Am I Nuts For Picking Roger Federer To Win Wimbledon?
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This will be a quick post. As I wrote in my preview I thought Roger Federer had the best draw of the Big Four. But Federer hasn’t won a Slam since the 2012 Wimbledon and he hasn’t even reached a Grand Slam final since that event.
That said, who’s his competition?
Regardless of what he says I just don’t think Novak Djokovic’s wrist is fully healed anymore. And I don’t know how much he has in his emotional reserves after losing to Rafael Nadal at the French and with a wedding to Jelena Ristic in less than three weeks. Not on his least favorite surface.
Meanwhile Nadal may still be the King of Clay however on grass he’s an entirely different animal losing his last three on the surface. And he’s worried about his back, knees and now the draw. I still think the first week is where he’s most vulnerable, but he’s not as good as he was a year ago and we all know what happened at the 2013 Wimbledon.
Like Federer, I love Andy Murray’s draw. I think he could get back to the final. But defending his title and returning to the Wimbledon title match for a third straight is just asking too much from the numbers especially with a new coach.
As for Federer, well his draw is almost as good as the one he got at the French just without Gulbis and Berdych. There’s Julien Benneteau who took him to five a couple of years ago.
There’s another Frenchman, Nicolas Mahut, he won’t beat Federer.
In the fourth round it’ll be the struggling Jerzy Janowicz, Tommy Robredo or Lleyton Hewitt. If hot, Janowicz can be dangerous but Roger will beat Robredo or Hewitt.
In the quarters Roger’s looking at John Isner, Feliciano Lopez or maybe Stan Wawrinka. On hardcourts those matchups would spell trouble, but on grass I like Federer.
So in the semis is where Federer will face his first real test. And he won’t beat Nadal. No way. But if it’s not Rafa and instead say Richard Gasquet, Milos Raonic, Phil Kohlschreiber or Kei Nishikori – Federer will be heavily favored and should win.
Then in the final without Rafa I think anything’s possible. Djokovic has lost five of his last six Slam finals. Murray hasn’t won a title since that Wimbledon. So maybe it can be Federer…
In my earlier story I had wrote that Federer needed a great draw. He got that. Then he needed to get some upsets. I think he’s going to get that. If he doesn’t and Nadal, Djokovic and Murray are still around the last weekend, Federer’s not winning.
But in this case, with no one making a strong case, Federer stands out as the healthiest, the most motivated and I think Edberg and the bigger racquet will make the difference.
Let the fun begin…
MONDAY WIMBLEDON SCHEDULE
CENTRE COURT – 1:00PM
1. Andy Murray (GBR) [3] v David Goffin (BEL)
2. Paula Kania (POL) v Na Li (CHN) [2]
3. Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] v Andrey Golubev (KAZ)
NO.1 COURT – 1:00PM
1. Victoria Azarenka (BLR) [8] v Mirjana Lucic-Baroni (CRO)
2. Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) [11] v Ryan Harrison (USA)
3. Jurgen Melzer (AUT) v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) [14]
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