Why Roger Federer Will Beat Rafael Nadal Tomorrow In The Australian Open Semifinals
by Sean Randall | January 25th, 2012, 10:04 am
  • 457 Comments

From the title of this post it’s not hard to put two-and-two together and conclude I’m picking Roger Federer to beat Rafael Nadal Thursday in the first of two mega Australian Open semifinals on back-to-back mornings.

Nadal, of course, has owned Federer in this transcendent rivalry. He’s won 17 of 26 meetings and most importantly seven of the nine that they have played in Grand Slams including that incredible 5-set win back at the 2009 Australian Open final.

That’s 7-2 in Grand Slams. 7-2!

However, in this case I’ll go against conventional wisdom. Sure, Nadal has dominated Federer. Roger got Rafa in London when Nadal was ailing with something or other. He beat him the year before at that same London event but Rafa had just won a third set tiebreak over Andy Murray the day before. And in fact, digging deeper Federer hasn’t beaten Nadal in a best of five set match since the pre-roof days at Wimbledon in 2007.

That all said, now I’m thinking I should change my pick.

But I won’t. Federer has looked exceptionally strong at this event, even better than Nadal who lost his first set against Tomas Berdych Tuesday in a very tough four-setter.

The strategy for each guy is simple. Nadal will force Federer to hit those high backhands. Federer will rely on his serve to set up the forehand and attack the Spaniard. And handle forehand-to-backhand exhange. Of the two, Nadal’s strategy is the easiest to execute as it’s part of his natural game.

What I like about Roger, though, is that he’s won 24 straight matches, a streak that could have stretched even longer had Djokovic not ripped a winner down match point at the US Open.

His prior Grand Slam loss was took place when he was up two sets on Tsonga but choked it away.

At the French, well, that’s a no win against Nadal on clay.

Fact is, despite crushing losses to Tsonga and Djokovic in his last two Slams, he somehow has still kept it together.

Meanwhile, Rafa has complained about a sore shoulder and a now bad knee – and in fairness Federer did have that back issue – and he hasn’t won a title since the clay season.

I’ll give him a pass for his dismal performance at the the London Masters but the other night Berdych should have pushed Rafa even further the scoreline indicated. Then again he did what Berdych often does and that’s fold.

Still, Nadal has looked surprisingly good in Australia and it won’t be easy for anyone to beat the former No. 1. And I don’t think injuries or fatigue (from the Berdych match) factor in here at all. What does is that Federer is just playing better, more confident tennis at the moment than Rafa – my opinion.

When Nadal beat Federer in 2009, Rafa was a better at that time. I just don’t think he’s that same player – tinkering with his game by adding weight to his racquet? I’ll admit that Federer isn’t either. At age 30 Fed’s no longer the force he once was but knowing that I think he’ll rise up to the challenge Thursday.

The reality is at his age this could very well be Federer’s last stand. And I think here he makes it and wins in four sets.

Set your alarm because the match starts at 3:30am ET on ESPN2. It promises to be a good one!

THURSDAY AUSTRALIAN OPEN SCHEDULE

Rod Laver Arena 11:00 AM Start Time
Bob Bryan (USA)[1] v. Robert Lindstedt (SWE)[7]
Mike Bryan (USA)[1] Horia Tecau (ROU)[7]
Not Before:1:30 PM
Kim Clijsters (BEL)[11] v. Victoria Azarenka (BLR)[3]
Maria Sharapova (RUS)[4] v. Petra Kvitova (CZE)[2]

Rod Laver Arena 7:30 PM Start Time
Roger Federer (SUI)[3] v. Rafael Nadal (ESP)[2]
Martina Navratilova (USA) v. Martina Hingis (SUI)
Goran Ivanisevic (CRO) Pat Cash (AUS)


Also Check Out:
Venus Beats Serena, Joins Jankovc, Zvonareva in Doha Championships Semifinals
Rafael Nadal Visits The Fishes At Melbourne Aquarium [Video]
Federer v. Djokovic, Who’s the Pick? Women’s SFs at Australian Open
Nadal Seeks 7th Barcelona Crown Sunday Against Ferrer; Azarenka v Sharapova In Scream-y Stuttgart Final
Stosur Stomps Out Wozniacki’s Bid to Clinch No. 1

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457 Comments for Why Roger Federer Will Beat Rafael Nadal Tomorrow In The Australian Open Semifinals

Nabil Says:

Well this is a risky pick but ya Roger has a good chance to beat Rafa tomorrow coz he is probably the best player of the tournament so far , so it will be good match for us as a fan. My pick is Roger in 4 but if it goes to five it will be Rafa match.


Gannu Says:

Fcuk….ghosh sean u jinxed federer…i am damn disappointed.,,,,thats the last bad omen that i would want…Oh God u are my last hope now ;-)


margot Says:

Gannu: lol now I’m basking in knowledge Sean won’t give Andy a snowflake in hell’s chance :)


tennisfan Says:

Sean, I agree with you that Roger does have a chance.If we look at their game stats till now (Federer/Nadal Epic Semi- Final – What do Australian Open Stats Indicate?- Part 1 http://bit.ly/z4jhyP ), we can see that their weak points have been completely different till now at AO! Roger will be damn motivated to win this one!


Nims Says:

Looks like people have not learnt the lesson on predicting Rafa vs Roger matches, just like Roger has never learnt how to play Rafa. It would have made more sense if the title names have been reversed. It should be an quick evening for Rafa.

Rafa’s FH looks scary and his serve to the Right handers BH has been clicking to perfection against Berd.

Rogers FH cannot penetrate this court. Rafa probably needs to hit 50 UFE for Roger to win this match. I’m not sure if it will happen in my lifetime.


Fedfan Says:

As the name implies, I would love for Fed to pull this off. Unfortunately that will not happen. The Nadal gameplan has worked since 2008 and nothing has changed in this regard.
Nadal in 4.


Brando Says:

50/50 affair all the way in this one.

Roger needs his 1st serve in % to be higher than it has been in order to win.

Rafa needs to play like he did mid way 3rd set, throughout 4th set.

IF rafa starts well he should edge it, while roger needs to close the deal asap.

He cannot do what he did against nole at the USO where he plays awesome for first 2 sets, decides to go for a walk in the next 2, and then hits paranoia city in the 5th!


leo vixen Says:

I’m a big Rafa fan, but I like Roger a lot as well. I think Roger will take this because he has been playing sublime tennis with a lot of confidence. He has to keep his brain from freezing out there. Rafa was very nervous against Berdych in the beginning and looked too vulnerable although once he won second set he started playing great tennis. This is all because Rafa has lost his confidence…shocking, isn’t it? I don’t think Rafa is confident enough to play in a final yet and another loss might do him in for the rest of the year. Who the hell knows? Good luck to them and may the better player win and kick the ass of either of those other two wankers in the top half of the draw, whoever it is!


Kimberly Says:

I think a big factor is rafa mentality. In his pressed he seems content to be in the semis, take a month off, and try to go an a tear between Indian wells and wimbledon. He sounds like he does not feel ready to win both regardig where his game is at and his mind. Or he is sandbagging and he really is. I don’t know.

One thing for sure, we all know what rafa strategy will be. Whether it works or not tomorrow is going to be the question.


madmax Says:

Roger should and I believe, will win.

Roger will win.

Come on!


Ajet Says:

Nobody’s more nervous than me at the moment. Can hardly breathe! Am shivering with tension and excitement, feeling feverish already. Sh*t!

I hope roger beats rafa to change my nervousness into happy outburst of relief!
May there be lots of milk and honey(or wine or whatever sean likes), and may his prediction come true! Though I’m anxious beyond words for fed’s opponent being rafa again in AO, but I at least feel fed will turn the tables this time, and finally beat nadal. Kinda wishful gut feeling, or whatever you may call that. Holy Crap and Bloody slap to me!

I HATE TENNIS!

allez federer, ALLEZ!!!


Ajet Says:

I really dunno what am saying, so pardon.
Hoping for a federer win and nothing else.


Ajet Says:

The only thing I can do to survive a possible heart attack tommorrow is to engage myself in everything else except tennis, but it’s impossible! how can I in my senses ignore a fed vs rafa tommorrow???
whoever created tennis, f*** him!!!
I WANT PEACE!!!!!!…..


Ajet Says:

How can I escape the roger-rafa match thought??? any solution anyone???


Kimberly Says:

See Ajet, you can lowball it. I pretty much expect rafa to lose too, so if he wins great, if he doesn’t, it’s what I expect. However, if you don’t choose to lowball it, them you have to sweat. Vegas is favoring fed.


tfouto Says:

Kimberly, who is Vegas?


Epsilon Says:

Ajet:

Quite there with you but to a lesser degree! I try hard to prevent myself from having my heart broken for a third time after too much hope during the FO and USO. I can’t remember how many times I have told myself that I am not going to cheer for Federer again after what he had done to me but I just can’t help it! It’s like falling in love… no wonder they call it “falling”.


Kimberly Says:

Betting odds in la vegas


Epsilon Says:

Forget Wimbledon! Probably because it wasn’t the final after defeating Novak nor did it have two MPs… serving! But still it had that 178-0 record after a two-set lead!


Kimberly Says:

Other advise, be a fan of multiple sports, basketball, football, tennis men and women then you have many players and teams that disappoint you and the heartbreak is less although more frequent. See within the next 48 hours I can be disappointed by 3 different players/teams.

So low expectation and dissipation of hope/disappointment


Ajet Says:

thanks for your timely suggestion kimberly! I will follow your advice much as I can.

epsilon, you’re right, we must try hard not to cheer for fed!


tfouto Says:

Ajet, you just cant not cheer for Federer. It’s just the expectation you have to play with. Like i want him to win, but its like i am watching and thinking i hope Federer win this point, but its not probable that will happen. Its like lottery, you want it to win, but you are not really expecting win it. You are not holding your lottery ticket and hoping that you might win today. Its like, Federer lost, boring, but i was expecting, nothing big deal. If Federer wins Yeah!!!


Daniel Says:

In AO 2009 Nadal broke Fed serve right in the first game, and right there I thought, This is going to go the distance. Federer broke right back and set the tone for the reminder of the match, with his awfull serving on display.

Nadal is a good returner, he apply the tactic of going to the midle of the court high wit spin, even when he is far back, or going ofr the backhand corner whenever he is in position. And he put a lot of balls back in play, always did agaisnt Fed. To me, the Federer serve and how Nadal is returning will set the tone. If Nadal return short he will lose (being Fed serving good or he not confident enough to hit deep), if he return deep and go for winners on second serve as he did agaisnt Berdy last set, he will win.

But his serve, specially second serve looks pretty attackable, and Fed is return like the devil last 3 matches (Karlovic, Tomic and DelPo).

I agree with Sean and Kimberly, with Nadal’s mind not fully recovered, Fed has the edge. But nothing csn boost Nadals confidance than a win against Fed. He never lost a Slam when he beat Fed (7 out of 10 of his Slam).


Nims Says:

Ajet, I’m not sure why you are so anxious. Roger never loses a match against Nadal on court. He loses the match in the locker room, before it even starts. I’m not sure if there is suspense left in their matches outside WTF.


Ajet Says:

nims, however fed beat rafa on clay in 2009. federer is undoubtedly capable of losing as well as winning. that’s why am tense. If I were 100% sure of fe losing, but I am not! that’s what makes me tense! Anyway, am tring to exorcise my anxiety demons. The thing is I should never have watched tennis at all, I’d not be tense then, unlike now! so tense!


Epsilon Says:

Right tfouto. I meant I tried not to cheer but couldn’t. I still do strongly. Now I just try to prevent getting that horrible feeling by not hoping too much… But I’m still hoping of course, but thinking: He already got 16… He has all those records… His is the most beautiful game I’ve seen… If he gets something more, gets back to number one and breaks that record, or corrects that annoying H2H against Nadal, then it would be nice, but not essential… He already proved himself… But then, when you see him play that well and not win, even if you tell yourself you’re not expecting much, it is still very annoying. Part of that was his fault. For example, after these match points against Novak, he just collapsed. Why didn’t he break back? Why didn’t he at least hold his serve afterwards? Similar thing probably in the FO final. It’s probably mental. And I hope (!) he has figured it out.


