Australian Open Men's Draw Analysis

The "Three Boy Kings" in Andy Roddick, Roger Federer, and Juan Carlos Ferrero dominated men's tennis in 2003 (along with their "Grandfather" Andre Agassi), and the 2004 Australian Open will be an early indicator as who will remain in the hunt for No. 1, and who will fall by the wayside.

This year's Melbourne stop will also be a return-to-form for a number of top players who missed some or all of 2003 with injuries, surgeries, or even self-imposed exiles. Those returning from injury to the big stage include former No. 1 Marat Safin, apparently healed from the wrist problems that kept him off tour the latter part of 2003; Swedish 2001 Australian Open champion Thomas Johansson, who missed all of last year after knee surgery; Greg Rusedski, looking healthy after multiple injuries in the latter half of last year; and Lleyton Hewitt, who went into a self-imposed exile after last year's US Open to pout over his feud (and court case) with ATP officials, and to prepare for the year-ending Davis Cup final (leading Australia to the title).

An intriguing number of players are also suffering from some level of injury entering the event, including Andy Roddick pulling from the Kooyong exhibition this week with severe blisters (who cares), Younes El Aynaoui pulling from Kooyong with a shooting-pain foot injury, Carlos Moya pulling from the Sydney final with a bad ankle, and Top 10 Argentines Guillermo Coria and David Nalbandian pulling from ATP events over the last two weeks with injury, though they seem to be okay now.

Looking fit through it all is the 33-year-old defending champion Agassi, who has been in the habit of getting out of the gates early in January during his career. Here is a quick and dirty Tennis-X look at the four sections of the Australian Open draw, and who will potentially meet who during the two weeks in Melbourne:

TOP QUARTER
Potential 3rd rd. matches: (1)Andy Roddick vs. (27)Taylor Dent, (18)Younes El Aynaoui vs. (16)Sjeng Schalken, (12)Nicolas Massu vs. (21)Mardy Fish, and (30)Arnaud Clement vs. (7)Carlos Moya
Dangerous floaters: Fernando Gonzalez, Marat Safin, Todd Martin, Ivo Karlovic, James Blake

Call this the big-serving American section between A-Rod, Dent, Fish, Martin, and we'll throw Blake in there to give him a confidence boost. There could be some injury fallout in this section, with El Aynaoui pulling out of last week's Kooyong exhibition with a bad foot, and Safin's wrist untested in best-of-five set conditions. World No. 1 Roddick was handed no easy draw, with Gonzalez in his opener, and a third round with Dent, who has shown he can match his compatriot power for power. Safin faces the scampering Brian Vahaly in his opener, Fish faces the giant "Dr." Ivo Karlovic, Clement will have a tester against Russian Nikolay Davydenko, while Blake could start his season off right with an opening upset over the injured Moya, who spained his right ankle in the Saturday Sydney final. You could be looking at a Blake-Fish fourth round, and a Fish vs. Roddick or Dent quarterfinals in this all-American section.

SECOND QUARTER
Potential 3rd rd. matches: (4)Andre Agassi vs. (29)Vince Spadea, (19)Gustavo Kuerten vs. (13)Paradorn Srichaphan, (9)Sebastien Grosjean vs. (20)Tommy Robredo, and (32)Robby Ginepri vs. (6)Rainer Schuettler
Dangerous floaters: Thomas Enqvist, Ivan Ljubicic, Mikhail Youzhny, Dominik "The Dominator" Hrbaty, and Nicolas Escude

A deceivingly difficult section, featuring last year's champion Agassi and runner-up Schuettler. Add Grosjean, and you've got three Top 10 players, Srichaphan who remains in the Top 15, and the healthy former No. 1 Kuerten. This section will be a home crowd favorite with three Aussie wildcards in Todd Larkham (vs. Agassi), towering Chris "Penthouse" Guccione and Alun Jones who face each other. Tough opening rounders include Spadea vs. Enqvist, Grosjean vs. Youzhny, and Schuettler vs. Swedish fast-court rookie Robin Soderling. A rematch of last year's final could come in the quarterfinals, but don't keep your fingers crossed because: a) It was a horrible match last year, and b) Because Schuettler will likely not make it that far, with Escude, Ginepri, and Grosjean standing in his path.


