What Do Federer, Serena Cincy Titles Mean for US Open?

You mean sister Venus. Not Serena.

August 17th, 2014 at 10:44 pm

It is 80th career title for Roger and when this man steps on Court he is bound to eclipse piled up records, sometimes even his very own. One is just at loss of words to describe the phenomenal feats of this man as a sportsperson – Simply incredible !!! And about this particular final, Roger was in a sense desperate (forgive me when I use that word here which is a bit harsh one to be used for a 17 time Grand slam Champion) to win this title just because he has lost four finals and has not won a Master Series title for well over two years. So, a once habitual winner was losing often (judged by his lofty standards) much to his discomfiture. And so he was playing this final against Ferrer with whom he has a 15-0 H2H advantage thereby giving him the confidence that he can count on this one. But, sometimes conceivably overconfidence would lead you to complacency and you might falter when you think you are already done with it. Roger was also on a tipping point as to how he is going to handle the pressure as a loss here would invite censure and ridicule from his ebullient critics who always would like to concentrate on his grey areas and there were already mumblings about him being a choker. It is hard to digest it, but Roger indeed was mocked in that disgraceful fashion by his critiques who show him no mercy when he is perceived to be on the wrong side. So, Roger had a tremendous baggage in this match to shed with and that be became successful only goes to prove that his Championship credentials are still undiminished and he can rise to the occasion when needed. Despite a hiccup in the second set when he got rolled over by Ferrer, Roger used his versatile game to win this match over a machine like one dimensional Ferrer. And so he came and conquered his 80th title, a very very important one in his career.

August 18th, 2014 at 12:26 am

And about Ferrer, what Roger said in the Presentation ceremony is all there to credit him with and he truly deserves it. Despite his lop sided H2H against Roger, Ferrer was playing his heart out and it seemed that he atlast had found a way to beat Roger for once. Even the first set was a pretty close one save that for one break while Ferrer just rolled over the second set when Roger’s serve was not finding the lines and he dictated play from the back of the court partly due to his own abilities and partly due to Roger’s shanking. Ferrer just refused to give up and gave all that he can despite his shortcomings against top players when the limitations in his play gets exposed due to the variety exhibited at the other end. Whatever said and done, this man despite his defeats, just refuses to give up and fights on and thereby is a cult and inspiration for an aspirational young player who wants to make it to the big stage. One can feel sorry for Ferrer that he has made so many Master series final and won just one, but none can accuse him of not trying. It is to his credit that he is still in the top 10 at 32 and also going strong just emulating Roger in a way. Infact, he is playing even better as a veteran than when he was a young player. He is a true example to follow who has steadfastly adhered to the dictum – “Never ever give up”.

August 18th, 2014 at 12:37 am

Who had doubts that Federer would beat Ferrer for the sixteenth time?. lol!

Nobody beats Vitas Gerulaitis 17 times in a row.”
soon be in the past!

August 18th, 2014 at 12:40 am

Michael,
Great post. Can’t believe it all, is Fed really back and competing for titles and winning them in the falsely claimed “strong era”? All his top competitors in their “prime”?
—
@Staff
Great write up as usual. Don’t pay attention to the minimal negative critique. You guys overall do a great job.
—
Fed in 5 finals this year @ 33? WOW.
Keep it goin Maestro!
—
Serena actually givin props to her opponet?
Love Serena’s game, never cared for her interviews. But this was cool, she gave her opponet due credit amd loving respect. As for Ana, her post on court interview won me over. Cute, sweet,
and really stole imo the post tourney presentation in fine fashion.

August 18th, 2014 at 12:49 am

Well it is imprudent to extrapolate this win of Roger to the US Open and say that he is the overwhelming favourite. But, this win ofcourse has given him the confidence that he is once again in his winning ways and that means a lot as Tennis is more a mental sport. Nevertheless, five set matches are entirely different kettle of fish than three setters and what matters there is stamina and consistency and it remains to be seen if Roger can deliver on that at a hard court tournament ? Some might call me naive to doubt the ability of a man who has just made a Wimbledon final and a Leader in winning majors. But, the reality is Roger is aging and his incredible run at Montreal and Cincinnati would have already taken a toll out of him. So, I am just keeping my fingers crossed about Roger’s performance at the US Open ? Whatever it is, you can be assured that he will give his best shot.

