The only problem with predicting Rafa will win 18 or more slams is his body! He has to tape both knees before every match. He even had to call for a trainer at Wimbledon (although it didn’t appear to hamper him there); he was basically broken down at last year’s US Open after playing 2 tournaments on hard court. We all know the hard court in the summer does not agree with Nadal’s knees and so it’s hard to see what the future holds in store for someone with such a physical game and who relies on speed so much.

Also, I would like to wait and see what the players do on the summer hard court. I think it’s a mistake to think Roger is through since usually even with all the wins Roger has, he has shown in the past that his body can hold up for the duration of the long tennis calendar year. He was the one playing the best at the end of the tennis season last year beating Nadal pretty good at the year-end and winning that title while Djokovic really fizzled out last year.

And, like you said - I found it a little disturbing that Djokovic said earlier that he was mentally tired. Mentally tired in May/June? He has a long road ahead of him and needs to know that by being one of the favorites, the bullseye is on his back - so welcome to the Federer/Nadal world.

Djokovic definitely was tired mentally because he had been playing mental warfare a lot throughout the european summer season.He was talking so much about beating Nadal and Federer that he could not bear the pressure he brought upon himself.He paid a big price for his and his family’s idiotic arrogance.I am confident the early wimbledon exit will put some sense into his head.He was firmly put in his place there and will be more careful about saying anything stupid in the future.He just did not have any excuse and therefore came out with a ridiculous one of being “mentally tired”.It was Nadal who should have been mentally and physically tired.Yet,he played like a champion without complaining and has got the just rewards.Vamos Rafael!!

Rafa has the best chance for winning the career slam? What are you smoking? Nadal has made 1 semifinal at a hard court major. Federer has made the final of the one slam that has eluded him (3 times). I like Nadal but I think it is a tall task for him to win both the Australian and the US Open given his long winding forehand. He just doesn’t have the time on a hard court to really utilize this stroke like he does on clay and slow grass of Wimbledon.

I agree, i think that rafael will not be performing at his best at the US Open, but i think he’d be feeling pretty confident at this point because he’s so close to finally being the worlds number 1, so maybe that will give him the mental strength most others dont have. I love Roger too though so its hard to say who will be the worlds best tennis player after this comp. i really want to see more of Richard Gasquet personally, he’s a fantastic player! extremely talented and is definetly capable of winning Many slams to come! but its just that he’s not “mentally strong enough”

Mark my words, and I say this with no ill thoughts towards Federer, who will remain one of the greatest of all time, for sure, but Rafa will win them all! 5 Grand Slams at 22!!! 10 more to go.
Just wait and see… VAMOS RAFA!

haha, no i agree i think that nadal will not be the worlds no. 2 for much longer he’s got many years ahead of him too! roger will have to retire when rafa is still in top form, so if you think about it rafa will be like what roger is now

yes! I agree with ‘tennisisthebest’! i think richard has exceeding talent! his style is much like roger federers but he has a few tricks of his own ;0, he’s definetly not going away, i think he’ll be number 1 some day.. soon..

Rafa’s shown us that he’s always improving and working on his game, plus he’s very young, so it’s entirely likely that he will win a hardcourt slam, or two, or three.

IMO, he’ll probably have better luck at the AO, though, being that it’s now a “slower” hardcourt and it’s held at the beginning of the year, when he’s fresh. The USO will always be tougher for him, I would think.

I agree with Sean that the end of this year will probably be more chaotic, with the masters events, olympics, and open spread between a few players - perhaps some less predictable winners too.

As for Djokovic’s mental exhaustion, I hope it was simply an excuse, as someone mentioned above. But the guy is only 20 and I think after winning his first slam he might’ve (?) been a little overwhelmed. That’s no excuse, really; he played poorly against Safin. But he’s been awfully consistent in slams up to this year’s Wimbledon, so we’ll see how / if he bounces back. I wrote on another blog that I read somewhere that Novak text messaged his coach after the Roger - Rafa Wimbledon final: “I’ve got a lot to learn” so hopefully he’ll continue to improve as well, working out the kinks in his game etc, and stay in the mix. He does have a great game - on all surfaces.

“Novak Djokovic remains a real mystery to me. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, he’s got a lot of game. A lot. But something’s still isn’t right between the ears.”
Don’t be so harsh on Nole.One bad loss and we are making him a mystery.I don’t think there is much wrong between his ears.He is just 21 and yet has achieved quite a lot in his short career.I don’t think we should be so demanding because the clay and grass season was not expected to be his to lose in any case.The Roger-Rafa “show” was a real show only at wimby.On clay,it was only a Rafa show.From this point onwards,I expect it to become a Nole show as I don’t expect Roger to do as well as he normally does and Rafa is not capable of matching Nole on hard courts even though he may improves his results from last year.Nole had a bad finish last year and I expect him to gain a lot of points in the indoor season.In fact,I won’t be surprised if Fed finishes the year ranked third behind Rafa and Nole.The year-end number one rank is almost impossible for Nole now because of his poor wimby as compared to Rafa’s but he can hope for second place depending on how Fed plays in the rest of the season.

