US Open Men’s Draw: Federer Lands With Nadal, Easy Draw For Murray, But How Healthy Are They?
by Sean Randall | August 25th, 2017, 5:23 pm
  • 42 Comments

The big question of the US Open draw was where Roger Federer would land, Rafael Nadal’s quarter or Andy Murray’s? Turns out, if Roger and Rafa are to finally meet at the US Open, it won’t be in the final. It will be the semifinals.

Meanwhile, Murray couldn’t have hand picked an easier draw. So what’s going to happen?

Rafael Nadal Quarter
Rafael Nadal and his camp have to be pleased with his draw. Nadal opens with Serbian Dusan Lajovic. Then Tommy Paul followed by Richard Gasquet who he owns. In the fourth maybe he gets tested by either Fabio Fognini or Tomas Berdych. Berdych has a tricky section with Ryan Harrison and then Alexandr Dolgopolov. Coming in the quarters for Rafa, figures to be Grigor Dimitrov or maybe Gael Monfils if he’s healthy. Dimitrov enters in form and off a Cincinnati title. But on the surface it looks like Rafa has dodged a bullet here, avoiding any big servers and power players who have given him trouble on the hard courts before. Plus, playing best-of-5 usually helps Nadal.
The Pick: Rafael Nadal

Roger Federer Quarter

The second biggest question of the draw is what is the state of Roger Federer’s back? He hasn’t played, he has practiced but has he practiced at full strength? Regardless, Federer will have to play either Monday or Tuesday. So time is running out, and his draw could be problematic. Young American Frances Tiafoe shouldn’t pose much of a threat. Then former semifinalist Mikhail Youzhny. Then it could be either Feliciano Lopez or Fernando Verdasco, who could push Fed and his back to 4 or 5 sets. And if Federer survives, in the fourth either Nick Krygios or Sam Querrey. And in the quarters Roberto Bautista Agut, Juan Martin del Potro or Dominic Thiem. I like Thiem’s draw. I’m not convinced of Del Potro and Bautista Agut is in Winston Salem this week, so he might be burned out. If Fed is healthy, I think he gets through. If he isn’t – and there’s a good chance of this – then he’ll lose. It’s just hard to pick a replacement. Querrey, Kyrgios or Thiem? I’ll go…
The Pick: Dominic Thiem

Alexander Zverev Quarter
Another question mark is 2014 champ Marin Cilic. After missing the entire summer including his Cincinnati title defense, how is his groin? So with him in limbo, the class of the quarter is 20-year-old Alexander Zverev. But the German has a tough draw with Borna Coric, Kevin Anderson and Gilles Muller in the fourth. In the quarters, I’m not convinced Cilic will be 100% fit, so I’ll lean to Karen Khachanov, John Isner or Mischa Zverev. I like Isner to come out to meet Zverev, but the kid is too good.
The Pick: Alexander Zverev

Andy Murray Quarter

The dream draw of the year has to go to Andy Murray. The former champ, though, hasn’t played since Wimbledon and we don’t know how his hip is. Has he even been practicing? So if it’s an issue, then who gets the semifinal spot? The contenders include JW Tsonga, Lucas Pouille, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Steve Johnson, Jared Donaldson, Daniil Medvedev and David Ferrer. Tsonga’s been shaky, so too Pouille. So do I pick Ferrer here? Sure.
The Pick: David Ferrer

Semifinals
Nadal d Thiem: Rafa beats another 1-handed backhand.
Zverev d Ferrer: Zverev too much firepower for the Spaniard.

Final
Zverev d Nadal: I just think after titles in Rome and Canada, and with all the injuries, Zverev’s time is now.

Obviously, this all hinges on the state of Federer’s back and Murray’s hip. If they are both 100% healthy, then I think that’s the final. But until I see them compete, I just can’t pick them.

And Rafa just hasn’t won on hardcourts and wasn’t good this summer, either.

I’m not sure Kyrgios is ready to step. Same with Dimitrov. So based on the summer I just think we’ll see some different results here. And we’ll have a new Grand Slam winner. But who>


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42 Comments for US Open Men’s Draw: Federer Lands With Nadal, Easy Draw For Murray, But How Healthy Are They?

RZ Says:

The ATP Racquet Bracket is up at http://www.tourneytopia.com/RacquetBracketUsOpenATP/TennisXersUSOpen2017/default.aspx

All are welcome to play. Entries need to be made by August 28 at 11am EST (basically when play starts).

If entering but using a name different from what you use on Tennis-X, please leave a comment so that we know who you are. You can find the comments area under where you make or see your picks.


J-Kath Says:

RZ: Not disparaging the Bracket which many enjoy but this time may as well close one’s eyes and blindly throw a dice.


Willow Says:

All done RZ ….


