Will Andy Murray Beat Novak Djokovic In The Australian Open Final?
by Sean Randall | January 29th, 2016, 10:58 pm
  • 72 Comments

I really want to pick Andy Murray to win tomorrow in the Australian Open final and end Novak Djokovic’s reign. But here’s my issue.

Watching his match yesterday against Milos Raonic, had Raonic not pulled up lame in that fourth set I think Murray was heading out. And if he’s losing to Milos how the hell is he going to beat Novak? Granted, Milos has that big serve but the Canadian was doing some damage to Murray off the ground. And Murray wasn’t especially sharp until the very end when Raonic was hobbled.

Djokovic, however, was quite sharp on Thursday night.

Plus, the head-to-head is all in Djokovic’s favor. He leads 21-9 winning 10 of their last 11 (Muray beat him at the Canadian last summer).

That said, all good things must come to an end, and Novak will eventually lose and fall from his perch. Murray’s more than capable of doing that Sunday. Like Gilles Simon, he has the defense, the guile, the speed and the variety of shot to keep Djokovic off balance like the Frenchman was able to do last week. But Murray also has weapons which actually might work against him. If you give Djokovic too much pace, too much angle and too many balls in his vast strikezone, you’re in trouble.

Since Murray’s become more aggressive he’s been losing to Djokovic more – at one point Murray had won 7 of 11 against Serb ending with his 2012 US Open win. Coincidence? Or Maybe Djokovic’s just better now.

Problem is, Djokovic is just so damn comfortable on Rod Laver. If it was Arthur Ashe at the US Open, I’d give Murray a better chance. But Novak’s never lost a final in Melbourne, he’s won all four previous meeting there over Murray, including last year, and he’s playing top-flight tennis.

Meanwhile, Murray arguably should have just lost to Raonic!

If Murray does have one thing going for him here, it’s the impending arrival of his first born. With the baby coming – and assuming all is well with Kim’s father Nigel Sears – I think Murray will be swinging more freely. No one really does expect him to win so I think he’ll go out there with a fun, relaxed attitude. Of course, if he gets close to the finish line, he’ll probably tighten up, but I think he’ll play a good match.

“The most important thing for me is to sustain my level for long enough, not just for one set here or there, a few games here or there,” Murray said. “I need to do it for a very long period if I want to get the win. That’s my challenge on Sunday.”

Murray will have to serve well, hit with depth and force Novak into errors, and maybe that does mean playing a more simon-esq game. And also attack Novak’s second serve. And I mean attack it! Losing 10 of the last 11 clearly isn’t working, so why not change things up!

In the end, Novak’s just better in every category (OK, I’ll give Murray the lob) and he’s more determined. He wants this title. And he’ll have it in the end. In a better, closer match than most people think…
The Pick: Djokovic in 4

As for yesterday, you have to feel bad for Raonic. He had the match in his control as Murray just couldn’t get a solid read on that serve. And Raonic, surprisingly, was able to push Murray around from the baseline and get him on the move. That said, Raonic still had trouble against Murray’s serve, so that’s a department he really needs to work on if he is the break the Big 4 and also he seems to be injury prone. But I think the path he is on and after this start to the season, he is looking more and more like the next player to win a first Grand Slam.

ESPN will again have the men’s final live at 3:30am ET Saturday morning.


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Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray For The 2015 Australian Open Title, Who’s The Pick?
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Andy Murray: Physically I’m Better Now Than When I Played The US Open Last Year [Video]

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72 Comments for Will Andy Murray Beat Novak Djokovic In The Australian Open Final?

Humble Rafa Says:

Men’s final is on Sunday.


nits Says:

Every match is different but the consistency shown by Djokovic is unparalleled. So going by the previous record & consistency it will be Djokovic


Pauly Says:

Murray must play the match of his life to have any chance plus his serve must be on fire or else no chance
Djokovic in 4 sets
First set is critical for Murray


Tennisfan Says:

Novak will win, I don’t think Andy can beat him at this point. Nole is just too good right now


chrisford1 Says:

OT, though there is a tennis court in the video some guy runs across while chasing a giraffe -that linked me to this on a search “Latest Tennis News” – well, anyone wants to see what is a tribute to Toto’s “Africa”, it is epic. Just released a couple days ago.

