I expect more of the same next year. Rafa’s done. Unless he finds the fountain of youth, I expect No1e to steamroll him into next year. And the year after that (if he’s even playing by then or comes down with another injury).

October 11th, 2015 at 6:15 pm

So much for my prediction that Nadal would push Djokovic. But I still think Nadal 2015 = Federer 2013 and he will do better next year.

October 11th, 2015 at 6:30 pm

Nice to see the women’s final with two rising stars. Hope to see more of Muguruza and Baczinsky next year.

October 11th, 2015 at 6:31 pm

I am free to say that if it was any other player, I’ll say it again, any other player but Nole on the other side of net opposite Rafa, on this medium fast higher bouncing court, he would have won last night. Result doesn’t do any justice when it comes to describe the match. It looks like beat down but it wasn’t beat down, like for example Isner one, if you know what I mean. Just look at Nole’s serving stats, first set 85% and second 80%, he is just playing ridiculously good and if you watch him well he is constructing points and adjusting his game not between the sets or games or even points, but between the shots, it is crazy how quickly he goes from defensive to offensive shot, from more top spin to just plain flat shot whether it is on FH or BH. It was joy to watch both of them playing, Rafa did his best, but nobody’s best is good enough to beat Nole on Beijing court, not Nole in this mood and on this court. Rafa knows that and that why he is happy with this result.

October 11th, 2015 at 6:52 pm

Agree Wog boy

October 11th, 2015 at 7:08 pm

Wog Boy, stop, just stop. He got smoked. You can’t spin a 6-2, 6-2 beat-down any other way. I’m sure when Rafa loses at the French next year to No1e again you’ll blame the type of clay used. I saw the match and he got thumped. End of story…

October 11th, 2015 at 7:11 pm

Agree with Tom – 6:2, 6:2 is nothing but a beatdown, no matter how hard one tries to find positives in Nadal’s play. Novak destroyed him last night and that is a simple (and obvious) fact.

That said, until Novak starts beating guys ranked higher than him, he will be nothing but another Ferrer. They both beat guys they’re supposed to beat, but only seldom do they triumph over better ranked players… The fact!

October 11th, 2015 at 7:38 pm

Tom,

I am Nole fan and by saying that Rafa wasn’t playing well is not correct and doing disservice to Nole’s game, I don’t think Nole fans should take that bite. You didn’t get my post at all, the Beijing court play is not used as to give Nole advantage over Rafa, no, on the contrary, just to point out that medium fast high bouncing court suita Rafa perfect too, no other player not named Nole would beat him last night in Beijing.
By repeating that Rafa is not playing good you are just devaluing Nole’s achievements.

October 11th, 2015 at 7:46 pm

Wog Boy is right. I think he saw the match, and I saw just the highlights as it was too early to get up and see it live. It’s great that Nadal is keeping a positive attitude in a very tough year for him.
But even with No1e hitting new levels of performance and Nadal fighting for a return to the top – the match was not really a destruction of Rafa.
This has traditionally been the worst part of the season for Nadal. Never won Beijing, Basel, Vienna, never won Paris, never won the ATP Finals, never won Shanghai since the event was moved from Hamburg clay to indoors hardcourt. Often injured at the end of the season and not showing at all. So cut Rafa some slack.

October 11th, 2015 at 8:11 pm

CF1,

Yes, I watched it this morning, I am embarrassed to say that I fell asleep last night even it was perfect time here to watch it, 10:30pm. I had tough and long day, came home, got ready for the match, put my bottle of brandy next to me and took good three sips for good luck (three times is number for the good luck), but it looks like those three sips from the bottle were three big ones since I woke up 2am to find out that match was finished, that is the reason you haven’t seen my posts after the match. Good thing out of watching the match this morning is that I didn’t have any result pressure so I could actually watch (and enjoy) their games and try to analyze, though I am not as knowledgeable as some on TX.
My point was that the reason behind 6:2, 6:2 wasn’t Rafa’s bad play (he played well) but rather Nole’s sublime performance.

October 11th, 2015 at 8:32 pm

Congrats wog boy and to all of his fans on Novak’s win today. Nobody can beat him there. He is simply untouchable in Beijing.

October 11th, 2015 at 8:43 pm

Thanks elina and all others for congrats, true, it is not easy to beat Nole in Bejing, ask Berdych from the last year final.

October 11th, 2015 at 9:23 pm

I read my earlier post again and realize that this part may be confusing, when I said:

“…any other player but Nole on the other side of net opposite Rafa, on this medium fast higher bouncing court, he would have won last night.”

By saying “he would have won last night” I meant Rafa and not “any other player”, I believe this clear the things up?

