My 2015 Top 10: Will A Refreshed And Healthy Nadal Return To No. 1?

yeah i could easily see #1 belonging to rafa at the end of the year. from wimbledon on, he can do nothing but gain points. also, he typically has breakout comeback seasons after injured ones: 2010 and 2013 come to mind.

with fed i wonder about his back. he’s raring to go now, but backs are easily tweaked. something like that could derail his efforts to win another slam. but he certainly seems jubilant.

January 4th, 2015 at 3:08 pm

Agree Sean. It seems whenever Nadal returns from a long layoff, he goes on a real tear once he’s fit and gets a couple of tournaments under his belt. Otherwise, for 2015, it looks like it’s back to the future with the Big 4. Old balls please…

January 4th, 2015 at 3:19 pm

VN

January 4th, 2015 at 3:20 pm

@Sean Randall:

Completely disagree on these 2.

9. Juan Martin Del Potro:

I would love that to happen. But no way will Juan Martin spend a year off tour (again sadly for him) and get top 10 that quick.

He took an age last time to hit the top 10, and look how Andy Murray- a fitter, greater winning pedigree- player struggled last year after only 3 months out.

So top 20 is a tough ask: top 10 for Delpo is kinda OTT call.

5. Milos Raonic:

Hell no!

How many times does his one dimensional game needs to be exposed by Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, Federer and bettered also by Nishikori before people click on:

Yeah I think he’s just a better version of John Isner.

To be top 5- generally- means reaching SF’s at Grand Slams, finals or regular semi final at MS and I do not see how this one dimensional player achieves that. A serve can only take you so far: what does this guy really offer thats top 5 level beyond that?

The rest is largely agreeable in the main:

A coin toss in certain regards that will likely pan out like you say in the main. I can see Andy Murray being top 3 though.

January 4th, 2015 at 3:51 pm

Rafa ending the year as #1 is a definite possibility. There has been a change in the Ranking Rules that I think will benefit him.
A player can skip one masters event if he’s played 600 matches and another one if he’s played for 12 full seasons. Before, all that meant was that the player would not be fined for not playing, but 0 points would be counted towards his total.
With the new rule, if a player skips one masters event, he can count instead an extra tournament of his choice.
This means that Rafa could replace Shanghai and Paris with Estoril an Casablanca, say, for more points. :)
Let’s see how thins pan out.
I think Wawrinka will not be a top-10 player at the end of the season and there’s nothing I would like more than for Gulbis to end in the top 10, preferably in the top 8, so that I can see him in London. :D

January 4th, 2015 at 5:45 pm

@Yolita:

No way will Wawrinka fall out of the top 10 for me. Maybe temporarily due to the maths not being in his favour post AO, but not at the YE i feel.

Just seeing how he was hitting the ball v Novak and Rafael the other day made me think damn whenever this guy is playing with the correct, strong mindset he can easily win:

His shots are powerful and his attacking game can hurt all the top players. He can dominate them even.

Last year even showed that barring FO his results were solid in the big events, top tier stuff:

– AO: W
– W: QF losing a close match v Federer
– USO: QF losing a 5 set match v Nishikori
– WTF: SF loss to Federer when he probably should have won

So in the big events he certainly steps up, goes far and if he suffers the loss it’s not without a fight.

He’s top 10 for sure- likely solid top 6 for me!

January 4th, 2015 at 5:54 pm

@Yolita Didn’t realize about that change in the ranking rule. Rafa would have a job replacing any tournament with Estoril, it doesn’t exist anymore. Last year I believe was the last.

January 4th, 2015 at 6:12 pm

yolita it’d be cool if ernie could make the top 8 and make london, but i have my doubts. every time i start believing in that guy, he goes off the rails. he beats fed at the french, then what happens the rest of the year? er, not much. sigh.

January 4th, 2015 at 6:43 pm

I am not sure if Rafa will become the No.1 player, but most certainly he will be in the top three. But what is advantageous to him is his last year’s performance which might place him in good stead this year and thereby gain many points.

