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We are just days away from the release of the French Open draw. With Rafael Nadal secured in the Top 4, the only drama with the draw is what side Nadal lands on, Andy Murray’s or Novak Djokovic’s. Maybe Dominic Thiem and Alexander Zverev quarter match-ups are also intriguing, otherwise, it’s Nadal’s show and he’s my clear pick to win No. 10.
Here are my favorites:
1. Rafael Nadal – Once again dominated the clay season and, as if he needs the help, someone will have to beat him best-of-5! Not sure if Thiem can do that.
2. Novak Djokovic – I put Novak second only because he’s got Andre Agassi in his corner now. And if Andre can re-attach Novak’s head to his body, then Djokassi could be in business.
3. Andy Murray – So he’s been horrific of late but I think the first week easy draws should build his confidence back up and my gut tells me he’ll be back playing on that final Friday. (Though last year remember he went 5 sets with Stepanek and the Bourgue?)
4. Stan Wawrinka – Forget the lead-ups (he doesn’t care), if he can get through the first week unscathed he too might be around that last weekend and could win the title for a second time.
5. Dominic Thiem – Probably the best clay courter behind Rafa and he made the semifinals in Paris last year and just beat Nadal. But in Slams he has no Top 20 wins of note and we saw how he laid an egg against Djokovic in Rome.
6. Alexander Zverev – Like Thiem, I’m still waiting for the big Slam best-of-5 win, but boy did he look good last week in Rome. Quick, dry courts will help his power game, I just wonder if he goes five sets early if that will hurt him later on in the event. I know Thiem is fit for five, but is Zverev?
Best of the rest:
Juan Martin Del Potro – Healthy, rested, will be seeded but will probably draw Verdasco to play Coric to play Nadal. Can you tennis Gods please give this guy a break?
Kei Nishikori – Just one QF in six trips makes the French his worst Slam, which is a surprise given his game. But, still dangerous if he’s healthy and that backhand is humming.
David Goffin – Seems to be more of a hardcourt player of late, but I think one day could make the last four in Paris.
Pablo Cuevas – If things really open up, the Uruguayan could certainly make a deep run, that is until the nerves hit.
Jack Sock – The best American on clay once took a set off Nadal in Paris and he’s made at least the third round the last three years.
Again, if the weather is dry and hot, that should help the power players. And especially at the French, I think top guys benefit from the best-of-5 format. That said, if we do get a rash of upsets like Australia, then someone like a Theim or even a Zverev could be the champion in three weeks.
So it feels like the winner is coming from the top group of Nadal-Djokovic-Murray-Stan. But then who would have believed almost five months into the season Nadal and Roger Federer would be No. 1 and No. 2 in the points race. So anything can happen.
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