Wimbledon Men’s Preview: Tough Draws All Around With Murray-Nadal, Federer-Berdych QFs
by Sean Randall | June 26th, 2015, 8:18 am
  • 134 Comments

This Wimbledon is going to be interesting. Before the draw there were two clear favorites: Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. But the drawmakers did them no favors today suddenly making the event a wide open affair.

Djokovic could face a bevy of big servers while Murray might have to navigate a brutal path through his Big 4 mates to win another Wimbledon.

First to the top where defending champion Djokovic opens against Phili Kohlschreiber in a first round cracker on Monday. Kohlschreiber is a very tough player, especially so on grass, and given this will be Djokovic’s first match on the surface, there’s just that hint of danger. I think the German will get a set but the Novak prevails. Djokovic could then meet former champion Lleyton Hewitt in the second round. The Australian might not have the game that took him to the top, but he’s still a heady player who often plays way above his ranking. Then it’s Bernard Tomic in the third, Kevin Anderson in the fourth with possibly either John Isner or Kei Nishikori in the quarters. It’s not the worst draw for Novak, but it’s not a nice one either.

In the second quarter, we find 2014 breakthrough semifinalists Grigor Dimitrov and Milos Raonic who are projected to meet in the fourth round. Before the two collide, they will have to get through tough third rounds. Dimitrov could face former Wimbledon semifinalist Richard Gasquet while Raonic might have Nick Kyrgios, a stunning quarterfinals from a yer ago. Really, none of those players inspire much confidence right now for various reasons, so I’ll go with the main man Stan Wawrinka who has the best draw of any of the top guys. Unless the Swiss has lapse, I think the French Open champions beats Raonic to get to the semi. Recall a year ago he was given Federer all sorts of fits before coming undone. I think he can do one better this year.

Now to the loaded bottom half. In the third quarter sits Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, JW Tsonga, David Ferrer, Viktor Troicki and Ivo Karlovic. Wow. Ferrer and Nadal could clash in the fourth round, Murray and Tsonga in the other. I like Ferrer’s draw out to that spot and I like Murray’s, also. Nadal, though, could have a tough one with big-serving Dustin Brown and further issues with Troicki in the third, but I think Rafa summons his best and gets to the Murray match a week from Wednesday. Since Murray already beat Rafa on clay, I have to think he’ll do it to the Spaniard on grass. But what a match that would be.

The final quarter is the home again of 7-time champion Roger Federer. I like his draw the first week – he should school young American Jack Sock – but trouble lies ahead with Feliciano Lopez in the fourth round and then Tomas Berdych likely in the quarters. The Czech does have Jeremy Chardy in his opener, then Nicolas Mahut followed by Lukas Rosol, so not a sure thing, but Tomas has been Mr. Consistent this year. That said, Berdych beating Federer? He did it a few years ago at Wimbledon, can he do it again? He certainly can. But right now I’ll go with Roger.

So my semifinals:
Djokovic d Wawrinka: Stan’s got a great draw but Novak gets revenge for Paris.
Murray d Federer: Murray is just the better player.

My final:
Murray d Djokovic: Murray finally ends skid against Djokovic to win his second Wimbledon title.

Reviewing the draw again, the end result could go any number of ways. I could really see any of the top guys getting picked off before the semifinals. Djokovic could lose to Kohlschreiber or Anderson. Wawrinka is not a solid pick on grass. Murray and Nadal could be on the wrong side of a hot Tsonga or Karlovic and Lopez or Berdych could very well knock out Roger.

And my gut tells me we’ll see at least one of the Big 4 fall before the quarters.

So with all the uncertainty and intrigue – at least in my mind – this should be a fun Wimbledon. Matches begin on Monday with Djokovic and Wawrinka in action.


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134 Comments for Wimbledon Men’s Preview: Tough Draws All Around With Murray-Nadal, Federer-Berdych QFs

Jeez Says:

FULL DRAW

DJOKOVIC, Novak SRB [1] vs KOHLSCHREIBER, Philipp GER
NIEMINEN, Jarkko FIN vs HEWITT, Lleyton AUS (WC)
HERBERT, Pierre-Hugues FRA (Q) vs CHUNG, Hyeon KOR
STRUFF, Jan-Lennard GER vs TOMIC, Bernard AUS [27]

MAYER, Leonardo ARG [24] vs KOKKINAKIS, Thanasi AUS TIPSAREVIC, Janko SRB vs GRANOLLERS, Marcel ESP
ILHAN, Marsel TUR vs JANOWICZ, Jerzy POL
POUILLE, Lucas FRA vs ANDERSON, Kevin RSA [14]

CILIC, Marin CRO [9] vs MORIYA, Hiroki JPN (Q) HAIDER-MAURER, Andreas AUT vs BERANKIS, Ricardas LTU
EBDEN, Matthew AUS (WC) vs ROLA, Blaz SLO
SOEDA, Go JPN vs ISNER, John USA [17]

CUEVAS, Pablo URU [28] vs KUDLA, Denis USA (WC) GABASHVILI, Teymuraz RUS vs ZVEREV, Alexander GER
SOUZA, Joao BRA vs GIRALDO, Santiago COL
BOLELLI, Simone ITA vs NISHIKORI, Kei JPN [5]

WAWRINKA, Stan SUI [4] vs SOUSA, Joao POR ESTRELLA BURGOS, Victor DOM vs BECKER, Benjamin GER
KLIZAN, Martin SVK vs VERDASCO, Fernando ESP
SELA, Dudi ISR vs THIEM, Dominic AUT [32]

ROBREDO, Tommy ESP [19] vs MILLMAN, John AUS (Q) YOUNG, Donald USA vs BAGHDATIS, Marcos CYP
BROADY, Liam GBR (WC) vs MATOSEVIC, Marinko AUS
ZEBALLOS, Horacio ARG (Q) vs GOFFIN, David BEL [16]

DIMITROV, Grigor BUL [11] vs DELBONIS, Federico ARG LACKO, Lukas SVK vs JOHNSON, Steve USA
DE SCHEPPER, Kenny FRA (Q) vs SMITH, John-Patrick AUS (Q)
SAVILLE, Luke AUS (Q) vs GASQUET, Richard FRA [21]