Willow Says:

J-Kath come and join us girl ….


RZ Says:

J-Kath – unpredictability makes it fun! When you consider how many of us choose the same guys to make the semis, this is a refreshing change.


Humble Rafa Says:

Zverev d Nadal

I am flattered to learn that you picked me to make the final. The Randall curse applies. I may not make it past 4th round, you know.

Picking the unkempt one..sure. Thanks for all the Spanish love. We will all be there when the US open becomes a clay court tournament.


Margot Says:

Thank you RZ! Love the pic BTW
Looks as if Andy got a plate of cup cakes, hope they don’t make him sick…..;)


LUCY Says:

As much as I like Zverev I don’t think he will quite make it. He must be a little jaded after a stellar year and lost a match recently.
He’s not done that well in the slams also.
As for Andy’s ‘easy’ draw, I don’t think it’s as easy as it looks at first glance! There are some smart players in his quarters and ones who tend to grind matches-out, like Pouille and Ferrer – and also Tsonga!
IF Murray is fit he may well make the semis/final – but we don’t know yet how his form is. Yes, he HAS been practising by the way – and I can’t see his team allowing him to play if he didn’t have a chance…


Colin Says:

I’m surprised there has been no reaction to the news that Boris Becker has a new job – running German tennis!
He’s not what you’d call a committee man, is he, and furthermore he’s a loose cannon, always liable to say something indiscreet. He has, by the way, said Andy Murray ought to take a long rest to get fit, even if it takes the rest of the season.

Lucy, you say if he didn’t have a chance his team wouldn’t allow him to play, but we all know how stubborn he is. I shall follow his progress with all available fingers and toes crossed! Interestingly, Judy Murray said recently that as Andy loses a bit of speed as he obviously will in this thirties, he may very likely play doubles with Jamie at Wimbledon some day.


J-Kath Says:

Willow:

Thanks for invite – but…at the risk of sounding pompous – dare not start yet am so late with so many “must-do’s”.


Willow Says:

J-Kath i know the feeling as ive still alot to pack ready for Autumn equinox camp next weekend ….


rognadfan Says:

No slam glory for A. Zverev yet. Given that Cilic reaches the QF I think he will beat Zverev.


LUCY Says:

@Colin: Yes, we all know how stubborn Murray is, but after he’s taken advice from experts in Switzerland I think it’s highly unlikely he would ignore advice to rest further. At Wimbledon it was different because he hadn’t consulted experts and clearly felt the need to keep going, but since then he’s skipped 2 tournaments to rest, which shows he is capable of common sense….


Colin Says:

Thanks, Lucy, I’d forgotten he went to Switzerland. Anything’s better than listening to Boris! When Andy’s 49, I should think he’ll be in better shape than Becker, since he doesn’t drink and I can’t imagine him using recreational drugs. When he doesn’t have to stick to sushi, he’ll probably put on weight, and good luck to him.


Humble Rafa Says:

no reaction to the news that Boris Becker has a new job – running German tennis!

He is not only a loose cannot with his mouth, he is also a loose cannon with other parts of his body.


RZ Says:

Just read then Andy Murray has withdrawn. Apparently he is not over his hip injury and is going to make a decision about the rest of the year in the next few days. It’s a shame he did this a day after the draw came out, because it screws up the seed placement.

Anyone who already filled out the Racket Bracket may want to go back and we do their picks for the bottom quarter.


James Says:

What a jackass Murray is! Withdrawing at this stage, once the draw is done, tournament hasn’t even started. All he did was mess up parts of the draw. He would have known day before that he wasn’t fit enough.


Tony N Says:

Under Grand Slam rules, if a top-four seed withdraws prior to the release of the order of play for the first day of the main draw,
- the fifth seed (Marin Cilic)is moved into the open position (Andy Murray)
- the fifth position (Cilic) shall be filled by the 17th seed (David Goffin)
- the 17th position (Goffin) shall be filled by the next-highest ranked player eligible to be seeded (No. 37 Philipp Kohlschreiber?).
http://www.usopen.org/en_US/news/articles/2017-08-26/murray_pulls_out_of_2017_us_open.html?promo=media_wall

Thus Cilic moves into Murray’s quarter (and will no longer potentially face Alex Zverev in the quarterfinal). Goffin is now in Zverev’s quarter.
Goffin is no longer Dimitrov’s potential fourth round opponent — as Kohlschreiber take’s Goffin’s spot.

Murray should have withdrawn yesterday before the draw.

