Federer, Serena: Pre-Draw US Open Favorites?
by Sean Randall | August 21st, 2012, 3:55 pm
  • 160 Comments

We are a little less than 48 hours until the unveiling of the 2012 US Open draws, the final Grand Slam of the tennis season. Even before the draws are made and we know the match-ups and potential later-round pairings, here’s my early rundown of the tournament favorites.

For the men potential winners I go three deep with Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray.

MEN
1. Roger Federer
Based on Sunday I moved Roger ahead of Novak. If they meet again that Cincinnati win and bagel Novak ate might be the difference. Even though it was his first hardcourt tournament in four months, Federer looked absolutely sublime all week, and he never dropped serve. He’ll drop a few in New York where the courts are said to be slower, but as of now provided he lands Ferrer in his section (anyone betting he won’t?) he’s my early favorite. Roger, however, hasn’t won the US Open since back in 2008 and if somehow Murray finds his way on the top half then that changes things.

2. Novak Djokovic
Maybe the Serb took a step back on Sunday, maybe he didn’t. I still feel that for a guy with that much game and on such a run – he just won Toronto, hadn’t lost serve all week – he can’t let a rival like Federer bagel him in a final on hardcourts. To me, that signals something just isn’t right somewhere. (Where’s the girlfriend been?) That said, Djokovic is the defending US Open champion and he’s extremely comfortable on the New York courts. Aside from the Federer match he’s been on-song during this shortened summer hardcourt season so I expect him to continue to play well and reach that final weekend.

3. Andy Murray
Murray finally got that big win on a big stage at the Olympics. Finally!! Now back to Grand Slams. With that win over Federer in his cap I think it should help him. Then again maybe it raises those expectations. Who knows. Assuming the knee is okay, Murray’s biggest problem in New York is his seed, because at No. 3 and not No. 2 he’ll likely have to beat both Federer and Djokovic on a hardcourt in best-of-5 on consecutive days (weather permitting) to win his first Slam. Wow. I think he can beat one, but not both. And unfortunately without seeing the draw it’s hard to bet against Federer or Djokovic dropping out before the semifinals.

Next: Del Potro, Tsonga, Isner

As for the women, Serena’s the heavy favorite but I think the list of title contenders goes seven down.

WOMEN
1. Serena Williams
You can write off Serena’s Cincinnati loss to Angelique Kerber. She’s never won that event. She doesn’t seem concerned. Nor should we. It might help the German when they play again down the road but Serena should be fine for the US Open. The only thing that gives me pause is she’s played a lot of tennis and she is injury prone, so might something come up? If she’s stays healthy and motivated she’ll win her second straight Major. Although many of us said that last year and look what happened!

2. Victoria Azarenka
Vika won her first Slam in Australia on her favorite hardcourts where she’s back again. If her knee injury is healed I’m putting her at No. 2. I know she hasn’t played that much but often in Slams because of the schedule you can play your way into form, and here I think the BelaRussian will do just that.

3. Petra Kvitova
The Czech finally got her first title of the year a few weeks ago in Toronto beating Li Na, so I’ll take Petra over the Chinese for the third spot.

4. Li Na
Li Na just collected one of her biggest career titles Sunday in Cincinnati where she enlisted the help of Henin’s former coach Carlos Rodriguez. She’s a solid player, excellent backhand, good power and will be tough to beat. But she also plays a lot of long, rollercoaster matches and often that catches up to you in Majors.

5. Maria Sharapova
We haven’t heard much from Maria since her French Open title unless of course you count that Olympic final shellacking. Maria has won in New York before and if the draw opens up (Serena loses) maybe she can make another run. Just make sure to beat her in straights! You don’t want to play three against the Russian.

6. Angelique Kerber
Kerber been’s a steady surprise on the WTA circuit the last 12 months. After he semifinal in New York a year, she just reached the Wimbledon semifinals and the finals last weekend in Cincinnati where she snapped Serena’s 19-match win streak. With her lack of power and shaky serve she’ll need a lot of help to lift her first Slam title, but stranger things have in women’s tennis.

7. Sam Stosur
I can’t leave out the US Open defending champion, can I? I’ll give Stosur a chance only for that reason. Otherwise she’s been off the radar for much of 2012 perhaps still celebrating from her improbable win over Serena last year.

Next: Radwanska, Venus


Also Check Out:
2012 Davis Cup Draw: US Travels to Switzerland, Spain the Favorites Again?
Poll: Better Chance Of Winning The French Open: Rafael Nadal Or Serena Williams?
2011 US Open Tennis Odds: Djokovic, Serena the Betting Favorites
Serena Williams And Maria Sharapova Dazzle On The Red Carpet [Video]
Olympic Tennis Women’s Draw Preview: Serena Tough Start

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160 Comments for Federer, Serena: Pre-Draw US Open Favorites?

Brando Says:

IMHO, fed and novak are co- favourites.


Angel Says:

For me the winner has to be between Roger and Novak (I would bet my house on that), and the upperhand should be for the one who doesn’t get Murray in the semifinal (assuming he gets there). Otherwise it’s a pretty even call. Let the best man win.

Bring it on.


RZ Says:

No Clijsters?


trufan Says:

The draw is CRITICAl at the USO. Given the stupidity of best of 5 semi and final on consecutive days, every time the player who has a tougher semi loses in the final. Whoever faces Murray in the semi (assuming he gets there) is toast even if he wins the semi. And that’s why Murray probably can’t win, unless Fed or Djokovic lose before the semi.

This super saturday thing is just crap. I couldn’t care less about women’s tennis, its so boring. Its like forcing Olympics coverage.

This is especially important for Fed. Given that he is 31 years old, he needs an easy semi opponent to have a chance in the final. Like Sampras in 2002, when he got Scheng Schalken in the semi, while Agassi was toiling away with Hewitt – Agassi was wiped out in the final, which Sampras won, though he didn’t deserve to (he hadn’t won ANY title in two years, and had dropped to 14 or something in ranking by then – a REALLY soft draw with LOTS of luck got him his 14th).


Sienna Says:

Trufan
no worries Fed is one of the fittest guys on tour. Ifmurray is his semi then that match will be oke and final against Djok would be always ok. he is atm not so fysically as last year .

Obv murray djok semi would be great.

Hope he reaches super saturday.


Tennis Vagabond Says:

I just hope the best man and woman win, fair play is enjoyed by all, and everyone gets home safe.

Thank you.

However, I mainly agree with Sean here: Even at Wimbledon and Olympics I felt the game had opened up a tad, but just as quickly, the Elite shut the door. There are really three men in play here. I agree the semi draw is critical, but not because of fitness. These guys are fit enough. But these matches are SO uncertain, that having to endure one instead of two is a huge advantage just based on probabilities.

So, Fed, Nole, Murray. Agree with that order. But Isner? Doesn’t belong anywhere near here. That’s crack talk. Del Potro and Tsonga are the only ones with a real shot at knocking off the big three. Ferrer may make a semi, but he can’t crack his betters. Berdych is a good long shot for an upset, as is Raonic. Nobody else.

Best of luck everyone!


trufan Says:

Sienna,
however fit Fed may be, he is 31. The body just can’t recover from a 4 hour match that easily at that age. Look at what happened at Wimbledon – even though it was grass and he had a day off – the 4.5 hour match with DelPo just sapped him, and he couldn’t play well in the final.

I still think he would have won the final had he been fresh.

And yes, Isner is crack talk, doesn’t belong here. Nor does Berdych. I think Tsonga (if he is fit) and Delpo, along with Raonic – all capable of upsets. But given their current form, I don’t think they can get past both Fed and Djokovic.


Sienna Says:

agreed but Andy wont be the problem.

Either he’ll meet andy in semi or in final.

In semi no proble he’d have a day rest. In final no problem he’d probably dealt with another geezer who is not top 3.

So provided He;d reach of course super saturday … We are in for a bang from TMF.


eric Says:

for me it depends on whos side murray is on. i cant really comment until i see that.


trufan Says:

Following from some of the recent threads on this Nadal debate – somehow, people often forget to consider No. 1 ranking and YEC titles in recognizing a player’s stature. Both are quite important.

All 5+ slam winners in the open era except Wilander have won the YEC at least once, some multiple times. Heck, even Davydenko won, so did Guga, Corretja, Nalbandian and Stich. Nadal’s game must be really deficient to have made just one final and no wins.

Nadal can pound the clay year after year after year – but it doesn’t buy all round greatness.


Sienna Says:

Players recognize yec as a major trophee rated just below slam.
How else do you think so many greats wanting to win it and ofcourse winning it.

Nadal not winning is further proof of him not yet elevated among true greats of tennis.


Tennis Vagabond Says:

Trufan, what are you talking about? You and the Sharks and Jets already destroyed a previous thread with this asinine food fight. Go back there, stay away from a clean tennis thread. I am calling you out here as a thread destroyer.
Behave now. The subject is US OPEN FAVOURITES. Is Rafa one? No. So leave him out and move on.

Thank you.


Reyals Says:

The draw will be crucial.


laslo Says:

every time the player who has a tougher semi loses in the final

Trufan, didn’t Novak play Fed and Nadal back to back at USO?


