Regarding Nadal’s second serve…as Hewitt said in one of his post match interviews, Federer is not an attacking returner…he typically just looks to get the ball back in play so unless he radically changes his return game for the final that aspect is a non-issue. Furthermore Nadal is capable of directing virtually 100% of his serves to the Federer backhand (as he did at the FO).

I kinda remember Federer really attacking Nadals sencond server on last years final… I do think its key…. he knows he doesnt have the edge from the baseline so hes got to attack quickly

Hitting an attacking return off a 100 mph hour lefty can-opener serve that is curving away from you with a one handed backhand aint easy….which is why you dont see it that often. There are a few guys with one handers who have the timing to do it (one of them was Gaston Gaudio) but even then its not a high percentage shot off the backhand.

Yeah, but Federer usually runs around them… remember the very last point of the match?

That second serve was directed short and in the middle of the box…Federer didnt have to move very far to hit a forehand…I wouldnt say that he ran around it. Nadals serving accuracy will be important but if he serves with the precision that he did at the FO Federer wont be spanking forehands like he did on Match Point last year.

Nadal still hasn’t been able to stand up to a full season. Each year he fades with the hardcourt season. If he can’t get around that Federer will remain on top for the remainder of the year. I think Nadal’s biggest risk is in getting injured and cutting his career shorter than it should be. Federer plays pretty much effortlessly but Nadal puts so much into every match that his body might just get worn down too much on the hardcourt. I don’t know how many years he can keep putting that much pressure on his knees for. It’s possible that he may need to limit his playing to mostly clay and grass within a couple of years.

Sean Randall: If Fed loses Sunday it will mark the changing of guard. Fed will still hold onto to No. 1 but it will be a matter of weeks before Rafa overtakes him and who knows when Roger gets back to the top.

Hmm.. let’s get it clear, here comes Bob Larson who is a math wonk: … But if he (Federer) loses, then he will have 6600 points and Rafael Nadal 6055 — a gap of 545 points. Between now and the U. S. Open, Federer has the Canadian Open final to defend (350 points) and the Cincinnati title (500 points). Nadal has a title at Stuttgart (250 points), a Canadian Open semifinal (225 points), and an opening round loss at Cincinnati (5 points). So Federer has 850 points to defend, Nadal 480. And they’ll probably both play Cincinnati, the Canadian Open, and the Olympics.

Oook, so Nadal playing on the hard courts that he DOES NOT like is going to overtake Fed while the latter has a lead in safe points? Sounds like somebody smoked something today…

As for Nadal ultimately going down as the greatest.. well we’ll see and he needs to win a a major or two on anything other than clay, right? The stuff that was smoked had to be just out of this world:)

MB, Im glad to see you yourself have cut back on whatever it was YOU were smoking during your previous post

Any discussion of Nadal as the GOAT is absurdly premature. If he crushes Federer tommorrow then maybe, just maybe the thought could be entertained for laughs…but ability and talent does not necessarily translate to accomplishment.

I was not smoking anything Vulcan, I am just not being a sucker. Wimbledon does not care about fair play, it cares about marketing. The only feasible way for them is to make it a clay-court tournament played on grass, that is grass has to take on the qualities of clay. And (surprise surprise) Wimbledon grass has been taking on those qualities: look at the bounce of the ball, how slow and high it become, amazingly.

Good luck to Rafa in the final. He was robbed of the Wimbledon title last year so I hope he wins it this year. It’s time for the boring Swiss domination to finally end and for a new exciting champion to take his place.

Nadal hasn’t been able to last a full season? Yes he has. He just hasn’t played as well as he might in the second half, and it’s not as if he’s played horribly with career titles in Montreal and Madrid and a finals appearance in Paris. Yeah, he SUCKS on second-half hardcourts.

I think the point is that Rafa has never had as successful a second half of the year as the first. He owns on clay and is now playing well on grass. While he has won titles in the second half of the year, he hasn’t made the finals of the US Open (only one semi) and hasn’t made the finals of the YEC yet. The consistency isn’t there, but let’s be honest, when you’re as good as he is on clay, it’s hard to live up to that on other surfaces.