August 18th, 2014 at 12:51 am

Sean, can we have that thread “Who is going to finish year as #2, Rafa or Roger” back? This time just add Nole, the way Roger is going he might finish the year as #1.

August 18th, 2014 at 12:53 am

Even If Nadal plays and Djokovic reaches to his usual form, none of them are going to win to USO this time. I repeat neither Nadal nor Novak will clinch USO trophy this year. It’ll leave Federer doing great in US open. Djokovic will falter in quarter or end up loosing another final after wimbledon victory. If Nadal plays he’ll be ousted by 4th round as his form, uncertainty over wrist is gonna hurt him, I think Murray will finally get his groove in USO. I reckon him as semifinalist, if he reaches that far, he’s a great chance of lifting USO this time even if he faces Federer in the final. And, any of Tsonga, Ferrer, Berdych, Dimitrov even Stan might have a good US Open time but that doesn’t make them title contender let alone being potential winner. This time, you’ll have to see what most of u don’t want to believe, a certain 33 year old guy winning US open title. So, take a deep breath and wait for that to happen. O! Also stop placing other guys above him.

August 18th, 2014 at 12:55 am

Skeezer,

Thanks !! It is great to see Roger discover his winning ways and his Master series title which has come after more than a two year gap means so much to him. He was delighted at this win as naturally he should be which has come after so much tribulations even losing the Wimbledon title by a whisker to an tenacious Novak. He also lost to Wawarinka at Montecarlo and Tsonga at Montreal. That he shrugged off those disappointments to win this one is really out of the world and this win gains more credence due to the fact that it came after a hard loss at Montreal and it only goes to show as to how much of a fighter Roger truly is.

As regards strong era and weak era, I do not believe in such theories at all which is just a perception and is not black and white.

August 18th, 2014 at 1:03 am

tennis lover, you are a spammer.
you only repeat the bs astrology.

August 18th, 2014 at 1:05 am

Wog Boy,

Roger is more than 5,000 points behind the leader and that is just too much ground to cover. I do not honestly believe that Roger can become No.1 this year.

August 18th, 2014 at 1:05 am

@wog boy and jane too….
Whats your take on Nole this year? Wouod like tennis x write uo on him. I was thinkin it is mostly mental ( marriage, etc ), a new dynamic in his life. He seems fit and all. Wonder what his fans think….
Imo when it comes h2h he still is the best matchup against Rafa….
And as far as USO goes, yeah, Fed is playing great, but, the other 3 are in their prime years, they can play much better, and my take is they will.

August 18th, 2014 at 1:09 am

Roger is what 13-4 against this supposedly strong era top 10 players… Its not bad.. Is it ?
It kind of shows the brilliance of roger and how he can handle the competition even at 33( he is already past his prime). He is making finals after finals. Already defeated prime nole and Murray 2 times and came very close to beat nole in wimby finals.
Haters may belittle his achivements all they want but no one can take away the fact that he is one of the best player ever and we may not see such champion again.
Can any of you guys seriously imagine tennis without roger and Rafa ?
Just think for a minute. These two players has given us fans so many joys and laughter. Be it rafa’s 9 french open title or roger’s 7 wimby or 5 uso.. These record will stand the test of time .
I fear when one day Rafa reach his 30’s and start to lose then and now then these same folks will start belittling his achievemnts by making weak clay era theories and such. Oh wait.. I have seen such talks in various forums already.
Kind of shows the lack of unity among tennis fans. We just cant appreciate those who are not our idol.

Anyway.. Congrats roger. I am very very happy for you… It’s about time :)

August 18th, 2014 at 1:20 am

@Michael, what matters for finishing the year as #1 is this year results, I know you know that, and Roger is quite close. If he wins USO, he will finish year as #1, mark my words:

1. N. Djokovic(SRB) 7,430
2 R. Nadal(ESP) 6,645
3. R. Federer(SUI) 6,160

August 18th, 2014 at 1:30 am

skeezer,
I said before, I am quite happy with what Novak won so far and if he doesn’t win anything until the end of the year I will still consider this year as very good year, winning three master an GS, by beating twice Nadal and twice Federer, I am happy man.

