Federer Increases ATP Race Lead, Can Nadal Catch Him Before The French?
by Tom Gainey | April 3rd, 2017, 10:36 am

We’ve reached the quarter mark of the 2017 ATP season and so far it’s been all Roger Federer. The Swiss is 19-1 on the season after claiming his third Miami Open title yesterday cruising past Rafael Nadal.

Federer began the year No. 16 in the 52-week rankings and is now No. 4. And in the Race, he is now 1,810 ahead of Nadal and in the lead for the first time post-Miami since 2007! Stan Wawrinka is third at 1,500 while 52-week No. 1 Andy Murray is 12th and Novak Djokovic is down at 22nd.

Federer stated he will not play any clay lead-up events, so can Nadal or anyone else catch and pass him before the grass and the summer hard courts, on which Federer will again be a big favorite? Or will Federer go back on his word and play a clay Masters?

Nadal is scheduled to play Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid and Rome. A title at two of those should put him past Federer going into the French.

And with three Masters events for the taking, Murray and Djokovic could easily vault up the standings with strong results.

So as long as Federer doesn’t play, it looks like things will tighten up going into Paris.

ATP RACE (as of April 3, 2017)
1 Roger Federer 4045
2 Rafael Nadal 2235
3 Stan Wawrinka 1500
4 Grigor Dimitrov 1365
5 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 1255
6 Dominic Thiem 1140
7 Jack Sock 1130
8 David Goffin 1055
9 Pablo Carreno Busta 985
10 Nick Kyrgios 855

12 Andy Murray 840
22 Novak Djokovic 475

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20 Comments for Federer Increases ATP Race Lead, Can Nadal Catch Him Before The French?

RZ Says:

Nadal would be the favorite heading into clay season, but I’m wondering if any other players can snag a big clay title. Wawrinka always has a shot. Nishikori and Thiem are good clay players. Might be the best opportunity for them to score one of the trophies.

Daniel Says:

One big winnand it changes everything. If djoko wins MC for example he will jump to top 8 in the race.

If Nadal wins MC and Barca as he dis last year he will be a few pointa from Federer and eveb if he doesn’t win Madrid nor Role but does QF and semis (same as last year) he will be agead of Federer going into Paris for race points. With nadal as #5 and Fed out he will be top #4 seed for every event he plays (Barca he may be #1 seed).

Wawa also won MC before in 2015 same year he won the French so he is very capable of getting a clay Masters.

There is 3 Mastera and 4 players who are drooling to win at least one of them, and know they can and are the favorites: Nadal, Djoko, Murray and Wawa. Of these 4 I ammmore worried about Murray as his injury seems more serious. Djoko will play DC so his physcial problem seems manageable, as if he will play with pain regardless.

The question is of anybody else will surprise. kei can play well on clag and had Nadal on the ropes in Madrid once before injury. Thiem also likes the surface.

But other than these two can’t see the giants going deep on clay: Zverev, Raonic, Kyrgios.

Grigor maybe, won’t bet on him ever. And the veterans at best a QF or a seems here and there.

the_mind_reels Says:

Nadal always gets up for the spring clay season, so I expect him to post some solid results. That said, I’d be surprised if he sweeps since everyone else — Murray, Djokovic, and the rest of the field — will be hungry for a taste of something. So far this season, it’s been all one-way traffic from Federer, and he’s left very little for anyone else to have.

The other thing I’m wondering is how fresh Nadal will be leading up to Roland Garros. He’s played 24 matches already this season, gone deep in most tournaments, and lost a triplet of finals. There are positives for sure to take, but if he grinds his way to the end of May, he’ll need to make sure he saves something in the tank for Paris.

Daniel Says:


Think Nadal will go his all during clay. He knos that after it his chances are small to none on grass and fast HC or indoors. Plus he will be tired/spent by end of year.

He has 20+ matches during whole clay dwing and RG has a day rest (bar rain delay). He can reat later. His whole season is target on this 2 months spam from MC to RG.
He already got some decent points foratvquarter so he should go all out on clay. As ling as he doesn’t break down and injury himself.

montecarlo Says:

Barring an injury Nadal and Federer are almost guaranteed to finish No. 1 and No. 2 this year.

madmax Says:

Monte Carlo,

How so?

You simply cannot look that far ahead.

Things can change in a heart beat.

Daniel Says:

Agree madmax,

Fed may miss 2 motnhs. He can be #3 in the race if Nadal and someone else dominates clay.