Ben Pronin Says:

Federer has shown, over the past few years, that he does have trouble recovering from physical matches. Not because he is unfit, but because at his age he needs a little more time. As evidenced these past few months, that is the only way his age affects him, apparently.

I think it is a bigger deal for Federer that he not land Murray than Djokovic, in this case. We saw just how much physicality Djokovic can endure at the Australian Open this year.


Rocky Says:

Federer still has two things missing in his career….

1) Singles Olympic Gold

2) Davis Cup Victory

….But Nadal already has everything….


van orten Says:

fed won cincy in 2005,07,09,10,12. cincy is one of the most difficult to win and unpredictable masters around ( court speed, heat , wind) only number 1 players have held the trophy in the last 10 years or so except for murray.
roger winning it for the first time in 2005 in one of his absolute prime years shows how difficult it was for him to start having some success there.
it is def. one of the best masters to watch and one very hard to win. so incredible achievment by roger.
it is great having him back as the favourite in ny without underestimating the co-favourite and defending champion djoker. and with rafa not there murray and all the other players have to be considered the rest of the pack!!!

we are going to see great tennis the next weeks!!!


skeezer Says:

@Rocky

Uh?

———

Won’t complain if Fed gets whatever draw he gets. It would be nice IF he gets to the semis he gets through fairly easily. But, Fed should handle the long matches, no excuses. Its part of the game. If he doesn’t, he loses. So what? He is playing for bonus points now, his legacy is secure.


Fot Says:

You said “Roger, however, hasn’t won the U.S Open since 2008 and if somehow Murray finds his way on the top half then that changes things”…. And you are saying this based on Murray who has won the US Open in way year?


Fot Says:

That should be in “what year.”


Ben Pronin Says:

Found this on a random forum. Players winning a tournament without dropping serve.

Pete Sampras – Lyon 1,991 (Indoor/Carpet) 15 Break Points faced in all the tournament (2nd Highest)

Michael Stich – Rosmalen 1,992 (Outdoor/Grass) 7 Break Points faced

Richard Krajicek – Rosmalen 1,994 (Outdoor/Grass) 11 Break Points Faced

Roger Federer – Doha 2005 (Outdoor/Hard) 7 Break Points Faced
- Halle 2008 (Outdoor/Grass) 11 Break Points Faced
- Cincinatti 2012 (Masters 1000 Outdoor/Hard) 3 Break Point Faced

Ivan Ljubicic – Vienna 2005 (ATP 500 Indoor/Hard) 5 Break Points Faced
- Vienna 2006 (ATP 500 Indoor/Hard) 17 Break Points Faced (Highest)

Tommy Haas – Memphis 2007 (ATP 500 Indoor/Hard) 0 Break Points Faced

Andy Roddick – Lyon 2005 (Indoor Carpet) 3 Break Points Faced


ertorque Says:

An interesting fact about Federer is that not only is he is only Top 10 player with a single backhand, he is also the player on tour with the smallest racquet headsize (90 sqin).
A unique situation for a unique player!


Angel Says:

Rocky
Nadal doesn’t have the ATP World Tour Finals (The Masters) and that counts 1500 ATP points and the Singles Gold Medal counts only 750 ATP points. So I guess ATP considers more important the title Nadal hasn’t won and probably never will. And the Davis Cup is a team competition and doesn’t count as an individual achievement so what does this tell us that Spain has a better team than Switzerland, big deal. One more thing Rocky 17 Grand Slams(and probably some more will come)do you think your crippled bull is going to get that? Good luck with those knees. HAHAHAHA


Michael Says:

Ofcourse Roger would like a Murray-less draw. But even if Murray lands in his section, what is the guarantee that Murray will make the Semis. As regards Roger, we know he is pretty consistent seeing his record over the years, but even his qualification is not automatic and he has to endure to be there. However, his record so far at the US Open has been phenomenal and breathtaking to say in simple terms.


Nirmal Kumar Says:

Not sure if people have read this nice piece from Steve about Roger.

http://www.tennis.com/news/2012/08/fedipal-complex/38955/#.UDRiKXiZdIJ


Nirmal Kumar Says:

It’s tough to say who is the favorite between Novak and Roger. Roger won cincy but Novak won Toronto and won more matches on HC post Wimby.

I’m not sure if anyone other than Roger and Rafa have beaten Novak at USO starting 2008. It’s been his second best slam after AO. I would call him favorite along with Roger. I find it difficult to put him behind Roger.


jane Says:

“I’m not sure if anyone other than Roger and Rafa have beaten Novak at USO starting 2008. ”

Nope, and starting in 2007.

Fed stopped Nole in 2007 (in the finals) and in 2008 & 2009 (semis). Rafa stopped Nole in 2010 (Nole reached the finals after beating Fed in a marathon on his 4th try). Last year, third time (in the finals) was a charm, and Nole won the title. USO is definitely his best slam other than AO, you’re correct.

Noted on the other thread: Nole and Fed have met more than any other players at the slams, 11 times now, split 6-5 for Fed. Roger won the first two, AO 2007 when Nole was 19 and USO same year in Nole’s first slam final (that was Nole’s “break through” year). The fact that they’ve met on hard courts the most is not surprising – the slam the’ve met at the most is the USO.

The full list:
2007 AO R16 – Fed*
2007 USO Final – Fed*
2008 AO semi – Nole*
2008 USO semi – Fed
2009 USO semi – Fed*
2010 USO semi – Nole
2011 AO semi –Nole*
2011 FO semi – Fed
2011 USO semi – Nole
2012 FO semi – Nole*
2012 Wimbledon semi – Fed

“*”denotes straight set wins; they’ve each had 3 straight set wins over the other (Nole’s the only guy to beat Fed 3 times in straight sets at the slams).


skeezer Says:

Congrats to BigJohn for getting the #9 seed at USO and Daveeeeed Ferrer #4. They “earned” it.


Nirmal Kumar Says:

yeah jane, i still remember the 2007 finals. it should never have been a 3-setter. Roger played very tentative and Novak had the 1st set in his racquet. I think loss Roger had at Montreal / Toronto against Novak got to him in the finals. Roger played clutch and got through.

Novak’s ascendency I believe started in 2007 US season. So this is the time where he seems to play some of his best tennis.


Wog boy Says:

NK,

I think Novak had something like 5 set points in first and three set points in second set in that match, both, JMC and Courier, on two different chanels, said that Novak lost due to him not beeing expirience enough. JMC went further saying that Novak can become number one in one year after Nole won AO next year. Well he wasn’t quite right, it took him another three and half years:) but he did it and in what style.


Goose Egg Says:

@Ben Pronin…

Very interesting that Federer is the only player to have won a tournament without dropping serve on an outdoor hard court. Everyone else has done so on either grass or indoor courts. That’s pretty impressive.


Sienna Says:

Yep just to see it get taken back by the Maestro.

But the return of Roger to the top ofthe rankings was not like a maestro.
Or maybe it was .

But The year Roger had after Usopen 2011 is a testimoni of the mental ability of Fed.
In that period he showed the whole tennis world what he is made form. Pure heart, gritt and sheer determination.
Impossible is nothing sommercial is based on just that thinking , planning , training and excecuting .

Even if he loses 1th round I will never forget this year he has/had.

73-7 winloss ratio I believe. Ijust love the guy because he wouldnot back down or get down.
to acclompish something like that takes an enormous amount of imagination and utter selfbelief.


Sienna Says:

And by the way. I think Rogers parents esp his dad are great . they have so muchmore class then Djokers parents.
His parents have been keeping him down I feel.
Simpleminded and aggrivating people. They should step back and let theirson educate himself to try and grow status beyond just Serbia.


Nirmal Kumar Says:

WB,

Yeah, I remember he was serving for the 1st set at 40-0 and lost points due to bad play. I think he did not hit another 1st serve in that game.

I think he also beat Roger (final) and Rafa (semi) in montreal at 2007.

During late 2007 and in early 2008, after Rafa was trashed by Tsonga (AO), Novak was supposed to be the next No 1 taking over from Roger. Things changed dramatically from 2008 clay where Rafa just took off.


john Says:

Tennis referee involved in brutal murder case-with Coffe Mug

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/tennis-referee-arrested-la-death-194028778–ten.html


Jeff Says:

Federer is guaranteed to retain the No. 1 ranking after the US Open. It is very likely that he will have about a 2000 point lead over Djokovic, but it could be closer to 3000 (if Federer wins title, and Djokovic loses in semis). That should give Federer extra confidence. He’s my pick.


Skorocel Says:

Again a bit off topic here, but I just don’t get it how can such a veteran website like tennis-x.com write xyz belauding articles about Federer winning Cincy for 5th time, handing Djoker a bagel, etc. etc., AND at the same time can’t write ONE SINGLE ARTICLE about Murray beating Djoker & then beating the sh.t out of the same Federer at the Olympics?!