I am sure Nole doesn’t have any physical issuses, but his mind is not there and when his mind is not there he doesn’t produce his best tennis, he struggles (Monfils, Simon, Robredo) with a players that have no bussines (to use Sean’s line) of beating him. If you put together winning Wimbledon, getting married, waiting for his first child, literary any day in the next month or so you will understand why his mind is not 100% on tennis. That is just him, the way he is, they are all different and go through these things differently, Federer does it his way etc.
By saying all of this, I do expect these two loses had shaken him properly and that he will try to push hard for USO and before birth of his child, after that I don’t expect anything big until AO 2015.
The reason I like him is because he is who he is, that is why I liked Safin and few others, I was never attracted to perfect people.
I wouldn’t recomend Nole to people with heart conditions.
Sorry for spelling and grammar mistakes, this post is too long for me.

August 18th, 2014 at 1:56 am

Wog Boy,

I think you mean the race to London where Roger is running close considering his stupendous performance this year ? You know that the race to London has its own ranking system irrespective of ATP rankings. Nevertheless, the year end No.1 is only decided by the ATP points table. As per ATP rankings, Roger at 6,670 under his belt is well behind Novak Djokovic, 12860 and Rafa at 11670. That is difficult to catch up unless both falters very badly, which I believe will not be the case.

August 18th, 2014 at 2:02 am

wow, wog boy; can i just say “ditto”?

you’re post is perfect. i agree with all and feel the same about this year and nole generally. skeezer, i really don’t have much to add to what wog boy said. i think nole probably had a wee letdown after wimbledon and the wedding; like wog, i hope that he was shook up by the last 2 losses and pulls it together for a decent run at the last slam of the year.

and btw, congrats again to fed and fans. he’s quite the fighter… still.

August 18th, 2014 at 2:07 am

*your not you’re, oops!

August 18th, 2014 at 2:08 am

I agree with Wog Boy that Novak would have been all fired up for the US Open considering the string of losses he suffered ignominously at Montreal and Cincinnati. These losses would have re-ignited the spark in him and he would be right on his feet to reverse this downfall. So, in all probability we might see an refurbished Novak at the US Open who is heavily charged up and waiting to seize the moment. It is obvious that familial issues have distracted him from his goals at the moment and he may have to step that aside if he aspires to refurbish his credentials.

August 18th, 2014 at 2:09 am

Michael,

Yes, I mean Race to London, but isn’t it also race to year end #1? Last year points don’t count for year end #1.

August 18th, 2014 at 2:11 am

What would be the big deal if nole were not to win us open. Gimme a break he already had the champions luck at wimby and he had his chance in paris. Nole is quite overdue to lose vs fed a big one again..and i believe with the baby on its way he ll take it as a man if it happens so…excited for the us open by the way..lets wait and see what rafa does..

August 18th, 2014 at 4:02 am

My Probable Scenarios for Federer

USO Paris WTF TOTAL
1.2000 1000 1500 3500[BEST CASE]

2.1200 1000 1500 3200

3.1200 600 1300 3100

4.720 1000 1000 2720[MODERATE]

5.720 600 1300 2620

6.360 360 800 1520

7.360 360 400 1120[WORST]

I haven’t included Shangai & Basel where he is sure to get atleast 500pts..

Realistically Federer might gain about 1500-2000 Points,which in itself a great achievement!!

August 18th, 2014 at 4:23 am

Just reading fed was cheering Ferrer’s unforced errors.

August 18th, 2014 at 4:23 am

My Plausible Scenarios for Federer

USO Paris WTF TOTAL
1.2000 1000 1500 3500[BEST CASE]

2.1200 1000 1500 3200

3.1200 600 1300 3100

4.720 1000 1000 2720[MODERATE]

5.720 600 1300 2620

6.360 360 800 1520

7.360 360 400 1120[WORST]

I haven’t included Shangai & Basel where he is sure to get atleast 500pts..