KYRGIOS, Nick AUS [26] vs SCHWARTZMAN, Diego ARG MONACO, Juan ARG vs MAYER, Florian GER
LAJOVIC, Dusan SRB vs HAAS, Tommy GER
GIMENO-TRAVER, Daniel ESP vs RAONIC, Milos CAN [7]

FERRER, David ESP [8] vs WARD, James GBR (WC) VESELY, Jiri CZE vs LORENZI, Paolo ITA
POSPISIL, Vasek CAN vs MILLOT, Vincent FRA (Q)
SMYCZEK, Tim USA vs FOGNINI, Fabio ITA [30],

TROICKI,Viktor SRB [22] vs NEDOVYESOV, Aleksandr KAZ (Q) STEPANEK, Radek CZE vs BEDENE, Aljaz GBR
BROWN, Dustin GER (Q) vs LU, Yen-Hsun TPE
BELLUCCI, Thomaz BRA vs NADAL, Rafael ESP [10]

TSONGA, Jo-Wilfried FRA [13] vs MULLER, Gilles LUX ISTOMIN, Denis UZB vs RAMOS-VINOLAS, Albert ESP
DOLGOPOLOV, Alexandr UKR vs EDMUND, Kyle GBR (WC)
YMER, Elias SWE (Q) vs KARLOVIC, Ivo CRO [23]

SEPPI, Andreas ITA [25] vs KLEIN, Brydan GBR (WC) STAKHOVSKY, Sergiy UKR vs CORIC, Borna CRO
HAASE, Robin NED vs FALLA, Alejandro COL (Q)
KUKUSHKIN, Mikhail KAZ vs MURRAY, Andy GBR [3]

BERDYCH, Tomas CZE [6] vs CHARDY, Jeremy FRA KRAJINOVIC, Filip SRB vs MAHUT, Nicolas FRA (WC)
GULBIS, Ernests LAT vs ROSOL, Lukas CZE
ANDUJAR, Pablo ESP vs GARCIA-LOPEZ, Guillermo ESP [29]

MONFILS, Gael FRA [18] vs CARRENO BUSTA, Pablo ESP MANNARINO, Adrian FRA vs BERRER, Michael GER (Q)
SUGITA, Yuichi JPN (Q) vs KAVCIC, Blaz SLO
ALMAGRO, Nicolas ESP vs SIMON, Gilles FRA [12]

LOPEZ, Feliciano ESP [15] vs DARCIS, Steve BEL
BASILASHVILI, Nikoloz GEO (Q) vs BAGNIS, Facundo ARG
PAIRE, Benoit FRA vs YOUZHNY, Mikhail RUS
BEMELMANS, Ruben BEL vs BAUTISTA AGUT, Roberto ESP [20]

SOCK, Jack USA [31] vs GROTH, Sam AUS
JAZIRI, Malek TUN vs DUCKWORTH, James AUS
QUERREY, Sam USA vs SIJSLING, Igor NED (Q)
DZUMHUR, Damir BIH vs FEDERER, Roger SUI [2]


Shivam Says:

It is fully open for Novak becoz he faced every big server in their some matches but everyone know that the big server were not running fast on grass and they can servive their game on serviing avability. so I could say that novak path have easy till the semifinal, and other man like big four have tough draw with start on their prequater final matches.
I hope semifinal will be between Novak vs Wawrinka and other half Murry/Nadal vs roger

but all the best for new comers like borna coric, a zavere, nick kargious, etc Ist and IInd timer wimbldolist.


Tina Says:

I truely believe Roger Federer will win his 8th Wimbledon and his 18th grand Slam! He looks to have a good draw.


sieñña Says:

O Tina youre gonna get the Brady Bunch all over You.


Jeff Says:

Interesting draw;

Really tough for murray and djokovic
doable for Federer
Nadal….no chance
wawrinka…..if he wins this it’ll be even more of a shock than the French open


pitchaboy Says:

Nadal and Stan likely gone before QF.
Either Federer or Murray will win it all.


sieñña Says:

Murray is the better player?

last time they met on a fast court it was 0 and 1.

Reminder Sean Gandalf!! 0!!! AND 1!!!!!!!!


Tennis Vagabond Says:

Djokovic has the toughest early draw. But Nishikori or Isner are not the deadliest of QF opponents.

The second quarter is super interesting with the Kyrgios-Dmitrov-Raonic group, but I have a feeling Raonic will fly through. On the other hand, he’s just back from injury, so perhaps not.
Wawrinka has a pretty easy draw, I have to think if he gets his footing on grass and starts to feel it for week two, he’ll take out Raonic.

Murray has a tough R16 in Tsonga, Rafa’s SHOULD be easier with Ferrer, but I have lost faith in Rafa’s ability to go deep at Wimbledon. Wouldn’t be surprised if we see a different opponent for Murray in QFs. Murray should win if it’s Rafa.

Fed has a quite easy path to the QFs, but Tomas will be a serious danger there.

Of the top 4, I think Fed’s QF opponent is most dangerous, then Warwinka’s (Raonic), then Murray’s (Rafa) and I think Novak gets it relatively easy with Isner/Nishikori.

A Fed/ Murray, Stan/ Novak SF lineup would be spectacular. Imagine, Fed/Murray would really be the undercard (at least in terms of recent form and news-making, if not actual popularity).

Looks like a terrific draw for fans: we get some great matches right from the start, and great story lines heading to QFs.


Angel Says:

Berdich, has a tough draw too. He faces Chardy in the opener, them Mahut and if he ges through that he could face Rosol. So it’s not that easy.


Daniel Says:

I think now this looks more like Djoko.
The last Slams who ever came from tough draws did not win: Murray in Australia (him, Fed and Nadal were at the same side) Djoko won; Djkovic in RG (him, Nadal and Murray were on the same side) Wawa won it. now Federer, Murray and Nadal again on the same side.

