Roger Federer Falls Out Of Top 8 In 2013 Rankings

Nadal is now about 1,000 points behind Ferrer which will make it very difficult for him to get back to #4 before the French. If Nadal sweeps Barcelona/Madrid/Rome and Ferrer doesn’t defend his clay points from last year then he could get back to #4.

April 22nd, 2013 at 10:31 am

Super interesting, and a very interesting point from Flaco. First of all, Federer: I think most people will think this a blip, that Fed will bounce back into the thick of things. If not Slam contention, at least top 4. I do think that, but! Federer has been so incredibly consistent over the last few years, this kind of absence from Slam and Masters contention (exaggerated by skipping Miami and Monte Carlo) seems new to me. I don’t think he’s made a final in four months. Federer had an outstanding 2012, but this seems new territory. Fed Decline Radar should be on high.
Also interesting to see Tsonga, Berdych, Del Potro establishing themselves now, almost three years in a row, as the next tier (Ferrer has been there even longer).
Now add Gasquet: does anyone believe he can score a major win over the Big Four? Not until he does.

As far as Rafa falling out of the top four for French: maybe, as interesting as it seems, it doesn’t matter in terms of winning the tournament, as much as scheduling. No one will slow Rafa down at ROland Garros until NOle.
So what we may see is a championship match in the quarterfinals!

April 22nd, 2013 at 11:05 am

Re Rafa’s rank:

He was never really going to be a top 4 ranked player prior to RG.

So anything has changed on that front IMO.

The seeding:

That just mean’s that he will face one of the top 4 at the QF.

No big deal IMHO.

Even if he were no.1 he would get a top 4 player at the SF stage- so zero change there being 5 instead.

And is Rafa good enough to beat Fed, Ferru or Andy at the QF stage and that too without being stretched beyond 4 sets at RG?

History suggests that he is.

Novak at QF?

Why not. 4

April 22nd, 2013 at 11:10 am

I get a feeling that Fed might just get out of top 10 this year!

April 22nd, 2013 at 11:50 am

This is perfect for Federer. Out off the picture, under the radar. Low profiel but I can assure you that it is boiling inside. He is building and preparing his mind and body to excel in paris and london.

His low profiel and lesser expectations are just what the dochter ordered.

April 22nd, 2013 at 11:59 am

I get a feeling that Fed might just retire this year.

April 22nd, 2013 at 12:07 pm

You need to look at this month’s ranking points. The Arrogant One is unranked by that metric. How the mightly have fallen!

April 22nd, 2013 at 1:58 pm

^ don’t you worry. you will fall too. probably much earlier :)

April 22nd, 2013 at 2:04 pm

“So what we may see is a championship match in the quarterfinals!”

I presume you have a Rafa-Novak quarter final in mind but that would be a shame. These are the two best players on clay and Novak is the only genuine threat to Rafa. Rafa would beat Roger, Andy or David quite handily at any stage. I hope Novak and Rafa meet in the final. Roger played spoilsport in 2011 when a lot of people thought Novak had a very good shot at beating Rafa in the final.

Roger is presumably not concerned with his ranking at all. He probably would like to sneak in one more Wimby and call it a day. Things are just going to get tougher and tougher for him going forward. He should sneak into the WTF though.

April 22nd, 2013 at 2:10 pm

What matters is that even with his lower performance this year Federer is still #2 player in the ranking, what really count. His consistancy all u=years is what makes that possbile, as he have shown in last 10 years. Not bad HR, no?
Eventually race will equal rankings but we can safelly say that by the time Wimbledon ends, big 4 will be exactly where they belong, maybe in a different order. But rest assure, they will all be there, as always in last 4 years.

April 22nd, 2013 at 2:14 pm

Brando, dodn’t agree Nadal place in the draw can change everything.

If he ise seeded to meet Djoko in quarters or semis, we all know Djoko is the opnly player with a shot, not givem, a shot at beaten rafa in RG. Imagine for Federer if he have Murrya in his semis, who may not get there, and Rafa and Djoko have to fight in the semis, and imnagine if this macth goes to a fifth set the way they play. The winner (if Djoko), may arrive in the final as Walkind dead zombie. Fed can even sneak a victory in this scenario, as he has a way better chance of beating Nole than Nadal in a possible RG final. Of course, Djoko will be oumped up, the herculean effect of beating Nadal in MC and RG in the same year may drain him mentally. Who knows…?