I’m a Fed fan and I’m more than happy to see him doing so well against one of his biggest rivals like he did vs. Djoker on Sunday, but please, give Murray some credit! He’s worked really hard for that win & had to endure many setbacks en route to this glory. Not to mention that beating Djoker & Fed in the same tournament is ALWAYS worth of mentioning…


xmike Says:

on a less serious note, what would be the most perfect draw a player could have? it could be something like this:

1st round: a terrified 17 year wild card who is an awe at his opponent and needs to change underpants the moment he enters arthur ashe stadium

2st round: the winner between a lucky looser and a wild card who, because of rain and bad scheduling, got to play his first round match only on thursday

3rd round: some claycourter under 5 foot 10 who has to serve underarm because of fatigue provoked by two earlier 5 set marathons

4th round: someone who just until two weeks ago played on the wta tour before having a quick sex change operation

quarter final: someone over 33 years old who is also playing in the doubles and mixed doubles competition and has had to play 11 sets of tennis in the 24 hours before the match

semi final: someone who gets injured 5 minutes into the match, or who already has a cast on one of his legs before the match even starts

final: someone who played the second match on supersaturday agains’t a baseline grinder like ferrer, with all five sets going to tie breakers, which was interrupted by rain three times and who is in his first final of a grand slam

of course, even this could pose some problems, there is always the risk that you could injure yourself when shaking hands at the net or something; the ideal draw would be 7 walkovers or (so that the match counts as a win) 7 early retirements

feel free to add some more suggestions of what kind of draw you would like your favorite player to have these two coming weeks

now i’m going to check the top 100 and try to imagine the worst possible draw, i guess it can’t be much worse than what murray got at wimbledon, but you never know, things can always be worst (post to follow in a few minutes)


xmike Says:

ok then, what would be the worst possible draw a player could have? it might looking something like this (all these matches respect the draw rules and are possible for the top two seeds)

these are the players i really wouldn’t want to have my favourite play:

1st round: ivo karlovic, ernest gulbis or (if he is inspired), lukas rosol

2nd round: the winner between kevin anderson and gilles muller

3rd round: it can be from top 24 to 32 seeds so please np benneteau, lopez or querrey; or maybe someone like nalbandian or davydenko are playing well and reach this stage; they should be avoided too

4ft round: definitivly not john isner or milos raonic; also hopefully tommy haas or mardy fish land somewhere else on the draw

quarter final: anyone but tsonga, del potro or berdych; maybe they will have lost by now or be in some other quarter

semi final: between murray and ferrer, i’ll pick ferrer anytime on hard courts; the problem is, even if ferrer loses, he’ll work you up so much you want be able to recover properly for the final on sunday

final: djokovic/federer, having the other played first on supersaturday and won in three sets while you took 5 sets and two rain breaks to finish your match

besides those, there still other players to that give more trouble than average, like simon, kholschreiber, bagdhatis or bellucci, but it would be hard to find a more difficult path to the title than this;

feel free to add other players that might have been left out


Possum Says:

Good to see you writing in a normal way and none of that jock-speak.


metan Says:

Mark, nice article about Rafa by steve tignor *a little less life and death * @tennis.com.

I don’t know why I can’t put the link here.


El Flaco Says:

Rocky Says:
Federer still has two things missing in his career….

1) Singles Olympic Gold

2) Davis Cup Victory

….But Nadal already has everything….
———————————————–
Never won the World Tour Finals which is one of the most difficult tournaments to win. You can’t work your way into the tournament with a few easy rounds.


john Says:

@EL FLACO

Do yourself a favor and don’t even dignify such stupidity with a response lol.

Firstly you’ll just encourage them, and second you’ll just give yourself a headache. :)


john Says:

God, its been like a holiday without Mark, I sure hope he stays in his cave and never comes out again!


The Crafty Rascal Says:

I want to see some fresh faces make it to the top rounds personally.

Just in time for the US Open, check out my hand made real tennis ball cufflinks
https://www.etsy.com/listing/102828370/tennis-cufflinks-real-upcycled-tennis


Brando Says:

some EXCELLENT articles on tennis.com. pretty good read.

for those interested:

1- this one looks at the ISSUES players have when facing federer- namely rafa, novak, muzza and delpo:

http://www.tennis.com/news/2012/08/fedipal-complex/38955/#.UDTnbcGPWSo

No prizes for guessing who deals with this problem the ‘best’.

2- article on what rafa brings to the game- and the cost of his absence from USO:

http://www.tennis.com/news/2012/08/a-little-less-life-and-death/38868/#.UDTn5MGPWSo

TIGNOR IS AN EXCELLENT WRITER, IMHO. VERY GOOD TO READ!

P.S:

the other day folks where discussing whether the fed v novak contest is better than the fed v rafa contest, well tignor believes its the FED V RAFA that is superior.

And guess what, even FED HIMSELF seems to rate it extemely highly:

As Federer said of his rivalry with Rafa last week, “We’ve had great matches, great fighting spirit, fair play, different type of matchup being a lefty, me being a righty. The way we play is completely different. I think it’s been the sort of set-up that has it all: me with one-handed backhand, him with double, you name it.”

SPOT ON ROGER- FEDAL IS STILL THE BEST CONTEST THIS SPORT CAN OFFER!


jane Says:

Skorocel @ 4:06 am – I am puzzled too about this discrepancy???


the mind reels Says:

@The Crafty Rascal: those are pretty rad. I don’t wear a lot of cufflinks (read: none), but if I did, I’d certainly consider picking up a pair.

@Tennis Vagabond (re: yesterday’s comment): I couldn’t agree more about Isner. So the guy is seeded #9 for the tournament. Outside of Davis Cup, he has two wins over top 10 opponents, only one of which came on a hard court. A guy who is squeaking by Ruben Bemelmans 6-4 in the third in the first round of a 250 tournament on hard court — he’s not someone I’m listing as a contender for the US Open. Too many long matches in the earlier rounds for him to be considered a threat to any of the top guys in the second week, in my humble opinion. He’s been getting a lot of hype, which seems reasonable given his ranking, but until he makes a real splash, I won’t view him as a contender for these kinds of titles.


Nirmal Kumar Says:

Just curious, is there a problem between Novak and his coach. I do not remember seeing him in Cincy. He is mostly around Novak. I’m surprised he was not there.


the mind reels Says:

@Skorocel and @jane: yes — it’s a bit unfortunate.


jane Says:

Nirmal, no problem: he’s been on a break since Wimbledon, back home with his family, but Marian is now with Nole helping him prepare for the USO.


The Great Davy Says:

If I am be playing well, you better believe The Great Davy is making push for his Slam finlandly. I AM THE FAVORITE BECASE EVERY FANS LOVE ME! Right? :)


john Says:

Here

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/

For all Murray Fans…Bbc Tennis=We love Murray!

@Skorcel

Your not the first one to say this but there actually was a write up on Murray’s Olympic Gold.

And the reason it didn’t receive the same amount of attention was also cause Federer was tired.
I don’t care what argument one may use, any Fed fan could see he was fatigued during the final.

So Fed beating Djokovic at 31 on hard-courts plus a bagel is just gonna get more attention(plus not losing serve the entire tournament). Unfortunately that’s just the way it is. And Olympics isn’t that big a deal-to most, it seems like Fed was the one to hype it up with all the talk. I still think Fed at 31 giving Novak a bagel on hard courts is more impressive than a much younger Murray beating a fatigued Federer.

Also the Cincy win brings lots of excitement to the US Open since most use it as a measuring stick to see where players are currently at in relation to the US. So it will get more attention :(.

When all is done and dusted I agree considering all the tough loses Murray has had, he deserved perhaps a bigger commemoration. It was a big Win for him so maybe Instead of looking at it from the stand point I made before one should of just acknowledged the importance of it for Murray.

I personally still don’t think this changes things for the Slams(like Mats Wilanders does) since Olympics was still best of 3 till the final.

Still I believe Murray has an excellent chance at US and hope for his fans that he makes a deep run.


the mind reels Says:

@john: Skorocel’s annoyance (and mine), I believe, stems from the fact that there wasn’t a tennis-x.com write-up about Murray’s win. Of course the British media picked it up.

At least I certainly didn’t (and don’t) see one in the archives:

http://www.tennis-x.com/xblog/page/4

There’s the transcript of his press conference, which came a full two days after the medal match and *after* an August 5th preview of the Rogers Cup titled “Rogers Cup Tennis Preview; Olympic Wrap” and which featured zero content on the Olympics other than the scores of the medal matches.

I’m a Federer fan, and while I too could see that he looked a bit listless during the gold medal match, it doesn’t take away from the fact that Murray beat Federer in a best-of-five match on grass in front of his home crowd. One can’t dismiss this with a simple wave of the hand and say that it doesn’t deserve much attention. Personally, I think it’s much more interesting than Federer dishing out a bagel to Djokovic in the first set of their match last Sunday. Djokovic was arguably fatigued as well during their Sunday final — he played the Olympics, Toronto, and Cincy back-to-back-to-back. So, while I’m not taking anything away from Federer’s win Sunday, I think that just as Federer deserved that win (and the praise and the write-up, etc.) with good play, so too did Murray deserve his win…and the praise and write-up that never followed. That’s all.

There’s certainly selection bias in the articles written on this site — that fact should not be news to anyone — but if there’s any attempt at objectivity, credit where credit is due seems like a fundamental thing to shoot for.


