ATP Indian Wells Preview: The Rog and Rafa Show

Posted on March 9, 2006

Since world No. 1 Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal won almost all of the 2005 Masters Series events between them, except for the MS-Paris which neither of them played, who do you think are the favorites to reach the final of the first 2006 Masters Series event this week in Indian Wells?

Eighteen of the Top 20 on the ATP Rankings comprise the impressive men's field, lacking only Guillermo Coria who takes a break to stop his rankings slide by reportedly hiring veteran coach Jose Higueras, and Thomas Johansson who is out for a few months after getting smacked in the eye during a warm-up with Mario Ancic.

Here is a look at the four quarters of the Masters Series-Indian Wells:

Top Quarter
Seeds: (1) Roger Federer, (6) Ivan Ljubicic, (11) Nicolas Kiefer, (16) Richard Gasquet, (19) Dominik Hrbaty, (21) Mario Ancic, (27) Gael Monfils, (30) Olivier Rochus
Floaters: Nicolas Massu, Greg Rusedski, Mikhail Youzhny
FOLDHERE

Not the easiest of draws for the Swiss No. 1 in the top quarter, with a potential opener against Massu who he has lost to on hardcourts, then (16) Gasquet looming in the 4th round and nemesis (6) Ljubicic, who generally plays Federer very close, in the quarters. Ljubicic will likely have to contend with his countryman (21) Ancic or (11) Kiefer in his 4th round. Other potentially-tough openers for the seeds are (30) O.Rochus vs. "Grinning" Greg Rusedski, and Gasquet vs. the steady Russian Youzhny. With the "Eh...(shrug)" draws they have, Fed or Ljuby would both be disappointed not to make the quarterfinal meeting.

Second Quarter
Seeds: (4) David Nalbandian, (5) Nikolay Davydenko, (10) David Ferrer, (14) Juan Carlos Ferrero, (18) Robby Ginepri, (22) Jarkko Nieminen, (28) Carlos Moya, (29) Juan Ignacio Chela
Floaters: Marat Safin, Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Paradorn Srichaphan, Vince Spadea, Mark Philippoussis, Feliciano Lopez

This would be a brutal quarter on clay between Ferrero, Moya, Nalbandian and Safin, if everyone were healthy. Instead it's Nalbandian coming off the ab injury, Safin the knee injury, and the Spaniards the brain injuries as they struggle to regain top-player status. Davydenko heads the quarter, with a potential opener against the hot-handed Brit-Scot teen Murray, and a 2nd match with either (28) Moya or his countryman Safin. Other likely tough openers are (4) Nalbandian vs. Feliciano "F-Lo" Lopez who regrettably has been off-form, (29) Chela vs. the Serb comer Djokovic, the struggling (18) Ginepri vs. Paradorn "The Thai Fighter" Srichaphan, (14) Ferrero vs. Vince "Ain't Afraida Ya" Spadea, (22) Nieminen vs. (WC) Philippoussis, and (28) Moya vs. Safin. This section is a toss-up, so good luck to punters trying to ascertain who's not injured enough to make an impact and who will step up in the Masters Series atmosphere.

Third Quarter
Seeds: (3) Andy Roddick, (8) Andre Agassi, (12) James Blake, (13) Fernando Gonzalez, (17) Tommy Robredo, (24) Igor Andreev, (26) Tommy Haas, (32) Fernando Verdasco
Floaters: Taylor Dent, Arnaud Clement, Robin Soderling, Ivo Karlovic

The wacky "American Section" features a plethora of U.S. Davis Cup participants past and present in Roddick, Agassi, Blake and Dent, and the draws are tough. Roddick is looking at a second match with (32) Verdasco who has beaten him in their last two meetings, while Agassi is looking at a second match against (26) Haas who always gives him a close run, with the former No. 2-ranked German winning three of their nine career meetings. Blake will likely face Dent in the second round with the winner to face (17) Robredo. Other potential testers for the seeds in their opening round are (26) Haas vs. Clement, (13) Gonzalez vs. Soderling, and (32) Verdasco vs. the serving machine "Dr." Ivo Karlovic. American audiences will get a treat if Agassi, Blake or Dent get through to the quarterfinal to face Roddick, but watch out for Haas who is the hot player in the California kitchen.

Bottom Quarter
Seeds: (2) Rafael Nadal, (7) Gaston Gaudio, (9) Lleyton Hewitt, (15) Radek Stepanek, (20) Sebastien Grosjean, (23) Tomas Berdych, (25) Marcos Baghdatis, (31) Filippo Volandri
Floaters: Tim Henman, Mardy Fish, Max Mirnyi, Rainer Schuettler, Xavier Malisse, Fabrice Santoro

The weakest quarter of the draw sees a soft road for Nadal, who will face either Robin Vik or Jan Hernych in his opener, then (31) Volandri or Mardy Fish, then a 4th rounder of little consequence before a potential meeting with (9) Hewitt, who isn't scaring anyone with his firepower of late. Lots of floaters will challenge the middling seeds, with potentially-tough openers in (7) Gaudio vs. Max "The Beast" Mirnyi, (23) Berdych vs. the winner of Henman and (WC) Donald Young, (9) Hewitt vs. the former Top 10er Schuettler, (15) Stepanek vs. Xavier "X-Man" Malisse or Fabrice "The Magician" Santoro, and (31) Volandri vs. Fish. While the bottom half of this quarter should shake Nadal's way pretty easily, the top half will test Gaudio's troubled shoulder, Hewitt's 2005 runner-up-points-defending tenacity, and Baghdatis' ability to post a big result since his Aussie Open runner-up effort.

In last year's final the top-seeded Federer straight-setted the No. 2-seeded Hewitt 6-2, 6-4, 6-4 in the best-of-five final. After an injury-laden start, Indian Wells will be the first event of the year featuring all Top 5 players on the men's side.

Returning champs in the field are Federer (2005-04), Hewitt (2003-02), Agassi (2001), and Philippoussis (1999).