Federer Looks Better, but Djokovic Next; Nadal Remains Unbeatable in Rome
by Sean Randall | May 1st, 2009, 10:41 pm
  • 108 Comments

It’s a return to the old norm with the Big Three – Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic – all advancing this week to a major tennis tournament semifinal, the Rome Tennis Masters. Fernando Gonzalez will try to assume the role of party crasher, but good luck to the Chilean who’ll have to knock off Nadal.

All eyes though will likely be on the first semifinal between Djokovic and Federer. Of the triplets, one could argue that it’s Djokovic who’s playing at the highest level. Since pushed to a tiebreak in the second round against Albert Montanes, the Serb lost just nine games in his last five sets, and that’s against some sturdy competition in Tommy Robredo and Juan Martin Del Potro.

After a very poor start to the clay season, Federer has really sharpened his game in Rome. Let’s face it, though, Roger hasn’t faced the toughest of draws but he does seem to have cut down on the errors which plagued his game in on the hardcourts in March, and he’s serving a little better. A sign of things to come for the former World No. 1? Perhaps. Tomorrow is the real test against Novak.

In 10 meetings it’s Federer with the decided 7-3 edge over Novak who did win their most recent rumble coming during an error-filled, racquet-smashing performance from Federer in Miami. I cannot imagine Federer plays that bad again tomorrow. For if Roger’s not on his game he’ll surely lose because Djokovic is playing his best tennis of the year. But will it be enough? Hard to say.

The way both are playing I think this match is in Novak’s hands and probably for the first time in his career he’s the betting favorite against Federer. If Novak plays like he’s been playing he should win regardless of Federer who I don’t think has that jaw-dropping “peak form” that we’ve seen in the past at his disposal right now. So I’m actually going to pick Novak in this one. At this moment, he’s the better guy on clay. It’s his time, he’s the favorite, but can he seize it? Somehow I think so.

In the second semifinal, it’s a rematch of the 2007 Rome final with Nadal and Gonzo. Nadal has won 10 straight sets against Fernando and after tomorrow’s tussle I suspect that streak will swell to 12. I think Gonzo actually has the kind of game that can really to damage to Nadal.

Like his namesake Fernando Verdasco who was impressively expunged by Rafa earlier today, this Fernando also hits the ball hard and flat and an take advantage of some of Nadal’s “clay weaknesses” (I say that almost jokingly!) like his serve and court positioning by playing first strike tennis. But, like Verdasco, I just don’t think Gonzalez has enough between the ears to maintain a level necessary to defeat Nadal over the course of an entire match. So it’s Nadal winning in straight sets.

Regardless the scoreline, Gonzales v. Nadal will be entertaining as I fully expect Fernando to be going for broke at every opportunity. While in the earlier semifinal Djokovic could easily run away with it if Federer comes out in a funk. Let’s hope Roger doesn’t as I’m anxious to see how they both respond in a tight situation with their roles reversed. Novak the favorite. Federer the underdog. Interesting!


Also Check Out:
Back To Red: Can Nadal, Djokovic Regain Their Form In Rome?
Nadal Handed Madrid Title by Nishikori
Novak Djokovic’s Physio: He Should Be Ready For Rome And The French Open
Nadal Wins Title, Djokovic Ranking Drop in Rome
Roger Federer Will Play In Rome!

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108 Comments for Federer Looks Better, but Djokovic Next; Nadal Remains Unbeatable in Rome

Kimmi Says:

I think Federer needs to win this match big time. If he loses here, I can’t see him recover soon enough. There is big tournaments coming up were he is defending huge points. Because of that he needs to win this to build that confidence early.


JoshDragon Says:

Should be some great matches. I’m looking forward to it.:)


Shan Says:

Randall you got Nadal right but I’m still betting on Federer against Djokovic


TD (Tam) Says:

I agree with Sean’s analysis if Novack can keep his wits about him he will get his first win over Federer on clay, he is player better of the two.

Poor Gonzalez! nobody is giving him a chance in hell of causing an upset?

I hope it will be a Nadal and Dokovic final I think at this point it would be a more competitive match than any of the Rafa and Roger finals of late.

Good evening to all and good luck to everybody’s favourites!


TD (Tam) Says:

Von , are you still around?

