French Open Men’s Draw: Nadal Nightmare Match With Zverev; Alcaraz, Djokovic, Sinner Favorites

Rafael Nadal was given a nightmare opening round draw at the French Open. The 14-time champion is unseeded this year and got the short end of the stick drawing Rome Masters winner Alexander Zverev in the opening round.

Of course, it’s also no easy draw for Zverev, either. But the German will be the favorite to beat Nadal. The two last met in Paris two years ago in the semifinals when Zverev violently rolled his ankle ending his 2022 season. Zverev is now back to full strength and playing well while Nadal is no where near that form.

The overall list of French Open favorites sees Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner, who are also the last three Grand Slam winners.

Djokovic will try to defend his title and win a 25th Slam while Sinner recovers from a hip issue and Alcaraz a forearm.

But with Nadal out of the mix and Djokovic still trying to find his form, this could be a breakthrough event for someone.

The top 16 seeds are: 1 Novak Djokovic, 2 Jannik Sinner, 3 Carlos Alcaraz, 4 Alexander Zverev, 5 Daniil Medvedev, 6 Andrey Rublev, 7 Casper Ruud, 8 Hubert Hurkacz, 9 Stefanos Tsitsipas, 10 Grigor Dimitrov, 11 Alex De Minaur, 12 Taylor Fritz, 13 Holger Rune, 14 Tommy Paul, 15 Ben Shelton and 16 Nicolas Jarry.

NOVAK DJOKOVIC QUARTER
Seeds: 1 Djokovic, 7 Ruud, 12 Fritz, 14 Paul, 22 Mannarino, 23 Cerundolo, 28 Etcheverry, 30 Musetti
Floaters: Davidovich Fokina, Van De Zandschulp, Cachin, Hanfmann, Popyrin, O’Connell, Kokkinakis, Seyboth Wild, Fognini, Cazaux, Mensik, Monfils
Notable openers: Novak Djokovic-Pierre Hugues Herbert, Daniel Elahi Galan-Lorenzo Musetti, Francisco Cerundolo-Yannick Hanfmann, Pedro Cachin-Tommy Paul, Taylor Fritz-Federico Coria, Jakub Mensik-Casper Ruud
Projected 3R matches: 1 Djokovic – 30 Musetti, 23 Cerundolo – 14 Paul, 12 Fritz – 22 Mannarino, 28 Etcheverry – 7 Ruud
Notes: For the current state Djokovic is in, this might not as great of a draw as it looks. Lorenzo Musetti in the third round once led the Serb by two sets on Chatrier. Tommy Paul can pose problems with his speed and ground game and then in the quarterfinals Casper Ruud did finally just beat Djokovic in Monte Carlo and Taylor Fritz is playing well. Djokovic, of course, will still be the favorite to emerge but maybe it won’t be that easy. Gael Monfils, Adrian Mannarino and Tomas Martin Etcheverry could also create a stir.

ALEXANDER ZVEREV QUARTER
Seeds: 4 Zverev, 5 Medvedev, 11 De Minaur, 13 Rune, 18 Khachanov, 19 Bublik, 26 Griekspoor, 31 Navone
Floaters: Struff, Evans, Bautista Agut, Kecmanovic, Goffin, Machac, Carreno Busta, Nadal, Nagal, Mpetshi Perricard, Darderi
Notable openers: Alexander Zverev-Rafael Nadal, Mackenzie Mcdonald-Tallon Griekspoor, Daniel Evans-Holger Rune, Jaume Munar-Roberto Bautista Agut, Dominik Koepfer-Daniil Medvedev,
Projected 3R matches: 4 Zverev – 26 Griekspoor, 18 Khachanov – 13 Rune, 11 De Minaur – 19 Bublik, 31 Navone – 5 Medvedev
Notes: While all eyes are on the Zverev-Nadal opener, this is a sneaky tough section with Daniil Medvedev, Alex De Minaur and Holger Rune. Medvedev will be favored to go deep with the newcomer Mariano Navone in the third round, De Minaur in the fourth. Rune will have Dan Evans to start with a big showdown against Zverev in his fourth round. Then, we could see Zverev-Medvedev. This is all assuming the German can end Rafa’s French Open career! Easier said than done!

