I Have Novak Djokovic As My Early Wimbledon Favorite, But I’m Not Crazy About It
by Sean Randall | June 23rd, 2015, 4:28 pm
  • 111 Comments

Someone please make a strong case for NOT picking Novak Djokovic to win Wimbledon. That’s what I’m asking because right now for the Wimbledon title in my mind it’s either him or Andy Murray. And it’s close call.

So here’s my list of Wimbledon favorites as I seem them right now pre-draw:

The contenders:
1a. Novak Djokovic
In Paris, he was the clear choice, but now he comes on to his worst surface licking his wounds from a heartbreaking loss to Stan Warwinka in the French Open final.

The same thing happened last year when Novak lost to Rafa but then still won Wimbledon. So factor? I don’t know.

And even with the extra week this year, Novak still decided not to play an lead-up grass event – the only top guy not to play – but I don’t think that will factor much. It could show that he was too downtrodden over his loss to get back on the court, maybe? Again, hard to say.

My apprehension with Djokovic is I just don’t think he’s at his best. I still believe in this, that much of his success this season is due to the fall off of Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray and Roger Federer and the continued lack of a real threat (Raonic, Berdych, Ferrer, Nishikori, etc), though maybe Stan Wawrinka is the guy. But Stan on grass? No.

So Novak becomes kind of a “default”.

That said…

1b. Andy Murray
Murray is finally playing some ball. He went into the French undefeated on the clay with a big win over a slumping Rafael Nadal, but to me his most impressive performance to me was in stretching Djokovic to five in that French semifinal.

Given he just won another Queen’s and he’s more accustomed to grass, I think he’s right there with Novak on the Wimbledon favorites list. My only pause with Andy is his poor record against the Big 3 the last 18 months. Otherwise, I’d make him my Wimbledon pick.

2. Roger Federer
Wimbledon is his best chance to win a Slam. That’s what we’ve been saying the last few years, and it’s accurate. Unfortunately for Federer, at 33 going on 34 in a few months, this may be his last chance to realistically win a Slam. This could be it. 2015 Wimbledon or stuck at 17 Slams forever. That’s the reality.

Since that 2012 win and 7th Wimbledon title, Roger’s only made the finals at one Slam, that was Wimbledon last year, and he didn’t have to play a Big 3 to get there.

If he can again avoid the top guys again, he can make a return, but otherwise I just don’t see him beating Djokovic or Murray, or maybe even a Nadal or Berdych.

The rest, because I really don’t have much faith in anyone else winning:
3. Milos Raonic
He hasn’t played much with that foot injury, but with his serve, the fact he made the semifinals last year, he’ll be a tough out. And I think he’ll be better than we saw in Queen’s, his first event in a month.

4. Tomas Berdych
The big Czech has been a consistent player all season, winning at least 2-3 matches in every event and even creating a few upsets. And he reached his lone Slam final at Wimbledon in 2010 when he upset both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic before losing to Nadal in the final.

Can he pull off another similar run? Absolutely! Can he win it in the end? I doubt it. But he’ll be a threat and someone no one wants to see in their quarter.

5. Rafael Nadal
I really don’t put a lot of stock in Nadal as a No. 4 pick, which puts him in the quarters once again thanks to his low seeding against potentially a Djokovic/Murray/Federer. He’s healthy, he’s saying the right things, heck, he even won a grass title, but words are just that, words. I need to see him finally beat some big names in big matches, something we haven’t seen from Rafa in over a year.

Rafa’s won one set in four matches vs Top 6 players since his 2014 French Open title. That’s a very serious problem.

6. Stan Wawrinka
Someone who has been beating the top names is Stan Wawrinka, who unlike Nadal’s poor recent results vs The top players, the Other Swiss checks in at 6-2 this year against the Top 10. The issue with Stan is he’s just not that adept on the grass.

But if the weather stays dry and warm and the balls kick up, he’ll win some matches. He’s got the confidence and the firepower even though he won’t have those hideous “lucky shorts”.

7. Kei Nishikori
Assuming his left calf is okay and no other injuries flare up, Kei’s too solid of a tennis player nowadays to leave off a list of favorites for any event. And even though grass isn’t his best surface, he just doesn’t seem to be losing to guys he shouldn’t be. So that should take him into the second week.

Other guys to watch:
Grigor Dimitrov – Is Wimbledon coach Roger Rasheed’s last event? It could be. Grigor’s also going to have some real ranking pressure having to defend his semifinal points from a year ago, and he stumbles into Wimbledon having dropped three of his last four.
John Isner/Ivo Karlovic – Two guys you just don’t want to see in your draw. Can create problems but usually don’t go far.
Richard Gasquet – Once beat Roddick at Wimbledon and once choked to Murray.
Nick Kyrgios – Dropping his coach right before Wimbledon is a Kyr-ious move, let’s see how he rebounds.
Kevin Anderson – Rarely beats the big names but does pose a threat with that serve.
Viktor Troicki – Working his way back to the Top 10, similar to Anderson in that he has trouble against the best.
Marin Cilic – Seems to show up at the Slams and does have a man named Goran as his coach!
Feliciano Lopez – Lefty has one of the best serves in the game, and twice made the Wimbledon quarters.
JW Tsonga – If healthy could make run, but a troubling ab injury leaves him in doubt. Too bad.

And like in Paris, I look forward to seeing the young guys like Jack Sock, Dominic Thiem, Borna Coric and Alex Zverev. Grass is a tricky surface so unless you have a big serve it can make for a tough adjustment especially for the lesser experienced guys.

