Montreal Preview: Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray And Rafael Nadal Headline The Roger-Less Cup
by Sean Randall | August 7th, 2015, 9:51 pm
  • 88 Comments

It seems strange, but the U.S. summer hardcourt season just isn’t what it use to be. Years ago, Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi, Andy Roddick and even guys like Patrick Rafter and Yevgeny Kafelnikov would play several events leading up to the US Open. These days, for most of the top guys it’s one event (Roger Federer), likely two (Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal) and sometimes if we are lucky three (Andy Murray).

But no longer do we see them playing several events like they do before the French. I guess it’s better than nothing.

So finally we have a big time draw for a big time tournament as the Canadian Open in Montreal begins next week.

First quarter: Novak Djokovic, Tomas Berdych
Leading the way is of course world No. 1 Djokovic. The Serb has a pretty good draw with Jack Sock, the struggling/ailing/cheating Grigor Dimitrov and then maybe Tomas Berdych. Novak’s had a month off since his third Wimbledon crown. He’s rested, he’s ready and I just don’t think anyone is going to stop him. That said, someone like Berdych could, but I’m not picking that upset. Berdych could also run into Kevin Anderson in that section. We haven’t seen those two frequent combatants play at all this year!
The pick: Djokovic

Second quarter: Stan Wawrinka, Milos Raonic
For some reason I’m buying into Stan Wawrinka right now. When that happens he usually loses, so punters take note. And he’s got a very tough draw with the Nick Kyrgios-Fernando Verdasco winner as his first hardcourt match in months. Then possibly John Isner (who might pull out if he wins Washington), and likely Richard Gasquet in the quarters. Canadian king Milos Raonic is in there but I don’t think he’s match ready after that injury layoff. So is it Stan? Well, I think maybe he gets bounced in the second round – especially if the courts are quick – and that will leave someone like Gasquet getting through.
The pick: Gasquet (I must be nutz)

Third quarter: Rafael Nadal, Kei Nishikori
One of the big stories of the week will be Rafael Nadal. He won on clay in Hamburg – great – and I’m sure he’s feeling good about where his head is at. But now we are hardcourts. Now we are playing with the big names. It’s also on the surface he and those damn knees dread. But I like his draw with Sergiy Stakhovsky and then Viktor Troicki or Gilles Simon, with a run-in against Kei Nishikori in the quarters. If Nishikori loses Saturday in D.C. in his US Open rematch with Marin Cilic, I think Rafa can sneak through. Otherwise, I like Nishikori.
The pick: Rafael Nadal

Fourth quarter: Andy Murray, Marin Cilic
It was a rough start for Andy Murray this week in Washington, losing to Gabashvili. I don’t think he’ll have a relapse in Montreal against either Feliciano Lopez or Tommy Robredo, though both are of higher quality than the Russian. But there are a lot of obstacles. In what is arguably the tougher quarter, we have defending champion JW Tsonga who plays the phenom Borna Coric, and also Cilic, plus we have maybe the match of the first round with Gael Monfils against Fabio Fognini. Yikes! If the courts are quick that could hurt Murray and help someone like Cilic who seems to be finding his groove again. So for me, it’s the Croat!
The pick: Cilic (I must be totally nutz)

So in my semifinals I have:
Djokovic d. Gasquet and Cilic over Nadal.

And I’ll take Djokovic to win the title.

Really? Cilic? What the hell!

Honestly, since it’s the first big hardcourt event since Miami, we could see more than a few surprises. Heck, even Djokovic could lose somewhere like to Sock or Berdych. Remember last year Novak lost to Tsonga in Canada and then Robredo in Cincinnati!

I like Stan but that draw is tricky. Nishikori’s a big question mark if he wins Washington. The same for Isner. Nadal doesn’t engender a lot of confidence right now, especially if the courts are quick.

And Murray is the second favorite but I just can’t shake that Wimbledon semifinal loss to Federer and then that Washington result. Maybe slower surfaces are more his style since getting married?

Meanwhile, a guy like Cilic is fit enough to do well regardless of Washington. So I’ll lean his way and likely regret it by Thursday.

That said, I’m really most interested in seeing Rafa. Can he win matches and can he win them easily – without dropping serve with the match on his racquet. That’s what I’m most looking forward to.