Brando Says:

andy murray getting a write up on tennis-x for winning a title?

NO CHANCE.

We all KNOW by now that muzza has a lifetime membership in the TRUNK as far as tennis-x is concerned!


roy Says:

djokovic played awful in the cincy final first set. errors, double faults.
he’s more up and down than fed/nadal but you can’t expect him to play like that again anytime soon. it was that bad.

a fed win on djoker’s worst surface[grass] and pegging a three set match catching djoker with fatigue doesn’t make federer favourite for the usopen.

5 sets on outdoor hardcourt, djoker is the fav against federer.


john Says:

OK, after a second look I have to admit I was wrong about the write up on Murray. I was under the impression there was an actual story there. Like you said its just the press conference, that is a bit disappointing even for me(not being a fan of Murray).

Mmm, don’t really know what to say except that there should defiantly be stories like this to attract fans of all players to tennis-x.


Skorocel Says:

@the mind reels: Couldn’t agree more with your last post!


tennisnotanolympicsport Says:

Here are the most important titles in tennis:

1. Majors (2000 Points)
Australian Open
French Open
Wimbledon
US Open

2. The Masters (1500 points)
O2 Arena in London, England

3. Masters 1000 (1000 points)
Indian Wells
Miami
Monte Carlo
Madrid
Rome
Toronto, Montreal
Cincinnati
Shanghia
Paris Indoors

4. Olympics (every 4 years, 750 points)

5. Tour 500 events (500 points)

6. Tour 250 events (250 points)


Kimberly Says:

http://www.tourneytopia.com/RacquetBracketUsOpenATP/tennisxrocks/Pre-Register.aspx

Ready for the hottest contest in town? US Open ATP draw challenge. All are welcome, we had a lot of new participants at Wimbledon which was great.


Kimberly Says:

http://www.tourneytopia.com/RacquetBracketUsOpenWTA/tennisxfansforgirltennis/Pre-Register.aspx

For the bold inviduals who dare to predict the unpredictable, here is the Ladies draw challenge.


john Says:

@Brando

Thx a bunch for all those links, some real nice reading material there.


jane Says:

The mind reels – excellent and fair post at 12:19 – thanks for that! :)


Humble Rafa Says:

IMHO, fed and novak are co- favourites.

People around here don’t like confused people. Make up your mind…Arrogant One or the Egg Lover. If you like to be cuddled, praise the Arrogant One.

Just showing you the ropes. That’s all.


Kimberly Says:

the mind reels, great post. What we don’t want is a site that is only catered to fans of one player. As someone else said, Murray, who has season tickets in the trunk, has been labeled a “choker,” and an event that only happens four years, deserved a write up.


Margot Says:

Skorocel @ 4.06 and the mind reels @ 12.19
Thank you very much. Biased this web site? Oh surely not.
The write up of Andy’s Olympics fell to “Tennis Vagabond” WITHIN one of the topics. And an excellent job s/he made of it too.


Margot Says:

Thumbs up to jane and Kimberly too.


Sean Randall Says:

For those asking, you guys are right. There should have been a Murray post Olympic write-up but because of some bad communication and people on vacation it fell through the cracks.

Had Federer won there likely still wouldn’t have been a write-up as in error no one was allotted to write the post match.

Apologies. The compressed tour schedule even impacts the bloggers!


gordon Says:

If Djokovic was number one then he will face number 3 and two on hiw path to the finals. Having Federer in top spot, the draw will change (like always) and Murray will follow Djokovic to face him in semi-finals. This way Federer will have open road to finals. It is a fact that for Djokovic it does not matter how high he is on his ranking because he will never get anything for free.


Colin Says:

“And unfortunately without seeing the draw it’s hard to bet against Federer or Djokovic dropping out before the semifinals.”

Sean, don’t you mean it’s hard to bet ON them dropping out?


El Mago Says:

I am glad I am not a murray fan! begging for articles! LOL! sad! even the most disgusting rafa fans dont beg for attention for their player.

maybe some rafa and djokovic fans are intentionally trying to make it look like murray and his fans are cheap.

i hope murray actually wins something that really matters. dont tell me murray’s dream is to win a olympics singles and doubles gold like nicolas massu!

i find world team tennis more exciting than olympics. athens and beijing? sydney? atlanta? seoul? barcelona?

5 out of those 6 places have much better venues in cities in their own country. athens, you should have seen the venue they had for tennis! even my local club has better courts than that!

olympics at wimbledon gained a little more importance, but you can tell they were not important because murray didn’t choke.

look at tournaments murray chokes in london – wimbledon and WTF!

you know where he doesn’t choke? queens club, LOL!


El Mago Says:

how can people be so dumb as to complain against draws without any proof.

how would people like it if i said rafa is on dope? really, go check the draws over the past 5 years. there has been absolutely nothing wrong. federer, nadal and djokovic have been all over the top 3 spots.

if djokovic had a tough draw, so did federer always drawing djokovic in the semis, on hardcourt slams. yet, federer fans dont complain. why do djokovic fans whine. if you have a beef, it should be with rafa and him drawing murray, though that would be stupid too. rafa is the weakling on hardcourts. he needs all the help he can get to win slams on hardcourts. he has never beaten federer and djokovic in the same tournament outside clay! oh well, nothing new there.


skeezer Says:

Sean,

Thanks for the explanation and apologies. Bet u guys won’t miss another Murray win! ;)

U guys overall are awesome. Keep up the great stuff of staying on top of the Tennis scene.

Skeez


jane Says:

It was actually a Fed fan (Skorocel) who brought up the issue about the lack of an article on the Olympics gold medal match, and then it was another Fed fan (the mind reels) who fairly explained why it deserved its due mention. So it wasn’t even Murray (or Djokovic or Rafa) fans who raised the issue in the first place. Most people believe the win deserved accolades and analysis – even Sean says so.


john Says:

Gordon Says@

If Djokovic was number one then he will face number 3 and two on hiw path to the finals

What have you been Smoking?

You do know how the draw works right?


courbon Says:

Here is Nole fan-myself.So,I do not care who Nole gets in his draw!If there is Murray-let it be.If Nole wants to be number 1 again and win US open he should be able to bet Murray and the Federer in a final.If he can not do that then he does not deserve to win.Simple as that.I think actaually that Murray is evrlooked and he can easily win tournament.And Federer?Well, he is the greates and he can easily win.I would put Nole as a third favorite.And I can see people mantioning Noles parents…yes , his father and uncle are not that classy people but we are talking about players,not there families so it’s pointless talking about that.Let the best man win and lets enjoy fight ( and for nadals fans-he is greatly missed but he will be back, have a faith).


trufan Says:

Hey Vagabond, don’t get your panties in a bunch. People discuss what they want on these threads. As long as its about tennis, its fair game. This is not a dictatorship! If you don’t like it, don’t come to this forum.

Lets see how the draw turns out tomorrow.


alison Says:

Well said Courbon,all this talk about so and so having an easier draw than so and so,comes up everytime a slam comes around,its pretty pointless and its hardly the players fault anyway,as a fan all i would hope is my favorite gets through each round one at a time,hopefully playing the best that they can,without getting my hopes up or raising my hopes too much,or thinking too far ahead,and your right about the players personal lives,its none of anybody elses buisness.


courbon Says:

Hi Alison, how are you doing?Whats you felling about winner of US Open?


alison Says:

Hi Courbon good thanks, hard to say really both Nole and Roger have done well on the HCs just recently so i would say 50/50,between those two players with Murray slightly behind,been a Brit i would love to see Murray bag his 1st slam,hes my second fav after Rafa,but been no3 seed means he will have the tricky task of having to beat Roger and Nole back to back,which wont be easy,however he did it in the olymics so could be a spring board hopefully.


the mind reels Says:

@El Mago: there are no Murray fans here begging for articles or attention, just a handful of level-headed readers (some of whom are Federer fans) commenting on the recent inequity re: who’s getting write-ups and why. Sean apologized, which was very nice (and, Sean, I agree with Skeezer @ 3.27p), and it’s too bad you seem to have grossly mis-read the aim of these comments about Murray’s gold-medal win.

That’s nice that you find WTT more exciting than the Olympics. By extension, perhaps you also like MLS more than World Cup soccer, which seems like a fitting analogy (although MLS players are all technically professionals, whereas a good chunk of the players in WTT are amateurs).

And yes, let’s rip on Athens, the cradle of the modern Olympic games.


El Mago Says:

Right. fed fans are beggin for an article about murray. yes, that makes sense!


El Mago Says:

the mind reels:

by extension, you must be a fan of all those charity matches where celebs play.

maybe you watch tennis only to see tennis in olympics every 4 years.

majority of tennis fans dont really care for tennis in olympics.

majority of olympics fans dont care for tennis olympics. there are atleast 50 events which are more important in olympics than tennis.

a list of past olympics champs will reveal the kind of mediocrity that olympics encourages in tennis.

thanks, but please keep your olympics tennis just for yourself. i am glad most tennis media didn’t bother about olympics tennis.


skeezer Says:

El Mago,

C’mon man!. The last thing we need here is more over zealous Fed fans. You’re startin to sound like a Rafa fanatic in reverse gear. This site doesn’t say FedererTennis X, and we need welcoming banter from fans of all players. Face it, the likes of Novak and Rafa and Murray are going to be around longer than Fed, and the Game needs them to do well too!