Kimberly Says:

The what if scenarios are available on the bracket site. Colino6 and I have no chance of winning. Even if rafa beats djokovic in the final I only come in third.


sheila Says:

hoping federer wins because opportunities like this are becoming less & less 4 federer @ his age. unfortunately, nadal wants 2b the man again & take away #1 from djokovic & i think it will begin here. nadal will go out w/his usual game plan against federer. topspin to bh & thats y this is such a bad matchup 4 roger. unless federer is playing so aggressive & w/much confidence i think nadal is the fvt going in. annacone, i’m sure is telling fed to play attack tennis but whether he can do it is the big ?. i think nadal fears players more like berdych or delpo. players w/huge serves & huge fh. i can only hope roger pulls it out. i will record it, but not watch it unless roger wins it. if roger loses again to nadal i dread the nadal fans rubbing it in us federer fans faces once again.


Ajet Says:

I said: ”If I were 100% sure of fe losing, but I am not!”

But I actually mean if I were 100% sure of fed losing, then I’d not care much and would be far less tense, but unfortunately I’m not! thats why am tense!


marrisv Says:

I think it is extremely important for Rafa to be switched on and be mentally strong right from the start. IMO, the start for him is very vital and the first set even more so.

Even when he took to the Berdych match, he was very nervous. I think he will be nervous again tonight. (He is coming off of worst beatings in the final set against the other top 3 in their lat encounters- 6-0 against fed and murray and 6-1 against Novak)

His return of serve(position and strategy) and backhand is going to have to be strong for him to stand a chance. AO 2009 final – One of the main reasons i believe he had a great match then was his backhand was firing.

No matter, he has to play with confidence and without fear. Hope he does… but i am keeping my expectations low from rafa. I don’t think he believes he can get it done.


Kimberly Says:

Sheila you won’t hear it from me and I hope for the same courtesy. Nadal and fed are gracious lets try to follow their example


Epsilon Says:

My problem, however, is that the match starts 10:30 a.m. here in Egypt, and it’s still not 9:00 p.m.! It’s probably going to be a long night!


El Flaco Says:

I’ll give the edge to Nadal in this one if their levels are similar. The conditions at night have been like evening matches in Miami, 65-70 and humid. Nadal beat Federer twice in Miami at night and of course the 2009 AO final was at night as well.


Angel Says:

Epsilon take a pill and go to sleep.


Humble Rafa Says:

Your Humble Highness in 4. Roger wins the first set, then folds. Peace.


van orten Says:

roger was together with rod today…no better preperation needed… class act …
it is time for fed to turn the tide !!! vamos roger vamos !!!!


Epsilon Says:

Angel:

I don’t do drugs. :). Besides, I want to have timed sleep so that I can wake up shortly before the match. The wait is worst just before the match.

van Orten:

What are the main points? I’ve heard about it but my ADSL is down and I can’t watch the video on my phone.

P.S. Why don’t the people running this site provide registration option so that one can edit the mistakes in his/her posts and duplicate names would be avoided? Of course the two Michaels will have to fight to death with a broken billiard stick for the user name!


S Green Says:

Federer will likely win the semi if he can set speed-play on cruise, play inside, and relentlessly attack and attack, giving Rafa no time to find rhythm and set up his shots. But if Federer allows or is forced to play long rallies, Rafa will win.

So it is obvious whoever can set and maintain the terms of play will win. If the terms of dictation fluctuate, it is 50-50.


carlo Says:

The edge is to Nadal in a GS Fedal, for all the usual reasons we’ve seen since Wimbldon 08 and AO 09. But the winner gets an ominous prize, Djokovic in the final. That could play on Rafa’s mind more than Federer’s; but they won’t know the outcome of Djokovic v Murray. There is the chance that Murray will beat Djokovic, but it’s less a chance imo than Federer beating Nadal.

Murray said his aim was to play Djokovic again and it will be a good test for where his game is now, which sounded like he’s relaxed, on a fact finding mission at this time, and content to see what that tells him. Of course, if somehow Andy wins, I imagine his goal quite different!


adam Says:

I am a huge roger fan and would love to see him win more than anything. but i disagree, I dont think that roger has been lokking that great in his previous matches. The score look good, but I dont think his level is really his best right now. Nadal however has been lokking more like vintage nadal. little errors and he is moving his forehand around amazingly like he does when hes at his best. Im calling nadal


Ajet Says:

Dream Situations:

1. murray beating djoker and fed beating rafa, then murray beating roger to win his 1st slam :)

2.djoker beating murray and fed beating rafa, then fed beating djoker to win 17th slam :)

3.djoker beating murray and fed beating rafa, then djoker beating fed

4.joker beating murray and rafa beating fed, then djoker again beating rafa :)

Nightmare situations:

1. djoker beating murray and losing to rafa in final :( :( :(

2. murray beating djoker and losing in final to rafa :( :(

3. murray beating djoker and losing in final to fed :(


Adam Says:

Also, as usual it is just a bad matchup for fed. So I of course have to give the benefit of the doubt to nadal.


Ajet Says:

Dream Situations:

1. murray beating djoker and fed beating rafa, then murray beating roger to win his 1st slam :)

2.djoker beating murray and fed beating rafa, then fed beating djoker to win 17th slam :)

3.djoker beating murray and fed beating rafa, then djoker beating fed

4.joker beating murray and rafa beating fed, then djoker again beating rafa :)

5. murray beating djoker and rafa beating fed, then murray beating rafa for his 1st slam :)

Nightmare situations:

1. djoker beating murray and losing to rafa in final :( :( :(

2. murray beating djoker and losing in final to rafa :( :(

3. murray beating djoker and losing in final to fed :(


Ajet Says:

it must be 1000s of :) :) :) if murray wins his 1st slam here, what a dream-come-true thing it would be!!! :D


Skorocel Says:

Daniel: „But his (Nadal’s) serve, specially second serve looks pretty attackable, and Fed is return like the devil last 3 matches (Karlovic, Tomic and DelPo).“

Even though these 3 have better serve than Nadal, problem is, against Nadal, Roger usually returns badly – especially his 2nd serve… 1 out of 17 BPs in the FO 2007 final serves as an example. A guy like Djoker can really punish Nadal’s 2nd serve, but Roger, for some „unknown“ (?) reason, chokes when the opportunity presents itself…


Tennis Vagabond Says:

3:30 am
They play tennis in Australia because they hate me.

Or… jealousy over the one true tennis legend, underground hero Bacon O’Rourke: http://www.TennisVagabond.com has his adventures on and off court!


Dave Says:

Most Federer fans are happy that Federer gets a rare opportunity to play Nadal on non-clay surfaces, since Nadal has the surface advantage when playing on the clay (which makes up the majority of their matches).

This is only the second major since the 2007 US Open that Federer and Djokovic were not drawn in the same half of the draw. In other words, Federer has had to deal most with Djokovic at this stage in the Grand Slams since Novak became the No. 3 player.

Roger Federer has the edge in form over Nadal. Many experts agree that Federer is playing a level higher than he did at the World Tour Finals, even though he is on outdoor hardcourts now. And even though his first serve percentage at the AO has been lower than at World Tour Finals or Doha. In “Another Roger romp”, the Australian newspaper The Age described the Federer-delpo match: “The 16-time grand slam champion dismissed Del Potro by stealth rather than bluster… It is a thing of beauty to see him pick apart an opponent like this, and tennis has nothing to match it. Novak Djokovic is the No. 1 male player in the world, and Federer has not won a grand slam tournament since 2010, but he still wins the top-ranking for aesthetics, hands down. There were a few Swiss fans with painted faces in the house chanting and yelling; the others just gasped at the genius of his shotmaking…It was not that Del Potro served badly; a highly respectable 67 per cent of his first serves landed in play, most of them around the 200km/h mark. But Federer read them, blocked them back into the court to make his opponent keep playing. Del Potro would win only 57 per cent of points when his first serve hit the target.”

Federer crushing Nadal at the World Tour Finals was the most one-sided match ever played between the Big Four players in terms of percentage of total points won (Roger won 67%, Rafa 33% — see link for match stats between Big 4 players) as well as the second fastest match (only Fed’s 2007 WTF semi over Rafa was two minutes faster). Rafa tried to re-frame that match, just two months ago, as “three months ago”, lol.
http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=193260

In their last five setter at the 2011 French Open final, an exhausted Federer had his best ever results against Nadal at the French Open (Roger should have won the first set), despite the disadvantage of being sapped by Djokovic in their epic semifinal as well as having the tougher route to the final (with a steady diet of top players, good claycourters, past and future top 10 players, and French/Spanish player)

Fools like Todd Woodbrige continue to trumpet “the psychology” of Roger’s win-loss record mostly on clay against Rafa, despite Federer’s demolition of Nadal in their last match at the World Tour Finals. Federer achieved this regardless of any mental baggage that his critics believe supposedly haunts his packed-with-successmind. Federer has the clarity of realizing that most of his non-clay losses to Nadal were due to health and back injury reasons (doesn’t matter what we believe, it’s what Roger believes). If anything, Nadal’s embarrasing loss just two months ago could be a toxic factor in Nadal’s mind. The last time Federer demolished Nadal (at 2007 WTF), Rafa survived a couple of shaky matches on clay in 2008 Monte Carlo and especially 2008 Hamburg (against a mononucleosis-compromised Federer) before getting payback at the 2008 French Open.

Federer’s memories of the 2009 Australian Open final match against Nadal are irrelevant because Roger knows that — despite the dissappointment after having put in the extra-hard work to recover his game from debilitating mononucleosis the year before — his bad back let him down and affected his movement and serving (only 51% in a 5-setter!) in key stages of that 2009 match. Reputed tennis journalist Tom Tebbutt: “Federer had a back problem after the Australian Open at the beginning of 2009, an event marked by his substandard play in the losing the fifth set of the final 6-2 to Rafael Nadal… He then withdrew from the hard court tournament in Dubai before playing the hard court events in Indian Wells, Calif., (losing to Andy Murray) and Miami (losing to Novak Djokovic). The latter match was marked by him uncharacteristically smashing a racquet in anger on the court and then saying he was happy to be getting off the hard courts with the clay-court season about to begin. He has said that his back got better and he finally had free movement starting at the Italian Open in May, and that showed as he won the next event on clay in Madrid, and then the French Open and Wimbledon.” Yet a probably back-injured Federer still had 19 breakpoints, and won more total points than Nadal did. A 100% healthy Federer would probably have won that match. So of course Federer relishes the chance to play Nadal again, to set the record straight against Nadal in his absolute prime… just like he did against Del Potro in his prime two days ago. That’s why Federer has been careful to reiterate that Nadal and he (Roger) have no injury excuses for this match. [Nadal still opportunistically reminds us that his 5-hour Friday night 2009 AO semifinal match against the equally slow playing, mentally shaky No. 15 Verdasco -- whom Rafa owns -- "was much harder. After the (semi-final) I couldn't move the next day" even though Nadal had Saturday off to recover before playing the Sunday final, and Nadal is surely much fitter than John Isner and Nicholas Mahut. Furthermore, Federer's 2006 Rome tough quarterfinals, tough semifinals and 5-hour plus final against Nadal on clay played on three consecutive days was probably much more taxing].
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/match-tough/federers-back-needs-a-break/article1301682/

The factor that might most hurt Federer tonight? Having had the toughest draw of the Big Four players (meaning he was under more mental pressure to be ‘on’ in every match), opponents who gave him less rhythm (Kudryavtsev, Karlovic, Tomic), opponents who each played very different and none with anything like Nadal’s topspin, less match practice from Andreas Beck’s walkover. Nadal, who should have been two sets down to the mentally-soft Berdych, has had an easy draw against No. 167 Kuznetsov, No. 190 Haas, No. 119 Lacko, his buddy he owns No. 19 Lopez, mentaly-soft No. 7 Berdych. Delpotro probably would have beaten Nadal that night.