Novak needs to dump his entourage and find his own motivation, a la Hewitt.

I think that a lot of people, including the press, took Nole’s comment about being mentally tired way to literally. The way I understood that remark was that it was only a comment regarding his match with Marat. I say this because as soon as he stepped out on the court I could tell he wasn’t really interested in playing, he just wasn’t there MENTALLY. All of you are making it sound as if he said he was mentally tired of playing in general or whatever. I’m very excited about Rogers Cup, I hope he’ll be able to defend his title and that he will rock U.S Open.

Please may I ask, no more Nadal-Federer finals. Not for another year at least.

shhhhhh, don’t look now but nadal is only 9 slams away from sampras!

I dont know what you guys are playing at writing Federer off so soon..if u must know Sampras did not win slams for almost two years..and then came bact to win the USO when nobody expected that..as for Rafa- he’s lucky the grass courts have been slowered down..put the grass courts into the pace they were earlier..and rafa wouldnt even make the finals..& that can be seen from his performance in 2005.he just runs around like a rabbit chasing every ball down..there’s nothing extraodinary about his game..its nowhere near to Federer’s
style of playing..how long is he going to run like that???? & if you’re forgetting Federer has been winning three slams a year & all tht for four years & most of the times he’s been without a coach..i’d like to see rafa doing that.

All this speculation about who will win how many slams amounts to nothing. Everyone forgets the next Sampras or Federer is probably just ready to burst on the scene. 5 years from now there will many more contenders the likes of which we’ve never seen before. By that time, Nadal will be overwhelmed by the competition because his type of play can’ be sustained, and on hard court, as Tsonga showed us, Nadal can look ridiculously slow compared to the greatest of players.

As for Federer I doubt he’s done. Far from it. As soon as a dominent player starts to lose everyone is so quick to wrtite them off and write about the changing of the guards. Total journalistic BS with no solid arguments. The set back for Federer could be related to his personnal life, and though speculations amount it’s his long time relationship to Mirka (his manager & girlfriend), no one has actually written about the effect it can have on a career. Just look at Agassi when things went wrong with then wife Brook Shields.

I believe Federer will either take a break from tennis or come back much stronger, but he will have to clean house first. If his relationship doesn’t give him much satisfaction anymore, he will have to move on and we all know this could be devastating for his career in the short term. Hopefully he will make the right choices and sacrifice what has to go for tennis, the sports, the records, the glory and the fans.

janhavi says;

“…as for Rafa- he’s lucky the grass courts have been slowered down..put the grass courts into the pace they were earlier..and rafa wouldnt even make the finals..& that can be seen from his performance in 2005.he just runs around like a rabbit chasing every ball down..there’s nothing extraodinary about his game..its nowhere near to Federer’s style of playing… ”

Come on dude! Are u kidding me or what? Believe me; even federer’s fans will think that you’re out of your mind! Whether Rafa’s game is extraordinaire or not, it is very subjective to be talked about so it’ll only waste my time to further argue about it. However, why can’t you accept the fact that he won Wimbledon because he has become a better player from time to time? Come on, this is Nadal in 2008 that we are talking about, not the the 19 year-old Nadal!

Another thing is about the nonsense reason that some of you keep barking; the “slowered” down grass court of Wimbledon! Come on, if Federer is that great (I mean sooooo great), why can’t he adapt with the “slowered” down grass court? In my opinion, there is no doubt that Federer is one of the greatest tennis player ever, but Nadal won the title not because of the “slowered” down grass court, he won because he played better than Federer! Shame on you!

“…if you’re forgetting Federer has been winning three slams a year & all tht for four years & most of the times he’s been without a coach..i’d like to see rafa doing that…”

Gosh!!! Nobody denies that but just because Federer’s plays good tennis without a coach, it doesn’t mean that it suitable for other players too… duh!

To be honest with all of you, I am Nadal’s fan but I put all my respect to Federer as well. Listen to all the craps that you’ve created towards Nadal and Federer has only made me sick. To me, both players have contributed so much in the world of tennis. I also believe that Federer should be placed in a different level and class of players than Nadal and Djokovic, due to the fact that those two players are still young and there are still a lot of rooms for improvement.

Shital asked for my take on the Toronto draw and I think it is perhaps one of the hardest draws I have ever seen for Nadal. Good players lurk throughout his quarter of the draw.

Seriously, I’m as pissed as the next Fed fan about Nadal winning but cmon. Nadal just runs around like a rabbit? That didn’t look like his only gameplan at all in the final. Give credit where credit is due and Nadal deserves a lot of credit. And cmon, would you really have Federer losing to a guy who simply runs around like a rabbit?

The draw is really tough for Nadal… on paper.

What happen with Toronto’s draw. I counted 8 lucky loser!