Despite the lowly value coming from some fans about the Olympics, Fed was speaking volumes about how important it was to him waaaaaay back. This is the biggest thing so far that has happened in Murrays career, and his fans so he and his fans deserve some “wooting” time.

Murray won a Gold medal for his country, IN his home country, on the hollowed grounds of Tennis itself. The story was just as important as the Medal.

As a Fed fan, I am way beyond the point now of needing to shout how great he his, he stamped that in concrete this year @31 imho, not that he needed to. Face it, there is really no trash talk left against Fed. He has answered it all. How? WINNING.

For now it is sit back time and enjoy whatever moments he has left, and start enjoying the rest of the players. And most importantly, giving them there due respect when it is earned.

Go Fed!


Polo Says:

The Olympics is the peak among most sports. It is always a source of pride for the country of the winning athlete. It looks like the only people who devalue it are a few Federer fanatics. Just because Federer has not won an Olympic gold does not mean it is not important. I am sure they would sing a different tune had Federer won gold. Sounds like sour grapes to me.


Kimberly Says:

So far the men/women’s pairing of winners have been

Djokovic Azarenka
Nadal Sharapova ( this was the one I liked)
Federer Williams

Will we have a repeat duo (obviously not the second one), a split or a new duo all together

Djoko/Williams
Federer/azarenka
Murray sharapova
Delpo kvitova

Anyone dare to guess the double?


Michael Says:

Both Roger and Novak are joint favourites for the US Open. But my gut feeling tells me that this time a dark horse might emerge to bag this coveted title. It might be Murray or Tsonga or Del Potro or even Raonic. This has been waiting to happen since long. It has been over 30 majors on the trot and 29 of those have been bagged by Roger/Nadal and Novak put together giving others no chance. May be, we are set to see a new star on the horizon. Only time will tell.


Michael Says:

I do not think Roger needs to win this US Open to prove anything. He has already won enough to be heralded as the GOAT. Whatever he garners from now on will only be additions thereby soldifying his place in history. That being said, I see Roger a sure favourite in future majors atleast till he turns 33. Once he catches that age, then his decline might start. But knowing Roger, well he can surprise everyone of us even at that age. However, chances of that happening are minimal.


Wog boy Says:

courbon,

If the others are bringing Nole’s family in to discussion why do you have do that as Nole fan by saying his uncle and father are not classy. I have never heard any of Rogers, Rafas fans talking that way about their families. How do we know how classy they are. I was standing next to Rafa’s father at AO for a few games during Berdych match, he is chain smoker and once you are out for smoking or beer (my case) you can not go back until few games later. I am not going to say do I think he is classy or not, he is only Rafa’s father amd it is not fair to drag him in our conversation as it is not fair to drag anybodys family. So please leave thst to Nole
Live that to Nolehaters, there is few of them on TX:)

Mojne tebra, jeni brodo:)


Rocky Says:

I think Murray might finally break his grand slam hoodoo at US Open and get the bloody monkey off his back….

However….Im leaning more towards Djokovic

He will definately be better then at the Cincinnati Final….

Federer beware….


Rocky Says:

@John

Facts are facts….

Nadal has achieved more then Federer did at the same age….(26 yrs)

Nadal still holds (Head-to-Head) recods between the two….

How many ‘Masters Title’ did Federer have at 26?….I know Nadal has 21 now….(Highest to date thus far till Fed won Cincinnati recently to equal the record)

How long did it take Federer to achieve that?….31? Dont forget that mate….

At 26….Nadal has 11 GS….Federer had 12 then….

Nadal may not beat Federer on Indoor(WTF Masters)….

But its all evened out….Federer can and never will beat Nadal at a FO Final….

Becides….”Federer has never beaten Nadal at Grand Slams since 2008″
Federer can never truly own Grass as compared to say…..

Nadal truly owns Clay….thus far….

At ‘ALL’ GS meetings since 2008(When It Mattered Most)….Nadal has always been the victor….

Is everyone blind?

Stupidity??….

Makes you think twice about the GOAT issue again….

My opinion, Federer may own the GOAT currently….

But Nadal owns Federer where it mattered the most….(Facts are Facts)


Humble Roger Says:

Rocky.

Nadal has NEVER won nadal has NEVER won except clay successively. Even when the grass and hard court are slow now.

Nadal unsportsmansalike

bump Nadal into Rosol at Wimbledon

arrogant sore loser

Nadal bump purposely from frustration. It is clear. Many of tennis fans know that Nadal is a player of dirty gamesmanship.

fake time-out cheater.
too annoying always. excuse. bump to player. ugly protest. push of ego two-year-ranking. etc.

Nadal wear the shirt of “history 7″ Nadal and his fan perform a chat. And that video was exhibited all over the world. selfish arrogant team

Als, insulted Sampras era. nadal said. “It was not true tennis only in the serve..”

nadal has NEVER won except clay successively. Even when the grass and hard court are slow now.

smug arrogant


Skorocel Says:

Again, sorry for being a bit off topic… Just found out one pretty interesting stat to ponder on:

Since the beginning of the 2005 season (i.e. when Nadal burst onto the scene), there have been 70 MS 1000 tournaments played, and out of those 70 tourneys, only 12 of them were won by someone else than Fed / Nadal / Djoker / Murray. That’s something like 83 % success rate for these four, or 17 % for the rest, if you like.


Humble Roger Says:

Djokovic kicks arrogant gamesmanship Nadal in 7 finals all surface.

even if nadal won to Roger Federer.

other faults of Nadal are never lost.

right?


alison Says:

El Mago just to highlight what Skeezer already said,we Brits are very proud of what Murray achieved winning a gold medal for his country,that too by beating and also out playing both Nole and Fed back to back which he has never done before,maybe that doesnt mean much to you,but for his fans this could hopefully be the stepping stone Murray needs to winning his 1st GS we will see though i suppose.


Michael Says:

Nirmal/Jane,

There is something fishy in Novak’s camp. One can sense that. Novak too talked about his personal problems in the post match interview after he lost to Roger at Wimbledon. I am not able to guess what is it ? But Jelana has been conspiciously absent in Novak’s recent matches. I think the problem is right there. May be I am wrong, but sufficient indications point to this fact.


Giles Says:

This site seems to be infested with fed fanatics. Are there any Rafa fans here? I have been reading comments here over the last couple of months and posted for the first time on Monday and looks like the hatred towards Rafa is rampant. Looks like this is a fed fan site!


alison Says:

Rahul that article is nothing new,i read the exact same thing in his autobiography,except for the bit about Rosol,Rafas hoping to be back playing for the DC,although i hope that he does not rush back too soo,the injury he has now is different to that one anyway,his team have said its not serious,but Rafa says he wont rush back.


Giles Says:

We have somebody who calls himself Humble Roger who is constantly trying to denigrate Nadal. This person can’t even speak English. I take it that this is an English speaking site!


Dave Says:

Tignor’s “Fedipal” article is a stupid article that’s embraced like a security blanket by fans of Fed’s rivals [security blanket: a blanket or toy that a child carries around in order to reduce anxiety or provide reassurance]. It’s not surprising that the concept of “Fedipal” would appeal to Tignor (Nadal fan), Hanna Wilks (Nadal fan), Joanna@mariposaxprs (Delpo fan). These writers have their heads stuck in the sand when it comes to Federer. Despite the many years that Federer has achieved his results, the Tignors, Wilks and Joannas of the tennis world still can’t figure out the reason for Federer’s enduring success. They foolishly believe that they can read the minds of their favorite player. And their mind reading shows that their fav player must have a mental block against Federer — if so, then the recipe for success against Federer is as simple as their favorite player staying mentally tough and playing their best (e.g., Joanna: “If DelPo wants to win this QF, he will need to spread his wings and stay self-assured enough to overpower Fed from the baseline, and to keep the first serve % high.”). This is just a the mantra of those who wrote off Federer as an aging player in decline against power players who had belief against Fed.

But “Fedipal complex” fails the test of reality. If the “Fedipal” worked like a hex then his rivals would carry this mental block and lose even when Federer wasn’t playing so well. I have already shown elsewhere that Federer went through his worst slump between 2008 Australian Open to 2009 Rome (precipitated by mononucleosis illness and recurring back injuries) — that’s when Federer’s winning percentage dipped to around 80%, his worst since 2002. During this 1.5 year period, “Fedipal” did not save Federer from Nadal or Murray: against Roger, Murray was 5-1, Nadal was 5-0, Djokovic was 3-2…. 3-13 is the worst record Federer had against them collectively. Since 2009 Rome, an even older Federer has been 19-16 (4-5 against Nadal, 9-8 against Djokovic and 6-3 against Murray). Did Fedipal start working again after 2009 Rome? Nope. Federer tended to win more whenever his confidence and quality of tennis were high — his superior tennis usually won on the day.

