2004 French Open Preview: Injuries, Untested Superstars

Defending champ Juan Carlos Ferrero is among the number of injury question marks going into this year's Roland Garros, with his wrist problem making him a prime candidate for a pull from the draw even before he steps on the red dirt for his opening match. Add the fragile Guillermo Coria, who has at times this season been hampered by groin injuries, and former three-time champ Gustavo Kuerten with the bad hip, and this year's title is up for grabs for another possible first-time winner.

One former winner looking to take advantage of the situation is Carlos Moya who has been impressive this year with three titles in five finals, including dirt wins at Acapulco and the Masters Series-Rome. The Spaniard, a winner at Roland Garros in 1998, is on the opposite side of the draw to world No. 1 Roger Federer, who announced himself as a contender two weeks ago with the Masters Series-Hamburg title.

Throw into the mix world No. 2 Andy Roddick and former winner Andre Agassi, who between them blew off almost the entire European claycourt lead-up to the French. With the injuries, dangerous floaters and untested superstars, this year's Roland Garros is the most unpredictable since...well, Martin Verkerk reached the final last year.

Here a look at the breakdown of the four sections of the draw for the 2004 French Open:

Top Quarter
Seeds: (1)Roger Federer, (8)David Nalbandian, (10)Sebastien Grosjean, (15)Sjeng Schalken, (20)Marat Safin, (23)Feliciano Lopez, (25)Ivan Ljubicic, (28)Gustavo "Guga" Kuerten
Floaters: Felix Mantilla, Agustin Calleri, David Sanchez, Richard Gasquet

A tough-looking section at first glance, but don't be fooled, this section has few dangerous floaters and world No. 1 Roger Federer has been gifted with an easy road through the first few rounds. Club Fed will face a qualifier, then it's the winner of the sporadic Thierry Ascione and the injured (hand) Nicolas Kiefer, then (28)Guga who has little self-confidence after battling his hip injury this year. (10)Grosjean has a pretty nice start, likely facing two qualifiers before a tough match-up with (20)Safin or Mantilla. A pleasant draw was also gifted to (8)Nalbandian, who could meeting up in the fourth round with either (10)Grosjean or (20)Safin. A tough section, but few challenges until the fourth round.

Second Quarter
Seeds: (4)Juan Carlos Ferrero, (7)Rainer Schuettler, (12)Lleyton Hewitt, (14)Jiri Novak, (19)Martin "Berzerk" Verkerk, (24)Jonas Bjorkman, (26)Al Costa, (29)Max "The Beast" Mirnyi
Floaters: Tommy Haas, David Ferrer, Taylor Dent, Thomas Enqvist, Guillermo Canas, Gaston Gaudio, Xavier "X-Man" Malisse

This is the section for the opportunists, with (7)Schuettler or (12)Hewitt in the bottom half of the section, and the host of floaters in the top with an opportunity to bust out into the quarterfinals. Count (4)Ferrero out with the wrist injury that has kept him out of action the last couple weeks, with his coach saying he might pull before his first round match (if he does play -- run, don't walk, to your nearest on-line betting terminal). (7)Schuettler, who prior to 2004 hadn't realized he could play on clay, finds himself in a real nice position with Malisse in the first round (the German has won their last three meetings), then a qualifier, but then a tester against the hot-and-cold former Roland Garros winner (26)Costa, who he is 0-2 against. (19)Berzerk's ranking will drop like the proverbial clay-covered rock with an early-round loss, which could come in the first round against the clay-competent French wildcard Julien Boutter, or (12)Hewitt in the third round. First-round testers in this section are (4)Ferrero vs. Haas and (24)Bjorkman vs. Dent. With the number of unseeded dangerous floaters lurking about, don't be surprised to see a Haas, Canas, or Gaudio pop through to the QF from this lot.

Third Quarter
Seeds: (3)Guillermo "El Mago" Coria, (5)Carlos Moya, (11)Nicolas Massu, (16)Fernando "Gonzo" Gonzalez, (17)Tommy Robredo, (21)Andrei Pavel, (30)Mariano Zabaleta, (31)Dominik "The Dominator" Hrbaty
Floaters: Fernando Vicente, Al Martin, Radek Stepanek, Mario "Baby Goran" Ancic, Nikolay Davydenko

(3)Coria and (5)Moya, who many would name as the top two threats to win this year in Roland Garros, inhabit the third quarter with a host of mid-level claycourt experts. Whoever comes out of this section will be battle-ready, especially with the top seeds facing early-round testers. (3)Coria faces the Russian Davydenko, who has found his footing on the dirt in 2004 with wins over Zabaleta, Corretja, Pavel, Schuettler and Gonzalez among others. If Coria passes his first hurdle, a third-round tester awaits in countryman (30)Zabaleta, who extended El Mago to five sets last year at Roland Garros. Speaking of countrymen, (5)Moya is looking at an interesting match-up in the second round against Vicente. Moya has won all 10 of their career meetings, but six have gone three sets of more -- that says Vicente is due. No one beats Fernando Vicente 11 times in a row! Besides Coria-Davydenko, other tough first-rounders in this section are (17)Robredo vs. A.Martin in an all-ESP, and Chileans (11)Massu and (16)Gonzo facing qualifiers, which could get tricky.

Bottom Quarter
Seeds: (2)Andy Roddick, (6)Andre Agassi, (9)Tim Henman, (13)Paradorn Srichaphan, (18)Mark Philippoussis, (22)Juan Ignacio Chela, (27)Vince Spadea, (32)Arnaud Clement
Floaters: Luis "Me So" Horna, Cyril Saulnier, Tomas Berdych, Alex Corretja, Fabrice Santoro, Todd Martin
Players to Watch Because They are Absolutely Horrible on Clay: Greg Rusedski, Jan-Michael Gambill, (13)Paradorn Srichaphan, Alexander Popp

Call this the Aging American Section (Agassi, Spadea, Martin), or the Question Mark Section (Roddick, Agassi). (2)Roddick's event could last all of one round against Todd Martin, whose eight career titles include two on clay, among them the much-vaunted Barcelona title in 1998 (TM and Ivan Lendl are the only Americans to win in Barcelona in the last 30 years). (6)Agassi, whose only French preparation was a first-round take-the-guarantee-money-and-run loss at St. Poelten, will face a battle-seasoned qualifier in the first round, then possibly (27)Spadea in an all-American third round. Other tough first-rounders in this section are (18)Philippoussis vs. Me So, (9)Henman vs. Saulnier, (13)Srichaphan vs. Berdych (money to be made on this match-up), and (32)Clement vs. Santoro in what will be an entertaining slice-and-dice affair for the French crowd.

Past champs in the draw are Ferrero (2003), Costa (2002), Kuerten (2001-00,'97), Agassi (1999), and Moya (1998).

Richard Vach (rvach@comcast.net) is a senior writer for Tennis-X.com