Nadal played better is one of reason he won Wimbledon. The slowere grass is another. But even the grass is fast, Federer would still lose, as he played too much error. Nadal played better in this year is a fact, but I am looking forward to seeing his performance at hard court. I feel his hard court game will improve. I also want to see the loss at Wimbledon will make Fed let him down forward or bounce back.

After licking his wounds from Wimbledon and Roland Garros, Federer must be very happy to be on his friendly hard surfaces again.

I know there are a ton of you who just can’t wait for Federer to vanish, but I have a hunch not only is he not going away, he is not going to relinquish number one without a fight.

This next month will show us what Federer and Djokovic are made of. As for Nadal - he still has to prove he can play world-class on the hard courts, not having won a title on the surface for over a year. The Spanish wonder has all the tools, but I am wondering if - despite his conditioning and his physique - he has the toolbox!

Oh - and as to Gilbert’s ridiculous slam prediction - how can anyone know how any of these players are going to perform, physically or mentally. over the next decade? I remember when Borg won his 5th Wimbledon analysts were making Grand Slam predictions of 20 or more for him and we all know what happened, don’t we?

Still… I was passing by a club here in town and saw this 8-year-old really hammering balls. I think he should be able to win 6 - 8 slams starting around the year 2020. Any takers?

a little off topic but as i couldn’t find any suitable thread for this post … how about JM Del Potro’s back to back clay titles? Amazing thing for a 19 year old! who was the last teenager to do something like that? I think it was Nole.

i like nadal but it would be nice to see somebody challenge him on clay at roland garros. maybe Del Potro’s the man? obviously federer is not the one to do it. out of the established players, i think djokovic and gasquet is capable but i can’t see anybody else.

maybe the tennis gods have already hatched a plan with 19 yos like Del Potro and Gulbis coming through. it’ll be interesting to see how nadal responds to somebody challenging him, given that he’s been so good at applying pressure to federer in his career to date. it’ll be interesting to see when the hunter becomes the hunted. tennis doesn’t pause to take a breath

NADAL WON BACK TO BACK TITLES IN CLAYS WHEN HE WAS 19

I think it was Monte Carlo and Barcelona. He has won both tournaments 4 times in a row

Gilbert’s comment on Nadal’s Grand Slam Total had to do with his already having 5 in the bank by age 22, whereas Federer at the same age had just one. The assessment had to do with the age range: Gilbert pointed out history says the optimum time frame for winning Grand Slams is 22-26, leading him to say “if Nadal stays healthy” (and he did qualify it with this phrase) and manages to win two Majors a year for that five year period of 22-26, that would add ten to his existing total of five. But as a good friend pointed out to me, it’s not so much about years or age as it is about “mileage” on, or in, your body. Nadal’s got a lot more tennis in his legs by this age than Federer at the same stage. That’s what will eventually take it’s toll. The upside for Nadal is that it’s clear he’ll dominate The French Open in the same way Sampras & Federer dominated Wimbledon. And since Nadal has show such effectiveness at Wimbledon, he could do the Borg thing and rattle up most of his Majors at those two events, and the softer nature of the surfaces will be a lot kinder to his body. But I have a tough time thinking he’ll retire with 15 or 16 Grand Slams.

One thing both Cahill & Gilbert said during that same ESPN broadcast was they both believe it’s much more likely that Nadal will end up with the Career Grand Slam than Federer. They believe Federer’s chances of winning The French are just about done, whereas Nadal’s got more years to take the remaining two at least once.

One interesting thing about Djokovic came up in Kamakshi Tandon’s blog at Tennis Magazine’s website. Djokovic had said he didn’t watch very much of the Wimbledon Final but had heard it was a “good match”. But Neil Harman - who covers tennis for The London Times - reported that Djokovic did indeed watch the match, and sent a text message to his publicist Benito Perez-Barbadillo (who is also Nadal’s publicist) during the match. The text from Djokovic was “I have a lot to learn”. If this is true, then more power to him. Maybe losing early at Wimbledon taught him enough that more work and less boasting will get him to where he wants to go.

no one spoke of federer retiring or taking a break from tennis until bjorn ‘mouth piece’ borg went on his pre wimbledon rant and hypothesized that federer might retire cos the pressure of being #1 would get to him.

fed’s clearly stated that he wants to play into his thirties if his health stands up so why would that change? he barely lost wimbledon to nadal. he’s got lots more to give.

Fed’s far from done. Losing once in a very tight Wimby final does not spell doom and gloom for him. He’ll have to share the spotlight more, but so what. He’s still got majors in him. I actually think that the DCII surface at the USO is Roger’s best. The ball tends to stay low and it rewards excellent ball striking. Roger has at least a 50-50 shot of winning the Open. If he can win in Beijing, I think it will definitely give him the confidence he needs going into the US Open. I think that only Djokovic has the game to derail Roger on the USO surface.

ferix,

“maybe the tennis gods have already hatched a plan with 19 yos like Del Potro and Gulbis coming through.” - don’t forget Cillic too. These three have great potential; I hope to see them fill it!

roddick winning another slam?
no way!

juju:
The Roddick critics said he couldn’t beat any of the top 3 and he’s proved them wrong, so maybe he’ll prove you wrong too. Never count anyone out — who would have thought Schuettler would make it to the Wimby SFs. Where there’s life, there’s hope. We’ll just have to wait and see won’t we. Agassi made a huge comeback at 29, so can Roddick.