And, Jez, how exactly was Nadal robbed last year? The weather? Not exactly anything you can do about that.

Jez Says:
Good luck to Rafa in the final. He was robbed of the Wimbledon title last year so I hope he wins it this year. It’s time for the boring Swiss domination to finally end and for a new exciting champion to take his place.

Uh - yeah. Jez - exactly HOW was Nadal robbed last year? And would you like to explain how Federer’s game is boring? Or maybe it’s the pirate pants that get you excited? Hmmmnnnnn.

Federer in straights? Sean, when this match ends (dont know when, given that rain is forecast tomorrow and the day-after through much of the day) - anyway when the match ends you will be a true genius or totally stupid.

Being a federer fan, i hope it is the former. Seriously, I dont know if even the fanatics on rogerfederer.com have predicted a straight sets win for Roger. You are one brave dude. Goodluck with the nadal trolls. (Incase you get very scared by them, you can inform the rf.com member about your prediction and they will send over their own trolls to take care of nadal trolls.

Ahh Troll wars sounds like a great idea…put em all on an island and let them annihilate each other!

How come Dan Martin doesn’t get to write more of the articles on x-blog? … why always Sean Randall?
Nadal has made great progress in his serve over the last year … but his style of play could unfortunately be his demise. I think there is a chance his knees aren’t going to stand up for much longer on the circuit… particularly if he decides to play the hard court part of the season. Too bad, because I enjoy his “rabbit-like” style of play. I also think its premature to speculate about Nadal’s place in Tennis history. Let’s see if he can win on more than one surface … and the longevity of his career. How will Nadal fair in the last half of the year when tennis moves to a fast surface … and slow loopers loose their magic? … Can he adapt and learn a different style like he has with his serve … or is he a clay court and “slow” grass player. Seems Federer is pretty good at them all!

Vulcan, Federer has to attack Rafa’s second serve. He simply cannot hang on the baseline and hope for good things to happen. He needs to be aggressive, and I think he will.

Stu, true Nadal hasn’t played a complete season, but he just turned 22 and maybe this will be the year he put it’s all together. As for his knees, what’s the problem? The “he’ll be injured prone” argument is getting old.

MattBryan, I didn’t do any math, but if Fed loses tomorrow Rafa will become No. 1 in a matter of time. The point breakdowns you give may be true, but the writings on the wall. Fed will drop and Rafa will take over and my thinking he’d do it before the U.S. Open.

FedEx, I don’t mind the trolls or the Rafa fans – he’ll I’ve been called one myself!

Sean, he may want to but if Nadal serves 98% second serves to the backhand corner of the service box Federer simply wont be able to attack. It all comes down to whether or not Nadal serves as accurately as he did at the FO where for one of the sets he served virtually every single ball to the Federer backhand. If that happens most of what Federer will be hitting are chipped returns.

Come on Roger you can do it.

I used to enjoy the serve & volley players like Edberg, Rafter, Becker,Ivanisevic,Philippoussis etc.

Wimbledon was meant to be a surface that favoured this style of tennis. The change of grass type and slower balls they introduced last year have turned the surface into a quasi-clay court title. Lets get those baseline players back off the base line (at Wimbledon).
Wimbledon was meant to be special … but its lost some of its panache. As the Brits might say… “Pity”.

I think the grass playing like clay theories are useless and claims of false hope for anyone who is a supporter of Nadal’s style of play being better than Federer’s.

Based off of this tournament, Federer clearly is comfortable on the ‘clay grass’, and he has yet to be challenged consistently, and has even shown signs of his mental strength by coming back from several games down early in this tournament. There is no reason to believe Federer is suffering or will be limited due to the conditions of the court.

I feel that this match has a chance to go any number of ways, and alot of it will be determined by momentum, the serve, and Federer’s tactics regarding his aggressive or defensive returns.

