Djokovic v Alcaraz, Ruud v Zverev; French Open SF Picks And Pans
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On paper, the fact that Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev all made the semifinals of the French Open should surprise no one.
Three of the four made the semifinals last year with only Alcaraz getting picked off by Zverev before the German suffered that gruesome right ankle injury.
Zverev, to his credit, has worked really hard this year to get back into form and, like Ruud, came into Paris with some lackluster results. But this week he’s been back to his consistent self.
Same goes for Ruud who desperately needed a spark and while Estoril wasn’t it, maybe that semifinal in Rome was.
Alcaraz needs absolutely no spark. He is a spark. And Djokovic we knew despite a poor clay run would rise up in the best-of-5 format.
So it’s a really strong final four, one that I didn’t think we’d see based on the flurry of first week upsets.
Daniil Medvedev laid an egg almost as expected. My final pick Jannik Sinner proved he’s got some issues between the ears and others like Andrey Rublev, Cameron Norrie, Felix Auger-Aliassime all fell by the wayside in surprise fashion.
So what’s left? Just three matches and of course the big showdown we all wanted to see: Djokovic v Alcaraz.
On to my picks.
Novak Djokovic v Carlos Alcaraz
They met once in a good one at the Madrid Masters last year, also in the semifinals, and I’m sure that has got Novak’s attention. Alcaraz won that on a fast track at altitude.
This will be slower, but dry, and in best-of-5.
Given the season and recent results, Alcaraz has to be the favorite here. He’s a better player than he was in Madrid last year and I don’t Novak is as sharp.
Alcaraz pounded a very adept clay courter in Stefanos Tsitsipas and ripped the heart out of his buddy Lorenzo Musetti.
He’s faster and hits harder than Djokovic, and he has the momentum. Djokovic might still be ahead in defense, smarts, service return and perhaps serve. All advantages he will need.
Using angles to get Alcaraz moving then hitting to the open court. Djokovic backhand up high to Alcaraz could pay off and of course serving and serving out wide, getting the 20-year-old off the court and on defense early.
Alcaraz can misfire and can get frustrated. He’ll lapse for a spell and in a best-of-5 there’s a better chance of it happening. And when it does, Djokovic has to dig in.
It’s a lot to ask and just six sets from 23 and with either Ruud/Zverev waiting (a virtual win), Djokovic will bring his best stuff.
I just think Alcaraz is too strong right now. Djokovic doesn’t have the raw power of a Sinner to keep Alcaraz off balance with fire-strike tennis. If Alcaraz gets a lot of first serves in, that’s going to spell trouble to Novak who is going to find himself struggling to hold at times and eventually he’s going to get broken.
The weather should be warm and dry which I think helps Novak. But what a match it should be. Finally!
The Pick: Alcaraz in 4
Casper Ruud v Alexander Zverev
I really want to pick Zverev in this one as in general he’s just the better all-around player, head-to-toe. He’s also won two of three from the Norwegian.
I just don’t know if he’s ready to take that next step this early in his comeback. He’s had some good results in Paris beating Frances Tiafoe, Grigor Dimitrov and then Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Good wins all if them but not great clay wins — Etcheverry might get there one day. Ruud would be a great clay win.
That said, Ruud isn’t an elite, future No. 1 type player. He’s still stuck like a Tiafoe, Dimitrov or Etcheverry to winning ATP 250 events and going a few rounds at a Masters. But unlike them, he has shown at the higher levels that he’ll beat the guys he should be beat — he got by a gassed Holger Rune for his first Slam Top 12 win!
Ruud’s got a tomahawk forehand and serve along with an okay backhand and good court sense. The serve-forehand combo will win him a lot of money and a lot of titles, and perhaps even a Slam or two.
Zverev with his 6-foot-6 frame and wingspan is one of the premier defenders on tour. Especially off the backhand wing which is his money shot.
If Zverev can get into backhand-to-backhand rallies and keep that wonky serve in check, he’ll have a serious chance. And if he can hold his nerves, he’ll win. But can he?
That’s where I’m not sold. I know Ruud will show up but Zverev I just don’t know if he can close it out. Is that US Open collapse still rattling around in there? Maybe last year’s ankle turn has cleared the slate — he sure looks good so far.
So while I think Zverev is the better player, I’m picking Ruud here.
The Pick: Ruud in 5
If there was to be a surprise on the day, it would be an easy straight-set win for Djokovic. I could see Alcaraz hammering Novak and the Ruud-Zverev match could have any outcome.
Obviously the winner of the first match will be the big favorite in the final so for Ruud and Zverev perhaps the pressure is off a little, and that might really help the German who could really come full circle after the injury last year and win his first Slam, denying Novak. That’s how Hollywood would write it. But Paris is a long way from California.
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