Did you know that our Andy was using twitter this week instead of playing? He is very funny!

http://twitter.com/andyroddick


Von Says:

TD(Tam):

I didn’t know about Roddick using twitter. Thanks for the link. I think he’s still on his honeymoon. He is scheduled to play in Madrid, so hopefullly we’ll see him soon.

_______________
It’s hard to pick the winner of the Djoko/Federer match, and since I’m a fan of neither players, all i can say is, may the best man win. I’d also like to see a great match, so here’s hoping for a classic.


jane Says:

I agree: tough to pick a winner here. I am hoping Djoko can pull this one off, but it comes down to the better player on the day. Hope it’s a good match! And I hope Fernando goes down in a blaze of glory!


tennisfan Says:

Hello everybody……I think tomorrow is going to be a cool day for tennis fans to watch some great matches…..In the first semifinal we have Novak Djokovic who is just entering his peak years in tennis going against a player who is on the backside of his career in Roger Federer who is trying to win the French Open to become the greatest of all times……In the other semifinal we have Rafael Nadal who is on his way to becoming the greatest clay court player of all times against the power forehand and aggressive style of Fernando Gonzales…..So I think it is going to be a very good day in Rome Masters 1000 event……I will also say I think the match between Federer and Djokovic has very important ramifications going forward this year at the french open and wimbeldon……I usually do not give predictions but here is mine……

Semifinal#1 djokovic def. federer
7-5,7-5

Semifinal#2 Nadal def. Gonzales
6-3,6-1

Final Nadal def. Djokovic
6-4,6-4


JoshDragon Says:

Federer, seems like he’s playing pretty well in Rome. I’m going to pick him to win over Djokovic, because their head-to-head favors him. Although, I wouldn’t be surprised if the match was very close. Narrow 3 sets win for Fed.


NachoF Says:

If the match goes to three sets Federer will surely lose.


blah Says:

I am sure that a good performance will boost Federer’s confidence, but does he really want to face Nadal in the finals… I suppose that at this point it’s better to be beaten by Nadal than anyone else though I am not sure whether that will mess up his mind even more… I think Djokovic will win anyway but I am interested to see how close the contest will be.


blah Says:

Looks like Federer will most likely be ranked number two going into French Open… I guess Murray and Djokovic would just have to hope that they land on Roger’s side of the draw. If it gets to a Nadal Djokovic final in Rome I could see Djokovic coming out on top. That would be huge going into FO, as I see him as the number one challenge for Nadal’s FO title this year… He’s better than Federer imo (I guess the rome semis will tell) and he also has a more consistent game/game that matches up better against Nadal on clay compared to Murray.


Janadev Says:

Blah,

Losing to Nadal may not be a problem for Federer at this juncture. In addition he will get to know what needs to be done in FO against Nadal(though nothing did work out against Nadal for Federer till now). A win on Djkovic and reaching Finals will further boost his confidence..

In the End.. it’s Vamos Rafa :-)


blah Says:

Also- does anyone think Del Potro is overrated? Outside of that fluky win against Nadal has he beaten the top four ever? (Not trying to discredit him or make an excuse for Nadal, just my honest opinion.) I think he may have beat Murray once but that was a completely different Murray years ago.

He was absolutely thrashed by Federer in AO and really doesn’t have that many weapons. His serve is less than what it should be for a guy his size, he has a huge back swing yet his ground strokes are not that great, and while he moves well for a guy his size, he’s not among the best in court coverage and I don’t think he can out grind the top players.

Out of the group of young guns that came up last year, I am thinking that only Tsonga (and Andy Murray duh) has the weapons to stay relevant in slams, and even he is injury prone/inconsistent.
Perhaps these guys will do something at USO or perhaps Gasquet will wake up at Wimbledon? I am not counting on the latter, but I am not willing to accept reality just yet…


ertorque Says:

My feeling would be that Djokovic wins the match even though I am a Fed fan. I just cannot help visualizing Fed making errors on his backhand when trading groundstrokes with Djoko especially those high ones over his shoulder or hitting short such that Djoko puts him in a defensive posititon on his next shot (familar scenarios when he plays against Nadal?) . So far coming to the semis I don’t see Fed’s vanquished opponents play in this manner engaging him in long baseline rallies with lots of high trajectories to his backhand but I think Djoko will definitely exploit this. After having said that, I still hope Fed can emerge the winner……..