A rather well-known Hollywood couple (Kristen Bell and Dax Shepard) put together footage of their last vacation before having kids. Real savanna and Mountains of the Moon Africa. On a wildlife safari. Planning I guess, from the 1st, to make part of their trip filming a lip synch song tribute and “raging hard” to it in various African locales.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDSsxJPdge8

.


Pauly Says:

Only one who could’ve beaten Djokovic right now is Wawrinka in top form … He has the weapons to push Djokovic back in the court plus good serve for free points !
Wawrinka is just too inconsistent to be regarded great player but he still can come up at times & shock everyone .

Looking into my crystal ball … I see Djokovic firstly winning his first French open against Nadal … Then winning Losing Wimbledon to Murray … Then winning Olympic gold medal no idea against whom ?
Finally I see Djokovic winning US open against possibly Raonic ?
I could be wrong but who knows ???

All I can say with certainty is Djokovic will be number 1 for at least another 2 years


Margot Says:

“Nobody beats Vitas Gerulaitis 17 times in a row.”
Come on Andy!


chrisford1 Says:

I know Andy is very anxious to stem the bleeding when he matches up against Nole and fought some great fights already in 2015, losing all but Toronto but acquitting himself well. And next to Nole and an A-level Stan, Andy is a real contender..
It’s just that again, we are seeing Djokovic ramp up to be at his peak at the end of a tournament..You pause the vid against Simon in the latter stages of that match – you see the hunger and intensity on Djokovic’s face. You knew then he would just not lose to Gilles. He wants it all, and he is driven like few other standouts in this sport have been.
If I was Mauresmo and team, I would also steer Andy away from Lavers remarks about Djokovic progressing towards a Grand Slam is looking good at this stage, and how good it would be for the sport if some guy besides him had it won. It was never something that should go to only one man, Laver says..
I think what Rod was saying is that he favors Djokovic winning the AO over Andy….and should Nole win the FO, that would be 4 in a row. And Laver was just saying Grand Slam, not “calendar year Grand Slam”. To me that sounds like Rod may just become aligned behind any claim that should Djoker get 4 straight starting at any SLam, IT COUNTS!!
Of course it would all be moot if he gets 6 straight plus gold, but 4, with or without Olympics oughta do.
And of course, speculation on what winning the French would mean is all contingent on winning the AO 1st.


AndyMira Says:

Of course novak will win..no doubt about that..stats,facts,prediction all pointed to him but that doesn’t mean he can’t lose either..i’m sure andy will fight till the end,he’s done it before..if he can absorbed the enormous pressure when he won gold medal at olympic in front of home crowd..this is nothing..and i’m sure wife and the unborn baby will give him a personal motivation to lift a trophy..and what a better way to do that other than at AO..


Giles Says:

Maybe diarrhoea will stop joker, you know the date thing. 🤑


AndyMira Says:

See..the unthinkable happened..who would have thought serena would lose..and maybe things will be the same tomorrow?And maybe it’s time for andy to taste the glory as well?I certainly hope so..he deserve it..in tennis anything can happen..


AndyMira Says:

See..the unthinkable happened..who would have thought serena would lose..and maybe things will be the same tomorrow?And maybe it’s time for andy to taste the glory as well?I certainly hope so..he deserve it..in tennis anything can happen..


AndyMira Says:

I don’t know why my thread are doubled..it wasn’t supposed to be..


Pauly Says:

Murray can win now
Serena lost
Anything is possible


madmax Says:

No chance for Andy. Unfortunately for him.

He will fight and fight, but I can’t imagine any Murray fan can hold out much hope.

Novak is too much on fire, too focussed and in control of the world right now, let alone Tennis.