Realistically Federer might gain about 1500-2000 Points,which in itself a great achievement!!

August 18th, 2014 at 4:28 am

I believe Roger can finish the year as number 1 if he continues to play in current form. In race to London he’s circa 1200 points behind Nole and he can catch up. Even if he doesnt the sole possibility of him getting a number 1 spot at this age in the golden era of tennis ,when all top 10 players are younger than him is truly remarkable.

August 18th, 2014 at 5:22 am

Tennis Lover(with a space),i think we all get the picture,just wondering how many more times are you gonna repeat the same post?

August 18th, 2014 at 6:27 am

I repost a post from “IVO” on Tennis.com. It shows not only what a great player Federer is, but also how competitive an era he has played in:

“This is one interesting stat that shows how good of a year it’s been for Fed>

he has by now won 12 matches against Top-10. In 2005 (one of his top years), 2009 he won 15 times against top ten. It’s fairly likely that he will reach this number this year, if not exceed it.

And since we’re talking about wins against top-10.Look at this chart (total number of wins over top-10:

1. Roger Federer 177

2. Rafael Nadal 129

3. Pete Sampras 124

4. Boris Becker 121

5. / Ivan Lendl 119

6. Novak Djokovic 116

7. Andre Agassi 109

8. Stefan Edberg 96

9. John McEnroe 85

Jimmy Connors 85

That he has twice as many wins over Connors (who otherwises is one of the people to dominate a lot of stats) tell you something about eras, and what kind of players these guys played as opposed to players like Fed, nadal, Djok etc.
This is my little tribute to Fed’s victory in Cincy. Well done!”

August 18th, 2014 at 6:30 am

Congratulations to Roger and all his fans.

David is really little engine. Oh man after good performance on second set, I thought he could roll, but unfortunately he didn’t and he couldn’t. Maybe, that’s how Roger rules, this world .Maestro. 😍😉

August 18th, 2014 at 8:31 am

Doesn’t ATP points count for year end No.1 ? Can anybody clarify on this ??

August 18th, 2014 at 8:37 am

if federer fans can’t work out that federer’s recent hard court success is proportional to the fact that nadal isn’t playing and murray is still coming back to form from back surgery, and djoker has had a strange dip in form, not to mention that delpo is gone, what can i say…

this momentary lull in competition during the season doesn’t somehow prove this is not a strong era.

the form of murray and djoker right now is out of the ordinary for this time of year. that’s obvious to anyone who’s been following tennis seriously for even a handful of years.

federer is playing well. but only having to play one big4 player to make two masters finals is lucky.

August 18th, 2014 at 8:54 am

Michael,

http://m.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

^points accumulated this year by the players. The player who will be on top of that list after the end of this season will finish the season/year as no. 1.

Mathematically, federer has a good chance of finishing the year as #1 if he continues his great run which is unlikely though

August 18th, 2014 at 9:05 am

Rafa has alot of points to defend,so one would think the number 2 ranking is not out of the question for Roger….

August 18th, 2014 at 9:10 am

Nadal won’t play at the US Open.I’m not a Nadal fan but this is bad news for me on more than one account. First of all, makes the title a lot easier for Djokovic. Furthermore, Ferrer gets #4 seed and Murray gets #8 seed. Ugh.

August 18th, 2014 at 9:13 am

BREAKING NEWS : Rafa is out of the US Open ! Injury still not healed

August 18th, 2014 at 9:14 am

@Roy:
I agree that it doesn’t mean it’s not a strong era. Spot on there, but isn’t being injury free and playing consecutive tournaments for years on end what sets Fed apart and is part of Federer’s success also?
Check that: it’s nearly all of it. Talent & hard work make up the rest.
If he’s there and others are not, well… Sucks to be the others.
I’m sure when Fed retires, Nadal*, Djokovic & Murray’s success will also increase.
Peace & love, man. We’re all fans of tennis here
*Mostly Djokovic & Murray, but you get where I’m coming from.