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88 Comments for Montreal Preview: Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray And Rafael Nadal Headline The Roger-Less Cup

Markus Says:

Re: the pick: Gasquet (I must be nutz).

Let’s just say that after so many failed predictions, Sean has finally blown a gasket!


the DA Says:

“Maybe slower surfaces are more his style since getting married?”

Top notch analysis as usual Tennis-x

;P


Gypsy Gal Says:

Cheating Grigor Dimitrov?….


Margot Says:

Bit nervous about how well Andy’s gonna do. He’s such a sensitive flower. ;) Would probably much prefer to be back home with Kim looking adoringly at scan pics!
@jalep
“True Detective 1 and 2” is HBO. Totally brill.
Am watching “Witnesses” but not nearly as good as “Spiral.”
Back to the tennis…..Goooo Andy!


Jock-KatH Says:

@GG
I think Sean is referring to Grigor’s supposed cheating re. Maria.


Jock-KatH Says:

Margot – “Nervous” is the name of the game when it comes to Andy!!!!


Armend Says:

Great analysis. Agree with you on Cilic. He may be winning D.C. this week, you’re not as nutz as you may think :) . Also expect him to get extra motivated to defend the US Open title, which he will most definitely not.


Markus Says:

I’ll pick Isner to win. His game is nothing but serves but that’s all he needs. Serve, serve, serve…take it to a tiebreaker… then serve, serve, serve…win. The end. Boring. Any match that trebuchet plays automatically becomes the most boring match of the day.


Markus Says:

Oops, wrong thread!


jalep Says:

lol, Markus. You hater ;)

Another one I’ll have to see on Netflix then, Margot! I pay too much money to watch my niche sport cycling to afford Direct tv HBO package, which would be a waste because I’d get a bunch of other stuff in the package that’s cr@p or as you say, rubbish. It’s the pits.


Daniel Says:

Isner is winning easy, having breaks on sets and so far cruise to his draw. Steve Johnson could pose some test but I think he’!! Be in the final.

Slight edge to Cilic due to his serve agaisnt Kei. A lot will depend if Kei is having a good retunr day and Cilic a poor serving day.

As for Montreal, I think this time big guys won’t ve upset early. Can’t see Djoko losing before semis, not to Grigor or Berdych, who also didn’t play in a long time.


jalep Says:

Sean is Nutz and his jinx’s are on.

Some early round dark horses coming through qualies maybe. Unfortunately, kid Zverev isn’t among them but Heong Chang and Thanasi Kokkinakis are, as well as Dolgopolov.

Ernests Gulbis hasn’t given up tennis. I see he’s in qualifiers – good luck Ernests.


jalep Says:

+1 Daniel to your analysis. But go Kei!


jalep Says:

Good grief, sorry. Name misspelled. It’s Hyeong Chung – no disrespect meant. Good luck to Young, Hyeong, gun!


Markus Says:

Gasquet does not need the Sean jinx. He does it on his own.


Margot Says:

@jalep
There’s free internet access at something called “www.watchtv” don’t know if you can access it. You could try a google. TX wouldn’t allow me to post the link, unless its been modded and will come up later.
Meanwhile, GO Kei! At last a match that is OK time in UK.


jane Says:

cilic and gasquet? interesting choices…

i was thinking about gulbis the other day – he really is the dud in the threesome that came up together – delpo, cilic and gulbis – given the other 2 have won a slam and thus lived up to some of the hype at least.

more than we can say for the next trio – milos, kei, grigor – so far anyhow…


sienna Says:

without Federer mastertournement is missing its soul.
He still is the most dominant player in draws.

Cilic is picking up pace….


calmdownplease Says:

‘without Federer mastertournament is missing it’s over-invested in cash cow.
He is still the most fawned after and coddled player in the draws, like EVER.

Cillic should be thankful for his fluke….’

There sienna, I corrected that post for you
And no charge either!