Good luck though. For tomorrow. To both men.


calmdownplease Says:

That’s because it was so good it had to be posted twice Andymira darling,
Yes!
Let Kerber be a lesson,
And that was an even more lopsided than what could happen tomorrow
Novak is Better in all the basic depts, true. But not by much that’s for sure, and not in whats needs to be undertaken fortunately
ie the mouse versus the cat kinds of variety in which Andy EXCELS
If he’s brave and he believes we could see an upset
(but probably not)


AndyMira Says:

CDP!at last..i thought you will never come out behind the sofa!He!He!ready for tomorrow?I already booked my place on the sofa..we have to prepare ourselves mentally and physically..in case we have to throw the sofa out the window..


calmdownplease Says:

Never do the sofa thing, the pillow case thing however..
I’m chill on a Sunday AM
And it’s on a bit too early for me, if I’m honest
But I’ll be up for once
for Andy….


AndyMira Says:

@CDP..no disrespect for serena..but if what happened to her can give andy some inspiration that anything is possible..he can go all out tomorrow and to hell with stats,facts etc and just play for his life..go for broke..a la stan the man,verdasco and fognini..i think it’s gonna be upset in the making..you think?


calmdownplease Says:

I don’t think, my dear
But I do hope, I suppose.
Actually, I’m not feeling much about this one either way
Quite relaxed with no expectations,
I’m sure going in as the underdog is quite relaxing for Andy too….


AndyMira Says:

CDP..you sound a little bit down..try to protect your heart?It’s okay..if andy lose..that mean he was not suppose to win tomorrow..it’s novak’s lucky day..but yeah..we have hope..


calmdownplease Says:

No, I’m not at all!

lol

Saturday is my favourite day too 🍾
Anyway, as I said, I’m relaxed about this one, but maybe a little curious about how it will turn out, i.e if Andy will accept that Novak is the King of the Baseline & try something different.
But,

‘Que Sera Sera’

And all that.


FlyingDoctor Says:

Luck day?? :) yeah novak you are such a lucky guy. Serena Federer Nadal Djokovic they all are so lucky. Poor Andy if he had a little luck, he would have 20 GS probably :)


Giles Says:

Now waiting for the other upset to take place tomorrow.
Come on Andy!


danica Says:

Bottom line is, predictions mean nothing. Neither do H2Hs. And since when Andy has no chance and is so below Nole? Last time I checked, he was #2 in the world and always playing Nole close. I, as a Nole supporter, am not at ease. Chances are 50:50 for both guys. We’ll see how the match will progress but today’s ladies’ final showed that everything is possible in the men’s too.

I will root for Nole and hope he wins, but if Andy does it, it will be deserved.


AndyMira Says:

Agree wholeheartedly with Danica..i don’t know why everybody have so little faith in andy..his chance to beat novak is much higher than rafa..and i think he will do anything in his power to avoid a result like last year..and he already learned his lessons well..


Margot Says:

And Jamie and Bruno are doubles champions!
What a terrific day.
Oooer Jamie now has as many slams as Andy!
C’mon Andy, show whose boss!


Michael Says:

Sean has analysed this very well and kudos to him.

Of late, Novak is looking quite comfortable against Andy and is handling him quite well on court. With the way, he is dominating Roger and Rafa, he rules over Andy too and playing on their minds about his supposedly invincibility factor.

Even Andy is not expecting that he would win the match tomorrow and will be going to the court in a casual fashion with less tension and freely swing his racket. I strongly feel that it is the first serve percentage of Andy which holds the key to whether he stretches the match tomorrow to the distance as Novak will easily attack his weak kicking second serve which doesn’t have a sting to deter outright swing against it. The battle ofcourse will be fought at the base line where Novak was looking quite sharp against Roger.

Thus, it will be a match for Novak to lose because he has the momentum, confidence and court advantage going for him. So, it is naturally advantage to him.