Overall, I see Wimbledon as a 2-man tournament between friends Djokovic and Murray. Djokovic has dominated their rivalry (8 straight now?) but I just feel like Murray is inching closer and closer, and is arguably playing better tennis right now.

Djokovic, though, is No. 1, he’s earned it, he is the defending champion and that head-to-head over Murray and the Scot’s ineptitude of late against the Big 3 is awfully hard to ignore.

That said, if there’s one thing I’d like to see at Wimbledon it is Rafa getting back on track. We talk about Roger’s chances at winning another Slam, at 29 this could be Nadal’s final crack at winning another Wimbledon.

We’ll have the full draw Friday morning. Let’s see where Rafa lands!


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111 Comments for I Have Novak Djokovic As My Early Wimbledon Favorite, But I’m Not Crazy About It

Hippy Chick Says:

LOL Two years ago Sean said Rafa was doing so well because Novak wasnt at his best,now hes saying Novaks doing so well because Rafa and the rest arent doing so well,swings and roundabouts i guess,anyway Novak goes deep in all tournies and if he makes the final hes usually the favorite,whether or not he wins is another story,so the prediction sounds about right….


Thangs Says:

I was about to ask Sean why there is no article about Nole’s lucky run this year with no opposition.

Andy is the clear favourite despite his poor recent results against Nole. Problem is he is mental case

Nole is co-favourite


jalep Says:

Hippy Chick,

I’m home early and will get a link up for a Wimbledon Bracket challenge soon ;) all over it.


Hippy Chick Says:

Jalep well ill look for the link and fill out my bracket then,ill probably give posting a miss for a while though,as im not really enjoying it at the moment….


jalep Says:

Hippy Chick. try and ignore whatever it is that gets to you. Unless someone insults you personally over and over – that’s the part that should be moderated.

You don’t have to be defender of Rafa. Rafa’s record and career stands for itself. Best to just turn it off – flip the ignore switch.

Anyway, I’m going to try to salvage my old account on GTN. I made a new one for FO recently. I think TC Racket Bracket is pretty easy to do – had a bracket there for FO too.


sienna Says:

Lmao like Federer willnot be favorite playing Berdych.


chris ford1 Says:

Roger and Nole will be first looking on Wimbledon Draw Day to see what half the Muzzasaurus ends up in.
Aside from Andy, and maybe another “Miracle Comeback” by Rafa…I wouldn’t want to see Milos lined up in my Quarter. Or servebot Isner.

I predict Raonic will win Wimbledon someday soon, as he is more than a one-dimensional servebot – but I’d rather see a Roger-Nole final, a Rafa-Nole final, or a Federer vs. Murray one.
Fingers crossed none of the Big 4 loses before the QFs.


jane Says:

lots depends on the draw, imo.

i see more people are voting for stan than rafa or murray.
well, it is a “what have you done for me lately” sport. ;)


SG1 Says:

Have to go with Andy here. Outside Federer, he’s the best on the surface and his game is peaking at just the right time. And Stan potentially displacing him from “The Big Four” club may be all the motivation he needs to get his 2nd Wimbledon and 3rd major.


SG1 Says:

Stan’s return of serve will ultimately be the source of demise on grass. He would have to get an incredibly fortuitous draw to get to the final let alone win it. But, come US Open time, he’s as good a pick as anyone…unless the courts are playing faster than usual.


Daniel Says:

I think the extra week can help Djoko more, even with him not playing a tune up. ! more week to “hell” his wounds and focus on now. Maybe if it was 1 week earlier it would be too soon.

Agree with the predictions. Big question now is where will Murray land. Who ever gets him of Fed and Djoko gets a tough draw.

Also, rain will play a factor this years, it’s schedule to rain a few times and this can change things dramatically. If the semis and final’s the roof are close, advantage to Fed and Djoko over Murray. Murray needs outdoors. Even for a potential Djoko x Fed final roof can be the spoiler. Fed needs all luck if it’s for im to win. Draw Stan in his semis (not guarantee that he would be there) and rain on final;-) in this case, he has a 50-50 chance against either Djoko or Murray (who can kill each other over 5 sets, with will drain each other, start reducing first serve speed and percentage and than play a bunch of long rallies, even on grass).

Can put Berdy above Nadal just because he can’t win final matches. He may even beat Nadal in Wimbledon but to win the title almost impossible, he just doesn’t have it in him when the time comes.


jane Says:

“Who ever gets him of Fed and Djoko gets a tough draw.”

yes, and novak’s had andy on his side in 3 of the last 4 slams.

but stan could be a threat, and then there’s rafa and where he ends up too. like i said above, i am waiting until the draw comes out. when the french came out i kind of felt that unless someone was upset along the way, and the draw opened up, it’d be one step too far for novak to win it (having already gone through rafa and andy just to reach the final) i was right in that case. let’s see about wimbledon.


Okiegal Says:

@Sean Randall……I’m not crazy about it either….


jalep Says:

https://www.globaltennisnetwork.com/tennis-tournaments/bracket-challenges/bracket-challenge-page/homePage/753-elizabeth

This is the link to: Elizabeth’s Global Tennis Network Wimbledon bracket pool. This I do for Hippy Chick, myself and it’s open to any Tennis-xer’s interested in filling out an ATP Wimbledon bracket and joining. The more the merrier, of course.