If the trend continues the winner will be from top side: Djoko or Wawa.

For Murray to potentially beat Tsonga, Nadal, Fed and Djoko that would be increduble. Hard to se it now.

Tourney has to be played tough, form of players can give us more insight. But indeed a noce draw with several potentailly great match ups. Although grass there is less people who excells on, it creates more unpredictable resulta due to the margins being very low for mistakes, fewer break of serves and really a few points can decide a macth.


Daniel Says:

Also is odd that Djoko as #1 is not playing a qualifier in either of hos first two rounds.


montecarlo Says:

More than 50% chance Djokovic is going out to Kohlschreiber in the first round. Kohlschreiber is 4th or 5th best grass courter right now and he should have won against Federer last week. So unless Kohlschreiber chokes (which he does 9 out of 10 times) he will win this.


Jock-KatH Says:

Angel
Chardy, Mahut and/or Rosol could make Tomas work hard but doubt they will beat him.

TV: Agree Phillip will be a difficult first match for Nole. Isner unlikely to trouble him — but Nishikori could be a different proposition – he can get hot.


pitchaboy Says:

Novak is not winning this. I would not be surprised if he is out in the first week on the slippery grass.


Colin Says:

I’m a little puzzled that Tsonga is being touted as a threat. He isn’t fit, and a large, heavy guy like him needs to be in top condition for this tournament.

On the evidence of Queen’s, Anderson could do well in the early stages.

Someone was pointing to Murray’s record against Nole, but the same argument could have been used a few weeks ago to say Stan couldn’t possibly win the French Open. He did, though, didn’t he?


nitesh Says:

simply loved the draw
beautiful & very intresting


jane Says:

“More than 50% chance Djokovic is going out to Kohlschreiber in the first round. ”

hmmm, i agree that kohls is a super tough first rounder, and novak has never played him on grass and is not really tuned up imo. he lost today to zverev. but a more than 50% chance? i don’t know but that seems a little high considering it’s a best of 5 match. nerve-wracking one to anticipate though, for nole’s fans.


skeezer Says:

The draw was kind to Rafa considering he is seeded #10.


RogNadFan Says:

@skeezer,
My thoughts exactly!


Jeez Says:

There is a RUMOUR going on in some tennis forums that the best way to take out DJOKER is the 1st round(with just EXIHIBITION TUNEUP)

Main CONTENDERS were

KOHLSCHREIBER,
MAHUT,
&
BAGHDADTIS..

Murray winning a 2nd WIMBLEDON is something that can do the TRICK[as in 2013]

But they are just RUMOURS I guess!!!

:-)


sieñña Says:

according to prognoses by Sean Djokovic should be sitting on 15+ slams.


Klaas Says:

Djokovic has often been a slow starter in the Slams: the first round against Kohli will be a thriller!


jane Says:

jeez, how can rumours relate to actual draws? i am not sure i get your point. for sure kohls is a tough one on grass if that’s your point.


Thangs Says:

In 2012 draw, Sean said rafa is the one who can beat all 3 to win title. Now, its Murray’s chance. He can beat all 3 game wise now. But, is he mentally strong to beat all three in a row without being drained out emotinally? He doesn’t have to worry now…Nadal making Qf, Federer making Sf itself is a big question mark..


calmdownplease Says:

Agreed Thangs

Muzz more often than not gets lethal draws but
this one will open up at some point, as have many of the previous.
Particularly on the green stuff.


jane Says:

thangs, in 2013 fedal were both on andy’s side but they both lost early that year. like cdp says, the draw will probably open up as opposed to playing to seed.


van orten Says:

Hahahhahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhaahhahahahahahahahahahahahagagahhagahagahahahahhahaha

Just the better Player….joke of the ages!!!!!! Oh my god what a joke ..do you really mean that ???????? Hahhahahahahhahahahahahahhahahahahahhahahhaahhhhahahahahahahhahh


calmdownplease Says:

@van orten

Are you alright?


jane Says:

“Daniel Says:Also is odd that Djoko as #1 is not playing a qualifier in either of hos first two rounds.”

he doesn’t seem to play a lot of qualifiers in general. yolita said that over the past 5 years, more than a third of his matches were vs top 10s. gah!


Matador Says:

Finally, Murray is on Federer side.
I also think Murray can win his second title
Hope Rafa can advance until qf to meet the Scotish. If he reaches that instance, he will be motivate to face one of the best player in this surface, maybe the best today. Good draw overall.


Tennis lover Says:

Nadal’s early exit, djokovic’s unexpected fall is quite certain. Even, Federer could buckle out at some point. Murray has a chance to win it all if he doesn’t have to face more than one of his fellow big 3 elites. This wimbledon could also produce a shock winner. Finally, warning to the tennis freaks here, you better come out of big 4′s sleeves, by 2016, their outright hold of grandslam trophy will be significantly slackened. We must find a way to cheer for someone outside big 4. Having said this, I wish Maestro ends his career with one more wimbledon and 18 GS which will add another aura to his unmatched legacy.


Giles Says:

Tennis Lover. Keep dreaming!!


chris ford1 Says:

Don’t understand the bad luck of how Nole keeps getting these hard 1st and 2nd round opponents. Or how some events seem to stack him up like the FO did in the quarters, and semis.

But talk about screwed! Poor Kohlschreiber gets Fed in the 1st Round of his home tournament in Halle. Almost beats Fed in a great match. Loses and gets not points amd minimal money.
Then his consolation prize is Nole in the 1st round at Wimbledon.


Jock-KatH Says:

Chrisford1 – Phillip also got Murray in the TWO recent clay tournaments.


Daniel Says:

Although the draw seems hard for Fed if somebody beats Djoko in the other side the semis between Fed X Murray could determine the winner. I think of Fed has to beat only Murray in semis and a Raonic / Nihiskori / Wawa in finals I fancy his shot a lot. Some are sating draw can ipen up for Murry but it can open up for Fed as well.

This seems to be a very drama Wimbledon with every match a dangerous one.

RG we jnew dee down the fun would only start Qyuarters onwards and the hyped Monfils x Fed match R16 didn’t deliver. Here the drama will be almost on every match.