That’s why Nadal place in the RG draw will be determinant of the possible proscpect for the eventual champion. I think also for Djokovic is way better to meet Rafa before the final, in Quarters or semis. My twocent! The trophy will be one by one of those 3 and we still have to check Fed’s form on clay, which we only know by the time Rome ends, as he always delivers in Madrid, which is non significant RG wise (but for Wimbledon, is huge, last 4 winner there won Madrid:)

April 22nd, 2013 at 2:21 pm

@Daniel:

I know what you mean.

But my take is from a Rafa fan’s perspective:

Worse case QF? Meeting Novak.

Well he more than likely will have to anyhow in order to win RG- so why not QF as opposed to SF or final?

No different at all IMO.

Should he get Fed, Ferru or Muzza- well I think he can do fine against them.

IMHO, if Rafa is at his absolute best, then for him the draw will not be an issue.

Hence, as a fan of his I rather he be on form by then and I am not concerned at all with the draw if that is the case with Rafa.

April 22nd, 2013 at 2:58 pm

“If the ATP’s regular season finished today”…

Well, it didn’t and it won’t.

This article only seems to exist for the purpose of stirring up negative sentiments. Sad, indeed.

April 22nd, 2013 at 7:46 pm

Mark my words, rafa will draw federer In the quarters.

April 22nd, 2013 at 10:16 pm

Kimberly,

i hope your wrong, but your probably right ;)

April 22nd, 2013 at 10:18 pm

I think the only scenario where being seeded 5 for Rafa is an issue is if he ends up in Djoko’s quarter as Daniel said. There would be less pressure on Djoko than if it were a final where a win would get him his 1st slam at RG. On clay any other draw permutations of Rafa seeded 5th don’t matter.

April 22nd, 2013 at 10:34 pm

Mark my words, rafa will draw federer In the quarters.
—
That will be just like a first round match. The man can’t hit 3 backhands in a row. I am worried about the little baby goat.

April 22nd, 2013 at 10:51 pm

As I said, I will not be surprised if Roger fails to qualify for the World Tour Finals this time around. He has many points to defend going forward. His only chance is winning Madrid and Wimbledon which I think would be pretty difficult considering his age and the competition that is around. Then he won Cincinnati last year and so things are not going to be any easy for him.

April 23rd, 2013 at 12:53 am

HR,

You might have a chance to play baby goat sooner than you think, in Barcelona. Pretty strong field!

April 23rd, 2013 at 12:57 am

We have 2 situations where Nadal as #5 is concerned, whose quarter and top of bottom of the draw. Because he can get Djoko in Quarters or semis. And Fed and Murray will still have to establish who will be #2 entering RG. After Madrid, will probably be Murray, but Rome can still change.

What really is concerning and hard to happen (especially for those of draw conspiracy theory) is that Djoko, Fed and Nadal could be all in the same side of the draw. Dkoko #1, Fed #3 and Nadal #5. Actually the odds is higher then we think, if for example #8 is in this side as well. The other side will be #2, #4, #6 and #7, on paper an even draw. That would be something: possible Fed x Nadal quarters, than Nadal x Djoko semis. That would be 2 championship matches before the final. Where Murray may not even be last man standing. That would be something!!!

April 23rd, 2013 at 1:17 am

Daniel,

That really would be something. It will give someone like ferrer a great chance to make their 1st grandslam final. It will be great to have a draw like that.

April 23rd, 2013 at 1:25 am

For tennis fans;

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/tennis/news/20130422/rafael-nadal-loses-novak-djokovic-monte-carlo/

April 23rd, 2013 at 1:36 am

Daniel, that would be something alright. I don’t know if it would be good though.

April 23rd, 2013 at 1:54 am

Surely RG should do the sensible thing and seed Rafa and Nole as 1 and 2? Anything else is frankly laughable and not in a good way either.
And realistically, and am saying this in the context of a truly besotted fan, Andy should be seeded somewhere like 12!

April 23rd, 2013 at 2:16 am

Don’t agree Margot, regardless of event pedigree, players play last 52 weeks to earn their ranking. If Murray would than be #2 is because he earned it, being the second bets and most consistent player. Nadal would not because (injury) wasn’t able to be consistent and Fed (missing tourneys to reduce schedule).
If that indeed happen not Murray or Ferrer faults.
it will just be odd.

April 23rd, 2013 at 2:46 am

But Daniel, u can’t get over fact that Andy has problems on clay. That may change, but at the mo any in top 10, and below, eg Stan could beat him ..
And wherever Rafa is in the general seedings he is still at the top on clay. It’ll be interesting at Wimbledon if Rog and Andy are seeded 1 and 2, what do u feel about that, as Nole will undoubtedly be No 1 still?.
The above scenario at RG where Nole/Rafa/Fed all meet b4 the final is um…..strange…um….
Good to see u back btw :)

April 23rd, 2013 at 3:41 am

The odds for Novak, Fed and Rafa playing in the same side of the draw are 25%. Of course, it depends also of Fed ranking before Paris.