Will make sure there is a WTA Wimbledon bracket too.


jalep Says:

Tennis Channel’s racket bracket now charges money to set up a pool! shocking.

Can still do an individual bracket for free.


jalep Says:

Hey jane -

Tennis Channel is showing Nole v Dimitrov 2014 Wimbledon match. Nice to remember how that story ended.

I agree with Sean’s picks but would put Andy as 1a and Nole 1b. Rafa 2a and Federer 2b. Thinking Berdych is typically a good guess for a semifinal spot.


jane Says:

thanks jalep! only i don’t get the tennis channel. but yeah, a very happy memory, especially because the final was, imo, of such high quality, both guys hitting a load of winners, keeping errors low, etc. mounting drama. very worthy win.


van orten Says:

hahaha even berdych..hahahha murray??? the recordd the last 10 matches vs murray speaks for itself .. go roger go roger !!!!!


Margot Says:

@jane
I’ve just voted and Fed has double number of votes of Andy and almost double Nole.
To quote van orten, “hahahha.”
@jalep
Would like to do your bracket but am away, so depends when the draw comes out.


Colin Says:

@Thangs
Andy is a mental case?
On the evidence of Queen;s, that’s exactly what he isn’t right now.


KatH Says:

Jane
The voting has changed – Roger is way ahead, Nole (2), Andy & Rafa pretty even at (3/4) and Stan is (5).
I expect Roger will soar even more during today (is not quite 8.00am UK yet).


KatH Says:

On the draw – the interest is who will get the difficult draw? Translated this means who will get Murray – the Fed? or Nole? One of them will be unlucky.

Looking at it from Murray’s point of view – no matter what, he will get a difficult draw because he will either be in Fed’s half or Nole’s.


Margot Says:

But KatH, whoever gets Andy will have a very difficult draw…..Just doing a wee bit of stirring…….;)


KatH Says:

Have you been reading Macbeth recently, Margot?


Michael Says:

In my opinion, it is pretty tough to pick the favourite ?

Who would have ever guessed that Stan would win Rolland Garros ? If anybody had counted him as the favourite, he/she would have been mocked. But that is a factual reality today and Stan has done himself proud by winning his second grand slam event and equaling his contemporary Andy in pile up of Slams. That is no mean feat and he has beaten Novak in 2 grand slam events and hurt him where it really counts.

That said, I feel Novak is pretty downcast after his morale shattering loss to Wawarinka. Nobody before that finals would have ventured to pick Wawarinka as the favourite. He was the under dog and yet he made Novak look pretty pedestrian on court totally outclassing him making the World bedazzled with what was happening on the court. A lot of credit goes to him as well as Novak who allowed himself to be intimidated with his passive play.

Now for Wimbledon, the favourites for me are Andy, Novak, Roger in that order and the dark horses would be Tsonga and Wawarinka. I think Rafa’s chances are pretty slim considering his past track record for the past few years at this venue.


KatH Says:

The Wimb. seedings are out – (1 thru 5):
Nole
Roger
Andy
Stan
Kei

RAFA is seeded No.10.


sienna Says:

Clan Murray is getting more and more confident. Maybe Longshanks himself should have hold a primo nocta after his marriage to mylady Sears. Or he probably did.

anywayz they must hope

he wouldnot have to face Federer (0 and 1) to put the mental midget back to bed.


Tennisfan Says:

Stan has proved twice now that predictions mean squat.


jalep Says:

Thanks for your reply, Margot. Hippy Chick suggested a pool. Click on the link and stop in to say hello, if you have time. Post a picture of Andy, ect…

cheers.


jalep Says:

jane

What’s also noticeable watching the Dimitrov from last summer: he has not been playing at all as well this year. Wonder what’s up with him.

And I see Genie lost her match at Eastbourne. At least she got one win there.


Kathy Says:

Colin Says:

@Thangs
Andy is a mental case?
On the evidence of Queen;s, that’s exactly what he isn’t right now.

I watched Rafa in Stuttgart and Murray at Queens and I really don’t think there is much difference in their level. The average seed for Nadal was 33 and for Murray 39. However I think, and this is just my opinion,that Rafa met more players who could play well on grass. They both met Troicki, Rafa won 7-6(3), 6-3, Murray won 6-3, 7-6(4). So little to choose between them.


CALMDOWNPLEASE Says:

I’ll be angry if Nadal, Novak & Muzz are on the same half again
It gives the hot streaker on the other side all of the benefits
And it won’t be Federer, even with the roof closed..
EVERY DAY!


Daniel Says:

Thought Dimitrov would pass Nadal for the #10 seeds as he has 720 puts from Wimbledon last year. Per the formula he should have gain seed #10. Weird!


CALMDOWNPLEASE Says:

`They both met Troicki, Rafa won 7-6(3), 6-3, Murray won 6-3, 7-6(4). So little to choose between them…`

Don’t buy that one at all.
Andy played better and better in Queens while Rafa was dumped out early.
Didn’t see Stuttgart but Rafa still has a problem keeping it together when it doenst go his way, I know this because Andy had this for a looong time.
It’s probably more confidence than level so I don’t completely disagree
But confidence is everything when it really counts


calmdownplease Says:

`he wouldnot have to face Federer (0 and 1) to put the mental midget back to bed..`

Your bad English notwithstanding, I personally look forward to the next time Fed and Andy play
Let’s see who gets put to bed THIS time, eh?