Ruby Says:

I’m somewhat skeptical on this talk of Kohlschreiber as a major threat. He’s only ever beaten Djokovic once in his career, 6 years ago, on clay! And Kohlschreiber has not had much success at Wimbledon in several years.

Certainly, it can come to pass that Kohlschreiber plays lights out and Djoko comes out flat, but those are fairly big ifs, under the circumstances. (And I imagine Kohlschreiber was a lot more depressed to see Djoko first in his draw than the reverse …)

Still, it’s more interesting than most first-round matches!


Ger Says:

The only slam Fred got in 5 years was another one of novak’s “happy go lucky losses”. This time, as long as Novak has dignity, he will win first place. There is no lucky meltdown to help fdeal… That is just too bad.


alex Says:

I agree that this WImby will be a very interesting one.
I do not think Wawa can give Nole trouble.
Best of luck to Federer. Hope he can get his no. 18 here.
I do not mind Murray.
Please do not let Big Berd do it. Anyone else but not him.
Case closed.


sienna Says:

Van Orten
You have by far the most normal reaction.
Time somebody took a stand against madness.


Tennis Fan Says:

Sean’s obvious lack of respect for Federer is a bit insulting.

Why is it that you get to write these blog’s anyway, Wouldn’t the qualifications be related to an understanding of tennis?


Wog Boy Says:

“Murray d Federer: Murray is just the better player.”

Murray is better player then Federer at the present, check their results this year, nothing wrong with this statement. Nobody is talking about overall achievements, but that is past not present. If you ask me Murray is favorite to win a lot.


Wog Boy Says:

Sean, can you delete or make shorter that “hahaha…” post, it stuffed my screen and the whole thread, please?


danica Says:

Well, at this moment, right now, Murray is the better player. What is there not to understand? He is #2 at the ATP race and had better results this season. Like it or not, the only thing that matters is the current form and Andy seems to be in a better position.

As for Nole and draws, he is the case point that the draws are rigged (not to mention times of mathes, specially few years back when he was constantly given to play at like noon). Didn’t he also “draw” a #33 last year as a first round opponent in one of the Slams?


danica Says:

Seems like Wog Boy was faster than me :)). While I was reading the whole thread, he wrote the same thing I thought about :).


Kean Says:

Tennis Fan Says:
Sean’s obvious lack of respect for Federer is a bit insulting.

Yeah Sean is just another disgusting brittard.The Pushray hype is endless.


jane Says:

sean is an admitted federer fan, for those who don’t know or who are calling him disrespectful etc…


funches Says:

Since Kohlshchreiber was the highest ranked player not seeded, he will be moved away from Djokovic in the draw if any of the seeds pulls out before the start of the tournament.

Tsonga has pulled out of three consecutive grass events since leaving Roland Garros with an injury, so he is a possible candidate. If Tsonga pulls out this weekend before the opening day’s schedule is announced, they would make Kohlschreiber the No. 33 seed and move him to Tsonga’s spot, with a lucky loser playing Djokovic in the first round.

While that would be a huge break for both Djokovic and Kohlschreiber, Kohlschreiber still might not get out of the first round with Gilles Muller as his opponent.


jane Says:

thanks for that info finches. i didnt know that about tsonga, but a quick google search revealed that he is indeed injured, so even if he does play, he’s unlikely to be a threat or go far.

http://espn.go.com/tennis/story/_/id/13112993/jo-wilfried-tsonga-doubtful-wimbledon-abdominal-injury


jane Says:

funches* sorry, autocorrect…


Daniel Says:

Suddenly Murray’s draw is better with this Tsonga injury. If Fed or Nadal (very likely due to recent grass results in Wimby) loses early, suddenly his chances improve.

Can’t wait for next week to start, love this RG-Wimby spam where 2 majors are played within 5 weeks, awesome.


Michael Says:

Facing Kohlschreiber in the first round is going to prove very tricky for Novak considering that he didn’t have much match practice after Rolland Garros and although he is not set to meet the creamy players, yet he has to navigate quite a tough competition in my opinion !!

Of the Fantastic Four (I include Rafa in my calculations although he is seeded 10th), it is Roger who has a comparatively easy ride although Berdych in the quarters might pose enough problems as he has beaten Roger here in the past and has the confidence and inspiration to draw from.

Andy has a brutal draw along side Rafa, but if the two meet in the quarter finals as worked out, I have to go with Andy considering their recent form.

All in all, it appears to be very interesting as Sean pointed out and may be we can even expect a new Wimbledon winner from nowhere.

My favourites for this Wimbledon are Andy, Novak, Roger and Wawarinka – in that order !!


Jeez Says:

@funches
June 26th, 2015 at 10:07 pm

I would presume[WITHDRAWAL] between 2 Frenchmen

MONFILS

or

TSONGA ??

Is there a possibility of BOTH withdrawing !!!??


Hippy Chick Says:

Michael read Rubys post at 3.52pm June 26th,she sums things up perfectly,its an interesting match up for a first round granted,but i think given that Phil hasnt actually beaten Novak for six years,and the way Novaks been playing so far this year Phil would be the player loosing more sleep about playing Novak,than Novak will be about playing Phil….


Jeez Says:

Thanasi Kokkinakis sexually harassed at the Boodles exho

https://twitter.com/stroppadel/status/614148015293624320

LOL …!!!!

:-}


Hippy Chick Says:

^Its like one of the posters said though,it seems OK for alot of women to grope a man,yet if that were men doing it to a female player,you can only imagine the out cry,such double standards?^


sienna Says:

Murray better then Federer?
atp ranking says clearly different. Even wimbly has own seeding procedure and Murray is seeded below Federer.
Last meeting between them was a white wash. 0 and 1.

only year to date ranking Murray is higher but that will change soon in the remaining fast court season. Most important he is higher in the race because his draws were mutch nicer to him.

Almost all indicators suggest Federer as the better player.


van orten Says:

Ok ok Murray is just the better player..I forgot that he is number two in the atp race :)))


Klaas Says:

Unlikely Monfils and/or Tsonga will quit before first round: there is also the small matter of a payday at the Slams, even in the first round.