Assuming Federer serves well, he should hold his games comfortably throughout the match, and should be able to dictate the points if he is on his target. I expect Nadal to break Federer in this match, likely early on, but in 5 sets, with the mental state Federer will likely be in, it’s hard to imagine him performing poorly, or losing his service games with anywhere near the ease as he did in the French Open. Also, one can assume his confidence will be very high against Nadal in this match.

I think Federer has the shot variety, selection and style to push Nadal around the court in this match, he has been very accurate with his forehand, especially cross court, he’s also hitting the ball deeply as well, which should cause Federer to move Nadal back, and allow him to be successful with volley’s.

Also, even though Nadal’s serve has improved, and he is very accurate to the backhand of Federer, which should make it difficult for Federer to gain the advantage on Nadal’s serve. However, the likelihood of Nadal losing serve in this match to me seems much higher than the notion that Federer will struggle during his service games.

I think this match has the possibility to go 5 sets, but I feel that Federer has the ability to win this match in 4 sets, with a strong possibility that he loses the 1st. I think if Federer wins the 1st set, he has the game on this surface to penetrate Nadal’s service games, and for this match to be relatively routine for him, although it should be highly contested.

I would expect 7-5, 6-7, 6-4, 6-4 to Federer.

Sean Randall you are the greatest when it comes to writing tennis articles. I love what you write and I always look foward to your next article. Sometimes you are ridiculous but you biased is great. I agree. Federer in 3!

I remember Federer went down with a love set to Nadal on their last meeting; Would there be a significant effect in both players confidence with this love set?

The latest from Borg:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080705/tts-uk-tennis-wimbledon-borg-5152039.html

MattBryan Says:

“I was not smoking anything Vulcan, I am just not being a sucker. Wimbledon does not care about fair play, it cares about marketing. The only feasible way for them is to make it a clay-court tournament played on grass, that is grass has to take on the qualities of clay. And (surprise surprise) Wimbledon grass has been taking on those qualities: look at the bounce of the ball, how slow and high it become, amazingly.”

If that is true, we should expect Nadal to romp over Fed tomorrow right? If Fed wins, what will be your excuse then?

Alan Mills said (in a documentary) that there has been only one change of grass: from 2000 to 2001, and it has been the same since then.

This grass is (like the former) totally different from clay (ask Davydenko, Almagro or Federer himself). The ball bounces a bit higher than before, but still clearly less than it bounces on clay or on hardcourts.

Nadal has won 3 Masters-Series on hard-courts (Indian Wells, Canadian-Open and Madrid-indoor). He has won Dubai (beating Federer in the final) and Pekín.

He reached the final in the Paris-Bercy Masters-Series indoor.

He has won Queens.

Obviously, he can play on every surface.

Davydenko plays great on clay and on hardcourts (he reached SF twice in RolandGarros, and QF another time, and SF twice in the USOPEN and QF thrice in the Australian Open), but he always loses early playing on this grass.

Btw, I think Federer will win in straight sets, maybe in four sets.

Nadal has improved a lot on grass this year, but Federer is still the best grass-court player of the world.

His game is totally suited to play on grass (as much as Nadal’s game is totally suited to play on clay).

Spin Says:

“Nadal hasn’t been able to last a full season? Yes he has. He just hasn’t played as well as he might in the second half, and it’s not as if he’s played horribly with career titles in Montreal and Madrid and a finals appearance in Paris. Yeah, he SUCKS on second-half hardcourts.”

He’s won Indian Wells, Montreal, Dubai, Madrid, and been twice a finalist at Miami (he should have beat Federer in 05). Madrid and Dubai are fast hard courts. SF at AO (new and faster AO) and QF at USO.

Sean, you are a typical fickle-type american. Wake me when Nadal comes within a couple of sets of winning The Grand Slam two years in a row. Or reaching the final Sunday in 12 of 13 grand slam events. Or reaching 230+ consecutive weeks at #1. etc etc etc.

There’s no appreciation for true greatness, it’s always “what have you done for me lately”? And we’ve all heard it before from you mediot (media idiots) types. Kobe Bryant was supposed to be the next Michael Jordan, blah blah blah.