Daniel Says:

Also, Dimi won Queens last year so he should have 250 pts add as well. Only this is 970 puts while Nadal only got 190 puts from last year (Wimby 4th and first round Halle).

In 2013 Nadal lost Wimby first round and did not play Halle so he only gets 8 pts. His total points should be 190 + 8 + 3135 = 3333

Dimitrov should be 2600 + 720 + 250 + 34 = 3604

Would like someone to explain the formula now?! Seems they don’t follow it to the core. Although changing from #11 to #10 doesn’t change much but got intrigued by this decision.

Maybe the officials only use the formula if it’s going to impact th player, for example, moving from #5 to #4, or #9 to #8 and so on. Only reason I can think.


KatH Says:

@Kathy

I thought I was losing my mind – I saw your posting and couldn’t remember composing/sending…

Anyways, welcome – I’ll remember not to confuse myself again – and hope you don’t get blamed for some of my more obtuse postings.


Giles Says:

Hey Daniel. Always worried about Nadal aren’t you? Lol


KatH Says:

@ Daniel
NADAL-3135+430 (100% of 2014 WIMB: 180 + 2015 Stuttgart: 250) + 7.5 (75% of WIMB 2013: 10) = 3572

DIMITROV-2600+765 (100% of WMB 2014: 720+Queens 2015: 45)+187.5 (75% of Queens 2014: 250) = 3552.5

Saw this and hope I copied it right….


jane Says:

“What’s also noticeable watching the Dimitrov from last summer: he has not been playing at all as well this year. Wonder what’s up with him.”

jalep, i don’t know what’s up with him, but the other day he tweeted a picture of himself hanging upside down in the tube. maybe too much goofing around? lol. seriously, though. kind of a letdown to say the least. maybe he’ll surprise at wimbledon again? sometimes i wonder if he’s “driven” enough.

margot, katH, thanks for the updates on the poll; you’re right. i checked and fed is way out in front in the voting now. next novak, then andy, and then rafa and stan.

me? i am waiting for the draw. then we’ll see.

oh, and i get your stirring margot, but i think the idea is that andy is a bigger threat on grass than stan, and he has to land on someone’s half – so that’s why the talk is more about on whose half he’ll land.

calmdownplease – me too! i hope we don’t get the same draw as at the french.


sienna Says:

the mental midget fading in final set is slowly becomming trademark for Murphymaniac. 0 and 1 will still carry through for the mental weakling among current slamwinners.


sienna Says:

or more regular approach to such simple dillema would be to acknowledge Federer had with the wawrinka draw the most difficult draw of top 4 ranked players.
the few extremists on this site art
e so full of hatred that a simple and correct way to tackle this mind blowing issue.
Who won the French open with marginal or room to spare.


sienna Says:

wawa won with margin of course… to show fed draw was indeed most difficult.


Daniel Says:

Kath,

Thanks but that is odd, Stuttgart and Queens this year already count in their ranking points. I thought was the total of last year grass tournaments and not “last” grass tournaments.

“…Monday before the start of the tournament) + Total grasscourt points accumulated by a player in the preceding year + 75% of grasscourt points in the grasscourt event where a player has achieved his best result in 2012 (i.e., the year before the previous one).”

So the total grssscourt accumulated by a player in the preceding year correspond to last 52 weeks.


Daniel Says:

Giles,

I was doing the math for all players to see if there would be any change in seedings and the only one that could happen was Dimitrov and Nadal due to Dimitrov excellent grass season last year, hence the point of doubt was ref their position. It has nothing to do with Nadal per se.

I am not worried about him anymore, clay season is over.


jalep Says:

jane – I’m on a thrs, fri, sat, 7pm-7am schedule in a psychia6ric unit (not a patient; a RN, just to clear that up) anyway hardly able to follow tennis on Fridays and Saturdays as I’m sleeping.

But I generally am coherent and awake enough by Monday to Follow tennis through Thursday mornings and get a few bike rides in. Of course Tour de France is starting soon – that will complicate my life combined with following Wimbledon as usual.

A word about Dimitrov. I think he’s probably going through a slacker phase. Why not. He’s certainly got quite a life as is. He has been practicing at Hurlingham Tennis Club, (or playing playing exho’s for members there) Won a match v Coric yesterday, was supposed to play Stan today but Stan cancelled and is scheduled to play Gasquet instead.

But it all makes me think more about the curious case of Stan the Man. You look at his career and he won exactly this up to age 29: Umag, Casablanca, Orieas on clay, plus Chennai (hc) x2. Then he starts being a GS champ and win Monte Carlo.

Point is: there is time for these guys like Dimitrov to grow up and start winning big in their late thirties.

Imo Rafa is being underrated for Wimbledon. He’s had a bad year by his standards and people are writing him off. This is exactly the time he strikes, I say. He’s my darkhorse for Wimbledon. Andy Murray is still my pick to win though.


jalep Says:

Opps, I meant late twenties not thirties!

Maybe in another decade they will be hitting a stride in their late thirties?!


calmdownplease Says:

`wawa won with margin of course… to show fed draw was indeed most difficult…`

He won with a margin airhead because he zoomed in from the easy half with a lame fed capitulating with ease as his only `obstacle`.
Which probably wasn’t what was INTENDED of course, never mind eh?

lol


sienna Says:

I would go further Federer had djokovic draw then he would have playing final against wawa.
and probably would have aan bigger chance because weather was so good.

this game the Nadaltards and hatemongrols are playing over the years is so freaking easy. Im loving it.