Tennisfan Says:

Anyone who thinks draws are rigged is obviously very immature. You think something as explosive as that would really stay a secret? Furthermore, they pull out the draw live! It has always been that some players will benefit from the draw but others will luck out.


Okiegal Says:

@Tennisfan

I feel the same way way about the draws. I don’t understand how people think this could really happen. There are a few on this forum who argue this point quite often. Maybe they know something I don’t. Don’t the #1 players in both the men’s and women’s field draw out the tiles? As you said it’s done live in front of several people. One poster on here said that they were not close to the people where the draw was taking place and it would be easy to switch things around. There’s is no way I believe this either…..however, some do. Rigged draws would mean cupcakes for some and crap for others. Just don’t get how this could ever be pulled off, imo.


elina Says:

Then colour me very immature. You can watch any draw on YouTube. The tags are carefully concealed before they are placed in the bowl. The player drawing the tag does not get to see the seed on the tag. It is handed to the illusionist I mean tournament official who “reveals” the result.

Roger avoided every dangerous player until the semis.

Never in doubt.

Alex lamonf!!!


Daniel Says:

elina,

Out of Wawa and Murray, Federer got Murray who mant consider the favorite for this title, the worst opponent.

Out of Kei, Raonic, Ferrer abd Berdych, Federer draw Berdych who is the only one of the 4 who has beaten Federer in Slams, including this Slam in convincingly 4 sets (even Nadal and Djoko needed 5 sets to beat Fed in 08′ and 14′). So he again draw the worst potential opponent for him. Don’t see how Fed’s draw is worst or “rigged” in this case.


elina Says:

Wawa just took out Federer in straights at the French (and no I’m not comparing clay to grass). Wawa’s slam results have been superior to Murray’s recently. Wawa has quietly improved on grass and can make a big push this year. Wawa should have beaten Roger at WTF but seriously choked at the end. Wawa has a much better chance taking out Nole in the semis. He has proven this multiple times.

Murray is getting hyped. He has yet to deliver in slams in two years.

Berdy’s win at Wimby was five years ago. Only Ferrer would have been easier.

All the hard servers were put in Novak and Stan’s quarter. Like I said, zero threats for Roger before semis.

It was a very smartly crafted draw indeed.

Never in doubt.


elina Says:

Murray has an 11 match losing streak vs Fedole. He lost 60, 61 to Fed at WTF in November. He has lost 7 of last eight sets to Roger.

Wawa is 4-6 last 10 vs Fedole and four of those losses were very close.

Murray is no slouch but Wawa has the ability to dictate the match when he is at his best.


Giles Says:

Anything for fed, eh? Even rigging the draws? Won’t be a bit surprised!


wilfried Says:

@Tennisfan and @ Ok(lahom)ie June 27th, 2015 at 9:22 am
It is not a matter of being immature but having a feeling for justice, at least in my case, because when the composition of a slam draw manifestly doesn’t comply with the rules of the ATP’s own Rulesbook (by mistake or whatever reason it may have been), the door is then also wide open for everything else that’s not so manifestly or visible.
Let’s for instance look at some rules of that book as far as the placement of the seeds is concerned.
The placement of the seeds in the draw is specified at page 105 of Chapter VII of the ATP Rulesbook which you can find and open on the homepage of the ATP website (somewhere down in that page at the left), for each size of draw. More precisely the placement of the seeds of a slam is determined in the last column of the table on that page (-> draws of 96 players or more).
In that last column, you can read that seeds 13-16 should be placed either at line 16, line 48, line 81 or line 113 of the draw, and that seeds 17-24 should be placed at lines 9,24,41,56,73,88,105 or 120.
I’ll give you 2 examples of draws where the result of the draw did not completely comply with those rules, and potentially gave a (slightly) unfair advantage to one or more players in that section of the draw.
First example.
The placement of David Ferrer, seeded 17th, on line 16, in the 2011 Australian Open draw (in the section of Leyton Hewitt).
Lline 16 is normally preserved for a guy seeded 13th till 16th and not for a guy seeded 17th (which could have its implications in the 3d round for the player on line 9 if that guy survives the first two rounds).
Second example.
The placement of Mikhail Youzny , seeded 16th, on line 120 in the 2008 Wimbledon draw (in Nadal’s section) and Radek Stepanek, seeded 14th, on line 113, who(m?) collided in the third round, with Youzny prevailing.
When the rules of the Rulebook had been applied correctly, Youzny and Stepanek could never have met each other as early as the third round, only at the earliest in the fourth round ( when they are drawn in the same section of the draw).
Nobody present at the ceremony of those draws did protest that the draw wasn’t executed according to the existing rules.
Either they didn’t notice it, or didn’t care, or didn’t dare to protest.


Tennisfan Says:

It’s the ITF and not the ATP that governs the slams.


wilfried Says:

Do they have a Rulebook of their own?


wilfried Says:

Its clear that the the placement-rules as specified in the Rulebook of ATP at page 105 of that Book, are the guidelines for the composition of a slam as well.
Who’s governing the event doens’t matter there.
If you take a look at the Wimbledon draw, you’ll find indeed seeds 13, 14, 15 and 16 either on line 16, line 48, line 81 or line 113, and not on any other line of the draw.
Same for the rules for all the other seeds.
Who’s governing the event doesn’t chang anything to this.


Tennisfan Says:

Not true. The ITF have a slam rule book with clear guidelines for draws: http://www.itftennis.com/media/195784/195784.pdf
It’s kind of common knowledge that the ATP don’t control the slams or the Davis Cup.
Given how important and public the slams are, do you really think no-one would notice if the draw was violating the rules? The top players and their teams make a fuss about even the smallest rule violations at the slams (and rightly so,) let alone something as major as the draw.


wilfried Says:

Correct, but the placement rules of the ITF-book are identical with those of the ATP-Rulebook. Take a look at it and you’ll see it yourself.
Your critcs to my comment are therefore worht zero in my eyes.
You ignore the core of what I wrote: nobody reacts when the rules are appied accordingly.


wilfried Says:

correction: … when the rules are not applied according the Rulebook


jane Says:

i don’t know if draws are / are not rigged, but people have noticed and analyzed it before. the talk here is nothing new and no different from other sites. here’s an article from ESPN on the matter

http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/6850893/espn-analysis-finds-top-seeds-tennis-us-open-had-easier-draw-statistically-likely


Thangs Says:

we can’t play around much..we can set qf or sf..Do you want Murray or Stan? or any preference for qf?

