Didn’t Tiafoe blow a big lead in the juniors? I don’t know what round but I saw the tweets about it.

September 15th, 2014 at 6:22 pm

great great read, thanks Sean.

September 15th, 2014 at 6:55 pm

Good write up. I’m more bullish about Kei’s future than Marin’s at this point, simply because, as Sean writes, Marin was in an out-of-nowhere zone at the USO. We know Kei was consistently going deep against top players, and getting better. His run here seems more of a next step. Marin’s may have been a fluke.

But a few more tournaments making semis or finals would convince me Marin is real.

The argument against Federer contending is age. Everything else is garbage. He lost to Cilic when he shouldn’t have? And Novak? And Murray? Did any of them prove themselves challenging more that Fed?
Fed is old. But if keeps winning, that’s just a concept.

September 15th, 2014 at 9:37 pm

I can see Marin winning one or two more GS titles, I don’t see Kei winning GS title, not at all.
Saying that Cilic wasn’t going deep in tornaments and that he wasn’t as consistent as Kei is not quite accurate. People tend to forget that Cilic had to play Nole three times this year and that he had Nole on the ropes all three times, that tells how good he was this year, IW, FO and Wimbledon.
Cilic wins at USO are more impressive than Kei’s, if you say that he was in the zone and that it is on off you can argue the same for Kei, plus Stan didn’t play his best and Nole neither, just my opinion. Time will tell.

September 15th, 2014 at 10:01 pm

^^”one off”

September 15th, 2014 at 10:02 pm

“But Cilic’s run really did come from nowhere.”

This is true to some extent, but also not true, in a way. As Sean himself said, Cilic has always had a big game, but there were signs even this year that something had changed and that he was going to make some noise. Clearly no one – or hardly anyone? – expected him to win the US Open. However, being a Nole fan, and given that Marin had landed in Nole’s draw quite a bit this year, I watched Marin carefully in each of their matches, and saw him quite literally edging closer and closer.

First, in their match at Indian Wells, Cilic came out and blew Nole off the court in set 1. Nole reset the balance and won in the end, but it was an indication that under Goran (and “A.T.B.”, i.e., after the ban, which I think has lit a fire under Marin) Cilic was a newly determined player. That he caved or subsided in the end suggested, too, that a lot of the “old Cilic” still remained.

Second there was their match at the French Open; I’d argue this was Nole’s toughest contest at RG other than versus Rafa. Cilic won only one set, but the 4th was very, very close. Tsgona, by contrast, mustered 6 games; Raonic lost in 3 tight ones, and Gulbis showed up for a topsy-turvy match.

Finally, there was Wimbledon, where Cilic beat Berdych, a former finalist, in straight sets and then pushed Nole to a 5 set QF, but wilted in the end. Both Dimitrov and Stepanek came close but Marin and Fed were the only two players to take 2 sets off Nole there.

So, to me anyhow, there were signs that he’d break through, that he had transformed, mentally, under Goran, that he’s a more focused and determined player.

Still, it’s interesting that his wins over Berd, Fed, and Kei were all in straight sets. Would he have “wilted” again had he been taken to 5 sets like at Wimbledon? Hard to say, but intriguing to consider none the less.

Totally agree with Sean about the future of the “big four”, the new-comers, American hype, and the YE number 1 race. Possibly the fall but definitely the 2015 season promise to reveal a lot.

September 15th, 2014 at 11:04 pm

Oops – just realized that Wog boy said what I did in less words. Oh well. Six beer, then.

September 15th, 2014 at 11:05 pm

jane, if the beer is for me, I can’t have it (not on my diet list), but “Jameson” will do it;)

September 15th, 2014 at 11:13 pm

okay then wog boy. “Jameson” it is. :)

September 15th, 2014 at 11:45 pm

“like Dominic Thiem”

Theim was getting his ass kicked by Gulbis until Gulbis started cramping.

Then Theim received the biggest beat down of the tournament. He looked like a Junior against Berdych.

He has a long way to go.