If Nadal doesnยดt win RG and keep not winning on HC how can he be #1?!

By end of clay we may have a better idea, but even so not guranatee. Lokk what happened last year. People were sure #1 was a lock for Djoko adter AO/IW/Miami?Madrid/RG. He only won 2 more titles after French, Montreal and Doha. Murray surged and won 5 straight tourneys to steal #1 at the tail end of season.

Leo Says:

@Daniel – that’s so right. Fortunes can turn on a dime. Just a year ago, we were debating if Djoko would end up the GOAT. That’s been shut down for now. But that can all change in 2 months!

Daniel Says:

Yeah Leo,

Djoko wins another RG and bang: he will have 2 Careers Slams (plus his NCYGS) and increases his tally to 13. With only one shy from Sampras and Nadal plus his other records, to me he will pretty much be ahead of them. Win 1 more Slam for 14 and he is second behind Federer beyond any doubt (assuming Nadal doesn’t win another).

Just one tourney and things can change. Same if Nadal wins RG. 15 and another comeback fully on track

Miles Says:

I wonder if Nadal will put everything into the clay season and then take the rest of the year off, in order to give himself another shot at RG next year?

After all, both he and Roger seem to have benefitted enormously from last year’s 5-6 month hiatus from the tour.

Giles Says:

Lol. Rafa doesn’t take time off to “.rest” his body like the old man is planning to do. If he’s healthy he plays on.

Tennis Vagabond Says:

Miles, I think Rafa will at least skip one of the summer masters, and most of indoor. That is almost vest case for him. The real question is if he can take a packed clay schedule, playing to the finals each week, and still be in one piece for RG. Which he couldn’t do last year. This year, Rafa comes out of the hardcourt season with the most matches played. Has that ever happened? By the time RG comes around, Rafa will have a lot of 2017 miles. Don’t forget, Rafa tends to go back to old habits on clay and run laps from fifteen feet behind the court.
I hope we will have a tourney for the ages there, but literally every Big Four is a question mark.

These double-off weeks are so frustrating.

Miles Says:

TV – yes, he’s got to be careful with his fitness. From his perspective, if he plays a full clay schedule, how much energy is he likely to have for the rest of the season? If he’s qualified for the O2, I can see him attending that, as he’s never won it and would probably like to give it another go.

However, his Wimbledon and USO form of the last few years would suggest he’d do better to rest up and prepare again for next year’s clay circuit. I can see Rafa winning RG again, if the stars align, but not if he plays throughout the year. I really can’t see him winning W or the USO again (in much the same way I can’t see Federer winning RG again).

Giles Says:

Geez! All these mothering fans. Why not apply for the job of ” carer”??

skeezer Says:

^You have already filled that position.

Okiegal Says:

Fans better hope Nick skips all of the tournaments……..as the lovely Margot says…..EEEEK!!! This kid is dangerous. He had that semi finals on his racquet and blew it!! That fan who yelled out didn’t help matters either……I’m not a fan of his really….but he is such a good player and if he ever gets his head sorted out, it will be, as Brad Gilbert says, “Good night Irene”. I loved that match ….so exciting…….

Daniel Says:

Yeah Oki,

Curious to see how Nick will play next time he faces Murray, Djoko, Fed or Nadal. Specially Djoko (considering the 2 wins to 0) and Fed (if they’ll play 3 more tiebreaks again).

Okiegal Says:

I agree with Roger…..he does need to take a long rest….preferably all the way until the Aussie Open 2018……..LOL! ๐Ÿ˜Ž๐Ÿ˜Ž๐Ÿ˜Ž๐Ÿ˜Ž

Okiegal Says:

@Daniel…….he’s a scary one…..in more ways than one!! Lol !!! ๐Ÿ˜ณ๐Ÿ˜ณ๐Ÿ˜ณ

Ross Says:

It’s hard to see Rafa at YE #1. Easier to see Roger there but a safe bet is still Novak or Andy. However, should they both start to lose earlier, particularly in GS, then we could have 5+ guys duking it out post US. I wonder if Rafa will be #4-5 on the 52 week rankings by the FO. He has to make the semis of Madrid just to gain any points! He will also be lucky to be any higher than #8 at Wimbledon (given their own seeding system and last three years efforts there even #8 would be generous) meaning he will have a tougher draw e.g. any of the big 3 (or Stan) as early as the 1/4s. Perhaps Nick in the fourth round??? Intriguing times indeed…

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