Nadal could win more slams than Federer. I would not make a career by doubting the guy, but I also agree about the mileage comment. The other thing about sports is that there is always someone trying to take your spot. Del Potro may not be the guy to make a serious run at Nadal on clay, but sooner or later someone will start winning a lot on clay and challenge Nadal there too. All time records are hard to set precisely because of mileage, other hungry players and of course luck/the unexpected. I think on the all time accomplishments list there is a big gap between the guys with 8 slams and the guys with more than 8. Nadal can easily get to 8 and then it is realistic to think beyond.

The fact that there are many players who can actually put up a fight on hard courts is probably more dangerous for Nadal than Federer….. I dont see Nadal reaching the semifinals at the Rogers Cup.

I got Nadal spam in my inbox!

Only an idiot will put roddick and agassi at the same level. Roddick plays one of the dumbest games on the court. Agassi’s comeback was based on a very smart game on the court with two of the greatest coaches helping him plan that.

Donkey will remain a donkey unless he begs Gilbert to pardon him and come back and coach him.

Well, when you can’t beat them, ya just gotta join ‘em, and guess what R/donkey, for the first time you make good sense. Andy needs a good coach.

The guy has won 5 slams .. 4 of them on clay and 1 on what a lot of people consider to be “green clay”, has never yet made the final of the USO or AO and suddenly he’s the best thing since sliced bread! Rotflmao.

Gulbis is already struggling with Acasuso; looks like he’s got consistency problems. Or maybe he’s a “big show” player - he always seems to go his best in slams.

But Canada’s own Dancevic best Ancic quite handily so that’s Novak’s first opponent; once again Nole will have to be the bad guy and take out the local favorite.

In the Open Era ( since RolandGarros’68 ), only the following players won more GrandSlams than Nadal:

Pete Sampras: 14
Roger Federer: 12
Björn Borg: 11
Jimmy Connors: 8
Ivan Lendl: 8
Andre Agassi: 8
John McEnroe: 7
Mats Wilander: 7
Stefan Edberg: 6
Boris Becker: 6

Nadal has won 5 GS and he is 22 years and one month old.

This is the GS that the above players won with Nadal’s age ( 22 years 1 month ) :

Pete Sampras: 2
Roger Federer: 1
Björn Borg: 6
Jimmy Connors: 3
Ivan Lendl: 0
Andre Agassi: 0
John McEnroe: 2
Mats Wilander: 4
Stefan Edberg: 2
Boris Becker: 4

Interestingly enough, the three players among them that won more GS at such a young age ( Borg, Wilander and Becker ) failed to win many GS after 25 years of age.

Borg won his 11th and last GS when he was 25. He retired when he was 27.

Wilander won his 7th and last GS when he was 24 (few days after his 24th birthday indeed). He retired at 26, then came back at 29 and finally retired again when he was 32.

Becker won his 5th GS when he was 23 years and two months and after that he could only win one more GS, the AO’96 when he was 28 years old. He retired at 31.

So you’ll never know what will happen. If you think that Nadal has already won 5 GS when he just turn 22, you would think that he will end up with more than 10 GS. But look at Borg, Wilander and Becker. You’ll never know how it will unfold.

Another curious thing is the similarities between Federer and Sampras “timing”:

Ten years ago, Sampras was turning 27 years old, just like Federer now. This is what Sampras achieved at that age:

Australian Open: 2
RolandGarros: 0
Wimbledon: 5
USOPEN: 4
Masters Cup: 4
ATP Tournaments: 55
Years-End-Nº1: 5

This is Federer’s:

Australian Open: 3
RolandGarros: 0
Wimbledon: 5
USOPEN: 4
Masters Cup: 4
ATP Tournaments: 55
Years-End-Nº1: 4

Isn’t it just amazing?

Er, can’t seem to type: in the above first paragraph “go” s/b “do” and in the second paragraph “best” s/b “beat”.

And now Acasuso is serving for it…looks like the Latvian with so much potential will be going home tonight.

matt - those are some great stats; thanks for posting them. i am not even one who believes in all this GOAT talk, but still, it’s pretty cool to see it all laid out like that. nice of you to take the time to do it.

It’s weird. You’d think that the USTA wouldn’t put their money behind a donkey. Then again, people purchased pet rocks so anything’s possible.

Hard to say what Andy will show up this hardcourt season or at the USO. Andy played some pretty good matches the last couple of times he played Fed at the Open. He seemed to keep the matches close but couldn’t win the big points in the tie-breaks.

Who’s to say that Andy won’t have a bit of a late career renaissance. I hope he wins another major. Maybe he’ll find a way to hit his forehand a little flatter. I think this more than anything has caused led to some his failures.

jane, I don’t believe in the GOAT thing neither.