Come on, I am solid enough to make semi.. mmmmmmmmmm..I prefer murray at this point…Stan was tough for me last year…In paris, he didn’t even give me any break point..I will go with Murray..wait, make sure he has tough qf

Ok then, lets put nadal there..


wilfried Says:

@Jane
I don’t think it is mentioned anywhere in those Rulebooks that the draw with a random method. Calling a draw rigged is therefore misplaced in my view as it is not an obligation for them to do it that way.
But placing seeds on other lines than those provided by the rules, is a violation in my view. And not always an innocent violation of the rules.


jane Says:

i don’t know wilfried. i honestly have never looked at rules, i don’t know if they’re supposed to be random, etc… but all i was saying is that those who act surprised that it’s a point of discussion must not follow tennis sites or read many articles because “draw fixing” or “rigging” or whatever word you want to use has been a discussion point since i started following tennis online almost a decade ago. it’s nothing new or surprising.


Tennisfan Says:

@wilfried No I didn’t go through those rules, but I’ll take your word for it then. I’m surprised none of the players or their teams raised concerns about the rules being violated. Imo, there are too many people that try to discredit players by suggesting draws are rigged without having any proof.


sienna Says:

So Fed is hand picking every draw?
Us open draw was rigged because it gave advantage to every top seed.they wanted Top players to survive first rounds.
But now Federer is hand picking every match ……
Wow the power of the Federator is even bigger then Ik thought.


Klaas Says:

All this talk of rigged draws in this day and age, with so much prestige at risk, and so much money on the line for the Slam events, and with tv looking over their shoulder, is nothing but pure paranoid drivel.


Giles Says:

There will never be proof. If there was the ATP and ITF will be ripped to shreds and probably dissolved


wilfried Says:

It’s indeed nothing new.Jane.
Mat4 and myself are among the few who wrote in a consistent way about that topic in the past because the composition of the draws often doesn’t seem to be the outcome of a random process.
And Novak has been in my view one of the main victims of that business.
But what can he do about it, and we for that matter? Nothing.
Idem for the doping issue, which is of even greater importance from a point of view of justice. Nobody of the players dares to opnely talk about it.
And we as bloggers or commentators are not allowed to talk about it.


Hippy Chick Says:

It wouldnt say much for the credibilty/integrity of the tour if the draws were rigged….


jane Says:

“with so much prestige at risk, and so much money on the line for the Slam events, and with tv”

klass, again, i am not saying they are rigged, but some of those who argue that they are use these very reasons as support.

prestige
money
television

i.e., people want the best match ups, and the biggest sponsors, in the most important tennis matches of the year.

—————–

wilfred, people do talk about these things, but it’s largely fleeting for sure. it seems to me, though, that every season both doping and draw-rigging are topics for debate at some point in the year, just like h2hs, GOAT, etc, etc… :)


Ruby Says:

This must be the conspiracy section of the forum.

@Wilfried,I would like to know what mysterious powers prevent bloggers from talking about drugs in tennis. The thing people disdain is simple finger-pointing with no evidence or comprehension. If you have something substantive to say, I’m sure you could find a forum in which to say it. People said a whole lot about the subject in cycling forums for a decade before Lance Armstrong’s confessions (I know because I was reading it) and that was with a far more powerful Omertà than there could ever possibly be in tennis. Or is it witchcraft?


Skeezer Says:

It would be nice for transparency and integrity reasons for the Tour draws to be audited by an outside agency periodically.
But all this has to start with the players. If they don’t complain, they must be happy with the process. If they are not, its there own fault.
For me until I hear the players protesting, its a moot point.


jane Says:

skeezer, that’s an interesting idea. but yeah, unless the players are concerned, or there are more “investigative journalism” pieces like the one by ESPN, it would be unlikely to have any stick.


elina Says:

Thirteen consecutive non clay slams with Roger and Novak in the same half with a random draw is a pretty big coincidence.

Good luck flipping a coin heads thirteen times in a row.

Professional sports is entertainment business. Good business practise leaves little to chance.

It is what it is.


alice Says:

If slam draws were being rigged on a regular basis then that would involve a fair number of people in the know. It seems difficult to believe that given the law of averages no-one has blown the whistle on a former employer or simply got caught out. There may be big money involved in fixing draws but there is also big money involved in exposes for all the media whether tv or the press. Over time the chances of getting caught out would increase exponentially yet there has never been a sting nor has anyone got busted.


wilfried Says:

@Ruby
I stated facts (which you can easily check yourself) and didn’t even elaborate the item as it would require me to explain the whole philosophy behind the construction of draws, and the implications of any abrogation to that construction.
I’m less familiar with the topic of drugs, but I know for a fact that you get banned from certain blogs if you even try to discuss it there. Some have it even in their “commenting rules”.
Anyways. You don’t have to agree with me, and I respect your opinion, if it is one based on good argumens and facts.
@ Skeezer
Agree with your view.
I assume most players and teams have more to lose by complaining than by leaving things like they are. And I assume they all make a balance of the risks and returns involved in any possible action.


RZ Says:

So what did Philip Kohlschreiber do to irk the tennis draw gods? He’s a pretty good grass court player but he got Federer in the first round of Halle and now gets Djokovic in the first round of Wimbledon. Shame for him as he could have gained quite a few points by going a few rounds at both tournaments.


van orten Says:

On second thought wouldn’t it be great to see one maybe “final act ” fedal in the semis ?