But stranger things have happened in Tennis and one cannot rule out outright an Andy’s win. He holds a slim chance to upset the apple cart of Novak like what Kerber did to Serena today when she floundered on her first serve percentage and making uncharacteristic unforced errors. It will be that kind of a bad day for Novak which Andy too would be hoping for to find a gate way to breach Novak’s splendid defence.

Having been in his 5th finals, it will really be a tragedy for Andy to lose here yet again. And naturally, sympathies are with him as he just cannot afford to lose this match which would totally demolarize him. But crossing the last barrier is a herculean task and one hopes Andy will live upto expectations and rise to the challenge to show the class that he has.

Expecting a very competitive match. Although Novak is my favourite, I would love poor Andy to win this match. But I know that Novak will have other plans and not allow that to happen tomorrow and he might win his 11th major getting close to Rafa in grand slam count.


AndyMira Says:

@Margot..there’s another sign for andy to give all out tomorrow..what a day for england and scotland if that’s happen..


AndyMira Says:

@CDP..i forgot to laugh @6.50am..funnyyy..


chrisford1 Says:

Danica – “Bottom line is, predictions mean nothing”

Bottom line, predictions are core to critical thinking, risk management in our daily lives, most science and business. And that includes the business of tennis and crafting the odds for the sport.

Danica – “Neither do H2Hs”.

If it is one player vs player with winner resolved on the bad matchup, then you can of course say it is problematic, proving nothing about respective ability deriving from H2H.
But if a olayer dominates the H2H over almost all players, it is not a matchup thing. That player is much better than most others on Tour and can beat anyone anywhere. That is why such players are ranked like Fed, Nole, and Rafa have been. It is based on H2H against the field.
Like Nadal said to a followup question about how he hated playing Nole, paraphased: Yes, Djokovic is a bad matchup for me, but he is a bad matchup for almost anyone else.:
It is used all the time, a core career metric when phrased differently as ranking points..(roughly the average H2H over a 365 day stretch against the field, which roughly, but not exactly, translates into wins and ranking points.)


skeezer Says:

For Milos fans;

https://www.facebook.com/tennis/posts/896125637167861

Have to say the guy is committed to his craft. All the best in 16 Milos…..


skeezer Says:

@margot,
It’s winter but your days lately have been filled with sunshine. Good on you ;). Hope for you Andy serves Nole a second serve Ace just once tomorrow :-)


jane Says:

congrats to the men’s doubles team.
i wonder why jamie and jelena never played more mixed doubles? they had such fun together and great chemistry on the court when they won mixed doubles back in … 2011 was it? can’t remember.
anyhow, kudos!


Margot Says:

Ah, thanks Skeeze. Virtual hugs to you.
Wishin’ and hopin’ …….


J-Kath Says:

I kinda liked Jamie’s comment on seeing Andy with his camera (after the win)- “What are you doing up?” he asked. “You should be in bed…”

I was thinking that myself.

The weather in my corner of the country is sunny but rattling with huge gusts of wind…I’ve lost power 4 times albeit for short periods…. fingers crossed for tomorrow as I want to see Andy 6.1, 6.0,and 3rd set 6.3 against Nole…….

OK….please don’t spoil my dream…and especially don’t say that is what it will be in reverse.


Margot Says:

And Kath another Scot, or should I say Brit…:) won the wheelchair slam. The mighty Gordon Reid.
What is going on? Love it, whatever it is :)


sisay Says:

J kat…actually i was thinking about the same score in straights for novak…milos was able to take two sets of andy and he let andy by his mercy…i think it is about how many games can andy take off novak let alone a set…sorry


Gypsy Gal Says:

Sisay yeah your probably right,but stating ones opinion out as a bona fide fact is so damn irritating,can we leave it out till after the final,god knows there will be enough of the bragging and trashing then unfortunatly,so why start making everyone else miserable now eh?….


Giles Says:

Is this going to be a weekend of upsets?
Is this going to be a weekend for the Brits?