August 18th, 2014 at 9:18 am

Casey why would it be any easier for Novak,given his form of late,also Andy and Stan havent been at their best,Delpos not playing the USO,Rafa or no Rafa i would say this GS is pretty open,hes been in four finals,won the title once,but lost to Rafa twice and Murray once,so not exactly as dominant as he has been at the AO….

August 18th, 2014 at 9:21 am

Ranking points to defend for rest of the season

Djokovic:5203[USO-1200;SRBvsCAN-1;Beijing-500;Shangai-1000;Paris-1000;WTF1500;SRB vs.CZE DC Final-2]

Nadal-4162[USO-2000;ESPvsUKR-2Beijing-300;Shangai-360;Paris-360;WTF-1000;

Federer-1330[USO-180;Shangai-90;Basel-300Paris-360;WTF-400]

So Federer has an outside chance if he does well in USO,Paris and WTF London!!!

August 18th, 2014 at 9:23 am

@Michael

Someone has to say it, so here goes.
Two weeks ago the men were playing in Toronto, not Montreal as you’ve iterated many times.

Year end number 1 is determined by year over year results.
The race to London is current year results only.
Why two systems, who knows?

August 18th, 2014 at 9:24 am

àPatrick :
Geez, it’s not that complicated.
ATP rankings are based over the last 52 weeks, so it determines who is the current number one, taking an entire year worth of result (the last 52 weeks, I repeat).
The ATP race simply gives AN IDEA OF WHO IS THE BEST FROM THE ***BEGINNING*** OF THE CALENDAR YEAR.
So, as the year moves on, it’s getting more and more accurate and similar to the official ATP rankings. And guess what, at the very end of the year, both ranking matches ! Because the last 52 weeks on Dec.31 are the same as the weeks since Jan.1 !!
So, to sum up, a given player can officially be #1 in August, because he had tremendous results between September the previous year and August this year, but ANOTHER player can have better results since Jan.1. So that guy is NOT #1, but virtually on track ot be the #1 at the end of the year (if he keeps on with his good results), hence current #1 at the race.
Is that more clear ?

August 18th, 2014 at 9:52 am

And obviously, in both ranking systems, the same amount of points are given for a given tournament (i.e 2000 points for a Grand Slams victory, 1000 points for a Masters 1000 voctory, etc…).
So they (ATP race and ATP ranking) are really comparable, but do not have the same meaning…

August 18th, 2014 at 9:55 am

IMO Fed’s greatest career accomplishment is staying healthy. It’s not trivial, it’s no accident, and unlike returning from injury, it’s rarely credited.

August 18th, 2014 at 10:16 am

Michael, at the end of the year, both the points would be equal. One is the rolling system, where the points accumulated during the previous year is carried forward, but gets dropped on each tournaments, and the other is the one which starts at the beginning of the year. It’s much easier to track the ATP race points, since we don’t have to do the math of stripping the tournaments won last year.

The rolling system helps the player performed well in the end of season in the previous year, to have an advantage when the new season starts, also it protects the player for sometime in the ranking if they have to skip the early part of the year.

August 18th, 2014 at 10:38 am

I did not see RogerForNumber2or1’s post. My bad.

August 18th, 2014 at 10:46 am

roy,

Same can be said by Nadal’s run last year: Murray was out, Federer battling a back problem (and even so push Rafa in Cincy) and Djoko having doubts after losing RG semis to Nadal and a recent Wimbledon final to Murray. And even so, Nadal beat him 7-6 third set in Canada.

Nadal only had 1 more Big 4 win.

That’s is sport, whenever one of them is having a great run, usually is a combination of factors. It’s vary rare to have all 4 of them on equal terms in a tourney. Can’t even remember last time it happened.

Last year nobody thought Nadal could play that well and his momentum carry on into US Open. Same can happen to Federer this year.

If Murray continue his trend, Djoko doesn’t regroup in time and have another upset and Nadal (either not play or go undercooked afraid of re hurting his wrist) and the only one, playing great tennis and with later results to back it of is Federer.

