans feathers and they are not used to it, to many Nole fans as of lately for their liking…and very witty and knowledgeable Nole fans too:)


jalep Says:

Hi Wog Boy ;)

That’s true about both ruffling Feffan’s feathers. But TB also has had a go or two at ruffling Rafa’s fans. CF1 never does that and his only dig at Federer is the “padded win” thing invoking repeatedly a weak era thing.

At any rate, enjoy both their contributions even if I do find weak era evangelism as tedious and annoying as the goat debates centered on GS count as the Holy Grail of tennis.

Everyone has the right to express their opinions, rihht?


Sirius Says:

Knowledgeable like what? Like a madrid semi destroying two players, one for a year and another for a bit more? Like stating that fed has never beaten rafa and nole at slams since 2007?


jalep Says:

Gosh I can’t type or spell today.


Wog Boy Says:

@Jalep,
Exactly:)

@Sirius,
Minor mistakes are allowed, no? You see, I was right, they ruffled your feathers too, and you are a fedfan.
Next time, please, can you point to us fedfas mistakes, would you? Or maybe they don’t make mistake, like Roger doesn’t himself?


Wog Boy Says:

jalep,

Is Contador still in the “pink” jersy, I missed last night Giro?


Wog Boy Says:

^^yes he is but just.


jalep Says:

I plead my constitutional rights within the 5th amendment, WB. The right to remain silent.

Ah well, I’ll tell you anything you ask ;)

Alberto Contador remains 3 seconds ahead of his awesomeness, Fabio Aru.

Loving this edition of Giro d’Italia. :D


Wog Boy Says:

Thanks Jalep,
I don’t know if have the same constitutional rights here, I have to check that one. I’ll try to catch up Giro tonight, of course with a glass of good old Irish whiskey, you can’t really enjoy Italian coast scenery without it:)


Tennis Vagabond Says:

Jane and Eric, you each had me convinced alternatively! Great arguments. But what strikes me is just how plausible Jane’s points are. Rafa is only a hair worse than last year. Novak is only a hair better. Rafa won RG last year. Even if you think Novak is favourite, Jane makes an excellent case for Rafa’s relevance.


django Says:

Rafa is the favorite….


Sirius Says:

Wog Boy,

if I see somebody’s giving a wrong info/stat I would not hesitate to correct that one no matter which fanbase he/she belongs to

Now, calling the madrid semi between rafa and novak the main reason of their underperforming for a year is not something you expect from a knowledgeable person. And it’s not a minor mistake. It’s a deliberate one only to belittle roger’s achievements during that period. That person continuously bring stuffs like weak era, padded titles, madrid exhaustion, etc. to take away federer’s credit. But you PROBABLY wouldn’t agree with me as that comes from a FRIENDLY poster.


Wog Boy Says:

@django,
Agree

@Sirius,

I wouldn’t agree with you because I believe it is legitimate right of posters to have their opinion, wrong or right it is their opinion. You can argue with them but you can’t take away their right to have an opinion…unless your name is Sean Randall.

I didn’t really get that “FRIENDLY” poster thing?


Wog Boy Says:

Sirius,
Do you really believe that Roger would beat Rafa that year if Rafa didn’t play over four hours grueling match with Nole night before? Let us be serious, Rafa could easily do WO next day and it would be as much justified as somebody else’s WO not long ago, but he came out to face the music, and it wasn’t pleasant music for Rafa’s ears, but he copped it like a man.


mat4 Says:

@jalep:

Are you a fan of Contador?


Sirius Says:

You probably didn’t see Cdp’s calling a certain poster African pr0stitute. Nobody called him/her out probably because he/she was a poster many were friendly to. Or because the person that was called african pr0stitute is not very popular here. Neither reason is good enough to not taking a stand against the act


Sirius Says:

Wog boy,

do you really believe that that match left nadal and djokovic crippled for a year?


Wog Boy Says:

^^ no, I don’t remember that, but we are talking here about CF1 and TB and I don’t recall them saying anything like that, maybe I missed it.


Wog Boy Says:

Well Sirius, Rafa ended up injured after that for whatever reason, as for Nole, I am his fan so probably won’t be quite objective regardless how hard I can try.


Michael Says:

For me, Novak is the strong favourite followed by Andy and Nishikori. Rafa is the dark horse, but his chances are not to be diminished lightly. He is a 9 time Champion at this venue and has always been the player to beat. But this year, he is looking very vulnerable even against lesser ranked players leave alone the top players and so his reputation of invincibility on Clay has become passé and players now are not that much intimidated when they face him on court as they know the formulae that they have to execute on court to beat him.

But there is always the possibility of a big surprise. Who would have fancied that Cilic would win last year’s US Open beating Berdych, Roger and Nishikori ? And that is the strength of the sport in general, the element of surprise which would incite our curiosity level and sustain our interest. The biggest enemy for any sport is certainity which would tear apart it.