Margot Says:

Lol CDP it’s just top troll trilling. Why are you even bothering to reply?
@jalep and jane
I’ve heard Dimi has changed his racquet which may be something to do with his lack of progress. However, could it be Racheed? I used to think it was down to Monfils when he was coaching him, but perhaps not? Last year Racheed was blagging Dimi up no end, not a good idea IMHO.
@jalep
Will certainly say hello!


jalep Says:

That would be lovely. Margot…

as it is, I’m pretty darn jealous of you getting to watch Dolgo v Rafa at Queens and now I hear your going to Wimbledon for the round of 16.

You must get pictures!

Btw, Dog won his Nottingham match v Dominic Thiem, I see. GO DOG!


Okiegal Says:

The Boodles has a live stream. It is very clear and steady. Excited about this, even if it is just an exhibition…..If someone has already posted this info….my bad for echoing old news!!


Tennis Vagabond Says:

You have to have Novak on top. Again, everything Murray has going for him, Novak has better.
Novak has won something like 8 in a row, with several blowouts. That’s a huge win streak and right away makes him favourite in a match.
Then, Novak is the defending champ. For those who say grass is Novak’s worst surface, he was good enough on it to be defending champ.
Finally, Novak is more consistent at making his way through the draw as expected.
Fed and Murray fans can argue over second favourite. I would say Murray, given his 2015 record. I’d love to see this match though.

Outside those three, Wawrinka, Raonic and Berdych are the only ones I can see having a chance. Dmitrov is not suddenly going to turn his year around. Kei and Marin have disappointed since USO. I don’t believe Rafa has a realistic chance either.


elina Says:

With Andy “randomly” placed in Novak’s half and many players from Roger’s “era” in his quarter, I put Roger as the favourite for his 18th.

Put two or more of Rosol, Isner, Karlovic and Kyrgios in Rafa’s first four rounds just for insurance.

If the organizers can find a way to rig rain to close the roof, they would do that too.


jalep Says:

Okiegal

Have had Boodles. on all morning. Looks like quite the Club, no?

Almagro and Rosol warming up now.

Also been catch up on wta in Eastbourne. Delayed coverage on Tennis Channel. Quart finals are all set for tomorrow:
Wozniacki v Petkovic
Aga v Pironkova
Stephens v Gavrilova.
Bencic v Konta. (GBR) (had to look Konta up) Bencic has been very good on grass lately – she is Henin’s young Swiss protégé .


Okiegal Says:

@jalep

I was surprised how good the stream was at the Boodles web site. I wish all of the tournaments would provide a free live stream for people who are afraid to fly!! :( Lol!


sienna Says:

no competition whatsoever. Tweeners, standup com, sun bading, drinking some champine…. This has nothing to do with prepairing for slam. Just grabbing money nothing more.
it is better to train at wimbly atm you can atleast work the first second serve….


sienna Says:

champine is how they pronounce champagne. otherwise I get stick for my english.


jalep Says:

Okiegal. Hippy Chick is doing the bracket game with me on Global Tennis Network. I posted a link last night on this thread up above. If you click on it, come say hello. And maybe on Friday you can fill out an ATP Wimbledon bracket, picking, of course, Rafa. ;) It’s all for free and it’s fun.


Gee Says:

Wimbledon is for quick runners with marathon winners.
Novak is barely playing on grass, let alone in 5 set wins, but he gets through because he’s the best.
You would see him demolishing the old klutz roddick or Hewitt, since roddhewitt had a low quality Wimbledon match with each other too.
Fred barely served through a ball bashing, sweaty clash in the 2004 final with laughingstock piggy. He also counted his lucky stars in the servebot ’09 final, despite his admission on bbc1 that he didn’t doubt he was winning.
Murray is quality and a friendly guy, do I’d rather see him in the final with novak.


jalep Says:

Indeed Okiegal, it would be nice if all tournaments ha free,clear,livestreams.like this one.

Then look at all those open bottles of Veuve Clicquot sitting around making me thirsty.

Rosol should win this but Nico has a break 2nd set. Also Nico has great hair.


KatH Says:

@ Daniel

Not a big stats. person (unless its financial data- wow!) but it seems to offer a reasonable explanation – Yes/ No?

PS: There is a new TX commentary called Kathy – thinking I should change my name to Jock-KatH…?

Just looked at a site called The Roar (Aussie) and they have Nole to win and Fed in the final. They say Stan will be a semi-finalist and while they mention Andy Murray’s potential, they decline to place him.

I had a flash of light in my head – while I don’t know who will win Wimbledon – I know it won’t be Nole (nothing against Nole) – it just struck me – think Hamlet – no other explanation.


Temple Says:

Did you see Roger sweating profusely versus Seppi, only at the 2ND set of the match? Much as we’d like him to do a miracle on the Hudson, I don’t think his chances are better than a 1/8.


jalep Says:

http://www.theboodles.com/blog/order-of-play-day-3.html

Boodles order of play for Thursday.

Nole is on the schedule!


Okiegal Says:

What’s the big deal about a sweating Roger? Isn’t that a normal thing to happen when you get over heated?? Curious as to why sweating is an issue when a person is over exerting himself in the hot sun?? Some of the comments on this forum never cease to amaze me. Temple, fill me in!!


Humble Rafa Says:

After seeing the headline, I know who won’t be the winner at the Tournament of the Cows.


Humble Rafa Says:

at 29 this could be Nadal’s final crack at winning another Wimbledon.