September 16th, 2014 at 12:07 am

“This is true to some extent, but also not true, in a way. ”

Please. He barely got by Simon. His next 3 matches were literally out of no where. And I’ve seen quite a bit of Cilic. It makes his PED suspension a bit more eye-raising then the official “I bought some over the counter cold medicine” or whatever we were told. Actually, we were initially told he was out of Wimbledon because of his knee…

September 16th, 2014 at 12:10 am

I saw all of Tiafoe’s junior matches (and his qualies match too) and I, too, am unimpressed with his weird strokes. He is a bit of a whiner though, like most American Juniors.

September 16th, 2014 at 12:12 am

” He barely got by Simon.”

Cilic had a 0-4 record versus Simon coming into that match so that he struggled is not a surprise; he seems to be a tough match up for Marin, maybe because Simon grinds him down? He lost to Simon at the AO this year, but he beat him at the USO.

The win over Berdych was not out of nowhere either. He beat him in straights at Wimbledon too, and their H2H is currently 4-5, i.e., very even.

His win over Federer, in the manner in which is happened, was surprising (note: he did get a set over Fed in 2011). BUT… Fed struggled to beat him in Canada this year so Cilic showed signs of getting closer there or may’ve learned from that encounter. Also, Fed hadn’t played a full day match at the USO and had had a long gruelling 5-setter versus Monfils in the quarters, so it’s possible he felt some of the effects of both the humid/hot conditions and the previous match. Meanwhile, Cilic had played in the hotter conditions already and he’d had a straightforward win over Berdych.

Finally, his win over Kei was again surprising, but Marin had played a good match with him at Brisbane earlier in the year, and it’s possible that Kei too was a bit out of gas by the final – he’d had extra long matches versus Raonic and Stan, and then a battle in tough conditions versus Nole. The only tough match Cilic had, really, was versus Simon.

None of this discounts the improvements evident in his matches with Nole.

A number of Marin’s losses this year are what one could call “good losses”. At the following events he lost to the eventual champion: Rotterdam, Barcelona, Indian Wells, Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Wimbledon; and at these events he lost to one of the finalists: Roland Garros, Canada, & Umag.

As I said, you could look at those wins “coming out of nowhere” as both true and not true. It was surprising that he won them in the manner he did – as many have noted; he was “in the zone.” But match up issues, opponent conditions, and improvements could all have been factors that pointed toward a possible breakthrough.

As for the drugs issue, I am not touching that because I don’t know much other than that he’s been banned and has returned. I’d think that’d mean he’d be smarter now. Who knows?

September 16th, 2014 at 2:21 am

It was a relativly poor year for Serena compared to her usual standards,losing to players in very early rounds of all the GS bar the USO,Ivanovic at the AO,Murguruza at the FO,Cornet at Wimbledon very unusual,IMO she probably will surpass Stefi within the next couple of years,as there doesnt seem to be a female player on the horizon consistent enough to back up one good tourney or GS win with another,not her fault but theres not the depth of competition on the WTA that there was when Stefi,Monica,Martina,Chrissy were playing,shame Venus is a shadow of her former self,and Henin and Clijsters have retired?

September 16th, 2014 at 6:45 am

Have to say after watching the USO highlights,i was rather dissapointed that Cilic and the commontators didnt also acknowledge Nishikori and what a fabulous fortnight that he also had,not one mention from Wilander on Mats point,or Rusedski etc,maybe this was just in the highlights as i didnt see the proper match?but bearing in mind this was also Keis first final i just thought this seemed rather unfair,still JMO….

September 16th, 2014 at 8:34 am

Interesting thing about Cilic is that I think his serve can still get quite a bit bigger and more effective. He’s 6′-6″ tall and he serves in the high 120’s and low 130’s. Sampras was easily hitting these numbers 15 years ago with his PS 6.0 85. I think that if Goran can help him get that serve into the high 130’s, he’ll be a force to reckon with in each and every tournament he plays. The rest of his game looks damned solid.

September 16th, 2014 at 12:46 pm

As for Nishikori, I think he has to serve better to be effective for the long haul.