Tj Says:

NachoF:

If the match goes to three sets, I think Federer has more chance of winning.
Federer’s has no problem with his fitness. I just think he need to get his mind straight and if he can play his game with his exceptional skills, he still very much the second best claycourt player at present. Either way we will soon find out.


Santino Says:

Federer will lose again today. Nadal will win easily.


Tj Says:

blah

I watched Del Potro match against Djoko. I think I agree with you. I don’t think he is that “good” yet. But then he has shown his consistency by reaching QF or better at 3 master series this year. Maybe his best still to come..


Al Says:

I think Nole is going to wil. He has picked up his game so much over the passed few weeks. I know Federer has been talking about how much he has been training and preparing but in a tight match–I think his forehand will leave him. Nole is super confident. When both of these guys are playing at their best–I will still pick Nole–he is the more consistent of the to.


Al Says:

Sorry–meant to write “win” and “two”


Cindy_Brady Says:

I am predicting a straight sets crushing of Federer by Djokovic.

Djokovic Def Federer 6-3, 6-2

Bye bye Fed…


Kimmi Says:

Please no predictions anymore. Fed manage the 1st set. Excellent.


Sean Randall Says:

Federer takes the first set 6-4. Strange conclusion with the fan yelling out just before Novak was broken. Let’s see if he can regroup or maybe he folds.


Daniel Says:

Even though Djoko faced an interruption that cost him his concentration and service game, this set was in Fed’s hand. Djoko was surviving! Fed didn’t face a single deuce game on his serve and he treatened Djokos serve in the 1st, 5th and 9th game. The low ball into djoko’s backhadn was an excelent bait for Fed.
Very high quaity match so far, Djoko made some awesome passing shots.


Sean Randall Says:

Too bad. Rain has begun with Federer leading 2-1 with a break. If anything this should help Novak get his head back on.


sam Says:

fed is leading by set and a break in 2nd set………


Al Says:

All I can say is thank goodness for the rain! Hopefully Nole can refocus! Come on NOLE!


Kimmi Says:

I hope Fed does not lose the plot when he comes back.


Ezorra Says:

It seems like training with Paganini and Koubek is much more effective for Roger than training with Cahill.


Shan Says:

Randall – wrong again. 0 for 2,000,000


Cindy_Brady Says:

Djokovic is a Jekyll and Hyde with his concentration. He lets things bother him too easily. His forehand imo is better than Feds is right now. At least consistency wise.

Fed looks to want this match far more than Joker does. I don’t think the rain is going to change much now.


Ra Says:

As a fan, the only thing more annoying to me than a rain delay is having woken up way too early for tennis in a far removed time zone and then waiting out a rain delay; I’m thankful in advance for Wimbledon’s new construction (although I’m not sure how all the delayed play on the other courts there will be handled).


Ra Says:

From the Rome website:

“3.35 pm: The sky still looks as black as sin but the covers are off and they’re sweeping and raking the court. The players will be back on any minute now.”


Sean Randall Says:

They are now replaying just the last game, so I would guess that play is ready to resume, otherwise they would have re-wound the tape further back. I hope.

Correction above. It wasn’t a yell that distracted Novak as I had wrote, it was a whistle!


Daniel Says:

Federer is asking for it. Severeal break points that he didn’t convert with one bad game and Djoko is a back in the match!


Kimmi Says:

Oooooooh Nooooooooo!


Sean Randall Says:

Similar to Miami, Novak now serving for the set. Looks like we have our match.


jane Says:

I hope Novak can serve better now (1st serves – more easy points!).

Cindy_Brady I agree with you that Novak lets things bother him too much. He needs to roll with the punches a little more, stay more positive.

But at least he’s got a set!


Daniel Says:

Unbelievable! 3-1 Fed break point and now 6-3 Djoko.


