Novak Djokovic v Casper Ruud For History In The French Open Final, Who’s The Pick?
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Novak Djokovic is on the brink of yet another monumental achievement: passing Rafael Nadal to win his 23rd career Grand Slam title and pass both Rafa and Roger Federer to win his third Career Slam.
All that and more is just three sets away. By all accounts, Djokovic cleared his toughest hurdle teaching Carlos Alcaraz how to handle big moments against big players on Friday. Now, only Casper Ruud stands in the way.
Ruud blew out an ailing Alexander Zverev 6-3, 6-4, 6-0 and earlier in the week he knocked out the favored Holger Rune for his best career ranking win in a Slam.
Few, if anyone, picked Ruud to return to the title match. After a breakout 2022, the mild-mannered Scandinavian didn’t put up any convincing results the first four months or so, and thusly he was all but forgotten in the talks of serious threats to win or even go deep in Paris.
But Casper collected some wins in Rome and certainly took advantage of things in Paris where he got a tired Rune and Zverev who apparently was fighting a thigh issue.
That said, one could argue Djokovic got lucky with Alcaraz. I think he did. Had the 20-year-old not crumbled under the weight, he looked in prime position to take the match given he had just won the second set.
That aside, looking at the data it’s not good for the 24-year-old from Norway.
Djokovic has won all four meetings and all in straight sets, including two on clay both in the Rome semifinals, most recently last year. This will be their first best-of-5 showdown, a format that only helps Novak.
Ruud has never won a set in eight tries against Djokovic, now he has to win three in one match?
Ruud does have a chance.
Novak had that arm issue going on just before Alcaraz locked up. And then Djokovic also fell flat the last time he had a match this big, that being the 2021 US Open final. This one isn’t on that level, but to me, he won’t get another chance this good to win the French Open.
The good news is, Ruud is a comfortable match-up for Novak. Ruud has a huge serve, huge forehand but the backhand isn’t a weapon. So whenever Novak gets in any sort of distress he just needs to direct the ball to Casper’s backhand and he’ll be back in the point.
So look for a lot of backhand-to-backhand rallies. For Novak, this should just be a backhand drill. That’s all he needs to do. No dropshots, no big forehands. Just backhand to backhand until Ruud falls apart.
Ruud has to and likely will take more chances. He’s a smart player who knows what’s coming. So big serve, big forehand and big on the return. He needs to get offensive and offensive early. And the backhand just has to hold up.
But unless Novak is injured or flat, this should be a pretty comfortable path to 23.
The Pick: Djokovic in (2)3
Regardless of what happens — unless Djokovic sustains a serious injury — we might have to press pause on all the talk of the young bucks taking over.
Alcaraz couldn’t deal with the pressure. Rune isn’t ready. Lorenzo Musetti is flashy but not strong enough. Jannik Sinner seems to have inner doubts and then there’s that middle generation of Denis Shapovalov, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev. I’m starting to wonder if there just won’t be any Slams in that group.
So outside of Medvedev and Ruud and of course Alcaraz, who I think will get right, Djokovic could do some damage the next 2-3 Slams. That assault starts tomorrow.
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