I do agree this Wimbledon final is huge, stakes are very high. Personally, I’d like to see Federer win, but I really don’t have many complaints if Nadal does. Regardless, Americans are nowhere near the top of men’s tennis. And that is a real blessing.

I tried to post a link, but it won’t seem to take…

By Clare Lovell Reuters - Saturday, July 5 03:25 pm

LONDON (Reuters) - Five-times former Wimbledon champion Bjorn Borg has changed his mind about who will win this year’s championship, veering towards Roger Federer instead of Rafael Nadal.

After the French Open when Nadal thrashed Federer in the final for the loss of only four games, Borg, the last man to win both tournaments in the same year, said he thought Nadal would win Wimbledon for the first time.

But after watching both men play “unbelievable tennis” to reach the semi-finals he told reporters: “Roger is playing perfect tennis.

“Before the tournament I picked Nadal just to pick someone else… Nadal has improved his game a lot since last year but if Roger is playing the way he has until the semi-finals it’s going to be tough to beat Roger,” Borg said.

Borg was speaking before Friday’s semi-finals when Federer, looking to surpass Borg’s modern-era record by winning a sixth title in a row, takes on Marat Safin and Nadal meets Rainer Schuettler.

Borg said Federer was brimming with confidence and Nadal, beaten finalist the last two years, had improved immensely on grass.

After winning the claycourt French Open, the Spaniard quickly adjusted to the slick surface by capturing the Queen’s Club title a week later.

“Nadal looked like he had been practising on grass for a month… for me it was impossible to get used to the grass that quickly,” Borg said.

In Paris, Borg said Federer had a bad match. “But this is his home field.”

If they both make the final he added: “I’m going to be there and I hope we are going to see another unbelievable final like we did last year.”

Borg said Federer and Nadal, seeded one and two, were equally hungry. Nadal to win a grand slam other than the French and Federer because he wanted to break records, not just at Wimbledon but for grand slam wins.

“Nadal has lost twice in the final and he wants to win this tournament badly. Roger wants six in a row…they push each other to perform good tennis like me and John (McEnroe) did.

“I think Roger is feeling very confident. You can see it in his face, the way he is moving on the court, the way he’s hitting the ball.”

Borg added he would not be upset to lose his own record. “If Roger should win for the sixth time I would be very happy for him. He is not only an unbelievable champion. He’s a great person.”

(Editing by Pritha Sarkar)

During Rafa’s interview, someone cited him as the favorite according to 70%, but at espn.com the poll has 68% picking Federer. It’s on the homepage if anyone cares to vote.

Sometimes I feel that many people underestimate Nadal’s performances on hardcourts.

Many people seem to consider Blake, Gasquet, Murray, Youznhy, Ljubicic,….great (or at least good) hard-court players.

Do you know how many Masters-Series on hardcourts have them won?.

NONE.

Nadal has won 3.

Did you know that in 2005 and 2006 Nadal was the second best player of the world outside of clay? (I mean, he was the second player that got more points outside of clay)

And last year he was the third (only behind Federer and Djokovic)

Sean the GOAT discussions are fun, but I think there is a qualitative and quantitative difference between the guys with 8 slams and the guys with more when evaluating who has the more decorated career. Connors, Lendl, & Agassi all have a lot of honors and interesting stats backing up their greatness, but Borg, Sampras, and Federer (I did all of these in chronological order to be as unbiased as possible) all seemingly obviously had better careers. Rafa has 4 slams and could easily win a lot more French Open titles. A Wimbledon crown would go a long way toward his overall standing in the pantheon. Still, I would hold off on GOAT stuff until he gets to 8 Slams (something I think he will do by the way).

I think GOAT discussions are really two different but related discussions: 1. Who had a better career? 2. Who played the nastiest game of tennis?(Who would win more often between a given two players across surfaces? - is my more sophisticated 2nd question) On the first question, I shelve Nadal for awhile. On the 2nd question, he does frighteningly well. On clay, Nadal is my #1 all time even if I try to balance string/racket technology and sport’s medicine/training across eras. Rafa is one of the toughest players of all time.

