Novak Djokovic kept his faint hopes alive for a year-end No. 1 finish by winning the Paris Indoors earlier today over David Ferrer.
The Serb, who lost his top ranking last month to Rafael Nadal, can return to No. 1 but he’ll have to at least win the ATP Finals which begin tomorrow in London to have a chance, and maybe more.
Entering London Djokovic stands 1,420 points behind Rafa, a sum that he will earn by winning the Finals as an undefeated champion (1,500).
However, each round robin win in London is worth 200, so if Rafa gets one victory Novak will need to make up 1,620 points (1,420 deficit + Nadal 1 round robin win worth 200) and if Rafa wins two, that’s 1,820 points (1,420 + 200 + 200).
Fortunately for Djokovic, he still has the Davis Cup final against the Czechs later this month. Each LIVE singles win in the finals is worth 75 points for a maximum of 150. Plus, if Djokovic does win TWO LIVE rubbers and his team wins, he’ll earn an extra 75 pt bonus for having won the title with seven live wins during the season. Make sense?
The numbers entering London:
Nadal has 12,030 points.
Djokovic has 10,610 points.
Djokovic needs 1,421 to pass Nadal.
Including Davis Cup, Djokovic can max out this year with 12,335 points (1500 ATP + 75 DC win + 75 DC win + 75 bonus)
– If Nadal doesn’t win a match at the ATP Finals, Djokovic will become No. 1 by winning the ATP Finals as an undefeated champion OR by losing one RR match and then winning TWO live singles rubbers in Davis Cup with his team winning.
– If Nadal wins one round robin match, Djokovic can only become No. 1 by winning the ATP Finals as an undefeated champion AND then winning TWO live singles rubbers in Davis Cup with his team winning the final.
– If Nadal wins two matches he’ll wrap up No. 1 (12,430 points is greater than Djokovic’s max of 12,335).
To recap: Djokovic must win the ATP Finals to have a No. 1 chance; however, Rafa can clinch the top ranking by winning TWO round robin matches.
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