;-)


chris ford1 Says:

Dominic Thiem might have a breakout tournament in Canada – as in do well enough to get the attention of the tennis world. That would mean getting past a qualie, Anderson and Berdych to set up a quarter final with him and Djokovic. Beating Nole would be a miracle thing…but a close contest there and beating Berdych? You may be looking at the 1st “young gun” to pan out since Raonic, and maybe more upside than Raonic.
Thiem is hot. Up to #21 Ranking after winning his last two tournaments, beating Feliciano Lopez, David Goffin, and Monfils in the process.


sienna Says:

without Federer tennis will enter darkages.
Cdp.
I warned you aan few weeks ago. Ik wil get midevil on your a.se if you dont cut that BS of yours.


jane Says:

cilic may be “picking up pace” but he’s also two points from getting bageled!


Jock-KatH Says:

Kokkinakis out of Montreal


jane Says:

and kei breaks to start the third. i have no idea why cilic plays so far back, especially when he’s been winning most of the net points he actually plays (unlike kei)


FedExpress Says:

cilic totally gone


FedExpress Says:

cilic channeling his inner cilic


FedExpress Says:

kei faking an injury just like nole and after that playing sublime


jane Says:

lol… he’s definitely playing well right now. the crosscourt forehands are diamonds.


jane Says:

cilic helping with boatloads of errors.


Markus Says:

How often does a player who fakes, err I mean takes an injury time out end up winning the match?


jane Says:

yes, rafa, novak, and andy are all such fakers when they take their MTOs. damn them! it must be why they win so much, and for sure why kei’s winning now too.

gosh.

or maybe his shoulder was actually bothering him and the adjustment helped?

now there’s a novel idea. ;-)


jalep Says:

Qualies:
KatH–
Kokkinakis was ousted by 24 yr.old Pierre-Hugues Herbert (Fr), who can play some beautiful tennis. By the score, it looked like a real battle the last 2 sets.

@jane–
Gulbis won his 1st round qualie but yes, definitely the disappointed of the class of ’88.

Hyeong Chung decimated his opponent quickly, 62 61. Not familiar with the opponent.


jalep Says:

Oh no. I see it’s time to change the channel…


Okiegal Says:

@Markus……You better get on the right thread…..the thread police is always lurking
about!! Joking, of course!

Rogers cup and Cincy should be interesting
tournaments. I’m anxious to see how Cilic will
fair in defending his 2014 win. The tune-ups should tell a tale??? We shall see…


Gypsy Gal Says:

Come on Kei….


Gypsy Gal Says:

YAY Nice one Kei,love the guy….


Margot Says:

Well done Kei. Marin dominated first set, then inexplicably lost it. When Marin broke back in the third, I thought Kei was done and dusted, but no! Excellent.


Markus Says:

I just hate medical time outs. It’s so open to abuse. Take one if you get tired. Take one if you get nervous. Take one if you’re really injured. How can anyone tell the difference? Just get rid of it!


jalep Says:

See… when I changed the channel, he won. Every time I checked, he was losing. Have to watch the match later.

Yay Kei!!


Jock-KatH Says:

Kei may now be no. 4 over Stan (I confess I like Stan better but certainly also like Kei – what’s not to like?).


Sidney Says:

MTOs are there for a reason. Those who don’t like it probably have never picked up a racquet or played any other physically demanding sport.

Tennis is a one player sport, there are no bench players to substitute, unlike basketball or football which have multiple players playing at at the same time and many more reserves on the bench.

If anything, MTOs are a reminder that in the heat of battle, players are still human and their bodies have limitations.


Markus Says:

Is there any other individual sport that uses medical time outs? Golf? No. Swimming? No. Wrestling? Boxing? Gymnastics? Heck, even figure skating does not allow for MTOs. If you let injured, tough luck. MTOs are so abused by tennis players. They feel a little twitch and thet go crying for a massage. That’s all they get, a time break and a soothing massage. If they are really injured, they need a better exam, with x-rays and other diagnostic tests. How often do we see players move like a gazelle after a MTO? What kind of an injury is that? And those who get really injured and still manage to win, they almost always end up defaulting their next match or not play at their fullest capacity. By the way, I play tennis and golf, not a pro but I do. I swam competitively in college. I never called for a medical time out.


Daniel Says:

Agree Markus.

Getting hurt is bad luck or results of how you play. I understand the reasoning of MTO but agree that is too much of grey area for us to know for sure when the players are really hurt.

To me it should not exist. Because as you said the chance of a player that is able to win a match due to MTO withdrawing later is high.


