ATP Monte Carlo Preview: Barring a Pull, Roddick Top Seed

Masters Series-Monte Carlo
Date: April 19-25, 2004
Draw: 64
Surface: Red Clay
Seeds: 1. Andy Roddick, 2. Juan Carlos Ferrero, 3. Guillermo "El Mago" Coria, 4. Rainer Schuettler, 5. Carlos Moya, 6. Tim Henman, 7. David Nalbandian, 8. Sebastien Grosjean, 9. Nicolas Massu, 10. Paradorn "The Thai Fighter" Srichaphan, 11. Sjeng Schalken, 12. Jiri Novak, 13. Fernando "Gonzo" Gonzalez, 14. Martin "Berzerk" Verkerk, 15. Mardy Fish, 16. Lleyton Hewitt

World No. 1 Roger Federer and Andre Agassi are choosing to sit this one out, leaving Andy Roddick, who has struggled at Monte Carlo with a 2-4 record, as the top dog. But sources say A-Rod is likely to pull before his likely Wednesday start in Monte Carlo after playing five events in a row in Scottsdale, the Masters-Series Indian Wells, the MS-Miami (which he won), Davis Cup, and this week in Houston. Andy has already said he is tired this week in Houston, then a trip to Monte then back to the states? Looks dicey.

Roddick has thrived each year on the clay at the ATP stop in Houston, but never on the European red dirt, and this week looks to be no different as the former No. 1 has been handed a brutal draw, in addition to competing against former Roland Garros champs Juan Carlos Ferrero, Carlos Moya, Gustavo Kuerten, and runner-ups Alex Corretja and Martin Verkerk.

Here is a breakdown of the four quarters of the draw, and for you Fantasy Tennis players or on-line wagerers a look at where the seeds have landed and who is looking at emerging into the semifinals:

Top Quarter
Seeds: (1)Roddick, (8)Grosjean, (11)Schalken, (13)Gonzalez
Floaters: Goran Ivanisevic, Marat Safin, Max "The Beast" Mirnyi, Agustin Calleri, Guillermo Canas, Al Martin, Arnaud Clement

Yeah, just about everyone in this section is either a seed or a dangerous floater, bad news for the top-seeded Roddick. A-Rod will need a Herculean effort to emerge from this section, likely facing a well-practiced qualifier in his first two rounds, then either (13)Gonzalez or Safin in the third round. Not a bad idea to put some bank on the qualifier vs. the tired Roddick in the first round. No one has an easy road in this section, with other tough first-rounders in Ivanisevic vs. qualifier (Goran's shoulder always a question mark, winner to face Roddick), Safin vs. O.Rochus (they played a five-setter at Roland Garros in 2002), (13)Gonzalez vs. The Beast, (11)Schalken vs. the hot-handed Calleri (beat Agassi a couple weeks back), Canas vs. Al Martin in a dirt-veteran grinder, and an all-baguette in (8)Grosjean vs. Clement. Look for the big men in Gonzalez or Safin to surprisingly emerge from this section, or the diminutive Grosjean if he has shaken off his injuries of late.

Second Quarter
Seeds: (3)Coria, (7)Nalbandian, (12)Novak, (15)Fish
Floaters: Andrei Pavel, Al Costa, Dominik "The Dominator" Hrbaty

This section would be a lay-up for Coria were it not for the suspect back injury that forced him to pull out of the MS-Miami final and Davis Cup last week. Add Nalbandian, who has missed roughly the last two months, and this section is the Argentine Injury Report. Pavel is coming off a nice dirt effort at Houston, and has a nice draw with Radek Stepanek in his opener, then the winner of (15)Fish and Jonas Bjorkman. The Dominator is untested on clay this year, and faces (7)Nalbandian for the first time, with the winner into a grinder with a Spaniard in either Felix Mantilla or French Open champ Al Costa, neither of whom have been tearing it up in 2004. Other first round matches of interest are (3)Coria vs. qualifier, and (12)Novak vs. American serving machine Taylor Dent. Coria will be on the injury watch, otherwise look for Pavel or Hrbaty to break out the unseeded can of whip-ass on the red dirt.

Third Quarter
Seeds: (4)Schuettler, (6)Henman, (9)Massu, (16)Hewitt
Floaters: Vince Spadea, David Sanchez, Feliciano "F-Lo" Lopez, (WC)Julien Benneteau, Gaston Gaudio, Gustavo Kuerten

An intriguing section with some weak seeded players. Schuettler can't beat the big dogs on clay, and likewise with Hewitt who needs to work with pace, and every player knows that if you make Lleyton generate his own pace on the dirt, good things will happen. Henman's aggressive game is usually ill-suited for the dirt, leaving Massu as the odds-on favorite among the seeds. Massu has already reached three quarterfinals on dirt this year without beating anyone of note, but did look good in Davis Cup last week in leading Chile to a win over Ecuador (d. N.Lapentti). But we digress, back to this ill section. If he is healthy, which we believe he is, put your cash on the former French winner Kuerten in this section: Guga faces (4)Schuettler in his opener (who he has won 3 of 4 meetings against), then a qualifier, and it will probably only get better from there. Other opening round matches of note are (6)Henman vs. Spadea (Vincenzo a semifinalist here last year), (9)Massu vs. Flavio "Of the Day" Saretta, and the big-hitting French (WC)Benneteau vs. Gaudio.

Bottom Quarter
Seeds: (2)Ferrero, (5)Moya, (10)Srichaphan, (14)Verkerk
Floaters: Tommy Haas, Juan Ignacio Chela, James Blake, Tommy Robredo, Alex Corretja

As an unseeded player, this is the section of the draw you didn't want to land in. Former No. 1s and Roland Garros winners Ferrero and Moya, runners-up Corretja and Verkerk, and a sprinkling of unseeded dirt specialists make this section the must-see in the early rounds. First round match-ups of note are (2)Ferrero vs. Corretja in an all-Spanish show-courter, (10)Srichaphan vs. Chela (head to the bank, mortgage the house, hit the on-line betting site and put it all on Chela against the clay-challenged Thai while the odds are still good), and (14)Verkerk vs. Blake (Blake leads their meetings 2-1, though all on hardcourt). Ferrero leads Corretja 4-1 in their meetings, though four of the five meetings have gone three sets. If J.C. can get past the greying Corretja, his draw opens up nicely, with a likely Ferrero vs. Moya quarterfinal meeting.

Don't be surprised to be surprised when the semifinals roll around, with potential (3)Coria vs. Safin and (2)Ferrero vs. Kuerten meetings looking like possibilities.

Richard Vach (rvach@comcast.net) is a senior writer for Tennis-X.com.