Margot Says:

Kyrgios retired against Dom. Yet another injury.:(

But I see 4 x K has got a wild card at RG.:)


elina Says:

You guys!!! So excited for the draw tomorrow!!!

Here are my predictions.

Murphy in Novak’s half.
Nadal in Murphy’s quarter.
Special Kei in Novak’s quarter.
Stan in Berdych’s quarter.


skeezer Says:

10:15 post
Word.


jane Says:

what about fed’s quarter elina?


jane Says:

personally, i’d be surprised if murray, nadal, kei and novak are ALL on the same side, as you suggest. who does that leave for the other side? fed and…? i’m guessing it’ll be more like rome’s draw, maybe with a few alterations. not to say that draws are fixed or anything! :O just a guess…


jane Says:

wow, so nadal managed to get an ump banned from his matches?

“Carlos Bernardes, the last umpire to challenge Nadal, has been withdrawn from his matches and is unlikely to officiate him in Paris”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/tennis/frenchopen/11622372/French-Open-2015-Rafael-Nadal-makes-a-mockery-of-the-rule-book.html


rafita Says:

SADLY Rafael Nadal will win the french again.
Nadal just say to the french open:
“I will play as always, if you say im positive in doping, i will say that i had been playing the same for the last decade, so you will end up looking pretty bad, basically negate the championship for the last decade, the tournament reputation will be ruined for ever, i repeat, i will play as always, using the same drugs as always, if you think im bluffing, well, make the call and see what happen, you had been warned”
so there you go
nadal its tired of others tournaments busting him in doping, tired for the wimbledon ban, tired for the 6 months silent ban, tired for get busted in the australian open taking his energy pills, tired for not having won any tounament for the last year but in paris and argentina (the 2 more friendly doppers countries in the world, remember armstrong and maradonna)
nadal will play as always, the frenchs probably will look the other way as always with doppers and nadal will get his 10th RG, and will blackmail them the next year, and the next one, and the next after that, and forever.


WTF Says:

I dunno.. Djokovic has gone in as the favorite to win the French Open for the last what 5 years now? Rafa hasn’t been favorite since 2009 that I can recall, the year he lost. It seems the more titles he wins the less he is favored to win it, perversely.


mat4 Says:

@jane:

Novak and Rafa in the same quarter…


Giles Says:

Murray, Nadal and joker are on the same side


mat4 Says:

Berdych gets Nishikori and Tsonga.


mat4 Says:

Murray in Novak’s half. Ferrer in Murray’s quarter.

OK. Let’s see where I was wrong: in the same half, I got three of four: Djokovic, Murray, Nadal, was wrong about Nishikori, instead it’s Ferrer. Not a big difference.

And I thought that Rafa would land in Andy’s quarter, but he will land in Novak’s quarter. The intention is clear, here.


sienna Says:

50/50 shot and you are wrong with 2 out of 4.

chance calculus not your thing…..


Sidney Says:

Novak and Rafa in same quarter! Yes!

Add Andy in the top half, and Roger has a really good chance for #18. Wow!

Novak to win RG 2015 is my pick.


mat4 Says:

@Sienna:

Math is not your strong side, neither.

First, I was right about the semi.

Then, I was right to pick the players in the same half with 75%. There was 1/32 to get the QF right. I had 1/8 to figure as much as I did.


Sidney Says:

I want Novak and Rafa to play each other, hopefully it will happen!

Gunning for GS#9! Go Novak!


mat4 Says:

If anybody writes that the draws are not rigged, I’ll ask Sean and Tom to ban him from this blog…


Wog Boy Says:

Roger has a really tough draw.


danica Says:

Well, Rafa and Nole in the same quarter. Surprise, surprise! :)


mat4 Says:

Yes, indeed. For the fifth year in a row, he is not in the same side with Rafa. 1/32… But it’s nothing.


sienna Says:

so I would say draw gave are pretty equal quarters.
with djokers draw truly a joke he gets almost all qualifiers. incroyable does he need to be carried into quarters?
So after quarters not much you can say in a slam you first have to arrive in position. Weet cannot bothered by possible matchups.


mat4 Says:

@Danica:

I admit I was surprised… I thought they would have some decency at least not to make it so obvious.


danica Says:

The ticket sales and prices will be huge for this quarterfinals, everything else afterwards will not be so interesting and appealing.


Wog Boy Says:

mat4, did you mention something about corporate world we are living in on the other thread?


mat4 Says:

@WB:

Did I? Indeed, perhaps, who knows. I am an innocent bystander.


Sidney Says:

@WB 6:44am.
Agreed. :)

Novak and Rafa in top quarter.
Andy and Daveed in the other top quarter.

Roger has Stan in bottom quarter.
Kei and Tomas in the other bottom quarter.

A little heavier in the top half, in my opinion. Although, I don’t think the seedings will hold through to the quarters, except Novak v Rafa.