October 11th, 2015 at 11:09 pm

It is best that, Rafa not to get into the ATP final. If he does, he would just gets thump by everyone violently.

October 11th, 2015 at 11:39 pm

If I am not wrong, Rafa reached six finals this year and was beaten by Andy ones and Nole twice, not quite like he was “thumped by everyone in the final”..this talks are remanding me on Roger’s 2013, which was worst than Rafa’s 2015, and talks “Roger please retire”. I am not Rafa, but why the people feel pleasure to kick somebody who is on the ground is beyond my understanding. I am more than happy seeing Nole beating Rafa (and Roger) every time they meet, but not taking any pleasure in kicking somebody who is already on the ground, what happened with “fair fight”?

October 12th, 2015 at 12:01 am

^^ “I am not Rafa fan” should say.

October 12th, 2015 at 12:02 am

I was wrong, he lost two finals this year, not three, one to Andy and one to Nole, not really thumping by everyone in the final.

October 12th, 2015 at 12:30 am

”Tis but a shame for joker fans that he didn’t win on this very same Beijing court in the semis of the OG in 2008. Did Rafa win? Oh yes he did, collecting a Gold Medal on the way.

October 12th, 2015 at 3:42 am

Wot Boy,

Nadal only won titles this year in tourney where he was the higher seed. Any tournament that has anybody with better ranking than him he lost.
He was top seed in Bueno Aires, Stuttgart and Hamburg.That has cunt for his confidence, when he realize he was top dog he delivered in lower fields. Even Rio where Ferrer where top seed he lost (first to Fognini but in dawn).

He didn’t beat back to back top 10 this year, actually I think he only has 1 top 10 win over Berdych the whole year, so can’t see him going deep in neither Shangai, Paris or WTF.

Maybe Basel as 500 he will go deep agin.

October 12th, 2015 at 11:37 am

Wog Boy,

Nadal only won titles this year in tourney where he was the higher seed. Any tournament that has anybody with better ranking than him he lost.
He was top seed in Bueno Aires, Stuttgart and Hamburg.That has count for his confidence, when he realize he was top dog he delivered in lower fields. Even Rio where Ferrer where top seed he lost (first to Fognini but in dawn).

He didn’t beat back to back top 10 this year, actually I think he only has 1 top 10 win over Berdych the whole year, so can’t see him going deep in neither Shangai, Paris or WTF.

Maybe Basel as a ATP 500 he will go deep again.

October 12th, 2015 at 11:39 am

You make complete sense, as usual, Daniel. And your record in picking is lots better than mine at the pointy end of brackets, especially; but it temps me into playing the part of a glass half full Rafa fan.

Taking his Beijing performance into account and viewing his Shanghai draw in a positive light:

He’s got Karlovic first round, then Bautista-Agut/ Raonic, Stan, Federer…

If Rafa makes it to Stan and pulls off the win there, it comes down to a Fedal SF. A win over Stan does seem optimistic but a win over Federer, if he beats Stan, seems doable for Rafa. That running FH winner and a few other signs would have me falling for him and picking him to the Final in a Shanghai bracket. He’d be my darkhorse, if he can be called that.

Sounds like I’m reaching or definitely a stretch of imagination. He’s not done well historically at Shanghai, but this is an off year for Rafa. In Beijing final, he had a strange look of satisfaction losing to Novak during thr trophy ceremony. Rafa’s building confidence. It would be a surprise for him to make the final, but…Rafa is hunting for another big result and qualifying for WTF.

October 12th, 2015 at 3:05 pm

@ Travis Bickle @ 7.38pm

How can Novak start to beat guys ranked higher than him? – when there aren’t any? (Surely a mistake)

October 12th, 2015 at 3:29 pm

“”Tis but a shame for joker fans that he didn’t win on this very same Beijing court in the semis of the OG in 2008. Did Rafa win? Oh yes he did, collecting a Gold Medal on the way.”

Wrong, it was different court for the Olyimpics, wasn’t this one.

October 12th, 2015 at 3:46 pm

Nole hasn’t lost the match on this court i this venue, never, fact.

October 12th, 2015 at 3:55 pm

j-kath, i think travis’ middle name is sarcasm?

jalep, i think people need to start looking at rafa’s performances for what they are in themselves – i.e., in isolation – rather than looking at them as part of the season as a whole. it’s clear he’s improving. to me it was evident at both the USO and bejing. and rafa has said the same thing. so it’s definitely a match-by-match thing now. let’s see how he does in shanghai.

October 12th, 2015 at 3:59 pm

J-Kath, I know. The first time reading through that post from Bickle I thought, lol what?