J-Kath Says:

Margo…no worri if it is:Scots/Welsh/English etc. …there actually feels like a new, more positive wave engulfing these islands (Johanna, Kyle etc.)…and maybe we should be celebrating Judy Murray for the overall “feel good”….no matter what happens tomorrow. Yes I think Nole will win but I do think Andy will be pretty determined and up for it…even if he fails.


SG1 Says:

Can’t pick Andy in this one. Too many losses when he looked ready to win. He has to win again in a slam for me to have the faith to pick him.

Interestingly, Andy has cruised into some of his recent slam finals and lost. This time, he sort of backed into the final. Andy could be looking at this match as playing with house money. At least I hope he does. Let’s hope he shows Novak some different looks at big moments in the match.


van orten Says:

May the best man win but feel already sorry for murray …


Travis Bickle Says:

Muzza is my second favourite player.
Also, I find his fans on this site genuine and way better people than Nadal;s fans (Fed fans are currently beyond comparison since the level of delusion and bitterness induced by Novak dethroning their idol is unprecedented – I’ll let them repeat their religious chant “Roger is the best of all”)

That being said, I am afraid Muzza’s press conference after his AO defeat last year was not well done on his part, and will provided extra motivation to Novak to be just that much more ruthless in his game tonight. I think Novak did not appreciate Muzza’s comments then and it may be ugly for Andy tonight.

For me personally, this is the preferred GS final: Novak wins – great; Muzza wins – fine too!


skeezer Says:

” Fed fans are currently beyond comparison ”
Yes, they are. So no need to talk about it and try to compare.
17.


skeezer Says:

” Fed fans are currently beyond comparison ”
Yes, they are. So no need to talk about it and try to compare.
17.


van orten Says:

Don’t be delusional skeez .. I beg you ;)


jalep Says:

Gypsy Gal,

Left you a medium length message on your TX bracket. Go read it when you can. Your picking is like a fine wine :D


J-Kath Says:

Travis

Taa for your kind words..on behalf of myself at least….and if I may be allowed to speak for others, imagine they will appreciate being well-considered.

However, You may be doing Nole an injustice. I would like to think that all he wants is to continue his glittering career without carrying grudges – real or imagined.


django Says:

50/ 50 tonight
Good luck


Wog Boy Says:

When I think about Doha final and what nasty things Fedfans were saying about Rafa I wonder how they felt after 6:1, 6:2 in the first two sets, didn’t they realize that man with 14GS titles was right, nobody in his memory played at the level Nole is playing in the last year or so, not even #17. They ended up not with one egg on the face, but with dozen rotten eggs, and they deserved every single one of them.
As for me that was the most important match this AO, final is important too, but more so for Andy than Nole, let’s the better man win.
For those sore losers, pathetic Nolehaters who cheer anybody that plays Nole, they would even cheer Kim Il Sung if he is to play Nole, it is a joy reading your butthurted posts, keep them coming…and use occasionally vaseline as pain relief..


skeezer Says:

^and the hate just keep coming….


Wog Boy Says:

^^I had good teachers, you were here before me..


Wog Boy Says:

^^ sorry if you recognized yourself in my post post, but that’s your problem, not mine..


chrisford1 Says:

Djokovic spent some time practicing today, but went to the quad wheelchair finals to cheer for the American (Wagner) and Australian (Dylan Alcott) – and be at the awards ceremony. And of course tweeted Kerber and Williams on a great match, fine sportsmanship, and congrats to Kerber on her 1st.

Day before though, Djokovic continued one tradition – off to nature to meditate and focus. And philosophize…And go barefoot and hug trees:

“https://www.facebook.com/djokovic.official/photos/a.161904970529029.46755.161367337249459/1070156266370557/?type=3&theater.”

“This tree has been here a long time, much longer than any one of us… Imagine how much energy and wisdom it has! So grateful that I can spend time in the nature. That’s what the day off looks like”. *wink emoticon & #grounding #roots*


AndyMira Says:

CDP!Good afternoon?Good evening?Good night?And good tennis to you..I don’t know which part are you in..but 8 hours to go..although i’m live forever rafa fan but i’m so excited for andy..it will be good to him and for england and scotland if he win..and to all andy’s fan..good luck to you all..and may god bless you guys no matter where you are..