Margot Says:

Hmm. You guys are beginning to win me round with this no MTO arguement. It cerainly seems to disrupt the opponent’s play……..


jane Says:

but margot, andy had one versus seppi at wimbledon, versus tsonga at davis cup, etc… what if he were badly hurt. sometimes they take a tumble diving for a ball or whatever and in turn put their shoulder or hip or whatever out. if they take a minute to snap it back in and play better as a result, why or how could that possibly be a bad thing?

they are visited by trainers/doctors on court, who sometimes check their pulse, temperature, etc. and/or work on a sore joint. these are professionals. if a player were clearly not hurt or ill they would know. hence, if it were being repeatedly abused, the ATP or whichever governing body could check with the trainers/docs to see what they think.

whatever happens, i think it should go through a proper voting process before it’s abandoned.

and please note that this wouldnt stop players running off to the washroom at various points in a match either. they could be “Faking’ that they need to go. we know fed once said he went for the sun to move. andy said that during the us open final before the 5th set he went to talk to himself in the mirror. i am sure novak said the same during the wimbledon 2014 final.

so there you go… MTO “abuse” may just become bathroom break “abuse”.

personally, i don’t care. it’s not like these breaks happen loads and if they happen in a gruelling 5 setter or towards the end of a tournament, when players who’ve made it that far are clearly worse for wear, then so be it. to me, that’s no biggie.


Gypsy Gal Says:

Agree with Jane….


Margot Says:

@jane
But just because I support Andy doesn’t mean I blindly support Andy.
And, I seem to remember, he was having those MTOs because of his back. Perhaps, if he hadn’t been allowed MTOs he would’ve been forced to have the op. a lot sooner, which I think would’ve been much better in the long run. At the end he was playing on major pain killers.
I know, hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Bathroom breaks are different. Of course you must allow them. The alternative is unthinkable, lol.


Okiegal Says:

I guess the main issue is if it’s legit or not?? That is impossible to know for sure. If something truly has happened to a player and a quick massage or a pill or whatever will fix it…… then they are able to go play and finish the match. Isn’t that the best case scenario? I mean you have a crowd of spectators who have paid good money for expensive tickets…..they want to see it. I think an MTO is OK…… but we would hope the integrity of the players would do what is right. We all know a few of the players have admitted to taking advantage of this rule, but don’t see the need to punish other players who are honest and sincere.


danica Says:

I am sorry, but how can anyone compare golf and tennis?! How can anyone compare tennis and figure skating (3 minutes program), tennis and swimming/track and field/whatever…? The whole point of boxing is to beat up and disfigure your opponent. A race lasts only so long. Tennis match can last hours, 6 maybe? A sudden discomfort can be dealt with rewrapping of bandages or cooling spray or just taking a pain relievers… Besides, all of the players say that they play with discomforts constantly. There is always something that bothers them, be it a blister or a strain… If one of such issues flares up during a match I don’t see why a player should need to suffer. MTOs are there for a reason and rest assured, they are put in place are careful consideration.

I agree with both Sidney and Jane.


danica Says:

*after careful consideration


Jock-KatH Says:

Yes, agree, Danica.
The “sticking plaster” helps to avoid abandoning the match.


sienna Says:

Big draw/Big tournement…. Without the big man himself this tournement lacks heart and soul. Roger needs to keep playing as long as needed to keep tennis at current level.

the other elite players are not doing their job for various reasons. Roger is a beam of bright light and missed when not around.


Margot Says:

Is it such a good idea to play “through” pain anyway? Pain exists as an early warning system for your body. Pain screams, “Stop this now or else!”
And players can in fact take “pain killers” to ward off those temporary aches and pains all athletes get. Even me lol!
And, as Daniel pointed out, players frequently withdraw/lose next round anyway.
Kei is a player who gets injury after injury. You’ve got to wonder a) what long term damage he’s doing to his body and b) if he’s in the wrong sport.
Meanwhile, huge congratulations to Cooke, Broad, Roote and all. Simply magnificent!


jane Says:

danica, excellent points at 2:38; all “individual” sports are not created equally – at all!!

margot, i am not suggesting we support our faves blindly, and hence i threw novak in there too as i know people think he’s guilty of faking or whatever.