We shall see for Rafa, but how would Lendl or Wilander or … out slug him from the baseline? Of the all-time greats, I think Rafa would match-up worst against Sampras (off of clay of course) due to the Sampras serve robbing Rafa of long points to groove his strokes and wear down his opponent. Having said all of that I stick with Federer in 4 sets tomorrow - see my preview for more (shameless plug).

As much as love Federer’s game, the GOAT discussion is absurd.(Different players, different rackets tecnology, different string tecnology….).

You will never know how would past champions play today (with today’s racket and string tecnology) if they had been born twenty o thirty years later.

And you will never know how Federer or Nadal would have played if they had been born twenty or thirty years earlier.

The only thing you can say is player X has won more GS tournaments, player Y has been nº1 more weeks, player Z has ended more years nº1, player W has won more ATP tournaments…..(but that doesn’t mean one of them is “the best player of all times” because such thing doesn’t exist).

The first line should be read: “As much as I love Federer’s game…..”

You are right matt, but if the same player has all the above them we have a dilema?!

Hell yeah Sampras would rock Nadal’s world!

even if fed loses tomorrow - which he won’t - why is he ‘losing everything’? he claims he will play for another 8 years or so with many more titles to follow.

stop the media melodrama!

and can we officially stop the GOAT discussions?

boring and useless.

Hi everybody !
I am back on time and hope to see you guys over the match tomorrow morning.
As on the past slams, I will be posting game by game. This is how I will be enjoying the match, sharing the moments. I am not promising I will be able to do this, but at least during the match, I will try not to be taking the side except highlighting the ups and downs.

By this time, pretty much all of us have reviewed, some of us more than once, Fed and Rafa’s records (slams, H2H, winning streak, aces, double faults, returns, 1st and 2nd serve % won, etc.) as well as their strengths and weaknesses. Both Fed and Rafa need no coaching from us: They both know more than we ever will what each will have to do to win this match. But tomorrow morning everything will be doubly contingent once these two players enter the court. Predictions based on the past will be tested and could be even defied.
My only hope at this point is that the match does not conclude in straight sets or 4 sets. I will enjoy most if the match is decided in the 5th set tie break, preferably going beyond 14 games.

Shital:

Welcome back!! I hope you had a relaxing vacation and are ready for the excitement of tomorrow’s match. I too, would like to see a 5 setter. Enjoy.

I do think the GOAT discussions are a bit crazy because you have to try to equalize across rackets, strings, training methods, nutritional knowledge, sports medicine advances and surface changes. how would the rankings stand if 3 of 4 slams were today played on what would today be considered gnarled grass courts? How would Lew Hoad have played against lleyton Hewitt? Well if each had the rackets/training etc. of their day, Hoad would get killed. Hoad if updated might dominate Hewitt. Who really knows? It sure don’t. Even a 5-10 year gap with the new string technology and better sports medicine makes it hard to compare. Poor Tommy Haas might have retired much earlier in a previous era due to his chronic injuries and maybe if he played 20 years from now he’d have no major injury layoffs. Pete Sampras playing an Australian Open on grass would have almost certainly won more than two titles down under. Would Jimmy Connors have played and had success in Australia after 1975 if it was on a hard court - probably. How does winning the WCT finals in Dallas compare to winning a Masters Series event Madrid?

It really is an impossible set of variables to compensate for when comparing across eras. Dealing with stress, being able to compete and being disciplined enough to train are about the only semi-constants. Even at that how does Germany playing in the 1937 Davis Cup with Hitler phoning in a pre match pep talk to Gottfried Von Cramm (who did not like Nazism) compare to David Wheaton and Brad Gilbert getting into a shoving match in the semifinals of the very lucrative inaugural (& now defunct) Grand Slam Cup?