I’ve been playing tennis for so long and technology changed the game so much that now it is a totally different game than it was 40 years ago.

It is even a totally different game than it was only 10 years ago.

I played with Jack Kramer’s wood racket when I was young. It was such a beautiful game back then in the sixties.

You could not make winners from the baseline with those wood rackets, so to win a point you had to do a lot more.

In 1967 Wilson released the Wilson T-2000 steel racket.

I proved it. You could hit with more power, but I prefered the “touch” of the wood, so I went back to my wood racket.

Many of the pros back then proved the Wilson T-2000, but most of them went back to wood as well. ( The young Jimmy Connors was almost the only top player that played many, many years with the Wilson T-2000).

In 1976 Head released the big-head Prince, and at the end of the seventies it started the graphite rackets.

This was a huge change to the game. Amateur players changed rapidly to these new technology, and a bit later the pros followed them.

Lendl used his graphite Adidas back in 1980 for example.

McEnroe turned to his famous graphite Dunlop in 1983, and at the end of that year almost all the pros played with graphite.

That was a different game. Bigger sweet-spot, stiffness, power, control……it changed the game.

The racket technology continued, but the main change in the last ten years has been the strings.

Kuerten started and the rest of the field followed him with the synthetic Luxilon-type strings.

It produces more than 50% more of top-spin so you can hit really hard and the ball still lands inside the court.

It has been a huge advantage for the baseliners, because now they can hit with extreme powerful rackets and with these strings the ball still lands inside.

When Agassi proved these new strings, he said: “it should be forbidden, or everybody should use them”

Sampras call it “cheatilon”.

It has changed the game again, so now it is a totally different game than it was only 10 years ago.

Add to this that they use now slower balls, slower surfaces…..

That’s why the GOAT thing doesn’t make sense.

You see today some shots that were impossible ten years ago, but these shots are impossible today if hit with former rackets and strings.

It is not that today’s players are better, it is just that they use a different equipment.

In fact, the most amazing thing to me is Sampras winning the USOPEN’02 with his old 85 inches square, heavy racket (and using gut) from 1980.

The only thing you can compare is the GS, years nº1 (and things like that) each player achieved in his era, and that doesn’t mean one of the them is “the GOAT”. Just the more accomplished.

I think we’re getting way ahead of ourselves on Rafa. Sure, he won Wimbledon. But who did he beat? He had a Betty Cracker draw to get to the finals. In the finals, he matches up well against Federer. Plus, his knees are almost worn out already. I put Rafa in the Patrick Rafter category: his body will give out because he simply has to work too hard to win routine matches. I think this summer will belong to Djokovic and Federer. They are far and away the best 2 players on hardcourt. We won’t hear much from Rafa until next spring when clay season starts up again.

P.S. Andy Roddick is done. Arm is shot. Can’t serve consistently at 140KM anymore. The rest of his game is crap to back it up. Feet are slower than ever.

We sure have a lot of fortune tellers around. Crystal balls, et al.

Samprazz:

Maybe Andy will still prove you WRONG. Wanna bet? That same inconsistent serve beat the top 3 this year. His backhand has improved tremendously. When last did you actually watch him play?

jane:

I don’t know if you remember I mentioned I saw Gulbis play in Vegas and was not at all impressed. He was floundering and overhitting. I was surprised when I saw him play at Wimby, but that was an exception — he’s not a consistent player IMO.

Nadal and his knees again? Why such concern? Just how many knee surgeries has the guy had? I must have missed a few. As for the tape on the knees, so what? Lots of guys have their ankles wrapped, who cares?

Sure Nadal body takes a lot of pounding, but I highly doubt his knees are going to give out like many of you believe. Maybe his motivation will wane or he’ll be mentally drained/burnt out or he’ll suffer a violent injury, but to say his knees won’t take five-six more years on the tour is garbage.

Samprazzz, just who did you want Nadal to beat at Wimbledon to convince you?? The guy’s reached the finals there three straight years, winning this year. At some you have to agree, it’s not an “easy draw” thing.

Nice data, Matt. Roger’s clearly been spending too much time with Pete! Pete’s slowing him down!

NachoF, so who beats Nadal ahead of the semifinals? Baghdatis? Berdych? Ferrer? Just being curious.

Merci beaucoup! Nikolas Mahut, for taking out Janko (Tipsy) today.

Von,

Gulbis played excellently at last year’s USO & this year’s Roland Garros and Wimbledon, so I don’t think Wimbledon was the exception. However, as I said above, I am beginning to wonder if he’s one of those who feeds off the big matches & situations?

Tipsy might be another one of those, self-admittedly so. He says he likes centre courts and big matches.

But these guys - to be in the upper echelons - will need to leanr how to play the smaller matches just as well as the big ones. Consistency is key!