It would not surpriseme if this match lasted three closely-fought sets in les than three hours, especially if Federer serves well… maximum four sets. Nadal will probably find out quickly tonight that his usual strategy of pounding the Federer backhand is now less effective, which might force him to reveal some of the tactics he has been planning to use against Djokovic.


madmax Says:

Guys, don’t beat yourself up.

Green has the most balanced opinion, but I feel more that Roger will do it. He will do it. It’s a great mantra and I believe.


margot Says:

Ajet @ 3pm: certainly would, but not sure “Ivan Effect” has had enough time to work yet, but Andy is moving so fast, almost like a short distance sprinter at the mo.so..:)


alison hodge Says:

to be honest after the last two years 1st pulling out against murray in 2010,and then loosing to ferrer last year, i think rafas done great to get to the semis,so as a fan im delighted hes got this far,regardless of what happens against federer hes had a great couple of weeks,much better than he or i even expected,so he has much to be proud of,anything now will would be an added bonus,and just like kimberly if rafa does win you wont here this rafa fan gloating either,be a fan of one or the other by all means,but theres no need to be little other players achievements.


El Flaco Says:

Yeah the timing of the match sucks if you live in the USA or Canada


YianPap Says:

Guys, get real. History is history.
Federer will crush Nadal this time. I can already feel him zoning in…He will come out swinging, serve superbly and batter Nadal into submission.
Just like in the O2.


Kimberly Says:

Well the Sean jinx has recently been replaced with the Jamie psychic jinx but I hope for my sake it comes into play today


marrisv Says:

@alison hodge – agree with your post above…


alison hodge Says:

thanks marris.


Fot Says:

Don’t know what’s going to happen, but I hope Roger can take it from Rafa tonight. I’m just glad that it is at least on a hard court (which gives Roger a shot) verses it being on clay.

I’ll be watching (2:30 am my time) and trying to pull Roger through. But even if he loses, he’ll still be my favorite!

Go Roger!


jane Says:

ajet, your enthusiasm is infectious; I enjoyed your dreams/nightmares post. I hope you’re able to enjoy the match and not have a nervous breakdown. Stay cool like Fed. :)


alison hodge Says:

you never know kimberly,to quote jamies pyschic,murray will loose to tsonga,sorry murray fans you heard it here,then tsonga looses to kn, so much for jamies pyschic,and strange jamies not posted since,could be a coincidence maybe hmm.


margot Says:

kimberly @4.06, nice one :) Oh but hang on…she said Andy was going to do very well at the end of the year…help!


jane Says:

“Federer will likely win the semi if he can set speed-play on cruise, play inside, and relentlessly attack and attack” – S.Green, I like to call this his bliztkrieg mode. ;)

“This is only the second major since the 2007 US Open that Federer and Djokovic were not drawn in the same half of the draw.” – dave it’s so amazing when stated bluntly like that, wow! And Murray was talking about NOT being drawn on Rafa’s side for one, how that’s refreshing. It must be a nice change for Murray and Nole to just have to meet one of Fedal in the final and not have to go through both (although Nole had to do that at the USO).

margot, Nole speaks very positively about Muzza in his presser. I get the impression Djoko is not that hopeful of winning, or maybe I read into it? But he talks about how fit Andy looks, how well he is playing, Lendl, etc. Just like Kimberly interpreted Rafa’s presser as implying something about motivation I kind of got a similar impression with Djoko’s.


margot Says:

jane: They don’t rubbish each other though do they? At some level they’re friends still. I’m sure Nole will raise his game the minute he sees his title threatened.
However, Ivan TT was spotted watching the match and taking copious notes that’s very scary indeed….;)


jane Says:

LOL, margot – no head games with them I don’t think. Lots of deep respect. Nole said they aren’t playing football because ITT is keeping Muzza busy with golf, lol. More focused yes? :) He’s scary for sure, but scary good.


Krishna Says:

jamie: Who does your psychic predict to win..Federer or Nadal?


Anton NuGatory Says:

Cuz he’s better 16 grand slams nuff said!!!


rogerafa Says:

@ alison

To be fair to Jamie, he did say that the psychic did the detailed chart reading only for Novak. His chart is perfect for this period. In any case it does not need a psychic to know that Novak will most likely win the tournament.

@margot

” she said Andy was going to do very well at the end of the year…help!”

If the psychic’s jinx is working, Andy will do very well at the START of the year. Maybe he will win the tournament. Andy definitely has had some lucky breaks so far.:)


Anton NuGatory Says:

Roger, 16 Grand Slams nuff said, eh…


alison hodge Says:

margot and jane the 4 of them are amazing,and theres a case for any of them winning the title,it just goes to show how good and how consistent they are,great for mens tennis,noles amazing run has made rafa,roger and andy raise there level another notch which has made for an exciting tournament,i really hope the rest of the year is as good as the ao has been,hope we have a cracking final,and may the best man win whoever it may be,good luck to them all.


alison hodge Says:

rogerafa seems a bit like kimberly said jamies pyschic tells jamie,what jamie wants to here,and like you say noles the fav and you dont need a pyschic to tell you that,if she was only doing the chart for nole fare enough,so why did he bring up murray and tsonga then?


Thangs Says:

Me too suspecting Nole is not good as he imposes. He keeps telling I am healthy and playing at peak…something to make others beleive and mentally making dent ‘Hey,I am still the king. you should be afraid of’ kind of…Everyone knows that he is still the king..no need to pinpoint that everytime..I go for Murray over Nole.


van orten Says:

Epsilon, rod talked about Fed’ s high level of confidence, that he folllowed his run in the fall including the wtf , Fed asked rod if he remembered all his opponents he faced on his way to reaching the grand slam, about rivalry fedal and his biggest foes and so on Was just a nice nice talk and over 10 minutes…then he went to eurosport and chatted with wilander and Barbara schett. Surprise surprise mats picked fed to win lol. Fed seemed super easy!!!! Any news from nadal? Except calling Fed the favorite ,-) let’s hope for a great match!!!

I have to work tomorrow but I ll find an excuse to leave earlier


El Flaco Says:

Nadal also beat Federer in a night match in Dubai. I think Nadal is undefeated in night matches against Federer. Can anyone think of an outdoor night match that Federer won against Nadal?


grendel Says:

well, before Fedal, there’s Sharpykit. Hingis said today in Melbourne:”Of the current crop, Hingis believes that Petra Kvitova is the player to beat.

“I really love game she plays, the fluency she has on her strokes and the serve, and also now more confidence when I saw the finals at Wimbledon.

“She’s a true champion. Sooner or later I think we’ll see her at the top spot probably. If it’s not going to happen here, I think it’s a question of time.”

Sharapova is in good nick, though I’m still not convinced about her serve. It’s clearly in a lot better shape than earlier in the year, but one just gets this feeling that there is an underlying fragility, and it could break down again. Against Kerber, for example, when the German staged her mini-comeback, Sharapova’s first serve started to lose potency, it became short and fairly easy to play. Still, she avoided doubles.

Kvitova is just all over the bloody place. Watching her against Errani, you’d find yourself wondering one minute if there was ever any one who could hit quite like her and the next minute if she’d given the whole concept of mediocrity a fresh examination . And then, as if bored with all this, she’d put in 2 or 3 good – or bad, as the mood took her – games on the trot.

Will the ruthless professional Sharapova punish her for these bizarre vagaries? It’s a question of whether she can, really. Lets face it, Kvitova punishes herself. And then, sometimes, she punishes her opponent.

Who knows what will happen tonight.


Kimmi Says:

grendel, hopefully sharapova will give her rhythm unlike errani who had a very tricky game. sharapova is hit hard or harder. kvitova knows to do that herself.

great matched today. best players on WTA are in the semi. both matches should be a cracker.

and then fedal…


Kimberly Says:

Well I am rooting for the Heat, Sharapova, Azarenka, and Rafa. Hopefully at least 2 of 4 come through for me and I don’t get blanked.


Kimberly Says:

If Sharapova plays well I think she can win this tournament. But her serve holding up is a huge factor. Also she has been bullying everyone in the return game and the Kvitova serve is not one to be bullied easily. But she has been consistent from the ground and Kvitova goes through patches. Or maybe I am just totally delusional. Kaiser is rooting for the exact opposite of me in all three matches.


Gordo Says:

It’s odd that with the exception of one passing comment, not one of you condider Paul Annacone a factor, even though this may be a grand case of history repeating itself, with this coach raising Fed’s game and pointing out how he could improve, just as he succesfully did with Sampras a decade ago.

Instead, we have some of you comparing the similar humidity and weather conditions tonight to the last time Rafa and Fed met in Miami – how many years ago? – and thus declaring that Rafa will win.

Do y’all discount the coaches of these guys? Amazing.


Thangs Says:

With Paul Annacone, fed won zero slams..Made 1 slam final so far.


Tennis Vagabond Says:

Gordo, Fed has been with Anacone a long time now, and it has coincided with Fed’s worst results since before ’03.
Its not a new relationship, and as has been pointed out, Rafa destroyed Fed on a similar surface in Miami LAST year, and that was already far into the Anacone era.
So I don’t think you can conclude that this rabble discounts coaches.


jamie Says:

Semifinals:

Federer beats Nadal

Djokovic beats Murray

Final:

Djokovic beats Federer


Kimmi Says:

jamie – so what happened to the psychic predictions? apparently federer would lose to delpo and murray to tsonga. tell your friend to quite that job..


andrea Says:

i love it. nothing brings out the fear, joy, analysis and endless, long winded posts more than a roger-rafa event.

yes, rog is my fave and my pick but part of me thinks this match could go either way. that being said, i still think roger is playing with that extra bit of confidence and juice. i think he can smell the finish line and he wants it.


Kimberly Says:

The Bryan’s the only thing American tennis can boast left.

Lol @ Kimmi post.

Btw all Kimmi bracket sitting on top.


Kimberly Says:

I fear I will not be able to watch all three matches. I will try to stay awake for the first two women’s matches and hopefully when I wake up fedal will still be playing. I can’t pull an all-nighter I have two kids, a job, and a fitness/tennis regime. I imagine all the euros are crashing out and will wake up for fedal. I hope some of ladies will be here to post during the girls matches?


Daniel Says:

Uhuu, I have 25% chance of winning tennis-x bracket challenge, as long as Fed wins!:)


Michael Says:

Nothing is a certainity. It will all depend on the form that particular day as there is very little to choose between the top players. By the look of it, it appears that Federer should drastically increase his first serve percentage if he is to beat Nadal and that can happen only by chance and law of average because so far Federer’s % of first serve has been rather dismal. Hope he turns that around and then if he does that he will certainly make a match of it since for Roger good serve is bread and butter and the other aspects of the game will jell well if he serves well. I would say it would be 50:50 and even 55:45 favouring Rafa. Hope I am proved wrong and Roger surprises me with his sublime Tennis.


Michael Says:

Roger’s fans have placed huge expectations on his shoulders and it would be nice if he lives up to that. Federer can certainly do it. He has the game to beat any Player on earth.

Roger has nothing to prove that he is a Champion, but still if he beats Nadal and Novak in the finals to win this Championship – what a dream run that would be ? I would say it would rank the highest among his accomplishments so far ??


Gannu Says:

madmax the eternal optimist…i need u to be there today to soothe my nerves ;-)


Daniel Says:

Skorocel,

I think Fed is returning better against Nadal, FO 2011 and WTF 2011 he did way better. On clay his mental demons get the netter of him, on hard I think he is slight favor.

My only fear is, he had back problems against Nadal in AO 2009 (awful serving) without further notice, this time he already had problems in the same department (reported and forcing him to withdraw) and the serving is not popping as it used to, few aces and low percentage. What if Nadal can hold long enough to make to drag Fed and make him feel the back again?! Than AO 2009 will repeat.

But I expect tomorrow Fed to start like Delpo match and breaking Rafa right in the first 5 games. The problem will be Nadal getting into match groove when his back is against the wall, and we all saw this before.