29? Who? I asked my body and it said 55.


jane Says:

jalep, of course i knew you weren’t a patient; if you were, i’d say “you’re doing a pretty great ‘sane act’ around here”! :D

i totally agree about grigor; he has time to get into the winning circle at big events. it’s probably just that he’s been hyped for so long, we expect more, sooner.

hope to catch some of novak tmrw if possible.

and precisely re: rafa. he won in a pretty good field at stutgard and he’s now entering boodles, after losing a tough one at queens, which suggests he is taking this event very seriously. and of course from now until end of season he has virtually nothing to defend so he can really make hay. i won’t be surprised if that happens. but we shall see soon enough. as i keep saying, draws are of the essence just now.


jane Says:

margot, maybe it’s racquet, rasheed, and goofing around, all?


Humble Rafa Says:

I humbly feel that cows and sheep should not be harmed so the “gentlemen” can have fun hitting balls on grass. That’s just not right.


Colin Says:

I think we can ignore the voting in the poll. When people vote they are not forecasting, they are merely saying who they WANT to win.

I make an exception in the case of polls in Australia. As Wog Boy must know, Aussies are gambling-mad to an extent almost equal to the Chinese, so they are less interested in the sport than in the chance of winning a few bucks. Instead of looking at a player’s ability, they look at the odds.


Wog Boy Says:

Colin,
Do you know that you are running a risk of being called racist by certain poster just for stating the facts about certain nations habits and preferences, even if no harm was intended, happened to me. Be careful Colin.
BTW, you are right in both cases, public bus that takes you to “The Star” which is the name for Sydney casino is “888″, that is Chinese lucky number, the reason is simple, 90% of the guests in casino are Asians, mainly Chinese. It is true about the Aussies too, but they mainly bet on horses and dogs in the pubs clubs and TABs, (betting places), poker machines are everywhere too. Wogs are pretty close once they get hold of it (betting).
I don’t do it but I am no saint, just was (un)lucky to experience what gambling can do to people and their lives with some of my relatives, besides, I am terrible loser.
Last but not least, Aussies inherited gambling addiction from their British ancestors, I was told English are placing a bet on anything you can possibly bet, am I right?


Margot Says:

@jalep
I signed in but wasn’t able to “talk” to you. Perhaps you can’t till the draw is made. Really enjoy doing them so I’ll see if I can highjack a lap top over the weekend!


sieñña Says:

I’d like to apologize to you all. I dont really think Federer will win another slam. maybe he gets close like semi or final, but winning is aan different ball game. He lacks power at the moment. His speed, stamina, mindset is there all things they have worked on are top. So he will have a great shot. I feel his power is lacking and there will be matches wherelack of strenght is just to big.
Tsonga or Cilic blow out is big possibility.

But never mind Federer keeps on trucking and creating history on tour….


sieñña Says:

Wogboy racism is running through tour vains. No need to project it on others.
be very carefull haters like you must be stopped.


danica Says:

Slight advantage for Andy over Nole.
It doesn’t matter that “everything Murray has going for him, Novak has better” – to quote Tennis Vagabond. What matters is:
- Nole never won over Andy on grass. If I remember correctly, never even won a set off of him.
- Andy is playing with home crowd to support him and that can make all the difference.
- That 8 win streak of Novak is bound to be broken sooner or later. It just may be at Wimbledon.
- Andy IS the second best player this season and one that can match Nole shot for shot.

As for Nole still being downcast after his loss in Paris, I don’t believe in that. He is already over that and ready and hungry for more.


sieñña Says:

Federer will actually beat Djokovic/Murray/Nadal/Nishikori very easy
He would be able to playboy his own game which will be to good for these guys.

His trouble comes with the power players who can blow him of court.
How will fed deal with those guys?
Murray v Federer will be not a problem for Federer.


sieñña Says:

well playboy would be Kyrgios.
Federer is accused to be a lot according to the haters, but playboy is not one of the accusations… still time though


calmdownplease Says:

`With Andy “randomly” placed in Novak’s half and many players from Roger’s “era” in his quarter, I put Roger as the favourite for his 18th…`

Oh no, not that.
I keep on trying to fight these conspiratorial thoughts, but the odds of these draws are very unlikely.
And it probably won’t be Fed that benefits either, despite making the final last year I just don’t believe he’s got a another Wimbledon in him, nor does he need one for gawd sakes!
Anyway, shouldn’t they be `arranging` for a Fedal Quarter instead?
You know for `Auld Lang Syne`?
That seems much more likely.
Right now for me it’s Andy that has the momentum but on grass there is always a tricky match or 2 to navigate before the semis and I want to see how he handles that..
But Andy will be the new number 2 before or after the USO, it’s inevitable now, and with the shed load of points Fed has to defend up until then I think he might not even be top 4 by then.


jalep Says:

Margot – I think there might be an error or something wrong with how I set up the pool. There were a bunch of settings and was confused about what boxes to check. Will go back in and tweak it.

Hippy Chick left me a message though and I replied…so, I dunno. Will go look at it, thanks.


jalep Says:

jane

thanks, but I really don’t feel all that sane on many days ;)

Working helps with a perspective, I admit. It’s very interesting. My first time in the specialty. Was tired of driving all over hell and gone doing Home Health.


jalep Says:

“As for Nole still being downcast after his loss in Paris, I don’t believe in that. He is already over that and ready and hungry for more.”

Nice to hear that, Danica.