Wog Boy Says:

We have seen Fedal final act long time ago, Fedal basically doesn’t exist since 2010, the guy owns the goat, but there is Rafole, Andole and Fedole for a change.


Skeezer Says:

^your opinion, maybe YOU have cause as you love all things Nole, but imo its wrong. Its a gaurantee that if these 2 meet this year by chance at Wimby, it will be the highest rated watched match. Just watch.


Ruby Says:

@Wilfried, I don’t dispute that there may be minor issues with the draw-making process that might not stand up to snuff. I do dispute that there is a conspiracy to favor one top player over another, for which there is no evidence that has been presented here. As many have said, if that was the case, why aren’t the player themselves incensed?

On the drug issue, there may be “some” blogs that don’t want it discussed but there are certainly places where it is and has been discussed. In fact, there’s an entire blog (albeit a very unscientific one) devoted to the subject! There are many reasons the conversation doesn’t get much traction, but people talking with no knowledge and making libelous, unsupported statements is what usually turns off blog and forum owners. If someone has credible personal inside information to share — which, for example, was true of a number of retired pro cyclists — I’m sure MANY would be willing to listen. But that hasn’t happened.


jane Says:

just guessing skeezer, but i think wog boy means in terms of match rivalry not so much in terms of match attractiveness and/or from a fan perspective. fedal matches are always popular.

but starting in 2011 fed’s won 2 of 11 matches vs rafa, and only 2 sets in the 9 matches he didn’t win so it’s been kind of one-sided.

by contrast, fedole and rafole have been quite competitive and back and forth.

true, andy vs novak has been lopsided for the short stretch from 2014 to the first half of 2015 given that matches have gone novak’s way; however, some have been super close and andy’s taken 5 sets from nole over that stretch of losses.

with all that said, i was actually hoping that fedal would meet last year post-wimbledon, or this year too. it would’ve been interesting to see if the outcome would’ve been different since fed has had good success under edberg. alas, they haven’t met since the very beginning of 2014 when fedberg just started.

i would be interested to see them meet at wimbledon, only it is probably more likely that murray faces fed in the semis?

rafa does seem very motivated to do well here, though.


jane Says:

Kind of a vague article: assurance is perfectly fine. All
Coaches and boxes offer it. Telling if something is good or bad is more nebulous. If it’s behaviour or attitude, the meh. Shots are different and more like coaching.


jane Says:

*then meh (not the), sorry for typos


skeezer Says:

jane,
Agree, not much teeth in that article compared to the unc toni / rafa connection but in all fairness its out there.


jane Says:

yes, i am sure it is skeezer. maybe this exposure will help boris be a little more judicious with his words, etc. i actually don’t think he means bad, but he’s definitely been, erm, loquacious (?) lately.


Okiegal Says:

@Skeezer 2:38 Agree…..why hasn’t someone complained??

@Elina….I don’t agree with tennis fan that immaturity is the reason you think what you think. I should have clarified that in my comment…..don’t totally agree with everything he said.

Wilfried got down to the nitty gritty making his case concerning rigged draws…..He went to the rulebook….novel idea! I had no idea about who goes on what line. Too deep for me. I guess I just trust the system and the people involved are doing their job in a fair manner. There are a few who think differently. That’s their opinion and OK by me. Heck, maybe there is something sinister going on…….

@Elina….One other thing, I’m gonna find some of those You Tube draws….I could change my mind.


Okiegal Says:

Skeezer’s post @12:03 provides a link about Novak getting fined for receiving coaching. I had never heard about this until now. Did anyone else know about it? I wonder if it’s even true…..He talks to his box a lot and so does Andy. I don’t see Rafa and his box carrying on conversations, but we all know Uncle T. has a problem keeping his mouth shut and even admits it! I still say if Rafa, Novak, Andy, etal don’t know what they’re doing wrong when a match is going awry …as long as they’ve been playing, well, they might as well retire…..just saying…..Another thing on Rafa…all the commentators on TV, along with lots of posters on this forum says he stays too far behind the baseline and he still does it. I realize he’s more comfortable there, but if it’s detrimental too his game why doesn’t his coach, coach him to change it??
This is just puzzling to me. Sorry, got off of the subject at hand. It’s this wonderful Colorado elevation that’s got me to thinking deeper! Lol On vacation. Left Oklahoma to get out of the flooding areas and just heard the weather for CO and there is flooded places here too….Oh, well…we are here and will play it by ear! Oh, I made a rhyme!! :)


jane Says:

okie, i’m sure uncle toni must tell rafa to stay close to the baseline but people tend to revert to old patterns in tense moments. and yes, i think all or most players look to their boxes and who knows how often they’re fined, too. that article cites 2 times for novak, but both were pre-boris.


Okiegal Says:

@Jane…..but did you know this prior to reading the link?? I can’t believe it wasn’t expounded on by somebody…..people who can’t stand someone else’s favorite, get some info like this and go viral. It can get so nasty and ridiculous. They probably all have received coaching at one time or another. I guess the umpires know lots of different languages??? Could be a “silent” fine….Lol!

About Rafa and the baseline, maybe 3 vamoses from uncle T. means Rafa should move 3 ft closer to the baseline!! :)


jane Says:

i might’ve heard about one of them, but i honestly don’t think it’s that uncommon; players might get fined for other things we don’t hear about. i dunno.

i find it weirder, tbh, that boris would say those things about communicating during matches, or that uncle toni would say it’s perfectly fine to coach from the stands because he’s old and has earned it. lol. you’d think they’d be a little more discreet!


jane Says:

^ not that i am saying it’s okay, because it’s not. if they are coaching then they should be fined.


Okiegal Says:

@Jane….Totally understand where you are coming from. I don’t think it’s OK either. It’s a rule like taking too much time to serve between points. I had never heard about Novak’s fine. I don’t know what the big deal is…they pay mega bucks to the coach and then it’s against the rules to coach??? Having said that, I don’t believe one male player would call a coach down to the court, even if it was allowed….men too MACHO!!…..Lol. Too my knowledge, I don’t think Serena has either…MACHO girl!! She may have when she was younger. Didn’t follow her too much then like I do now. Yeah, the remark from Uncle T. was a classic! He needs to zip it. He gets Rafa into trouble quite often and Rafa doesn’t need any help in that department, he says way too much imho!!