Although I can see you’re please that Tipsy is out… ;-0

FEDERER WILL WIN MORE GRAND SLAMS HE IS THE FAVORITE TO THE HARDCOURTS SLAMS WITH MAYBE DJOKOVIC THAT’S THE TRUE NOBODY ELSE CAN BEAT FEDERER AT USOPEN BESIDES THE SERB. I THINK FEDERER WILL WIN 5 MORE GRAND SLAM HE IS A PLAYER THAT CAN PLAY UNTIL HIS 30TIES PRETTY EASILY. IN THE OTHER HAND NADAL IS THE NEW BORG AND HE IS ALWAYS GOING TO HAVE TROUBLE IN THE HARDCOURTS HE WILL BREAK BORG’S RECORD AT ROLAND GARROS AND I COULD SEE HIM WINNING TWO MORE WIMBLEDONS BUT NO MORE THAN THAT SO HE WILL PROBABLY END HIS CARRERA WITH 10 OR 11 GRAND SLAMS TOPS I DON’T THINK HE PLAYS BEYOND 29, 30 YEARS OLD.

Rafael Nadal replaces Roger Federer as number one: Becker

TORONTO - The ATP computer says otherwise but Boris Becker believes Rafael Nadal has already replaced Roger Federer as the world number one.

Despite losing to Nadal in both the French Open and Wimbledon finals, Federer has yet to be evicted from top spot, arriving at the Toronto Masters for the start of his hardcourt campaign having held the ATP’s number one ranking for 234 weeks.

But Becker, who was in Toronto on Monday to play an exhibition match ahead of his induction into the tournament’s Hall of Fame, declared that he and the rest of the tennis world were in agreement on who was the true number one.

“If you watched the French Open and Wimbledon, there was a lot of talk about Federer going into the history books as the first man to win six Wimbledons in a row or Nadal being the first since Bjorn Borg to win the French Open and Wimbledon in the same year.

“The winner is known now and you have to give credit,” said Becker, winner of six grand slam tournaments, including three at Wimbledon.

“In the world rankings there is still a number one called Federer but if you ask anyone in the world of tennis, who is considered the number one player in the world it is the winner of the French Open and Wimbledon.

Dwindling advantage

“There is a change in position at the moment.”

Becker’s ranking and the official standings could fall into line before the end of the season.

Twice a winner on the Canadian hardcourts, Federer faces a challenging summer trying to protect a dwindling lead atop the ranking, now a mere 770 points above Nadal, while winning a gold medal at the Beijing Olympic Games.

It is almost certain the muscular Spaniard will continue to eat away at Federer’s advantage with the Swiss having to defend a truck load of points earned from reaching the Canadian final at Montreal last year which was followed by wins at the Cincinnati Masters and U.S. Open.

While Nadal’s durability on the unforgiving hardcourts remains suspect, he has already demonstrated he is capable of winning on the surface, taking the Canadian title in 2005 and reaching the semi-finals last year.

“I am happy how I am playing but I am still number two and have the same motivation to improve my tennis,” said Nadal.

“I want to be number one for sure but right now all I want is to play a good tournament here in Toronto.

“It’s nothing new for him to defend a lot of points.”

OK WITH NO.2

Spain’s Rafael Nadal is fine with being ranked No. 2 in the world - for now.

Surprisingly, Nadal is ranked second overall behind Switzerland’s Roger Federer despite having defeated his arch rival in the finals of both the French Open and Wimbledon.

“I don’t think nobody doesn’t want to be No. 1,” Nadal said. “I want to be No. 1 for sure but right now I don’t want to be No. 1

“Right now, I want to play a very good tournament here in Toronto.”

Nadal claimed his first Wimbledon title with a thrilling five-set win over Federer, the five-time defending champion, in a match that many rank as one of the greatest final of a grand-slam event. Adding to the drama was Nadal blowing a two-set lead and two championship points in the fourth set tie-breaker before capturing the title with a thrilling 6-4, 6-4, 6-7 (5-7), 6-7 (8-10), 9-7 victory to end a match that lasted nearly five hours.

However, Nadal said he hasn’t watched a repeat of the final on television.

“I only watch some points,” he said. “But I don’t watch the final.”

And despite his success this season, Nadal doesn’t believe he should be considered the man to beat in tennis.

“I don’t think so,” he said. “I am playing a good season but if I lost the final at Wimbledon, the season doesn’t change too much.

“So I’m happy with how I’m playing . . . but I’m still with the same motivation for continuing to improve my tennis.”

Novak Djokovic is the returning Rogers Cup champion, but you would hardly know it from his first appearance here yesterday.

On the eve of the first matches in the main singles draw, Djokovic seemed anything but interested in talking up his chances for a repeat.

He also seemed somewhat insulted when it was suggested his second-round exit from Wimbledon a few weeks back may have widened the gap between himself and the top two players in the world, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, who also are here this week.

“It was a bad tournament for me,” Djokovic said. “Just nothing went the right way. I’m just turning another page and looking forward to the hardcourt season.

“I have just tried to be positive, not think about it too much. Just a bad day. You know, it was a lot of tournaments. (But) now I’m fresh, I’m ready and hopefully I can do well.”