Daniel Says:

cdp,

Don’t agree that is inevitable that Andy will get #2 ranikong after US Open. He also is still defending Quater finals in Wimbledon and US Open and Fed is over 2000 pts from him.

Fed reaching a final in Cincy or even winning there wouldn’t surprised me and he can reach semis in Wimbleodn and US Open easily. So even of loses 1000-1500 pts it will still depending on Murray going to semis or finals.

Anything can happen, Mureay can even be #2 after Wimbledon if he wins and Fed loses before semis.

But say “it is inevitable” it’s too much specially considering that Federer plays great In the spam of Wimby-US Open.


calmdownplease Says:

Well, I think it is inevitable…
This time
A 250 here and a 250 there (everywhere a 250!!!!)
Will not end the slide
Even the 500 he just won was a 250 really
So many points to defend, so one false move and whoosh! he’s heading out of the top 4, never mind number 2.
But yes, we will still have to see…


sieñña Says:

cdp, on the dope again or is it old scole drinking?

you clearly are speaking about Nadal who has won just 2 250 events last 12 months.
fed on the other hand has won masters at wil. playing/toying with djokovic on fast hc. even in 2015 because Dubai is a fast HC.
Davis Cup he made sure after Stan had another hickup Swisteam managed to procede to finals. Sacrificing WTF and his own health to take deciding tie.

So Roger has dominatedafter his Wimbly loss last year the fast courts. And there we are at the start of the fast court season. Hemight not dominate all big hitters every match. But Murraywill not be able to lay his hands on him.

0 and 1!


sieñña Says:

I forget of course the Cilic wonderrun without that we were sitting on 18 already.


calmdownplease Says:

You hang onto to that `01` as if your life depended on it Sienna
(Which in some psychological way it just might :)
But this time, the Federator is going DOWN!


Giles Says:

And here’s me thinking Cilic is Sienna’s new boy friend!
Sienna knows about dope, argh, that coffee shop!!


sieñña Says:

giles to the rescue.
tagteamed by two nitwits. Is that it little sh..ters.


sieñña Says:

The Federator love it….

You can claim it but Im gonna use The Federator nick like there is no tomorrow.

thanks a…ol.


sieñña Says:

little giles obsessed with drugs policy in the Netherlands.
It so funny that problems with that is solely because we have Schengen in Europe. Without that our drugs related problems would decrease with 95%.
We only should regulate growth and distribution. then remaining 5% would also drop.

So glad that dope and drugs are solely Amsterdam problem… Lmao of course.


Bob Lewis Says:

Who is the most likely player to get on a red hot streak the way Ivanisevic or Krajicek did?


Jock-KatH Says:

Referring to Andy Murray as a possible Wimb. winner, DJOKOVITCH SAYS:

“Everything is possible, but I will make sure he doesn’t.”

WOW! SCARY!


Margot Says:

Lol JKH that kind of remark will merely FIRE ANDY UP!
Come on!


Jock-KatH Says:

Margot – Exactly, exactly!!!!

Saw a quick heading – Murray is in Federer’s half as is Jo Tsonga and Rafa – assuming more to come.


squirrel_0209 Says:

Murray is in Fed’s half. Federer must win this by beating both Murray and Djokovic! Repeat of 2012, i hope so! Go Fed!!!


squirrel_0209 Says:

Fed could face Berdych in quarter!


Shailesh Says:

Nadal has an easy draw till quarters from where on he will face quality opposition. He has a good chance to make the quarters this time. Novak on the other hand has some big hitters in his section. So what appears to be an easy draw for Novak can turn out to be pretty tricky.


Shailesh Says:

Murray’s draw is absolutely brutal, he has to potentially go through Nadal, Federer and Novak to win the title, not to mention Tsonga as well who can do wonders on grass (remember 2011 vs Fed). Tough break for Murray.


Jeez Says:

FULL DRAW

DJOKOVIC, Novak SRB [1] vs KOHLSCHREIBER, Philipp GER NIEMINEN, Jarkko FIN vs HEWITT, Lleyton AUS (WC)
HERBERT, Pierre-Hugues FRA (Q) vs CHUNG, Hyeon KOR
STRUFF, Jan-Lennard GER vs TOMIC, Bernard AUS [27]

MAYER, Leonardo ARG [24] vs KOKKINAKIS, Thanasi AUS TIPSAREVIC, Janko SRB vs GRANOLLERS, Marcel ESP
ILHAN, Marsel TUR vs JANOWICZ, Jerzy POL
POUILLE, Lucas FRA vs ANDERSON, Kevin RSA [14]

CILIC, Marin CRO [9] vs MORIYA, Hiroki JPN (Q) HAIDER-MAURER, Andreas AUT vs BERANKIS, Ricardas LTU
EBDEN, Matthew AUS (WC) vs ROLA, Blaz SLO
SOEDA, Go JPN vs ISNER, John USA [17]

CUEVAS, Pablo URU [28] vs KUDLA, Denis USA (WC) GABASHVILI, Teymuraz RUS vs ZVEREV, Alexander GER
SOUZA, Joao BRA vs GIRALDO, Santiago COL
BOLELLI, Simone ITA vs NISHIKORI, Kei JPN [5]

WAWRINKA, Stan SUI [4] vs SOUSA, Joao POR ESTRELLA BURGOS, Victor DOM vs BECKER, Benjamin GER
KLIZAN, Martin SVK vs VERDASCO, Fernando ESP
SELA, Dudi ISR vs THIEM, Dominic AUT [32]