I still think is Fed’s match base on form, streak, Nadal vulnerability (not winning a title since RG 11′) and mind set. He seems to be on an all or die this year: olymics, davis cup, added more tourneys to his schedule and very focused on every match (rare Fed walkabouts during this 24 match winning streak).

Hope for a good match and if he loses, not folding mentally on a 5th, but by merit of Nadal superior play.


Kimmi Says:

kimberly – i think jamie needed that :)

here we go. the girls are on..azarenka the steady one, just like i thought it would go!


Daniel Says:

Michael,

It would be DelPo, Nadal and Djoko, 2 beat him in Grand Slam finals and the other in 4 Slam semis. That would be epic!:)


Michael Says:

Daniel, Thanks for missing Del Potro. It would really be a monumental achievement beating the fearsome three in a major and especially those who have denied him some slams. Today it is a dream and it is for Federer to realize it for himself and others who root for him.


Daniel Says:

Wow, amazing point construction by Azarenka, total control. Very high level, I didn’t saw Azarenka make a single Unforced error on the backhand side, #1 material.


Gannu Says:

hmm…interesting match ..azarenka is playing very well against clijsters


Kimmi Says:

azarenka VERY steady, she take the first set. she must have hit one or two errors. great improvement on her game


Dave Says:

Jane: “This is only the second major since the 2007 US Open that Federer and Djokovic were not drawn in the same half of the draw.” – dave it’s so amazing when stated bluntly like that, wow! And Murray was talking about NOT being drawn on Rafa’s side for one, how that’s refreshing. It must be a nice change for Murray and Nole to just have to meet one of Fedal in the final and not have to go through both (although Nole had to do that at the USO).

Oops, slight mistake: 2008 French Open, 2010 French Open and now 2012 Australian Open are the only three majors since 2007 USO where Federer and Djokovic were not in the same half of the draw. Thus, Fed and Novak were drawn together in 14 of the last 17 Grand Slam championships, which seems to go against some law of probability.

Regardless, you’re right that it’s likely a nice change for Murray and Djoko to play each other. And possibly less stressful simply because they seem to have a genuinely ‘closer’ relationship (than even with Nadal) maybe because they’re in the same age and break through cohort (Rafa matured at a much younger age).

Another aspect, from Djokovic’s stanpoint, may be that his continual running into Federer — a player whose game would more likely trouble him in hardcourt majors than NAdal’s — gave Novak less opportunity to face and beat Nadal on non-clay surfaces before the final. So the only major semifinal meetings between Rafa and Novak were 2006, 2007, 2008 French Open and on the ‘green clay’ of 2007 Wimbledon — Novak did not catch Nadal at the semifinal stage of the US Open and Australian Open where his hardcourt abilities favour him (and possibly even at Wimbledon 2008 to 2010, since their first two grass matches were tight affairs). Since 2007 USO, Novak was drawn in Nadal’s half in (incredibly) the 2008 and 2010 French Opens, Nadal’s fav surface again. To make matters worse in the first half of 2010 Novak was in a funk, not the time to be drawn to Rafa’s half at Roland Garros (he lost to Jueregen Melzer the round before the semifinal with Nadal). Novak probably would have preferred catching Rafa at the 2009 French Open, after giving Nadal a run for his money in the clay Masters tourneys.

My view is that not running into Nadal at the majors may have hurt Djokovic’s development and consistency a bit (although an argument could be made that losing to Nadal at majors, if it had happened, might have been more harmful than losing to Federer — where such losses could be explained away like Lendl did for Murray). In other words, my theory is that Djokovic might have shot to the top a bit earlier had he tasted blood by beating Nadal at the rare times Rafa made the USO semifinals (2008, 2009, 2011) and AO semifinals (2008, 2012) before Novak’s ‘jump the curve’ 2011 year, where Nadal might be more vulnerable than in a final.


Krishna Says:

Thanks jamie! :)


jane Says:

Interesting ideas Dave. On the one hand, I’ve considered similar ones myself. But on the other hand, I’ve wondered if facing Fed so many times on hard court (at the slams especially) forced Nole to lift his game: those losses in 07, 08, 09 at the USO finally allowed him to break through in 10 and then win it all in 11.


tennisfan Says:

Just 2.5 hours to go, for people who missed it, here are the AO game stats (till QF) for both these champs: Federer/Nadal Epic Semi- Final – What do Australian Open Stats Indicate?- Part 1 http://bit.ly/z4jhyP


Dave Says:

Gordo Says: “It’s odd that with the exception of one passing comment, not one of you condider Paul Annacone a factor, even though this may be a grand case of history repeating itself, with this coach raising Fed’s game and pointing out how he could improve, just as he succesfully did with Sampras a decade ago… Do y’all discount the coaches of these guys? Amazing.”

It works both ways. All those experts who opportunistically tie Federer’s successes to Paul Annacone are shamefully silent when Federer loses — as if Federer’s failures are due to Federer alone, but Federer’s successes are due to the genius and experience of the celebrity coach Annacone.

Fact is, Annacone is the first coaching relationship where Federer has not won a single major. Federer may have seemingly made ‘slight adjustments’ — some of which he already did as a younger player — but they have been some obvious critical areas that you would have expected a great coach to have made more of an impact on. Annacone’s results with Tim Henman and the British LTA are nothing to be proud of, and his results with Federer seemed headed that way. Unfortunately Federer is now stuck with Annacone — can’t fire him because of the repercussions.

If anything Severin Luthi deserves more accolades for his coaching work. Under Luthi, Federer not just did the near imposible of recovering his game from mononucleosis, Federer also won a boxset of all four different majors within a span of just six majors (between 2008 USO to 2010 AO) — this was the fastest in tennis history of a player winning all four majors outside of a calendar year Grand Slam, and Fed did it duirng Nadal’s prime.

Annacone’s biggest impact has been as Federer’s first publicist. Finally the tennis media are happy that they have someone from the Federer camp whose sound bites they can quote.

Andy Murray made a smarter decision to hire Ivan Lendl, whether or not Andy has the ability to benefit from his guidance.


Dave Says:

jane, yes you may be right there as well. I guess only Novak and Vadja know the answer to that one. But whether he’ll reveal it in a tell-all autobiography remains to be seen :)

On another note: if Roger-Rafa is a great match and/or great one-sided performance — regardless who wins — if only the Tennis Gods were able to get it replayed on prime time TV this evening in every sports bar throughout the world. It would elevate the status of Tennis among mainstream sports even further.


Nims Says:

I’m surprised still people in this forum on discussing the result of Roger vs Rafa match. It would be better to discuss who Rafa will face in the final. I think second semi seems to be more open.


Ike Says:

This Rafa-Roger match is as much anticipated one as the FO final last year. We all know what happened there, (yes that was on clay). Roger will win a set or two, (he might win those even something like 6-1, 6-2), I don’t think he can win 3/5 sets against Rafa, he just can’t maintain that high level tennis for long against Rafa. If Roger wins today, I will shut up forever!


Ike Says:

@ Nims
your post seems so assured, it’s almost arrogant :)
but i like your confidence in Rafa! And I agree with you :)


Epsilon Says:

Morning, everybody!

Thanks, van Orten.

Gannu:

please, pleeease, don’t use that word: “Feddy bear”. It’s very annoying and kind of creepy. O.K.?


bstevens Says:

In every Fedal match (save one) Federer has served first. It would be interesting if Fed won the toss and chose to receive, maybe to try and send a message to Nadal that this will be a different match than most of their other meetings. Just a thought.


margot Says:

Am really going to enjoy this one, noooo stress, just sitting here feet up, nice cup of coffee in hand, re….lax…ing…;)
Hope it’s a long tiring war of attrition, after all they’ve got two days to recover?
Thangs: you prediction would be nice, but, but I know you like Andy and it’s so darn difficult to be objective then :( Nole is clear favourite with the world and his wife and also, I believe more to the point, the bookies. Que sera.


alison hodge Says:

epsilon i agree ive lost count of the number of times ,ive wanted to punch my computer screen evertime gannu says feddy bear,same as when people call djokovic djokernole,please fed or federer,djokovic or nole,feddy bear and djokernole,beyond irritating,annoying and yeah very creepy,enough already people please.


alison hodge Says:

margot ok dont rub it in lol,ill be pulling my hair out most likely by the end of this match,and no doubt we will both be the same again tomorrow,ha ha serves you right,only joking relax and enjoy the match grr.


atin Says:

roger is gonna beat rafa today,wait and watch…. our king will rock


margot Says:

alison, Gin at hand? And champagne if Rafa wins ;)
I’m inclined to think he will, but as much up in the air as ‘tother.


Daniel Says:

Nadal agresssive in the return on the first point. Interesting!


S Green Says:

Strong start from Federer not because he won the 1st game in love (2 minutes) but because he won all points from inside the baseline. None he played from behind the baseline.
Good sign.


alison hodge Says:

margot bit early in the day lol,but yeah a celebration if he does and drown my sorrows if he doesnt,hope rafa does pull it off,however we will see,agree 50/50,go rafa.


Daniel Says:

Uhuuuu. So far Fed 1-1 on BP. That is a record against Nadal:)
Told ya he would start blasting. Hope he maintain


S Green Says:

As a result of playing inside the baseline and quickening the pace, Fed breaks right away.


Daniel Says:

Wow, awesome return by Nadal!


S Green Says:

If Fed manages to continue imposing his brand of tennis, Rafa won’t have chances.


The fighter Says:

Come on Rafa!!!


van orten Says:

completely on feds racquet the match so far …like almost always go fed go


van orten Says:

4:1 fed easy hold , means nothing so far


Daniel Says:

Forehand is superb. Nadal as usual already with excelent defense forcing Fed to always hit one more ball.


Daniel Says:

Both are serving beuond 80% so far.


van orten Says:

well fed needs to keep pushing we all know what will happen otherwise..


Daniel Says:

Sloppy game, 3 UE by Fed, 2 forehands and a drop volley. Giving Nadal chance. Now break, sh…


van orten Says:

there we go again…it will never go away…it s amazing why why why incredible fed you are the man of missed opportunities ..my god …


van orten Says:

3-4 unforced errors vs nadal and you are toast


Dory Says:

Does anyone think Roger’s less affected mentally now that DjokerNole is No.1 & Nadal is the injured one? Tennis is a mental game too after all.


S Green Says:

One bad 1st serve from Fed, Rafa breaks back and into the set.


van orten Says:

it is the same old story i mean clearly fed has it all to win vs nadal but he is scared whatever i dont understand it really


Daniel Says:

Danger alert. First 40-0 game to Nadal.


S Green Says:

And Rafa is slowly and securely getting into rhythm, and Fed is being forced to play in Rafa’s turf. The momentum swings to Rafa.


DC Says:

WTFed…3 shanks in the game. Feds level is lower than a grasshoppers knee


Daniel Says:

Van orte. It was just a bad game, he devided o go to the net in 2 pointa after first serves in and he lost both points, that is rare. But this bad misses in Nadal’s game is concerning. He needs an easy game now to settle and attack next.


van orten Says:

30:15 and then serve and volley although he was on the upper hand even in baseline rallies.bad choices as always vs nad and now no 1st serve ..he will be broken again now and it is over


Daniel Says:

No first serve in an even so he is 40-0. Nadal tried to attack too much on return


van orten Says:

he needs that first set badly now roger come on !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


atin Says:

thank god..5-4 now


Daniel Says:

At least he serves first. Pressure game to Nadal now.


Gannu Says:

roger brings out his wordt against nadal..horrible serving …massve backhand shanks
i am damn frustrated already..he deserved this 1st set and l;ook wat a mess he has created…i am just fckng irritated…madmax where are you


Dory Says:

I think Roger’s gonna win today because this is their first Slam meeting after DjokerNole became No.1. This time and every time. Federer’s gonna improve his head to head against Rafa before his career ends. It’s DjokerNole who’s made all the difference. He’s “damaged” and “owned” Rafa which is why Federer’s mental block or wounds have healed.


van orten Says:

and we all know the difference how fed broke by hitting outstanding shots and how nadal broke ( ue by fed)


Dory Says:

Roger just needs to adjust and tidy up his backhands a bit against Rafa. Will take some time in every match. But I believe Roger’s gonna win today.