Then realized the joke or facetious meaning when comparing Novak to Ferrer. But it is true, Novak never beats anyone above him…there isn’t anyone above him :D

October 12th, 2015 at 4:06 pm

jane, agree with your point about going by Rafa’s recent performances vs looking at the year he’s had. But the prescient part of my brain has been off the mark. Yet, I’d pick Rafa deep in a Shanghai bracket just because most wouldn’t :D

High Risk/reward picking. Never let me go to Vegas!

October 12th, 2015 at 4:20 pm

jalep, yeah you’d better be careful with that high roller mentality. but i do regret i didn’t put even a dollar on vinci. i’d have a spare $300 if i did. :)

October 12th, 2015 at 4:35 pm

Thanks J & J – got caught – didn’t think much of the joke – hope it was a joke ….aarph!!

October 12th, 2015 at 4:38 pm

That thought makes me sick…what if I would have had the nerve to put a buck on Vinci, or put a buck on del Potro in 2009 v Federer. Didn’t have a clue about Vinici winning but felt like del Potro was going to beat Federer…had my reasons at the time. There really wasn’t a good reason to pick Vinci…unless it was a 5 set match.

October 12th, 2015 at 4:41 pm

You guys, Stan is currently paying 12/1 to win Australia.

October 12th, 2015 at 4:51 pm

even better here, Stan is paying $13 to win it, but they put Andy as the second favorite to win AO with fairly good margin over Roger, here is the link:

http://www.sportsbet.com.au/events/australian-open

October 12th, 2015 at 5:02 pm

Seems right. Federer hasn’t been to the final in AO for a long time. I’d pick Andy, Rafa, Stan over Federer. But Novak is the pick.

Muguruza is more tempting.

October 12th, 2015 at 5:47 pm

I’d put Roger ahead of Rafa but both behind Novak, Andy and Stan.

For me, Stan is the value play.

October 12th, 2015 at 6:47 pm

Jalep,

Indeed, fRafa beats Stan and whcihc Stan shows up. Beating Karlovic and Ronic is not a measure due to their serve. But if he beats an in form hunger Stan than maybe he has a shot.

Jane,

Ref the match isolated, basically in all Nadla’s match he showed glimpse of brilliance, even in MC match versus Novak and RG when he fought back from 0-4 to 4-4. But he can’t sustain it, his seve is not reliable and he is not saving himself from holes as before. All games Djoko had BP, he broke. Nadal used to be a mental giant on saving BP’s and winning close games. He is not anymore, actually going the contrary, almost all close matches he loses in the end. He needs a big win and he haven’t got any in a while now. Until I see him doing again I’ll keep my skepticism, specially this part of the season.

October 12th, 2015 at 7:46 pm

ditto Daniel.

October 12th, 2015 at 7:51 pm

daniel “he can’t sustain it” – this i can see as being a fairly consistent pattern; any thoughts on why that is?

as for saving bps you have a point there, too. rafa hasn’t been able to fend those off as well as in the past.

however, i don’t know if that’s because of his serve. nadal still has the 4th highest first serve percentage on tour this season, and he’s winning more points on second serve than murray is. perhaps it’s because his speed/timing are off and it has more to do with once the play gets underway?

it’s not his return game: he is 2nd on the year for first serve returns, and 7th for second serve returns (higher than roger). he isn’t converting as many bps though. maybe he goes for too much? he also doesn’t chase down as much as he used to.

October 12th, 2015 at 8:08 pm

Anxiety after so many injuries in 2014 with back, wrist and appendicitis. His anxiety is also exacerbated with the time violation rule change that came in in 2013.

4th highest serve pct but that is against on average lower ranked opponents as he has been going out earlier in tournaments. Ditto on the other stats.

October 12th, 2015 at 8:45 pm

that’s a valid point re: the stats elina (i.e., generally lower ranked opponents).

October 12th, 2015 at 9:03 pm

“His anxiety is also exacerbated with the time violation rule change that came in in 2013.”
Honestly? C’mon.

October 12th, 2015 at 9:34 pm

Thanks Jane.

Here is what Novak says about Nadal and he knows tennis. Plays it too more than most.

“In terms of comparing his maybe level of the game from the last year or two years ago and now, there is difference,” Djokovic said. “I can’t pretend that it’s the same because obviously results are showing that he’s not performing as well as he did in last couple of years, and is making more mistakes from the forehand side.”

October 12th, 2015 at 9:47 pm

yeah i read that comment from nole, elina; it’s interesting that he chose to target rafa’s forehand. obviously they’d done some strategizing perhaps based on scouting.