Okiegal Says:

^^^^^To clarify….Rafa says way too much….


jane Says:

when i watch the women getting coached on court, okie, it always seems so awkward! not to mention often being totally obvious or general like ‘be aggressive’ and such. you’re right; i can’t see it working for the guys. i think they look to their box for morale more than anything.


Jeez Says:

First the “NO BONHOMIE” & now “ON COURT COACHING”

Boris is only doing more HARM to Novak’s REPUTATION that WORLD NO: 1 payer is incapable of sorting things out in CRUCIAL moments of the match!!!

BIG MOUTH BORIS is turning out be a case of BAD PR for Djokovic…


Jock-KatH Says:

Is there a player who doesn’t look at his box ever? I don’t know any. Players look triumphantly and wryly at their box and ALL coaches and supporters in their box Raise a fist/shout “C’mon”/stand up and grin AND when it is not going so good they normally portray an expressionless face. It’s not rocket science.

I think if they are accusing Nole/Boris of cheating they need to prove it. If Nole has twice been fined – as is being said – they should show it in a replay — it is a reasonable guess that we’ll see a rash of similar examples from other players.

Head-lining this sort of accusation against Nole a day before he plays his first match in a Grand Slam is unfair.


Okiegal Says:

@Jane….I think you are right….it’s all about support from their team.

Regarding the women getting on court coaching…Some of those little sessions aren’t too pleasant. I’ve actually seen the player get really aggravated at the coach and vice versa…..


sienna Says:

There is such a player.
Probably your head is to filled with hatred and bias to notice it.
Federer never ever seeks acknowledgement or moral support from his box or coach during matches.


Wog Boy Says:

@jane 11:04pm,

Thanks jane, I made it clear what I was referring to, as you said it, rivalry and not popularity, and I am sure the other poster knows that too, but..


Okiegal Says:

@Skeezer 1:12

Do you mean in all fairness to Rafa??


Okiegal Says:

@Vienna 4:07

You are right, you never see Roger talking to his box. Leaves the talking to his wife…..She’ll take care of things should a situation arise!! Lol The wife comment was in jest, but seriously, I’ve never seen Roger look their way…….I didn’t name him in my comment above regarding the players who tend to go to their box for support…..or coaching or whatever…..coz he don’t!!


Jock-KatH Says:

Sienna

Roger looks at his box like every player looks at his box and has been known to express his feelings at them.

But it’s the level of response from the box which is being criticised and evidently becomes the player’s responsibility when it appears to influence the match.

The raising of this issue at this time could be deliberate in order to affect Nole adversely.


Okiegal Says:

@sienna not Vienna…..sorry…sienna, not intended, stupid spell check on my Kindle….please 4give!!


Okiegal Says:

@Jock…..I don’t guess I should have said he NEVER has, but I personally have not really noticed it. Maybe he’s more subtle…….I did see him talk to Novak’s parents telling them to be quiet or shut up…don’t remember which…..time to Google…..


sienna Says:

No okiegal.
he shouts comeon not to get some kind of reaction from. Besides I dont he does that directed at box. But to all spectators in stands.
Murray, djokovic, Nadal clearly seek interaction with coaches and box.
If you do not see the clear difference between Federer and the others then youre either not that sharp, bright or youre aversie against Roger is just to big to make such a judgement callgirl.


sienna Says:

sorry for missing space at the end…. Lol


sienna Says:

O okiegal should JH I guess. My bad.


sienna Says:

yes he told the djoko to be quiet. not shut up.

they were talking about the Federer and starting to interphere with referee calls. The parents who were t shirt with King is dead long live new King.
when that ever see Rogers parents call out to a line call where djolovic was standing.

classless bunch of hooligans they are.


calmdownplease Says:

`Murray is no slouch but Wawa has the ability to dictate the match when he is at his best…`

Blah, Blah, Blah
Wawrinka has the ability to clean up vulture like and do it in style!
:)
And how many times are people going to ignore that Andy was out for months with back surgery in their `reasoning`
Tell Rafa if he is having fun getting back in the saddle.
Apparently the scars at the base of his spine were visible on court at Queens when he changed shirts.
So it was a bit more invasive than previously thought…


Okiegal Says:

@cdp….I get amused at people when they speak of a little routine minor surgery…..there is nothing minor about being put to sleep for a procedure of any kind, always major! I knew a child that died from a tonsilectomy! The team played it down….probably didn’t want a big bunch of hoopla over it, and he got it anyway! Any surgery is serious…..imo.


calmdownplease Says:

Sure is Okie
But for a top level sportsman even more so.
Lets see how this year plays out from now onwards
I’m pretty sure that Andy has now caught up and will want to do something about that post surgery collapse to `Fedole`
Starting next week I hope, and then we can ram it right down `sienna 01′s throat while we’re at it:)


Okiegal Says:

@calm….You got sienna all wrong, her guy is Cilic!! :)

My guy also had a surgery to deal with too. Don’t get over an operation over night. Maybe he will get it back together soon. He was 0/40 in the Boodles match and hit 3 aces in a row…that impressed me!!
Andy my second fav.


funches Says:

Well, Ferrer pulled out but not in time for them to re-jigger the draw. If he knew he was not going to be able to play, he did a disservice to Kohlshreiber (and maybe Djokovic) and the inherent fairness of the draw by waiting until today.

Vanni, Ward, Vesely, Lorenzi, Pospisil, Millot, Smyczek or Fognini will reach the fourth round. Good luck trying to pick that section.


Thangs Says:

Ferrer pulling out is big negative to rafa…he would have preferred playing known folks(if he progresses to 4R) rather playing someone with unknown game.

Last year, Gasguet was rafa wanted in 4R


Okiegal Says:

@sienna…..You are bad….


Jeez Says:

So much for the ALL TOUGH Kohlschreiber Opening round!!!

:-)

WIMPER !!!

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