Sean Randall Says:

Let’s see if the pattern holds – Federer goes away against the top players in the final set.


zola Says:

hi all,
I misses the first set, but watched the secod after they came back. Seems we have a replay of Miami here.
very interesting match.


jane Says:

I don’t think the pattern will hold; it’s clear to me that Novak is not feeling it on his serve today whereas Fed seems to be serving and hold fine; in fact his serve is only getting better! Novak has faced 10 break points; Fed only 3. That’s a pretty important stat which says a lot about the serves of each guy at this point. If Novak is going to win this it looks like he may have to grind it out.


Sean Randall Says:

Fed is playing far better today then Miami. My guess is they’ll each have some break chances this final set. Novak’s under a little more pressure having to serve second.


zola Says:

Jane,
Fed seems to have troubles with both forehand and backhand. Maybe the best he is doing is serving. But he went away really easily in the second. I think whoever breaks in the third set first, can have the match. It seems to be more mental.


zola Says:

oh! Fed with two break points!


zola Says:

well, for now fed broke the pattern. Let’s see how Djoko will respond.


Kimmi Says:

So tense this match


zola Says:

now Djoko with three break points. very interesting!

he did it!

as Goodall says: “how quickly can things change!”


zola Says:

It seems two different Federers are playing. The brilliant one comes and has some great shots and the other one comes in and shanks everything!


Kimmi Says:

Good and very bad patches from both.


jane Says:

Now Fed’s going to break back again? What is this, the WTA?


zola Says:

two great points at the net . First from federer and next from Djoko! 30 all!


jane Says:

Both are channeling Jekyll & Hyde today. Sheesh. Why on earth can’t Novak get in a first serve!


Sean Randall Says:

I could see them exchanging breaks again…


jane Says:

Sean you may be right – unless … Novak can hold!


Kimmi Says:

Djoko wins the next 3 games in a row….Federer federer federer


Sean Randall Says:

I would bet another break coming! Ha!


zola Says:

oh, I went away for a second and Djoko breaks! wow!


zola Says:

see? Miami again!


jane Says:

Good god he held, with nary a first serve in sight! Bravo Novak. But wait… can he close it out?


Kimmi Says:

Federer, not the same old fed. Novak played well but federer very very poor


Kimmi Says:

Jane: Novak even does not need to serve out. Congratulations Novak fan.


jane Says:

YAHOO NOVAK!!!!


Ra Says:

Congratulations to Djokovic and his fans.


zola Says:

oh man! very disappointing for Federer, but encouraging for Djoko.
I think if Rafa wins today, his final tomorrow will be very difficult.


Sean Randall Says:

Pattern holds. Truly amazing.

Federer was up a set and a break 3-1 and had a couple points to go up two breaks and 4-1 in that second, but once again…

Credit to Novak for playing well. Fed actually didn’t play that poorly until the last few games.


zola Says:

yep, congrats to Djoko and his fans, Jane, Duro, gordon,sar,…


Duro Says:

Janeeeeeeee!!! Didn’t I tell you to see you in finals!!!


Kimmi Says:

Don’t care if he loses. But all I wanted to see was a FIGHT, and he can’t fight for it anymore.


rose Says:

very nicely done by novak…he deserves to be in the final ..hopefully it will be against nadal..congratulations novak ..


jane Says:

A note of encouragement to Fed fans: he was playing much better this event, even though it was patchy, he got to the semifinals. That’s nothing to shake a racquet at. Though I will say this: neither Roger or Novak were at their best today.


gordon Says:

Wow, what a mental match, after first set I could not even watch it. Novak made soo many service and unforced errors. Thanks God, he had the strength to re-oupe himself and win this crutial match.


jane Says:

Duuuurrrro! :-) Big smiles friend. And all of Nole’s fans.


Ra Says:

zola,

seriously? Maybe my perception is skewed here, but from what I saw the only thing Novak had going for him was that he didn’t give up (which is big, don’t get me wrong) and ended up sucking the least. No offense, I think he’s a great tennis player, but that didn’t strike me as a decisive factor today.


Daniel Says:

What’s wrong with Fed when leading 3-1????!!!!
Both times he had 3-1 he didn’t win a game after. Just Bizarre! His serve deserted him and the usual errors appear.

Djoko’s was really a fighter today defending a la Nadal and “god bless the rain” it came to compensate the yeling fan. Before that Fed was making a perfect match and Djoko was on a verge of leting it go.
Maybe it’s better this way, Djoko will be more hungry against Nadal cause his rankings will depend on it. If Fed let go 10 break points agaisnt Nadal he would be eaten alive.