CARLOS ALCARAZ QUARTER
Seeds: 3 Alcaraz, 6 Rublev, 9 Tsitsipas, 15 Shelton, 17 Humbert, 21 Auger Aliassime, 27 Korda, 29 Fils
Floaters: Djere, Sonego, Vukic, Altmaier, Fucsovics, Ruusuvuori, Arnaldi, Zhang, Gaston, Nardi, Draper
Notable openers: Andrey Rublev-Taro Daniel, Matteo Arnaldi-Arthur Fils, Ugo Humbert-Lorenzo Sonego, Zhizhen Zhang-Aleksandar Vukic, Laslo Djere-Daniel Altmaier, Marton Fucsovics-Stefanos Tsitsipas, Yoshihito Nishioka-Felix Auger Aliassime
Projected 3R matches: 6 Rublev – 29 Fils, 17 Humbert – 9 Tsitsipas, 15 Shelton – 21 Auger Aliassime, 27 Korda – 3 Alcaraz
Notes: A very loaded quarter sees Alcaraz the favorite but he’ll have a lot to deal with. Or could have a lot to deal with. Andrey Rublev won Madrid, Stefanos Tsitsipas is a former finalist, Ugo Humbert plays tough and Felix Auger-Aliassime, Sebastian Korda and Arthur Fils are no easy outs. Not on clay. Alcaraz could see Jack Draper, then Korda, with Shelton before a Rublev showdown. The Rublev-Tsitsipas match-up is one of the best fourth rounders.

JANNIK SINNER QUARTER
Seeds: 2 Sinner, 8 Hurkacz, 10 Dimitrov, 16 Jarry, 20 Baez, 24 Tabilo, 25 Tiafoe, 32 Norrie,
Floaters: Coric, Shapovalov, Eubanks, Murray, Wawrinka, Gasquet, Ofner, Van Assche, Karatsev, Nakashima, Moutet, Marozsan, Shevchenko, Kotov, Marterer, Atmane
Notable openers: Luca Van Assche-Denis Shapovalov, Nicolas Jarry-Corentin Moutet, Cameron Norrie-Pavel Kotov, Stan Wawrinka-Andy Murray, Richard Gasquet-Borna Coric, Christopher Eubanks-Jannik Sinner,
Projected 3R matches: 8 Hurkacz – 25 Tiafoe, 24 Tabilo – 10 Dimitrov, 16 Jarry – 20 Baez, 32 Norrie – 2 Sinner
Notes: For the third straight match in Paris Andy Murray will face Stan Wawrinka. And vice versa. Murray lost to the Swiss in the 2017 semifinals, then in the 2020 first round and now draws him once again! Both could be playing their final French Opens. Sinner, though, is the headliner with his hip injury hopefully behind, he’ll come in as solid favorite. His draw isn’t bad with the clay-challengers Chris Eubanks, then possibly Cameron Norrie, then Nicolas Jarry or Sebastian Baez in the fourth with either Grigor Dimitrov or Hubert Hurkacz in the quarters. He’ll take that. If not Sinner, then it’s wide open. Perhaps Dimitrov can catch fire or maybe Jarry stays hot.

The projected quarterfinals:
1 Djokovic – 7 Ruud
4 Zverev – 5 Medvedev
6 Rublev – 3 Alcaraz
8 Hurkacz – 2 Sinner

The projected R16:
1 Djokovic – 14 Paul
12 Fritz – 7 Ruud
4 Zverev – 13 Rune
11 De Minaur – 5 Medvedev
6 Rublev – 9 Tsitsipas
15 Shelton – 3 Alcaraz
8 Hurkacz – 10 Dimitrov
16 Jarry – 2 Sinner

Former champions: Djokovic(3), Nadal(14), Wawrinka
Former finalists: Ruud(2), Tsitsipas, Murray

Last year, (3) Novak Djokovic defeated (4) Casper Ruud 7-6(1), 6-3, 7-5.

LAST 10 ROLAND GARROS CHAMPIONS/FINALS
2023 Novak Djokovic d Casper Ruud 7-6(1), 6-3, 7-5
2022 Rafael Nadal d Casper Ruud 6-3, 6-3, 6-0
2021 Novak Djokovic d Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-7(6), 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4
2020 Rafael Nadal d Novak Djokovic 6-0, 6-2, 7-5
2019 Rafael Nadal d Dominic Thiem 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1
2018 Rafael Nadal d Dominic Thiem 6-4, 6-3, 6-2
2017 Rafael Nadal d Stan Wawrinka 6-2, 6-3, 6-1
2016 Novak Djokovic d Andy Murray 3-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-4
2015 Stan Wawrinka d Novak Djokovic 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
2014 Rafael Nadal d Novak Djokovic 3-6, 7-5, 6-2, 6-4