Federer had a remrkable opportunity before him to get that elusive 18th slam title but he just couldn’t pull it off. It’s hard for me to completely write him off as a slam winner quite yet just because his 2014 was so much better than his 2013.

If Fed can lead his team to a win in Davis Cup, this could be the impetus he needs to have another solid season in 2015. It’s quite often happened that Davis Cup inspires players to play great the following year. Just saying…it seems plausible even if it’s not necessarily likely.

September 16th, 2014 at 12:52 pm

As for Serena, she did have an off year but winning her country’s slam had to be a huge confidence boost going into next year.

As Hippy Chic said, I’m not quite sure where she stands on the totem pole of all time greatness right now. I think I’d put her above Chrissy and below Martina for the moment. I’d put Graf at No.1 all time.

Serena’s competition has generally been less than stellar. This said, I think that if she gets to 20 slams, she’d have to be considered the best ever. Graf’s 22 slams likely would have been lower if not for the Seles stabbing. I’ve always been a huge Graf fan but I don’t think there’s any doubt that Monica had the game to unsettle Graf and pretty much everyone else (except on grass).

September 16th, 2014 at 12:59 pm

I think nole will finish number one. The rumored baby boy is due Nov 1 AFAIK.

September 16th, 2014 at 2:16 pm

great read! quality piece about the current state of affairs of professional tennis

September 16th, 2014 at 2:32 pm

SG1, if Cilic follows your advice, he’ll end up with a wrecked serving arm!

Speed,isn’t everything. Federer at his peak was never the world’s fastest server.

September 16th, 2014 at 2:50 pm

Fantastic article Sean!

You guys, Fed is No. 2 in the Race and was a mere eight points from winning Wimbledon!!!!

It is tunnel vision thinking to say he’s done winning slams with those numbers (as long as he doesn’t have to face Nadal, that is). :)

Agreed with SG1 on Serena. However if Serena gets within 3-4 slams of Graf? Against today’s competition? I’d have to give the nod to Serena as the greatest. She’s a machine when she’s on her game. No one can touch her.

September 16th, 2014 at 3:51 pm

Dayform Still decides Most of the time matches. Fed lost . And other day he may wins . He is in great form and wins a lot of matches. Shanghai wide open as usual nowadays . Don’t expect fed nole and others to lose early . But one of them all has to lose eventually

September 16th, 2014 at 4:11 pm

JMO If Fed is to win another GS,his best chance would be against Novak in a final,as everyone says he came pretty close against Novak at Wimbledon,and i belive his best chance of another would be at Wimbledon now against anyone other than Nadal,although the chances of Nadal making another final at Wimbledon now are slim at best,unless the unlikely happens and he somehow catches fire there(stranger things have happened,and Rafas Rafa,so i certainly wouldnt put it past him),USO was a golden oppotunity that one would have to say past Fed by with Novak losing to Kei,and Rafa missing as more often than not he would probably have to face either Novak/Rafa or possibly both to win another GS….

September 16th, 2014 at 4:24 pm

Jerzy Janowicz needs to change his serve just like Cilic. The ball toss is way too high.

September 16th, 2014 at 4:27 pm

@Colin……I also had the same thought about the Cilic serve……if it got much more powerful, I too think he would have a “rag” arm…..I remember whe Rafa changers his serve for the first USO he won, it caused another problem somewhere else. I don’t think a high powered serve will make a slamwinnerevery time. When and if Cilic starts going deep in tourneys he will start having some body issues. He is no spring chicken in terms of tennis either…..I’ve always heard the bigger they are the harder they fall. I am anxious to see what the big guy can do……along with Kyrgios. I’m looking forward to some new stuff!