Gannu Says:

disastrous…dory are u sure of at u are saying after seeing the mess that roger is in…horrible play


Daniel Says:

Fed is not returnong this nside out on the BH anymore. 3 errors in this game.


van orten Says:

that is what makes nadal so annoying for me …i cant stand the fact that all the matches are on rogers racquet why cant he produce some ue from tim to time ..it is not possible is it …what a crap this all is …fed loses first set i go back to work…no need to keep on watching


van orten Says:

go roger go …i try to stay positive…u can do it


Daniel Says:

This is a mess shot. He shoud have killed. 3 times he serves and volley and didn’t won the point. Now again as stburn as he is and he won a serve and volley point:)
Now is the time to break, foccus and put te returns in play, don’t give free points.


tfouto Says:

Federer is just making stupid, stupid errors… Focus… Fed just cant afford to be broken back that way… If he wants to have a chance he have to take his chances…


Dory Says:

Yes I’m sure he’s making more errors than usual but it’s Rafa we are talking about. But Roger’s gonna win. Believe me DjokerNole is the BEST THING THAT HAPPENED TO Federer and Nadal. The trivalry changed the equation. Federer is now always going to be more stronger mentally. And his brilliant game of course can stand up so he’s gonna win.


atin Says:

comon roger..break him now


Daniel Says:

Tiebreak, just as AO 09′. Fed needs this set more, crucial for the match.


van orten Says:

tie break ..oh oh oh why is fed so hard on us fans haha


Dory Says:

C’mon Roger! Once first set is done, Roger should get stronger.


van orten Says:

is nadal serving 90% or what


The fighter Says:

come on rafa nadal!!!!!!


Dory Says:

My hands are cold, I’m biting my fingernails and I’m trembling. ROGGGGERRRRRR!


Daniel Says:

This return on the deuce side in the midle is killing Fed. Giving too much free points. Finally an UE on the forehand by Nadal when trying to attack.


Daniel Says:

Yeah, they roobed him the first serve, he challenge and an ace.


Daniel Says:

Fed needs an insurance mini break


van orten Says:

first serve all the way with nadal


Dory Says:

Still Federer is returning little better than last year’s French Open I think


van orten Says:

go roger


Daniel Says:

Should have played the point Fed!!!


Dory Says:

Why why why DID HE CHALLENGE the serve?


Dory Says:

Magician at the net ROGER!!!!!!


van orten Says:

vamosssss rogerrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!


The fighter Says:

come on!!


Daniel Says:

Ufff, if he let Nadal in after 4-1 in the breaker as well it eould be too much.
Very smart play by Fed. 2 times he comes to the net when Nadal was not expecting.


van orten Says:

nadal not serving 2serves incredible come on now roger


Daniel Says:

Nadal under pressure always excelent.
Serve it out Fed!!!


alison hodge Says:

great 1st set by boththe great men,roger takes 1st set long way to go yet.


The fighter Says:

rafa rafa rafa


Eric Says:

well it wasn’t 6-2 like it could have been, but a set’s a set, right? nice tiebreak, too, I’m frankly surprised he didn’t drop the minibreak with that volley at 4-3


Dory Says:

Federer always had the superior game!! It’s DjokerNole who’s made the mental difference. It doesn’t hurt any more for Roger!!!!!


van orten Says:

nadal loses the tie break though serving like a maniac


contemperory Says:

Daniel, it was 7-5 in 2009 AO. Anyways, 1st set to Fed.

Michael, you were mentioning that Fed’s first serve is the key to this match – still aren’t we seeing something different ????


Daniel Says:

Hum, Nadal didn’t want to be in the bh corer and unleashed a swing long.
How many times did Fed lost a GS to Nadal after winning first set? Just 1, RG 06′
All other 6 GS when Fed lost first set he lost the match. This is a good sign.


van orten Says:

goooooo rogeeeeeeeeeeerrrr …stay cool everybodyyyyyyyy


S Green Says:

One BH overhit from Rafa, Federer takes the 1st set. That’s how close this match is.
If this match is played this close, Rafa’s chances will increase.


Tennis Vagabond Says:

They are both doing what they need to: Fed is making first serves and returning incredibly, Rafa is staying close to the baseline and going for the flat winner when he can. Epic.


contemperory Says:

Daniel, wasn’t it 7-5 in 2005 Aus ?

Michael remember we were talking about Fed’s first serve % being the key to the match? What do you think now? Granted that Fed took the first set and is up by a break, but Fed’s level of play is not that great I think, when compared to the Delpo game.


Dory Says:

Does no one see it like I see it? Roger’s the mentrally stronger one now that DjokerNole showed how to beat Nadal consistently. Nadal was the challenger to the GOAT which made him one of the GOATS and now DjokerNole thrashed Nadal in 2011 and made Federer more confident.


S Green Says:

Wow, simply wow, Federer is on song. Breaks in the 1st game of the 2nd set.
What can Rafa do?


Daniel Says:

In the last 9 matches who erver wins first set wins the match
Sole exception was RG 06′.


van orten Says:

someone pls understand roger federer here now hahaha oh my god


Daniel Says:

Damm Fed. Broke Nadal to love and now will return the favor?!


Daniel Says:

This is ironic…!


S Green Says:

Rafa breaks back right away in love. That’s bold.


Daniel Says:

Nadal lucky to find the basine in the midle of the point. Fed was total in control before that shot.


contemperory Says:

Horrible.. Sometimes Fed is showing signs of the old Fed vs Nadal :(


van orten Says:

fed would be a bit of a passing shot player as nadal i would be def. calmer…had again his chances there..nadal played and served pretty well though


Dory Says:

Roger should stay aggressive on his serve. Sometimes he forgets that against Nadal.


van orten Says:

go roger…keep that forehand clicking vamos …rafas first serve percentage is what guys??? it s incredibly high isnt it or seems to me


Dory Says:

Fed’s returning has definitely improved against Nadal in today’s match.


Dory Says:

Save for the occasional BH shank.


Daniel Says:

Nadal is the first to save a BP


van orten Says:

lucky nadal now two great forehand opportunities and fed misses them


Daniel Says:

First set was 79% van orten.


van orten Says:

incredible but this is nadal …fed clearly the better player in that service game who ends up winning it….nadal ..come on roger take your chance for christ sake


Dory Says:

Wish Roger was serving first in set 2.


Maso Says:

Too bad Roger shanked those two FH, there was a good opportunity to break Nadal there.


van orten Says:

now normally there comes a break for rafa normally cuz fed missed his chance and now nadal will break as alwayssss …it is like watching bill murray on groundhog day


Maso Says:

That return was super lucky… the point after wasn’t, though, what a shot by Nadal!


tfouto Says:

WTF is this!


Daniel Says:

Fed should have taken the net. He stayed in no mans land waiting to ses if he woulg get to the ball. And of course, Nadal got it.


van orten Says:

there you go…the day when nadal has bad luck vs fed will never come..he always plays his best ..hits the lines etc…a machine before the lord…djoker changed that at least for his sake


S Green Says:

This is insanely beautiful tennis. What treat for fans !!!


Maso Says:

DAMNIT!!! HOW THE HELL DID THIS HAPPEN?!?!?!?!


Dory Says:

Holy crap!! Roger saved TWO break points but couldn’t save the last one. Now Nadal’s 4-2 ahead. :(


Daniel Says:

Amazing!! Fed should have waited a bit to come to the net. Nadal adjusted for a DTL passing shot.


Maso Says:

It’s insane that Rafa nearly always producers his best tennis against Roger. He plays better against Fed than against anybody else, it’s almost sickening. Jesus… Well, Roger, better get that break back!


Dory Says:

C’mon Roger break right back.


van orten Says:

he wont but he is still in the match i guess …but thats why i respect djoker so much …he made nadal and fans feel what fed and fans felt for such a long time when playing nadal


Dory Says:

WTF 2 BH returns into the net.


Daniel Says:

2 serves on the lines down 15-30. Damm


van orten Says:

he should attack more rafas forehand he doesnt do that..here he is 15:30 and what 3 first serves in a row…he s sick…i hate it really do


Blah Says:

when roger hits incredible winners= what a magician, look at how he is at his best! No luck involved!

when nadal does the same= how lucky he is to always play the best! Tennis gods are on his side!

Am I doing it right?


Dory Says:

It’s unbelievable how DjokerNole thrashed Nadal every single time last year. Sometimes I feel it’s a dream. That’s really some consolation for Roger fans.


Daniel Says:

We complained for a long time about Fed’s slice return agaisnt Nadal. He never uses it anymore and he is right, this game Nadal put 3 in and deep, which force Fed’s error. But everytime he broke, he return agressive. He has to keep the intensity, his chances will come.


van orten Says:

i dont say nadal is pure luck…no but on the big points there is that drop of luck he never failed to experience vs fed…that is very hard for us who followed for over 6 years now that rivalry…fed is really unlucky vs rafa…it is incredible..there is nothing we or he can do…rafa will never fail..luck for him will never fail in critical moments…it is just how it is…fed cannot beat nadal when it matters most…hope finally today we all can make peace with that… enough is enough and fed deserves a better h2h in GSs


Maso Says:

And the match stops because of fireworks… That’s some seriously retarded organization.


amol Says:

phenominadal….he is amazing


van orten Says:

no blah it is not like that…but u are on the other side of the field man..easy to complain when u r a nadal supporter


Daniel Says:

No blah, Nadal hit crazy winners is his merit, but the problem with him that 80% of those are defensive shots. That’s the point. Agaisnt Fed the match always is in Fed’s racquet (except RG) and Nadal raies his defensive skills to the max when playing him.


Dory Says:

Fireworks=reset of momentum=opportunity for Federer to hold and then break.


Nims Says:

Why is that Roger trying to end the point quickly. He is eality beating Rafa in the baseline. This is the difference between Novak and Roger. Roger gives a target to Nadal which Nadal always takes it, whereas Novak just continues to play baseline game with him not finishing the point, which Nadal ultimately makes an error.


van orten Says:

like fed has break chance plays an incredible point forehand goes by ca 3 cm or what and next game nadal breaks and thats annoying for us it hurts very much losing like that and nadal never experienced that before nole came and demolished him every single time with his own weaponssssss


amol Says:

agree with you blah..but this is tennis-x…it’s to be expected


van orten Says:

fed first serve not really clicking !!!!


Maso Says:

Great, Roger, double fault. That’s how you get back in the match. Damnit….


Blah Says:

my favorite isnt nadal or anyone left in the field. Out of the four I hope djoker wins, if not, anyone other than murray cause I dont like his game/style. The point is it’s stupid to keep coming up with these excuses to take credit away from players who beats your fave.


Daniel Says:

1-1. Let’s go to the third.


Maso Says:

Okay, this is a disaster.


van orten Says:

errors like that are the juice of life for nadal incredible how fed destroys every hard work he put in so far


Dory Says:

WTF that BH return did you see from Nadal??


van orten Says:

line again


Daniel Says:

4 serves out. Fed totally off his game, missed everythinh in the book.
Hope he regroup!


Dory Says:

Okay so it’s a best of three match now. C’mon Roger think in times of weakness how Novak has “owned” Nadal.


S Green Says:

Finally Rafa takes the 2nd set. We have a match, real one.


Maso Says:

I should have stayed in bed instead of getting up to watch this…


Daniel Says:

Fed seems cold and is still off


Maso Says:

Wow, it seems like it’s too much to ask of Federer to play his best against Nadal in a grand slam… tragic.


Maso Says:

The fireworks killed Roger’s game, heh.


Dory Says:

Okay it’s turned mental now. Unless Roger recovers mentally there’s no comeback. It’s happening again. DAMN IT!!!!!!!!!!