@Margot:

I watched the first set of Murray-Wawrinka on youtube. I don’t think Murray has problems on clay. He just had a bad day.

April 23rd, 2013 at 4:20 am

@Margot – seeded 12? I expect you’re exaggerating a little, to lower expectations perhaps? ;) He has made the SF at RG and QFs twice, and reached the SFs at MC and Rome. He has the chops to be seeded higher.

As mat4 says, it was just a (really) bad day. He wasn’t sliding comfortably yet and unable to go for his shots. Wawa said in his presser that he was aware it was his 2nd match and that he was able to exploit the rustiness.

The good news is that Andy and Lendl stayed behind the whole week in MC and practised intensively. He has also played competitive sets with Berdych and Pico, even yesterday with Dolgo. He was set to go watch Monaco FC with Nole last night.
Lendl said he’s much happier with Andy’s movement & more penetrating shots. Positive news. We’ll see.

April 23rd, 2013 at 5:21 am

Daniel,

Roger, Novak and Rafa on the same side of draw at Rolland Garros. Well I dread that prospect. But it may happen. I only hope that it doesn’t happen. What would be apt for Rolland Garros will only be a Rafa vs Novak final. The fight between the Gladiators. May the best win.

April 23rd, 2013 at 5:58 am

@the DA
Well, he made that SF at RG because first round he played my grandma, second my gr8 uncle who had a bad leg that day….u get the picture?…;) Joking apart he’s something like 15 in ATP reliability thingunmebob for clay.
@mat4
“bad” day? Shocking more like!

April 23rd, 2013 at 5:59 am

PS Do folk feel Wimbedon is the aberration, or is it other Grand Slams?

April 23rd, 2013 at 6:00 am

@Margot:

Yes, it was a really bad day. I wanted to see what was Wawrnka’s level, since it was indeed a surprise for me. Stan didn’t play well, but Andy’s game was abysmal.

Murray will sell his skin very costly at the FO, and with a good draw, I can even see him win.

April 23rd, 2013 at 8:35 am

I could see Murray winning the French Open if he had a very favorable draw and Nadal Fed and Djoko beat each other up on the other side.

But for some reason I just feel certain that Nadal will get Federer in the quarters. And Federer will be mildly annoyed but say how its nice for the fans.

April 23rd, 2013 at 10:51 am

Margot,

Regarding Wimbedon we all know they sees different but there is some reason behind it. I think someone once posted the formula. They take acount last 2 years and actual rankings qith different weights. Djoko being #1 (with a big cushoon that can get bigger if he improve Madrid result), winner in 2011 I don’t think he will be seeded #2.

April 23rd, 2013 at 11:07 am

If tennis didn’t have monkeys deciding how the draw is made, as the rankings stand right now, the draw should come out with:

Q1: Djokovic-Tsonga
Q2: Ferrer-Nadal
Q3: Federer-DelPotro
Q4: Murray-Berdych

April 23rd, 2013 at 11:37 am

^I went by the rankings, not the race (just to be clear).

April 23rd, 2013 at 11:38 am

Nadal actually dodges a bullet in avoiding a QF with Delpo although he gains the danger of Djokovic. Delpo at his “A” game may trouble Rafa although I don’t think he would ultimately prevail, as Djokovic could.

But none of it matters. Rafa will draw Roger in the QF for sure. I feel absolutely certain of it. Just like Indian Wells, I knew it would happen.

April 23rd, 2013 at 4:21 pm

Just checked ATP site and unless Murray does nothing and Fed defend Madrid, Murray will be seeded #2 in RG.

He defends 10 points next 2 tourneys while Federer defends 1360 pts, win and semis.

Meaning we have to see 1, where Fed will be placed, Djoko’s or Murray? and 2 where Nadal will be placed in whch side if the draw, top or bottom and than whose quarters (Djoko, Murray, Fed or Ferrer).

April 23rd, 2013 at 6:43 pm

Take it from me the supposed Goat will be outside the top Ten by beginning of 2014. For all practical purposes he is finished.

April 24th, 2013 at 3:14 am

By the contrary, Fed is in the eye of the tiger up in the mountains somewhere. Playing in a potatofield of a claycourt, probably hauling buckets of water from early dawn Rocky style. He’ll come down with lightning bolts shooting out of his @ss in Madrid and Rome before unleashing his wrath over the mortals come RG.

Take it from me.

April 24th, 2013 at 5:16 am