September 16th, 2014 at 4:31 pm

“his best chance would be against Novak in a final,”

their matches are usually close. however, in slams, nole and fed are even at 6-6. if you’re looking at just the big 4 (which i assume, since he could clearly beat other players more readily in a slam final), obviously rafa would be the most difficult for fed to beat, whereas, going by history, murray could be the easiest for fed, not nole, and depending on form of course. andy is 1-4 versus fed at slams (though he does have one other win in best of 5 at the olympics). so it’s tough to say…based on history/h2h. honestly, i think all of the other “big 4” could be really tough over best of 5.

agree with you about wimbledon; i think it’s fed’s best shot for an #18 too. but stars can align anywhere, and fed’s won on all surfaces, so it could happen at the other slams too.

i wouldn’t rule him out, like sg-1 notes, but i think sean’s right that it’s only getting more difficult and younger players begin to make a real push.

September 16th, 2014 at 5:55 pm

Finally one from Sean with neutral reviews.

September 16th, 2014 at 6:29 pm

Colin Says:
SG1, if Cilic follows your advice, he’ll end up with a wrecked serving arm!

Speed,isn’t everything. Federer at his peak was never the world’s fastest server.

—————————-

Fed didn’t have to serve as big. His forehand and movement in combination with his serve made him near unbeatable.

Why do you think Cilic would wreck his arm serving faster? He clearly has the leverage. Raonic serves much bigger and his actually shorter (even if only by an inch).

September 16th, 2014 at 6:55 pm

The American’s definitely do hype better than anyone else (in Sean’s No.8 comment). This being said, I find the USO far away the most compelling and entertaining of all the majors. The AO could probably make a run of it if it weren’t for the awful time delay but that’s just the way things are (if you live in North America anyway). One of the things I love most about the USO is that the tennis is almost 24/7. You can get home from work, grab a bite and catch great tennis until midnight. And that night environment can be quite electric. No major does it quite like the USO does.

September 16th, 2014 at 7:59 pm

Jane sorry yeah i forgot about Murray,that said he also beat Fed at the AO a couple of years ago,agree that Fed can win any of the four GS having done it before and depending on the draws opening up etc,the AO Noles record there over the last few years has been excellent,Rafa likewise at the FO,the USO would be the most open GS,Wimbledon would be his best bet,regardless of Novak and Rafa having won the title twice each,i still think Roger and Andy both having games better suited to grass….

September 17th, 2014 at 1:58 am

French open is most closed grand slam only two winners in a decade that too 9: 1.

September 17th, 2014 at 9:03 am

I would think by the law of averages we will see a new champion at RG next year,surely Rafa cant win it again can he?Jamies physcic friend says Novak will win the FO next year,and Nadal will win the AO,and Wimbledon for Murray,2009 was the only year Rafa didnt win the FO,and also the only year he won the AO instaed,if one believes in that stuff Rafa and Nole fans should be happy with that scenario?

September 17th, 2014 at 12:29 pm

Given Novak’s recent “struggles”, I don’t think he’s even a shoe-in for the FO final. In the past year or so, it seems like Novak has lost some of his patience. He seems to get the short end of the stick in the longer rallies these days. Particularly when he plays the better guys. Can’t pick him to win an FO when he’s in this mindset. While I agree that the law of averages will eventually catch up to Rafa, I have to pick Rafa to defend again at RG. He’ll be fresh and fired up. A lot of things to accomplish. Win the same major ten times. Get closer to Roger’s 17 slam total. Maybe get multiple majors. I’m thinking that Rafa wants another Wimbledon title for his trophy case.

September 17th, 2014 at 12:43 pm

SG1 i like your theory about another Wimbledon,but i dont know how realistic it is after the last three years?hes actually a better HC player now,i would love to see him win another AO at some point and that or USO would be his best chances away from RG,as for Novak winning the FO i would realistically give him a couple more years,as i think it will only get more difficult the more the years go by….

September 17th, 2014 at 12:59 pm

You guys, Djokovic is not a shoe in for anything having won single slams in each of the last three years.

He’s only won more than one slam once in 2011 which, in hindsight, now seems more like an anomaly.

And this is before his new priorities.

The fall season, his favourite time of year, should give us a better indication with year end No. 1 on the line.

September 17th, 2014 at 1:29 pm

Elina true but he has been the most consistent player since 2011….