Guess his A game will only shows up (and sustain) in Grand Slam, so I hope! As long as he makes semis in Masters events and final in Grand Slam he will be n.2.


Milos Says:

Now Rafa is next :)
I didn’t watch 2nd and 3rd set but things
turned out great. Greetings from Serbia to
all Djokovic fans :)


Colin Says:

Another little piece chipped from Fed’s confidence.
Even when he does play well, he can’t any longer seem to sustain his level for three sets. True, there was a distracting rain break here, but surely Roger, with his great experience, ought to be able to handle such things better than the younger man.
Even though it would prevent Murray from getting to No 3, I’d like to see Novak beat Rafa, just to quieten the Rafanatics for a while. Can’t really think it’ll happen, though.


Kimmi Says:

Colin “I’d like to see Novak beat Rafa, just to quieten the Rafanatics for a while”

Yes, the Rafanatics are too loud I agree. But Tough, too tough..


jane Says:

Three MS finals in a row for Novak; I wish he could win ONE of them, but asking him to do that against Nadal tomorrow is, well, next to impossible. But these are great results for him, even better than last year on clay.


Von Says:

Congrats to Djoko fans!

Neither man played spectacular tennis and in the end it was the usual UEs that was Federer’s downfall. Kudos to Djoko for just hanging in there and waiting for the errors to unravel Fed’s confidence.

Thus far, the best match played in Rome was Gonzalez v. Monaco. I’m hoping for a repeat of some electricity from Gonzo.


Daniel Says:

Yes, it is about time for Djoko to have a win against Nadal on clay. Three Masters final in a row, he deserves at least one! But he will have to serve a lot better than today. He is really smart, when he realize his strong serve wasn’t in he took some weight out of it and just put some first serves in.


Ra Says:

jane,

yeah, obviously I agree that neither were at their best. And I hope Novak finds a higher level tomorrow.

This week has been vaguely encouraging for Federer fans, I guess… I mean, hey, he only made it to the quarters here last year, so clearly he’s on the up and up… Ha.


Jo Says:

Fed really need to get a coach!


Kimmi Says:

If novak play Rafa.. he has to serve better and up his game way more. He will definetly not get the errors from the clay monster. To beat Nadal on clay..you have to earn it.


youyong Says:

Am a Nadal fan but why do most think that Novak will not stand a chance against him if he meets him in the final? I think Djokovic has a decent chance to win the final.


Kimmi Says:

‘This week has been vaguely encouraging for Federer fans, I guess… I mean, hey, he only made it to the quarters here last year, so clearly he’s on the up and up… Ha.”

No, he is on the down even if he reach the quaters last year, his ranking says he should reach the final. In Madrid fed will be defending the final and the way things are going..can’t see it happening.


Ra Says:

Kimmi, I was jokingly making light of the situation.

sensationalsafin, I’m beginning to think you are absolutely right about Federer being afraid to win. Rain delays, injury timeouts or what have you, either he’s got like a brain damaged level of inability to keep his concentration or some major resistance to coming out on top when he’s undoubtedly ahead.


jane Says:

Daniel, you’re right and that’s one encouraging thing about Novak lately imo. Even in “not the best matches”, e.g. Miami or today, he’s been able to make adjustments and *fight* out a win. In Miami, he backed off, played more patiently, mixed up the pace more, and targeted Fed’s unraveling forehand; today, he went for a little less. He is learning to mix patience with aggression, and he has a new fitness trainer which may also help him.

I agree with y’all. If Novak has a hope in hell tomorrow, he’ll have to serve WAY better and he’ll have to take the match, or should I say the bull, by the horns, from the get go.

I feel badly because we’re all discounting Gonzales like he doesn’t even exist! Poor guy. And I agree with Von that the Gonza vs. Monaco match was a barnburner and really, really fun to watch; even though I was hoping for Monaco, I felt happy for Gonza as he worked so hard to take that third set. I hope he can challenge Rafa today.


zola Says:

Ra,
**seriously? Maybe my perception is skewed here, but from what I saw the only thing Novak had going for him was that he didn’t give up (which is big, don’t get me wrong) and ended up sucking the least. No offense, I think he’s a great tennis player, but that didn’t strike me as a decisive factor today.
***

sorry Ra, I did not quite get your point. Can you explain a bit? What were you referring to?


