Tennis-X Mens French Open Preview
Posted on May 27, 2006
By Richard Vach, Tennis-X.com Senior Writer
Here's a quick-and-dirty look at the four quarters of the 2006 French Open draw, who is likely to go deep into week two, and who should book the early flights:
Top QuarterSeeds: (1) Roger Federer, (7) Tommy Robredo, (12) Mario "Baby Goran" Ancic, (13) Nicolas Kiefer, (17) Robby Ginepri, (20) Tomas Berdych, (26) Jose Acasuso, (32) Nicolas Massu
Floaters: Xavier "X-Man" Malisse, Filippo Volandri, Jurgen "Tuna" Melzer, Al Montanes, Feliciano "F-Lo" Lopez, Fabrice "The Magician" Santoro
Are you truly wondering about anyone else in this quarter?
The world No. 1 Federer was drawn against Arnaud Clement, a player he had lost to three times in his pre-"Mighty Fed" days, but no sooner was the draw made Friday that word around town was that Clement was pulling out with injury. Don't blame him after he saw that draw.
Now the Swiss' road to a successful semifinal emergence will feature a lucky loser in his opener, likely a qualifier in the second round, (32) Massu in the 3rd round, (20) Berdych or (13) Kiefer in the 4th round, and either the hot-handed (7) Robredo or (26) Acasuso in the quarters.
Openers of interest in the top quarter include (32) Massu vs. the X-Man, who beat him at Roland Garros in their only previous meeting; (20) Berdych vs. F-Lo, who beat him in their only previous meeting; (13) Kiefer vs. Tuna Melzer, who he's beaten in all six of their meetings, though the last four have gone three sets (that Austrian is due!); (17) Ginepri vs. Montanes, who he lost to months ago in Houston; and (26) Acasuso vs. the slicing and dicing Magician, who he beat in three sets in their lone career encounter. Santoro vs. Acasuso should be worth the price of admission, or at least a month of your cable bill.
If a hot-handed banger like Berdych, or a grinder like Robredo or Acasuso can't take Federer out, could they run-out some four- or five-setters to soften him up for his semifinal opponent emerging from the second quarter?
Second Quarter
Seeds: (3) David Nalbandian, (6) Nikolay Davydenko, (10) Gaston Gaudio, (16) Jarkko Nieminen, (21) Sebastien Grosjean, (24) Juan Carlos Ferrero, (30) Carlos Moya, (31) Dmitry Tursunov
Floaters: Jiri Novak, Tim Henman, Andrei Pavel, Vince Spadea
Call this the washed-up quarter, between Gaudio who's lost his mind, Ferrero and Moya who've lost the confidence to hang with Top 10 players, and Grosjean who's lost the ability to stay uninjured.
It's a club that David Nalbandian is hoping to stay out of.
The Gods of the Draw have rolled out the red carpet for Nalbandian, who if he can't at least match his previous best effort by emerging into the semis, should return to Argentina and take up farming. Seeds in Nalbandian's path are the clay-challenged Tursunov, then Grosjean or Nieminen, then in the quarters he'll likely receive his first challenge from the 2006 semifinalist Davydenko.
Openers to look for are (31) Tursunov vs. the resurgent back-from-injury Novak, winner to likely face Henman; (21) Grosjean vs. Pavel, who has won two of their three meetings; and Davydenko vs. Spadea, who he beat in their last meeting but has astoundingly lost three of four against.
Watch Nalbandian, who will take a career step forwards or backwards at Roland Garros.
Third Quarter
Seeds: (4) Ivan Ljubicic, (5) Andy Roddick, (11) Radek Stepanek, (15) David Ferrer, (18) Thomas Johansson, (19) Marcos "Bombs Over" Baghdatis, (27) Olivier "The Roach" Rochus, (28) Fernando "Hot Sauce" Verdasco
Floaters: Al Martin, Al Portas, Guillermo "G-Lo" Garcia-Lopez, Juan Ignacio Chela
This quarter is like a box of chocolates -- that you throw out before opening.
Ljubicic can inexplicably thrill or chill on clay, as evidenced by his results this year: quarterfinal at Monte Carlo, early exit at Rome, early exit at Hamburg, stellar performances at the World Team Cup.
Roddick was an iffy proposition even before twisting his ankle at the WTC; Stepanek is an opportunist at best on clay, Johansson is too soon off his eye injury, Baghdatis is bad-datis on clay, Rochus is underpowered, and Verdasco got hurt this week at the WTC.
Potential upsets in the first round are (5) Roddick vs. A.Martin; an all-Spanish in G-Lo vs. (15) Ferrer, who if he doesn't go for the throat-clutcher should rightfully emerge from this quarter; and the injured (28) Verdasco vs. Chela, who has won two of their three career meetings.
Also watch (19) Bagdatis vs. Portas. The 32-year-old "Dropshot Dragon" Portas lost his first five matches of the year (all on clay), but during the past couple months has found his feet with a 3rd-rounder at Barcelona and a semifinal at Estoril.
Look for a first-time French Open semifinalist, and no more, out of this lot.
Bottom Quarter
Seeds: (2) Rafael Nadal, (8) James Blake, (9) Fernando "Gonzo" Gonzalez, (14) Lleyton Hewitt, (22) Dominik "The Dominator" Hrbaty, (23) Tommy Haas, (25) Gael "Force" Monfils, (29) Paul-Henri Mathieu
Floaters: Nicolas Almagro, Andy Murray, Rainer Schuettler, Marat Safin, Jan Hernych, Robin Soderling
Nadal's road out of this quarter starts with an opener against the dangerous Soderling (hey, he beat Davydenko on clay this year), then a qualifier before (29) Mathieu gets another chance to choke in front of the home crowd, then (22) The Dominator in the 4th round, then in the quarters a who-the-hell-knows picker from either (9) Gonzo, Almagro, Blake (dream on Yanks!), or Safin (dream on Safin supporters and Safinettes -- at least you'll get to see if his knee holds through a couple rounds).
Openers to watch in the bottom quarter are (8) Blake vs. Paradorn "The Thai Fighter" Srichaphan (only if you want to watch what a great draw the American got) with the winner to face the fearsome break-out player Almagro; (25) Gael Force vs. Murray in a match-up of next-gen tour buddies; (23) Haas vs. Schuettler in an all-German, with Haas attempting to rebound from his Hamburg allergy attack; (9) Gonzo vs. Safin (Marat leads the meetings 2-0, with this the first on clay) in the biggest of big-hitting encounters; and (14) Hewitt vs. Hernych (upset alert) with the Aussie entering with an 0-1 record on clay this year, and a bad ankle.
Hard to bet against Nadal winning his opener for his 54th consecutive win, breaking Guillermo Vilas' record, and defending his title to break Bjorn Borg's record of teenage titles (the title would put Nadal at 17, trumping to the legendary Swede's 16). Federer reaching the final could be another more difficult story.
We can only hope the Swiss reaches the dirt finale just so we can see how truly deep the Spaniard is in his head.
"It could get into my mind," says Federer of his losses to Nadal. "I could start thinking, 'I can't play against this guy, his game doesn't suit me.' I could start accepting the fact that I have been losing against him, but that would be a bad thing for me to do."
Or have already done.
Returning champs in this year's field are Nadal (2005), Gaudio (2004), Ferrero (2003), and Moya (1998).
Richard Vach is a senior writer for Tennis-X.com who can currently be seen on The Tennis Channel's "Tennis Insiders: Super Insiders" episodes, and was recently awarded "Best Hard News" story for 2005 by the United States Tennis Writers Association.