Rafael Nadal v Novak Djokovic It Is In The Monte Carlo SFs, Who’s The Pick?
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And here we go! I’ll happily take a so-so day of tennis if it means we get our first Rafael Nadal-Novak Djokovic collision in 10 months Saturday. That’s how things went today in Monte Carlo with Tomas Berdych, Gael Monfils and Djokovic all cruising into the semis before Nadal needed three to oust David Ferrer.
First up was Berdych who advanced when Milos Raonic withdrew with a foot injury down 5-2. Switching surfaces can be tricky especially for big guys like Raonic, so hopefully it isn’t anything serious and he’ll be OK soon.
What an opportunity for a well-rested Berdych now.
“So far everything is going well,” said Berdych who is into his third Monte Carlo SF. “My preparation is really good. I’ve done as much as I could, playing on the clay right after the Miami, which is a good sign for me. I’m able to execute it in the matches.”
Under new coach Dani Vallverdu, Berdych is having a very solid season with no real blemishes thus far – all his losses have been to top players. And he’ll be the favorite in his next match against Monfils who somehow blew out Grigor Dimitrov 6-1, 6-3. That after Dimitrov destroyed defending champion Stan Wawrinka a day earlier, so it was quite a puzzling result: Is Gael that good? Is Dimitrov that bad and if so had bad is Stan?
“Today, I wanted to make him run a lot, left [to] right, left [to] right [on] a lot of points,” said Monfils. “I tried to dictate with my forehand, move him around the court, short [and] back. I was like trying to play very deep and very high and heavy to tell him: ‘Grigor, you need to stay back.'”
It was then Djokovic’s turn on center and he continued his winning ways easily disposing of US Open champion Marin Cilic 6-0, 6-3 to run his Masters streak to 19.
After winning Indian Wells and Miami, Novak’s looked awfully sharp this week, but let’s be honest, who has he played? Albert Ramos? Andreas Haider-Maurer and Cilic who is just returning to the tour? So the 2013 Monte Carlo champion should be winning easily in his second home.
Nadal then wrapped up the quarterfinals avenging his loss to David Ferrer a year ago, beating his countryman in a tough three setter after failing to close it out in two. Rafa played well for about 90 minutes then fell apart trying to serve it out in the second. It’s a bad sign that happened again, but a good sign at least this time he got through it.
“I think, without doubt, this tournament have been the best tournament since the beginning for me in terms of concentration, in terms of nerves, general nerves,” Nadal said. “I didn’t play with that nerves that I was playing with in the previous tournaments. I felt in the important points I have been able to play the way that I wanted to play. Today is a very important victory for me for the confidence for the next couple of months.”
So the semifinals are set, on to my picks.
Tomas Berdych v Gael Monfils
I picked Berdych from the start to make the finals and even though Monfils is on fire right now, I’ll stick with the Czech. Berdych owns their head-to-head 5-1 having beaten him twice this year already, most recently in Miami via a retirement.
And if you look at the set scores, many of them have been lopsided in favor of Tomas.
“I must find the right tactics to neutralise his game because he gives me a lot of trouble,” said Monfils. “I’m never able to control him. I hope I’m going to play well tomorrow. It’s been a long time that I haven’t been feeling so good, and mentally I feel good, too.”
The problem for Monfils in this match is if Berdych if firing, that flat ball of his will especially hurt a guy like Monfils who stands so far back and plays so defensively.
Against top spin guys like Roger Federer and Dimitrov, he can get away with it more, but I just don’t think that works against flat-ball strikers like Berdych.
That said, if Gael steps into the court and works the crowd up, then he can win like he did at the 2013 French Open first round when the two last met on clay. But even that was a struggle for Gael needing five sets to win…
The pick: Berdych in two
Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal
In the match we’ve all waited for since the French Open, Nadal and Djokovic meet for the 43rd time. Nadal leads 23-19 and he’s 14-4 vs Novak on clay, winning two of three they have played in Monte Carlo where they both call their home (Novak lives there, Nadal has won it 8 times).
So on the surface (pun intended), Nadal is the guy to beat. But Djokovic is clearly playing the better tennis right now. There’s little debate there.
And at the start of the week I took Nadal over Novak here because I felt the Serb might be feeling some fatigue after all the tennis he’s played, but he says otherwise.
“I [have] got to prepare myself mentally for that,” Djokovic said of the semi. “Other than the mental part, I think physically I’m ready. I’m not exhausted. I haven’t spent too much time on the court. Also, I’m feeling the ball really well. Hopefully, I can perform well. I know that I’m going to need to keep the high level of performance throughout the entire match tomorrow.”
So much for that. But I’m still going to take Nadal. From his quote above, I know he sounds happy to have his confidence back and that he’s reached the semifinals, but that’s not enough. No one is buying he’s satisfied.
Rafa, an 8-time champ at the event, has the pressure, he has the motivation – he wants to prove he’s still the King of Clay – and he needs to make that statement as we approach Paris. He really needs this title and needs a big time match win over one of his rivals. This is it. Win this match and the confidence will truly return and he will really be back.
Lose here and the questions mount, the doubts increase and the pressure builds.
“Tomorrow I am not the favourite, that is obvious,” said Nadal. “When you play a player that is winning everything like he is doing, it is always going to be a very tough match to win. He’s playing almost perfect. He’s doing everything well, winning all the matches with not many problems. So when the things go that well, it’s difficult to stop a player like Novak.
“I love this court. I love the tournament,” Nadal said. “I am ready, I going to do my best as I do all the time. I know is a big, big challenge, but I don’t have nothing to lose tomorrow.”
Djokovic is the hot man and arguably the betting favorite, but if he loses tomorrow it doesn’t derail much of anything,it only ends a bunch of win streaks. Of course Novak’s real goal is in Paris and I can’t see how much beating Nadal here will matter in six weeks. The two will likely both be in another Masters together – either Rome or Madrid (I think Novak will skip one) – so Novak will likely get another shot against Rafa should he lose here. So he should come in relax and I guess refreshed.
Though like I said earlier, he really hasn’t faced anyone and now gets the ultimate challenge of playing Rafa in his first real clay test. And I mentioned Nadal’s wobbliness, well Novak’s had his issues as well, struggling in that tiebreak vs Federer at Indian Wells and coming unglued a bit against Andy Murray during the Miami final.
I know he says he’s playing at his peak, I just don’t see it that way. To me that’s just talk.
When these two meet, it’s the same old song and dance. Lots of long points, exhausting rallies and video game-like play. Maybe tomorrow some more time violations! It’s often great theater.
The key to me will be Rafa’s second serve and Novak’s backhand down-the-line. Novak can really punish Rafa’s second offering especially on clay. But if Novak doesn’t have confidence in that backhand then Rafa can get him into trouble.
So playing with a hint desperation, Nadal pulls through…
The pick: Nadal in three
Tennis Channel will have live coverage of both semifinals. The Nadal-Djokovic match begins at 9:30am ET.
SATURDAY MONTE CARLO SCHEDULE
COURT CENTRAL start 11:00 am
S. Bolelli (ITA) / F. Fognini (ITA) vs [2] I. Dodig (CRO) / M. Melo (BRA)
Not Before 1:00 pm
[6] T. Berdych (CZE) vs [14] [WC] G. Monfils (FRA)
Not Before 3:30 pm
[1] N. Djokovic (SRB) vs [3] R. Nadal (ESP)
[1] B. Bryan (USA) / M. Bryan (USA) vs [4] M. Matkowski (POL) / N. Zimonjic (SRB))
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