October 12th, 2015 at 11:14 pm

Jane it is kind of public knowledge. Uncle Toni last week said to the media:

“In 2013 his level was higher because his game was stronger. He was taking the ball more forward, he was going for his shots and for the points. This season, the legs have stopped a bit,” Toni said. “But when you are tighter, then the legs don’t move that well anymore. We need to do better and I think we know how.

“We’re working on how he moves, but mostly we need to get his forehand back. That’s what he’s been missing the most this year. But recently at training it’s been better, we just now lack the safety of knowing that he can repeat those sequences over and over again.”

October 12th, 2015 at 11:31 pm

His FH will always be a potential target on faster courts going forward. He needs a big wind up to hit it, and does not have the footwork speed anymore to get ready early and smack it when pushed, thus the errors.
Additionally Nole is one of the few who are NOT intimidated by his FH, and can handle it. This in turn puts fear back into Rafa’s game, as if he can’t do that, what does he have to dictate?
ZERO.
Nole hasn’t won an all time record against Rafa in finals without knowing all this. Boom.

October 12th, 2015 at 11:34 pm

Didn’t know there was such a thing as h2h records and specifically agains Nadal at that LOL.

Only when the shoe fits it seems.

Not when it comes to slam finals however.

Nadal is 4-3 vs Nole in slam finals.
Nadal is 6-2 vs Roger in slam finals.

Even Novak is 4-1 vs Roger in slam finals.

Oh my!

October 13th, 2015 at 9:20 am

And Novak’s “record” vs Nadal in finals is an overwhelming 13-10.

Such dominance lol. (not quite 23-10, but still it’s something.)

October 13th, 2015 at 9:34 am

Nadal is just 14-6 (80%) in finals vs Roger which admittedly may not be as impressive as Nole’s 13-10 (57%) record over Nadal given the respective quality of their opponents.

October 13th, 2015 at 9:49 am

@Elina…..You got scoffed at over the remark about Rafa and the time violation thing….You are right. It has affected his game having to hurry when he played almost his whole career not having to be in a hurry. Having said that, it didn’t make it right for him to abuse the rule, but it’s the officials fault for letting him get by with all those years….his game has suffered partly because of it, but not totally, of course. The time issue weighs heavily on his mind….which puts his game at issue. I’m still not saying he would beat Novak every other time they play if he could take as much time as he wanted……Novak is in beast mode atm and Rafa’s beast mode is on walk about……..I have written the same thing before, but some won’t have it….but it’s plain to see!

October 13th, 2015 at 9:50 am

No okie you are definitely it didn’t give him the right but the rule wouldn’t have been changed, yes changed, had Nadal not become a real threat to Roger’s records. I don’t believe that he does it by choice either. The man is riddled with OCD and generalized anxiety order IMO.

Roger complained and the ATP capitulated.

It was a brilliantly calculated move.

However the game as a whole from an entertainment and quality level was better when Nadal was at his best.

October 13th, 2015 at 10:21 am

Yes, somehow someway its Feds fault for Rafa’s calamaties. This gets funnier by the poat. By the way mew, its an all time consecutive final losses record to the same guy, check your stats. No need to go off on Fed and Novak for Rafa’s downfall, he did that all in his own.

October 13th, 2015 at 10:52 am

No ” downfall” just too many injuries unlike some who are fortunate enough to enjoy good health.
Fed lost today? To #70? Oh dear!!

October 13th, 2015 at 11:02 am

So many qualifications on that “record”.

Don’t believe I went “off” on either Fed or Novak. What did I say about Novak. He’s the best player in the world and likely GOAT in waiting (as soon as this June possibly).

The ATP is a business and they made a business decision. Kudos to them.

Yes it is quite hilarious these head-to-head records you are focused on.

October 13th, 2015 at 11:22 am

Feda loss is no surprise. He’s 34, not 28. Besides, he was too busy hanging out with another GOAT,

October 13th, 2015 at 11:24 am

Two ex-GOATs.

October 13th, 2015 at 11:27 am

Apparently you don’t know Basketball. Go stat study an come back.

October 13th, 2015 at 11:49 am

Lol, at least we agree on tennis then.

Freudian slip much?

mew

October 13th, 2015 at 12:07 pm

If anyone slipped, it was you, lol. Mew.

October 13th, 2015 at 12:37 pm

elina,

14/20 is not 80%, but 70%😜
Mainly maintaing the same stat in their HxH, which is every 3 times they play Nadal wins 2 and Fed 1.

October 13th, 2015 at 1:50 pm

Thanks Daniel.

2.1 to be exact.

October 13th, 2015 at 1:59 pm

2.1 to Roger’s 0.9.

October 13th, 2015 at 1:59 pm

Or 2.333 to Roger’s 1.

October 13th, 2015 at 2:01 pm