AndyMira Says:

Sorry..forgot to add..to nole’s fan as well..good luck and certainly be happy no matter where you are..


skeezer Says:

Wog boy,
I do take exception when Nole is on a winning streak you are always here talking trash about Fed. When he’s not? Don’t see ya.
I am not one of those Fed fans who talk trash about Nole. Give it a rest and enjoy this winning time honorably with your fav, it won’t last forever.


jane Says:

agree with django
very hard to call this one.
idemooo noleee!
may it be a great match
played (and watched) in good spirits.
cheers all! :)


Wog Boy Says:

skeezer,

In my first post I wasn’t talking about you but you came after me, as usual, if you think I am going to keep quiet then sorry, I won’t.
I am not talking trash about Roger, every my comment I back with facts, do I like him, definitely not, but always try to back up with facts what I am saying. Check the post of most of your fedfans and talk to them.
And yes I am enjoying run of Nole, and it won’t last forever, I don’t need you to tell me that.


Dave Says:

Hey Wog Boy,

Did you get a chance to watch Peaceful Warrior yet? You watching the match live? Or watching it later? No predictions tonight. Just hope Nole can win and show good form.


Daniel Says:

Damm, I’ll only be able to watch the first hour and a half, had a test tomorrow morning. Will only know the winner later on and not be able to chat live with you guys for the whole match. Love Slam finals, pissed of not able to see al of it. But I’ll be here in the beginning. Hope for some excellent tennis and tense moments as usual in Slam finals. Love it!


skeezer Says:

Wog boy,
I don’t speak for other Fed fans, just myself. Are you the authorized spokesmen for Nole’s fans?


Wog Boy Says:

Hi Dave,

Unfortunately not yet, I am busy with Serbian national rugby league team who came here, sponsored by few of us to learn the trade of league game at the right place, but you gave me great idea, I’ll tell them to watch the movie, sounds like the movie that can help them since they are battlers who are doing this for the love of the game, check this artical about them, it is worth reading and definitely worth for Peaceful Worrior:

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/nrl/serbian-rugby-league-team-bringing-plenty-of-passion-to-cabramatta-nines/news-story/0a90405a13737f04a7c77f47ee489576


Wog Boy Says:

Skeezer,
Try to be rational and leave me alone, I wasn’t talking about you or with you, you came after me looking for argument, bad luck, you bumped into the wrong bloke.


Okiegal Says:

Wog Boy……Who do you dislike the most, Fed or Rafa or is it even Steven?? LOL


Tennisfan Says:

Jeez…why are people even mentioning Fed in an article about Andy and Novak?
Anyway, I hope the final will be competitive and exciting. May the best man win!


danica Says:

CF,
you misunderstood me. My pointing to H2H was in regards with tonight’s match. In that, I agree with Andy. It does not matter what was before. Today is a new match. They both start with 50:50. Who will win, no one knows. The predictions of a match are just fun games for fans but nothing more. There are good arguments for either player to win. But who shows up better prepared, calmer and who manages to impose their own game plan will probably win. Everyone predicted Serena to win. Patrich McEnroe talked almost disdainfully about Kerber before the match started giving her no chance whatsoever. Again, the bottom line is, who “feels it” better, who performs better will win. I would love it if it is Nole, but I will not be in the least surprised if the winner is Andy.


Gypsy Gal Says:

Hi Jalep @5.53pm Janary 30th,been and had a look and read your lovely post,and left you a post to go and read when you have time,love the idea for a new monikor lol,CHEERS JALEP AND ENJOY THE FINAL ;))….


Gypsy Gal Says:

Chris Ford1@8.10pm January 30th,could you put that link up properly,as im curious to see the pictures of Novak going barefoot and hugging trees,and meditating,as its also what i like to do in my spare time,and lead a holistic type of life,CHEERS I WOULD BE GRATEFULL….

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