A straight-sets loss to Marat Safin, a wild-card entry this week in Toronto as well and on the same side of the draw as the No. 3 seeded Djokovic, is what the defending champ is trying to turn the page on.

Djokovic insists there is no hangover from that Wimbledon letdown.

“I lost, okay, I lost the match in Wimbledon, which was a bit unexpected to lose in the second round,” Djokovic said. “You know, from my position, I am not really down. I am not depressed, whatever. I am not thinking negatively. I am just looking forward to the hardcourt.”

Interestingly, Djokovic’s no-sense-looking-back philosphy was almost exactly the same tack that Federer took a few hours earlier in his first sit-down with the local media.

The world No. 1, who came out on the wrong end of that one-for-the-ages final with Rafael Nadal two weeks ago at Wimbledon, could not move on quick enough from any question regarding the final that all the tennis world continues to talk about.
Federer pounded home the point that with the ATP schedule back on the hardcourt after the clay in France and the grass in England, things are much more to his liking.

“It is definitely nice to play on hardcourt (rather) than on clay or grass,” he said.

NO BAD BOUNCE

“We don’t have the bad bounce. We have the normal bounce again, and that’s good to see. I am very excited to be playing on hardcourts again.”
Nadal, the only one presumably interested in re-living his 2008 Wimbledon experience or his win on the clay in Paris, chose to beg off his media obligations yesterday and now will speak today instead.

If there is a crisis of confidence for Djokovic going on right now, he can always look back to last year’s Rogers Cup in Montreal when he took out Federer, Nadal and Andy Roddick in the final three matches to earn the tournament win.
“This was one of the touranments that is a turning point in my career,” Djokovic said. “I can say this was a tournament where I won against the best three players in the world in the final stages of the tournament.

“So it obviously gave me a lot of motivation to do even better in the future and gave me a boost up.”

Whether that boost will prevail over the letdown at Wimbledon a few weeks back will be answered this week.

Ezorra: I would love to see Djokovic keeps this kind of attitude; very positive and not cocky

That Wimbledon final was so great that we’re still talking about it in blogs weeks after the fact.

“You can make case that Nadal delivered the knockout blow to Federer in France, but I have to think that Roger felt a hell of a lot worse the Monday after Wimbledon than he did the Monday after Paris.”

This much was obvious from his reaction after the loss (he was positive after losing in Paris, devastated after Wimby) and also his post match interview. He said “Losing Paris was nothing. Losing here is a disaster.”

“For the first time really in his career he’s the one looking up, he’s the one that is giving chase in the current day.”

Not exactly. You probably meant ‘for the first time after he became #1′.

“The field isn’t catching up to Federer, it’s caught up and in Nadal’s case, it’s passed him. ”

I think one season (or half a season to be exact) is too little to write him off by. It’s too early to make such a proclaimation. Nadal may not be able to keep it up. I do expect Federer to get the #1 ranking back if he should lose it.

I credit you for your courage in writing articles like these in what is essentially a pro-Federer audience base. You are a glutton for punishment.

Samprazz:

If anyone’s had an “easy draw” at all 3 Grand Slam events so far it’s been Federer. He’s played 20 matches in Majors this year and only has wins over 2 opponents that are ranked within the Top 25 Guys in the world: Blake & Berdych, in Australia. All other guys he beat in the Slams this year were ranked below #25 in the world when he beat them.

Nadal did brilliantly to beat Federer at Wimbledon. i’ll be the first to admit - i never thought he’d do it.

Can he go on now and be the top male tennis player in the world? You bet he can.

Can he go on and dominate all te majors? I doubt it. The guy has only once made it to the QF of the US open! I’m sure he’ll do well this time, but i can’t see him winning it. Same goes for the Australian.

If i’m proven wrong (again) then he will surely be number 1 for a long time

Voicemale1,

I am glad you gave some facts or stats on the GS draws; I have thought Roger’s draws were easier in the slams so far this year. Mind you, draws have a way of opening up. Both Djoko and Davydenko were on Roger’s side at Wimbledon but lost early.

Rafa’s draw in Toronto is definitely tougher than Roger’s on paper - but if there are more upsets, it may open up too.

BTW, on July 20th I posted regarding Novak’s text message (though I had thought it was to his coach) and then you posted the same information on the 21st - with an addedum - you mentioned that you read that Novak said he *didn’t* watch much of the Wimbledon final on another Tennis blog, but I have a question: did that blog say the source of its information? I am inclined to believe Harman at the Times over a blog, but am curious nonetheless.

I think federer deserves the world no 1 because his 12 month record is still:

US Open Champion, Masters Cup Champion, Aus Open Semifinalist, Roland Garros Runner Up, Wimbledon Runner Up

Nadal is:

Non-factor in US Open and Masters Cup, Aus Open Semifinalist, Roland Garros Champion, Wimbledon Champion

They’re close but Federer still comes out on top in terms of results and consistency. If he repeats his results in the Hard Court season and adds an Olympic Gold to it, who’s to argue that he’s number 1?

jane, i predict cilic will be challenging for wimbledon, del potro to challenge for the french and gulbis in the uso in 2010 or 2011. over the next 12 months, they’ll each score a win over nadal or federer in a smallish tournament (much like how first nadal, then berdych, gasquet, djoker and then murray announced their arrival by beating federer).