but what you say about andy’s back doesn’t apply to the most recent MTOs at wimbledon and davis cup.

and speaking more generally, it doesn’t apply to MTOs wherein the pain is immediate. as mentioned, a player might cramp OR even worse a player can tweak something or even throw out a joint – especially diving / slipping on grass – in which case they *need* to get that joint back into place asap. that’s not abuse. that’s a genuine medical consideration. or what about heat stroke? are we not to allow doctors on court, or players to take an MTO if they are near to passing out? we’ve seen it happen – at the AO in particular.

then, how is it different if players “fake” needing to go to the washroom when really they want to delay for the conditions to change, or to give themselves a pep talk, or to fix the shorts they put on backwards? is that abuse?

rules are rules, but humans are humans, and we vary widely and our needs vary too. some accommodation for the fact that these aren’t robots playing (in part for our enjoyment) is not a bad thing imo.

at the least, there needs to be considerable debate on the issue. as with any rule / policy adjustments.

it is a good discussion to have; i do think there is merit to revisiting most policies – and in most trades of work too.


chris ford1 Says:

I go with Sidney, MTOs are needed. And remember they exist mainly for the fans. It would be very disappointing to them if a large number more of matches that have to be forfeited. Because the player has a condition or simple injury, and will leave the match if they don’t get treatment on court.
And some injuries are easily treatable. Allowing the game to go on. Just like in other sports.

And why players will not abandon MTOs – (1)Because they want to finish a match and make money and not disappoint fans. (2) The players know that “toughing it out” playing with an ankle sprain, a blister could make injury worse. And all players fear something is wrong..but they aren’t a medic or a physio…and they play on when they shouldn’t have and risk career.


Margot Says:

So chris is saying it’s all about money?
Lol jane, perhaps allowing substitutes is the answer……..;)
I think tennis needs a shake up in all sorts of ways TBH. eg I mean some of those extreme temperatures they play in are simply ridiculous. Also perhaps this doubles rule at deuce could be introduced and shorten matches. Also bloody “let” rule should be abolished. The ball is either in or its not. And if a player learns to skim the net while his/her opponent watches the ball trickle down the net, so be it. it would be great fun! One serve only? Now being agent provocateur, I know.


sienna Says:

tennis does need a shake up. because the day Roger decides to stop then everything will deflate. Current topplayers just dont got what it takes to lead tennis.


Sidney Says:

The way I see it, some people don’t like MTOs due to perception that players fake it. I think that perception is the main argument against MTOs. And it is a weak one.

It is just perception. It doesn’t mean it’s true. And if the opponent lets that perception get to him/her, well then.

As a non pro avid tennis player for leisure and health, whenever I see a player call for an MTO, I don’t immediately look for signs that he or she is faking it. My immediate thought is I hope it isn’t serious.

The cynical outlook has its supporters in the media, because it creates drama to draw in more people. Fine. That’s their line of work.


Okiegal Says:

I want to think that all of the MTOs are warranted….but in all reality we have to know that some are not……and shame on them! Lately I saw a match where a player took an MTO and then a game or so later his opponent did. The commentators made comments about it. The second player did not think the first MTO was legit and so he retaliated…..shame on both of them! But who can say whether or not it was indeed a real physical issue. I want the MTO legit or not because I want to see the match…..My 2¢…….


Jock-KatH Says:

Sounds like Seppi and then Andy, Okiegal. They grinned at each other at the net. It’s a bit of monkey see, monkey do. I can remember saying to myself “Oh Andy don’t”! I know I’m wrong, but I’m quite sanguine about it now. According to Andy, he did have a bit of a sore shoulder – but normally I would doubt he’d bother going for a wee bit of medical comfort.


Mary Says:

Players are human. MTOs and bathroom breaks are not unreasonable. So what if a few abuse them?
Every rule, every benefit, every system is misused or abused by somebody somewhere. But that does not mean there should be no rules/benefits/facilities/systems (throw the baby out with the bathwater?). Abolish housing, family, jobs, tax, pensions, salaries, documents, IDs, books, computers, lawyers, doctors, engineers,transportation, weapons, politicians, government…. abolish all rules, all systems… so there will be nothing to abuse, misuse or subvert.