But the bigger the challenge, the greater the reward!

Go Novak!


danica Says:

I am sure neither Rafa nor Nole wanted to see each other in their respective quarters :)


the DA Says:

The draws are NOT rigged. Period.

BTW, happy birthday Nole – nice present. Also, Rafa’s birthday falls on the QF day. The tennis gods have a wicked sense of humor. In some ways I’m glad Nole-Rafa ended up together. I think if Nole is going to win RG he *has* to go through Rafa. It will remove any attempted asterisks forever.

As for Andy: yes, tough ass draw. But we’ve seen terrible draws open up before. There’s much truth to the truism of taking each match as they come, not looking ahead. The draw is a lopsided catastrophe but it’s potentially a beautiful catastrophe for tennis lovers.


sienna Says:

funny stuf on birthday.

But is it a done deal this quarter?
so many quallies are there that I think something fishy.


skeezer Says:

“think if Nole is going to win RG he *has* to go through Rafa. ”
Assuming Rafa gets that far.


mat4 Says:

@the DA:

So, I’ll ask Sean. Period.

For Novak, if he has to play against Rafa, it’s better in the QF than in the final.

But then, they are not in the QF yet, not to mention the final.


danica Says:

The DA,

I was just about to sing Happy Birthdays to Nole ;). And I too remembered that Rafa’s Birthday would probably fall on that 1/4 final match.

If they play, I am calling in sick that day at work :)


Giles Says:

Murphy will have a tuffie against Ferrer whom he’s never beaten on clay!!


the DA Says:

“Assuming Rafa gets that far”

True. Stranger things have happened, especially to legends on their preferred surface (i.e. Fed-Stakhs, Wimbledon). It would still be a huge shocker if he wasn’t able to make the QF. Huge. As Sharapova just said in her presser, Rafa deserves some respect here.

“I’ll ask Sean.”

Ask away. I watched Sharapova pick the top seeds out of a bowl *live* on Eurosport. She’s got skills but I seriously doubt her abilities to precisely grab 3 specific names from the jumble to satisfy the ITF or Fédération Française de Tennis? I don’t even know who she’s supposed to beholden to in this supposed fraud. C’est ridicule. But good luck to your guy. It’s now or never.

@danica – I’m going to be so busy with work during this RG and won’t be able to watch much for the first time in years. Probably for the best where Andy’s progress is concerned. But I’ll have to come up with something very creative to make sure I don’t miss the Nole-Rafa QF (*if* it happens).


Margot Says:

Lol hadn’t realised RG wanted Fed in the final, quite so much……..


jalep Says:

Not sure who to believe: DA or mat4.

Sheesh…lol Margot. .

Well gotta get to the office *sigh*

Go Thiem and Borna in their semi’s!

Forza d”italia. ..Vinci and Knapp!


Okiegal Says:

I’ve asked this before, being a novice and all….but how do you rig a draw????


elina Says:

Nadal, Novak and Andy in the same half as I predicted – a 25% chance of random occurrence.

Federer and Nadal on opposite sides five years running with a 3% chance of random occurrence?


elina Says:

Okiegal, very carefully.


mat4 Says:

@Okiegal:

I watched the draw the previous years. The trick is when the number has to be shown to the public. The public is at least at three meters from the person that show the numbers, and he does it quickly, moving the number all the time. It is a well known psychological trick.


elina Says:

Well Novak, Nadal and Murray all in the same half with Berdych and Stan in Roger’s half as I predicted yesterday.

Well done me!

And Roger avoiding Nadal’s half 5X in a row is a 3% chance in a random draw. It could happen.

(Okiegal, very carefully.)


mat4 Says:

Anyway, the stats ADD from a certain point. When you find irregularities time after time, and mathematically it doesn’t fit, you consider it PROVEN. It’s just like a crime: you don’t have to find the murder weapon, when you have the DNA.


mat4 Says:

Let’s put the initial hypothesis this way: let’s say that Roger has to have the easiest possible draw, avoiding Rafa, or both Rafa and Novak before the semi. It has happened 8 times in the last 9 years.

In France, Roger is, by far, the most popular player.


jalep Says:

Watching flashscore. ..just wanted to vent my joy.
Congrats to Thiem for passing the Isner test and reaching the Nice final!

mat4. To be fair to you, just to let you know…you guessed right about a nom de plume switch. Shhhh…

;)


Okiegal Says:

Still not understanding a rig…..I guess I’m too dense to get it……Is Sharapova in on the sinister plot? She was drawing the numbers out of the pot, wasn’t she?? Does anyone know of a draw that’s on you tube so we can see the those tricky maneuvers???

;) ;)….I’m gonna Google it, just for grins! Lol


jane Says:

jalep, so glad – on both counts! :D


elina Says:

“In France, Roger is, by far, the most popular player.”

Everywhere but Spain and Serbia.


Giles Says:

So what tourneys are there in Serbia Elina?

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