Federer v Wawrinka In The Australian Open SFs, Who’s The Pick?
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The men’s semifinals are set at the Australian Open, and who would have believed about two weeks when the draw was made that a Roger Federer-Rafael Nadal final would be in play. Well, not only is it in play, it’s a serious possibility.
Tonight, Federer faces his good buddy Stan Wawrinka. Tomorrow, it’s Rafa taking on Grigor Dimitrov. So Roger-Rafa? Why not!
First to yesterday. Nadal saved six pivotal set points in the second set to deny Milos Raonic a return trip to the semifinal.Instead, it was Nadal was cracking that forehand, had better court positioning and kept the “ailing” Canadian off balance. Nadal played better than from what I saw against Sascha Zverev.
“Winning against difficult players: Monfils quarterfinals, Zverev round of 16, and now Raonic,” Nadal said. “I think all of them are top players. So that’s very important for me because that mean that I am competitive and playing well.
“So just excited about be back in final rounds of the most important events. You know, I am here to try to make this, no? Is always difficult, but I fighted and I worked hard to try to make that happen.”
Credit to Rafa but I also felt that Milos effectively laid an egg.
After all the coaches, the words and the weapons he has, what does Milos have to show for it? Not much. And then you have his injuries which are now coming with more frequency and coming during crucial matches. He really needs to win these kinds matches to prove he belongs. With his game on a fast court against an older Nadal? That should be a win, yet he couldn’t even muster a set.
“I thought he did some things well,” Raonic said. “I thought, you know, he took the match to me. He did something a little bit different than he normally does. He played better than I did.”
A kid who has the fire and one who I think will get at least set against Rafa is Grigor Dimitrov. To no one’s surprise, Dimitrov rolled through David Goffin in straight sets earlier in the day to reach his second Grand Slam semifinal. Dimitrov has started out hot this season winning all 10 matches, and much of his turnaround can be credited to maturity and new coach Dani Valverdu who has simplified his game since joining the Bulgarian last summer.
So tomorrow it’s Nadal against Dimitrov. But in a few hours it’s Roger and Stan.
Roger Federer v Stan Warwinka
In a bubble, this is a match Federer should win. He’s playing better posting convincing wins this week over Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori and even an overmatched Mischa Zverev. Meanwhile, Stan really struggled just to get out of the first round, though has improved his play in victories over Andreas Seppi and then the other day over former finalist JW Tsonga.
And then there’s the head-to-head. Federer has dominated winning 18 of 21 including all 13 on hard courts. That’s right all 13, and the last two hard court meetings he won 64 63 61 75 63 in 2015.
So looking just at those numbers, this would figure to be a Federer landslide. But, when take a step back and you look at the big picture and you see Federer has lost his last five semifinals in Australia, hasn’t won a Slam since Wimbledon 2012 and in Australia since 2010. Meanwhile, Stan has won three Slams and did so by beating the best including then No. 1 Novak Djokovic at the US Open last September.
And you also realize Federer is playing his first tournament in six months. He can’t be “back” to full strength, right?
But this is Federer. The man who is fighting and, one could make the case, beating Father Time right now. And if he continues to serve well, fire that forehand and take advantage of what has been a quick court, more suited to Fed’s game than Stan’s, he has a great chance not just to win but the walk away with the title.
Two weeks ago I didn’t think it was possible. My mind changed after Andy Murray and Djokovic lost, and watching how fluid Roger looked against Berdych and Nishikori.
So for now, I feel like this wave, this momentum behind Roger is too great to overlook, and maybe too great for Stan to overcome.
The Pick: Federer in 4
ESPN has live coverage from 3:30am ET for you early birds.
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