Nadal v Djokovic, Tsitsipas v Zverev In French Open SFs; Who’s The Pick?
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We are down to just four players in the men’s draw at the French Open. And surprise(!!!), I got all four right!
Let’s be honest, most people had these four, it wasn’t hard to pick. Unlike the women’s draw which blew up early on, the men’s draw was chalk. I’ll bet more people picked at least one of the women’s semifinals than none of the men’s semifinals. You could make a case for Barbora Krejcikova, maybe Maria Sakkari. But in the men’s draw, you had to at least had one of the last four.
Rafael Nadal rolled. Novak Djokovic got through the Italians. Stefanos Tsitsipas looked good and Alexander Zverev recovered nicely from that first round scare and took full advantage of a nice draw.
All four men are playing well, are healthy and should be fit and ready for action. The weather also looks great for the weekend, so that shouldn’t be an issue (or will it?). Now to my picks.
STEFANOS TSITSIPAS v ALEXANDER ZVEREV
At the start of the tournament I went with Zverev mostly on a whim. Tsitsipas seems to be right there at the end of events, he just gets himself into trouble. Maybe overthinks it, overanalyzes.
Zverev isn’t much better. But I feel like he’s more battle-tested. He’s a couple years older with more experience. He’s got the bigger frame, more upside, maybe more desire and he’s slowly turning it a villain-like figure which is something he can draw off of.
Unlike the Russians Daniil Medvedev or Andrey Rublev, or even the Canadians and Casper Ruud, both these guys are a little weird. At least to me. Just in the way they talk, their actions, intents and off court issues.
So in that regard it’s an even more interesting matchup.
Tsitsipas leads 5-2 with Zverev winning their first clash and the last which was in the Acapulco final earlier this year.
It’s hard to make much of their past meetings since this will be there first best-of-5 showdown. I feel like everything will depend on Zverev’s serve. If he wins over 40% of his second, 75% of his first and keeps in a good ace/fault ratio, he’ll win. If he doesn’t he’ll lose.
In his young career, Tsitsipas doesn’t deviate from the norm much. He’s going to be rock solid off the ground and off the serve. He finds trouble when he gets too offensive. So if Zverev serves big, then a big forehand, he can get Tsitsipas off-kilter because the Greek tends to still overhit when playing defense.
But if Tsitsipas is the one dictating especially in return games, then he’s going to win.
I picked Zverev in five sets and since he’s been so good in five of late and Tsitsipas seems to always have at least one five setter during a Slam, I’ll stick with it. It seems to makes sense….for now.
The Pick: Zverev in 5
RAFAEL NADAL v NOVAK DJOKOVIC
On to the big show! Of all the hefty numbers between these two when they meet, the three that mean the most to me for Friday are: Nadal is 7-1 against Djokovic at the French, Nadal is 26-0 when he makes the French semifinals, and Djokovic hasn’t beaten Nadal on clay since Rome in 2016.
So yes, Rafa should win this.
I mentioned the weather earlier, and with it forecasted to be warm and dry, that’s bad news for Novak who I think would prefer it cool and wet like it was in October — and look how that turned out.
This time, I don’t expect Djokovic to waste a set trying dropshots. I liked, no, loved the energy he showed after his win over Matteo Berrettini last night. He’ll need that to have any chance tomorrow.
As usual with these two, it’s so close off the ground that it comes down to the player who serves the best and converts break points.
For this match, I think Nadal seems to be in a better groove. He just got some good rhythm last night blanking Schwartzman in that final set. And remember last October he beat Diego then crushed Novak in the final.
Meanwhile, Djokovic was dealing with the raw power of Berrettini who doesn’t play anything like Rafa. It’s not a big deal I don’t think for Novak (it doesn’t help), but for Rafa I think how he finished off Schwartzman will have him feeling better about his game.
So again, it’s Rafa’s house and until someone can beat him at this stage in Paris, you just have to take him.
The Pick: Nadal in 4
In the first match, I wouldn’t be shocked by any outcome: Tsitsipas winning easily, Zverev cruising, an epic choke at the end. Just about anything. With Tsitsipas and Zverev anything is possible. Zverev seems to have suffered more, so perhaps he’s more deserving. Lol.
In the second, I don’t see Novak rolling Rafa and I don’t see another easy win for the King of Clay like in October. I think in October, Djokovic was still a bit off from that US Open default and maybe wasn’t in the right frame of mind.
Here, I think he’s OK, just the time, place, conditions, fans and opponent are all working against him. But then again, if he can harness that and use it as fuel, he absolutely is capable of beating Rafa again in Paris.
We should have answer in less than 24 hours (I hope… but their matches do run long!).
FRIDAY FRENCH OPEN SCHEDULE
** Court Philippe CHATRIER ** Début à 14h50
1 SM D Alexander ZVEREV (GER) [6] contre Stefanos TSITSIPAS (GRE) [5]
Pas avant 17h30
2 SM D Novak DJOKOVIC (SRB) [1] contre Rafael NADAL (ESP) [3]
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