Plus, he has the astrological advantage, as Jaime said it will be him or Wawrinka in USO LOL

August 18th, 2014 at 10:59 am

Michal,

The ATP Race and Number #1 ranking are the same by the end of the year.

What Wog Boy is saying is correct, for example if Federer wins USO Open and Djoko doesn’t reach final he will already be the number #1 player of the year, on 2014 points alone.

The difference may be big now because Nadal defends 5500 pts, Djoko defends 5400 and Fed only defends 1300 pts.

If Fed continues winning and accumulating more points than his rivals it could be a 3 way race. But all based on if he wins USO because then all 3 will have 1 Slam, and minimum 1 Masters with 2 more to be played and WTF.
It is a possibility and a very real one right now. Nobody knows what will happen with Djoko’s baby arrival (he may skip a few tourneys, asia swing). Nadal usually underperform after USO (this year with this gap could be opposite and he went ton to win some titles, or with injury clouds it’s uncertainty now) and Murray hasn’t reached a final all year long. Federed could be the “opportunist” this year. But hei, you got play who show up to play!

August 18th, 2014 at 11:14 am

@Klaas – thanks for the list. Interesting! With all of the matches and titles that Connors has won, he really didn’t have that many wins over top 10 players.

August 18th, 2014 at 11:16 am

Roger really needed that win yesterday after losing 5 finals this year. To come back strong in the 3rd set after a disastrous 2nd set will really help him with upcoming tight matches and finals.

August 18th, 2014 at 11:19 am

Sirius,Nirmal,Daniel and Wog Boy,

Thanks for the clarification on year end No.1 !!

August 18th, 2014 at 11:42 am

@RogerForNumber2or1

Condescend much?
I understand ‘both’ point-earning systems perfectly. The only issue is why the WTF uses a different and separate ranking system.
One ranking method should be enough and fair to all.

August 18th, 2014 at 1:37 pm

Patrick, it was a marketing gimmick a few years ago to try and drum up excitement for the WTF which the tour has for decades been trying to make into a fifth slam.
This is a huge accomplishment for Federer. I don’t think its significant that he didn’t play Novak or Murray- they were both in the tournament and injury free. Of course, Fed benefits from Rafa’s absence. But put the absence of Rafa together with Fed’s current level being higher than Murray’s, undisputably, and at least close to Novak’s, and suddenly Federer is AT LEAST second favourite at USO.

Nobody would have seen this coming before Wimbledon. Its a huge change in the year. His numbers vs top ten this year compared to last year are incredible.
It is a shame Rafa is out of USO, but it certainly looks like Old Man Fed has another shot at a Slam.
Love the style he’s playing too.

August 18th, 2014 at 3:16 pm

Also now cannot deny Edbergs influence. He should be getting some credit here also.

August 18th, 2014 at 4:02 pm

As a Murray fan, I think there are two big “ifs”.
Andy can do very well and surprise a lot of people… if…

Firstly of course, if he regains some form, and does so pretty quickly. We (and probably he) have no clues to go on. Still, he MIGHT get his act together – it’s not impossible.

Secondly, a factor that is not being mentioned: the weather. The USO is notoriously liable to weather problems, and weather everywhere is particularly unpredictable these days.

In 2012 Andy profited by the exceptionally windy conditions, particularly on the main court. He just edged past Berdych. True, the Birdman performed one of his famous collapses, but Andy DID get past him, while Fed had failed to do so.Roger doesn’t like high winds as they interfere with his precision game.

In the final, Andy handled the conditions just a bit better than Nole who, most people thought, had tanked the first set against Ferrer in the hope the morrow would be calmer. Because of the wind, the final was far from a classic tennis match, but for me, the sight of Andy and Nole fighting, not only each other but the wind, resulted in an epic struggle.

IF Andy finally wakes up, and IF it’s windy in New York, I fancy his chances.

August 20th, 2014 at 6:16 am

those seem like valid points to me colin; not sure if you saw, but margot left a link from the guardian on another thread and it’s is all about andy’s current form.

August 20th, 2014 at 9:37 am

*skip the “is”…

August 20th, 2014 at 9:43 am