‘Mental block against Fed’ is just another convenient excuses for avoiding the real issue why Federer still beats these top players: Fed’s unique, complete and superior game is designed to rush, pressure and break down the games of his opponents — this is how Federer has been achieving success for years against his generation. It’s this combination of fear of what Federer can do (which other players are unable to do) and the reality of what Federer actually did on court that probably gave Djokovic his first set yips on Sunday. Novak came into the final match surely realizing that Federer’s Cincinnati form was as good or better than his Wimbledon form and, once the match started, he was overwhelmed and outplayed by Federer’s early blitz. After playing so well in his previous matches and starting the final match with an ace, Novak soon regressed in the first set to the player he had been in the first half of 2010 (when his yips used to surface on a regular basis, especially in serving). In the second set, Federer took his foot off the gas slightly to cruise… raising his game whenever needed to stay out of trouble. It wasn’t Fedipal messing with Djokovic’s head, it was Federer’s phenomenal play.

As Lleyton Hewitt and other players have observed, Federer has changed how tennis is played. If more players could play like Federer, there would be others playing like him. But there isn’t, because it is very difficult to pull off and no player has the complete game to do so in full. At best, a few talented players like Djokovic and Nadal have been able to incorporate some elements of Federer’s game, but no one has been able to put it all together to the extent Federer has done.


Michael Says:

Murray did very well to win the Olympic Gold medal beating Novak and Roger back-to-back. What impressed me was the way he played in the finals outplaying Roger in his own backyard. I never saw Roger being so helpless on the Grass court as he was on that day. May be, he was a bit fatigued after the long match with Del Potro. But that doesn’t take anything away from Murray. He played sublime Tennis and deserved his victory. His histronics were pleasing to watch. But soon after that, he has lost to a journeyman named Chardy in Cincinnati. He was not able to make the smooth switchover from Grass to Hard courts just like Roger and Novak are doing. Moreover, this year, Murray’s record on hard courts are nothing home to write about. It has been pretty dismal to say the least. Not that, all this will count at the US Open where Murray might turn a new leaf to grab the Championship, but they do give an insight that Murray is still not upto the level of the Top three in Tennis. He has some distance to make up.


Rahul Says:

Alison, I hope because he missed the Olympics he doesnt feel the additional pressure to show up for DC. I should read his autobiography at some point because I had no idea he was so close to retiring in 2005.


Wog boy Says:

Michael,

I don’t think it is Jelena, but anyway how many of us ended up marrying our first girlfriend?
To my knowledge it is just a part of growing up and becaming his own man in some other aspects of life, not tennis life.
Novak is learner…. good one, too.


john Says:

@Rocky

I don’t really feel the need to dignify that with a response. I just feel sorry for you.

Facts are facts, Nadal is out with injury.

Facts are facts, Federer’s year at 31 is better than Nadals at 26.

Nadal wont even be playing at 31.

If you wanna bump up your player fine, but seriously hes not even playing at the moment and this is a thread on Pre-Draw US Open Favorites.

So maybe Its better you talk Nadal when returns to the circuit.Then next year if Nadal beats Fed you can brag about how great Nadal is to beat a 31 year old Fed. IS that all you have left?

And why don’t you compare Feds year at 26 to Nadals at 26…hahah didn’t think so.


Wog boy Says:

Michael,

I know you didn’t talk to me but I took the freedom to butt in.


Giles Says:

Just read an article which says Nole was seen cutting up his rackets with a saw after the Olympics!! Obviously he was very frustrated.


Wog boy Says:

Olympic medal meant more to Nole than Wimbledon, sounds strange but not if you know Nole. He felt that he failed and let down people who were expecting him to bring the medal to Serbia. When Vlade Divac, president of Serbian Olympic Committee and former basketball player (LA Lakers, Sharlotte, Sacramento) walked in to the room and saw Nole braking racquets, Nole turned to him and said “I am sorry” for not winning medal. Winning Toronto i making final at Cincy after that is mighty achievemnt.


alison Says:

Michael never has doesnt necassarily mean never will for Murray,i think its unfair to expect these players to win every week and also play fantastic thay are human,they have ups and downs,ok Rafas not playing but as an example he never did much in 2010 on the HCs,but that year went onto win the USO,whos to say Murrays not capable of doing the same?it wont be easy as nothing worth while ever is,but Andy beat Roger and Djokovic back to back out playing both on a grass court,and hes a better hard court player than Rafa,and this is his best surface,add to that he was very unlucky IMO at this years AO in the semi against Djokovic,who was there for the taking,i just dont see why people are so quick to write him off after suffering a blip,which is what most players have anyway.


skeezer Says:

Does anyone know what time the draw is today? (please post zone time ). Thank you.


alison Says:

Skeezer the draw takes place from 17.00 BST.


skeezer Says:

Thanks Ladies :) Gonna be weird not seein’ Rafa’s name in the draw.


metan Says:

@skeezer,

You didn’t know my rafa is not well, uso is half death without him no.

Btw, you also miss him, wkwkwk-

Your partner mark will never pop up, he is devastated now as rafa withdraw, you are all alone, no more ye ye ye


skeezer Says:

Haha metan wkwk :). Of course he’s missed, I was hoping for the Fed to give him another whoopin!


Dave Says:

Rahul: Alison is right. Nadal’s injury is not serious and probably could return to tennis within a few weeks if he chooses. I hope he should not waste his body on Davis Cup, even though it’s on clay. He might choose to shut down for the year or try to win the World Tour Finals or try to do what Federer did last year (pile up points post USO to make a run in 2013).

Will Swanton’s hyperbolic article that “Nadal was on brink of oblivion as greatest fear arrives” is ridiculous and irresponsible. (And I can’t believe how desperate Tennis Magazine’s Steve Tignor was to quote from that article after admitting it was comical in parts.)

Nadal’s own doctor said his hoffa syndrome knee injury was not important (other newspapers interpreted his remarks to mean it was not serious or not significant). Another Spanish orthopaedic surgeon said Nadal’s hoffa’s syndrome is 100% curable and he should 100% recover with proper treatment. This comes from Spanish newspapers. If the hoffa’s syndrome was serious Nadal would not have kept playing for four months since the problem was first discovered in February. IN addition, Nadal himself claimed that the other knee problem he has (tendinitis) is much better than it used to be three years ago.

Will Nadal keep getting knee and other injuries in future? Most likely. That’s because of the extreme physical way he plays. Even before Nadal’s foot injury flared in late 2005, experts were predicting Nadal would eventually pay the price for abusing his body and pushing his body beyond its physical limits. If how Nadal played was sustainable, there would have been other players emulating his game — they have had 8 years to copy him. Common sense prevailed.

Will Swanton’s article and Nadal’s autobiography refers to Nadal’s 2005 foot injury — but parts of those accounts are contradicted by the original news reports.

- Nadal’s 2005 foot injury flared up at Madrid indoors which he won on October 23 (Nadal went off the tour for almost four months until 2006 Rotterdam). If my memory is correct, Nadal’s book claimed the first doctor who diagnosed him said that the injury was so serious he wouldn’t be able to continue playing tennis. The book took the opportunistically blew up the incident — Nadal cried, his family cried, he was depressed, he contemplated retiring and playing golf, blah, blah. This whole pretense of Nadal being close to retirement was a big joke of gullible fans. When someone is told they have cancer and six months to live what do they do? Get a second opinion from another doctor. That’s what Team Nadal did and found a solution. Now whether Nadal’s injury and diagnosis was even as serious as claimed is contradicted by what happened a few weeks later.

- In November 15, 2005, within three weeks after Madrid ended and supposedly being told his career was over due to his foot problem, Nadal actually traveled to China expecting to play in the Tennis Masters Cup (World Tour Finals). He withdrew only hours before his first scheduled match, claiming his left foot injury was not healed yet. He remained off tour for the next 2.5 months. If Nadal’s injury was so serious or career threatening, what was he doing in China? (Did Nadal fly to China to compete in the WTF because Federer was on an injury break due to torn ankle ligaments and he saw his chance to close the rankings gap with Federer? Did Nadal withdraw at the last minute because Federer unexpectedly returned from his injury break and showed up to play at the WTF?)
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-11/15/content_494564.htm

- In 2007, uncle Toni told a Spanish newspaper that Nadal’s 2005 foot injury was very serious and left the impression that it had been career threatening. This caused worldwide press headlines that Nadal’s career/future was threatened. It is questionable why Toni chose to reveal Rafa’s 2005 injury just days after Rafa finished the 2007 season uninjured and played exhibitions after the season ended. Perhaps Toni was playing the 2005 injury card because Nadal suffered a string of losses on hardcourts in the second half of 2007 — including beatdowns by Federer and Nalbandian (twice) as wells as losses to David Ferrer (twice), Djokovic and Juan Monaco.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/tennis/atptour/2326950/Foot-fault-threatens-Rafael-Nadals-career.html

- Nadal and his publicist Benito immediately denied the claims. “This injury hasn’t stopped me competing at the top level for over two years. The story is totally false,” said Nadal, flanked by his uncle. Nadal’s publicist Benito: “Rafael’s career is not in danger… He sustained an injury to his left foot in 2005 which was treated then. He sometimes has a little pain with it that comes and goes, but every player plays with a little pain… He was the guy who played the second-most number of matches and he wouldn’t do that if it was a serious problem… It isn’t career-threatening… Rafa is not happy with what came out. He arrived back from a holiday in Egypt today and he starts training tomorrow, and plays an exhibition in Malaga at the weekend.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/tennis/7117076.stm

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/tennis/atptour/2327035/Rafael-Nadal-plays-down-injury-scare.html

- Nadal’s doctor also jumped in to say that Nadal was in perfect condition and he was certain the 2005 foot injury — related to the stress fracture he picked up in 2004 — was not a major problem. “It was a stress fracture in the left foot,” he said. “Once cured, a specific programme was instigated along with his fitness trainer, Joan Forcades, and physiotherapist, Rafael Maymo. From a medical point of view, by following the programme Rafael has been able to develop his professional career to the highest level, winning 23 titles over the last three years.”
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tennis/news/story?id=3134729

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/tennis/whats-up-with-rafa-769793.html

- Has any tennis writer who quotes the Will Swanton article or Nadal’s autobiography bothered to check and reconcile the contradictions between what was written now and what happened in 2005 and 2007? Nope.