Jock-KatH Says:

Ah Mary

There’s a few of those I’d like to subvert – and I’m going to the Omsbudsman soonest…..LOL


Jock-KatH Says:

Don’t worri Sienna – Nole is already leading tennis very well indeed – different style maybe – but you can’t have everything…..


Jock-KatH Says:

Margot @ 2.27am

Toilet Alert?
Portacabins?


courbon Says:

…and the moment Sienna stops writing, stupidity will disappear from this blog…


Mary Says:

Yes, Djokovic is as dominant as Federer was in his heyday. He doesn’t have to learn anything from anyone as to how to lead the tour.


jalep Says:

This one is for GG

https://twitter.com/OpenCourt

I hope his calf is will be okay.


jalep Says:

^^ Oops. That link was supposed to lead to Fabs practicing in Montreal specifically. It’s the blog, but Fabio is pictured there :D

Lousia Chirico was knocked out of qualies today :/


Gypsy Gal Says:

Jalep thanks….;)….


Gypsy Gal Says:

Hi Courbon nice to see you here….;)….


jalep Says:

GG, sure wish I had that Stephanie Myles’ job: hanging around tournament practice courts taking pictures – full time!


Gypsy Gal Says:

^LOL Yeah^….


courbon Says:

Hi GG, I’m too sick to write tonight-speak to you soon


Mary Says:

courbon, you are too optimistic thinking it is only Sienna who makes such posts. Anyway, I do not want Sienna to stop posting. She loves tennis though regrettably she makes some bad posts.


Gypsy Gal Says:

Courbon shame sorry to here that,get well soon my dear :(….


Okiegal Says:

@KatH……You know, I really couldn’t remember who it was when I posted that comment. I was racking my brain and went blank. Yes, you are right. Those were the two!! Thanks……My 2008 mini stroke did a number on my short term memory!! :(


Michael Says:

I cannot think beyond Novak. He is the sure favourite for the title. May be, with a little bit of luck, he will win Cincinnati too and thus accomplish the extraordinary of recording a comprehensive collection of Master series titles !!


Jock-KatH Says:

No harm to Novak, Michael, but I hope your hopes for him winning everything meets with strong resistance.


Jock-KatH Says:

Gosh Okiegal – a Mini-stroke!!! Not nice. Oh my, so sorri. Keep getting better – that’s an order.


Gypsy Gal Says:

Michael sorry have to agree with KatH,nothing against Novak but it would actually be nice to see some others players winning something now,not all of us are fans of the same player….


Okiegal Says:

@Jock-KatH……Thanks for the encouragement! I have A-fib, so that triggered the episode. I now take Coumadin to thin my blood. The worse thing about that med is having to have my blood drawn quite often….but so far so good!!


Georgy Gal Says:

okie, good thing you are not Troicki


Jock-KatH Says:

Ah yes Okiegal – I know second-hand how you feele – my hubbie is in remission from non-hodgkinson and needs constant blood drawing and medication….

Ah well – moving on.

sportingnews.com/sport/story/2015-08-10/serena-williams

This is Serena modelling for a New York sporting mag. SHE IS ABSOLUTELY STUNNING. WOW AND WOW.


Daniel Says:

Thanks Jalep,

Read that his elbow injury is not fully healedso I think he will skip Cincy and most lit not play USO as well.

This is good news for Nadal
Bevause he virtually guarantee #8 sees of Ferrer doesn’t play. And even so Ferrer will lose points for not playng both Masters so it’s inevitable now.

I am curious to see of Kei will maintan his #4 rank for USO. Becuase neither Djoko, Fed or Murray will want to draw Wawa in their Quarters.


Jock-KatH Says:

Agree Daniel – but with reservations: Both Kei and Stan when ON are equally dangerous. Would love to see a Stan v Kei match when both are playing at their top-notch best.


Gypsy Gal Says:

Kei beat Stan at last years USO i believe after coming from two sets down,then he beat Novak,before losing to whats his name in the final in straight sets,some of the best tennis ive seen him play,the final was one match too many though,and he was too spent to make any sort of impression unfortunatly….


Jock-KatH Says:

Thanks GG – didn’t see it – assume both were at their best. Kei eventually lost to Cilic.

Top story: Pro Tennis Suspension Extends Until August