THIRD QUARTER
Potential 3rd rd. matches: (5)Guillermo "The Wizard" Coria vs. (26)Al Costa, (17)Martin Verkerk vs. (10)Mark Philippoussis, (14)Jiri Novak vs. (24)Max "The Beast" Mirnyi, and (28)Feliciano Lopez vs. (3)Juan Carlos Ferrero
Dangerous floaters: Crafty Frenchman Cyril Saulnier, Wayne Arthurs, Greg "I Didn't Do It" Rusedski, and Thomas and Joachim "I'm Dating Lleyton's Sister" Johansson

If Coria is truly injured (his stomach is okay, really), this quarter could open up nicely for a Philippoussis, a Rusedski, or a Ferrero, if the Spaniard could figure out how to end his current seven-match losing streak. Call this section the Bomb Squad Quarter between the serving prowess of Verkerk, Flipper, The Beast, Arthurs, Mario "Baby Goran" Ancic, and the Johansson not-brothers (Thomas and Joachim). Intriguing first round match-ups include Coria vs. the underrated Saulnier, Rusedski vs. Costa, Verkerk vs. Alex Corretja, Philippoussis vs. T.Johansson, and Lopez vs. Al Martin in a tough all-Spanish encounter.


BOTTOM QUARTER
Potential 3rd rd. matches: (8)David Nalbandian vs. (31)Wayne Ferreira, (22)Agustin Calleri vs. (11)Tim Henman, (15)Lleyton Hewitt vs. (23)Felix Mantilla, and (25)Jonas Bjorkman vs. (2)Roger Federer.
Dangerous floaters: French wunderkind Richard Gasquet, Guillermo "Test Me, I'm Clean" Canas, Rafael "The Prodigy" Nadal, and Aussie teen hope Todd Reid

Some exciting match-ups could come out of this section, such as Hewitt vs. Nadal in the third round, and Nalbandian vs. Gasquet second round, and...ahh, never mind, this section sucks, just look for Hewitt vs. Federer and Nalbandian vs. Henman in the fourth round. We'll cut to the chase. Reid, who went on a tear during the first two weeks of the Aussie swing, was granted a great draw in Uzbekistan wildcard Vadim Kutsenko in the first round, then the No. 25 seed Bjorkman in the second round to earn a meeting with Federer.

If the seedings hold, you'll be looking at quarterfinal match-ups of (1)Roddick vs. (7)Moya, (4)Agassi vs. (6)Schuettler, (5)Coria vs. (3)Ferrero, and (8)Nalbandian vs. (2)Federer. But when was the last time that happened? Short answer: never. Between potentially still-existing injuries to three of those players, and the abundance of big-serving floaters and tough first round match-ups in the draw, don't be surprised if some early-year hijinks produce a No. 27 Dent, unseeded Hrbaty, No. 15 seed Hewitt or unseeded Safin in the final come the second Sunday.