Giles Says:

Murray in federer’s half!


Pitchaboy Says:

Murray and fed same half


Kimberly Says:

Skeezer, you may have been hoping for that but unless rafa shows up on a wheelchair in a best of five outdoors I don’t see it happening.

He may need his knees to beat Rosol but not federer. Lol. I’m just trash talking and kidding. Hope u r not offended.


trufan Says:

OK, Fed is not winning the US Open if he has to beat Djokovic and Murray on consecutive days. Period. One of them has to lose early for Fed to win. Or Ferrer gives Djokovic hell in the semi.

The old man needs a break.


tennisnotanolympicsport Says:

Murray cannot beat Federer at the US Open! He has a much better chance in Australia. Do u guys remember the 2008 demolition? I am not saying it will be that 1 sided again, but Roger will win the match! We can than expect a classic final with Federer playing against Djokovic. It will be a toss up!


Giles Says:

^ With all due respect, I think Murray is a much better player now compared to 2008. I seem to remember that was his debut in a GS final.


skeezer Says:

@K

Lol, now that would something to watch. Fed vs Rafa in wheelchair tennIs, who’s the pick?


dari Says:

Ok so fed gets Murray in the semi *IF* they both get there. Hear that, wog boy?

Shame they are on same side, they are my two faves.
Who got delpo?


jane Says:

If things go to seed, QFs: Fed/Berd, Murray/Tsonga, Nole/Delpo, Ferrer/Tipsy.

Not sure about others, like Roddick, Raonic, Fish, Isner, Monaco, and so on, as haven’t seen the full draw; when I go to the USO site, it’s not there.


El Flaco Says:

Fed will probably have to beat Fish, Berdych, Murray then Djokovic to win. I don’t think he can do it.


Brando Says:

WOW- did not expect muzza on Feds side! Nole is the DEFINITE fav now! Cannot see fed beating Murray, novak in consecutive days at age 31! Unlucky!


Brando Says:

DAMN IT- muzza has an awful draw! Raonic, tsonga, federer, djokovic! The draw from hell! :-(


El Flaco Says:

Fed always gets the late match too so he would have to beat Murray Saturday evening then come back Sunday afternoon to play Djokovic. The only exception to that might be if Isner gets to the semifinal in the bottom half against Djokovic they would put that as the late match Saturday because Isner is American.


Brando Says:

Nole fans must be pleased. For once he’s landed with the easiest draw. Bet nole is grinning from ear to ear with this draw!


trufan Says:

Verdasco (being a lefty and a good hardcourt player) may give Fed some trouble in the 3rd round.

Delpo plays Nalbandian in the first round – what a cracker of a match, and what an unfortunate coincidence for Argentinians!


El Flaco Says:

Agree Brando. Very difficult draw for Murray.


jane Says:

^ ? El Flaco “Fed always gets the late match too” – Fed and Nole played first last year, I’m sure. Can’t recall previous years.

This is the first time in 4 years straight that Nole vs Fed won’t meet in the semis. It’s weird.


Brando Says:

@el flasco: fed most certainly will play the 2nd match. He’s snookered, IMHO, with this draw and the super Saturday, Sunday final schedule.


trufan Says:

And Donald Young gets Federer in the first round!! with a 2-20 record this year, and I think 18 straight losses, just make that 19 now…

I can’t understand how he is still ranked 80th in the world, when he has a 2-20 match record in 2012!! Is men’s tennis THAT shallow now, and you have to do pretty much nothing to be in the top 100??

Hope Raonic takes care of Murray in the 4th round.


jane Says:

Delpo QF could be tough, imo, should that match happen, although not sure about his wrist or what. Anyhow, Delpo is the only other former USO champ in the draw, besides Roddick, Fed and Nole.


Brando Says:

@el flasco: feel awful for andy. I just CANNOT see him beating fed and nole back to back in a slam, in consecutive days. It’s asking too much IMHO, mentally, from him. :-(


Brando Says:

My gut feeling right now is a fed v tsonga, nole v whoever SF. Fed v nole for the final, with a nole win in 4!


jane Says:

It is a tough draw for Andy, but he handles big servers like Raonic well and has an excellent record over Tsonga.

Fed in the semis is tough – have watched Nole struggle through that for 4 years in a row, and now Murray will have a go.

BUT, maybe Andy playing Fed in a semi instead of a final will take some pressure off (assuming both get there)? Andy has never faced Fed in a slam semi – their only 3 slam matches have all been in finals. So perhaps this could be good?


El Flaco Says:

Oh yeah. Already forgot about that Jane. Also I think Fed did play the early semi one additional time in his prime(2004-7) because Roddick got the late match.


jane Says:

^ I mean good insofar as it’s not a final and so all the pressure that comes with that is quelled to some degree.


jane Says:

El Flaco, I think after the 2010 5 set match they must have thought it better to schedule Nole-Fed early in 2011. I feel like Fed-Nole were the early semi in 2008 too for some reason, but maybe not.


trufan Says:

Murray is not liekly to win a slam. A lot of things had to happen for him to win the olympics – home crowd, tired federer, etc. etc.

Henman holds the record for the maximum slam semi without ever reaching the final (0-6). Murray right now holds the record for the maximum slam finals without ever winning one (0-4). My feeling is he extends this record to come closer to his countryman.

I think Murray will eventually complete the “Murray Slam” – reach all 4 slam finals without EVER winning a slam. Nobody has ever done that, but Murray has done 3/4 of that already!


jane Says:

I wouldn’t be surprised if Goffin beats Berdych round 1. That’s an interesting first rounder, as is Nalby/Delpo (if unfortunate).

I also think there’s a strong possibility Raonic won’t even make it far enough to meet Murray. Just a thought.


jane Says:

trufan, I am pretty sure Lendl lost 4 slam finals before winning 8 slams. So I wouldn’t write off Andy just yet. Also Andy beat Nole and then Fed back-to-back at the Olympics.


Brando Says:

The best bet for andy here would be IF he beats fed in the SF, and then faces a del potro who faced a tough match aainst ferrer in SF. Never will ferrer make the fianl, and delpo IS ALOT easier to face than nole for him. IF it’s fed and then nole- I don’t see him winning. Too difficult of a task IMHO for muzza. Even my fav rafa for that matter.


El Flaco Says:

Berdy could have trouble with Goffin or Istomin although Istomin played like crap last week. Also, Querrey would be a tough match as well if they meet in the 3rd round.


Kimberly Says:

skeezer, i think wheelchair tennis would favor rafa even more that regular tennis with his high bouncing ball to feds backhand, lol.


El Mago Says:

I think federer has won the most USO’s after playing 2nd semi on super-saturday. most people dont.

Federer-murray will be 2nd semi becuase it will be prime-time in UK. if isner or roddick make it to the semis, though, fed might get the 1st semi-final.

Over the years, fed has not been a wussy like nadal, djokovic or murray who keep faking injuries, medical time outs and the whole drama queen episodes. tommy haas called murray a faker and well roddick made an azz out of djokovic when he was being stupid [i guess he got that from his mom. i am glad he is keeping her away from his matches.] and nadal, well the whole world knows his injury dramas!

tennis is already the winner with rafa out. may the best player win. i hope murray wins so that his fans will not have to go around begging for people to write articles.


Kimberly Says:

Submit your bracket here:
http://www.tourneytopia.com/RacquetBracketUsOpenATP/tennisxrocks/default.aspx.

The deadline to enter is 8/27/2012 11:00 AM Eastern Standard Time.

It’s on like Donkey Kong!


Kimberly Says:

Submit your bracket here:
http://www.tourneytopia.com/RacquetBracketUsOpenWTA/tennisxfansforgirltennis/default.aspx.

The deadline to enter is 8/27/2012 11:00 AM Eastern Standard Time

The WTA bracket, which i am looking forward to even if no one else is. For the bold and brave.