At best we can use our imaginations and see Nadal in a previous era as a cross between Bjorn Borg (an super athlete with massive speed and top spin) and Jimmy Connors (lefty and fiery). Maybe Federer with a wooden racket was more of a genius than John McEnroe. Bobby Riggs beat some guy playing with a broom instead of a racket. What could he have done with today’s rackets and strings? All of this stuff is really just re-imagining players into different eras. It is fun, but far far from an exact science.

Shital,

Welcome back. I hope you had an enjoyable vacation.

BTW I agree that the GOAT discussion is pointless, though for me personally it will always be Laver. I guess everybody has his/her own personal favorite and it actually does not matter how many slams the guy won or how many years he stayed as No1.

As for “new exciting champion”, again I agree that it is mostly housewives’ infatuation with bulging muscles, pirate pants and handsome face… oh forgot to mention “Vamos” and fist pump:)

“Writing on the wall” seems to me absolutely different. It is Fed’s part of the season starting and I would not give Nadal many chances in it, I would rather look for Djokovich to be a real challenger.

It definitely is hard to compare players from different eras but… how can we say Nadal even has a chance of being considered the GOAT or even one of the GOAT?? I dont understand that at all… since hes been on the tour he has never even been no.1 at any point…

Von and Ra,
Thank you guys. What made the whole vacation package awesome was one day I got to play tennis on rye grass.

The morning starts with rain. The match will be delayed by at least an hour.

Glad that the rain has stopped long before I got impatient.

Jane, Dan and Sean,
Are you guys fired up and ready to go?
Here they come, Rafa and Fed enter the court. Rafa did not like coming out first. Well, the ranking does that. He hopes to come out after Fed, which will happen only if he becomes No. 1.

I like Fed not wearing the funny looking gentleman’s attire.

Battle for the 1st point. Fed misses the 1st serve twice already. !st point goes to Rafa after a good rally.
Rafa hits wide, 1st unforced error in the 2nd point. It is 15-15. Rafa scrambles in the 3rd point. Fed leads 30-15. Fed plays 4th point really good and, with his first ace, holds the serve.

Rafa serving, takes 1st point. Beautiful net play by Fed. 15-15. Fed could not return the T-line serve. 30-15. Fed throws out his backhand. It is 40-15.
I like Rafa’s 2nd serve. Rafa double faults, and it is 40-30. Nerve?
Fed throws slightly wide, another unforced error.
One game a piece.

3rd game. Fed’s serve, takes 1st point. Rafa’s down the line forehand return earns him a point. Next point Fed plays well, but the 5th point in this game Fed throws in the net, and it is 30-40. Fed misses his on-the-body backhand return, and Rafa takes the break. Good sign for Rafa.

4th game: Nadal’s serve. The 1st point of this game has been the most beautiful. Those short wide angles were just great. Nadal is 40-0. Rafa challenges the game point call and wins, but Fed wins the replay point on Rafa’s error. Fed plays the next point really great, the cross court backhand. 40-30. Fed is back. with his net play to deuce it. Fed plays his best to earn the next point after a very long rally. Fed has the 1st break point, but he misses forehand. Back to deuce. Good serve by Rafa, but the next point Fed’s forehand return in the corner makes it deuce again. Another forehand miss by Fed gives Rafa Ad. He misses 1st serve (3rd or 4th time already). Fed cannot return the 2nd serve, throws backhand in the net. Rafa holds.

5th game. Easy service game for Fed. Rafa could not return a single one, maybe still recovering from the tough last game. Rafa leading 3-2 and serving.

go rafa, this is yours to take!!!

6th game: Rafa takes 1st point when after a good rally Fed throws long. A ridiculous long backhand from Rafa. 15-15. Fed makes an easy backhand error from close to the net. 30-15. Fed comes to the net, but Rafa whips an ugly cross court short. Fed makes another UE. Now Rafa leads 4-2.

So far Nadal only serve one at Fed’s forehand. Good tactic. Now Fed stands one step more on his backhand.

7th game: Fed hits a backhand cross court winner but misses the 1st serve in the next point. Rafa returns. Fed plays the next point very well on the net. 40-30. Rafa misses his backhand short angle. Fed holds at 3-4.