Daniel Says:

After the interruption I thibk he won 1 point. Wtf. Totally iff the match. Now is really disaster


Maso Says:

Wow, another double fault. I can’t believe what I’m seeing. He’s playing like Davydenko on a bad day.


margot Says:

alison, have you started to relax yet cos Rafa’s looking very strong and determined at the mo.
Wonderful, wonderful play to break Fed in last set too.


van orten Says:

…cannot be he serves like shittttt really no first serves since the tie breaker at all


Dory Says:

Roger just not getting his 1st serve.


Maso Says:

3 break points saved… please hold, Roger…


van orten Says:

no first serves at all u cannot winnnnnn like that come on rogeerrrrr come onnnnnnnnnnnn hang in there mannnnnnnnn


Daniel Says:

He needs this game to get his foccus together and keep fighting. Saved 3 BP’s.


Daniel Says:

Even his movement is not fluid. He missed adjusent in this point last point.
Ufff. Thanks tennis gods


van orten Says:

hahahaha net corddd tennis god will are u changing sides ;-)


Dory Says:

In previous matches, something’s always died inside Roger. It should not happen again.


tfouto Says:

Can someone explain me what is happening here?

I am at work and not able to watch the game…

Is just Federer playing horrible as usual against Nadal, or Nadal is playing pretty well too?

I guess probably both.

As a Federer fan i dont agree that Nadal only plays his best against Federer. He played really well against Berdych at the end, and on other games… Federer game suits well Nadal. The same its not true for Djokovic. If Federer eclipses mentally you cant take credit out of Nadal because of it. Nadal deserves it. If Federer only have to blame itself not luck or destiny. Djokovic


S Green Says:

Since the 2nd set, Fed’s serve has been miserably poor. And that’s not a good sign.
Now he commits 2 double faults to face 3 BPs in his 1st service game of 3rd set. He saves all 3 and earns a game point. He holds with a drop volley. That’s winning psychological battle.
Rafa squanders all chances, not good for him.


BT Says:

Federer – Red shirt
Umpire – Yellow/Orange shirt
Nadal – Green shirt

Looks like a traffic light on the court! :P

Great standard of tennis from both guys.

Mirka must have such high blood pressure, she always looks stressed out of her mind, poor thing!


Dory Says:

Nadal is really serving well though against Roger.


van orten Says:

today backhand and stuff is no problem…problem is nadal serves better thats it …


Dory Says:

Nadal’s service games are really quick and Federer’s struggling with serve. :(


Maso Says:

Rafa’s serving extremely well for sure. Roger’s serving is fairly off. If he could raise his 1st serve percentage again, he’d be in business.


Daniel Says:

Federer stop returning Nadal serve and leting him play pressure free. Bizzarre mistakes lile this awfull drop.
He needs to find he serve again as he did in last points when he served. And he has to find his BH return again. The deuce serve Nadal is winning a lot of free points, unusual eve for him.


van orten Says:

wow now serve is clicking finally go go go


Dory Says:

Is this the first match ever where Roger has double faulted twice in a row? Must be.


van orten Says:

fed needs easy holds to put some pressure on nadal at his service games …thats it


Daniel Says:

Finally an easy hold. Return the serve in at least.
The only good part is that he don’t give Nadal too much rhytm


Blah Says:

well said tfouto. Federer needs this set otherwise the match wont make it past four.


Maso Says:

Roger’s BH is looking pretty good, so far.


Daniel Says:

15-15 second serve on tour forehand and he misses.


van orten Says:

fed is at 63% first serve problem is 90 percent is serving out wide…he needs more freee pointsssss


Dory Says:

What separates Djokovic here is when Nadal is serving this well, the Djoker can not only return the serve but change defense into offense.


van orten Says:

nadal wins over 70% second serve points and only 65 when his 1st serve is landing


van orten Says:

fed needs to attack rafas second serve eventually


Daniel Says:

During the fireworks interruption Fed went to the locker room. Made 4 DF after.


van orten Says:

rafa breaks here and it is over folks


Duro Says:

To save you from misery of analyzing something that became an axiom of its own long time ago:

This is outdoors, five setter, slow surface, night match.

Get the conclusion by your own who wins it and who’s gonna win it till the rest of their lives…


Daniel Says:

Other point he ia rushing to finihs the points, I am wonderin if he is feeling his back or is it was just a mental walkabout.


Dory Says:

Daniel, Fed’s 1st DF was before the fireworks.


van orten Says:

big point roger come on finish him once


Daniel Says:

True champion always find this aces under pressure.


van orten Says:

nadal is untreatable…incredible guy ..im speechlesss


Dory Says:

DF from Nadal!!! He gets nervous too. :)


van orten Says:

what can u do vs somebody who serves always big at bp


Daniel Says:

I know Dory, but he made 4 after, 1 in the game he lost the set. 2 in a row in the game he saved and 1 in the game when I posted.


Dory Says:

Roger’s broken Nadal!! I get the feeling from the crowd cheeering loudness that they want Roger to win.


Maso Says:

I’m gonna have a heart attack, this is too much!


van orten Says:

be cool baby stay cool baby come on vamos auf gehts whatever but use that fu*****g momentum maaaaaannnnnnnnnnnnnn


van orten Says:

fed is not able to capitalize …not able to 2 bloody damn ue


van orten Says:

it s very hard folks very hard …watching that match..and how fed screws himself up all the time …it s a really shame ..he loses that set we all know its over …


Daniel Says:

Unfreakinbelievavle!!!
Fed did nothing with a forehand in the middlw of rhe court.
What amazes me is how can he not be pumped up after a break and lift his game up. In both 3 seta he has a break and in 2 he lost serve right after.


Maso Says:

Damnit, you can’t squander a break like that, Roger…


Maso Says:

He’s shooting UE left and right, this is not looking good. Damnit, and he just had the break… Lacking focus, perhaps.


Wheeler Says:

Didn’t know the two screaming bitches have reached the women’s final.


S Green Says:

Fed fails to consolidate his break, so 4-4. Are we heading for another tiebreak or what?


van orten Says:

he broke first in the second broken back again and now the same thing…it is just too hard to watch


van orten Says:

i will never watch a nadal federer match,…it is just too painful…he would lose even leading him 5:0


Dory Says:

I don’t have any hopes now as Federer’s body language isn’t positive. He’s cold and doesn’t believe in himself. Losing so many chances like that..hope DjokerNole wins the other semi now and beats Nadal in the final AGAIN.


Dory Says:

If Roger takes set 3, then there’s some chance. Not otherwise.


Dory Says:

I realized yesterday btw that DjokerNole and Nadal have met more times than Nadal and Federer. That makes their rivalry 2nd to the Fedal rivalry.


van orten Says:

go roger !!!!


Maso Says:

Too many errors off the forehand side for Roger… If he’d made those two, he’d have made the break.


Daniel Says:

15-30, several Nadal second serve, which is rare and he nit the net 2 with his forehand. Funny that his backhand is more steady the whole match. Forehand errors that are crushing him.


Dory Says:

Forehand’s gone completely. Half of the time clipping the net. :(


Daniel Says:

Sh… Let on anace when he most needed. He lost a bit of confidance on this wing.


David Says:

I have a theory that players almost telepathically sense if they’re going to win or lose ahead of time. Fed looks like he knows he’s going to lose; Nadal that he’s going to win. Contrast Fed’s body language to his match against Djokovic at the French.


Maso Says:

Federer is really unlucky with the net today.


Daniel Says:

Nadal has more BH errors than Fed. His flat forehand is gone. He missed the net more than 20 times alteady.


van orten Says:

nadal not making errors federer a lot of errrormaking game over


Daniel Says:

Long time since we didn’t saw a inside out


van orten Says:

no first serve at all


van orten Says:

gooooooooo rogggerrrr vamos carajoooooo vamossss


Dory Says:

Well thank God at least he forced a tie break. PHEW!


Daniel Says:

Yeah!!! Fed saved set point. Can’t believe it.

This is it! Fed needs this set orherwise…


Daniel Says:

Argghhh


van orten Says:

another net cord come on …what is that


Dory Says:

Roger’s so CRAP at the net now.


Daniel Says:

Wow, Nadal deopshoting Fed?!?!?


van orten Says:

this is so scheisseeeeee


Daniel Says:

Have to win a point on Nadal serve now!!!


Daniel Says:

This is bad luck


Dory Says:

Please get one mini-break back Fed.


Dory Says:

COLLAPSE. OVER. FINISHED.


van orten Says:

4 points nadal 3 unforced errors federer …it is senseleessss


Daniel Says:

Inside out. He didn’t know what to do with a sitter in the midle of the court.


van orten Says:

game set and match nadal
i go back to work ..have a good time folks see u again when federer wins another slam


Daniel Says:

This ahot desertes him. Actually is merit for Fed to force a tiebreak in this set with jow many forehand errrors he did and low first serve percentage.


Daniel Says:

3 set points saved already


Maso Says:

Jesus… why does Roger have to put himself in these situations?


Daniel Says:

Wow, could he…?!


S Green Says:

Rafa wins the tiebreak after wasting what 4 chances and the 3rd set. On to the 4th.
Fed self-destructs himself in most part in this set. Lot of UEs and serve did not co-operate in the tiebreak.


Maso Says:

Turning into a nightmare situation… I’m sick of Roger choking in the important moments against Nadal. Credit to Rafa for maintaining the level all the time against Roger, but it’s really a disease when Fed faces him…


Daniel Says:

Sh… Bread and butter for Nadal. Serve on BH, he didn’t even force it and inside out forehand deep.

Fed serve first fourth set. Maybe if realizes he nas nothing to lose anymore and start playing frey again. But all bets are with Nadal now.


van orten Says:

so people one more word…tennis gods are against federer he is simply not able to win vs nadal even when not even nadal is playing his best…making lots of errrors on bh side..but what federer does is unaccaptable…from the 7 points in tie break 5 errors federer 5 !!!! that is really sad that he screws himself over and over again vs nadal


Dory Says:

Fed’s game has collapsed once again due to mental block. He doesn’t make UEs in one set against ANYONE except Nadal.


Maso Says:

Squandered the break he had when he was up at 4-3. Lets Rafa get to 6-1 in the tie break with ridiculous forehand errors. The kind of errors he made throughout the whole set. What the hell is going on? Whoever said this is like groundhog day is bloody right, it’s exactly like it. Time after time, the same crap happens.


Dory Says:

Sorry I meant he doesn’t make 25 UEs in one set against anyone except Nadal.


Maso Says:

It’s true, Dory, it’s really mental. Fed has got a serious mental blockage when facing Rafa. Whereas Rafa has no complex when it comes down to beating Roger, he’s done it so many times…


tfouto Says:

This is just bs…

Its just on Federer head… How can he make stupid errors until 6-1 on tie-break and then start making winners BH and FH. Nadal is always there. Constant. Federer is making really stupid erros then winners… Its just Federer eclipsing itself.


Dory Says:

I thought Novak turning the tables on Rafa would inspire Roger and allow him to get rid of his mental block. Even now Roger’s playing well once in a while when he’d behind but CRAP when he’s ahead.


Maso Says:

I am so depressed watching this… it’s been 5 years since we haven’t seen Roger beat Rafa in a slam and perhaps it’s never gonna happen again. Roger’s still got a chance but he’s gonna have to play a lot more consistently than he is right now.


Daniel Says:

Jesus, he cannot hit a flat forehand anymore


Maso Says:

@Daniel

I know, he hasn’t pulled one off properly since he started choking after the fireworks.


Maso Says:

CRAP, break point…


S Green Says:

Despite playing a lot better than Nadal and executing his strategies in most part, Federer is down 2 sets to 1. Bizarre.


Daniel Says:

Well, with no confidance in his forehand, not muvh he can do. He has to achieve a 1 miss every 2-3 games to have a chance. 1 every 5 points win’t do.
At least he saved this BP. Maybe Nadal will have an off service game with lota of second serve. Wait, he already did in ser 3, Fed brike and ger broken right after:)


Maso Says:

@Green

If he actually managed to hit his forehand properly, he probably wouldn’t be in this god forsaken situation. The serve saved him in this game.


van orten Says:

he had it all set up nicely …i mean he reached the breaker saving set point…if loses the point at 5:6 TB anyways why the hell didnt he high risk anything

nadal wont make the error wont give in…nadal is hitting to feds bh 90 % of the time what what won him the to sets is feds forehand


Maso Says:

Wow, Fed still making these terrible forehand errors… I don’t see how he can win this one by playing this way. And what a passing shot by Nadal to get to 15-40.