Dave Says:

Rahul: Alison is right. Nadal’s injury is not serious and probably could return to tennis within a few weeks if he chooses. I hope he should not waste his body on Davis Cup, even though it’s on clay. He might choose to shut down for the year or try to win the World Tour Finals or try to do what Federer did last year (pile up points post USO to make a run in 2013).

Will Swanton’s hyperbolic article that “Nadal was on brink of oblivion as greatest fear arrives” is ridiculous and irresponsible. (And I can’t believe how desperate Tennis Magazine’s Steve Tignor was to quote from that article after admitting it was comical in parts.)

Nadal’s own doctor said his hoffa syndrome knee injury was not important (other newspapers interpreted his remarks to mean it was not serious or not significant). Another Spanish orthopaedic surgeon said Nadal’s hoffa’s syndrome is 100% curable and he should 100% recover with proper treatment. This comes from Spanish newspapers. If the hoffa’s syndrome was serious Nadal would not have kept playing for four months since the problem was first discovered in February. IN addition, Nadal himself claimed that the other knee problem he has (tendinitis) is much better than it used to be three years ago.

Will Nadal keep getting knee and other injuries in future? Most likely. That’s because of the extreme physical way he plays. Even before Nadal’s foot injury flared in late 2005, experts were predicting Nadal would eventually pay the price for abusing his body and pushing his body beyond its physical limits. If how Nadal played was sustainable, there would have been other players emulating his game — they have had 8 years to copy him. Common sense prevailed.

Will Swanton’s article and Nadal’s autobiography refers to Nadal’s 2005 foot injury — but parts of those accounts are contradicted by the original news reports.

- Nadal’s 2005 foot injury flared up at Madrid indoors which he won on October 23 (Nadal went off the tour for almost four months until 2006 Rotterdam). If my memory is correct, Nadal’s book claimed the first doctor who diagnosed him said that the injury was so serious he wouldn’t be able to continue playing tennis. The book took the opportunistically blew up the incident — Nadal cried, his family cried, he was depressed, he contemplated retiring and playing golf, blah, blah. This whole pretense of Nadal being close to retirement was a big joke of gullible fans. When someone is told they have cancer and six months to live what do they do? Get a second opinion from another doctor. That’s what Team Nadal did and found a solution. Now whether Nadal’s injury and diagnosis was even as serious as claimed is contradicted by what happened a few weeks later.

- In November 15, 2005, within three weeks after Madrid ended and supposedly being told his career was over due to his foot problem, Nadal actually traveled to China expecting to play in the Tennis Masters Cup (World Tour Finals). He withdrew only hours before his first scheduled match, claiming his left foot injury was not healed yet. He remained off tour for the next 2.5 months. If Nadal’s injury was so serious or career threatening, what was he doing in China? (Did Nadal fly to China to compete in the WTF because Federer was on an injury break due to torn ankle ligaments and he saw his chance to close the rankings gap with Federer? Did Nadal withdraw at the last minute because Federer unexpectedly returned from his injury break and showed up to play at the WTF?)
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-11/15/content_494564.htm

- In 2007, uncle Toni told a Spanish newspaper that Nadal’s 2005 foot injury was very serious and left the impression that it had been career threatening. This caused worldwide press headlines that Nadal’s career/future was threatened. It is questionable why Toni chose to reveal Rafa’s 2005 injury just days after Rafa finished the 2007 season uninjured and played exhibitions after the season ended. Perhaps Toni was playing the 2005 injury card because Nadal suffered a string of losses on hardcourts in the second half of 2007 — including beatdowns by Federer and Nalbandian (twice) as wells as losses to David Ferrer (twice), Djokovic and Juan Monaco.

- Nadal and his publicist Benito immediately denied the claims. “This injury hasn’t stopped me competing at the top level for over two years. The story is totally false,” said Nadal, flanked by his uncle. Nadal’s publicist Benito: “Rafael’s career is not in danger… He sustained an injury to his left foot in 2005 which was treated then. He sometimes has a little pain with it that comes and goes, but every player plays with a little pain… He was the guy who played the second-most number of matches and he wouldn’t do that if it was a serious problem… It isn’t career-threatening… Rafa is not happy with what came out. He arrived back from a holiday in Egypt today and he starts training tomorrow, and plays an exhibition in Malaga at the weekend.”

- Nadal’s doctor also jumped in to say that Nadal was in perfect condition and he was certain the 2005 foot injury — related to the stress fracture he picked up in 2004 — was not a major problem. “It was a stress fracture in the left foot,” he said. “Once cured, a specific programme was instigated along with his fitness trainer, Joan Forcades, and physiotherapist, Rafael Maymo. From a medical point of view, by following the programme Rafael has been able to develop his professional career to the highest level, winning 23 titles over the last three years.”

- Has any tennis writer who quotes the Will Swanton article or Nadal’s autobiography bothered to check and reconcile the contradictions between what was written now and what happened in 2005 and 2007? Nope.

I originally posted this post (with more links to verify what I said) but since the moderator has not cleared it, I’ve had to remove 5 links. So if you want the evidence in the link, just ask.


trufan Says:

Jane,

you are right, lendl did lose his first 4 slam finals – but that is very rare. Also, he did finally win his first slam at age 24, and had won the YEC at age 22, and the year end masters at age 21.

Murray finally won an olympic gold at age 25, but his time is running out. And with Fed, Nadal and Djoke still there, it looks tough. If he can lose to Chardy just last week, I don’t know if he can win the USO.

And lastly, Lendl was lendl. Murray aint no lendl, that’s for sure. Lendl was one of the greatest players ever.


MMT Says:

“jane Says: I wouldn’t be surprised if Goffin beats Berdych round 1.”

Funny you should mention that – I was wondering why it was that Berdych always seems to do so poorly at the US Open. Given his big serve and forehand, and pretty good backhand, you’d think the surface there was made for him.

Then I looked at his record at all the majors, and it turns out for a guy ranked in the top 10, he is amazingly profligate at the majors. In 36 that he’s played, he’s only made the QF 5 times, and 2 of them were in 2010. Since then he’s only made 2, and they were both at the Australian when most players aren’t in their stride, and almost nobody is tired or injured.

I don’t get it, to be honest. He has excellent technique off of both wings, a great first serve, and he’s adequate coming forward, so I really don’t understand why he hasn’t done better.

With Tsonga you can point to iffy technique from the baseline, which if he plays someone who can keep him there, or beat him to the net, he’s in trouble. With Ferrer it’s obvious that he lacks the firepower to finish points off, and he just has to work too hard to beat the best players with any consistency. del Potro, though’s he’s won a major, relies too much on power – what does he do when someone can handle it and diffuse it? Not much – he’s serviceable at the net, but has to be dragged kicking and screaming to it. Tipsarevic’s game is too flat, and too high risk – he’s has almost no gear besides the top one, and if it’s no good, it’s no really good.

But Berdych – what in the world is the reason why Berdych has so much trouble getting consistent results? I haven’t quite figured that one out.


jane Says:

MMT, when you point out those numbers it’s amazing how poorly Berdych has done at the slams. I can’t figure it out either. It could be between the ears, i.e., tactics or how he plays the big points, or maybe he’s predictable? Thus, the players get a read on his serve game or groundstroke patterns and that makes him more beatable?


trufan Says:

Good analysis MMT…

I think Berdych’s problem is between the ears. He is not a “great” mover on the court, and is just not consistent enough in big matches. THat’s why he has performed much better in best of 3 matches.

The top 3 (maybe the top 4) players are so far above the rest now, that it is nearly impossible for anyone else to win a slam. Delpo is the only one, but his wrist is now under question.

I do have big hopes from Raonic, if only he can improve his movement and fitness. The guy has the BEST service games held percentage on tour, and can hit big.


Wog boy Says:

dari,

I can hear you, nice and loud.
Don’t tell me you got upset with me?


Alok Says:

The people who complain that Djokovic is always in Fed’s draw should be happy with this draw.

The Murray fans were speculating that he’s bound to fall on Djokovic’s side.

Now they’ve all been proven wrong. But that won’t stop them from whining though. I bet we’ll hear them say that djokovic and Murray have got the toughest draw.

Djokovic has announced he’ll be in NewJersey with his friends who have great training facilities, the egg included.

Those who said the GS tourneys favor Fed with the early start are forgetting that it was Nadal who liked to play second, and requested a late start, which is the reason Fed walked out on Center. The conspiracy theories and the whining will come out at some point.


Reyals Says:

5th Wimbledon/USO double for Federer this year imo.

Top story: Coric Ends Nadal's Season In Basel, Federer Overwhelms Dimitrov; Ferrer v Murray In Valencia
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Rankings
ATP - Oct 20 WTA - Oct 20
1 Novak Djokovic1 Serena Williams
2 Roger Federer2 Maria Sharapova
3 Rafael Nadal3 Simona Halep
4 Stan Wawrinka4 Petra Kvitova
5 David Ferrer5 Na Li
6 Tomas Berdych6 Agnieszka Radwanska
7 Kei Nishikori7 Eugenie Bouchard
8 Marin Cilic8 Ana Ivanovic
9 Milos Raonic9 Caroline Wozniacki
10 Andy Murray10 Angelique Kerber
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