8th: Rafa’s serve. Fed makes backhand error. Fed misses easy one at the net and throws long another to give Rafa 40-0, but Fed’s next net play was great. Rafa cannot get to Fed’s lob return. 40-15. Fed throw a forehand wide. Rafa leads 5-3.

9th game. Fed serves really well next 4 points and holds his serve 2nd time in love (1st was the 5th game).

Fed should attack him at volley more often. cut off all the angles and reduce the running time of Nadal’s speed.

10th game: Rafa is serving for the set. Fed misses another backhand return, and Rafa misses forehand. 15-15. Fed plays next point really well from the net. 15-30. Fed throws long but challenges and loses the point. 30-30. Beautiful forehand shot from Rafa. Fed plays the next point really awesome. The best point of the match. Deuce. Fed goes to the net to level the set. Takes Ad. Rafa-Fed battle at their best in these two pints. Rafa wins the point at the end and delivers his 1st ace. 2nd set point. Fed hits unreturnable forehand cross court from one corner to another. Deuce. Fed hits a similar inside out forehand in the same corner. 2nd chance to break. Rafa misses the 1st serve. Fed had a huge chance to break here but could not. Deuce 4. Fed throws backhand wide Set point 3. Rafa lures Fed constantly into backhand and Fed misses in the net.
Rafa takes the 1st set.
My 1st laugh at Sean !

Fed got better 1st serve now. Hope that he can keep his serve game in 2nd set. Certainly not a one side match as French Final

2nd set, 1st game: Fed serves well again to make quick 40-0 and then game. 3rd time hods in love.

Tough first for Roger. Rafa played too good. Roger needs to really quit chipping the return. That play is not going to work. Sneaking in, that chip/charge he did are better plays.

The conditions - windy/damp - no in Roger’s favor either. But Fed’s game did pick up toward the end of the set. Let’s see if he can stay at that level because right now he’ll need to the way Rafa’s going.

Roger jump to left to use forehannd Nadal’s 2nd servc. Come to the net, Roger.

This match is insane.

2nd set 2nd game: Rafa’s serve. Fed plays again at the net to win 1st point and hits a forehand winner. 0-30. Fed dumps 2nd serve return in the net. 15-30. Fed’s next net play is weak, and Rafa makes it 30-30. Rafa misses his forehand. Fed has another chance to break. 30-40, and does it here with his forehand. Here, Rafa beat himself by trying to overplay, confused.

2nd set 3rd game: Fed makes a few errors but holds to consolidate his break and leads 3-0. He should be winning this set.
I am ALMOST sure at this point that the match will go into the 5th set set. Both are playing their best tennis, and I am satisfied so far.

Nobody I know is around here. So I will come back at the end of the 2nd set.

Roger’s serve is back

One quick note Fed has been serving amazing. Fed holds for the 4th time in love to lead 4-1.
If Fed wins, I will give his serve credit, but if he loses, I will say he got outplayed.
Rafa is not serving well at all, so he could be blaming his serve if he loses.

Roger’s serve is back but his volleys are utter garbage. Now that Rafa’s back on serve Roger’s in a real deep hole. Real deep!

8th game 2nd set, Rafa gets a break chance on Fed’s 2nd serve. Rafa levels the match and on the way to 4-4 if he holds his own serve, which he will in all likelihood.

Fed says not so fast. He battles well to bring it at 30-30, but Rafa serves well in the next point to lead, but he throws a forehand in the net. Deuce. Tough for Rafa to hold his serve. Misses 1st serve and misses another forehand on the wide. Fed has another break chance. Rafa serves well and Deuce 2. Fed misses an approach shot from the net, goes long at the baseline.
Finally, Rafa holds, and it is 4-4.

Nadal will win

It is not a prediction or projection, but I would not be surprised if Rafa wins in straight sets. I wanted the match to be a 5 setter, but it looks like Fed is gonna disappoint me.