September 17th, 2014 at 1:46 pm

Hippy true but not since 2013, or 2012 or 2010. or 2009 or 2008, or 2007, or 2006 or 2005.

Nadal has been most consistent since any of those years (i.e., winning slams).

And Federer before that.

Just saying?

September 17th, 2014 at 2:53 pm

Elina yeah,Nadals won the most GS this particular decade with 8,Novaks second with 6,Nadals won multiple GS 3 times,Novak once,Federer numerous times,and Rafas won GS consistently for 10 years….

September 17th, 2014 at 3:12 pm

I am thinking another post is on the way to get more hits…

September 17th, 2014 at 4:10 pm

http://www.tennischannel.com/news/NewsDetails.aspx?newsid=14495

September 17th, 2014 at 4:43 pm

Winning a major 10 years in a row and counting is one of the most remarkable archievments in the Open Era.
Vamos!

September 17th, 2014 at 4:47 pm

^yes, it is remarkable….but:

As an example, Borg. who dominated on Clay also;
“won five consecutive Wimbledon singles titles and six French Open singles titles”…..this is more impressive imo.
Winning on one surface convincingly shows what? You’re awesome on one surface? So thankful the game is played with variety requirements!

September 17th, 2014 at 5:35 pm

skeevy, se il vostro amato svizzero non poteva, mostra quanto grande sarà questo record per le generazioni future, paragonabile solo al Grand Slam di Laver.

September 17th, 2014 at 6:29 pm

It is remarkable!! Rafa is the “SOC”……!!!

9 vamoses and a big hail Mary!!

September 17th, 2014 at 6:35 pm

HC,

I agree that Rafa seems to be a better hard courter than grass player these days. I’m just thinking that this long rest may be what the doctor ordered for him. Pardon the pun but he’s usually like a bull in a China shop after a long lay off. I think that hard court tennis, and specifically the surface at the AO has some negative effects on his body. I don’t think he’ll give up on the AO by any means but tangling with Novak or Murray or even Federer for extended periods on that surface seems to cause injury for him. I’m just wondering if he is setting some goals at this point and trying to peak for the events that give him the best chance for a more sustainable career. Just a thought.

September 17th, 2014 at 8:42 pm

Skeezer but he has multiple GS on all surfaces where Borg hasnt,and 14 GS to Borgs 11,i know you wont see it that way,but IMO its the reason his 14 is also better than Petes,simply because Pete never completed the career GS….

September 18th, 2014 at 3:20 am

steve27, interesting article on race to year-end number 1. thanks for posting it.

not sure i agree with this, though, re nadal:

“but there can be no doubt that it will take him time to sharpen his skills, build up his psyche and get reacquainted with match play.”

after all when he came back in 2013, he reached finals of his first tournament back and then won the next 3 in a row i think? why would he need to “get reacquainted with match play”? it seems like a stretch.

September 18th, 2014 at 4:01 am

Jane but then again hes a year older now,and things get harder every year not easier,and he even struggled against Simon,Youzhney,Nishikori whom he shouldve in all honestly lost to this year,hes becoming less dominant now which is inevitable,however as the man always says we will see no?

September 18th, 2014 at 7:21 am

hmmm… yes, we’ll see.

so how do you feel about scotland hippy? don’t bother answering if you’d care to keep it private.

September 18th, 2014 at 10:24 am

TBH Jane i couldnt care less one way or the other,how about you as if i remember rightly you once said you too have Scotish roots?

September 18th, 2014 at 11:28 am

^ husband does. i feel neutral about it too. but if the majority of the scottish really want independence, then they should be able to have it.

September 18th, 2014 at 1:14 pm

Yeah true enough Jane….

September 18th, 2014 at 1:39 pm

Agree that Nadal won’tbe in killer mode his first two tourneys and Asia, if he returns. It will be almost 3 months with no match play and he may feel cautious towards his erist and hitting cleanly. Will see, but I don’t expect him to win neither if the titles this year: Beijing, Shangai, Paris and WTF.

September 18th, 2014 at 8:42 pm