ROBREDO, Tommy ESP [19] vs MILLMAN, John AUS (Q) YOUNG, Donald USA vs BAGHDATIS, Marcos CYP
BROADY, Liam GBR (WC) vs MATOSEVIC, Marinko AUS
ZEBALLOS, Horacio ARG (Q) vs GOFFIN, David BEL [16]

DIMITROV, Grigor BUL [11] vs DELBONIS, Federico ARG LACKO, Lukas SVK vs JOHNSON, Steve USA
DE SCHEPPER, Kenny FRA (Q) vs SMITH, John-Patrick AUS (Q)
SAVILLE, Luke AUS (Q) vs GASQUET, Richard FRA [21]

KYRGIOS, Nick AUS [26] vs SCHWARTZMAN, Diego ARG MONACO, Juan ARG vs MAYER, Florian GER
LAJOVIC, Dusan SRB vs HAAS, Tommy GER
GIMENO-TRAVER, Daniel ESP vs RAONIC, Milos CAN [7]

FERRER, David ESP [8] vs WARD, James GBR (WC) VESELY, Jiri CZE vs LORENZI, Paolo ITA
POSPISIL, Vasek CAN vs MILLOT, Vincent FRA (Q)
SMYCZEK, Tim USA vs FOGNINI, Fabio ITA [30],

TROICKI,Viktor SRB [22] vs NEDOVYESOV, Aleksandr KAZ (Q) STEPANEK, Radek CZE vs BEDENE, Aljaz GBR
BROWN, Dustin GER (Q) vs LU, Yen-Hsun TPE
BELLUCCI, Thomaz BRA vs NADAL, Rafael ESP [10]

TSONGA, Jo-Wilfried FRA [13] vs MULLER, Gilles LUX ISTOMIN, Denis UZB vs RAMOS-VINOLAS, Albert ESP
DOLGOPOLOV, Alexandr UKR vs EDMUND, Kyle GBR (WC)
YMER, Elias SWE (Q) vs KARLOVIC, Ivo CRO [23]

SEPPI, Andreas ITA [25] vs KLEIN, Brydan GBR (WC) STAKHOVSKY, Sergiy UKR vs CORIC, Borna CRO
HAASE, Robin NED vs FALLA, Alejandro COL (Q)
KUKUSHKIN, Mikhail KAZ vs MURRAY, Andy GBR [3]

BERDYCH, Tomas CZE [6] vs CHARDY, Jeremy FRA KRAJINOVIC, Filip SRB vs MAHUT, Nicolas FRA (WC)
GULBIS, Ernests LAT vs ROSOL, Lukas CZE
ANDUJAR, Pablo ESP vs GARCIA-LOPEZ, Guillermo ESP [29]

MONFILS, Gael FRA [18] vs CARRENO BUSTA, Pablo ESP MANNARINO, Adrian FRA vs BERRER, Michael GER (Q)
SUGITA, Yuichi JPN (Q) vs KAVCIC, Blaz SLO
ALMAGRO, Nicolas ESP vs SIMON, Gilles FRA [12]

LOPEZ, Feliciano ESP [15] vs DARCIS, Steve BEL
BASILASHVILI, Nikoloz GEO (Q) vs BAGNIS, Facundo ARG
PAIRE, Benoit FRA vs YOUZHNY, Mikhail RUS
BEMELMANS, Ruben BEL vs BAUTISTA AGUT, Roberto ESP [20]

SOCK, Jack USA [31] vs GROTH, Sam AUS
JAZIRI, Malek TUN vs DUCKWORTH, James AUS
QUERREY, Sam USA vs SIJSLING, Igor NED (Q)
DZUMHUR, Damir BIH vs FEDERER, Roger SUI [2]


jane Says:

i’d love the context for the quote or to know if he was laughing when he said it.


Tennis Vagabond Says:

Bob Lewis, good question. Would have to say Berdych or Wawrinka, though with Wawrinka its not quite unexpected. But they both have that potential to reach a level where they are unhittable. I think Berdych always has that puncher’s chance to make the finals at Wimbledon – from there, if he can hold it together, I wouldn’t bet.


django Says:

I would too Jane. Doesn’t sound like him.


Jock-KatH Says:

Jane
Do you mean Nole’s quote?
I’ll see if I can find the article again. My guess is it was tongue in cheek (he could well have been smiling but it wasn’t mentioned.).


Jock-KatH Says:

Jane
Looked – I thought it was SI but couldn’t find – if it shows up again I’ll note and send. You might even spot it yourself – it was published before the Wimb. draw.

Presume you’ve seen “Different Strokes” which is available on the Telegraph Sports pages – if you haven’t it is an excellent read.


Jock-KatH Says:

OK Jane I’ve found it.

Title is Novak Djokovic: Andy Murray could win Wimbledon but I will make sure he won’t.

http://www.itv.com/news/2015-06-25/novak-dokovic-andy-murray

By: ITV News Sport Correspondent Ian Payne.


jane Says:

thanks kat-h. still no context provided, i.e., what was the question, what was his expression. knowing novak it was tongue-in-cheek. he knows what a threat andy is; after all he also says “[murray] is a grand slam champion. Finals of Wimbledon, so he has beaten me in the big matches before and so I wouldn’t see myself as a clear favourite.”


Jock-KatH Says:

OK Jane – glad you could read it.


danica Says:

I can totally picture Nole saying that and laughing before going on more seriously.

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