Federer Closes In On Nadal’s No. 1 Ranking, Can He Catch Him?

by Staff | October 15th, 2017, 3:13 pm

Thanks to his Shanghai title, Roger Federer is within 1,960 ranking points of Rafael Nadal for the year-end No. 1 spot.

Had Nadal won today, it would have almost been over, but now Federer is in with a chance.

Ahead, Federer will have:
Basel – 500 points
Paris – 1000 points
ATP Finals – 1500 points

So Federer could max out at 3,000 points should he sweep all three titles. But Nadal, of course, is also scheduled to play and if he does he too will accumulate points and could widen the gap.

“I don’t know what it takes for year-end No. 1 for both of us,” Federer said. “It seems for me that he seems extremely close to clinching it.”

“It’s been a terrific season and I didn’t overplay. Still have energy left. Like I said before the event, I’m happy it paid off again.”

Federer will also have to decide if it’s worth the push. He’ll have to play all three events and after a busier-than-expected year and at age 36, does he want to risk 2018 for a slim chance at No. 1 now?

“I’ll just try to be healthy now, go back to the drawing board when I go back to Switzerland tomorrow with my team and we’ll decide what I’m going to play Basel, Paris, one of those tournaments or both or none, before I go to London because that’s my priority right now.”

And Nadal, who was seen with tape on his left knee today, could also skip either Basel or Paris or both.

But Federer will have to play all three events.

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18 Comments for Federer Closes In On Nadal’s No. 1 Ranking, Can He Catch Him?

Daniel Says:

If Nadal skips Basel, Fed should definitely play Basel, see how it goes, how much energy he spent, if he will win or not and than decide on Paris.

Things can shift pretty quick, if Nadal doesn’t play Baser and loses R16 or QF in Paris (which is totally possible due to his history there and quick surface), he will just gain 90 or 180 pts more. Which will postpone the rankings for WTF where 1500 can be won, or zero if a player doesn’t win a single match.

I believe Fed has to play, he is healthy, he was already unlike with the back injury before Canada final, skipping Cincy and not proper preparation for USO. He should make a push now, it’s his last real shot. Next year he will be 36/37 and everybody will be back: Djoko, MUrrau, Stan, Kei, Raonic. DelPo getting better, Zverev, Thiem, and Kyrgios (ok, long shot) more mature. the tour will get tougher.

Pamela Says:

You made some good points Daniel. I do think at the beginning of the year everyone was around though, right? Only after a few months did they start dropping like flies?

Skorocel Says:

Unfortunately for Fed, the cards were dealt at the UO :-( It’s a pity, as by finishing the year at No. 1, he would’ve not only equalled Sampras’ record of 6 year-end No. 1 finishes & beaten the records for both the oldest No. 1 & year-end No. 1 (a feat highly unlikely to beat for both Nadal and Djoker in the future, btw), but also kept his two biggest rivals at bay by extending his gap in this (unquestionably important) stat… But other than that, I guess we really can’t blame him for anything in this season, can we? With 2 slams, 3 MS 1000 titles (including the IW & Miami combo), a possible record 7th title at the ATP finals in London, and above all 5 straight wins vs. Nadal – I guess we can be safe to say that life’s been good for Roger in 2017…

skeezer Says:

Skorocel! Where you been?

Skorocel Says:

@skeezer: On a vacation quietly watching Fed’s resurgence in 2017 :-) Mind you, I’m still not gonna forgive him these painful losses to Nadal (be it the FO 2008 or Wimby 2008), and frankly, even at 15-23, their H2H is still decisively in favor of the Spaniard (particularly when it comes to slams), but as I’ve already said, this season has been almost absurdly kind to Fed (injured Djoker & Murray or not), so I’m not complaining :-) If only he could snatch that year-end no 1. ranking from Nadal… but that would be one wish too many I guess…

Daniel Says:

Skeeze, I Rhianna song came to my mid: ‘Where have you been…?” LOL

Glad your are back Skorocel. Damm, you just remind me how long we’ve been around here. 10+ years.

Skorocel Says:

@Daniel: I reckon it is 11 years plus (at least on my side), so yeah, it’s been a while :-) You’ve definitely been one of the regulars here, making this forum a lively place courtesy of your posts, so keep them coming! I’ll probably take the “one at a time” approach :-)

the_mind_reels Says:

Just saw that Nadal is skipping Basel citing knee injury…

the_mind_reels Says:

Seems Fed could play Basel if he’s feeling fresh enough and have a shot at adding another 500 points to his tally and then sit out Paris, where I don’t expect Nadal to win given his relatively poor record there. This would make for a WTF showdown for the #1 spot.

Basically, a rehashing of what Daniel posted above, but we now know Nadal won’t play at least until Paris, and even that is perhaps a stretch for him given that it will take a toll on him for London to play Paris.

Daniel Says:

TMH, if Fed doesn´t play Paris he will have to win Basel, WTF without losing a match in RR and Nadal doesn’t win a single match in Paris and WTF.

Fed only chance at #1 is playing Paris. If he skips it is because he gave up.

The choice he is probably making is, do I make a push to win next three tiurnament, risking injury or gettin spent in WTF and not worth because Nadal can do well in Paris and WTF as well? Or gave up #1 (possibly his lkast real chance) to win WTF and be fresh and not injurt for next year AO.

He will have to choose pretty soon.

Alon Says:

So the plot thickens…
Nadal just withdrew from Basel.
So what are your thoughts everybody?
Does Fed have a realistic chance at clinching the no. 1 spot now or will he follow suit and withdraw as well?
Any thoughts?

Okiegal Says:

I think he has a big chance…….Rafa might be done for the rest of the year…….

Watching Foggy and Jazzy…… first set to the Italian stallion!!

Okiegal Says:

Of course this is a replay from earlier today……so don’t anyone pop up and tell me who won……don’t want the match ruined……

gonzalowski Says:

with current data, I give 30 Fed, 70 Rafa.

Gogo Says:

Surely Fed has to give it a shot. He had an easy time of it in Shanghai. Due to the injureis, his time at the US hardcours was also not to exerting, due to the injury. So really should have enough in the tank for 3 tournaments. Thenk he can taek almost 2 months off before the Aussie open.

Of course only he can say how stresfull it really is for him at 36.

John Says:

Fed has to pretty much win it all to finish year end no 1

John Says:

Even winning all, he still depends on what Nadal does

tennisfan Says:

Don’t think its possible unless Nadal withdraws for the rest of the year.

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