“It is definitely nice to play on hardcourt (rather) than on clay or grass,” he said.

It’s hard to believe that Federer actually said that about his beloved Grass courts. I think its indicative of how much turmoil he is feeling after losing to Nadal.

Athletes tell themselves what they need to hear. If Federer said he was looking forward to the hardcourt season after grass, it’s just his way of pumping himself up. Interestingly, if Fed wins the USO, he has as many USO’s as he does W’s. I’ve always tended to believe that hardcourts are Roger’s best surface. It has a true bounce and rewards good ball striking. I suspect that Federer will be a force over the next couple of months. If he can win the final major, he can still stake a claim to being No.1. If he doesn’t, it’ll be tough to convince anyone he’s the best in the world. I think it’d be hard even for Roger to think he’s the best player in the world if he goes majorless this year.

Someone was saying that Nadal is the new Borg as if this was some kind of insult. I think Nadal would be very happy winning 4 more Wimbledons. 11 majors is nothing to sneeze at.

As Sean said, I do believe that his game will begin to falter when he loses his mental edge. I suspect he has 3 years of excellent tennis ahaed of him. After that, he’s on borrowed time. I don’t see how anyone can maintain such emotional and physical intensity for 10 years. But, in the next 3 years, I do believe that Nadal will cement his legacy as one of top 5 or 6 all time greats.

Among other metonyms, evocation of history ad infinitum in conjunction with vituperative tirade of GOAT could be perceived as an alibi for the decline in the present or a subconscious acknowledgment of the insurmountable present or an escape from the present reality or nostalgia about lost glory or a glory that is tapering into the horizon to fade and disappear, to be eventually archived in memory of the few initiated. Viewed extremly negatively, it could be a sign of relinguishment of the battle field under the pressure of the other side that is overwhelming. At the positive pole, it could be a sign of regeneration of power that is uncannily evincing propensity toward recession, by a reminder of the wonders that were once manipulable at will.

Be that as it may, who would not suffer from acrophobic vertigo when the fall is inevitable, imminent and unavoidable?

Athletes tell themselves what they need to hear. If Federer said he was looking forward to the hardcourt season after grass, it’s just his way of pumping himself up…”

Althletes, in addition to saying to themselves what sounds good to the ear or what will get their juices flowing, say what they feel the public wants to hear. It’s one of those PR subtleties to get the crowd thinking. They are acutely aware of the gullibility of some fans and/or reporters, in general. Can you envision the headlines if Federer were to say directly to Jon Wertheim, or Bodo, that he prefers to play on hardcourt as opposed to grass? There will be huge headlines and blogging for weeks, with each fan putting in his/her two cents worth. Not to mention the speculations and/or predictions.

Athletes tell themselves what they need to hear. If Federer said he was looking forward to the hardcourt season after grass, it’s just his way of pumping himself up…”

Althletes, in addition to saying to themselves what sounds good to the ear or what will get their juices flowing in a positive manner, say what they feel the public wants to hear. It’s one of those PR subtleties to get the crowd excited and thinking about the forthcoming tournamnents — it’s their way of inviting attention. They are acutely aware of the gullibility of some fans and/or reporters, in general. Can you envision the headlines if Federer were to say directly to Jon Wertheim, or Bodo, that he prefers to play on hardcourt as opposed to grass? There will be huge headlines and blogging for weeks, with each fan putting in his/her two cents worth. Not to mention the speculations, predictions and/or stats.

Sean,
***Well, Roger Federer got hit by Rafael Nadal in the French Open final, then five weeks later Nadal knocked him down in the Wimbledon final.***

Sorry, a minor correction! I think it was 4 weeks. the FO final was played on June 8th, RAfa played Queens the next week, took the week after off and started Wimbledon in the next Monday. the Wimbledon final was played at July 6th!

thanks for your great assesment of Rafa’s game. Let’s hope he stays healthy. It might bug Fed that everyone ( including Boris Becker http://tinyurl.com/6gm3qy ) now regards Rafa as unofficial No 1. It might be a mental factor. ( I hope not).
Hard courts is Fed’s surface and he is the man to beat. I just hope RAfa keeps serving well and stays on the baseline. He can improve as he says himself. If not this year, maybe next year he should be much better on hard courts.
Greatest ever? why not! he has every element of it. But as he says, let’s just wait and see what he will accomplish during his career.

sorry for the double post - Tennis.X gave me some weird messages, about duplicate posting, hence I had to change up some words and then both posts appeared… strange remelins at work.

sorry for the double post - Tennis.X gave me some weird messages, about duplicate posting, hence I had to change up some words and then both posts appeared… strange gremlins at work.