Daniel Says:

I think is his lega or movement, he has no precision on forehand flat anymore.


van orten Says:

good night!!!! now really


Daniel Says:

Only his serve can save him long enough for him to try to find his forehand again.


Daniel Says:

Good hold!!
Live to fight another serve game:)


Maso Says:

Holy crap, what a rally. Roger’s slice saved his ass in this one, phew. But nonetheless, if he doesn’t raise his level of game anytime soon, it’ll be a 4 set affair and pretty quickly. But we gotta keep believing. COME ON, ROG!


S Green Says:

Fed saved 2 BPs big time to hold, 3-2. He has to believe he is in it to win.


Maso Says:

So many errors from Rog, he’s already made more than 50. Shades of RG07…


Daniel Says:

Nadal is so confidant that he is going to aces on Fed’s forehand in the ad side, when he usually go for the BH.


Dory Says:

I look forward to the day this year when Novak’s head to head against Nadal will be better. Then at least Roger fans have an argument that head to head against only one player doesn’t count more than your total achievements. Novak’s head to head against Rafa will be better that day but still trailing in other areas. Like the case is with Nadal against Federer.


Maso Says:

YES! Good hold, Roger. He needed to take it at 40-15. Can’t let Rafa back in. Now would be a splendid time to break but considering how few points Rog has taken off the Nadal serve this set, seems unlikely.


Daniel Says:

Alert, forehand flat DTL is back! Easy hold before the storm. Fr now onwards is pressure time until this set is finished.


Dory Says:

Break Roger break break break please.


Daniel Says:

Right choice, inside out for a clean winner. Out bu a finger.


Dory Says:

Throughout today’s match, Nadal has hit winners on Fed’s FH corner and won. Fed isn’t defending his FH side well.


Daniel Says:

Hold Fed and break to start serving the fifht. Wishfull thinking:)


Daniel Says:

Who doesn’t do take!


Daniel Says:

What was this 157 kmh first serve on hame point. Another BP. Feel
Like this is it


Dory Says:

Only DjokerNole can outhit Nadal in such matches.


Maso Says:

And here we go… Nadal serving for the match. Why do I bother watching tennis anymore, I wonder…


Dory Says:

I hope DjokerNole wins tomorrow or else it’s Slam No.11 for Nadal. DjokerNole only slowed him down but it will be Fed fans’ worst nightmare if Nadal can catch up to 16.


Daniel Says:

Sh… Hate being right.

Is always like this. It would be better if he didn’t even had that BP on 4-4. Now Nadal serving for the match.


amol Says:

those who don’t have respect for Nadal….are IDIOTS…..same goes for federer…two class acts


Dory Says:

If Muzza reaches the final, he stands no chance against Nadal in this form.


Maso Says:

WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH YOUR FOREHAND, ROGER?! This is just infuriating. That’s his best damn shot. He lost the whole match on that DAMNED FH!


van orten Says:

Fed deserved a 5 th set…but …


Maso Says:

Betrayed by the forehand yet again. He should be up 0-40 right now, if the forehand were working properly. I’m gonna pull my hair out.


kriket Says:

Same old story, match point Nadal.


Maso Says:

And the glimmer of hope, just to make us even more pissed off when Roger misses his chance to break again… or maybe not?


Dory Says:

Can he turn it around from match point?


Maso Says:

NADAL IS SO LUCKY, OH MY GOD!


Daniel Says:

Blah, tfouto. Tell me this isn’t luck. BP down and he trow the ball to the moom and it land in the line?!


Maso Says:

Gigamongous luck is what it is. I even have to make up words for it.


Dory Says:

I don’t that’s luck. That’s Nadal’s incredible ability to fetch balls from unbelievable positions.


Maso Says:

And match point #2…


alison hodge Says:

hi margot sorry ill relax when its over,when i here the fat lady sing lol.


Dory Says:

Ouch. It still hurts.


Daniel Says:

Congrats Nadal. 4 Slam finals in a row. Great achievement.


Maso Says:

And the forehand betrays Roger again. 8-2 for Nadal in slams. … This is tougher and tougher to swallow. I feel so sad for Rog.


Humble Rafa Says:

There is one thing you can always count on your Humble Highness.

On all courts except carpet (and injury at the end of the year), Humble owns the Arrogant One.


S Green Says:

Federer wins the match on the court, but Rafa wins in the scoreboard. Federer was again mentally fragile.
That’s how I’d sum up the match.
Congrats to both.

Stat: Fed-Rafa—64-36 unforced errors and 45-36 winners (in my count).
Length of match: 3 hrs 42 minutes.


van orten Says:

ow everybody needs to accept Tennis gods are against fed…on the line .. no way u can win nadal is worse than tooth ache .


Maso Says:

It hurts more and more, Dory, to be honest. I am absolutely sick of Roger losing to Rafa. The word sick doesn’t even begin to describe it. I can barely understand how it happens time after time that Roger messes up the exact same match against Rafa. It is downright unbelievable. Congrats to Rafa fan, his consistency is frightening.


Dory Says:

This was their 27th meeting and if Djokovic wins tomorrow it will be Nole’s 30th meeting with Nadal.


tfouto Says:

Congratulation for Nadal fans…

Kimberly seems that all your 3 players won…


racquet Says:

Fantastic match! Poor Federer but Rafa totally deserved the win.


Maso Says:

I honestly don’t know what to say… For the first time, I’d almost like Rog to retire just so I don’t have to see him get beat by Nadal again. It’s absolutely traumatizing. Didn’t even take it to 5 sets on a hard court. Rafa’s still in his prime and Rog’s definitely on the decline, sad. In 09, his serve failed him. This year, the forehand. THE FOREHAND!


Daniel Says:

Again we saw no consistant serving in a Slam bu Fed. But his forehand being of and at the net more than 20 times was the most bizarre of this match.

As usual. Great fight from both, some magical moments but Nadal setring straight that Roger won’t beat him in a Slam again, maube US Open if it is bot the final.

Djoko better win for us to see if Rafa can solve the Djoko puzzle and set fire in the season. Murray has no chance, less than Almagro and Berdych combined agaisnt Nadal.


Ike Says:

let the analysis begin :)


Maso Says:

This week end it was the Niners and now it’s Roger. These have been some terrible sports days for me, I have to admit.


Dory Says:

Congrats to Nadal fans. He’s absolutely unbelievable. Anyone who’s given up in life should take inspiration from Nadal.


Blah Says:

Well, that match was nadal-federer in a nutshell


racquet Says:

^^let the analysis begin

Simple put, Rafa has a room in Federer’s head and can’t figure out how to evict him.


Dory Says:

He beat Nadal in the World Tour Finals but in Slams, it really seems impossible. Never is it going to happen again, never.


Blah Says:

here’s a stat: federer had as many ues on his forehand wing alone (36) as nadal’s total ues for the match. Yeah.


Dory Says:

My hope now is from this point on the Djoker-Nadal rivalry becomes the greatest ever one. For that Novak will have to come close to Nadal’s number of Slams.


racquet Says:

Now I really hope Sean posts a article called “Why Djokovic Will Beat Murray tomorrow” ;)


margot Says:

What a fabulous match. A privilege to watch especially from a “neutral” point of view. Congrats to Rafa butwell played Roger!
S Green: am saying to grendel that he must be pleased that Roger was out-played not out-bullied, but you are effectively saying the opposite. Interesting.


Wheeler Says:

Everyone which screaming bitch do you support?


Krishna Says:

Aus Open is pretty much a clay court painted blue.. oh well..there are truly no more “fast” courts at the Grand Slams.. otherwise we would see Roger killing Rafa like he did at WTF..


dari Says:

The failure of fed at big points is astonishing
Still my champ,though, hes just gotta pick it up and keep moving!
Had no expectations foe the match, so I’m not feeling too bad, but dear poor fed, how can he not hate nadal and himself rigjt now?!

Murray can rectify this whole thing by winning the next two matches :)


Krishna Says:

I hope Djokovic whips Nadal again..for that to happen..Djoker needs to beat Murray..hopefully he can do that tomorrow..


Blah Says:

Oh, and still not lucky.


margot Says:

racquet: Yes! Let’s have another jinxy jinx :) Only need jamie’s psychic now!


Dory Says:

Looking at the bright side, Rafa is the only one who troubles Federer this way. Thankfully there’s no other players and Federer’s records aren’t going to be eclipsed anytime soon. Soon a day will arrive when DjokerNole will overtake Rafa in 16-13 head to head.

Bye I’m signing off.


roy Says:

federer’s forehand has ‘so many’ unforced errors because he’s playing high risk and because nadal’s defense is so good.
you cannot expect to play aggressive shots and not pay a price. you federer fans watch too many highlight reels and not enough full matches against quality ball strikers.

federer’s serve seems to under perform against nadal because nadal is one of the best returners in the world.

check federer’s old match stats against davydenko, you’ll find his first serve points won are in the 60% range on hard courts, well below his average. same reason, and it’s not a mental issue.

point is, federer isn’t dropping his level against nadal, he simply cannot dominate like he does against weaker opponents. he is outplayed.


solar Says:

Federer IS droping his level, he just cant keep his level day in day out, one day good other bad, terible match to watch, unforced errors were coming randomly…


The fighter Says:

yay!!!!! Rafa congrats


jamie Says:

Djokovic beats Murray in the SF.

Then Djokovic beats Nadal in the final.


Brando Says:

Yes rafa! Love the guys attitude, re on court interview, how andy shouldn’t take his advice for nole as he has lost 6 times in a row to him! To be able to smile knowing that, just shows what a standup guy he is.

As for roger- a really good effort. He’s 30 and he is reaching SF at slams and competing hard against guys 5 years younger than him- says it all for me!

He hasn’t got a thing to prove. Good luck to him for the rest of the season.

As for andy v nole- the closer it gets to the match one feels that it is 60/40 in nole’s favour. Andy really has to play his best match ever i feel in order to win. Good luck to him.


Michael Says:

Something is wrong with Roger when he plays Nadal. Today he was serving well, but his game was not clicking and he was making far too unforced errors by any standards – about 60 which is abysmal to win a match. Nadal always seems to play well especially against Roger and he was hitting winners from impossible angles and he was covering the court just like he was playing Table Tennis. Whenever Roger hits some shots with his forehand down the line which was always presumed to be a winner, Nadal had an answer from an incredible angle. Exactly the shots he hit against Roger, he is not hitting those against Novak for instance where he misses. Even at 5-4 in the fourth set when Nadal was serving for the match, Roger had a break point opportunity and I though he hit a winner deep in the right edge of the court, but out of nowhere, Nadal was there hitting a lob which Roger just hit back to the net taken by surprise. That shot sealed the match and Roger should lost it in his mind that it was just not his day.


Michael Says:

Where was the backhand slice of Federer that he effectively used against Tomas and Delpo ?? That shot was just not visible the whole of the match when Roger was only trying to play too aggressive with his backhand and was in a hurry to finish the point. That mindset made him commit a lot of unforced errors which is too many in such a big match.


alison hodge Says:

daniel yeah great achievement for rafa,4th final in a row,also his 15th final overall,all by the age of 25,and to think people say hes not consistent,good luck to muzza against nole tomorrow,sorry for all the fed fans too,especially swiss maestro even though he doesnt seem to be checking in these days,the sweetest fed fan on the forum,to be honest fed deserved to and should have gone on to win,i just think its between the ears when roger faces rafa,but i still believe even though its not much consolation atm,that roger will go on to win more slams yet.


solar Says:

3 unforced errors to finish match – says it all.