AUSSIE OPEN MONDAY SCHEDULE
Men:
(6)Schettler vs. Soderling, (1)Roddick vs. Gonzalez, (4)Agassi vs. Larkham, (19)Kuerten vs. van Lottum, (7)Moya vs. Blake, (WC)Guccione vs. (WC)Jones, (9)Grosjean vs. Youzhny, Safin vs. Vahaly, (27)Dent vs. Verdasco, (18)El Aynaoui vs. Blanco, (13)Srichaphan vs. Acasuso, (WC)Escude vs. H.T.-Lee, Golmard vs. Portas, Mahut vs. Berdych, (30)Clement vs. Davydenko, (12)Massu vs. Nieminen, (32)Ginepri vs. Horna, (20)Robredo vs. Gaudio, Labadze vs. Chela, Hrbaty vs. Saretta, Ljubicic vs. Tursunov, Ulihrach vs. Burgsmuller, Beck vs. Koubek, Melzer vs. Behrend, (16)Schalken vs. Carlsen, (21)Fish vs. Karlovic, (29)Spadea vs. Enqvist, T.Martin vs. Dupuis, O.Hernandez vs. N.Lapentti, Gambill vs. Carraz, Patience vs. Andreev, and Ferrer vs. Muller.
Women:
(1)Henin-Hardenne vs. Lukaszewicz, (17)Shaughnessy vs, Pratt, (7)Dementieva vs. Jankovic, (4)Mauresmo vs. Chuang, (WC)Stosur vs. Talaja, (31)Tanasugarn vs. Granville, Molik vs. Bachmann, (10)Petrova vs. Kapros, (5)Davenport vs. Dragomir-Ilie, Mandula vs. Leon Garcia, (24)Maleeva vs. Reeves, Vento-Kabchi vs. Czink, Pin vs. Garbin, Pennetta vs. Serra Zanetti, Morigami vs. Pelletier, (32)Zuluaga vs. Asagoe, Musgrave vs. Dominikovic, Dellacqua vs. Cervanova, Perebiynis vs. Schaul, Jidkova vs. Diaz-Olivia, (16)Serna vs. Santangelo, Cargill vs. Medina Garrigues, Grande vs. Craybas, (26)Pisnik vs. Fedak, (30)Kuznetsova vs. Perry, Callens vs. Black, (11)Zvonareva vs. Ondraskova, (15)Hantuchova vs. Serra Zanetti, (21)Bovina vs. Kleinova, (19)Daniilidou vs. Hopkins, C.Fernandez vs. Schett, and Loit vs. Marrero.

NEWS, NOTES, QUOTES, AND BARBS
Sweden's Magnus Norman is to undergo further surgery on his hips and will be out of action for up to two months. For the operation, Norman will return to Nashville, Tennessee where he underwent surgery on August 21, 2001. "It came as a bit of a shock," Norman told Swedish news agency TT on Friday. "At the same time it was a relief to find out what was wrong. They've told me that the chances that the surgery will go well are good. The prognosis is that I have to rest for about two months, so hopefully I'll be back in time for the claycourt season."...Kim Clijsters and Lindsay Davenport are a go to play at the Aussie Open, however someone better tell the Belgian to quit doing the splits, otherwise that bone bruise won't heal...This is the last year Heineken is a major sponsor, so drink up if you are in Melbourne. Next year the Dutch beer maker may bail from the event or downgrade their sponsorship...After a Melbourne weekend during which the climate contained all four seasons, temperatures are suppose to heat up during the week to 30 celsius, which translates to "hot" in the U.S...Remember it's summer in Australia, so the schools are out and the kids are allowed run amok in the streets...Mark Philippoussis says new squeeze Delta Gundrum is just a friend. Ms. Delta, by the way, is a 19-year-old pop singer who likes to hold Mark's arse...Andy Roddick's a big favorite here in Oz, while Lleyton Hewitt, well sort of...Patrick Rafter, who dumped his Bermuda home for Sydney, is bored and a tad bit on the heavy side. Sorry to hear, mate...Poor Carlos Moya, who as a former finalist got no love in getting a Tuesday start despite suffering a sprained ankle from the Sydney final. Brad Gilbert, coach of Andy Roddick, should be fired up to know that next Monday Metallica will be in town for "Australia's Big Day Out" festival. Of course Brad's attendance depends on Fernando Gonzalez, who has a good chance to take out A-Rod...Todd Reid's game resembles a poor man's Lleyton Hewitt...Why is Mats Wilander writing 2,000 word stories for The Age newspaper?...TabSports is on-site -- again at Melbourne Park, offering "punters" an avenue for losing money during the Open.