Regarding the line up in general, like Brando I have to disagree on many of the placements particularly Del Potro who is not even sure of playing the rest of the season as we do not know the real state of his injury. Wawarinka has a sure problem on hand in the beginning of the year as he has to defend his Australian Open crown and that is a tall order. Still, I think he can minimize his losses by making atleast the QF there. The line up has also missed David Ferrer, ever fighting warrior and gladiator who always is not easy to be dismissed. He might make the top 10 in my opinion. And there is the dark horse Monfils who can make the top 10 this time around and Kohlschrieber too has a chance in my opinion. There is also his natural tendency to over estimate the prowess of Raonic. I think he is a player without much variations and can easily be countered on court. He is rather one dimensional player who can click only if he serves well and the speed on his serve that he generates doesn’t allow him to be consistent. The top 10 also has another omission namely Cilic the last year US Open Champion. He may not be consistent but he has the capacity to spring a surprise at the majors with his power packed game.
And finally Roger, although this Tennis Genius has beaten Nature in its own game by staying fit all this long and showing his true class, I strongly guess 2015 will be the year when he would unravel himself and show age related limitations although I would be very happy if I am proven wrong. My guess is that Novak would once again end the year as No.1 followed by Rafa and Andy. Regarding the rest of the line up, anything can happen ?

January 5th, 2015 at 1:10 am

I will trade for him the yeard end 1 for 2 majors.

January 5th, 2015 at 1:37 am

@Brando
I’ve watched Nole twice now, once at the O2, make Stan look flat footed and slow round the court. Nole/Rafa can also expose Berdych’s limited, to me anyway sorry fans, game. On form Fed can and of course Kei is right up there.
Against the fleeter footed players, who also have the ability to “muscle” the ball, Raonic suffers.
The conundrum is Andy, who doesn’t seem to do as well against these “power” players.

January 5th, 2015 at 3:00 am

Interesting article about Rafa:
http://www.tennisfrontier.com/blogs/el-dude/has-rafa-improved-since-he-was-19/

January 5th, 2015 at 3:10 am

@Matador. Thanks for the link. Yes, a very interesting article indeed.

January 5th, 2015 at 3:56 am

interesting piece matador; i like those sorts of statistical analyses, and it really puts into perspective how slowly the younger generation are coming up by comparison.

January 5th, 2015 at 10:09 am

Thanks for referring it Matador.

January 5th, 2015 at 10:41 am

@Margot: agree about the berdych point, quite true. The wawrinka- novak match at wtf I did not see, but I take your point nonetheless. Yet I still have to back wawrinka: for me when he’s on, focused his just a powerhouse of a player. He literally dictates the points with his sheer power and flat shots. His BH is probably the best attacking shot on that side in the game since you know he’s itching to hit a winner on that wing. And then the manner in which he slaps his FH at such speed is devastating. I have to disagree: I think when he’s on, these in the big events he does seem to be, he plays like elite player. One when mentally strong is just a real handful to deal with.

January 5th, 2015 at 2:48 pm

@michael: I agree. I think the only certainty for the top 3 or higher is Novak will be definitely in the top 2: either tip or runner up. Beyond that all the rest sport pluses, minuses in such a equal fashion that this guessing game is a real riddle to solve. Most views here are just gut feelings: only gut feeling I have that I feel comfortable in sharing with some confidence in it is I think both Andy and kei will move up and improve at least their performance this year. I think both are ready to turn it up a notch.

January 5th, 2015 at 2:52 pm

@Brando
Stan better hope he’s not on Rafa/Nole/Fed’s side then……..;)
BTW as much as I hate to say it, I think Milos will inevitably win a slam at some stage. He’s just so fortunate to be that much younger than the present top players and that much older than Kyrgios and co.
“Oh Lucky Man!”

January 5th, 2015 at 3:05 pm

@Margot: lol I guess. Re raonic: that would be a nightmare for me to see. Sorry. I may not root for a player but I can see their quality and applaud it. But milos is the most one dimensional, glorified John isner I see who gets propelled to an height that I find ridiculous at times. Sorry but he’s just about the most limited player I have seen in the last decade or so touted as a possible slam winner. And if that happens, it would be in the context you suggest: in the sweet spot of being younger than the reigning guard of great champions but more mature than the next generation of likely grand slam winners. He might sneak one in the inevitable transition period of the changing of guard. Hope not though: I hope the delightful kei nishikori continues to trump Mr serve, oh the balls back, thump it, continuously. Kei’s a delightful star from the intermediary generation.

January 5th, 2015 at 3:32 pm

Djokovic and Murray will fight for the top spot this year (both will have chances at all the slams). Nadal will fight for Roland Garros and Federer for Wimbledon.
Australian Open, as ussual, is wide open. Any quality player “on fire” can do damage or win the whole thing (a la wawrinka).
I would love to watch Nishikory lifting the trophy, or Stan defending his tittle.
Ithing tha Novak, Murray, Federer, Wawrinka and Nadal will be top ten, the rest…hard to tell.

January 6th, 2015 at 9:29 am

I think that 2015 will be another great year for tennis and that we will see more younger tennis players making a move to win a major.

January 8th, 2015 at 1:43 pm

what if… the legend federer.. ?

February 11th, 2015 at 10:41 am