Michael Says:

You have to give the devil its due. Nadal played a blemishless match and won. You need to expect that from Nadal and his strongest point is that his first serves never fail to register a high percentage in a match. The only time I saw a shrink in that column was in the Indian Wells when he played against Novak when his first serve percentage was just 25%. Today, Nadal played well even that he did in 2009 and deservingly won the match against a erratic Roger. Might be Nadal pressurized Roger to commit such errors and he played a wonderful match. All the credit to Nadal and his Team.


solar Says:

Very often Djokovic or Nadal catches him in suprise – too often, breaks back or breaks just before serving for the match – Roger is like sleeping, should be ready for suprises, not a kid…


dari Says:

One thing is for sure though, you can’t stay mad/sad about the fed loss cause sets 1 and four were amazing. Thanks to rafa and rog for the early am tennis to start the day!
Bummer what happens to fed at these big moments, but gotta keep in perspective of getting to see some great tennis and the kind of tension and excitement these two bring!
I’m ready for the next.matches to be thrillers, too! I will also accept Andy M magically crushing both guys


Michael Says:

Alison, Let us hope that Roger goes on to win more majors. But I doubt it even being his fan. I just think he is not able to beat the fearsome two on a consistent basis. He is somewhat confident against Novak, but just too inconsistent against Nadal. Might be it is his fate that when ranged against Roger, Nadal always plays his very best Tennis which does not happen against many other players.


Jerry Says:

wow what a great prediction you were spot on again…… NOT


Daniel Says:

Sometimes one shot can make the diffrence. In RG 2009 versus Haas he hit an inside out forehand on BP. In, agaisnt Delpo in the same tourney, he hit a similar shot.

Today, fourth set 4-4 BP and he wen for an inside out forehand winner, this time it was out (the tone of his forehand from after the firework interruption). Had that ball went in, who knows, he would serve for the fourth.

But trhought the qhole match. His forehand went off agter end set 2 and never came back really. Nadal decreased some errors in the BH and played once again smart, but didn’t made a superb match himself. He is still playing to short compared to 2008 and 2010, but credit for him for again wining the locker room figght.


tennisfan Says:

Roger was defeated because of his own stubbornness…If only he could have hit more to Nadal’s backhand!
Rafa is really in Roger’s head, that’s confiremd full and final!

My take:
Roger Federer- Responsible for his own Downfall? http://bit.ly/zpv4QI

But not to take away anything from Nadal who played really well and stuck to his game plan as always!


Wheeler Says:

Federer will never win Slam No. 17. For Federer to win a Slam, let’s be realistic here.
1. Nadal must not be in Federer’s draw
2. Nadal must be defeated by someone else. The only guy who has beat Nadal in Slams consistently is Djokovic (no Murray, no Delpo don’t count as they haven’t beaten Nadal as consistently as Djokovic).

With Djokovic and Nadal ranked 1 and 2, there is no chance that Federer will not have to face Nadal in a Slam. Which means HE WILL NEVER WIN ANOTHER SLAM.


Lulu Iberica Says:

I don’t know Roy. I’m a Nadal fan, but it really does seem like there are times when Fed makes a lot of UEs on easy shots against Rafa; still, you do have to credit Nadal for maintaining relentless pressure on Fed.

I saw the second set tiebreak & the last two sets and I thought Rafa was still too far behind the baseline and hitting balls too short. Once he was behind the Melbourne sign, and of course hit the net. He’s not going to win against Nole like that.

I’m sorry for the Fed fans, but your guy has 16 grand slams! I don’t think anyone will be surpassing that number anytime soon.


alison hodge Says:

michael i agree it wont be easy,but he may get an element of luck for it to happen,like someone taking out one or the other in the draw,so he would not have to beat both.


Michael Says:

I pity Murray in case he comes to the finals with Nadal in such fine form staging a big upset against Novak. If that is the case, then Nadal can prepare for receiving the trophy even before a ball is being played. Murray is a very good player. I have no doubt about it. But he is really not good enough to stand against Nadal/Roger/Novak in slam finals where he most often than not chickened out. The only man who is capable of beating Nadal in this form is Novak. I will repeat that again and again.


van orten Says:

I wouldn’t say nadal Was lucky he played great but Fed was dwf. unlucky at bp at 4:3 and bp at .4:5 in the fourth..the matcj deserved a 5 th but cant help myself I want Djoker winning it all now…


Michael Says:

Alison, Yeah you need that element of luck to win. Anyway 16 is good enough figure for Roger and he can be contended with it. If he is try for more majors then he has to bear such ignominy in the rest of his career and there might come a day when might be we do not have Nadal or Novak standing in his way in the tournament and falling early. Then may be Roger will have his day. But that should wait given the consistency level of Nadal and Novak.


Brando Says:

I wouldn’t say never with roger, re winning a slam. ABSOLUTELY ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.

He’s just reached a slam SF were he lost, in 4 sets, all well contested except for set 2 against a guy who he has long struggled against. No shame about that, rafa is a 10 times slam winner.

Nothing new, and certainly not enough to say he won’t win another slam. Roger has a very good chance, as good as any at wimby and USO.

IF he gets rafa at wimby: 50/50 i say. At the USO: roger has a greater chance there than anywhere else.

I would also say that roger can take novak and andy out moreso at those to slams than the AUS Open.

So NO WAY can one say his slam winning days are over. He fought well today and will continue to do so.


Brando Says:

I wouldn’t say never with roger, re winning a slam. ABSOLUTELY ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.

He’s just reached a slam SF were he lost, in 4 sets, all well contested except for set 2 against a guy who he has long struggled against. No shame about that, rafa is a 10 times slam winner.

Nothing new, and certainly not enough to say he won’t win another slam. Roger has a very good chance, as good as any at wimby and USO.

IF he gets rafa at wimby: 50/50 i say. At the USO: roger has a greater chance there than anywhere else.

I would also say that roger can take novak and andy out moreso at those to slams than the AUS Open.

So NO WAY can one say his slam winning days are over. He fought well today and will continue to do so.


al Says:

Sean, please DON’T predict Nole will win tomorrow, I beg you!!


alison hodge Says:

michael you never know,hopefully it will be less pressure for muzza to face nole in the semis rather than a final again,same theory applied to roger against rafa,even though it didnt work out like that in the end,everyone got what they wanted nole/muzza,and rafa/roger in the same half of the draw,as the saying goes be carefull what you wish for.


Michael Says:

Alison, I hope it is a Nadal-Novak final. Nadal too needs to prove a point here,not that he has not done already ? He needs to beat the player who has beat him six straight times in important tour finals. What better way to do it than to beat him on that Super Sunday ?? But I do not think Novak will play Nadal the way Roger does. He has a different plan to play with Rafa because he is another imitation of Rafa and might beat him in his own game. If it is Novak-Rafa I would say it would be 55:45 with Nadal in such blistering form.


alison hodge Says:

michael yeah all gravy now for roger anyway,and to a certain extent rafa too(except for a wtf for rafa,thats pretty much it),both could retire now with there heads held high,with nothing left to prove,although i hope that wont be for a while yet.


Federer Has No Answer Again For Nadal In Australian Open Semifinal, Is This It For The Swiss? Says:

[...] it’s indoors or on a grass court, I’m done thinking Roger Federer can beat Rafael Nadal anymore. On clay or on outdoor hardcourt in big matches, best-of-five Federer simply doesn’t have an [...]


Michael Says:

Brando,

I appreciate your sense of optimism which I also share being a Roger fan. But there are things which stare us in the face. Roger is not getting younger and you have the fearsome two namely Novak and Rafa who are pretty consistent.


WTF Says:

Guess Sean doesn’t look too clever now eh?


Wheeler Says:

It’s 2012 and Federer isn’t getting any younger. Let’s go back in reverse and see the occasions when Roger won Slams.
1 2010 Aus Open: Nadal was defeated by Murray in QFs and Fed eventually defeated Murray
2. 2009 Wimbledon: Nadal was absent
3. 2009 French Open: Nadal was defeated by Soderling in 4th rnd and Fed eventually defeated Soderling
4. 2008 US Open: Nadal was defeated by Murray in SFs and Fed eventually defeated Murray
5. 2007 US Open: Nadal was defeated by Ferrer in 4th round, Djokovic defeated Ferrer and Fed eventually defeated Djokovic
…Before that is 2007 Wimbledon.

Federer was in his prime till 2007 mostly. There is absolutely no chance for Roger to win a Slam as long as Nadal is around in the semis or finals. Djokovic can’t meet Nadal except in a final because of their ranking. So 16 is the last number Fed will be stuck at unless Nadal like 2009 Wimbledon is unable to participate.


Brando Says:

Classy interview from roger:

http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/news/interviews/2012-01-27/201201261327585747638.html

I agree rafa plays better against roger than the rest. Why?

The answer is simple. Rafa thinks roger is the best, so he has to play at his best since anything less will not suffice.

I think its a compliment for roger.


CryBabyFan Says:

I can’t believe there’s still a bunch of Federer’s fan who thinks he can beat Rafa in a Grand Slam. And after proven wrong yet again, you are now running to Djoker, a player you hated before, wishing he beats Rafa. How pathetic is that. But be that as it may, the fact still remains that your guy was beaten by Rafa.


rogerafa Says:

” ow everybody needs to accept Tennis gods are against fed”

They have been more than kind to Roger. He has gotten more than any tennis player has ever been able to get. The Gods decided that it was time to let others also have something. They created Rafa to keep Roger grounded lest the tennis world started calling him the god. They sent Novak to stop Rafa from feeling the same. I wonder when the Gods will turn benevolent towards Murray. Maybe they will let Novak win a few more before they start shutting the window.


jamie Says:

The winner of Djokovic-Murray SF will win the AO.


Humble Rafa Says:

Thanks for all the congratulatory message. Thanks for the love.


marrisv Says:

Congrats to all rafa fans. Commiserations to Fed fans.

What a fightback from Rafa!!!. Phew… Now i can breathe easy for the next two days and enjoy the Djokovic/Murray match.

2011 AO – Novak beat Berdych in QF, Fed in Semis and Murray in the final last year for the title…

2012 AO – Rafa beat Berdych in QF, Fed in Semis and maybe just maybe Muzzzzzaaa….??? :)

Djoker -Murray should be a cracker. Whoever wins this second semi, lets hope for a great final…


rogerafa Says:

@ jamie

” The winner of Djokovic-Murray SF will win the AO.”

Is this your opinion or your Psychic’s prediction?Her credibility has taken a severe hit with all the other results contradicting her. The only player left is Novak and you seem to be diluting that also with your latest comment. Wasn’t Novak’s chart perfect? It was after a detailed reading, wasn’t it? I think the winner of the match between Rafa and the winner of Djokovic-Murray SF will take the AO ;)


I like tennis bullies Says:

“Why Roger Federer Will Beat Rafael Nadal Tomorrow In The Australian Open Semifinals
by Sean Randall”

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margot Says:

rogerafa: that prediction is just truly amazing, I am gob smacked. It will prove to be 100% accurate, I’m sure. A new career awaits you.
sean: where is your article “Why Novak Djkovich will win the second semi final?” As soon as I read that, I’ll have such sweet dreams…;)


Raj Says:

/*What I like about Roger, though, is that he’s won 24 straight matches, a streak that could have stretched even longer had Djokovic not ripped a winner down match point at the US Open.

His prior Grand Slam loss was took place when he was up two sets on Tsonga but choked it away.

At the French, well, that’s a no win against Nadal on clay.

Fact is, despite crushing losses to Tsonga and Djokovic in his last two Slams, he somehow has still kept it together*/

See,how the sean’s mind overtakes the brain…Well,rafa had better results than him in GS during the past 4 slams


Michael Says:

Might be we had too much expectations from Roger which he was not able to fulfil. But this is a big disappointment especially since it is against Nadal and that too in his favourite hard court and in a slam which he has won about four times and consistently reached the semi-final around eight times whereas Nadal hs reached just two finals and a semi-final. It definitely hurts to see Roger losing here to Nadal.

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1 Novak Djokovic1 Serena Williams
2 Rafael Nadal2 Na Li
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6 David Ferrer6 Maria Sharapova
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