Rafa is serving to take 2 sets lead. Fed is putting everything in. Rafa’s improved backhand slice gives him set point, but Fed plays great backhan rallies, and Rafa misses his forehand in the net. Deuce. Rafa misses 1st serve. Rafa’s forehand slice volley is blown away by the wind. And Fed has break chance. Next point, a lot of scrambling, and Fed throws forehand in the net. Deuce 2. Rafa serves well, topspin, and Fed throws long. Rafa set point 2, but misses 1st serve, but Fed wastes it in the net with his weak backhand.
Rafa takes 2 sets lead, and I am laughing at Dan this time.

It’s all nerves. if federer doesn’t steady is nerves. Rafa wins today

break points is 3/3. Federer is playing the important points poorly.

4th game 3rd set: Fed has double break chances, and Rafa misses 1st serve but deuce by challenging long. Deuce. He serves well to take Ad and, Fed misses his backhand: it goes wide. Rafa holds at 2-2.

5th game 3rd set: Fed holds his service game easily in love, (4th or 5th time?). Like I said, I would not blame his serve for the loss, if he loses. I would say he let Rafa play baseline rallies to dictate in his own terms, meaning Fed is not playing serve & volley as much as he should.

go rafa, i knew you would win. roger is toast.

6th game 3rd set, Rafa gives Fed another double break chance. Rafa saves the 1st with his 2nd serve, 30-40. Again, Rafa misses 1st serve. And again, Fed cannot return Rafa’s 2nd serve. Deuce. Rafa’s 3rd miss in the 1st serve, and this time Fed hits forehand cross court winner. to have another break chance (1 for 11 break conversion). Rafa saves to deuce it, but Fed unleashes forehand winner to have 12th break chance, 4th in this game alone. He cannot return at the baseline with his backhand. Deuce 3. Then, Rafa hits massive overhead shot to game point, and Fed trows a long.
Rafa holds. It is 3-3.

with this 3-3 hold by Nadal in nthe third set its over

7th game 3rd set: Fed is down 0-30 and misses the 1st serve and misses at the net. 0-40. Fed saves 1st break point and 2nd break point with his well placed serve. But he misses 1st serve, but Rafa cannot return the serve. Deuce. Fed is in control with game point. A good serve helps him hold. It is 4-3.

Rafa now close to the finish line becomes nervous and allow Fed to climb out of a 0-40 hole
whats going on here

8th game, 3rd set: Rafa is serving to hold at 4-4. Easy 1st 2 points but misses one, serves well and it is 40-15 and Fed throws up in the sky for long.
Rafa holds at 4-4.

9th game 3rd set: Fed is winning his service points easy, but suddenly misses two, and it is 30-30. He serves well in the 5th and 6th point to hold at 5-4.

Dark rain cloud is looming and it starts raining to interrupt the match. For how long? We don’t know.

I knew it :(…. Nadal has just been playing too good lately…. this match might not even be going to 4 sets.

Again: This match is insane. Roger has won 95 points to Rafa’s 92 but has only converted 1 of 12 breakpoints, whereas Rafa has converted 3 of 7…

Shital - how nice to see you back; hope your vacation was a good one.

I hope Rafa can finish it in 3 after this rain delay.

An interesting match … Federer in fact playing very well except for occasional brain cramps on critical break points. The tennis gods are with Nadal so far. Federer is actually leading in almost every stat except for break points won… the most important one. If anyone can come back and still pull this match out … it is Federer. Come on’ tennis gods … show him some mercy. Nadals had his share of luck … its Feds turn. We will see 5 sets yet!

This match is a long way from over.
The rain delay is just what the doctor ordered for Roger. Hes the more experienced player and he knows Rafa is going to have time to think about what he might accomplish. All of the right ingredients for a classic choke. The question is does Nadal have the mettle (hes already shown he has the game) to sit around in the locker room and come back out to what essentially is going to be an entirely new match.

Tennis Fan,

Rafa is leading in first serve percentage and net approaches in addition to break point conversions. And he has half as many unforced errors.

roger is the one who usually chokes, not rafa.