Kimmi Says:

GONZO, the forehand. so far so good. Rafa is trying to go to the BH but so far he is running around OK


Von Says:

jane:

Gonzo was watching Djoko’s match today — it’s as though he’s thinking he’ll win. Right now he’s blasting Nadal with his nuclear FH, and the match is shaping up rather nicely. Back to the TV.


Ra Says:

jane, Duro, and other Djokovic fans,

it does look to me like Novak is physically stronger than a few weeks ago. To my eyes he seems to have a couple more pounds of muscle on his upper body, too. So yeah, that bodes well.


fed is afraid Says:

roger is pathetic, he is ruining a great sport, soon he will be out of the top five.


jane Says:

Von, well, good for Gonzo “thinking he’ll win”; as Novak said after Monte Carlo, it comes back to “the story of believing in yourself.” That’s the only attitude to have right? You gotta take that onto the court.

Meanwhile, Rafa just broke Gonzo. Sigh.


Ra Says:

zola,

I was unclear, sorry. You had made the comment, “I think if Rafa wins today, his final tomorrow will be very difficult.” That’s what I was asking about. It may very well be difficult, but I was surprised you made that comment based on the match we had just watched. It seems to me that Novak will have to lift his level a lot tomorrow to pose a real threat, but then Rafa certainly did not look his best yesterday either. I’m going to miss this next semi unfortunately, though, because I need to sleep.

Enjoy, all.


Ra Says:

Ok, now I’m really going to sleep, because based on the traded breaks in this current match, I seem to have woken up in tennis limbo this morning.


zola Says:

OK Ra,
I think players get better each round and the motivation for either Djoko or Federer would have a great motivation in the final.
I bet you Djoko will play much better tomorrow.

have a good night sleep.

*******

btw, 3 breaks of serve in a row. Rafa please hold!


zola Says:

OK! Rafa takes the first set. Let’s see what happens in the second.


Kimmi Says:

Looks like Gonzo believe is getting crushed slowly.


zola Says:

yay, Rafa wins, congratulations to Rafa and all his fans for another final in Rome. It will be an interesting one.


sar Says:

Great win for Novak…BRAVO
Now no one can say Novak never beat Fed on clay.


Danica Says:

Nole should thank the rain gods (whatever their names in ancient Rome :) ) for this win today.

Federer had this match in his hands while Nole was struggling. I guess, Nole had the opportunity to talk to Vajda and regroup during the break, while Fed could talk to who? Hormonal Mirka?

Anyhow… Am expecting a hard fought win for Nole tomorrow :)). It’s about time. ;)


jane Says:

Hi Danica – Nole did thank them; he admitted in his postmatch interview how important that break was in helping him to focus and change his strategies. lol re: “hormonal Mirka”. I hope you’re expectations for tomorrow are fulfilled! :)


fed is afraid Says:

beating roger is no big deal now. he stinks. if a player loses to big baby fed, that player should be shamed and embarrassed.


Von Says:

fed is afraid:

“beating roger is no big deal now. he stinks. if a player loses to big baby fed, that player should be shamed and embarrassed.”

that’s an extremely unfair statement, both to Fed and his opponents.

Fed played a very good first set and he had Djoko on the ropes during most of Djoko’s service games. Also, Fed was up a break and another was in the making, but I think the rain distracted him and he wasn’t able to capitalize on his opportunities. As I mentioned on the other thread, which Danica also mentions, Djoko got lucky with the rain, because who knows what might have happened had they played continuously. Djoko needed that break in many ways because Federer pushed him and he was close to being winded.

I’m not a fan of either player, but when we analyze their matches, we should be realistic and keep our personal feelings out of the equation, and speak on the facts as presented. Be nice!

_________________
Danica:

“hormonal” Mirka. Kudos for originality, that’s hilarious. ha, ha.

I admire you for calling it like it is, despite your allegiance to Djoko, and your assessment of today’s match was bang on.


Danica Says:

Thanks Von ;)

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