Federer’s quarter: Kyrgios is probably more dangerous than Thiem, Querrey et al because he will be very motivated to be the giant killer who beats Querrey, Federer, Thiem, Nadal and Zverev/Cilic at the US Open… given that (a) Kyrgios was snubbed by John McEnroe for his ‘rest of the world’ Laver Cup Team and (b) Kyrgios just squandered his opportunity to join his buddy Zverev as a Masters 1000 champion. Presuming Kyrgios is able to wake up for matches with John Millman and Malek Jaziri… and McEnroe does not call up Kyrgios to replace Raonic in his LAver Cup team.


Giles Says:

Not very clever Andy, not at all. Messing things up! Really!!!
Take a long break and come back when you’re healed. Wish you well.


Daniel Says:

RZ,

Redone my pics assuming what Tony N said, that Cilic takes Murray place, coffin Cilic and Kohlsh Goffin. But their names are still in the old order. Will the racquet bracket update with the new draw when it shaw be released?!

Hope Murray takes the time he needs and recover for next year. The year is already compromised with so many absences, so hope they all recover for us to have a fully fit Big 5 season next year.


skeezer Says:

What a clusterf–k! Andy withdrawing…. wow!


J-Kath Says:

Yep Skeezer – his injury is a real biggy – question rolling locally as to whether he has full-set arthritis (yes you can get it young – when that happens it rarely goes away).


Tony N Says:

Oops, my bad. 17th seed is actually Querrey (NOT Goffin, who is 9th seed at the 17th line). Thus it is Querrey who has actually moved into Cilic’s position in the draw. I was correct on everything else. The US Open has revised its draw, which is in the link:
http://www.usopen.org/en_US/draws/index.html?promo=subnav&event=MS

A Kyrgios-Federer fourth round is now even more likely.


RZ Says:

Daniel, they should be updating the draw but I don’t know when they’ll get around to it.


Daniel Says:

RZ, they updated it already.

Made a crazy pick, Shapavolov for QF with Cilic!


RZ Says:

Tourneytopia has updated the bracket. Cilic is now showing up at the bottom of the draw.


RZ Says:

Thanks Daniel! I don’t think that’s so crazy!


Margot Says:

Haven’t done my picks yet. Like Andy, cutting it a bit fine.


Tennis Vagabond Says:

This is a brutal draw for Fed. Tiafoe is going to break out sooner than later, he is no pushover.
Then, there are 3 current wunderkinds: Fed has to go through two of them, to be rewarded with a Rafa semi.

Considering that half the top ten is missing, that is some serious bad luck.

Hoping for a Shapovalov breakthrough on the other side, but he has a tough match to start against the young Russian and then Tsonga.


Willow Says:

I Cant see Fed losing in BO5 to many of these young players ….


Willow Says:

And as much as i would love Nadal to win a another USO, his HC season this year has been dismal, and thats putting it mildly ….


Tennis Vagabond Says:

Really Willow? Finalist at Australian open, finalist at Miami, and his only losses at those two and Indian Wells were to Roger– not exactly dismal!

He has probably got the 2nd most hard court points on tour this season.


Giles Says:

Honestly Alison, do you even know what you talk about half the time!! Always criticising Rafa, always!!


Willow Says:

The HC swing leading upto this USO wasnt that impressive, is all im saying Giles, but id be delighted to be proved wrong, and looking back you will find ive still had my fair share or arguments with posters critisizing Rafa ….


J-Kath Says:

The young Canadian and the young Russian – yes well worth a watch.


Margot Says:

So….Ferrer to the Semis? Hope you didn’t have any money on it Sean….;)
I had him going out first round in one of my brackets. Who’s your daddy?……:)


AndyMira Says:

M is my Daddy!!…Wooohooo!!…but,i’ve also picked Ferrer to semis!….Waaaaaa!!!


Margot Says:

Tsk. Tsk. AM you really should listen to your Aunty Margot and NOT your Uncle Sean….;)
I see you went for Shoutypova in Jaleps challenge tho….you’re gonna win that one. How could you not pick Simona? :( Never mind that overwhelming H2H…….:)


Willow Says:

Margot sadly i picked Simona too unfortunatly, more out of wishful thinking rather than anything else :-(


AndyMira Says:

Yeah M!…You’re very spot on!…I read what Sean predict here before i make my pick!….A’ah!..never again!!

Oh!…You’re wrong Aunty Margot!…I DID picked Simona….MissJanMiraElizabeth also my moniker Boss!…Uhuk!uhuk!uhuk!


J-Kath Says:

Did anyone see Alex the-Z-lad play yesterday? For someone who is a contender for the finals or semi-finals – he won in 4 hard sets against a “newbie”. Of course, yes, it can happen but thought Alex (Sasha) would have been more dominating…

A-M: I think you’re getting your sexes mixed up – hope you haven’t put some of the male players in the WTA bracket and vice versa? Ahem, ahem.


AndyMira Says:

JK…Oh no worries Milady!!…So far i’m still sane bout the gender thingy!…hehe..


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